橡胶与商品指数走势对比 橡胶与原油及石化指数走势 source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 南华工业品指数 南华橡胶指数(右轴) 南华商品指数(右2轴) 点 24/06 24/12 25/06 25/12 3500 4000 4500 5000 150 175 200 225 250 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 RU主力收盘价 INE原油主力收盘价(右轴) 南华石油化工指数(右2元轴/桶) 24/06 24/12 25/06 25/12 10000 12500 15000 17500 20000 400 500 600 700 800 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 . 南华期货天然橡胶产业周报 ——节前基本面驱动有限，随情绪区间波动为主 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月9日 一、核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 目前橡胶基本面支撑与压力并存。上游原料进入低产季，库存与进口偏多，下游长假开 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 宏观利好情绪消退，橡胶价格高位回落 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-09 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:宏观利好情绪消退，橡胶价格高位回落 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）国内产区：目前国内产区停割，暂无原料分析。（2）泰国产区：周期内泰国原料采购价格继续上涨，泰北停割；泰东北出现大面积落叶，割胶尾期 日产胶量不断下降，杯胶价格偏强运行；泰南橡胶树出现落叶，乳胶厂加价采购胶水，拉涨胶水收购价格。（3）越南产区：越南产区天气晴好，南部产区 | | 供给 | 偏多 | 预计临近春节停割，整体割胶产量持续走低，割胶工作已进入收 尾倒计时，当地加工厂囤货节奏积极，周内原料价格延续高位震荡走势。下周越南产区天 | | | | 气维持良好，停割收尾进程持续推进，原料供给 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report monitors the fundamentals of rubber, including futures market, spot market, and industry news, and indicates that the rubber trend strength is 0, showing a neutral view [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,080 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,085 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. The trading volume was 229,543 lots, a decrease of 53,790 lots; the position of the 05 contract was 146,030 lots, a decrease of 3,983 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 500 tons to 112,070 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 2,404 lots to 26,256 lots [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" was - 180 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan; the basis of "mixed - futures main contract" was - 980 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan; the month - spread of RU05 - RU09 was 105 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] - **Spot Market**: The outer - disk quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 all decreased. The prices of substitutes such as Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene increased. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market mostly decreased [2] Industry News - During the 2026 "Spring Festival", the average planned holiday days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises were about 9.17 days, 0.96 days less than the previous year. The start time of the holiday was postponed compared to last year, and the resumption time changed little. The average planned holiday days of all - steel tire sample enterprises were about 11.86 days, a slight decrease of 0.43 days. The overall resumption enthusiasm was slightly more positive than the previous year [3][4] Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - Both Shanghai Rubber (RU) and Synthetic Rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly in the short - term and maintain a volatile pattern in the medium - term, with a weak intraday performance on Monday, February 9, 2026 [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak; Overall view: run weakly [1][5] - **Core Logic**: Domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber producing areas have entered the off - season, and Southeast Asian producing areas are in the low - production season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex. However, approaching the Spring Festival holiday, the operating load of the downstream tire industry in the domestic rubber market has decreased, and the demand expectation has weakened. With the increasing bearish atmosphere in the energy and chemical sector, the Shanghai Rubber futures maintained a volatile and weak trend on the night of last Friday, and the futures price closed slightly lower. It is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak; Overall view: run weakly [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The supply of butadiene, the core raw material of domestic synthetic rubber, has become more abundant. Coupled with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the operating load of the downstream tire industry in the domestic rubber market has decreased, and the demand expectation has weakened. With the increasing bearish atmosphere in the energy and chemical sector, domestic synthetic rubber futures showed a volatile and weak trend on the night of last Friday, with the futures price closing slightly lower and obvious short - term weakening signs. It is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility of oil prices driven by geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing US-Iran negotiations and sanctions impacting Iranian oil exports [2][3][35] - WTI crude oil for March closed at $63.55 per barrel, down 3.41% for the week, while Brent crude for April settled at $68.05 per barrel, down 2.48% [2][35] - The US has imposed sanctions on multiple entities and individuals related to Iranian oil trade, aiming to significantly reduce Iran's illegal oil and petrochemical exports [3][35] Group 2 - The EU is proposing a new round of sanctions against Russia, which includes a complete ban on maritime services for Russian oil and restrictions on LNG tanker services [3][35] - Venezuela's oil exports to the US surged threefold in January, reaching an average of 284,000 barrels per day, driven by relaxed US policies [4][36] - The US oil production has dropped to its lowest level since November 2024, at 13.22 million barrels per day, due to severe winter storms [5][37] Group 3 - Domestic demand for refined oil has seen a price increase, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan/ton and 195 yuan/ton respectively [6][38] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, with investors likely to adopt a cautious approach ahead of the holiday season [6][38] - The overall oil market is influenced by both geopolitical narratives and supply dynamics, with potential for significant price volatility [6][38]

能源化工日报 2026-02-09 2026/02/09 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 马桂炎（联系人） 聚酯分析师 从业资格号：F03136381 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 严梓桑（联系人） 油品分析师 从业资格号：F03149203 15805136842 我们认为当前甲醇已经计价相当部分的利空因子，海外地缘短期仍有波动概率，前期布空止盈， 短期观望为主。 yanzs@wkqh.cn 2026/02/09 尿素 【行情资讯】 区域现货涨跌：山东变动 10 元/吨，河南变动 0 元/吨，河北变动 0 元/吨，湖北变动 0 元/吨， 江苏变动 10 元/吨，山西变动 0 元/吨，东北变动 0 元/吨，总体基差报-16 元/吨。 主力期货涨跌：主力合约变动-2 元/吨，报 1776 元/吨。 【策略观点】 我 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The supply side is tightening as overseas production areas enter the减产季, which provides bottom - support for rubber prices. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream tire factories are shutting down, leading to a temporary weakening of demand. High inventory also suppresses the natural rubber market. The short - term market is in a situation where the tightening supply and weakening demand are intertwined [101][103]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In Q4 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased by 4.7% year - on - year to 58.947 million units, with various sub - markets showing weakness [5]. - In January 2026, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 1.01 million units, a year - on - year increase of about 40% [6]. - In January 2026, the export volume of natural rubber in Cote d'Ivoire decreased by 1.8% year - on - year and 5.8% month - on - month to 163,000 tons [6]. - In 2025, the total export volume of natural rubber and mixed rubber in Indonesia increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and the export volume to China increased by 106% year - on - year [6]. - According to the ANRPC December 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.4% year - on - year to 14.9 million tons, and the consumption is expected to decrease by 0.7% year - on - year to 15.344 million tons [7]. Market Trends - This week, the trends of rubber futures were divergent. RU, NR, and TSR20 on the Singapore Exchange declined, while Japanese rubber rose. On February 6, 2026, the closing price of RU2605 was 16,080 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71%; the closing price of NR2605 was 13,085 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2605 was 187.90 cents/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2605 was 341.50 yen/kg, a month - on - month increase of 3.42% [9][11]. Basis, Spread and Substitute Prices - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: The basis of whole milk - RU05 was - 180 yuan/ton on February 6, 2026, with a month - on - month increase of 14.29% and a year - on - year increase of 69.49%. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was 105 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 22.22% and a year - on - year increase of 165.63% [17]. - **Other Spreads**: RU - NR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads decreased, while RU - BR spread increased. For example, on February 6, 2026, the RU - NR spread was 2,995 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%; the RU - BR spread was 3,230 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.00% [18][20]. - **Substitute Prices**: Affected by the expected decline in downstream demand for butadiene and the expected increase in domestic supply, the high production cost pressure of butadiene rubber has been slightly alleviated. The production capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber has recovered to a high level. Due to the end of pre - holiday stocking and the weakening of cost support, the synthetic rubber futures price has significantly decreased [29]. Fund Flows - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased, and the settled capital increased. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR also decreased, and the settled capital increased. On February 6, 2026, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 17.63, a month - on - month decrease of 12.80%; the settled capital was 6.979 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 5.86%. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was 19.23, a month - on - month decrease of 2.58%; the settled capital was 2.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% [32][34]. Fundamental Data - **Supply** - Weather: The rainy season in southern and northeastern Thailand has basically ended. The rainy season in Hainan and Yunnan in China has also basically ended [37][39]. - Raw Material Prices: As overseas production areas transition to the off - season, the raw material supply is relatively tight, and the procurement prices have generally increased [41]. - Raw Material Spreads: The water - cup spread in Thailand has widened. The domestic production areas are basically in the off - season, and the price update has been suspended [46]. - Upstream Processing Profits: The overall processing profit of rubber in Thailand has declined [47]. - Exports: In December 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month. In January 2026, Indonesia's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month. In November 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month. In January 2026, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month. In December 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased month - on - month [58][64][70][72]. - **Demand** - Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory: The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises decreased to varying degrees this week. Full - steel tires accumulated inventory, while semi - steel tires entered the seasonal de - stocking period. On February 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tires was 60.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.23%; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 72.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00% [82][81]. - Tire Exports and Heavy - Duty Truck Sales: In December 2025, the export of full - steel tires decreased slightly month - on - month, while the export of semi - steel tires continued to recover. The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks decreased month - on - month, and the sales volume of passenger cars decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [86]. - Road Transport Turnover: In December 2025, the freight turnover and passenger turnover of road transport decreased month - on - month [87]. - **Inventory** - Spot Inventory: China's natural rubber inventory has increased. The inventory in Qingdao has increased due to the arrival volume. The inbound volume has increased by 6.7% month - on - month. Vietnamese rubber tends to accumulate inventory, while Yunnan generally continues to reduce inventory [95]. - Futures Inventory: On February 6, 2026, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 112,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.03%; the futures inventory of 20 - numbered rubber on the INE was 51,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.89% [98]. This Week's Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23%. China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.281 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [102]. - **Demand**: Many full - steel tire enterprises will gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday around February 10. Some enterprises are in the final stage, and the production has decreased. Semi - steel tire enterprises are stocking up on foreign trade inventory, and the current start - up is good. However, due to the suspension of logistics in some remote areas, there is a shortage of transportation capacity for pre - holiday stocking, which affects the shipment [102]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply side is tightening, and the demand side is under pressure. The short - term natural rubber market is in a situation of long - short entanglement, and the rubber price will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [103]. - **Valuation**: As of Friday, the spread between the main contracts of RU and NR was 3,030 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 980 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton [104]. - **Strategy**: Wait for opportunities to go long on dips for single - side trading. Observe for calendar spread trading. For cross - variety trading, go long on NR and short on RU. If worried about a sharp rise in RU due to a shortage of warehouse receipts, consider buying call options for the 05 and 09 contracts for protection [105].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has initiated an investigation into Shenzhen Yahui Long Biotechnology Co., Ltd. for allegedly misleading statements in their announcements regarding a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Shenzhen Brain Machine Star Chain Technology Co., Ltd. [1] Group 1: Company Actions and Announcements - On January 6, Yahui Long announced a strategic cooperation agreement with Brain Machine Star Chain, claiming collaboration in product development, market promotion, and equity investment, highlighting the latter's focus on artificial intelligence and various technology paths [1] - Following regulatory pressure, Yahui Long issued a supplementary announcement clarifying that Brain Machine Star Chain's current research products only involve non-invasive technology and that some products are still in early research or preclinical stages [1] Group 2: Regulatory Responses - On January 7, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a regulatory warning to Yahui Long and related responsible parties, emphasizing the need for accurate and complete information disclosure, especially regarding the hot market concept of "brain-machine interfaces" [2] - The announcement from Yahui Long contained inconsistent statements about the technology paths of Brain Machine Star Chain and failed to adequately address key investor concerns regarding cooperation feasibility and associated risks [2] Group 3: Industry Context - Multiple listed companies have faced regulatory warnings and investigations this year for allegedly misleading statements related to market trends, including Ningbo Rongbai New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Ningbo Tianpu Rubber Technology Co., Ltd., indicating a broader trend of scrutiny in the industry [3] - The regulatory environment is tightening as the exchanges have taken action against several companies for "hitching a ride" on market hotspots, highlighting the importance of accurate disclosures in maintaining market integrity [3]

上交所称，公司上述行为违反了自愿信息披露等相关规则，对亚辉龙及时任董事会秘书王鸣阳予以监管 警示，同时要求公司及董事、高级管理人员采取有效措施对相关违规事项进行整改，结合违规事项，就 公司信息披露及规范运作中存在的合规隐患进行深入排查，制定有针对性的防范措施，切实提高公司信 息披露和规范运作水平。公司需要在收到决定书后的1个月内，向上交所提交经全体董事、高级管理人 员签字确认的整改报告。 2月6日，证监会发布消息，对深圳市亚辉龙生物科技股份有限公司(以下简称"亚辉龙")公告涉嫌误导性 陈述立案调查。 2026年1月7日，亚辉龙披露签署战略合作框架协议的公告，涉嫌误导性陈述。近日，证监会已对亚辉龙 立案调查。下一步，证监会将在全面调查的基础上依法处理，切实维护市场健康发展。 亚辉龙碰瓷"脑机接口" 被上交所监管警示 此前，亚辉龙已经收到上交所监管警示。1月6日收盘后，亚辉龙发布《关于自愿披露签署战略合作框架 协议的公告》公司与深圳脑机星链科技有限公司(以下简称"脑机星链")签订《战略合作框架协议》，双 方将在产品研发、市场推广以及股权投资等方面开展合作，并称脑机星链是一家以人工智能为核心驱动 力，深耕非侵入式与 ...

天然橡胶日报：偏空震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 6 日 一、行情表现 2 月 6 日，天然橡胶主力合约收盘价 16080 元/吨，当日涨跌幅-0.83%。 今日天然橡胶市场涨跌互相，上海市场 24 年 SCRWF 主流货源意向成交价格 为 15900-15950 元/吨，较前一交易日持稳；越南 3L 混合胶主流货源意向成交价 格参考 16500-16550 元/吨，较前一交易日下跌 25 元/吨 日内现货市场来看，期货盘面震荡走势，当前下游实际询盘气氛一般，市场 成交表现偏淡，现货价格多稳中窄调。产区市场来看，沪胶重心震荡，现货价格 稳定；市场交投转淡，价格波动不大。 二、供给方面 上周天然橡胶供应呈现国内外逐渐下滑趋势。云南、海南产区全面停割；海 外方面，泰国、越南天气正常，泰国北部停割、泰国东北部以及越南产区接近割 胶季尾声，泰国南部正值旺产季。 全球天然橡胶供应将逐步由旺季转为淡季，后期供应压力或逐步减弱，但国 内 1 月下旬仍集中到港，国内海南产区停割，工厂收胶抢购热度有限，后期全球 供应压力减缓，叠加上游工厂的原料备库，预计原料价格将延续坚挺格局，橡胶 成本端支撑偏强。按照 ANRPC 天然 ...