Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [4][20]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a gradual improvement in performance, with Q2 2025 showing a revenue increase of 38.20% year-on-year and a 53.50% quarter-on-quarter growth, despite a net loss [1][2]. - The global storage market is recovering, with a projected market size of $165.52 billion in 2024, driven by data center infrastructure, 5G, and cloud computing growth [9]. - The company is actively developing AI edge technology and products, with successful mass production of its self-developed main control chip, enhancing its competitive edge in various AI applications [3][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,591 million yuan in 2023 to 13,397 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23.9% [1][10]. - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 466 million yuan in 2025, increasing to 944 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround from previous losses [1][10]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 9.07%, with a notable recovery in Q2, where the gross margin increased by 11.7 percentage points [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on vertical integration in the semiconductor storage industry, combining storage solutions with advanced packaging to create a differentiated competitive advantage [9]. - The company has a comprehensive product line covering embedded storage, solid-state drives, memory modules, and storage cards, positioning itself well within the NAND Flash and DRAM markets [10]. - The company is also expanding its customer base among leading domestic and international clients, aiming for significant sales growth across its product lines [10].

Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations in the first half of the week, followed by a rebound attempt, but faced a pullback on Friday. The average daily trading volume was approximately 23.264 billion yuan. Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with a balanced performance between large and small caps. The electronics, real estate, and agriculture sectors saw the highest gains, while banking, oil and petrochemicals, and pharmaceuticals faced declines [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - Domestic macro data released last week indicated resilient domestic demand. However, August exports showed signs of weakening compared to July, primarily due to declining U.S. import demand. The "export rush" effect is expected to weaken, posing risks to exports in the coming months. Inflation showed positive changes, with the core CPI rising for four consecutive months, while PPI's decline narrowed. Nonetheless, CPI has remained below 1% for 30 months, and PPI has been negative for 35 months, indicating ongoing pressure on domestic demand. The social financing growth rate fell to around 8.8% in August, suggesting limited upward potential for financing in the future [2] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI met expectations, but PPI significantly underperformed. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly surged, reinforcing rate cut expectations. The upcoming September FOMC meeting has already priced in rate cuts, with expectations of 2 to 3 cuts by the end of the year. Unlike last year, the market may price in more medium-term rate cuts following the September meeting [3] Investment Strategy - The market is currently in a medium-term oscillation phase, aligning with previous expectations for this month's market behavior. The AI-related sectors continue to attract investment, but there is a need for consolidation due to significant gains. Some funds are shifting towards sectors benefiting from anticipated rate cuts, such as non-ferrous metals and new energy. The trading volume remains strong, and while external shocks may occur, the market's bullish sentiment could keep indices in an upward trend. A narrow range of oscillation is expected until late October, with potential for further upward movement post the 20th National Congress [4][5] Sector Focus - Key sectors to focus on include PCB and optical modules in overseas computing power, GPU and ASIC in domestic computing power, and innovative drugs and medical devices in the pharmaceutical sector. There is a notable adjustment and rotation among leading sectors, suggesting opportunities for positioning at the bottom of significant oscillations [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is currently in a phase of increased volatility and divergence, necessitating a focus on deterministic investments to mitigate risks [1] - Gold's upward trend has weakened, aligning with the assessment that the Fed's rate cut trades are largely concluded, leading to increased investor confidence in gold pricing [2] - The performance of various asset classes shows a clear distinction in investor sentiment towards traditional versus emerging technologies, with significant movements in the tech sector [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data reflects the effects of anti-involution policies, with CPI indicating weak consumer demand and PPI showing a rebound as a direct result of these policies [4] - The growth rate of social financing remains stable, indicating no significant influx of funds into the stock market or a clear signal of credit expansion in the real economy [4] - New RMB loans in August were 589 billion, lower than the previous year's 900 billion, suggesting weak credit demand despite the central bank's easing measures [4] Group 3: External Factors and Risk Premium - External shocks, including geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations, have heightened risk premiums, impacting asset allocation strategies [5][6] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and the potential for increased conflict have raised concerns about the stability of risk premiums in the market [7] - The Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates a trend of rising risk premiums, reflecting the market's reaction to economic data versus expectations [7] Group 4: Strategic Outlook - The current economic environment suggests that low-volatility strategies may be effective, with a narrowing divergence between stocks and bonds [8] - The anticipated anti-dumping investigation into U.S. imports of simulated chips may reignite import substitution trends, serving as a bargaining chip in U.S.-China negotiations [8] - Emphasis on self-sustaining market demand as the true source of value investment is highlighted, particularly in the context of global supply chain restructuring [8]

Core Insights - The 2025 Dongguan Taiwan Products Expo achieved a procurement intention of 4.01 billion yuan, with over 54.1 million participants and more than 7,000 buyers attending the event [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The expo was co-hosted by the Taiwan Affairs Office of Guangdong Province, Dongguan Municipal Government, and the National Association of Taiwanese Investment Enterprises, aiming to promote cross-strait integration and high-quality development [2]. - The exhibition covered an area of 33,000 square meters, featuring eight themed pavilions, including artificial intelligence, youth innovation and entrepreneurship, and agricultural technology [2]. Group 2: Business Engagement - During the expo, strategic cooperation agreements were signed between Dongguan's Taiwanese business association and various Taiwanese and international organizations, resulting in significant on-site transactions exceeding 10 million yuan for several companies [4]. - The expo attracted 20 Taiwanese companies expressing intent to invest in Dongguan, with a total intended investment area of 85,000 square meters and an investment amount of 300 million yuan [4]. Group 3: Consumer Interest - The last two days of the expo saw a surge in consumer demand, with food vendors selling out quickly and certain products, such as wooden toys and Taiwanese snacks, experiencing high demand [4].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend last week, with the margin balance reaching a historical high of 23,515.70 billion yuan as of September 12, and the financing balance at 23,349.63 billion yuan, an increase of 636.57 billion yuan over the week [1][3] Trading Activity - During the five trading days of last week, the financing balance increased by 262.36 billion yuan on September 8, 59.52 billion yuan on September 9, 57.74 billion yuan on September 10, 144.13 billion yuan on September 11, and 112.82 billion yuan on September 12 [1][3] Industry Performance - Out of 31 industries tracked, 23 saw an increase in financing balance, with the electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals sectors leading in net financing inflows of 163.54 billion yuan, 151.34 billion yuan, and 64.74 billion yuan respectively [1][2] - Conversely, the transportation, food and beverage, and agriculture sectors experienced net outflows of 9.67 billion yuan, 6.13 billion yuan, and 2.62 billion yuan respectively [1][2] Individual Stock Activity - A total of 203 stocks saw net purchases exceeding 1 billion yuan, with the top ten stocks being Yangguang Electric, Cambricon Technologies, Xian Dao Intelligent, Luxshare Precision, NewEase, Dongshan Precision, SMIC, Shannon Microelectronics, Shenghong Technology, and Zijin Mining, with net purchases of 30.42 billion yuan, 24.87 billion yuan, 19.80 billion yuan, 17.39 billion yuan, 15.47 billion yuan, 14.72 billion yuan, 13.22 billion yuan, 11.53 billion yuan, 10.95 billion yuan, and 10.23 billion yuan respectively [4][5] - Most of the top ten stocks with increased financing saw price increases, with Shannon Microelectronics experiencing a surge of over 71% [4]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 2025H2 转债强赎与不强赎的变化 ——可转债周报 20250915 不强赎承诺期时长回落稳定，结构上以 1-3 个月内的为主。从 2020 年下旬开 始发行人设置不强赎承诺期时长基本呈稳定增长的形态，直至 2024 年初达到 最高点：承诺期普遍在 200 天左右。但 2024 年下半年至今不强赎承诺期回落 至 100-150 天左右实现稳定。究其原因：一方面，早期由于信披规则不成熟， 部分公司选择反复做本次不强赎或者一个月内不强赎的公告，所以使得均值不 高，后续 3 个月或 6 个月及以上的承诺期逐渐成为市场主流。另一方面，由于 2023 年后较长时间权益市场走势偏弱，使得触发强赎的转债也偏少，公告不 强赎的转债基本为长期不考虑的发行人故在短期内将承诺期拉长。 上周爱科科技、中仑新材、南芯科技新增董事会预案、5 家新增股东大会通过、 3 家新增发审委审批通过、2 家新增证监会核准，较去年同期分别+3、+5、+2、 +1。 承诺期长短对转债估值影响不大。2025 年初以来不强赎公告次日的转股溢价 率从 2%一直抬升至 8%左右，但较 2022 年的高位仍有部分 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market continued to rebound this week with an oscillating upward trend. The growth style performed well, driving up TMT-themed funds. However, many quantitative index-enhanced products still had mediocre excess returns. The weekly average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by 10.63% week-on-week. If the trading volume continues to shrink, the chips in high-position sectors will loosen and differentiate, and the market will shift from a unilateral rise to a range-bound pattern. It is recommended to focus on the supplementary rise opportunities of low-position sectors. The basis of four types of stock index futures contracts showed differentiation, with the IM contract having a large discount and the IF contract having a large premium. In the upcoming week with a dense schedule of important macroeconomic events, the A-share market is likely to maintain a volatile and relatively strong market. It is recommended to focus on technology frontier tracks such as robotics and AI computing power, and also seize the rotation and supplementary rise opportunities of sectors such as securities, pig cycles, and games. After a deep adjustment, the national debt market has shown rare allocation value, and investors are advised to moderately increase the allocation ratio [1][11][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Industry Index - The A-share market continued to rebound this week, with the growth style performing well and driving up TMT-themed funds. The weekly average daily trading volume of the two markets was 2.3 trillion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 10.63%. The basis of four types of stock index futures contracts showed differentiation, and the average and median returns of neutral hedge funds this week were -0.06% and -0.08% respectively. This week, the electronics, real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, media, and computer sectors led the gains. The real estate and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors had a relatively large increase in the weekly trading volume ratio compared with last week, while the trading activity of the comprehensive finance and national defense and military industry sectors decreased significantly. The real estate sector rose 5.82% this week, and the weekly trading volume ratio increased to a new high in the past four weeks at 1.50%. The power equipment and new energy sector only rose 0.50% this week, and the weekly trading volume ratio was a new high in the past four weeks at 9.04%, and the sector may face short-term adjustment pressure [11]. 3.1.2 Market Style - This week, the growth style index rose 3.56%, and the weekly trading volume ratio slightly decreased to 58.73%. The consumption style index rose 0.88%, and the weekly trading volume ratio increased to 11.85%. The financial style index performed weakly in the past month, rising only 0.24% this week, and the weekly trading volume ratio decreased significantly to a new low in the past four weeks at 5.59%. The cyclical style index rose 1.87%, and the weekly trading volume ratio increased to a new high in the past four weeks at 20.69%. The stable style index rose 1.14%, and the weekly trading volume ratio increased significantly to a new high in the past four weeks at 3.13%. Based on the CSI A-share index, the CSI 500 index led the gains this week, rising 3.38%, and the weekly trading volume ratio was a new high in the past four weeks at 19.03%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index only rose 1.38%, and the weekly trading volume ratio decreased to 27.65%. In the past three months, the market has shown highly structured characteristics, and the CSI 500 index has performed strongly. In an environment with abundant liquidity, funds clearly prefer opportunities with certainty, driving the collective supplementary rise of high-quality leading stocks in various industries [15]. 3.2 Active Equity Funds 3.2.1 Funds with Excellent Performance in Different Thematic Tracks This Week - The report screened single-track and double-track funds based on six sectors: TMT, financial real estate, consumption, medicine, manufacturing, and cycle. Single-track funds are those with a position in a certain sector greater than 70% for multiple consecutive periods, and double-track funds are those with positions in two sectors both greater than 30% for multiple consecutive periods. The report listed the top five funds in each sector in terms of performance this week [20][21]. 3.2.2 Funds with Excellent Performance in Different Strategy Classifications - The report improved the growth, BP, and profit factors to obtain growth, valuation, and quality factors, and divided the funds into different types such as deep undervaluation, high growth, high quality, quality growth, quality undervaluation, GARP, and balanced cost-effectiveness. It also listed the funds with relatively excellent performance in different types of funds this week [22]. 3.3 Index-Enhanced Funds 3.3.1 Distribution of Excess Returns of Index-Enhanced Funds This Week - This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.65%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.10%, the STAR 50 rose 5.48%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.07%. The representative indexes of the value style sector, such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 100, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, rose 0.89%, 1.54%, and 1.38% respectively, while the representative indexes of the growth style sector, such as the Small and Medium 100, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000, rose 3.66%, 3.38%, 2.45%, and 2.16% respectively. The report also listed the average and median excess returns of different index-enhanced funds and the top three funds in terms of excess returns in each category this week [25][26][30]. 3.4 This Week's Fund High-Frequency Position Detection - After excluding funds with high positions in Hong Kong stocks and Beijing Stock Exchange stocks, funds with a scale of less than 200 million yuan, industry-themed funds, and quantitative funds, the results showed that active equity funds significantly increased their positions in the basic chemical (0.61%), machinery (0.24%), and power equipment and new energy (0.19%) industries this week, and significantly reduced their positions in the electronics (0.55%), computer (0.41%), and national defense and military industry (0.19%) industries. From a one-month perspective, the positions in the electronics (2.12%) and communication (0.97%) industries increased significantly, while the positions in the banking (1.11%) and automobile (1.04%) industries decreased significantly [3][43].

Quantitative Models and Construction Diffusion Index Model - **Model Name**: Diffusion Index Model [5][27] - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is based on the principle of price momentum, aiming to capture upward trends in industry performance. It selects industries with strong upward momentum for allocation [26][27]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates the diffusion index for each industry, which reflects the proportion of stocks in the industry with positive momentum. - Industries are ranked based on their diffusion index values, and the top-performing industries are selected for portfolio allocation. - Example rankings as of September 12, 2025: Comprehensive (0.99), Banking (0.969), Communication (0.951), Steel (0.95), Non-ferrous Metals (0.947), Retail (0.934) [27][28]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown mixed performance over the years. While it captured trends effectively in 2021, it struggled during market reversals in 2024. It has been tracking performance for four years [26][27]. - **Testing Results**: - 2025 YTD excess return: 4.53% [25][30] - September 2025 average weekly return: 2.79%, excess return over equal-weighted industry index: 0.88% [30] GRU Factor Model - **Model Name**: GRU Factor Model [6][33] - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to process high-frequency volume and price data, aiming to identify industry rotation opportunities [38]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The GRU network is trained on historical minute-level volume and price data to generate industry factors. - Industries are ranked based on their GRU factor scores, and the top-ranked industries are selected for allocation. - Example rankings as of September 12, 2025: Comprehensive (4.56), Construction (3.8), Real Estate (3.6), Textile & Apparel (0.08), Comprehensive Finance (-0.07), Home Appliances (-0.16) [6][34]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model performs well in short-term scenarios but struggles in long-term or extreme market conditions. It has faced challenges in capturing excess returns in 2025 due to concentrated market themes [33][38]. - **Testing Results**: - 2025 YTD excess return: -7.37% [33][36] - September 2025 average weekly return: 1.70%, excess return over equal-weighted industry index: -0.23% [36] Backtesting Results of Models Diffusion Index Model - **YTD Excess Return**: 4.53% [25][30] - **September 2025 Weekly Average Return**: 2.79% [30] - **September 2025 Weekly Excess Return**: 0.88% [30] GRU Factor Model - **YTD Excess Return**: -7.37% [33][36] - **September 2025 Weekly Average Return**: 1.70% [36] - **September 2025 Weekly Excess Return**: -0.23% [36]

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | 021-63326320 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | 021-63326320 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | 强赎触发频繁，博弈收益可观 | 2025-09-14 | | --- | --- | | 再议本轮债市调整原因：固定收益市场周 | 2025-09-09 | | 观察 | | | 土储专项债供给增多，对城投债务压力缓 | 2025-09-08 | | 释效果有限：信用债市场周观察 | | 风险提示 估值小幅压缩，跟涨能力减弱 可转债市场周观察 研究结论 政策变化超预期；货币政策 ...

Group 1 - Integrated circuit concept stocks showed strong performance in the morning session, with Shengbang Co. hitting a 20% limit up, Jing Sheng Machinery rising over 11%, and CATL increasing nearly 10% [1] - The ChiNext Index rose by 2.1% at midday, while the Growth Index increased by 1.0%, and the ChiNext Mid-cap 200 Index saw a slight rise of 0.1% [1] - The ChiNext ETF (159915) recorded a trading volume of nearly 4 billion yuan at midday [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext Index tracks 100 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, with a high proportion of strategic emerging industries, including electric equipment, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, which together account for over 55% [3] - The ChiNext 200 ETF managed by E Fund tracks the ChiNext Mid-cap 200 Index, which consists of 200 stocks with medium market capitalization and good liquidity [3]