Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance on February 4, with active movements in the consumer, real estate, and innovative pharmaceutical sectors, while large technology stocks collectively declined. Southbound funds recorded a net purchase exceeding 13 billion HKD throughout the day. Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer theme index under the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect rose by 1.0% [1] - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect medical and health comprehensive index increased by 0.5% [1] - The Hang Seng New Economy Index fell by 0.9% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 1.8% [1] - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index dropped by 2.4% [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The consumer theme index consists of 50 large-cap consumer stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with over 65% of the index composed of discretionary consumption [4] - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio of the consumer theme index is 17.7 times, with a valuation percentile of 1.9% since its inception in 2020 [4]

2026.02. 04 本文字数：1515，阅读时长大约3分钟 分行业来看，全球工业与服务业领域有14%的受访企业将中国内地列为前三大投资目的地，较上年上升；能源、公用事业与资源行业次之，比例由上年 的10%升至13%；消费市场比例持平。除医疗健康行业较上年略有下降外，其他大部分行业的这一比例均有所提升。 在全球科技竞争加剧与AI（人工智能）变革提速的浪潮中，创新已成为中企应对不确定性的首要议题，18%的内地和22%的香港CEO最关心公司的创新 能力是否足以应对充满不确定性的未来。中企已将创新置于战略核心，并展现出领先全球的执行力度，其创新实践的整体推进力度远超全球平均水平。 作者 | 第一财经 缪琦 虽然中国企业家当前及短期面临一定的营收压力，但对未来三年持乐观态度。 普华永道于2月4日发布的《第29期全球CEO调研中国报告：创新突围 韧性生长》（下称"报告"）显示，中国CEO（内地及香港）对于未来一年全球经 济增长的信心领跑全球，连续三年上调对全球经济增长的预期。其中，67%看好未来12个月全球经济增速持续回升，信心水平高于61%的全球平均水 平。 普华永道中国公共事务主管合伙人周星表示，全球企业家对于短 ...

美国：沃什提名后引发了反向交易 国信证券主要观点如下： 当市场预期全年降息的逻辑过于一致时，沃什的提名引发了缩表的预期并带来了美元指数的反弹。当下 为此担忧还尚早，由于美国上半年的时薪、消费、就业压力均较大，且上半年通胀的压力不大，故而降 息的必要性依然较高；另外，关于缩表的更多信息要到5月份主席换届之后才将逐渐清晰。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，1月美股上涨幅度显著小于新兴市场，将美元指数反弹看成 是阶段性，26年上半年依然认为新兴市场机会更大。但有两个风险需要跟踪：一是原油价格因地缘冲突 的大幅上涨；二是长债利率继续向上大幅攀升。美元指数反弹，美债利率上行一定程度上对港股的资金 面产生负面影响。但人民币升值依旧，港股业绩稳健上修，以及并不认为美元指数反弹能够持续，故而 依然看好港股后续的行情。板块方面，建议关注AI、PPI方向原材料及工业等。 1、AI方向：AI方向产生分化，景气部分是半导体、云计算、算力链，而应用方向短期受到外卖战、去 年筹码较为拥挤的影响表现不佳，随着外卖战的减弱以及价格的回调，加之大模型应用场景的不断丰 富，AI应用依然是2026年的战略方向之一。 2、PPI方向的原材料 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of capturing investment opportunities aligned with China's 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on high-quality development and technological self-reliance [1][2] Investment Strategies - The investment landscape for 2026 is shaped by the "14th Five-Year Plan," which serves as a guiding framework for strategic investments, emphasizing high-quality development and innovation [2] - Key investment opportunities are identified in three main sectors: traditional industries (e.g., chemicals, shipbuilding), emerging industries (e.g., AI, energy storage), and frontier technologies (e.g., embodied intelligence, nuclear fusion) [2] Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies are expected to experience significant growth, with the total amount of License-out agreements projected to exceed $121.6 billion by 2025, doubling from 2024 [3] - The introduction of AI models is anticipated to shorten drug development cycles and enhance success rates, leading to a revaluation of the innovative drug sector [3] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed positively, with major investment banks highlighting the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy, making it a preferred choice for asset allocation [4][5] - The analysis of Hong Kong tech assets reveals two main investment themes: a return to EPS growth and cash flow recovery, alongside a focus on leading internet platforms and emerging industries like smart driving [5] AI Industry Insights - AI is positioned as a transformative force comparable to previous industrial revolutions, with significant growth potential as applications become more widespread [6] - The commercialization of AI applications, particularly in smart driving and robotics, is expected to gain momentum, presenting investment opportunities in related companies [6] Renewable Energy Sector - The renewable energy sector is forecasted to continue its upward trend, with significant opportunities in lithium battery technology and new materials, particularly solid-state batteries [7] - The chemical industry is also expected to see a recovery in profitability, driven by demand growth and supply-side reforms [7] Financial and Real Estate Sector - The financial and real estate sectors are showing signs of recovery, with a rebound in second-hand housing transactions and improved profitability for insurance companies [8] - Investment opportunities are emerging in quality real estate firms and banks with strong wealth management capabilities [8] Consumer Sector Trends - The consumer sector is experiencing a shift, with new growth areas such as smart home products and outdoor lifestyle gaining traction [11] - The changing demographics and consumer preferences are expected to drive growth in sectors like travel, healthcare, and wellness [11] Fixed Income Investment Strategies - The fixed income market is anticipated to remain stable, with a focus on short-term and medium-term bond funds for liquidity and steady growth [14] - The overall bond market is expected to exhibit a fluctuating pattern, influenced by monetary policy and economic data [14]

Core Viewpoint - The market showed a rebound today, with the overall index rising after a previous decline, indicating a potential recovery phase in the market [1][4]. Market Performance - The market opened lower but closed higher, returning to a 3.9 star rating [2]. - The small and medium-cap indices, which had previously dropped significantly, saw a notable increase today [4]. - The value style had a strong performance in the past two weeks but has recently corrected, with a slight uptick today [6]. - Growth styles, such as the ChiNext, experienced gains today [7]. - The Hong Kong stock market also saw a slight increase, contrasting with the A-share market [8][9]. Investment Strategies - The active and index combination remains at normal valuation, leading to a pause in subscription [3]. - Some indices have reached high valuation levels, presenting potential profit-taking opportunities [19]. - The company has initiated a phased profit-taking strategy for certain funds, selling 10% of holdings weekly to gradually realize gains [20][22][24]. - Specific funds, such as the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 Low Volatility, have shown significant returns, with profit-taking executed at approximately 71% to 90% gains [22][24]. Fund Management - The company has introduced a new fee structure for advisory services, capping annual fees at 360 yuan regardless of the number of advisory combinations held [19]. - The company continues to promote personal pension fund investments, highlighting the importance of regular contributions for retirement planning [19][16]. Valuation Insights - A valuation table was provided, indicating various indices' price-to-earnings ratios, dividend yields, and return on equity, which can guide investment decisions [17][30]. - The valuation table categorizes indices into different investment stages, with green indicating undervalued, yellow for normal, and red for overvalued [34].

从上周三开始，印尼股市出现极端剧烈波动，市场恐慌情绪集中释放，发生史诗级股灾惨案。 雅加达综合指数（JKSE）在1月28日至29日累计跌幅逼近16%，市场总市值累计蒸发超800亿美元，创下1998年亚洲金融危机以来的最大两日跌幅，引发 全球金融市场关注。 市场调整态势并未即时缓解，昨天，受全球"黑色星期一"影响，雅加达综合指数再度下挫近5%，收报7922点，市场呈现普跌格局。当日下跌个股达715 只，上涨个股仅65只，各行业板块全面承压。其中，基础材料板块跌幅达11.19%，能源板块与可选消费板块跌幅均接近8%，权重板块的大幅调整进一步 拖累指数表现。 此次股灾不仅引发市场剧烈波动，更导致印尼金融监管高层出现密集人事变动。印尼证券交易所（IDX）首席执行官伊曼・拉赫曼（Iman Rachman）和印 尼金融服务管理局（OJK）主席马亨德拉・西雷加尔（Mahendra Siregar）先后宣布引咎辞职，印尼金融监管体系面临阶段性调整。 作为东南亚最大经济体，印尼是全球新兴市场的重要组成部分，亦是金砖合作机制的核心成员之一。此次股灾不仅对印尼国内金融体系稳定性构成冲击， 更引发国际投资者对新兴市场投资价值与抗风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai's economy is showing resilience with a GDP growth of 5.4% in 2025, exceeding expectations, and a clear target of 5% growth for 2026, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and external trade stability [5][8]. Economic Performance - Shanghai's GDP reached 5.67 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.4%, outperforming expectations [5]. - The total import and export volume reached 4.51 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with exports increasing by 10.8% [5]. - Actual foreign investment amounted to 16.06 billion USD, equivalent to 114.8 billion yuan [5]. Foreign Trade and Investment - Shanghai's foreign trade achieved counter-cyclical growth, attributed to targeted policies and diversified trade partnerships, with imports and exports to ASEAN and Belt and Road countries growing by 10.4% and 12.1%, respectively [6]. - The city has implemented measures to support foreign investment, including a plan to encourage reinvestment by foreign enterprises and the establishment of foreign-funded projects in key sectors like new energy vehicles and biomedicine [6][11]. Future Economic Goals - The government aims for a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, focusing on enhancing domestic demand and integrating consumption and investment strategies [9]. - Plans include boosting consumption through various initiatives, such as enhancing service consumption and promoting tourism, while also stabilizing foreign trade and investment [10][11]. Five-Year Plan and Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines ambitious goals for Shanghai, including doubling per capita GDP from 2020 levels by 2035 and achieving significant advancements in high-quality development and urban governance [13][14]. - The plan emphasizes the development of five centers: international economic, trade, shipping, financial, and technological innovation centers, with a focus on enhancing the service sector and fostering world-class enterprises [15][16]. Collaborative Development - The government stresses the importance of synergistic development among the five centers to enhance overall effectiveness and regional coordination [17].

2026年A股年度策略报告 2026年2月3日 AI 兴，再通胀，驭慢牛 2026年A股年度策略报告 庞庞庞 庞庞庞 SAC 庞庞庞庞庞S0640515120001 庞庞庞庞庞010-59562478 庞庞庞dongzy@avicsec .com 2 ➢ 全球政经格局来看 ，2025 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 ➢ 从大类资产中长期角度看 ，2025年进一步确认了全球两大趋势 ，即逆全球化与 AI科技革命，未来或将至少持续 5-10年。 美元或已进入长期贬值周期 ，全球商品有望进入新一轮 "超级周期"，黄金、铜以及部分小金属等资源品价格或将持 续上涨。 ➢ 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞A 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞A 股有望步入长 ...

Economic Growth and Trade - Shanghai's GDP reached 5.67 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4%, exceeding expectations [2] - The total import and export volume reached 4.51 trillion yuan, with exports increasing by 10.8% [2] - Actual foreign investment amounted to 16.06 billion USD, equivalent to 114.8 billion yuan [2] Foreign Trade and Investment - Shanghai's foreign trade achieved growth due to targeted policies and trade diversification [3] - In 2025, imports and exports to ASEAN and Belt and Road countries are expected to grow by 10.4% and 12.1%, respectively [3] - Shanghai remains a favored destination for foreign investment, with significant projects in sectors like new energy vehicles and biomedicine [3] Economic Goals and Strategies - The GDP growth target for this year is set at around 5% [4] - Emphasis on strengthening domestic demand and enhancing the role of consumption and investment [4] - Plans to boost consumption and stabilize foreign trade and investment, while promoting high-quality development of state-owned and private enterprises [5] Five-Year Plan and Future Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for Shanghai's per capita GDP to double by 2035 compared to 2020 [6] - Key tasks include accelerating the construction of the "Five Centers" and promoting high-level reform and opening up [7] - The "Five Centers" encompass international economic, trade, shipping, financial, and innovation centers, with a focus on enhancing service quality and fostering world-class enterprises [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a strong performance driven by high-end manufacturing and hard technology sectors, while the Hong Kong market exhibits a divergence with weak technology stocks, indicating a structural differentiation influenced by macroeconomic and policy factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: A-share Market Performance - Major A-share indices, except for the Sci-Tech 50, recorded gains, with the Shenzhen Component Index leading at +0.93% and a total trading volume of 1.604 trillion yuan [1]. - The top gainers in A-shares include sectors such as defense and military (+3.71%), machinery equipment (+2.58%), and power equipment (+2.15%), while traditional sectors like banking and oil & gas saw declines [1][2]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market displayed a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index nearly flat and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 1.48%, highlighting a contrast with the A-share market [1]. - The weakness in Hong Kong's technology stocks is attributed to their offshore market nature, influenced by both domestic fundamentals and global liquidity expectations, particularly regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [3]. Group 3: Sector Insights - The rise of the defense and military sector is linked to increased geopolitical uncertainties and expectations for accelerated equipment procurement under the "14th Five-Year Plan," providing long-term visibility and certainty [2]. - The demand for new energy infrastructure under the "dual carbon" goals and recent government initiatives for large-scale equipment updates are expected to inject substantial growth into related industries [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The main investment themes in the A-share market remain intact, focusing on policy-driven and growth-oriented sectors like military, high-end manufacturing, and new energy [4]. - In the Hong Kong market, the valuation pressures on technology stocks are likely to persist until clearer overseas policy signals or stronger mainland economic data emerge to boost risk appetite [4].