Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luzhou Laojiao is maintained at "Buy" [1][5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.47 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue decline of 16.9% year-on-year, with a net profit decrease of 29.9% [5][6]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, and a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [5]. - The company is focusing on long-term healthy development by adjusting growth expectations based on product pricing and market order, maintaining a long-term perspective [5]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company’s mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 27.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with sales volume increasing by 14.4% and price decreasing by 10.2% [6]. - The company’s sales cash collection in 2024 was 40.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, which was higher than the revenue growth rate [7]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 87.5%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 43.2% [8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 9.47 yuan, with net profits expected to be 13.94 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with main products maintaining positive growth, leading to the "Outperform" rating being upheld [4] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [4] - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, with projected net profits of 1.67 billion yuan, 1.74 billion yuan, and 1.81 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 0.7%, 4.0%, and 4.1% respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, and a net profit of 340 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% [4] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and a net profit of 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [4] - The company's high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor segments achieved revenues of 5.68 billion yuan, 68 million yuan, and 126 million yuan in 2024, with year-on-year changes of +0.06%, -10.35%, and +33.01% respectively [5] Cash Flow and Profitability - The company demonstrated good cash flow performance, with sales cash receipts of 6.45 billion yuan in 2024 and 1.20 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting year-on-year changes of +11.3% and -14.8% respectively [6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 74.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 27.5%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [7] - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 76.2%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 33.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [7] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 35.61 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 21.37 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 21.30 billion yuan [1] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.78 yuan, 2.89 yuan, and 3.01 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12.6, 12.1, and 11.6 [4][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is maintained as "Buy" [1][5][16] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded market expectations, with total revenue reaching 51.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year [5] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 95.6 billion, 105.9 billion, and 114.4 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 10.9%, 10.7%, and 8.1% respectively [5][10] - The report highlights strong growth in both Moutai liquor and series liquor, with revenues of 43.56 billion yuan (up 9.7%) and 7.02 billion yuan (up 18.3%) respectively in Q1 2025 [6] - Direct sales channels showed significant growth, with revenues of 23.22 billion yuan (up 20.2%), driven by strong performance in corporate group purchases [7] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a cash flow from sales of 56.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, indicating strong cash flow performance [8] - The gross margin slightly decreased to 91.97%, while the net margin improved to 52.19%, reflecting effective cost management [8] - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 194.33 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 1,547 yuan [1][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year. The Q1 of 2025 showed better-than-expected performance with a revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, a 10.38% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.78% year-on-year. The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduces a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 5.889 billion, 6.603 billion, and 7.382 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.7%, 12.2%, and 11.8% [6][11][13] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company maintained a gross margin of 79.9%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The selling and administrative expense ratios decreased by 0.6 percentage points each to 26.2% and 6.1%, respectively. The net profit margin for 2024 was 23.4%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the selling and administrative expense ratios were 26.6% and 4.4%, respectively, with a net profit margin of 25.5%, reflecting continuous improvement in profitability [9][11][13] Revenue Structure - The revenue from different product lines in 2024 was as follows: Year Original Pulp at 18.086 billion yuan (up 17.31%), Gujing Gongjiu at 2.241 billion yuan (up 11.17%), and Huanghelou and others at 2.538 billion yuan (up 15.08%). The report anticipates double-digit growth for the Happiness Edition and Gu 5, with Gu 20 also expected to see double-digit growth, while Gu 7, Gu 8, and Gu 16 are projected to exceed the average growth rate of Year Original Pulp [7] Contract Liabilities and Sales - As of the end of Q4 2024, contract liabilities stood at 3.515 billion yuan, an increase of 1.579 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter. By the end of Q1 2025, contract liabilities rose to 3.674 billion yuan, reflecting strong brand loyalty and confidence from the distribution channels. Sales cash receipts for 2024 totaled 23.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, while Q1 2025 sales cash receipts were 8.23 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year's Spring Festival sales [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Gujing Gongjiu is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Gujing Gongjiu achieved a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year. The Q1 of 2025 showed better-than-expected performance with a revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, a 10.38% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.78% year-on-year. The company maintains strong market control, and current environmental and inventory conditions only affect short-term growth without impacting brand strength and sustainable development [6][9]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue from different product lines was as follows: Yearly original liquor generated 18.086 billion yuan (up 17.31%), Gujing Gongjiu 2.241 billion yuan (up 11.17%), and Huanghelou and others 2.538 billion yuan (up 15.08%). The company expects double-digit growth for the Happiness Edition and Gu 5, with Gu 20 also showing double-digit growth, while Gu 7, Gu 8, and Gu 16 are expected to exceed the average growth rate of yearly original liquor [7]. - The contract liabilities at the end of Q4 2024 were 3.515 billion yuan, reflecting a historical high level of channel loyalty and confidence. However, sales cash receipts in Q1 2025 decreased slightly by 1.6% year-on-year to 8.23 billion yuan due to a high base from the previous year's Spring Festival sales [8]. - The gross profit margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 79.9% in 2024, with a decrease in sales and management expense ratios to 26.2% and 6.1%, respectively. The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 0.7 percentage points to 23.4%. In Q1 2025, the sales and management expense ratios further decreased, and the net profit margin rose to 25.5% [9]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for Gujing Gongjiu for 2025-2027 is as follows: net profits are expected to be 5.886 billion yuan in 2025 (up 6.7%), 6.603 billion yuan in 2026 (up 12.2%), and 7.382 billion yuan in 2027 (up 11.8%). The corresponding EPS for these years is projected to be 11.14 yuan, 12.49 yuan, and 13.97 yuan, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 15.4, 13.7, and 12.3, respectively [6][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is maintained at "Buy" [1][6][16] Core Views - The company's revenue performance is in line with expectations, achieving a revenue of 36.01 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit of 12.24 billion yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the revenue reached 16.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, with a net profit of 6.65 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [6] - The company has a strong dividend payout ratio of 60.4% for 2024, translating to a dividend yield of 3.2% for 2025 [6] - Future profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 13.45 billion yuan, 14.68 billion yuan, and 15.91 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 9.2%, and 8.3% respectively [6] Revenue and Profitability - The revenue from high-end and low-end liquor segments in 2024 was 26.53 billion yuan and 9.34 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14.3% and 9.4% [7] - In Q1 2025, revenue from Fenjiu and other liquor categories was 16.21 billion yuan and 270 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.2% and a decline of 15.5% respectively [7] - The company is expected to see further growth in mid-tier products, with a significant focus on controlling the production of lower-tier products [7] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Sales cash receipts for 2024 amounted to 36.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, while Q1 2025 saw receipts of 13.79 billion yuan, down 2.9% year-on-year due to the timing of the Spring Festival [8] - As of the end of Q1 2025, contract liabilities stood at 5.8 billion yuan, indicating a historically high level of recognition and positive cash flow from channels [8] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved by 1.34 percentage points to 78.8%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 40.28% due to increased sales expenses [9] - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) forecast, with expected values of 27.6%, 24.2%, and 21.1% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wuliangye is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilient operating performance and is actively pursuing channel reforms, which supports the "Buy" rating [5] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 89.175 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, while net profit is expected to reach 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year [5][9] - The company is expected to maintain a stable gross margin, with a slight decline in net profit margin due to increased promotional expenses [8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 21.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with net profit of 6.92 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year [5] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 36.94 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year, with net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year [5] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 32.85 billion, 34.90 billion, and 37.32 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.1%, 6.2%, and 6.9% [5][9] Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 89.175 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 77.1% and a net margin of 37.2% [9][13] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 75.9%, while the net profit margin is expected to be 36.7% for 2025 [9][13] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 8.46 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.2 [9][13] Product Performance - Wuliangye's product revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 67.88 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, driven by strategic products [6] - The company has made significant investments in strategic products such as 1618 and low-alcohol beverages, contributing to revenue growth [6] Cash Flow and Financial Stability - Sales cash receipts for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 increased by 3.2% year-on-year to 62.24 billion yuan, aligning with revenue performance [7] - As of Q1 2025, the company's contract liabilities decreased by 1.52 billion yuan to 10.17 billion yuan, maintaining a historically high level [7]

食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 五粮液（000858.SZ） 2025 年 05 月 02 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 128.70 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 178.76/106.33 | | 总市值(亿元) | 4,995.63 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 4,995.44 | | 总股本(亿股) | 38.82 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 38.81 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 32.17 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 五粮液 沪深300 相关研究报告 《业绩稳健增长，彰显品牌韧性—公 司信息更新报告》-2024.9.1 《业绩稳健，核心矛盾明显改善—公 司信息更新报告》-2024.5.3 开局状态良好，渠道酝酿积极变化 ——公司信息更新报告 | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][20][5] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.4% year-on-year increase [1][5] - The company is focusing on the growth of its cave series products, which are expected to continue to show double-digit growth throughout the year, despite a general decline in demand for other products [2][4] - The company is actively managing its channel structure to ensure healthy inventory levels and is expected to maintain a strong market presence in the domestic market [4][5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 73.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit of 25.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4% [1] - For 2025, the revenue is expected to be 74.00 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.8%, and the net profit is projected to be 26.24 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 1.3% [5][6] Product Performance - The revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary white liquor in 2024 is expected to be 5.713 billion yuan and 1.290 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +13.8% and -6.6% [2] - The cave series products are anticipated to maintain strong growth, particularly the Dong 9 and Dong 6 variants, which are expected to outperform other product lines [2][4] Market Dynamics - The company’s revenue from domestic and foreign markets in 2024 is projected to be 5.093 billion yuan and 1.909 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 12.8% and 1.3%, respectively [2] - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue from ordinary liquor, with a year-on-year decrease of 28.6% in Q4 2024 [2][3] Financial Metrics - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve to 35.3% in 2024, an increase of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 3.28 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [6][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 145.44 yuan over the next six months [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.19%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on maintaining a stable growth trajectory while managing costs effectively. The gross profit margin for 2024 was 87.54%, a slight decrease of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio steadily, with targets of at least 65%, 70%, and 75% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31,196 million yuan, with a projected revenue growth of 2.01% for 2025 and 3.70% for 2026 [4][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 13,473 million yuan in 2024 to 15,773 million yuan by 2027, indicating a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.66% [4][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 9.18 yuan in 2024 to 10.72 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.64x and 11.53x [4][13]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative performance of -3% over the past month and 8% over the past three months, while it has declined by 31% over the past year [8]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 8 million shares, with a total market capitalization of approximately 181.93 billion yuan [5].