Core Insights - The copper futures market is experiencing significant capital inflow, with a total of 487.58 billion yuan in settled funds, making it the second-largest commodity futures market after gold [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai copper futures main contract price has surpassed 88,300 yuan/ton, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price has exceeded 11,000 USD/ton, both nearing historical highs [2] - On October 24, net inflow into copper futures was 3.871 billion yuan, and on October 27, it was 2.699 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest [2] - As of October 27, settled funds in copper futures reached 48.58 billion yuan, solidifying its position as the second-largest commodity futures market [2] Group 2: Company Performance - The rising copper prices have led to significant gains in the non-ferrous metal sector, with companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) seeing stock price increases of 104.95% and 187.32%, respectively, since April 9, 2025 [3] - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen an overall increase of over 70% this year, marking the highest growth since December 2007 [3] - Luoyang Molybdenum reported a net profit of 5.608 billion yuan for Q3, a 96.4% year-on-year increase, attributed to rising copper production and sales [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - International long-term capital inflow is significantly raising global copper prices, with the U.S. experiencing high copper imports leading to a stockpile of 340,000 tons in New York [4] - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has faced production cuts due to safety incidents, exacerbating global copper supply tightness [2][7] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026, marking the first such occurrence in three years [6][7] Group 4: Strategic Importance of Copper - The copper-to-gold ratio is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for copper price increases as gold prices rise [6] - The demand for copper is shifting from traditional industrial uses to technology and energy sectors, driven by global energy transitions and AI advancements [6] - The geopolitical landscape is increasingly highlighting copper as a strategic resource, with resource nationalism becoming more pronounced [6]

Group 1 - The copper futures market is experiencing significant capital inflow, with a total of 487.58 billion yuan in settled funds, making it the second-largest commodity futures after gold [1] - Shanghai copper futures have surpassed 88,300 yuan per ton, while London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices have exceeded 11,000 USD per ton, indicating a high bullish sentiment in the market [1] - Recent data shows that copper futures have seen net inflows of 38.71 billion yuan and 26.99 billion yuan on October 24 and October 27, respectively, with the non-ferrous sector attracting over 50 billion yuan and 35 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The rising copper prices support Goldman Sachs' assertion that "copper is the new oil," driven by the synergy of grid upgrades, AI, and new energy [2] - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine, has experienced significant production cuts due to a safety incident, exacerbating global copper supply tightness [2] Group 3 - The non-ferrous sector has seen substantial performance, with companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Luoyang Molybdenum reporting significant stock price increases of 104.95% and 187.32%, respectively, since April 9, 2025 [3] - The non-ferrous metal sector has recorded an overall increase of over 70% this year, nearing historical highs, making it the best-performing sector among 31 primary industries [3] - Luoyang Molybdenum's third-quarter net profit reached 5.608 billion yuan, a 96.4% year-on-year increase, attributed to rising copper production and prices [3] Group 4 - Continuous inflow of international long-term funds is believed to be driving up global copper prices, with the U.S. experiencing high copper imports and low copper inventories in London and Shanghai [4] - Other non-ferrous metals are also gaining traction, with China Aluminum reporting a 90.31% year-on-year increase in net profit for the third quarter [4] Group 5 - The copper-to-gold ratio is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for copper price recovery as gold prices rise [6] - The copper market is entering a structural tightness cycle, with demand shifting towards technology and energy sectors, supported by global energy transition and AI developments [6] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts a 150,000-ton copper supply shortage in 2026, marking the first supply shortfall in three years [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's base metal futures closed mixed on the night of October 24, with various metals showing different percentage changes in their prices [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - Copper increased by 1.34% [1] - Tin rose by 1.01% [1] - Nickel saw a rise of 0.80% [1] - Stainless steel climbed by 0.75% [1] - Zinc went up by 0.72% [1] - Aluminum increased by 0.64% [1] - Lead rose by 0.52% [1] - Alumina experienced a slight decline of 0.07% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures prices continue to rise, indicating a positive trend in the copper market [1] LME Copper Futures Overview - On October 23, LME copper opened at $10,658.5 per ton and is currently at $10,687 per ton, with an increase of 0.27%. The intraday high reached $10,690 per ton, while the lowest point was $10,647.5 per ton [1] - On October 22, LME copper futures had the following prices: opening at $10,584.0, reaching a high of $10,706.5, a low of $10,536.5, and closing at $10,658.5, reflecting a 0.59% increase [1] Copper Market Updates - As of October 22, the electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London is 8.01, with an import loss of -611.57 yuan per ton, compared to -647.62 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1] - On October 22, LME registered copper warrants totaled 127,575 tons, with 9,275 tons canceled, a decrease of 525 tons. Total copper inventory stands at 136,850 tons, down by 300 tons [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper futures warrants amounted to 36,553 tons, a decrease of 1,125 tons compared to the previous trading day [1]

Group 1 - As of 20:30, London Metal Exchange (LME) futures prices show a mixed performance among various metals [1] - Nickel prices decreased by 0.10%, while copper prices increased by 0.40% [1] - Lead prices rose by 0.38%, zinc prices increased by 0.95%, and aluminum prices saw a rise of 1.50% [1] - Tin prices experienced a decline of 0.31% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's base metal futures closed mixed on the night of October 22, with some metals experiencing price increases while others saw declines [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - Aluminum oxide increased by 0.89% [1] - Stainless steel rose by 0.24% [1] - Shanghai aluminum gained 0.19% [1] - Shanghai tin went up by 0.16% [1] - Shanghai zinc saw a slight increase of 0.09% [1] - Shanghai lead decreased by 0.09% [1] - Shanghai nickel fell by 0.29% [1] - Shanghai copper dropped by 0.60% [1]

Report Date - The report is dated October 21, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On October 21, the SM2601 contract was reported at 5,746 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia ferromanganese was reported at 5,550 yuan/ton. The decline in raw coal production has narrowed. In September, the output of above-scale industrial raw coal was 4.1 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. Fundamentally, the pre - holiday inventory rebounded rapidly, the output continued to decline slightly at a high level, and the inventory rebounded for three consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 93,000 tons on the raw material side, and the molten iron demand remained high and volatile. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 140 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 260 yuan/ton. In the market, the second - round inquiry price of the mainstream steel procurement was 5,800 yuan/ton, and the first - round inquiry was 5,750 yuan/ton. Currently, the factories still have a sentiment of holding up prices, waiting for the final pricing to guide the market. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2] - On October 21, the SF2601 contract was reported at 5,474 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon was reported at 5,220 yuan/ton. Macroeconomically, from January to September, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 13.9%. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers' production mostly remained normal, delivering previous orders. Most manufacturers had hedged in the early stage, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The price of semi - coke was stable, and the short - term cost was supported. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 435 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 380 yuan/ton. In the market, the tender price of HBIS 75B ferrosilicon in September was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton compared with the previous round. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5,746 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5,474 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan [2] - SM futures contract open interest: 576,922 lots, down 6,195 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 399,945 lots, down 10,326 lots [2] - Net position of the top 20 in SM: - 49,100 lots, down 2,192 lots; Net position of the top 20 in SF: - 25,888 lots, down 2,272 lots [2] - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 34 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: 36 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2] - SM warehouse receipts: 46,638 lots, down 998 lots; SF warehouse receipts: 11,400 lots, down 703 lots [2] Spot Market - Inner Mongolia ferromanganese FeMn68Si18: 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guizhou ferromanganese FeMn68Si18: 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Yunnan ferromanganese FeMn68Si18: 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Ferromanganese index average: 5,640 yuan/ton, down 31.9 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 254 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan [2] - SM main contract basis: - 196 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port: 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98% in Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu): 760 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Manganese ore port inventory: 4.457 million tons, down 21,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Ferromanganese enterprise operating rate: 43.28%, up 0.09%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate: 35.48%, down 0.46% [2] - Ferromanganese supply: 208,810 tons, up 4,585 tons; Ferrosilicon supply: 112,800 tons, down 3,000 tons [2] - Ferromanganese manufacturers' inventory: 262,500 tons, up 20,000 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturers' inventory: 69,080 tons, up 3,050 tons [2] - National steel mills' inventory of ferromanganese: 15.93 days, up 0.95 days; National steel mills' inventory of ferrosilicon: 15.52 days, up 0.85 days [2] - Demand for ferromanganese from the five major steel types: 121,113 tons, down 960 tons; Demand for ferrosilicon from the five major steel types: 19,572.52 tons, down 182.08 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 84.25%, unchanged; Blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.31%, down 0.22% [2] - Crude steel output: 73.49 million tons, down 3.8786 million tons [2] Industry News - From January to September, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 4.0%, and real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% [2] - In September, the total import of coking coal was 10.9236 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% [2] - In September, the prices of new and second - hand houses in 70 cities decreased month - on - month. All 70 cities' second - hand house prices fell, and 63 cities' new house prices decreased month - on - month. The decline of new house prices in first - and second - tier cities widened, but the new house price in Beijing increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year and month - on - month decline of second - hand house prices narrowed [2] - The central bank maintained the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5% respectively [2]

Core Insights - LME copper prices increased by $87, or 0.82%, closing at $10,691.5 per ton, driven by a rebound in the stock market and strong industrial output data from China [1][4] - The industrial value-added in China for September grew by 6.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to August, and increased by 0.64% month-on-month [4] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with LME zinc rising by $45, or 1.53%, to $2,978.5 per ton [4] Market Data - LME three-month copper: $10,691.50, up $87.00 (+0.82%) [2] - LME three-month aluminum: $2,776.50, down $1.00 (-0.04%) [2] - LME three-month zinc: $2,978.50, up $45.00 (+1.53%) [2] - LME three-month lead: $1,988.50, up $18.50 (+0.94%) [2] - LME three-month nickel: $15,222.00, up $96.00 (+0.63%) [2] - LME three-month tin: $35,304.00, up $267.00 (+0.76%) [2] Supply Dynamics - LME zinc inventory dropped to 37,325 tons, the lowest level since March 2023 [5] - LME spot zinc premium surged to $230.29 per ton, the highest level since 1997, indicating tight short-term supply [5]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，10月21日，上期所基本金属期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一，沪锡涨0.83%，沪铅涨0.58%，沪镍 涨0.52%，不锈钢涨0.48%，沪铜涨0.48%，沪锌涨0.34%，沪铝跌0.05%，氧化铝跌0.85%。 ...

Core Insights - The article reports real-time prices for international metal futures, indicating a positive trend in the market with gold, silver, and copper experiencing price increases [1] Group 1: Metal Prices - As of 20:30, New York gold futures rose by 2.30% [1] - New York silver futures increased by 1.88% [1] - New York copper futures saw a rise of 0.46% [1]