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广发早知道:汇总版-20250620
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 00:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as international political situations, central bank policies, and seasonal demand changes. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, the stock index is under回调 pressure due to international uncertainties, while the bond market may be affected by central bank operations and cross - quarter factors. Precious metals face "滞涨" due to the difficult loosening of the Fed's monetary policy, and various commodity futures have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [2][8][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market declined across the board on Thursday, with all major indexes down. The four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is affected by international news such as the situation in the Middle East and the Fed's interest rate decision. It is recommended to wait and see and observe the basis state of the futures contracts [2][3][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The money market showed a slight convergence, and the Fed's interest rate decision had an impact on the market. It is recommended to allocate long positions on dips, pay attention to the TS2509 contract positive arbitrage strategy, and consider the curve steepening strategy when the conditions are right [7][8]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market showed "滞涨" due to the Fed's difficult - to - loosen monetary policy. Gold may have a callback risk in the short term, while silver may have an upward space if inflation expectations rise. It is recommended to hold short - call options on gold and pay attention to the impact of the Middle East situation on silver [12][13]. Container Shipping Index - The container shipping index (European line) EC main contract continued to fluctuate. The weak price increase of some airlines in July affected the bullish sentiment on the disk. It is expected that the 08 contract will remain in a volatile market in the short term, with the main operation range of 1900 - 2200 [15][16]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market had weak driving forces and narrow - range fluctuations. The macro - economic outlook was weak, but the supply - side raw materials were tight, and the inventory was low. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, with the main reference range of 77000 - 80000 [16][17][20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was in a weak and volatile state. The inventory increased, and the downstream consumption entered the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 21000 - 21500, and the short - term view is weak and volatile [20][22][23]. - **Tin**: The tin price was in a high - level shock under strong reality. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the demand was expected to be weak. It is recommended to short at high levels around 260000 - 265000 based on inventory and import data inflection points [24][26]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market had a slight rebound, but the fundamentals changed little. The industry was over - supplied, and consumption was sluggish. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 118000 - 124000 [27][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market had a small increase at a low level, but the fundamentals remained weak. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. It is expected to operate weakly, with the main reference range of 12400 - 13000 [30][32][33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market continued to fluctuate narrowly, and the fundamentals still had pressure. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was difficult to boost in the off - season. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 56000 - 62000 [33][36]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price was in a weak and volatile state. The basis was weak, and the demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options, with hot - rolled coils and rebar respectively paying attention to the pressure at 3150 and 3050 yuan [38][39]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market had a narrow - range shock. The supply pressure was expected to increase in the off - season, and the iron water output was expected to decline. The 09 contract is considered bearish in the medium - long term, with the price range of 720 - 670 [40][42]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market had a weak and stable operation. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand had some resilience. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rebounds around 800 - 850 and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [42][45]. - **Coke**: The coke market had a third - round price cut, and there was an expectation of a fourth - round cut. The supply decreased marginally, and the demand was slightly recovered. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rebounds around 1380 - 1430 and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [47][48]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron market had a slight rebound, but the supply - demand pattern was loose. The cost was expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [49][51]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon market had a bottom - range shock. The supply pressure remained, and the cost was difficult to stabilize. It is recommended to short on rebounds [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The soybean meal market was oscillating strongly. The US soybean was supported by the rise of US soybean oil, and the domestic soybean meal was supported by the cost of US soybean. It is expected to continue to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about chasing high [56][58]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig price was slightly oscillating. The demand was weak due to hot weather, and the supply - demand improvement was not good. The market had no basis for a sharp decline, but the upward drive was also weak [59][60]. - **Corn**: The corn price was in a high - level shock. The supply was tight in the short term, and the price was strong, but the upward momentum weakened after the price increase. In the long term, the supply - demand gap supported the price increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the wheat market and policy releases [61][62].
广发早知道:汇总版-20250619
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:00
Group 1: Reported Industries and Investment Ratings - There is no investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market is stabilizing amidst fluctuations, with potential for more international capital inflow into domestic risk assets. The short - term market is expected to be range - bound [2][3][6]. - The bond market sentiment is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the central bank's bond purchase situation at the end of the month, and appropriate long positions can be considered for treasury bond futures [7][9]. - Gold has a long - term upward trend, but short - term upward momentum is limited. Silver prices are supported but face short - term adjustment pressure [10][12][13]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to continue to fluctuate, with the 08 contract in a narrow range [14][15]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to the combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". Zinc prices may be range - bound in the medium - term, and short - term outlook is weak. Tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be considered based on supply - side changes. Nickel prices are expected to be in a weak range - bound adjustment. Stainless steel prices are expected to be weak. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be in a weak range [20][24][27][30][35]. - Steel prices are in a weak range - bound state, and iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure in the medium - term. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to be volatile, and short - selling opportunities can be considered after rebounds. Silicon iron and manganese silicon prices are expected to be in a bottom - range oscillation [37][41][44][47][49][53]. - Meal prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, but there is pressure on the upside. Pig prices are expected to be in a small - range oscillation. Corn prices are expected to be in a high - level oscillation [54][56][57][58][59]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: The main indices opened lower on Wednesday, with some turning positive in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, and the four major stock index futures contracts all rose. The basis discount of the main contracts is converging [2][3]. - News: The Lujiazui Forum announced eight major financial opening - up measures, and the China - Hong Kong signed a cooperation plan. Overseas, the Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate and adjusted the bond - buying reduction speed [3][4]. - Capital: On June 18, the A - share trading volume decreased slightly, with a net capital withdrawal of 770 million yuan from the central bank's open - market operations [5]. - Operation suggestion: The index has stable support below but faces resistance above. Short - term trading volume is not expanding, and it is recommended to sell put options with an exercise price of 5800 in July to earn premiums [6]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed with mixed performance. The 30 - year and 2 - year contracts rose, while the 10 - year and 5 - year contracts fell [7]. - Capital: The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 770 million yuan. The money market is stable, with the overnight repo rate slightly down and the seven - day repo rate slightly up [8]. - News: The central bank governor announced eight financial policies at the Lujiazui Forum [9]. - Operation suggestion: The market sentiment is relatively strong. Pay attention to the central bank's bond - buying situation at the end of the month. Long positions can be considered for treasury bond futures on dips, and positive - arbitrage strategies for TS2509 can be considered [9]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market situation: The Fed maintained the interest rate, and the market's reaction was small. The dollar index rose slightly, and gold and silver prices fell [10][12]. - News: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue, and the Fed's attitude is hawkish, with internal differences [10][11]. - Capital: Gold and silver ETF holdings increased [13]. - Outlook: Gold has a long - term upward trend, but short - term upward momentum is limited. Silver prices are supported but face short - term adjustment pressure [12][13]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot price: As of June 17, the spot prices of major shipping companies are provided [14]. - Index: As of June 16, the SCFIS European line index rose 4.61%, and the US - West line index rose 27.18%. As of June 13, the SCFI composite index fell 6.79% [14]. - Fundamentals: As of June 16, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The demand in the eurozone and the US is provided by PMI data [14]. - Logic: The futures market is oscillating. The July quotes may affect the 08 contract [15]. - Operation suggestion: The 08 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 1900 - 2200 [15]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of June 18, the average price of electrolytic copper rose slightly, and the premium declined [16]. - Macro: The COMEX - LME premium is oscillating, and the impact of the Iran - Israel conflict on copper prices is limited [17]. - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper in May increased, with a slight decline expected in June [18]. - Demand: The processing industry's operating rate is mixed, and the short - term demand has resilience but may face pressure in Q3 [19]. - Inventory: COMEX inventory is increasing, and domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [19]. - Logic: The combination of "strong reality and weak expectation" leads to copper price oscillation. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to demand pressure in Q3 [20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 77,000 - 80,000 [20]. Zinc - Spot: On June 18, the average price of zinc ingots rose, and the premium declined [20]. - Supply: The supply of zinc concentrates is increasing, and the production of refined zinc in May decreased slightly, with an increase expected in June [21][22]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has rebounded, but the consumption is entering the off - season, and the purchasing manager index has declined [23]. - Inventory: Domestic and LME inventories are decreasing [23]. - Logic: Zinc prices may be range - bound in the medium - term, and short - term outlook is weak. Pay attention to TC growth and downstream demand changes [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to be supported at 21,000 - 21,500 [24]. Tin - Spot: On June 18, the price of tin rose slightly, and the market trading was light [24]. - Supply: The import of tin ore and tin ingots in April changed, and the supply is currently tight [25]. - Demand and inventory: The solder operating rate in April increased, and the inventory situation is provided [25]. - Logic: The supply recovery is slow, and short - term prices are expected to be strongly volatile. Short - selling opportunities can be considered based on supply - side changes [26]. - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the supply - side recovery and consider short - selling based on inventory and import data [26][27]. Nickel - Spot: As of June 18, the price of electrolytic nickel was stable, and the import premium rose [27]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, with a slight decline expected in June [27]. - Demand: The demand from electroplating and alloy industries is stable, while the demand from stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [27]. - Inventory: Overseas inventory is high, and domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [28]. - Logic: The market sentiment is low, and the price is expected to be in a weak range - bound adjustment [29]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 [29][30]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of June 18, the spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the basis declined [30]. - Raw materials: The supply of nickel ore is tight, and the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are weak [30]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel in June is expected to decrease slightly, with an increase in the 300 - series [31]. - Inventory: Social inventory is increasing, and warehouse receipts are decreasing [31]. - Logic: The market is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be weak. Pay attention to the production reduction rhythm of steel mills [32]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 [32]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of June 18, the price of lithium carbonate was stable, and the price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [32]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate in May decreased slightly, with an increase expected in June. The supply is still abundant [33]. - Demand: The demand is relatively stable, but the off - season is approaching, and there is pressure [33]. - Inventory: The inventory is increasing across the board [34]. - Logic: The futures market is oscillating, and the short - term fundamental pressure remains. The price is expected to be in a weak range [35]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [35][36]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price is stable, and the basis is weakening [37]. - Supply: The production is decreasing, with a more significant reduction in finished products [37]. - Demand: The apparent demand is decreasing, affected by tariffs and the off - season [37]. - Inventory: The inventory is approaching the accumulation inflection point, with plate inventory increasing [37]. - View: The raw material price is weakening, and the steel price is expected to be weak. Short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [38]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased [39]. - Futures: The main contract fell 0.78% [39]. - Basis: The basis of PB powder is 55 yuan/ton [39]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output and blast furnace operating rate decreased [39]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the arrival volume decreased [39]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's inventory increased [40]. - View: The short - term iron ore price is under pressure, and the medium - term outlook is bearish. The price range is expected to be 720 - 670 [41]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The futures price oscillated weakly, and the spot price was weakly stable [41]. - Supply: The domestic coal production decreased slightly, and the import coal price continued to decline [44]. - Demand: The coking and blast furnace production decreased, and the demand had some resilience [42][43][44]. - Inventory: The coal mine and port inventory increased, and the downstream inventory was at a medium level [43][44]. - View: The spot fundamental situation improved slightly. Short - selling on rebounds for the 2509 contract and long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage are recommended [44]. Coke - Futures and spot: The futures price oscillated strongly, and the spot price was weakly stable. There is still an expectation of price cuts [46][47]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke is negative [46]. - Supply: The coke production decreased [46]. - Demand: The coke demand decreased slightly [47]. - Inventory: The inventory decreased across the board [47]. - View: The spot market is still loose. Short - selling on rebounds for the 2509 contract and long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage are recommended [47]. Silicon Iron - Spot: The price in the main production areas was stable [48]. - Futures: The 09 contract fell 0.53% [48]. - Cost and profit: The cost is high, and the profit is negative [48]. - Supply: The production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries is weak [48][49]. - View: The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to coal price changes [49]. Manganese Silicon - Spot: The price in the main production areas was stable [50]. - Futures: The 09 contract fell 0.86% [50]. - Cost: The cost varies by region, and the profit is negative in some areas [50]. - Manganese ore: The price of manganese ore is stable, and the shipping volume and arrival volume changed [50][51]. - Supply: The production increased slightly [51]. - Demand: The demand from the steel industry decreased [52]. - View: The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to coke price changes [53]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of soybean meal was mixed, and the trading volume increased. The price of rapeseed meal increased slightly, and the trading volume was 1,500 tons [54]. - Fundamental news: Multiple policies and reports related to the agricultural market are provided [54][55]. - Outlook: The domestic meal prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but there is pressure on the upside [56]. Pig - Spot situation: The spot price oscillated, with a slight decline in the national average [57]. - Market data: The breeding profit decreased, and the slaughter weight decreased [57][58]. - Outlook: The pig price is expected to oscillate in a small range, with limited upward and downward space [58]. Corn - Spot price: The price in different regions was stable or increased slightly [59]. - Fundamental news: The inventory in the four northern ports decreased, and the shipping volume decreased [59]. - Outlook: The corn price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with limited upward momentum [59].
广发早知道:汇总版-20250617
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 01:10
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high, with TMT leading the rebound, while the consumer sector declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose with the index. The current index has stable support below but faces resistance above, and it is recommended to wait and see temporarily [2][3][4]. - The bond market is affected by factors such as economic data and capital conditions. Although the economic data in May is mixed, the short - end of bond futures is relatively strong. The upcoming tax period and cross - quarter capital test will affect the bond market, and it is recommended to allocate long positions on dips [6][7]. - Gold has a long - term upward trend under the background of de - dollarization, but it is affected by factors such as trade negotiations and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical situations and consider selling out - of - the - money call options on gold if the price fails to break through the previous high [10]. - The shipping index (European line) futures are expected to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to the 12 - 10 reverse spread opportunity [13]. - For various metals, copper is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation" and is expected to fluctuate; zinc is in a long - term supply - loose cycle, and it is recommended to consider shorting on rallies; tin is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to tight supply, and it is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data; nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within a range; lithium carbonate is expected to run weakly in the short term due to supply pressure and high inventory [18][22][25][28][30]. - For black metals, steel is affected by the Iran - Israel conflict but still has a downward trend; iron ore supply pressure will increase in the short term, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view; for coking coal and coke, although the futures have rebounded, the fundamentals are still weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies; silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [35][40][43][47][49][53]. - For agricultural products,粕类is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up; the pig price is expected to remain volatile with limited upward and downward space; corn is expected to fluctuate at a high level with insufficient upward momentum [56][59][60]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, the A - share market opened low and closed high, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.66%. TMT led the rebound, while the consumer sector declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose with the index, and the basis discount of the main contracts converged [2][3]. - **News**: The National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for May, showing an increase in social consumer goods retail sales and a slowdown in fixed - asset investment. Overseas, there was a new round of military strikes between Iran and Israel [3][4]. - **Funding**: On June 16, the A - share trading volume decreased by 250 billion yuan compared with the previous day, with a total turnover of 1.22 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 68.2 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.10%, - 0.25%, - 0.20%, and - 0.33% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and consider selling the July 5800 strike price put options to earn the premium [4]. Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market varied [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 242 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on June 16, with a net investment of 68.2 billion yuan. The short - term capital rate decreased, while the long - term capital rate remained stable [5][6]. - **Fundamentals**: In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year. The fixed - asset investment from January to May increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the real estate investment decreased [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The economic data in May is mixed, and the short - end of bond futures is relatively strong. Considering the upcoming tax period and cross - quarter capital test, it is recommended to allocate long positions on dips and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital conditions [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals Gold - **Market Review**: International gold prices fell by 1.38% to close at $3384.54 per ounce, ending a three - day upward trend. The market's risk aversion sentiment has eased, and the prices of gold and crude oil have declined [10]. - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend under the background of de - dollarization, but it is affected by factors such as trade negotiations and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical situations and consider selling out - of - the - money call options on gold if the price fails to break through the previous high [10]. Silver - **Market Review**: International silver prices fluctuated slightly, closing at $36.301 per ounce, up 0.03%. The industrial attributes of silver make its trend relatively independent [10]. - **Outlook**: The improvement of trade relations and the expansion of fiscal and monetary policies in Europe have increased the optimism of the industrial manufacturing industry, which has a certain supporting effect on silver prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the flow of speculative funds and ETFs and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [11]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of June 16, the quotes of major shipping companies showed different price ranges [12]. - **Shipping Index**: As of June 16, the SCFIS European line index rose by 4.61%, and the US - West line index rose by 27.18%. As of June 13, the SCFI composite index fell by 6.79% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: As of June 16, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US in May showed different trends [12]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The futures market fluctuated downward, and it is expected that the price of the 06 contract will decline, driving other contracts to decline. It is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to the 12 - 10 reverse spread opportunity [13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of June 16, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved after the price decline, but they preferred to purchase after the contract change [14]. - **Macro**: The COMEX - LME premium has stagnated after rising to 10%, and there are different views on its future trend. The conflict between Iran and Israel has not had a significant impact on copper prices [15]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be limited, and the production of electrolytic copper in May increased. It is expected to decline slightly in June [16]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod processing enterprises showed different trends, and the terminal demand has certain resilience but may face pressure in Q3 [17]. - **Inventory**: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: Copper is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation" and is expected to fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade between 77,000 - 80,000 yuan [18]. Zinc - **Spot**: On June 16, the average price of zinc ingots decreased, and the trading was mainly among traders [18]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of zinc concentrate changed little, and the production of zinc concentrate in May increased. The production of refined zinc in May decreased slightly and is expected to increase in June [19][20]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries of zinc increased, but the downstream consumption is entering the off - season, and the purchasing manager index has declined [21]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [21]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: Zinc is in a long - term supply - loose cycle. It is recommended to pay attention to the TC growth rate and downstream demand changes and consider shorting on rallies. The main contract is expected to find support between 21,000 - 21,500 yuan [22]. Tin - **Spot**: On June 16, the price of tin decreased slightly, and the trading was light. The downstream consumption is in the off - season [22]. - **Supply**: The import volume of tin ore and tin ingots in April showed different trends, and the supply of tin ore is expected to be tight [23]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of solder in April increased, and the inventory of LME and SHFE decreased slightly, while the social inventory increased [23]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: Due to the tight supply of tin ore, tin is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data [24]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of June 16, the price of electrolytic nickel decreased, and the import premium also decreased [25]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level and is expected to decline slightly in June [25]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloy is relatively stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [25]. - **Inventory**: Overseas inventory remains high, and domestic social inventory has a slight downward trend [26]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The nickel market is affected by macro and industrial factors, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The main contract is expected to trade between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [27]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of June 16, the price of stainless steel remained stable, and the trading was light [28]. - **Raw Materials**: The supply of nickel ore is still tight, and the price of nickel iron is weak, while the price of ferrochrome is relatively stable [28]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel in May decreased, and it is expected to decrease slightly in June [29]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased, and futures inventory decreased [29]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The main contract is expected to trade between 12,400 - 13,000 yuan [30]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of June 12, the price of lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the trading in the spot market was still relatively light [30]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate in May decreased slightly and is expected to increase in June. The supply is still relatively high [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium carbonate is relatively stable, but it may face pressure in the off - season [31]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, and the whole - chain inventory has been increasing in recent weeks [32]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated widely, and the market sentiment is still weak. It is expected to run weakly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 56,000 - 62,000 yuan [33]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel weakened again, and the basis showed signs of stabilizing and strengthening [35]. - **Supply**: The steel production declined from a high level, with a significant reduction in finished steel products [35]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products continued to decline, and it is affected by factors such as tariffs and the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of relevant policies on demand [35]. - **Inventory**: The steel inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation, with the plate inventory increasing [36]. - **Viewpoint**: The conflict between Iran and Israel has a certain impact on the steel market, but it does not change the domestic supply - loose pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies or sell out - of - the - money call options [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder increased slightly, and the 09 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated [38]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the steel mill profitability rate also declined [38]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the arrival volume decreased slightly. It is expected that the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the future [39][40]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory also increased [40]. - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore market is affected by factors such as demand and supply. In the short term, there is pressure on the iron ore price, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view on the 09 contract, with the price range expected to be between 720 - 670 yuan [40]. Coking Coal - **Spot and Futures**: The coking coal futures fluctuated upward, while the spot market was weakly stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot [43]. - **Supply**: The domestic coal production decreased slightly due to environmental inspections, and the import coal price continued to decline [43]. - **Demand**: The coking production and downstream pig iron production declined, but the demand still has certain resilience [43]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory continued to accumulate, and the port inventory was at a historical high, while the downstream inventory was at a medium level [43]. - **Strategy**: The spot fundamentals have improved slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies when the price rebounds to 800 - 850 yuan for the 2509 contract and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [45]. Coke - **Spot and Futures**: The coke futures fluctuated upward, while the spot market was weakly stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The third - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts [47]. - **Supply**: The coking production decreased due to environmental factors [47]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke decreased slightly, and the downstream pig iron production continued to decline [47]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory decreased, with the coking plant, steel mill, and port inventories all showing a downward trend [47]. - **Strategy**: The spot fundamentals are still loose. It is recommended to short on rallies when the price rebounds to 1380 - 1430 yuan for the 2509 contract and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [47]. Silicon Iron - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of silicon iron increased, and the 09 contract of silicon iron futures rose by 1.93% [48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of silicon iron production is relatively high, and the profit is negative [48]. - **Supply**: The silicon iron production decreased slightly this week [49]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron from five major steel products decreased, and the non - steel demand is also weak [49]. - **Viewpoint**: The silicon iron market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [49]. Manganese Silicon - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of manganese silicon increased, and the 09 contract of manganese silicon futures rose by 1.97% [50]. - **Cost**: The cost of manganese silicon production is relatively high, and the profit is negative [50]. - **Supply**: The manganese silicon production increased slightly this week [51]. - **Demand**: The demand for manganese silicon from five major steel products decreased [52]. - **Viewpoint**: The manganese silicon market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [53]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the trading volume also increased [54]. - **Fundamentals**: The US EPA proposed to increase the biofuel blending volume in 2026 and 2027, which affected the price of soybean oil. The soybean processing profit in Brazil decreased, and the EU's soybean import volume increased [54][55]. - **Outlook**: The current operation of US soybeans is mainly affected by policies. The new US soybean crop has a fast planting progress and a high excellent rate, which puts pressure on the price. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal will continue to fluctuate,
广发早知道:汇总版-20250610
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 02:28
广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话:020-88830760 E-Mail:zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录: 金融衍生品: 金融期货: 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属: 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货: 有色金属: 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属: 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品: 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工: 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品: 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息: 张晓珍(投资咨询资格:Z0003135) 电话:020- 88818009 邮箱:zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂(投资咨询资格:Z0016336) 电话:020-88818026 邮箱:qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁(投资咨询资格:Z0016628) 电话:020- 88818017 邮箱:yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波(投资咨询资格:Z00 ...
股指期货日度数据跟踪2025-06-05-20250605
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 05:12
股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-06-05 一、指数走势 06 月 04 日,上证综指涨跌幅 0.42%,收于 3376.2 点,成交额 4468.45 亿元,深成指数涨跌幅 0.87%,收于 10144.58 点,成交额 7062.03 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.88%,成交额 2320.4 亿元,其中开盘价 6067.83,收盘价 6123.17,当日最高价 6124.7,最低价 6067.83; 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.78%,成交额 1503.15 亿元,其中开盘价 5696.57,收盘价 5739.01,当日最高价 5744.45,最低价 5696.57; 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.43%,成交额 2117.36 亿元,其中开盘价 3855.49,收盘价 3868.74,当日最高价 3875.86,最低价 3855.49; 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.13%,成交额 511.09 亿元,其中开盘价 2688.74,收盘价 2690.82,当日最高价 2699.67,最低价 2687.3。 数据来源:Wind,光期研究所 数据来源:Wind,光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 ...
国投期货综合晨报-20250604
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 02:15
Group 1: Energy - The international oil price continued to rise overnight, with the Brent 08 contract up 0.75%. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, but there may be opportunities to short again after the peak season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced in. The global oil inventory has increased by 2% since the second quarter, and the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and its cracking and EFS are expected to weaken. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under the situation of weak supply and demand [20]. - The asphalt industry started destocking in June, and the destocking trend is expected to continue. The BU crack spread may face short - term callback pressure, but the upward trend is hard to reverse [21]. - The decline of 6 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas is small. The market has stabilized, and the downward space is limited. The spot surplus pressure has eased, and the futures may have a small basis contraction, but it will maintain a low - level shock [22]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals oscillated weakly overnight. The US economic data this week is in focus, especially the non - farm payrolls on Friday. Gold can be bought on dips with strong support at $3000 [2]. Group 3: Base Metals - Copper prices rose overnight. The White House's tariff policy may increase the expectation of copper tariffs. The LME copper inventory decreased to 143,800 tons, and the spot premium was $50. The KK mine in Congo may resume production at the end of the month. Consider shorting on rebounds or actively rolling over contracts [3]. - Aluminum prices rebounded slightly overnight. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 8,000 tons, and the demand is facing challenges. There is resistance at the key position of 20,300 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4]. - The alumina supply elasticity is large after the profit recovery. The domestic operating capacity increased by 1.3 million tons to 89.3 million tons. It is advisable to short on rallies, and not to chase short when the discount is large [5]. - Zinc demand is in the off - season, and the fundamentals are changing from weak supply and demand to increasing supply and weak demand. Continue to short on rebounds [6]. - The cost support of lead is expected to gradually appear, and the lower support of SHFE lead is temporarily seen at 16,300 yuan/ton [7]. - Nickel prices rebounded, but the stainless - steel market is still in a situation of high supply and weak demand. The nickel iron inventory increased, and the pure nickel and stainless - steel inventories decreased. Short positions can be followed as the nickel price starts to fall [8]. - Tin prices rose overnight. The tin market still has the theme of tight concentrates, but the medium - term trend is downward. Hold short positions at high levels [9]. - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. The market inventory situation shows positive changes. The decline of Australian ore prices has slowed down, and the short - selling momentum has weakened [10]. - The industrial silicon price decreased with reduced positions. The supply is increasing while the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to decline slowly [11]. - The polysilicon futures price decreased with reduced positions. The short - term demand is weak, and the price is expected to change from shock to weak. Pay attention to the support at 34,200 yuan/ton [12]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices rebounded overnight. The demand for rebar is under pressure in the off - season, and the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have improved. The iron - water output is falling, and the negative feedback expectation still exists. The market is expected to rebound with fluctuations [13]. - The iron ore price rose overnight. The global supply has rebounded to a high level, and the domestic arrival volume has increased significantly. The demand is in the off - season, and the iron - water output is declining. The price is expected to be weakly volatile and may make up for the decline [14]. - The coke price rebounded. The iron - water output is falling slightly, and the second round of price cuts for coking has been fully implemented. The overall inventory has increased slightly, and the price support may decline due to the cost reduction of coking coal [15]. - The coking coal price rebounded. The production is still at a high level, the spot auction market is weak, and the terminal inventory is decreasing slightly. The price still has a downward driving force [16]. - The silicon - manganese price rebounded after a sharp decline. The inventory has decreased, but the supply is increasing slightly. The price is still weak [17]. - The silicon - iron price rebounded after a decline. The iron - water output is falling, the demand is fair, the supply is decreasing, and the price is still weak [18]. Group 5: Shipping - The shipping companies are raising the freight rates in late June. The 08 contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a "strong reality, weak expectation" trend. There may be pulse - type market conditions, and there is still room for the 08 contract to rise further. Short - selling in the short term needs to be cautious [19]. Group 6: Chemicals - The urea market is in a weak - shock state. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, the production enterprises are accumulating inventory, and the impact of the new Indian tender is small [23]. - The methanol price continued to rebound with increased positions. The demand from coastal olefin plants has increased, but the port inventory is rising. The coal price is falling, and the cost is under pressure [24]. - The styrene price is under pressure due to inventory accumulation at the main ports in East China and weak downstream demand [25]. - The demand for polyethylene and polypropylene is in the off - season, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The price support from the demand side is limited [26]. - The PVC industry may face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price may oscillate at a low level. The caustic soda market is weakly operating, with high - level supply and inventory pressure [27]. - The PX and PTA prices rebounded slightly with reduced positions. The supply - demand situation of upstream raw materials is gradually under pressure due to weakening demand [28]. - The ethylene glycol price remains weak, and the pressure will gradually appear after June [29]. - The short - fiber price oscillated and rebounded, and attention should be paid to the possibility of processing - margin repair. The bottle - chip market is in the peak - demand season, and the processing margin is low. Consider intervening in the processing - margin repair if production cuts are implemented [30]. Group 7: Building Materials - The glass industry's production capacity has increased slightly, the spot price has decreased, and the futures price is weakly operating. The inventory pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [31]. Group 8: Rubber - The natural rubber supply is increasing, the downstream demand is weakening, the synthetic rubber supply is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [32]. Group 9: Soda Ash - The soda ash futures price rebounded overnight. The inventory pressure is high, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure at a high level [33]. Group 10: Agricultural Products - The soybean and soybean meal prices lack upward drive. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the demand is relatively cautious. The market is expected to be short - term bearish, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather in June - August [34]. - The soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean and palm oil will face pressure from large arrivals, and the overseas palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle [35]. - The Canadian canola futures price has upward drive, but the domestic canola market is affected by the Sino - Canadian trade relationship. It is advisable to reduce long positions and wait and see in the short term [36]. - The domestic soybean price is oscillating. The import supply is abundant, and the price is expected to be affected by weather in the medium term [37]. - The corn price is expected to be weakly volatile. The demand is weak, and the supply will increase with the listing of new wheat [38]. - The pig price is expected to decline in the short term due to increasing supply. In the medium term, the policy aims to stabilize the price, and attention should be paid to the actions of group enterprises [39]. - The egg price is expected to decline further due to increasing supply and the arrival of the off - season. Attention should be paid to the old - hen culling, weather, and feed prices [40]. - The cotton price is advisable to wait and see. The US cotton planting progress is behind, and the domestic cotton market has mixed conditions with some tight - inventory expectations but increasing off - season pressure [41]. - The sugar price is expected to oscillate. The Brazilian production data is mixed, and the domestic sugar market has reduced imports and light inventory pressure [42]. - The apple price is weakly operating. The market demand is decreasing, and the focus is on the new - season yield estimate. It is advisable to wait and see [43]. - The wood price has stopped falling and stabilized. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is relatively good in the off - season. The price rebound power is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - The pulp price declined. The port inventory is high, the demand is weak, and the import volume may decline. It is advisable to wait and see or try to go long on significant dips [45]. Group 11: Financial Futures - The stock index futures are expected to be in a high - level shock due to insufficient bullish drive. The uncertainty of geopolitical situation and US trade policy makes investors cautious. Pay attention to positive domestic policy signals [46]. - The treasury bond futures are oscillating. The market is in a narrow - range shock, and there may be long - position opportunities after over - decline. Pay attention to the entry timing of curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [47].
国债期货:震荡局势趋势未明朗,复苏预期在途债市或承压
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 01:47
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The situation of Treasury bond futures is oscillating with an unclear trend, and the bond market may face pressure due to the ongoing recovery expectations [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - On June 3, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.03%, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively [1]. - In the money market, overnight shibor was 1.4100%, down 6.1bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day shibor was 1.5150%, down 10.2bp; 14 - day shibor was 1.5790%, down 16.0bp; 1 - month shibor was 1.6200%, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. b. Previous Trading Day Treasury Bond Futures Market | Contract | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Amplitude (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 (2 - year) | 102.386 | 102.388 | 102.350 | 102.352 | - 0.04 | 0.04 | 37274 | 115402 | | TF2509 (5 - year) | 106.005 | 106.040 | 105.940 | 105.960 | - 0.04 | 0.09 | 47214 | 138590 | | T2509 (10 - year) | 108.700 | 108.750 | 108.650 | 108.685 | - 0.03 | 0.09 | 42868 | 167327 | | TL2509 (30 - year) | 119.350 | 119.570 | 119.290 | 119.450 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 60835 | 93807 | - The 2 - year active CTD bond was 250006.IB with an IRR of 1.89%; the 5 - year was 240020.IB with an IRR of 1.80%; the 10 - year was 220010.IB with an IRR of 1.73%; the 30 - year was 210005.IB with an IRR of 1.82%. Currently, R007 is about 1.5877% [2]. c. Money Market - On June 3, the inter - bank pledged repurchase market traded 2.6 billion yuan, an increase of 47.17%. Overnight rate was 1.41%, down 19bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day rate was 1.56%, down 19bp; 14 - day rate was 1.57%, down 16bp; 1 - month rate was 1.55%, down 5bp [3]. d. Cash Bond - The Treasury bond yield curve shifted up by 0.30 - 1.62BP (2Y up 1.57BP to 1.48%; 5Y up 1.62BP to 1.58%; 10Y up 0.72BP to 1.68%; 30Y up 0.30BP to 1.90%). The credit bond yield curve showed mixed movements [3]. e. Macro and Industry News - On June 3, the central bank conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% [7]. f. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of Treasury bond futures is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2, 2] interval [8].
股指期货日度数据跟踪2025-05-30-20250530
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 08:42
1. Index Trends - On May 29th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7% to close at 3363.45 points, with a trading volume of 453.741 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.24% to close at 10127.2 points, with a trading volume of 731.681 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.76% with a trading volume of 232.576 billion yuan, opening at 5980.86, closing at 6089.58, with a daily high of 6091.96 and a low of 5980.86 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.47% with a trading volume of 148.095 billion yuan, opening at 5637.06, closing at 5719.91, with a daily high of 5724.52 and a low of 5637.06 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.29% with a trading volume of 53.28 billion yuan, opening at 2684.49, closing at 2690.89, with a daily high of 2703.99 and a low of 2677.81 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 105.12 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Computer, Electronics, and Medicine & Biology significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 82.67 points from the previous close, with Electronics, Medicine & Biology, and Computer sectors significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 7.83 points from the previous close, with Electronics, Non - Banking Finance, and Medicine & Biology sectors pulling the index up, while Food & Beverage, Utilities, and Banking sectors pulling it down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 66.97, IM01 of - 157.35, IM02 of - 309.74, and IM03 of - 475.64 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 53.15, IC01 of - 123.11, IC02 of - 229.29, and IC03 of - 349.52 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 22.88, IF01 of - 60.63, IF02 of - 90.54, and IF03 of - 127.91 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 15.56, IH01 of - 46.26, IH02 of - 51.34, and IH03 of - 52.09 [13]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 53.1193, etc.) are provided [22]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 26.1467, etc.) are provided [23]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 5.99267, etc.) are provided [23]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was - 1.29644, etc.) are provided [27].
光大期货金融期货日报-20250530
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 07:14
Report Overview - Date: May 30, 2025 - Report Type: Financial Futures Daily Report - Issuer: Everbright Futures 1. Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Oscillating [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: On May 29, the A - share market rebounded significantly, with the Wind All - A index rising 1.17% and trading volume reaching 1.21 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also showed varying degrees of increase. The TMT and pharmaceutical biological sectors led the rebound. Although the economic data in April declined compared to March, it remained resilient. The social retail sales year - on - year rate was 5.1%, supported by the "trade - in" policy. The social credit demand in April was weak, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and M2 year - on - year growth of 8%. The Sino - US joint statement and recent policy announcements, such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and measures to encourage long - term funds to enter the market, are conducive to the repair of corporate balance sheets and the stable rise of stock market valuations. The internal policy drive is the main line for the equity index in 2025 [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 29, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts all declined. The central bank conducted 266 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan after 154.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. In the short term, the bond market is difficult to have a trend - based market and will follow the changes in the capital and economic fundamentals. The bond market is in a sideways oscillation pattern after adjustment. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [3]. 3. Daily Price Changes 3.1 Equity Index Futures and Stock Indices | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,673.6 | 2,665.4 | 8.2 | 0.31% | | IF | 3,832.8 | 3,805.0 | 27.8 | 0.73% | | IC | 5,668.6 | 5,568.0 | 100.6 | 1.81% | | IM | 6,031.0 | 5,899.0 | 132.0 | 2.24% | | SSE 50 | 2,690.9 | 2,683.1 | 7.8 | 0.29% | | SSE 300 | 3,858.7 | 3,836.2 | 22.5 | 0.59% | | CSI 500 | 5,719.9 | 5,637.2 | 82.7 | 1.47% | | CSI 1000 | 6,089.6 | 5,984.5 | 105.1 | 1.76% | [4] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | May 29, 2025 | May 28, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.35 | 102.40 | - 0.054 | - 0.05% | | TF | 105.87 | 106.02 | - 0.15 | - 0.14% | | T | 108.48 | 108.73 | - 0.255 | - 0.23% | | TL | 118.69 | 119.40 | - 0.71 | - 0.59% | [4] 4. Market News - On May 29, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, stated in response to a question from AFP that in the tariff issue, China has repeatedly clarified its stance that tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [5]. 5. Chart Analysis 5.1 Equity Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of each index futures contract [7][8][9][10][11] 5.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][18][19] 5.3 Exchange Rates - The report displays the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates among major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen [22][23][24][26][27] 6. Team Members - Zhu Jintao, Master of Economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29] - Wang Dongying, an equity index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on equity index futures, macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking [29]