12月29日恒生指数下跌0.71%，南向资金全天合计成交金额为1151.58亿港元，其中，买入成交558.72亿 港元，卖出成交592.86亿港元，合计净卖出金额34.14亿港元。具体来看，港股通（深）累计成交金额 442.12亿港元，买入成交205.64亿港元，卖出成交236.48亿港元，合计净卖出金额30.84亿港元；港股通 （沪）累计成交金额709.46亿港元，买入成交353.08亿港元，卖出成交356.38亿港元，合计净卖出金额 3.31亿港元。 成交活跃股方面，今日上榜个股中，南向资金成交金额最多的是阿里巴巴-W，合计成交额66.55亿港 元，腾讯控股、中芯国际成交额紧随其后，分别成交60.71亿港元、51.50亿港元。以净买卖金额统计， 净买入的个股共有3只，招商银行净买入额为9.71亿港元，净买入金额居首，该股收盘股价上涨1.07%， 华虹半导体净买入额为2.62亿港元，江西铜业股份净买入额为2259.48万港元。净卖出金额最多的是中国 移动，净卖出14.50亿港元，该股收盘股价下跌1.21%，阿里巴巴-W、紫金矿业遭净卖出10.24亿港元、 6.22亿港元。 今日上榜个股中，中芯国际、优必选、 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 大中小盘股都下跌。 上周A股大幅反弹，上周2.7%，领涨全球。今天A股迎来回调。 价值风格波动相对较小。 成长风格下跌多一些，创业板下跌0.66%。 港股上午上涨，到收盘也变成下跌。 港股恒生指数下跌0.71%。港股科技股略微下跌，波动不大。 1. 前两天看了一个新闻，说港股的IPO融资额，今年变成了全球第一。 今天大盘盘中上涨，到收盘的时候变成下跌，还在4.1星。 对投资者，是买入优质股份的好时候。 这对港股有啥影响么？ 融资和投资，是一体两面。 （1）在熊市的时候，市场估值比较低，股息分红比较多。 但是对企业的创始人和股东来说，熊市卖股份不是太好的选择。 所以在熊市市场估值低的时候，IPO或者再融资，都不会太多。 以A股为例， 2024年，A股最低到了5.9星。 在熊市底部，新股IPO融资只有673亿，加上增发融资等，融资总额在2880亿上下。 2024年A股的分红总额达到2.4万亿。 （2）到了牛市的时候，市场估值会大幅提升。 其实股票资产的投资价值，随着上涨是在下降的。 甚至出现高估的时候，要做好止盈。 对融资者来说，股价上涨之后，那相同的股份，可以融资到更多的 ...

会议指出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度。二是优化政府债券工具 组合，更好发挥债券效益。三是提高转移支付资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。四是持续优化支出结构，强化重点领 域保障。五是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。 全国财政工作会议12月27日至28日在北京召开。财政部部长蓝佛安表示，明年财政将大力提振消费。深入实施提振消费 专项行动，继续安排资金支持消费品以旧换新，调整优化补贴范围和标准。 ...

宏观 增长动能巩固，名义增速修复 ——2026 年宏观经济形势展望 投资要点： 分析师： 2026 年我国经济仍有望保持 5%的合理增速。首先，经济增长风险总体 降低。关税不确定性缓和及全球经济增长支撑出口韧性；2025 年下半年房地 产投资跌幅扩大有望促进地产层面积极政策出台，商品房销售端有望率先企 稳，地产投资跌幅随后收窄，对经济拖累缓和。其次，增长动能主要在消费、 基建投资及制造业提质升级，这几方面增速都有望高于 2025 年。消费方面 政策红利延续，商品消费支持方向扩容，服务消费、新型消费进一步形成新 的增长点。设备更新改造需求仍支撑制造业投资，科技创新及新技术投资加 快贡献增量。基建投资增速有望企稳回升，新型基建、公共服务领域投资及 安全领域投资成为核心拉动。再次，政策延续"积极有为"，更强调协同性、 灵活性。加大逆周期调节力度和强调跨周期调节两者时间维度以及解决的问 题不同，并不冲突。逆周期更侧重短期维度，有利于保障"十五五"开局之 年经济处于合理增速。 与 2025 年相比，2026 年经济增速波动幅度将显著缩小，经济运行的稳 定性将进一步提升。2025 年四季度推出的接续性政策有望在 2026 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that dividend assets are gaining attention in the current market due to their certainty of returns and defensive characteristics, especially in a rising valuation environment and declining risk-free interest rates [1] - The market shows structural characteristics where some blue-chip stocks have limited price increases but offer attractive dividend yields of 3%-4% combined with annual growth expectations of 5%-10% [1] - Traditional dividend ETFs have seen their dividend yields exceed 5% again, significantly higher than the domestic ten-year government bond yield of less than 2% [1] Group 2 - Among various dividend strategies, the CSI Dividend ETF (515080.SH) is a classic high-dividend representative focusing on energy and finance, currently offering a dividend yield over 5% and demonstrating strong defensive characteristics in bear markets [2] - The CSI Dividend Quality ETF (159209.SZ) emphasizes "growth" and "profit quality," focusing on consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, with its total return index rising over 20% this year, led by Kweichow Moutai as its largest weighted stock [2] - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550.SH) focuses on "high dividends" and "stability," with its total return index increasing over 28% this year, making it an ideal defensive choice during market fluctuations [3] Group 3 - For conservative investors, a combination of "A-share Dividend Quality (growth offensive) + Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility (high-yield defensive)" is recommended, achieving dual diversification across markets and strategy factors [5] - Both products are characterized by low fees and monthly dividends, making them suitable for long-term holding to smooth out volatility and secure predictable returns [5]

【宏观动态】 11月工业企业利润同比增速续降至-13.1%，与当月出口的走强出现明显分化，整体内需动能趋弱。 美联储12月会议纪要公布在即，内部"强烈分歧"或继续揭示；特朗普或在1月第一周指定美联储新主席 人选。 十四届全国人大四次会议将于2026年3月5日在北京召开。 【卫星互联网】 商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准细化规则发布，要求申报时至少实现可重复使用火箭成功入 轨。 行情扩散至材料环节：封装、固体发动机材料、全氟聚醚润滑油、涂层及轻量化材料受关注。 周末市场关注度数据显示，商业航天板块拥挤度已突破20%。 美股商业航天概念股集体调整。 相关ETF： 卫星产业ETF(场内：159218) 【有色金属】 观点更新：AGI时间表被推迟至2030年代，但AI普及不会延迟，2026年将见证更多AI应用营收突破。 相关ETF： 云计算ETF(场内：159890)、半导体设备ETF(场内：561980)、TMT50ETF(场内：159909)、 软件龙头ETF(场内：159899) 【新能源】 宁德时代：2026年将在换电、乘用车、商用车、储能等领域大规模应用钠电池，形成"钠锂双星"趋势。 网传外资观点总结： ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the dual momentum of confidence and opportunity in China's capital market in 2025, marked by the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points and a resurgence in Hong Kong IPOs [2][3] - The A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull" phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high and trading volumes frequently exceeding 3 trillion yuan [3][5] - The central government is playing a stabilizing role through the Central Huijin Investment and the People's Bank of China, which provides sufficient re-lending support, creating a "dual insurance" model for market stability [5][6] Group 2 - Insurance capital is increasing its allocation to A-shares, with the Financial Regulatory Bureau approving a 60 billion yuan pilot quota for long-term investments, and large state-owned insurance companies allocating 30% of new premiums to A-share investments [6][7] - The implementation of the revised "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures" has led to a significant increase in the number of major asset restructurings, with 90 new cases in the Shanghai market and 109 in the Shenzhen market [8][9] - The listing of domestic GPU companies has sparked a record-breaking enthusiasm for new stock subscriptions, with the first domestic GPU stock, Moore Threads, achieving a first-day increase of 468.78% and a subscription multiple of 1572 times [10] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a strong recovery, with IPO fundraising reaching approximately 260 billion HKD, marking its return to the top of global financing [11][12] - Southbound funds have net inflows exceeding 1.28 trillion yuan, indicating strong liquidity support for the Hong Kong market and a recognition of valuation advantages by mainland investors [13][14] - The Hong Kong government has proposed multiple reforms to enhance market vitality and competitiveness, including shortening the stock settlement cycle and improving the "same share different rights" listing regulations [14][15]

提效向绿扩需 重塑中国腹地增长极 中部六省"十五五"谋变： 能源是工业的"粮食"。在"双碳"目标约束和全国碳市场机制逐步完善的背景下，中部六省将能源转型视 为构建现代化产业体系的关键抓手。 ◎记者 荆淮侨 近日，山西、河南、湖北、湖南、安徽、江西等中部六省相继发布了各自的"十五五"规划建议全文。在 加快构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展的战略背景下，中部各省以《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会 发展第十五个五年规划的建议》为纲领，系统谋划区域发展新路径。各省聚焦粮食安全、能源转型及扩 大内需等关键领域，既立足资源禀赋，又强化创新驱动，在农业现代化、绿色低碳转型和消费场景创新 等方面协同发力，着力打造新时代中国式现代化的"中部样板"。 中部六省占全国土地面积的10.7%，承载了全国28.1%的人口，创造了全国约21.9%的GDP。同时，中部 地区地处中国腹地，承东启西、连南接北，具有枢纽中心地位，交通网络发达、粮食和能源资源丰富、 产业基础成熟。2024年5月，中共中央政治局召开会议，审议《新时代推动中部地区加快崛起的若干政 策措施》。会议指出，要始终紧扣中部地区作为重要粮食生产基地、能源原材料基地、现代装备制造及 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong year-end rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight-day consecutive rise, and trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets returning to 2 trillion yuan, indicating a potential "spring rally" in the near future [4][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market is showing signs of a "small rally" as it approaches the year-end, with significant trading volume and a notable rise in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, lithium mining, and commercial aerospace [8]. - The recent upward movement in the index is primarily driven by cyclical sectors, particularly non-ferrous metals, reflecting a recovery in market risk appetite [9]. - The current market environment is characterized by a "bottom consolidation" phase, preparing for a potential rally before the Spring Festival, rather than a full-blown upward trend [9]. Group 2: Capital Flow and Investment Strategies - Institutional buying power is expected to strengthen, driven by favorable policy expectations and a stable economic backdrop, with a notable increase in inflows into stock ETFs [10]. - The weak dollar and the appreciation of the RMB are enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets, leading to increased foreign investment [10]. - There is a strong willingness among various funds to enter the market, particularly as the new year approaches, indicating a potential continuation of the "spring rally" [11]. Group 3: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - High-growth sectors such as optical modules, PCB, and short-term supply-constrained areas like optical chips and high-speed copper cables are recommended for investment [12]. - The "price increase" narrative is acting as a catalyst for the current rally, with significant inflows into broad-based ETFs and a focus on sectors like chemicals and new energy materials [13]. - The consumption sector is also highlighted as a potential area for investment, given its relative underperformance this year and the supportive policy environment [16].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally driven by liquidity, policy expectations, and structural opportunities, with a focus on sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and non-bank financials [5][10][12]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with communication and non-ferrous metals being traditional favorites, while new themes like commercial aerospace are gaining traction [3]. - The A-share market is showing signs of a spring rally, supported by liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a focus on sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing [5][10]. - The market is expected to maintain a high risk appetite due to favorable conditions, including a weak dollar and the upcoming Chinese New Year and Two Sessions [11][16]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include AI, commercial aerospace, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to benefit from structural changes and increased demand [10][12]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in chemicals and engineering machinery, is showing signs of recovery and is expected to benefit from the shift in global competition [3][4]. - Non-bank financials, including insurance and brokerage firms, are positioned to benefit from the anticipated capital inflows and improved asset returns [9][12]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Factors - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lower import costs and enhance domestic purchasing power, benefiting sectors reliant on imports and domestic consumption [7][9]. - The potential for significant capital inflows due to RMB appreciation could lead to a revaluation of Chinese assets, creating a favorable environment for investment [7][9]. - The overall economic environment is improving, with expectations of continued liquidity support and a stable policy backdrop, which is conducive to market growth [5][10].