化工板块今日（12月5日）震荡盘整，截至发稿，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）场内价 格涨0.13%。 成份股方面，农药、钾肥、聚氨酯等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，扬农化工、亚钾国际双双大涨 超2%，鲁西化工、万华化学、华峰化学等多股跟涨超1%。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 · | | | | | | F9 盘箱盘后 婴加 九50 面迁 工具 @ 00 | | 4. TETF 1 | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 516020(化工ETF) 10:18 价 0.791 温康 0.001(0.13%) 均价 0.791 版交量 98 (OPV 0.7914 ) | | | | | | | +0.001 +0.139 | | | | | | | | | | | | SSE CNY 10:18:44 交易中 | | 0 / 8 + | | 0.732 | | | | | | | | ...

国海证券指出，反内卷有望重估中国化工行业，后续措施有望使全球化工行业产能扩张大幅放缓。中国 化工行业具有充沛的经营活动现金流量净额，一旦扩张放缓，潜在股息率将大幅提升，有望实现从吞金 兽到摇钱树的转变；同时，供给端的改变将带来景气度的止跌回升，化工标的有望兼具高弹性和高股息 的优势。重点关注石油化工、煤化工、有机硅、磷化工、草甘膦等。 每日经济新闻 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.39%，石油石化行业占比为32.71%。政策针对化工行业的"反内卷"措 施持续加码，成为板块走强的核心支撑。 截至12月4日9点52分，石化ETF（159731）涨0.36%。持仓股藏格矿业、金发科技、中国石油等涨幅居 前。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF连续9个交易日获得资金净流入，合计"吸金"2550万元。石化ETF 最新份额达2.42亿份，最新规模2.02亿元，均创成立以来新高。 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the gradual recovery of the chemical industry, with profit declines slowing down and demand gradually rebounding, particularly in sub-sectors like agricultural chemicals and fluorochemicals [22][23] - The AI application in various industries is accelerating, with significant advancements in hardware and software, leading to a reshaping of the global landscape [24][25] - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with rising costs impacting profit margins, yet there are emerging opportunities in niche markets like snacks and soft drinks [27][28] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market is showing signs of stabilization, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index trading at average P/E ratios above their three-year median, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][13][15] - The coal and non-ferrous metals sectors are leading the market, while sectors like internet services and software development are underperforming [9][13] Industry Analysis - The electric power and public utilities sector is rated "stronger than the market," with a focus on stable returns and shareholder value, particularly in large hydropower companies and high-dividend coal enterprises [20] - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges with overcapacity and price stability, but there is potential for recovery as the market undergoes structural adjustments [30][33] Investment Strategies - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy, focusing on high-dividend assets like banks and utilities for defensive positioning, while also considering growth opportunities in technology and AI sectors [12][24] - Specific recommendations include monitoring companies in the chemical sector that are well-positioned to benefit from supply-demand dynamics and regulatory changes [22][23]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -13% -7% -1% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.11 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,897.71 | | -0.42 | | 深证成指 | | | 13,056.70 | -0.68 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,554.33 | | -0.48 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,425.70 | | -0.54 | | 中证 | 500 | 7, ...

氯磷硅三元素循环不息，叙写产业融合新传奇 2022年布局浙江启源、湖州金灿、湖北皇恩烨三大基地，聚焦石墨负极、硅基负极、新型负极业务，提供新能源应用场景负极材料综合解决方案。 2021年并购合肥星宇，进入杀虫杀菌系列，打破农化产品系列单一的发展瓶颈，成为全球除草剂品种最齐全的企业，为产业登顶奠定坚实基础。 新安的步伐，始终踏在时代需求的脉搏上 2016年以来，围绕"氯、磷、硅"元素循环利用，集团以资本为引擎，以项目为抓手，持续延链补链强链，从"双轮驱动"逐步走向硅基材料、磷基材料、新 能源材料"三足鼎立"新发展格局，利用白南山园区搬迁契机，打造马目智能园区，草甘膦合成技术成为国内领先。 2018年牵手德国赢创投产白炭黑项目，填补高端领域的空白，巩固了全产业链优势。把握"碳达峰、碳中和"发展机遇，发挥碳基、硅基传统优势，在动力 电池、储能电池、3C消费电池等领域拓展新能源应用场景。 2019年，新安与福建上杭县政府签约磷基阻燃剂项目，聚焦新能源汽车、5G通信、航空材料等战略性新兴产业。 2020年全资控股华洋化工，深化硅基产业一体化发展。同年，建成镇江江南30万吨氯资源综合利用项目，巩固了行业地位；合资建设崇耀 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - Due to continuous production cuts in the southwest region during the dry season on both the supply and demand sides, and a significant decline in inventory due to the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, with limited actual consumption, the market may fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - SI2512 closed at 9155 with a 0.38% increase and a position of 1674 [2]. - SI2601 closed at 9145 with a 0.16% decrease and a position of 203274 [2]. - SI2602 closed at 9140 with no change and a position of 52565 [2]. - SI2603 closed at 9145 with a 0.16% decrease and a position of 26444 [2]. - SI2604 closed at 9135 with a 0.11% decrease and a position of 12994 [2]. Spot Market - In the East region, 553 (non - oxygen - passing) was priced at 9350 with no change, 553 (hydrogen - passing) at 9550 with no change, 421 at 9800 with no change, 441 at 9750, and 3303 at 10450 [2]. - At Huangpu Port, 553 (hydrogen - passing) was priced at 9600 with no change, and 421 at 10050 [2]. - At Tianjin Port, 553 (flux - passing) was priced at 9400, and 421 at 9800 with no change [2]. - In Kunming, 553 (hydrogen - passing) was priced at 9600, and 421 at 10000 with no change [2]. - Sichuan DMC price for 421 was 9800, 107 - glue was 13850, polycrystalline silicon (dense material, per kg) was 51 with no change, and the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21500 with a 150 increase [2]. Price Difference - The price difference between si2512 and si2601 was 10 - 45 [2]. - The price difference between si2601 and si2602 was 5 - 15 [2]. - The price difference between 421 spot and 553 oxygen - passing spot was 250 [2]. - The basis (East 553 spot - main contract) was 405 with a 15 decrease [2]. Warehouse Information - The total capacity of all warehouses was 7.5 tons, and the total number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3680 [2]. Industry Dynamics - On November 14, the online approval and supervision platform for investment projects in Jiangxi Province announced the filing information for an annual production of 137,500 tons of organic silicon new material project by Jiangxi Xinfang High - Tech Yongxiu [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the recent supply - demand pattern may improve, and the current valuation is low. If there are relevant policies, the disk may have room to rise. For short - term trading, it is recommended to operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply and demand on both ends are weakening, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and with stricter supervision, the disk is expected to gradually fall back to the fundamentals. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,120 yuan/ton and closed at 9,145 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.16%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 203,274 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on December 1 was 6,596 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the domestic industrial silicon output was 401,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of industrial silicon was 3.8716 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton. In November, the domestic organic silicon DMC output increased by 3.82% month - on - month and decreased by 1.33% year - on - year. In December, due to the joint emission - reduction plan in November, the industry's overall operating rate is expected to decline month - on - month, and the domestic organic silicon DMC output is expected to decrease by about 3.08% month - on - month compared with November [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable, and the recent supply - demand pattern may improve. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November, the number of new warehouse receipts registered decreased significantly. The industrial silicon disk is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote, the disk may have room to rise. Short - term trading should operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures 2601 rose, opening at 57,000 yuan/ton and closing at 57,705 yuan/ton, a 3.26% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 142,133 lots (144,759 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 338,696 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 28.10, a 3.69% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.50GW, a 4.17% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a - 11.40% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW, a - 5.95% month - on - month change [4][5]. - In October, the polysilicon output was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the output in the southwest region was expected to decline significantly [5]. - The prices of battery cells and silicon wafers remained stable. In November, the output of component enterprises decreased by 2.43% month - on - month compared with October. It is expected that the output in December will continue to decline significantly, and the terminal demand will return to the off - season, with the expected month - on - month decline in the operating rate compared with October being 14.77% [5][6]. - From December 3, 2025, the speculative trading margin standard for the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract will be adjusted to 13%, and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 12%. From December 3, 2025, the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or customers in the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract shall not exceed 500 lots [6]. Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both weakened, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November and few new ones were registered, there was more delivery game in the near - month contracts. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, with large disk fluctuations. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

Core Insights - The report highlights a gradual recovery in various industries, with a focus on investment opportunities arising from supply and demand dynamics [6][14][16] - The AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant advancements in technology and applications, particularly in China [16][17] - The chemical industry is expected to see a marginal recovery in profitability due to improved demand and reduced investment pressures [13][14] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a slight upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,914.01, reflecting a 0.65% increase [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.95 and 48.16, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [8][9] International Market Performance - Major international indices, such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones closing at 30,772.79, down 0.67% [4] Industry Strategies - The chemical industry is entering a phase of improved stability, with a focus on supply-side constraints and demand recovery, particularly in agricultural chemicals and fluorochemicals [13][14] - The AI industry is projected to benefit from increased domestic demand and government support, with a focus on integrated circuits and software [16][17] - The food and beverage sector is facing challenges with declining revenue growth, but opportunities exist in the snack and beverage markets, which are expected to grow significantly [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical, as well as opportunities in the AI and semiconductor industries [15][16] - In the food and beverage sector, companies like Baoli Food and Dongpeng Beverage are recommended due to their growth potential in the snack and soft drink markets [21] Key Data Updates - The semiconductor industry continues to show strong growth, with global sales reaching $69.47 billion, a 25.1% year-on-year increase [36] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a focus on capacity reduction and optimization of the competitive landscape [25][23]

智通财经APP获悉，中原证券发布研报称，未来随着我国宏观经济持续向好与消费刺激政策的推动，化 工行业下游需求有望继续复苏。随着化工行业整体固定资产投资力度的放缓以及需求复苏的推动，未来 行业整体景气有望边际复苏，盈利有望底部回升。其中部分子行业由于成本端优势、供给端约束和需求 端复苏等积极因素，行业景气度表现相对较好，从而带来结构性的投资机会。维持行业"同步大市"的投 资评级。 中原证券主要观点如下： 下游需求的逐步回升以及行业新增产能投放的放缓 2024年底以来化工行业利润下滑态势逐步放缓，景气逐渐寻底。从板块经营情况来看，受益于行业供需 格局优化、需求复苏等因素带来的景气提升，农化、氟化工以及新能源相关等子行业收入利润实现较快 增长。此外有机硅、粘胶、纯碱、锦纶等产业受行业产能快速扩张，行业竞争加剧等因素影响，利润下 滑幅度较大。 随着反内卷政策的持续推进，在行政监管与行业自律等多项举措作用下，未来化工行业的供给端约束有 望明显加强。同时随着行业固定资产投资力度的下降，行业产能过剩的格局有望逐步扭转，推动景气的 逐步复苏。叠加环保、安监、减排等方面的监管要求的提升，对化工行业供给侧迎来新的约束，推动行 业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the situation where neither supply nor demand can provide strong drivers, the price trend of industrial silicon shows a pattern of "stable spot prices and fluctuating futures prices." The futures price fluctuations mainly come from cost change expectations, capital sentiment, and event disturbances. Limited supply reduction, insufficient demand, and high inventory are important constraints on price breakthroughs, while cost is an important support at the lower end. The futures price may experience short - term pulse - type increases but lacks a sustainable trend. In the short term, the industrial silicon price is likely to remain range - bound. To achieve a trending market, new drivers are needed [1][30]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - side Situation - In the southwest region, after entering the dry season, due to rising electricity prices and increased costs, the operating rates of some factories in Yunnan and Sichuan have significantly decreased. The weekly output has dropped by about 50% from the annual high, which is in line with seasonal characteristics. In the northwest region, production remains strong. Due to the advantage of coal - power costs and the ability to use hedging tools, enterprises can maintain a relatively high operating rate. As a result, the weekly national total output has decreased by less than 10% from the annual high. It is estimated that there is still some room for production decline in the southwest region. According to statistics, the production cost in Xinjiang is about 8,500 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that in the southwest region. If the northwest region maintains its operation, the overall production contraction is expected to be limited, and the impact of weather on production in the northwest needs to be monitored [6]. Demand - side Situation - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures market focuses on warehouse receipts and the establishment of platform companies, with the near - month prices showing strength. However, from the perspective of the industrial chain supply - demand, the marginal change is not optimistic. In December, the production schedule of the downstream silicon wafer segment is 45.7GW, a decrease of about 16% compared to November's 54.37GW. The production schedule of the silicon material segment is 11.35 tons, with a limited month - on - month decline. The polysilicon inventory of silicon enterprises has reached 28 tons, and the pressure of inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival is increasing. Although the silicon material price is temporarily stable, with N - type material quoted at 50,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, it is mainly a strategic price - holding behavior. If the platform company is established, the industry operating rate is expected to remain controlled, and the actual demand for industrial silicon will be insufficient [17]. - **Organic silicon**: The organic silicon industry has a greater impact on the industrial silicon market in terms of sentiment and expectations. After facing profit pressure and weak prices, the industry held a meeting, established a coordination mechanism, and planned to implement a production - reduction plan in early December, while also raising the spot price. Before December, the production of organic silicon DMC showed a slight increase, and the subsequent production - reduction plan is expected to have a relatively limited impact on the demand for industrial silicon. After the downstream profit is restored, the willingness to suppress the price of upstream raw materials may decrease, which will improve the price expectation of industrial silicon to some extent. However, if the production - reduction plan is fully implemented, the procurement of industrial silicon will be difficult to increase in a certain period [22]. - **Silicon - aluminum alloy and exports**: Driven by the industrial manufacturing and automotive industries, the operating rate of aluminum alloy has recently increased. After the end of the export rush, the export of industrial silicon decreased significantly in October, which cannot change the overall weak demand pattern [29].