Core Viewpoint - The rubber sector experienced a rise of 0.95% on January 5, with Litong Technology leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4023.42, up 1.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13828.63, up 2.24% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Litong Technology (code: 920225) closed at 34.98, with a gain of 9.14% and a trading volume of 52,700 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 180 million yuan [1]. - Other notable performers included Kexin New Energy (code: 300731) with a closing price of 57.87, up 2.93%, and Yuanchuang Technology (code: 301300) at 43.63, up 2.90% [1]. - The overall trading volume and transaction values for various stocks in the rubber sector were significant, with Kexin New Energy achieving a transaction value of 627 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The rubber sector saw a net outflow of 84.72 million yuan from institutional investors and a net outflow of 15.62 million yuan from retail investors, while individual investors contributed a net inflow of 100 million yuan [2]. - The capital flow data indicates that Litong Technology had a net inflow of 37.76 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 20.95% of its total trading [3]. - Conversely, Kexin New Energy experienced a net outflow of 1.99 million yuan from retail investors, indicating a mixed sentiment among different investor classes [3].

五"开篇之年，未来或迎一系列关于促投资、扩内需、稳财政以及"反内卷"等政策，市场氛围偏暖将有助橡胶 估值支撑。 南华期货天然橡胶产业周报 ——情绪偏暖烘托，胶价偏强整理，谨慎围护桩 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月5日 一、核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 近期宏观情绪偏暖带动商品整体表现较强，对于工业品有一定估值提振作用，上周出现品种分化与阶段调 整。橡胶系金融属性较强，尤其是RU在国内产区临近全面停割且仓单偏少情况下，或受估值"补涨"逻辑驱动 更显著，预期改善推动主力合约上涨，RU1-5价差维持平水波动，RU5-9价差走高。PMI数据显示12月国内制 造业转暖，下游需求预期升温。但橡胶整体基本面仍承压，天然橡胶干库连续累库，供给压力不减。汽车配 套需求较强，但一定程度受"以旧换新"补贴和新能源补贴退坡带来的零售促销与需求前置影响，后续增长或承 压；下游轮胎厂商和经销商库存压力较高，轮胎开工有所下滑， 交投情绪偏弱。重卡与工程机械受新旧置换 和对外出口提振，但长期固定资产投资 ...

光期研究 2 0 2 6年1月橡 胶 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 6 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 橡胶：旺产转低产，胶价震荡 p 2 | | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1、价格：期货盘面宽幅震荡 | | | | 2、供应：天胶国内进入停割季 | | | | 3、需求：轮胎库存累库高位 | | | | 4、库存：天然橡胶库存中性 | | | | 5、持仓 | | | p 3 1.1 价格：RU盘面月涨幅1.27%，NR盘面月涨幅3.1%，BR盘面月跌幅10.61% 图表：NR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 图表：沪胶主力价格（单位：元/吨） 图表：BR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 RSS3 SCRWF 沪胶主连 8500 9500 10500 11500 12500 13500 14500 15500 16500 17500 2022-09 2022- ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 商品市场情绪偏多，橡胶维持震荡表现 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-05 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | （1）国内产区：目前云南产区停割。海南产区西线、南部地区部分胶林正常割胶，新鲜胶水干含处于偏低水平，岛内可收胶量较为有限，受到生产利润有 所恢复提振，部分加工厂存在加价抢收情绪。（2）泰国产区：泰国整体天气趋于正常，泰柬地缘紧张局势有缓解迹象，东北部大部分区 域处于割胶高产阶 | | | | 段，杯胶价格相对坚挺；南部产区供应逐步上量，拖拽胶水价格下滑。 （3）越南产区：越南产区天气整体良好，产区割胶作业未受到扰动，原料供应稳定 | | | | 在常规状态，虽备货需求暂未启动，但是本土轮胎厂刚需采购支撑因素仍在，故原料价格原料价格保持坚挺。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | （ ...

能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 原油 | SC2602 | 432 | -6 | -1.46 | 5.20 | -1.41 | 2.96 | -0.08 | | 液化气 | PG2602 | 4,132 | 40 | 0.98 | 8.66 | 1.37 | 5.94 | -0.32 | | 甲醇 | MA2602 | 2,207 | 21 | 0.96 | 13.53 | 3.48 | 4.46 | -0.95 | | 乙二醇 | EG2602 | 3,649 | -57 ...

表 1：基本面数据 | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 15. 605 | 15. 670 | -65 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | - | 15, 640 | l | | | | 成交量(手) | 217, 811 | 260. 240 | -42, 429 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 168.775 | 175.574 | -6, 799 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 100. 590 | 97, 290 | +3, 300 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 41, 079 | 40. 075 | +1,004 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 现货-期货主力 | -355 | -420 | +65 | | | | 混合-期货主力 | -905 | -970 | +65 | | | 月差 | RU05-RU09 | 60 | 45 | +15 | | | 外盘报价 | RSS3 (美元 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日星期一 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 假期前 SR601 合约收盘价 5251 元/吨，日跌幅 0.13%；SR605 合约收盘价 5266 元/ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 吨，日跌幅 0.17%。 【重要资讯】 1.假期前广西白糖现货成交价为 5293 元/吨，下跌 16 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区 间 5300~5400 元/吨；云南制糖集团新糖报价 5130~5240 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价 区间为 5750~5900 元/吨，部分下调 10 元/吨。 | | | | | 2.根据印度糖和生物能源制造商协会（ISMA）的数据，截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，印 度 2025/26 榨季糖产量达到 1189.7 万吨，较去年同期的 954 万吨 ...

文字早评 2026/01/05 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、美国突袭委内瑞拉，逮捕总统马杜罗； 2、今年首个核聚变大会：1 月 16 日至 17 日在安徽合肥举办； 3、蓝箭航天科创板 IPO 申请正式获受理 拟募资 75 亿元； 4、国家集成电路基金在中芯国际 H 股的持股比例从 4.79%升至 9.25%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.17%/-0.44%/-0.65%/-1.62%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.13%/-0.77%/-1.38%/-3.89%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.18%/-1.20%/-2.09%/-5.23%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.17%/-0.20%/-0.20%/-0.49%。 【策略观点】 年初机构配置资金有望重新流入市场，加之政策支持资本市场的态度未变，中长期仍是逢低做多的思路 为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约收于 111.41 ，环比变化-0.35%；T 主力合约收于 107.86 ，环比变化 -0.07%；TF 主力合约收于 105.76 ，环比变化-0.04%；T ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Methanol: Current valuation is low, and the pattern will improve marginally next year. Although short - term downside risks remain, due to geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long on dips [3]. - Urea: The current domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, bearish fundamentals are coming, so take profits on rallies [6]. - Rubber: The current situation calls for a neutral approach and temporary observation. Partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [14]. - PVC: Fundamentally, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a historically low level, with short - term valuation pressure being small. However, supply reduction is limited, production is at a historical high, and domestic demand is in the off - season. In the short - term, strong sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium - term, the strategy is to go short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [16]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: Currently, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with a large upward repair space for valuation. Before the first quarter of next year, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - Polyethylene: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - induced decline to production mismatch. Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [22]. - Polypropylene: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [25]. - PX: Currently, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. Before the maintenance season, PX is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern. In the short - term, there is a large expected component in the market, so beware of correction risks. In the medium - term, look for opportunities to go long on dips [27]. - PTA: In the short - term, supply will maintain high - level maintenance. Demand for polyester and chemical fibers is under pressure, and due to the off - season, the load will gradually decline. After short - term inventory depletion, PTA will enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up stage. In the short - term, beware of corrections due to over - expectation, and in the medium - term, look for opportunities to go long on dips [30]. - Ethylene Glycol: The overall load is still relatively high. The port inventory build - up cycle will continue, and in the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of new device commissioning. Valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32]. Detailed Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - Futures Prices: As of the last trading day of the holidays, the INE main crude oil futures closed down 6.40 yuan/barrel, a 1.46% decline, at 432.20 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil closed down 37.00 yuan/ton (1.49%) at 2447.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 65.00 yuan/ton (2.17%) at 2935.00 yuan/ton [1]. - European ARA Data: Gasoline inventory increased by 1.38 million barrels to 10.52 million barrels (15.07% MoM), diesel inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels to 14.61 million barrels (0.81% MoM), fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 7.06 million barrels (5.60% MoM), naphtha inventory decreased by 0.83 million barrels to 4.63 million barrels (15.18% MoM), aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.36 million barrels to 7.82 million barrels (4.43% MoM), and the total refined oil inventory increased by 0.44 million barrels to 44.64 million barrels (1.00% MoM) [1]. Methanol - Spot Price Changes: Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 15 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 20 yuan/ton [2]. Urea - Spot Price Changes: Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 59 yuan/ton [5]. - Futures Price: The main contract changed by 6 yuan/ton, reported at 1749 yuan/ton [5]. Rubber - Price Movement: Rubber prices were in a sideways consolidation. Bulls expect price increases due to seasonal factors and demand expectations, while bears expect price decreases due to weak demand [10][11]. - Tire Industry: As of December 25, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong was 62.20%, down 2.46 ppts from last week and 0.02 ppts from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires was 73.74%, up 0.98 ppts from last week but down 5.05 ppts from the same period last year. Tire inventories were under high pressure [12]. - Inventory: As of December 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 118.2 million tons, a 2.5% increase MoM. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 77.4 million tons (3.4% increase), and that of light - colored rubber was 40.8 million tons (1% increase). The inventory in Qingdao was 50.92 (+1.5) million tons [12]. - Spot Prices: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14650 (0) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1855 (- 5) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1860 (0) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 8350 (0) yuan, and North China butadiene rubber was 11000 (0) yuan [13]. PVC - Futures and Spot Prices: The PVC05 contract fell 5 yuan to 4805 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4500 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 305 (+5) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 134 (- 1) yuan/ton [15]. - Cost and Supply: The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2325 (0) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 745 (0) dollars/ton, and caustic soda was 703 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase MoM; the calcium carbide method was 78.4% (0.1% decrease), and the ethylene method was 79.3% (5% increase) [15]. - Demand and Inventory: The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease MoM. Factory inventory was 30.9 million tons (+0.3), and social inventory was 106.3 million tons (+0.3) [15]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - Price and Basis: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5340 yuan/ton (unchanged), the closing price of the active contract was 5463 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the basis was - 123 yuan/ton (24 - yuan expansion). The spot price of styrene rose 50 yuan/ton to 6900 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 6791 yuan/ton, and the basis was 109 yuan/ton (40 - yuan strengthening) [18]. - Supply and Demand: The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.05 million tons to 13.88 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase. The operating rate of PS was 59.40% (4.90% increase), EPS was 52.56% (0.76% increase), and ABS was 69.40% (0.70% decrease) [18]. - Profit: The BZN spread was 133.37 yuan/ton (4 - yuan decrease), and the non - integrated device profit of EB was - 76.1 yuan/ton (40 - yuan increase) [18]. Polyethylene - Price and Basis: The closing price of the main contract rose 11 yuan/ton to 6472 yuan/ton, the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton to 6375 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97 yuan/ton (1 - yuan weakening) [21]. - Supply and Demand: The upstream operating rate was 82.27%, a 0.82% decrease MoM. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 8.79 million tons to 37.07 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.49 million tons to 2.76 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.15%, a 0.68% decrease MoM. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 37 yuan/ton (2 - yuan narrowing) [21]. Polypropylene - Price and Basis: The closing price of the main contract rose 27 yuan/ton to 6348 yuan/ton, the spot price was unchanged at 6275 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 73 yuan/ton (27 - yuan weakening) [23]. - Supply and Demand: The upstream operating rate was 75.65%, a 1.76% decrease MoM. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.45 million tons to 53.33 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.12 million tons to 6.87 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.24%, a 0.56% decrease MoM. The LL - PP spread was 124 yuan/ton (16 - yuan narrowing) [23][24]. PX - Futures and Spot Prices: The PX03 contract fell 56 yuan to 7260 yuan, PX CFR fell 1 dollar to 893 dollars, and the basis was - 25 yuan (+42). The 3 - 5 spread was - 6 yuan (+10) [26]. - Load and Inventory: China's PX load was 88.2%, a 0.1% increase; the Asian load was 79.5%, a 0.6% increase. In December, South Korea exported 28.3 million tons of PX to China, a 0.8 - million - ton increase YoY. The inventory at the end of November was 402 million tons, a 5 - million - ton decrease MoM [26]. - Valuation and Cost: PXN was 355 dollars (- 1), South Korea's PX - MX was 143 dollars (- 7), and the naphtha crack spread was 89 dollars (+3) [26]. PTA - Futures and Spot Prices: The PTA05 contract fell 34 yuan to 5110 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 5095 yuan, the basis was - 46 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was 100 yuan (- 18) [29]. - Load and Inventory: The PTA load was 72.5%, a 0.7% decrease. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. On December 26, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 205.5 million tons, a 5.2 - million - ton decrease [29]. - Valuation and Cost: The spot processing fee of PTA rose 4 yuan to 349 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 2 yuan to 347 yuan [29]. Ethylene Glycol - Futures and Spot Prices: The EG05 contract fell 44 yuan to 3803 yuan, the East China spot price fell 13 yuan to 3681 yuan, the basis was - 141 yuan (- 2), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 93 yuan (- 9) [31]. - Supply and Demand: The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a 1.4% increase. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The import arrival forecast was 10.7 million tons, and the East China departure on December 30 was 1.1 million tons. The port inventory was 73 million tons, a 1.4 - million - ton increase [31]. - Valuation and Cost: The naphtha - based profit was - 829 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 925 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 188 yuan. The cost of ethylene was flat at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 540 yuan [31].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-05 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消 ...