Core Viewpoint - The company has established a fundraising management system to regulate the use and management of raised funds, enhance their efficiency, and protect investors' rights [2][3]. Fundraising Management - The system applies to funds raised through stock issuance or other equity-like securities, excluding funds raised for equity incentive plans [2]. - The company's controlling shareholders and related parties are prohibited from misappropriating raised funds or using them for improper benefits [2][3]. - The board and senior management must ensure the safety of raised funds and cannot change their intended use without proper authorization [2][3]. Fund Storage - The company must prudently select commercial banks to open special accounts for raised funds, ensuring that these accounts are used solely for their intended purpose [3][4]. - A tripartite supervision agreement must be signed with the underwriter and the bank within one month of the funds being in place [3][4]. Fund Usage - Raised funds should align with national industrial policies and be primarily used for the company's main business [4][5]. - The company cannot use raised funds for financial investments or provide them to controlling shareholders or related parties [5][6]. - If a project funded by raised funds cannot be completed on time, the company must disclose the reasons and the current status of the funds [6][7]. Cash Management - The company may manage temporarily idle raised funds through safe financial products, ensuring that this does not affect the normal progress of investment projects [6][7]. - Any temporary use of idle funds for working capital must be approved by the board and disclosed [7][8]. Changes in Fund Usage - Any changes in the use of raised funds must be approved by the board and disclosed to shareholders [10][12]. - The company must conduct feasibility analyses for new projects funded by raised funds to ensure they have good market prospects and profitability [12][13]. Fund Management and Supervision - The company must accurately disclose the actual use of raised funds and conduct semi-annual reviews of investment projects [13][14]. - Independent directors can hire accounting firms to verify the management and use of raised funds if discrepancies are found [14][15]. Miscellaneous - The fundraising management system will take effect upon approval by the company's shareholders [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillatory [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillatory [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of fuel oil futures contracts rose, with the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closing up 1.09% at 2,972 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closing up 1.69% at 3,663 yuan/ton. After the OPEC meeting announced a production increase of 550,000 barrels per day in August, the crude oil price first fell and then rose, showing strong support for the cost of fuel oil in the short term [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil market has a relatively abundant supply in the spot market, and the cracking spread may need further adjustment. After the adjustment, it will receive new support [1]. - The short-term supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, and the current market structure is relatively strong. However, in the medium term, the market share will be gradually replaced, and there is a lack of continuous upward momentum [2]. - The current market driver of low-sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high-sulfur fuel oil, but the structural contradiction has not been completely reversed, and the high-low sulfur spread does not have the space for a significant increase for the time being [2]. 3. Strategy Summary High-sulfur Fuel Oil - Market trend: Oscillatory [3] Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Market trend: Oscillatory [3] Cross-variety Strategy - Short the FU cracking spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] Cross-period Strategy - Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies [3] Spot-futures Strategy - None [3] Options Strategy - None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of July 7, 2025, the crude oil market showed mixed characteristics. Short - term oil prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with the central price likely to rise by $2 - 3. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical risks offset each other, and the actual production increase effect depends on Saudi Arabia's production release rhythm [2][3]. - The inventory structure shows regional differentiation. The tension in the Middle East may delay the crude oil shipping cycle, and the disruption of Red Sea transportation may trigger European refineries' restocking demand [3]. - The demand in the Indian market provides support. In June, gasoline consumption increased by 6.9% year - on - year, and the total fuel consumption reached 20.31 million tons. The increasing willingness of Asian refineries to start operations drives the cracking profit to expand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price Performance**: SC crude oil futures prices fell slightly by 0.24% to 502.3 yuan/barrel, but the post - market main contract rebounded 2.13% to 512 yuan/barrel. WTI slightly declined by 0.06% to 66.46 dollars/barrel, while Brent rose 1.59% to 69.6 dollars/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened by 56% to 3.14 dollars/barrel, and the SC - Brent cross - regional arbitrage space narrowed by 77% to 0.41 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Supply - side**: OPEC+ plans to approve a production increase of 550,000 barrels per day in September on August 3, but the implementation effect is questionable. The Israeli air strike on the oil facilities in the port of Hodeidah has intensified the supply - chain risks in the Red Sea route [2]. - **Demand - side**: In June, India's gasoline consumption increased by 6.9% year - on - year, and the total fuel consumption reached 20.31 million tons. The increasing willingness of Asian refineries to start operations drives the cracking profit to expand, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil rose 2% during the day [2]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory structure shows regional differentiation. The SC spread (SC continuous 1 - continuous 3) narrowed to 14.8 yuan/barrel, and the Brent monthly spread structure remained steep [3]. - **Price Forecast**: Short - term oil prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with the central price likely to rise by $2 - 3. The production increase decision of OPEC+ and geopolitical risks offset each other. Technically, Brent has the momentum to rise further after breaking through the $69 resistance level, while WTI faces strong pressure around $67.5 [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The prices of SC, WTI, and Brent futures showed different trends. Key spreads such as Brent - WTI and SC - Brent changed significantly. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.93%, and the Cushing inventory decreased by 6.72%. The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.21% [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of various fuel oil futures and spot products showed different changes. The Singapore inventory increased by 3.91%. The Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 2.60% [6]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: OPEC+ oil - producing countries will approve a significant production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September on August 3 [7]. - **Demand**: In June, India's diesel sales increased by 1.6% year - on - year, gasoline sales increased by 6.9% year - on - year, and the fuel sales reached 20.31 million tons [9]. - **Inventory**: The main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose 2.00% during the day. The futures warehouse receipts of fuel oil and medium - sulfur crude oil remained unchanged [10]. - **Market Information**: As of 2:30 on July 8, the SC crude oil main contract rose 2.13%. The Brent crude oil futures price rose more than $1 during the day, and the night - session futures main contracts of the crude oil series all rose [10].

印尼首席经济部长：印尼国家石油公司Pertamina已与美国就液化石油气、汽油和原油采购签署谅解备 忘录。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆★, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with some upward drivers but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel Oil: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The impact of OPEC+'s rapid production increase policy on oil prices in Q3 is temporarily limited, but after the peak season, if the US tariff policy continues, oil prices may face downward pressure. Crude oil is expected to have a higher bottom and be volatile and bullish in Q3 [1] - For fuel oil, high - sulfur fuel oil is weak due to low demand and eased supply risks, while low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil with a short - term bullish crack spread [2] - The actual asphalt production in June exceeded the plan, inventory started to accumulate, demand recovery is delayed, and the fundamental weakness restricts the upward space of asphalt prices [2] - The international LPG market has a loose supply, overseas prices may be under pressure, and the LPG futures market is expected to be volatile and bearish [3] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Yesterday, international oil prices opened low and closed high, with the SC08 contract rising 1.88% during the trading day [1] - OPEC+'s actual monthly production increase is less than the target increase, and Q3 is a seasonal peak for gasoline and jet fuel demand, so the production increase can be well absorbed. After Q3, if the US tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline [1] - The final result of the US tariff game may not be higher than the level in early April, and crude oil is expected to have a higher bottom and be volatile and bullish in Q3 [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the rise in oil product futures, followed by low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), while high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) was relatively weak [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is low, and supply risks are eased, leading to a continuous weakening of FU's single - side price and crack spread [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure was limited due to the coking profit and diesel crack spread, but demand lacks a clear driver, and LU follows crude oil with a short - term bullish crack spread [2] Asphalt - In June, the actual refinery production exceeded the plan by 10000 tons (+4.3%), and inventory started to accumulate by 24000 tons in late June [2] - In July, the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly, and the cumulative shipment volume since the beginning of the year decreased from an 8% year - on - year increase to 7% [2] - High temperature and rainfall may delay demand recovery, and Q3 is a key window for demand observation. The asphalt price follows crude oil, but the weakening fundamentals limit the upward space [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international LPG market supply is generally loose, and overseas prices may be under pressure due to OPEC's expected production increase in August [3] - Last week, new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs promoted the repair of PDH margins. Attention should be paid to the rebound rhythm of PDH operating rates [3] - In summer, the supply pressure increases, overseas prices are under pressure, and the futures market is volatile and bearish [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts a significant decline in Shell's EPS due to weak trading performance, despite relatively strong cash flow [1][2][3] Group 1: Earnings and Cash Flow - The expected net profit for Shell in Q2 is $4.4 billion, with operating cash flow before working capital/derivatives at $10.4 billion [2] - The decline in EPS is anticipated to be in double digits, primarily driven by weak downstream business performance [2][5] - Cash flow is expected to outperform EPS, with a midpoint of combined working capital/derivatives growth at $2.5 billion [2] Group 2: Trading and Operational Performance - Trading performance in both integrated gas and downstream sectors has significantly weakened compared to Q1, where integrated gas was flat and downstream oil trading saw a notable increase [4] - The chemical and product business is expected to see a significant decline, with the Monaca plant's unplanned maintenance exacerbating trading weakness [4] - Upstream and integrated gas production remains robust, with upstream production guidance adjusted upwards by approximately 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day [4] Group 3: Industry Impact and Comparisons - The trading weakness is not isolated to Shell but reflects broader industry trends affecting major companies like BP [5][6] - The report indicates that the overall market consensus is likely to adjust downwards significantly due to the poor performance in integrated gas/liquid trading and chemical/product sectors [5] - The report highlights TotalEnergies as potentially having the most resilient cash flow among major players in Q2 [6]

Group 1 - The core index, the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Upstream Index (H300 Upstream), reported a value of 2572.51 points, with a 2.22% increase over the past month, a 25.04% increase over the past three months, and a 9.20% increase year-to-date [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of theme securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, selected based on the China Securities industry classification [1] - The top ten holdings of the H300 Upstream Index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (28.81%), PetroChina Company Limited (12.85%), Zijin Mining Group (10.9%), China Shenhua Energy Company (9.29%), Sinopec Limited (8.93%), China Hongqiao Group (4.48%), China Coal Energy Company (3.4%), Zhaojin Mining Industry Company (3.06%), Luoyang Molybdenum Company (2.89%), and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (2.35%) [1] Group 2 - The industry composition of the H300 Upstream Index shows that oil and gas account for 50.95%, precious metals for 16.02%, coal for 15.56%, industrial metals for 14.84%, oil and gas extraction and field services for 1.07%, rare metals for 0.89%, and other non-ferrous metals and alloys for 0.67% [2] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year, with provisions for temporary adjustments in special circumstances [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The crude oil market is facing a game between accelerating supply return and weak demand recovery. OPEC+ accelerating production increase may drive the global crude oil market from destocking to a slight restocking phase, but the low OECD commercial inventory still supports the price. In the third quarter, the oil price may show a volatile downward pattern, and the fluctuation center is restricted by the trade - off between OPEC+'s actual production increase execution rate and the northern hemisphere's summer refinery operating rate [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On July 4 - 5, the SC crude oil main contract price fell 1.03% to 503.5 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent prices remained stable at $67.18 and $68.85 per barrel respectively. The cross - regional spreads of SC with Brent and WTI narrowed, and the near - far month spread (SC continuous - continuous 3) also narrowed, indicating a marginal relief of the market's expectation of tight future supply [2]. - On the supply side, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August, accelerating production increase. Since April, the released production will reach 1.918 million barrels per day, significantly faster than the original plan. Saudi Arabia's official price premium strategies for August are differentiated, suggesting its intention to maintain regional supply balance through structural pricing [3]. - On the demand side, there are signs of marginal repair. The recovery of fuel supply at the UK's Lindsey refinery and India's plan to expand refinery capacity have improved short - term refinery demand, but the significant reduction in Brent crude oil speculative net long positions reflects doubts about the continuous upward space of oil prices [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On July 4, 2025, SC futures price decreased by 0.55%, WTI decreased by 1.01%, and Brent decreased by 0.49%. Among spot prices, Oman, Victory, Dubai, ESPO, and Duri increased, while others had different degrees of decline. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI changed, and the SC continuous - continuous 3 spread decreased by 12.36%. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.93%, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.21% [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: On July 4, 2025, FU futures price decreased by 0.70%, LU decreased by 0.06%, and NYMEX fuel oil increased by 1.75%. Among spot prices, some increased and some decreased. The Singapore high - low sulfur spread decreased by 1.86%, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 2.99%. The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 3.91% [7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: OPEC+ will increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and some members' over - production has caused disputes. Saudi Aramco's move to sell power plant assets may indicate financial pressure [3][8]. - **Demand**: The UK's Lindsey refinery resumed fuel supply, and India plans to expand refinery capacity. Dubai Airlines resumed flights to Tehran, slightly alleviating geopolitical premiums [4][10]. - **Inventory**: The fuel oil futures warehouse receipt decreased by 10,000 tons, while the medium - sulfur crude oil and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged [11]. - **Market Information**: Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arab light crude oil for different regions in August. The net long positions of gasoline speculators increased, while those of Brent crude oil decreased [11]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate data, which help to comprehensively understand the supply and demand situation of the oil market [13][15][17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards a short - trend, with a driving force for a downward trend, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The rapid production increase by OPEC+ has limited impact on oil prices in Q3. After the Q3 peak season, if the US equivalent tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline. Other energy products have their own supply - demand characteristics and short - term trends [2][3][4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. The actual monthly production increase of OPEC+ is less than the target increase. In Q3, the increase can be well absorbed by demand. After Q3, if the US tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline. Short - term view is that the bottom of oil prices will rise in Q3 [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil opening weak drove fuel - related futures down. High - sulfur fuel oil demand is low, and its price and cracking spread are weakening. Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited short - term supply pressure due to the coking profit and diesel cracking strength, but demand lacks a clear driver, with short - term cracking spread expected to be slightly stronger [2] Asphalt - With the decline of oil prices, asphalt prices also dropped. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly, and the cumulative year - on - year increase dropped from 8% to 7%. Demand recovery is delayed, refinery inventory increased by 15,000 tons, and social inventory remained flat. The short - term trend is to fluctuate [3] LPG - The international market supply is loose, and overseas prices may be under pressure. Last week's new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs promoted the repair of PDH profit margins. In summer, supply pressure increases, and the market trend is weak [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In H1 2025, the LPG futures market was in a range - bound state with weak endogenous drivers, but price volatility increased significantly due to macro and geopolitical events [5][26]. - Without major geopolitical and macro disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will further increase. Although China's chemical demand base will expand with new device launches, weak downstream product demand and low device profits restrict raw material demand release and cap the upside of LPG prices [1][5][102]. - Based on the expectation of a medium - term decline in crude oil prices and a global LPG oversupply, there is a certain downward driver for LPG prices in H2 2025. Considering the current price level, the short - term downside space may be limited, and opportunities to short on rallies can be monitored [5][102]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil Reality Fundamentals Are Fair but Expectations Are Weak, and the Cost Center May Further Decline in Q4 - In H1 2025, international oil prices fluctuated repeatedly due to increased geopolitical and macro disturbances. Brent once exceeded $80/barrel at the beginning of the year but then fell back. Trump's policies had a more prominent negative impact on the oil market [12]. - In April, Trump's tariff policy and OPEC's production increase decision led to an accelerated oil price decline, with Brent falling below $60/barrel. After the tariff conflict improved marginally, oil prices rebounded [13]. - In June, the Israel - Iran conflict increased the geopolitical premium of crude oil, and Brent approached $80/barrel. After the cease - fire, oil prices quickly fell back [14]. - Currently, the crude oil market has returned to its fundamental logic. The short - term fundamentals are fair, but there may be oversupply in Q4, and the cost support for downstream energy - chemical products may weaken [15]. H1 2025 LPG Market Operated Weakly Overall, and Tariffs and Geopolitical Conflicts Caused Disturbances - In Q1 2025, the LPG market was in a shock state with no prominent contradictions. Minor disturbances had limited impact, and the spot market was not tight due to weak downstream demand in the Asia - Pacific [26]. - In Q2 2025, the impact of macro and geopolitical factors increased significantly. The US - imposed tariffs led to a change in the LPG trade pattern, an increase in PDH device losses, and complex price transmission. After the tariff reduction, the market remained cautious. In June, the Israel - Iran conflict briefly boosted the LPG market, but after the cease - fire, it returned to a loose supply - demand pattern [27][28]. H2 2025 LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and US Export Space Will Further Expand OPEC Eases Production Cuts, and Middle East LPG Supply Has Growth Potential - OPEC's production policy has shifted, with production quotas increasing. Although actual production increases may be lower than quotas, LPG supply is expected to rise. Middle East LPG shipments have gradually increased, and CP prices have declined [42][44]. - Iran's LPG shipments have remained stable this year, and after the temporary delay in June due to the Israel - Iran conflict, they are expected to resume in July [44]. US LPG Supply Keeps Growing, and Export Space Will Further Expand after Terminal Expansion - US NGL and LPG production have been rising. With limited domestic consumption growth, the US needs to export more. After the tariff adjustment, the US - China LPG trade window has reopened but not fully recovered [55]. - The expansion of US export terminals will increase export capacity by about 950,000 tons/month in July, further opening up export space. The future of US - China trade depends on tariff negotiations [60]. Russian Gas Supply Shows an Obvious Growth Trend and Has Become a New LPG Raw Material Source for China - China's imports of Russian LPG have been increasing. From January to May this year, imports reached 316,000 tons, a 95% year - on - year increase. Russian LPG has a price advantage and stable supply, which has suppressed the spot price in North China [79]. China's PDH New Capacity Launch Cycle Continues, but Profits Remain a Constraint on Demand Release - China's LPG demand has been growing, mainly driven by the launch of downstream chemical devices. About 5.31 million tons/year of propane dehydrogenation capacity is planned to be launched this year, but PDH industry profits have been low, restricting demand release and new device launch progress [83]. - The US tariff policy still poses risks to China's LPG raw material procurement. If tariffs rise again, PDH device profits will be under pressure, and industry demand may decline [85]. LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and Market Upside Resistance Remains Significant - Without major disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will increase, while weak downstream demand and low device profits will limit price increases [102].