Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has been on an upward trend since April 9, but showed signs of fatigue by the end of the month, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.35% [1] - The U.S. is pushing for trade agreements with the EU and Japan, with Trump suggesting a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, later postponed to July 9 to allow for further negotiations [1][2] - Japan's shipbuilding industry is facing a downturn, with new ship orders expected to decline significantly in 2024, making negotiations with the U.S. challenging [2] Industry Insights - The Chinese shipbuilding industry remains dominant, with China Shipbuilding Industry Group showing strong order volumes and profitability, leading to a stock price increase of over 6% [2] - Trump's tariffs on non-U.S. manufactured electronics, including a 25% tariff on Apple and Samsung, are expected to negatively impact the consumer electronics sector [2] - The automotive sector is experiencing intense price competition, particularly with BYD's aggressive discounting strategy, raising concerns about profit margins across the industry [3] Energy Sector Developments - The U.S. plans to initiate the construction of 10 large nuclear power plants by 2030, aiming to quadruple nuclear capacity by 2050, which has positively impacted related stocks in Hong Kong [4] - Domestic coal prices have decreased, benefiting thermal power companies, with major players like Datang Power and Huadian International seeing stock price increases of nearly 3% [4] Aviation Industry Performance - Major airlines in China reported increased passenger turnover and capacity in April, with the Civil Aviation Administration noting significant year-on-year growth in transport metrics [6] - The decline in international oil prices is improving the cost structure for airlines, enhancing profit margins [6][7] Company-Specific Highlights - China Resources Power reported a 7.9% increase in electricity sales in April 2025, with significant growth in renewable energy sales, although its renewable energy core profit saw a slight decline [9] - The company aims to add 10 GW of wind and solar capacity by 2025, with ongoing projects expected to contribute to future growth [10]

FICC日报 | 2025-05-23 特朗普税收法案通过众议院，美国财政赤字担忧加剧 市场分析 短期关注经济事实验证。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，4月我国出口同比增长8.1%，进 口同比下降0.2%，整体略超预期，但分国别或区域来看，4月出口当月同比中，对美国-21%（前值为9.1%，下同）， 对东盟20.8%（11.6%）；分产品来看，劳动密集型产品出口受冲击明显，当月同比-1.7%（9.1%）。5月19日，中国 央行表示将抓好一揽子货币金融政策措施的落实和传导。5月20日，中国央行将一年期和五年期贷款市场报价利率 (LPR)分别从3.1%与3.6%下调至3%和3.5%。中国央行5月23日将开展5000亿元MLF操作。5月9日—12日何立峰副总 理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈，中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得实质进展，双方承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商 机制。重点关注原油，集运指数，黄金等对该事件敏感的商品。5月15日商务部例行发布会回应中方对美关税反制 措施调整，称因美方撤销对华加征关税而相应调整，并表明对中美经贸磋商机制持开放态度，双方将依日内瓦会 谈共识保持沟通。此外中方再次敦促美方 ...

Group 1 - The 21st China (Shenzhen) International Cultural Industries Fair will be held from May 22 to 26, with a significant "policy package" to support six key areas for high-quality cultural industry development [2] - The European Union plans to impose handling fees on small packages entering the EU, with China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs advocating for a fair and transparent business environment for Chinese enterprises [2] - China and the ten ASEAN countries have completed negotiations for the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, adding nine new chapters including digital economy and green economy [2] Group 2 - International gold prices rebounded on May 21, with domestic gold jewelry prices surpassing 1,000 yuan per gram, with notable increases from major retailers [3] - Several banks, including Ping An Bank and CITIC Bank, have lowered deposit rates, particularly for medium- and long-term deposits, with some banks suspending five-year term deposits [3] - A surge in A-share buyback and increase plans has been observed, with 394 companies announcing such plans since the second quarter of 2025, a rise of over 60% compared to the first quarter [3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 0.62%, with BYD shares rising over 4% to a new historical high, and southbound funds net buying exceeding 1.4 billion HKD [4] - UBS noted a growing international interest in Chinese assets, highlighting the strategic importance of the Chinese stock market for global investors seeking excess returns [4] Group 4 - Baidu reported Q1 revenue of 32.452 billion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, with a notable 42% growth in Baidu Smart Cloud [5] - Xpeng Motors achieved Q1 revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, a 141.5% year-on-year increase, with a projected delivery volume of 102,000 to 108,000 units in Q2 [5] - Weibo's Q1 revenue remained stable at 396.9 million USD, with a 12% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit [5] Group 5 - The stock price for Naxin Microelectronics was set at 163.15 yuan per share, with a subscription rate of 1.29 times from institutional investors [6] - The U.S. stock market saw declines across major indices, with significant drops in Chinese concept stocks such as iQIYI and Baidu [6]

金十数据5月16日讯，日本已发出信号，准备与美国总统唐特朗普在贸易关税问题上达成更好的协议， 而不是冒着国内政治反弹的风险达成协议。日本渴望避免与华盛顿的关系出现任何恶化，而日本首相石 破茂最初把先于其他国家进入美国谈判桌作为优先事项。但官员和分析师表示，商界领袖和石破茂所在 的自民党成员要求他拒绝任何危及汽车业或威胁国内农民的协议，这迫使他重新思考。"尽管日本非常 渴望成为第一个与华盛顿就关税问题展开谈判的国家，但 这种紧迫感现在已经转变，重点是确保日本 得到一份好协议，"一名日本官员表示。 官员们表示，目前不太可能在日本参议院选举前达成协议。日 本参议院选举将于7月底举行，预计对极不受欢迎的石破茂政府来说，这将是一大考验。 （英国金融时 报） 日本或无法在7月底之前与美国达成贸易协议 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-16 中美经贸磋商提速，全球贸易政策博弈持续 市场分析 短期关注经济事实验证。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，央行推出三大类共十项货币政 策措施，包括降准0.5个百分点，降低政策利率0.1个百分点，创设新的政策工具等；金融监管总局将推出八项增量 政策，涉房地产金融、险资入市、稳外贸等；证监会表示将"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，稳步推进市场对外开放。 值得注意的是，4月我国出口同比增长8.1%，进口同比下降0.2%，整体略超预期，但分国别或区域来看，4月出口 当月同比中，对美国-21%（前值为9.1%，下同），对东盟20.8%（11.6%）；分产品来看，劳动密集型产品出口受冲 击明显，当月同比-1.7%（9.1%）。5月14日央行发布 2025 年前四个月社会融资规模增量数据，显示金融对实体经 济支持力度加大。5月9日—12日何立峰副总理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈，中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得实质进 展，双方承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商机制。国务院关税税则委发布公告：自2025年5月14日12时01分起，对 美进口商品加征关税税率由34%降至10%，暂停24% ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在演讲中表示，随着经济和政策不断变动，长期利率可能会走高。他警告称："我们 可能正在进入一个供应冲击更频繁、可能更持久的时期——这对经济和央行来说都是一个艰巨的挑 战。"美联储将重新审视政策框架。 美国与卡塔尔签署超2435亿美元经济及军事合作协议。卡塔尔投资局计划在未来十年内向美国追加5000 亿美元的投资。 特朗普：希望苹果停止将iPhone产业转移到印度。 李强：把做强国内大循环作为推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。 美股方面，三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.65%，标普500指数涨0.41%，纳指跌0.18%。 大型科技股多数下跌，亚马逊、Meta跌超2%，特斯拉跌超1%，苹果、英伟达、谷歌小幅下跌；奈飞涨 超2%，微软、英特尔小幅上涨。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌2.37%。网易大涨超14%，股价逼近历史新高；向上 融科跌超8%，阿里巴巴、文远知行跌逾7%，富途控股跌超5%，京东、百度、蔚来跌逾3%。 | | | 隔夜美股概览 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 道琼斯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] Core Viewpoints - Financial data is positive, supporting the real economy [1] - Short - term focus is on economic fact verification, and attention should be paid to global trade policy games [2][3] - The US May FOMC meeting maintained the target interest rate, and inflation pressure has further eased [4] - For commodities, pay attention to the transmission of fundamentals in the follow - up and stagflation allocation in the long - term [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, and One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. The central bank launched ten monetary policy measures in three major categories, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 - percentage - point policy interest rate cut [2] - In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21%, while those to ASEAN increased by 20.8%. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted [2] - From January to April 2025, the incremental social financing scale increased, indicating greater financial support for the real economy [2] - The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. China reduced the tariff rate on US - imported goods from 34% to 10% and suspended 24% of additional tariffs for 90 days [2] - On May 14, the A - share market fluctuated upward, and sectors such as large - scale finance led the Shanghai Composite Index to regain 3,400 points [2] Global Trade Policy - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with a "tax rate + volume" restriction approach. This may impact global trade, and negotiations with other countries are still ongoing [3] - India countered the Trump tariff policy by imposing tariffs on some US products [3] - Based on the 2018 - 2019 situation, if the weighted average import tariff rate is adjusted downward, the expected upward pressure on long - term inflation will also be reduced [3] US Interest Rate Policy - The US May FOMC meeting statement maintained the target interest rate. Economic prospects are more uncertain, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased [4] - The US April CPI data in May was lower than expected, indicating further alleviation of inflation pressure, but the impact of tariffs has not fully reached the consumer end [4] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff increase event first led to a decline in demand trading and then an increase in inflation trading. Industrial products need to be vigilant against the emotional impact of US stock adjustments, while agricultural products are more likely to have upward price fluctuations [5] - China has stopped purchasing US soybeans and corn since mid - January and increased purchases from Brazil [5] - Crude oil prices have declined, and OPEC + plans to increase production in June and may continue in July, with a relatively loose medium - term supply [5] - Due to policy uncertainties and trade policy games, there is a risk of a short - term correction in gold [5] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] Important News - From January to April 2025, the cumulative incremental social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [8] - Starting from 12:01 on May 14, China adjusted the tariff increase measures on US - imported goods, reducing the tariff rate from 34% to 10% and suspending 24% of additional tariffs for 90 days [9] - The State Council issued the "Legislative Work Plan for 2025", including drafts of the National Development Planning Law, the Financial Law, and revisions to the Tendering and Bidding Law [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, maintain a cautious long position for the four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in A - shares; maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude for commodities and government bonds. The ranking is: stock index > government bonds > commodities. Among commodities, the ranking is: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, far exceeding expectations, and the trade surplus was 96.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 34%. China and the US will hold trade talks, and the central bank has unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 10BP, which will boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Internationally, the US economic activities are still expanding steadily, the US - UK has reached a limited trade agreement, and the US - China trade negotiation has made progress. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the dollar rebounds in the short term, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - On May 5th, the US President announced to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US and will announce tariff measures on pharmaceutical products in the next two weeks. On May 6th, the US March trade deficit widened to a record 140.5 billion US dollars, and the US refused to cancel some tariffs on Japan. On May 7th, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US and the EU are in trade negotiations. On May 8th, the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. On May 9th, the US President said that the US and China will conduct substantial trade negotiations this weekend, and the current 145% tariff on China will be lowered [3][4][5][6][10] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From May 12th to May 16th, there will be a series of industrial data releases, including electrolytic aluminum inventory, iron ore shipping and arrival volume, etc., as well as important economic data such as the US CPI, PPI, and GDP data of various countries [11] 3.3 Global Asset Price Trends - Stock markets: Different stock indices in various countries have different price trends and changes. Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries have different fluctuations. Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy have different changes. Exchange rate markets: Exchange rates of major currencies have different degrees of fluctuations [12] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Includes data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal inventories, and iron ore prices. Mid - stream: Covers data on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and inventory, and chemical product prices and inventory. Downstream: Involves data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales, and agricultural product prices [13][42][71] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: Shown by the US Treasury yield curve. Domestic liquidity: Reflected by central bank open - market operations, inter - bank lending rates, and bond yields [82][84] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From May 13th to May 16th, there are important economic data releases in the EU, the US, Germany, Japan, etc., including CPI, PPI, GDP, and other data [105]

Group 1 - The newly launched financial policy package includes quantitative, price, and structural measures aimed at addressing key points of economic development, accelerating the release of China's market potential [1][2] - A 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio will release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, providing continuous funding support for the real economy [2][3] - The policy also includes a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates, which will lower financing costs for enterprises and residents, stimulating investment and consumption [2][3] Group 2 - The financial policy increases the re-lending quota for technological innovation and technical transformation, providing strong funding support for innovative enterprises [3] - Establishing "service consumption and pension re-lending" aims to promote the prosperity of the service consumption and pension industries [3] - The policy optimizes monetary policy tools to support the capital market, creating risk-sharing instruments for technology innovation bonds, enhancing market vitality [3]

国际新闻： 1. 美联储连续第三次维持利率不变，声明中强调通胀和失业率上升的风险走高。鲍威尔高呼不确定性因 素以及继续观望等待的成本很低，表示不急于降息。鲍威尔还称无意主动与特朗普会晤，后者的降息呼 吁无碍美联储的工作。 6. 印巴局势-①印度将在拉贾斯坦邦靠近国际边界的地区开展大规模空战演习 ②印度方面表示，如果巴 基斯坦对袭击做出回应，印度也将做出回应 ③以色列驻印度大使：以色列"支持印度的自卫权" ④巴防 长：正试图避免一场"全面战争"。 金十数据整理：昨日今晨重要新闻汇总（5月8日） 国内新闻： 1. "一行一局一会"重磅发声 降准降息等多项稳市措施发布。 2. 习近平抵达莫斯科对俄罗斯进行国事访问并出席纪念苏联伟大卫国战争胜利80周年庆典。 3. 中国央行连续第六个月增持黄金。 4. A股4月新开户192万户，同比增长31%。 5. 证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》。 6. 极氪拟被私有化并从美股退市，李书福：回归一个吉利。 7. 何立峰会见阿联酋阿布扎比投资局管理委员会主席马吉德。 8. 外交部：呼吁印巴双方以和平稳定大局为重，保持冷静克制。 9. 外交部回应中美经贸高层会谈：这次会谈 ...