Market Overview - On January 26, the A-share market saw a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% to 4132 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.91% [1]. High-Performance Stocks - Notable high-performing stocks included: - Jinding New Materials with 5 consecutive trading limits in 9 days - Silver Industry with 5 consecutive trading limits - Sichuan Gold with 4 trading limits in 8 days - Other stocks like Tian Di Online and Zhao Jin Gold also showed strong performance with multiple trading limits [3]. Top Net Purchases - The top three net purchases on the day were: - Wangsu Technology with a net purchase of 614 million - Zhongtung High-tech with 300 million - World with 217 million [3]. Institutional Purchases - Among stocks with institutional special seats, the top three net purchases were: - Wangsu Technology with 218 million - World with 183 million - Zhongchao Holdings with 120 million [5][6]. Price Movements - Significant price movements included: - Maiwei Co. with a 45.47% increase to 342.11 - Wangsu Technology up 20.04% to 13.78 - Qianzhao Optoelectronics up 8.55% to 42.52 [4][6]. Precious Metals Market - Recent trends show spot gold and silver prices breaking historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has increased market risk aversion [11]. - Companies involved in gold and silver production are expected to benefit significantly from rising product prices [11]. AI and Cloud Services - Reports indicate that Amazon's AI computing service has increased prices by 15%, prompting domestic cloud service providers to evaluate potential price adjustments. This is expected to lead to increased capital expenditures among major internet firms like Alibaba and Tencent, indicating strong demand for computing power [13]. Rare Metals Market - The rare metals market is showing strong performance, with prices for strategic resources like rare earths, lithium, tungsten, and nickel continuing to rise due to macroeconomic factors, supply-demand dynamics, and policy influences [17]. Stock Highlights - Notable stock movements included: - Xinke Mobile down 18.15% with a trading volume of 50.94 billion - Jinlong Automobile hitting the limit down with a trading volume of 3.86 billion - Aerospace Engineering also hitting the limit down with a trading volume of 11.11 billion [17]. Trading Dynamics - The trading dynamics showed significant net purchases from various investment groups, with notable net purchases in stocks like Wangsu Technology and Youke De, indicating active trading strategies [20][23].

| 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 禽流感 | 6.89 | 军工信息化 | -4.70 | | 金属铅 | 6.22 | 太赫兹 | -4.42 | | 金属锌 | 5.85 | 同花顺新质50 | -4.24 | | 黄金概念 | 5.02 | 军民融合 | -3.87 | | 动物疫苗 | 4.89 | 卫星导航 | -3.84 | | 芬太尼 | 4.18 | 商业航天 | -3.56 | | 金属铜 | 3.81 | 国产航母 | -3.52 | | 猴痘概念 | 3.13 | 减速器 | -3.51 | | 生物疫苗 | 2.98 | 大飞机 | -3.39 | | 金属钴 | 2.70 | 成飞概念 | -3.35 | | 600338 | 西藏珠 | 0.33 | 12.00 | -7260.15 | -3.10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 峰 | | | | | | 002266 | 浙富控 | -0.59 | 6.57 | -9024.78 | ...

总之，力拓与嘉能可的合并谈判虽处早期，但预示着矿业结构正在变革。对化工行业来说，这意味着关 键金属供应格局可能重塑，既有挑战也有机遇。企业需密切关注市场进展，制定灵活战略以适应变化， 确保在动态市场中保持竞争力。 双方合并的核心吸引力在于铜资源。随着全球能源转型加速，电网建设、电动汽车、可再生能源及数据 中心对铜的需求持续攀升。然而，受限于多年投资不足、矿石品位下降和开发成本上升，铜市场供应日 益紧张。对化工行业而言，铜是重要原材料，用于电缆、化工催化剂及电子化学品生产。例如，在氯碱 工业中，铜电极用于电解过程;硫酸生产也依赖铜催化剂。这两家矿业巨头的合并可能导致铜供应更集 中，影响价格和供应链稳定性，化工企业需关注潜在的成本波动和供应风险。 矿业整合加速的趋势应引起化工行业的重视。例如，英美资源集团与泰克资源正探讨对等合并，创建加 拿大主要铜生产商。力拓与嘉能可的合并若成功，将巩固其行业龙头地位，增强项目融资能力。从更广 视角看，矿业整合反映了全球资源竞争加剧的趋势。化工作为下游行业，依赖金属等原材料，供应链韧 性至关重要。化工企业应加强与矿商合作，签订长期供应协议，并加大技术创新以减少对单一原材料的 依赖 ...

2026年01月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 2 | | 铜：铜矿扰动增加，价格走强 | 4 | | 锌：偏强运行 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：震荡偏强 | 9 | | 铝：偏强震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：底部盘整 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：上涨势头猛烈 | 12 | | 钯：警惕补涨动能 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 26 日 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 100 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | -- ...

Market Overview - Geopolitical risks are suppressing US stock market gains, with the S&P 500 experiencing its first two-week decline in seven months, while the Dow Jones halted its two-day rise. Goldman Sachs fell nearly 4%, leading the component stocks [2] - The semiconductor index dropped over 1%, with Intel's shares falling 17%, marking its largest decline in 17 months, while Nvidia rose over 1% for three consecutive days. Meta gained over 6% for the week, while Apple fell nearly 3%, marking its longest weekly decline since May 2022 [2] - The US dollar index fell for two consecutive weeks to a five-month low, dropping 1.8% for the week, the largest weekly decline in eight months. The offshore yuan rose over 100 points, breaking 6.95, reaching a two-year high [2] - Precious metals surged, with gold nearing $5,000 and silver surpassing $100 for the first time, both achieving their largest weekly gains since 2020. Copper rebounded over 3%, approaching record highs, while nickel rose over 4% [2] Industry News - The public fund performance benchmark new regulations have been implemented, requiring fund managers to reduce salaries if performance is consistently below benchmarks, with a one-year transition period set [4][17] - The storage market is experiencing significant price increases, with Samsung Electronics reportedly raising NAND prices by over 100% in Q1, following a 70% increase in DRAM prices [11][26] - The commercial aerospace and photovoltaic sectors are witnessing explosive growth, with lithium carbonate surpassing 180,000 yuan per ton, and silver reaching a historical high of 25,000 yuan [3] - The demand for silver is being driven by industrial needs and Chinese buying, as it is increasingly viewed as a critical material rather than a speculative asset [22] Company Updates - Zhongwei Company expects a net profit growth of approximately 28.74% to 34.93% by 2025, driven by a revenue increase of over 36% to 12.385 billion yuan, primarily from etching and thin-film equipment sales [30] - Chip manufacturer Chipone expects a narrowing of annual losses by 25% and a revenue increase of 36%, with AI computing driving a doubling of orders [30] - OpenAI is considering a new revenue-sharing model where it may take a cut from profits generated using its AI technology, which has sparked significant debate [33]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a "steady rise" from January 19 to 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.84% to reach 4100 points, marking a new high since 2015 [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rose by 1.11% and 2.62%, respectively, indicating a trend of "moderate index growth and accelerated capital inflow" [2] - The core driving force behind this market rally is identified as a combination of "policy support, capital inflow, and industrial trends" [2] Sector Performance - Cyclical and technology stocks acted as "dual drivers," with sectors such as building materials, steel, and chemicals seeing gains of over 5% [2] - Commercial aerospace concept stocks led the market due to favorable industry developments, while banking and non-bank financial sectors experienced declines [2] Policy and Regulation - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Asset Management Association of China jointly released performance benchmark guidelines aimed at addressing issues like "style drift" and "fund blind boxes," marking the beginning of a reshaping of the public fund ecosystem [2] Investment Trends - Institutional research focused on three main areas: commercial aerospace, metal mining, and storage chips, with significant interest in companies like Daikin Heavy Industries and Naipu Mining [3] - The MSCI Metals and Mining Index has surged nearly 90% year-to-date, driven by soaring global metal demand and tightening supply of key minerals [3] - Gold prices are projected to rise further, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a price of $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, indicating an 8% upside from current levels [3] Commercial Aerospace Developments - The commercial aerospace sector saw a resurgence after a volatile January, with significant domestic and international positive developments [4] - The financing total for the industry is expected to reach 18.6 billion yuan in 2025, a 32% year-on-year increase, as multiple companies initiate their IPO processes [4] - The global satellite count exceeds 12,000, with China's commercial aerospace sector aiming to capture technological transformation opportunities through "new space infrastructure" [4] Market Outlook - Institutions generally expect a "slow bull" market to continue, although caution is advised regarding short-term valuation correction risks [4] - Analysts predict that the A-share market will maintain a trend of oscillating upward, with accelerated sector rotation focusing on cyclical recovery and hard technology growth [4]

来源：滚动播报 受投资者大规模从外汇及主权债券市场转向金属市场的推动，铜价攀升至每吨 13,000 美元关口附近， 其他金属价格亦同步上涨。伦敦金属交易所数据显示，铜价涨幅最高达 1.8%，镍、锡涨幅更是超 3%。 美国总统唐纳德・特朗普对地缘政治格局的重塑以及对美联储的再度抨击，正促使市场涌入避险资产。 通常情况下，这类避险行为主要利好黄金、白银，但近期其影响已蔓延至基本金属领域。这进一步为铜 价上涨添砖加瓦。自去年年中以来，受大型铜矿供应中断、电气化进程催生的需求激增，以及美国可能 加征关税前铜出口量飙升等因素影响，铜价便一路高歌猛进。 ...

Group 1 - The overall inventory of copper increased by 3,450 tons, reaching a total of 171,700 tons, which is a 2.05% increase [1][4] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 507,275 tons, reflecting a 0.39% decline [1][5] - Zinc inventory saw a reduction of 200 tons, bringing the total down to 111,500 tons, a decrease of 0.18% [1][9] Group 2 - The registered warehouse stocks for copper increased by 3.53% to 125,425 tons, while the canceled warehouse stocks decreased by 1.75% to 46,275 tons [2] - Aluminum registered stocks remained unchanged at 482,475 tons, but canceled stocks decreased by 7.46% to 24,800 tons [2] - Tin inventory increased by 40 tons to 7,195 tons, marking a 0.56% rise [1][11]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant shift from being viewed as "poor man's gold" to being recognized as a critical material with essential industrial applications, driven by a persistent supply-demand gap since 2021 [2][4][41]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since 2021, the global silver market has faced a physical supply-demand gap, primarily due to rapid demand growth in key industries such as photovoltaics and electrification, while supply has struggled to keep pace [2][38]. - Over 70% of global silver production comes from by-products of other metals, making the supply response to price signals slow and dependent on the investment cycles of copper, lead, and zinc [3][33]. - The average annual supply-demand gap for silver from 2021 to 2024 is estimated to be around 150-200 million ounces, totaling nearly 800 million ounces [38]. Group 2: Industrial Demand Growth - In 2024, global silver demand is projected to reach 1.164 billion ounces (approximately 36,200 tons), with industrial demand accounting for about 58% of this total [10]. - The photovoltaic sector is a key driver of silver demand, with actual demand expected to reach 198 million ounces in 2024, a 1.6-fold increase from 2019, despite a decrease in silver usage per watt [22]. - The electric vehicle and AI infrastructure sectors are also contributing to silver demand, with the average silver usage in electric vehicles increasing from 15-20 grams for traditional cars to 30-40 grams for new energy vehicles [26]. Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Perception - Historically, silver has been priced in relation to gold, with the gold-silver ratio fluctuating significantly, reaching levels above 90 during the pandemic [14][15]. - The current market still tends to price silver using gold's financial logic, despite silver's unique industrial applications and growing demand [16][42]. - Silver's identity is evolving as it transitions from a widely used industrial metal to a critical material locked into key industries, making it less susceptible to price fluctuations [18][41].

Group 1 - The environmental safety inspection and remediation of heavy metal pollution in Hechi City has accelerated, with all immediate rectifications completed and long-term remediation plans established for remaining pollution sources [1][2] - The city is implementing a targeted approach to address "small, scattered, and chaotic" enterprises by categorizing them into three groups: those to be eliminated, those to be restructured, and those to be upgraded [2] - The cleanup of historically problematic enterprises has been largely completed, and tailings pond management is progressing simultaneously [1][2] Group 2 - The mineral rights integration work in Hechi City has achieved significant progress, with a focus on consolidating 41 mining rights and 37 exploration rights that have unreasonable development layouts [3] - A total of 62 metal mining rights and 60 exploration rights have been identified, supporting leading enterprises capable of comprehensive mining operations to acquire these rights through market-based mergers and acquisitions [3] - Recent projects signed at the Guangxi Key Metal Industry Conference, with a total investment of 162.2 billion yuan, are underway, including land leveling and initial investment activities [3]