Report Summary - This is a futures research report by Baocheng Futures, presenting arbitrage data for various commodities on October 31, 2025. The report includes data on power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Not provided in the report. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The report provides the basis and spread data for power coal from October 24 to October 30, 2025. The basis remained at -31.40 yuan/ton during this period, and the spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) were all 0.00 yuan/ton [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: The report shows the basis and price ratio data for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from October 24 to October 30, 2025. For example, on October 30, the basis for fuel oil was -75.56 yuan/ton, and the price ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1406 [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are presented. For instance, on October 30, the basis for rubber was -600 yuan/ton, and for methanol was 4.5 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread for rubber was 90 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are given. On October 30, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2211 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are shown. On October 30, the basis for rebar was 104.0 yuan/ton, and for iron ore was 4.5 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread for rebar was 63 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are presented. On October 30, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.88 [19]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are given. On October 30, the basis for copper was -30 yuan/ton, and for aluminum was 15 yuan/ton [29]. - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on October 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread for copper was (21.39) [32]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are shown. On October 30, the basis for soybeans No.1 was -123 yuan/ton, and for soybeans No.2 was 338.16 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) for various agricultural products are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread for soybeans No.1 was 41 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on October 30, 2025 are presented. The soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.94 [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from October 24 to October 30, 2025 are given. On October 30, the basis for CSI 300 was 19.91 [49]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread for CSI 300 was -40.4 [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The futures index is in a volatile pattern with the "boots" gradually landing [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Periodic Index Data Tracking - On October 29, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. IF rose 1.2%, IH rose 0.41%, IC rose 2.06%, and IM rose 1.4% [2] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 11,905 lots, IH decreased by 6,016 lots, IC increased by 8,363 lots, and IM decreased by 23,657 lots. In terms of positions, the total position of IF increased by 439 lots, IH decreased by 762 lots, IC increased by 9,663 lots, and IM decreased by 5,250 lots [2][3] 3.2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1; the trend intensity of IC and IM is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with integer values, and the strength is classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [7] 3.3. Important Drivers - Although the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced the end of QT, Powell's hawkish remarks on the prospect of a December interest - rate cut caused the market's probability of a December interest - rate cut to plummet from 95% to 65%. U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, gold, and digital currencies tumbled briefly during the session, while the U.S. dollar rose. Eventually, the Nasdaq closed up supported by NVIDIA, and the Dow closed down [7] - The A - share market performed strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,000 points, hitting a new high in the rebound; the ChiNext Index soared nearly 3%; the North Securities 50 soared more than 8%, hitting the largest daily increase in 9 months. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.7% at 4,016.33 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.93%, the North Securities 50 rose 8.41%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 1.18%, and the Wind All - A rose 1.16%. The total trading volume of A - shares throughout the day was 2.29 trillion yuan, compared with 2.17 trillion yuan the previous day. The new energy sector exploded, with the energy - storage direction seeing a wave of limit - up stocks. The non - ferrous metals sector strengthened collectively, led by copper and zinc. Computing hardware stocks strengthened again, with many stocks hitting record highs. The quantum technology concept has been strengthening recently, and the Hainan Free Trade concept continued to rise [7] 3.4. Index Futures' Top 20 Member Position Changes - For IF contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts vary, such as - 111 for IF2511, 1981 for IF2512, etc.; the short - position changes also vary, like - 135 for IF2511, 1425 for IF2512 [6] - For IH contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts are different, such as - 222 for IH2511, - 1952 for IH2512, etc.; the short - position changes also show variations, like - 497 for IH2511, - 1497 for IH2512 [6] - For IC contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts are diverse, such as 1560 for IC2511, 4388 for IC2512, etc.; the short - position changes also have differences, like 1462 for IC2511, 4920 for IC2512 [6] - For IM contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts are different, such as - 948 for IM2512, - 262 for IM2603, etc.; the short - position changes also vary, like - 585 for IM2512, - 33 for IM2603 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index Futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Volatile in the short - term, then bullish [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market opened higher and closed higher, with the technology sector leading the gains. The content of the "Communiqué" of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China boosted market confidence, and the structured market is expected to continue. However, the valuation of the science - innovation index is at a historical extreme, so be cautious about chasing high prices. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations released positive signals, and this week is the intensive release period of the third - quarter reports, so focus on important data such as the year - on - year revenue of the index [1]. - The recovery of risk appetite pushed up the equity market, and the positive signals from the Sino - US economic and trade talks further boosted the capital market sentiment, suppressing the bond market. But the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading strengthened the expectation of reasonable and abundant future liquidity, boosting the bond market sentiment, and the bond market will run bullishly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the A - share market performed well, with the Wind All - A rising 1.19% and a trading volume of 2.36 trillion yuan. The content of the "Communiqué" focused on three main lines, which met market expectations and boosted confidence. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations were constructive. This week is the intensive release period of the third - quarter reports, so pay attention to relevant data [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 27, 2025, treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank carried out 3373 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and announced 9000 billion yuan of MLF, with a net injection of 3483 billion yuan. The recovery of risk appetite and positive Sino - US economic and trade signals suppressed the bond market, but the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading boosted the bond market [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 27, 2025, compared with October 24, IH rose 0.60%, IF rose 1.07%, IC rose 1.32%, and IM rose 0.34% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 27, 2025, compared with October 24, TS rose 0.05%, TF rose 0.12%, T rose 0.16%, and TL rose 0.34% [3]. 3.3 Market News - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will introduce 9 new policy measures to promote trade facilitation, including expanding the scope of high - level opening - up pilot projects for cross - border trade and optimizing the foreign exchange settlement of new trade formats [4]. - The central bank governor said that the central bank will resume treasury bond trading [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their respective monthly basis trends [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [20][21][22][24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in China's soybean procurement from the U.S. have caused significant concern for the Trump administration, leading to market volatility, highlighting the strategic depth of the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict [1][3][21] Group 1: China's Countermeasures - China's countermeasures have been targeted, starting with special port fees on U.S. vessels, increasing operational costs for American shipping companies [3] - The introduction of rare earth export controls directly impacts U.S. high-end industries, as over 90% of U.S. rare earth needs are met through imports [3] - The combination of these measures has led to panic in the U.S., with significant market repercussions, including a chaotic stock market response [3][5] Group 2: U.S. Response and Market Implications - Trump's reaction to China's soybean procurement changes has been notably intense, indicating deeper implications beyond just agricultural interests [5][7] - The U.S. soybean market is currently facing an oversupply due to reduced Chinese purchases, disrupting the usual price signals in the futures market [13] - Speculation arises that Trump's family may be positioned to profit from these market fluctuations, suggesting a financial motive behind his public statements [13][19] Group 3: Broader Economic Impact - The ongoing trade conflict is not merely a dispute over agricultural products but reflects a broader struggle over industrial security and financial stability between the two nations [21] - Trump's public comments risk undermining the stability of U.S. financial markets, which are crucial for the credibility of the dollar [19] - The strategic nature of China's countermeasures demonstrates a calculated approach to target vulnerabilities in the U.S. economy, indicating a sophisticated level of economic warfare [21]

Group 1 - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference took place from October 16 to 18 in Shanghai, attracting significant attendance and engagement from exhibitors and visitors [1][6] - The China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) showcased its collaboration with domestic universities at the event, highlighting its commitment to financial education [1][4] - The "CFFEX Cup" National College Financial Literacy Debate Competition concluded successfully in July, with Hunan University winning the championship [3][4] Group 2 - Since 2014, CFFEX has partnered with the China Futures Association to host the "CFFEX Cup" National College Student Financial Knowledge Competition, which has gained recognition and influence over the past decade [4] - The competition has seen participation from 1,230 universities and 300,000 students across various regions, making it one of the most influential financial events in China [4] - CFFEX has also established a "Bureau-Exchange-University Cooperation" mechanism, signing memorandums with ten universities to integrate investor education into the national education system [5] Group 3 - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference was co-hosted by the World Green Design Organization and Sina Group, with support from the Shanghai Huangpu District Government [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No core viewpoints are explicitly presented in the provided content. The report mainly presents data on stock index trends, the impact of sector movements on indices, and data related to stock index futures, without summarizing a clear core view. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Trends - On October 16th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1% to close at 3916.23 points, with a trading volume of 869.265 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to close at 13086.41 points, with a trading volume of 1061.873 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 1.09% with a trading volume of 374.297 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index fell 0.86% with a trading volume of 359.838 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.59% with a trading volume of 152.08 billion yuan; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.26% with a trading volume of 560.567 billion yuan [1]. 3.2 Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 81.61 points compared to the previous closing price, with the computer, machinery, and electronics sectors having a significant downward pull on the index [2]. - The CSI 500 Index dropped 62.47 points compared to the previous closing price, with the national defense and military industry, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals sectors having a significant downward pull on the index [2]. - The CSI 300 Index rose 12.13 points compared to the previous closing price, with the banking, communication, and power equipment sectors having an upward pull on the index, while the computer, electronics, and non - ferrous metals sectors had a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 17.85 points compared to the previous closing price, with the banking, food and beverage, and non - banking finance sectors having an upward pull on the index, while the electronics and non - ferrous metals sectors had a downward pull [2]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 17.83, IM01 had - 129.92, IM02 had - 215.88, and IM03 had - 433.95 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 20.15, IC01 had - 114.62, IC02 had - 176.02, and IC03 had - 337.99 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 3.64, IF01 had - 18.94, IF02 had - 29.69, and IF03 had - 53.04 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 0.81, IH01 had - 0.91, IH02 had - 0.26, and IH03 had - 0.75 [13]. 3.4 Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts are presented in the form of tables and figures, showing the point differences and costs at different time points [23][24][26][28].

Group 1 - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference took place from October 16 to 18 in Shanghai, attracting significant attendance and interest in financial futures education [1][3] - The China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) has been recognized as "excellent" in the national investor education base assessment for six consecutive years from 2019 to 2024, emphasizing its commitment to investor education [3][4] - CFFEX has developed over 500 original investor education products, focusing on key dates such as "International Consumer Rights Day" and "World Investor Week," utilizing a multimedia center model [3][4] Group 2 - In 2023, CFFEX collaborated with 15 local securities regulatory bureaus to host 16 investor education events, enhancing its social impact and promoting comprehensive registration systems [4][5] - CFFEX has established financial futures learning zones in 43 investor education bases nationwide, providing convenient access to financial futures knowledge [4] - Future plans include expanding the learning zones to more regions in collaboration with various institutions, aiming to enhance the influence of financial futures education [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Maintain a long - term view of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. There are signs of short - term market cooling [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term bias is bullish as the implied yield of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective. For the medium - to - long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is advisable to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - **Market Performance on October 15**: A - share four major stock indexes rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22% to 3912.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73% to 13118.75 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% to 3025.87 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.4% to 1430 points. Market turnover was 2.0904 trillion yuan, a decrease of 506.2 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, power equipment (+2.72%), automobiles (+2.37%), and electronics (+2.29%) led the gains; steel (-0.21%), petroleum and petrochemicals (-0.14%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+0.01%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IM>IF>IC>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4332/153/944 respectively. Net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 8 billion, - 85 billion, - 104 billion, and 197 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +38.4 billion, +15.3 billion, - 29.1 billion, and - 24.6 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis and Annualized Basis Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 120.85, 97.8, 19.69, and 3.15 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 14.42%, - 11.97%, - 3.82%, and - 0.94% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 18%, 13%, 24%, and 35% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the view of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. There are signs of short - term market cooling [1]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - **Market Performance on October 15**: The bond market weakened. Among the active contracts, the implied yield of the two - year bond was 1.395, up 0.93 bps from the previous day; the implied yield of the five - year bond was 1.572, up 1.19 bps; the implied yield of the ten - year bond was 1.752, up 3.83 bps; and the implied yield of the thirty - year bond was 2.211, up 1.29 bps [1]. - **Cash Bond Situation**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of +0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.024, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +0.4 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.038, and an IRR of 1.64%; for the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220019.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.04 and an IRR of 1.65%; for the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210014.IB, with a yield change of - 0.38 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.156, and an IRR of 2.13% [1]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 43.5 billion yuan and withdrew 0 yuan, with a net injection of 43.5 billion yuan [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bias is bullish, as the implied yield of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective; for the medium - to - long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is advisable to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [1]. (3) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent prosperity of social activities, real estate, and infrastructure is lower than in previous periods [10]

Core Viewpoint - US stock index futures are experiencing a decline, with the S&P 500 index futures down by 0.4% and the Nasdaq 100 index futures down by 0.5% [1] Market Performance - Spot gold prices are rising, nearing $4,170, with an intraday increase of 1.4% [1] - Spot silver has also seen a significant rise, increasing by over 1.8% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: Short - term fluctuations may occur due to Trump's tariff threat and high market valuations, but a full - scale panic is unlikely. The market is expected to operate in a volatile manner. Investors who have reduced their positions can wait and look for better opportunities, while those who haven't can lock their positions in a timely manner [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market has been weak in the second and third quarters due to various negative factors, the fundamentals still provide support, and short - term treasury bonds may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions - **Stock Index Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: On October 10, A - shares adjusted significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points again, and the ChiNext and STAR Markets both slumping. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.94% [6]. - **Core View**: Short - term fluctuations are possible, but a panic - selling like that in April is less likely. Investors with reduced positions can wait, and those without can lock positions [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the market index may adjust [6]. - **Strategy Outlook**: The stock index is expected to operate in a volatile manner [6]. - **Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: Bond yields declined significantly, with the long - end yields falling more, and the yield curve flattened significantly. The yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond dropped by more than 5bps [11]. - **Core View**: The bond market was affected by multiple negative factors in the second and third quarters, but the fundamentals still support it. Short - term treasury bonds may fluctuate [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate strongly [11]. - **Strategy Outlook**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. Key Data Tracking - **PMI**: In September, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.4%. Supply and demand improved, and raw material inventories were replenished, which supported the PMI. Supplier delivery time and employment index slightly dragged down the PMI. The improvement in external and domestic demand in September may be due to non - US capital goods orders, US Christmas - season restocking orders, and the "anti - involution" policy [18]. - **CPI**: In August, the year - on - year CPI was - 0.4%, and the month - on - month was flat. The year - on - year PPI was - 2.9%, and the month - on - month was flat. Although there were positive changes in prices, domestic demand was still weak, and the international trade environment was uncertain [21]. - **Import and Export**: In August, exports maintained a resilient growth with a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The growth rate of general trade exports declined, while that of processing trade exports increased. The growth rate of electromechanical products and labor - intensive products declined, while that of high - tech products increased. Imports declined, and the trade surplus widened to $102.33 billion [23]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits** - **Profit and Revenue Growth**: In August, both profit and revenue growth rates rebounded. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded to 0.9%. In August, the single - month profit growth rate rebounded to 20.4%, and the revenue growth rate was 1.9% [27]. - **Structural Factors**: The rebound in profit growth in August may be due to the concentrated recognition of state - owned enterprise investment income and the effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. The revenue growth rate of upstream manufacturing industries increased, while that of mid - and downstream industries declined [30]. - **Inventory and Turnover**: At the end of August, the nominal and real inventory growth rates of industrial enterprises declined. The inventory turnover days remained unchanged, and the accounts receivable turnover days increased slightly, indicating high operating pressure on enterprises [33]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In August, the production intensity declined, especially in downstream industries. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 5.2%, and the service production index growth rate dropped to 5.6%. The export delivery value growth rate turned negative for the first time since 2024 [36]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In August, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline. The growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment all decreased. The estimated single - month year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped to - 6.3%, and that of private investment dropped to - 7.1% [39]. - **Social Retail Sales**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 3.4%, and that of retail sales above a designated size dropped to 2.4%. The narrowing of national subsidy channels and the overdraft effect of durable - goods consumption led to a lack of upward momentum in consumption [42]. - **Social Financing** - **New Social Financing**: In August, the new social financing was 2.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5 trillion yuan. Credit and government bonds were the main drags [46]. - **Credit Structure**: Resident credit increased positively, but medium - and long - term loans still increased less year - on - year. The new credit in August was 590 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3 trillion yuan [46]. - **Money Supply**: In August, the M0 growth rate declined to 11.7%, the M1 growth rate continued to rise to 6.0%, and the M2 growth rate remained flat at 8.8%. The growth rate of social financing stock declined to 8.8%, and after excluding government bonds, it dropped to 5.9% [49].