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美联储降息落地,持续看好有色金属板块
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-21 09:06
证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 09 21 年 月 日 有色金属 美联储降息落地,持续看好有色金属板块 贵金属:预防式降息落地,继续看好金银后市走势。根据国盛证券宏观团队《美联储重启降 息,怎么看、怎么办?》,北京时间 9 月 18 日凌晨 2 点,美联储公布 9 月议息会议决议。美 联储如期降息 25bp,点阵图显示年内共降息 3 次,声明提及"委员会判断就业的下行风险 已上升"、"通胀有所回升",鲍威尔称这是"风险缓释型"降息,整体基调偏中性。历史上 看,美联储在经济不衰退的情况下降息,将带动美股和黄金上涨。会议过后,金银回调后在 周五重新上涨,我们继续看好流动性宽松预期下金银价格表现。建议关注:兴业银锡、盛达 资源、万国黄金集团、中金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属:(1)铜:流动性宽松与需求旺季对铜价形成支撑。①宏观方面:周内美联储降 息靴子落地,铜价在获利了结背景下回吐部分涨幅;②库存端:周内全球铜库存环比增加 0.83 万吨,其中中国库存增加 0.82 万吨,LME 铜库存减少 0.53 万吨,COMEX 铜库存增加 0.54 万 ...
每周股票复盘:紫金矿业(601899)紫金黄金国际递交上市资料集
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 18:18
截至2025年9月19日收盘,紫金矿业(601899)报收于25.02元,较上周的25.65元下跌2.46%。本周,紫金矿业9月16日盘中最高价报26.15元。9月 18日盘中最低价报24.11元。紫金矿业当前最新总市值6649.71亿元,在工业金属板块市值排名1/60,在两市A股市值排名19/5153。 2025年9月19日,紫金黄金国际在香港联交所网站刊登招股说明书,启动全球发售。基础发行股数为348,990,700股,其中香港公开发售占10%,国 际发售占90%。超额配售权可额外发行最多52,348,600股,若全额行使,最大发行股数为401,339,300股。发行价格确定为71.59港元/股。香港公开 发售于2025年9月19日开始,预计9月24日结束。新股预计于2025年9月29日在香港联交所挂牌上市。 公司公告汇总 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理,由AI算法生成(网信算备310104345710301240019号),不构成投资建议。 紫金矿业拟分拆所属子公司紫金黄金国际有限公司至香港联合交易所有限公司主板上市的相关事宜已获公司2025年第一次临时股东会、2025年第 二次A股类别股东会及H股类 ...
今年以来高位!公私募仓位同步提升
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 10:25
Group 1 - The average position of domestic stock private equity institutions has exceeded 78%, reaching the highest level this year as of September 12 [1][3] - The average position of public equity funds (including stock and mixed equity funds) has also risen to over 93%, marking a high level for the year [1][3] Group 2 - The increase in positions indicates a positive outlook from both public and private equity institutions regarding the market [2][3] - As of September 12, the proportion of private equity institutions with a heavy or full position (over 80%) has significantly increased to 60.02%, while the proportion of empty positions has decreased to 5.08% [3] Group 3 - The average position of large-scale private equity institutions (over 10 billion) has risen to 78.22%, with a notable increase of 11.11 percentage points from the previous week [3] - The average position of private equity institutions with assets between 5 billion and 10 billion is the highest among all categories at 86.49% [3] Group 4 - Public equity funds have actively adjusted their allocations, with the top sectors including electronics (13.92%), pharmaceuticals (12.31%), and communications (11.30%), collectively accounting for nearly 40% [4] - Recent adjustments by public equity funds have involved increasing holdings in power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and communications, while reducing exposure in the automotive, beauty care, and banking sectors [4] Group 5 - Private equity institutions maintain a positive outlook on the A-share market, focusing on three main investment themes: technology growth sectors driven by event factors, precious and industrial metals benefiting from expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, and the cyclical recovery of the pig farming industry [5] - The technology sector remains a core focus for many private equity firms, with significant potential observed in China's artificial intelligence industry as domestic models and chips become better aligned [5] Group 6 - Despite recent market fluctuations, there is no indication of overall risk in major A-share indices, suggesting that the market is not turning despite corrections in certain high-valuation sectors [6]
从记者到 “周期赌神”!叶勇靠3大狠招,双基金躺赢51%-73%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 09:46
Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive investment performance of Ye Yong, who transitioned from a financial journalist to a fund manager, achieving returns of 73.07% and 51.75% for his funds in the past year [1][3]. Investment Philosophy - Ye Yong's investment philosophy can be summarized as "good companies, low prices, and hold on," emphasizing a comprehensive evaluation of companies based on various indicators such as historical development, team composition, core technology, market competitiveness, and financial data [8]. - He believes in the importance of not only holding quality stocks during market volatility but also having the courage to increase positions [8]. Market Approach - Ye Yong emphasizes the need to align with macro and industry cycles, focusing on market style, industry beta, and then individual stock alpha [10]. - He identifies three key investment areas based on macro cycle judgments: industrial metals (like copper and aluminum), traditional cyclical leaders in sectors such as chemicals and steel, and post-cycle sectors like food and real estate [12][13][15][17]. Investment Timing and Indicators - Ye Yong advises investors to pay attention to leading indicators such as PPI, inventory cycles, and credit pulses to identify cycle positions [19]. - He provides specific buy and sell signals, including futures price structures and significant quarterly gross margin improvements for leading companies [19]. Recovery Sequence - Different cyclical industries recover in varying sequences, with chemicals and cement leading, followed by semiconductor materials, and finally consumer-related sectors like automotive and aviation [21]. Long-term Perspective - Ye Yong advocates for a long-term investment approach, suggesting that investors may need to hold cyclical stocks for 3 to 5 years to realize substantial returns [23]. - He emphasizes the importance of strong cash flow and the ability of companies to survive downturns, ensuring they can rebound when the economy improves [24]. Conclusion - Ye Yong's diverse career background contributes to his unique perspective on cyclical investments, demonstrating that understanding macroeconomic trends and maintaining patience are crucial for long-term success in investing [28].
洛阳钼业涨2.02%,成交额11.65亿元,主力资金净流出6996.25万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 03:04
Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 97.44% but a recent decline of 5.89% over the last five trading days [2]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. was established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012. The company is primarily engaged in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of precious metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [2]. - The company's main business revenue composition includes: refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), phosphorus (2.23%), niobium (1.88%), tungsten (1.17%), and others (0.11%) [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum achieved operating revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.671 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.07% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 21.562 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.576 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Luoyang Molybdenum was 237,500, a decrease of 15.95% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person remained at 0 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 648 million shares, an increase of 6.949 million shares from the previous period. Other notable shareholders include Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, which have also increased their holdings [3].
紫金矿业涨2.01%,成交额15.74亿元,主力资金净流入9796.90万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 02:59
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zijin Mining has shown significant stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 67.86% and a market capitalization of 6620.47 billion yuan as of September 19 [1] - As of June 30, 2025, Zijin Mining achieved an operating revenue of 1677.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 232.92 billion yuan, up 54.41% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 534.29 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 219.25 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Group 2 - The stock has seen a recent decline of 2.88% over the last five trading days, but has increased by 20.57% over the past 20 days and 25.94% over the last 60 days [1] - The main business revenue composition includes 66.76% from other sources, 41.33% from smelting and trading gold, and 16.26% from copper smelting [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 9.27% to 335,700, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [2]
美联储降息周期,大宗商品是如何表现的?摩根大通:通常“第四个月”进入上涨趋势
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-19 02:08
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has officially begun, presenting new opportunities and challenges for the commodity market [1] Group 1: Impact of Interest Rate Cuts on Commodities - Historically, commodities tend to benefit from interest rate cuts, with an average increase of 3% in the nine months following the first cut [1] - The price movement of commodities typically follows a specific pattern: an initial rise in the first month after the cut, followed by a pullback in the second and third months, and a resurgence in the fourth month [2] - The performance of commodities during rate cut cycles is influenced by various factors, with the macroeconomic backdrop being crucial [1][4] Group 2: Differentiation Between "Healthy" and "Recessionary" Rate Cuts - In "healthy" rate cut cycles, such as those in 1995 and 2024, commodities have shown an average return of 15% over nine months, primarily driven by energy and precious metals [4] - Conversely, in "recessionary" rate cut cycles, like those in 1998, 2001, and 2019, commodities faced an average decline of 16% [4] Group 3: Sector Performance During Rate Cuts - Energy and precious metals are the strongest performing sectors during rate cut cycles, with average increases of 10% and 7% respectively in the nine months following the first cut [6] - Industrial metals lag behind, with an average decline of 4% during the same period [6] - Agricultural products and livestock show no clear performance trends during rate cut cycles [6] Group 4: Future Scenarios for Commodities - Three potential scenarios for the future of commodities have been outlined: 1. "Bronzilocks" scenario: Global economy remains resilient, leading to strong commodity returns [10] 2. Recession scenario (40% probability): High risk of U.S. economic recession, resulting in downward pressure on commodities [10] 3. Re-inflation scenario (45% probability): Risk of persistent inflation, with commodities expected to yield an average monthly return of 1.6% [10]
工业金属板块9月18日跌3.6%,电工合金领跌,主力资金净流出51.09亿元
从资金流向上来看,当日工业金属板块主力资金净流出51.09亿元,游资资金净流入12.84亿元,散户资 金净流入38.25亿元。工业金属板块个股资金流向见下表: 证券之星消息,9月18日工业金属板块较上一交易日下跌3.6%,电工合金领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3831.66,下跌1.15%。深证成指报收于13075.66,下跌1.06%。工业金属板块个股涨跌见下表: | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002501 | 利源股份 | 2.81 | 2.55% | 565.45万 | 16.08亿 | | 002203 | 海亮股份 | 12.36 | 1.23% | 51.85万 | 6.46 Z | | 002988 | 蒙美新材 | 43.76 | 0.53% | 8.70万 | 3.85亿 | | 300328 | 宜安科技 | 19.14 | 0.00% | 99.95万 | 19.34亿 | | 002295 | 精艺股份 | 10.67 | -1.11% | 13.36万 | ...
紫金矿业跌2.03%,成交额43.44亿元,主力资金净流出5.44亿元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 06:23
Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline despite a significant year-to-date increase of 65.50% [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 167.71 billion yuan, marking an 11.50% year-on-year growth, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.29 billion yuan, which is a 54.41% increase compared to the previous year [3]. - The company has distributed a total of 53.43 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 21.93 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [4]. Stock Market Activity - As of September 18, Zijin Mining's stock price was 24.56 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 4.34 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.85%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 652.75 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a net outflow of 544 million yuan in principal funds, with significant selling pressure observed [1]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased to 335,700, with an average of 0 circulating shares per person [3]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 1.589 billion shares, and several ETFs that have increased their holdings [4].
午评:两市低开高走沪指涨0.45% 半导体板块强势
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-09-18 03:43
Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market opened lower but rose during the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3893.95 points, up 0.45% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13319.70 points, up 0.79%, and the ChiNext Index closed at 3162.90 points, up 0.49% [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Automotive Services and Others (up 3.86%), Semiconductors (up 3.63%), Rubber Products (up 2.72%), and Components (up 2.72%) [2] - The sectors with the largest declines were Precious Metals (down 2.31%), Insurance (down 1.45%), Industrial Metals (down 1.45%), and Securities (down 1.44%) [2] Trading Volume and Net Inflow - The Automotive Services sector had a total trading volume of 536.37 million hands and a net inflow of 67.49 billion [2] - The Semiconductor sector recorded a total trading volume of 2599.29 million hands with a net inflow of 175.04 billion [2] - In contrast, the Insurance sector had a total trading volume of 156.42 million hands and a net outflow of 9.32 billion [2]