美国通胀降温，4 月 CPI 同比 2.3%，为自 2021 年 2 月以来最低水平。沙特 承诺向美国投资 6000 亿美元，覆盖军火、科技、波音飞机、基建和数据中心。 美国或允许阿联酋进口超百万英伟达先进芯片，支持 OpenAI 在联酋建数据 中心。贝森特：欧盟可能在贸易方面存在"集体行动问题"。整体来看，中 美谈判进程超预期，而市场表现冷静，在关税前的位置附近，没有明显上探， 股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行 金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 对于仓位较低或者久期较低的机构，左侧交易的动力或者空间可能较为充足， 短期内可能体现为一波 5BP 的波段交易。但如果本身着眼于更长趋势交易的 投资者，当前的位置并未充分反应宏观形势的阶段性好转带来的预期变化， 参与的赔率仍然偏低。后续还有政府债密集供给、税期和经济数据等因素的 轮番扰动，市场波折尚未完全结束，关注短期内市场机构充分调仓后进一步 的方向选择。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 研究咨询部 2025-05-14 公司资质 彭博 从业 ...

qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq 跨期价差方面，截至上周五收盘，IF、IC、IM和IH当月合约与下月合约的跨期价差率分别处在2019年以来的94.10%、 98.80%、99.20%和 88.20%分位数。四大期指当月合约与下月、当季、下季的价差率均处于历史分布常态位置。 正向和反向套利空间上，以年化收益 5%计算，剩余 5 个交易日，IF 正反套当月合约基差率需要分别达到 0.33%和- 0.48%。以年化收益 5%计算，剩余 29 个交易日，IF 正反套下月合约基差率需要分别达到 0.95%和-1.79%。按照收盘 价格看，目前 IF 当月合约存在反套机会。 分红预测方面，根据我们的估算，沪深 300 指数、中证 500、上证 50 指数和中证 1000 指数对主力合约的点位分别为 22.15、44.10、16.55 和 36.81。 市场预期方面，基差变化同时受到分红及投资者交易情绪的影响。当前上市公司业绩披露结束，主力资金可能根据 公司基本面进行调仓换股，如遇到主力资金大规模买卖操作，预期导致基差大幅波动。上周四大期指当月合约基差 波动幅度较小。当前各品种基差均处于历史低位，跨期价差为正，使用近 ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-05-08 一、指数走势 05 月 07 日，上证综指涨跌幅 0.8%，收于 3342.67 点，成交额 5952.3 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.22%，收于 10104.13 点，成交额 8730.87 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 0.14%，成交额 2965.22 亿元，其中开盘价 6171.61，收盘价 6111.49，当日最高价 6195.14，最低价 6063.64； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.17%，成交额 2275.66 亿元，其中开盘价 5805.66，收盘价 5750.29，当日最高价 5819.24，最低价 5713.27； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.61%，成交额 2860.11 亿元，其中开盘价 3861.58，收盘价 3831.63，当日最高价 3863.68，最低价 3814.99； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.87%，成交额 806.55 亿元，其中开盘价 2685.56，收盘价 2670.7，当日最高价 2685.56，最低价 2656.2。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 | 期指：利多继续落地，关注早间发布会 | | --- | | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 3808.54 | ↑1.01 | | 2679.4 | | | | | | IF2505 | 3797.6 | ↑1.10 | -10.94 | 325.3 | 28609 | ↑8550 | 46669 | ↓1740 | | IF2506 | 3766.2 | ↑1.13 | -42.34 | 539.2 | 47831 | ↑5445 | 138953 | ↑2596 | | IF2509 | 3708.6 | ↑1.06 | -99.94 | 104.5 | 9414 | ↑2535 | 56336 | ↑1103 | | IF2512 | 3681.8 | ↑1.10 | -126.74 | 23.8 | 2158 | ↓215 | ...

说起深圳水贝，那可是全国闻名的"黄金码头"。这里藏龙卧虎，随便拎一个老板出来，身家都能让人眼 红。可最近，水贝圈子里炸开了一个惊雷——一位平时看着挺风光的大老板，炒黄金亏掉了整整一个 亿！ 可人啊，赚得越多，心可能就越大。王老板开始不满足于珠宝生意的利润，他听说炒黄金来钱快，而且 自己就在这个行业，总觉得对"金"有特殊的敏感度。于是，他一脚踏进了高风险的黄金期货市场。 刚开始，行情好，他也赚了些。这下更不得了，觉得自己是股神附体，胆子越来越肥，下的注也越来越 大。殊不知，金融市场可不是实体店，它翻脸比翻书还快。 前段时间，黄金市场经历了一轮剧烈波动。具体细节外人不得而知，但结果是残酷的：王老板一个没扛 住，或者说步子迈得太大，一个晚上，上亿的资金就灰飞烟灭了。 消息传出来，整个水贝都震动了。平时看他开豪车、戴名表，以为是人生赢家，没想到在看不见的"战 场"上栽了这么大的跟头。有人唏嘘，有人感叹，更多的是把这件事当成活生生的反面教材。 实体经济有它的周期和风险，但看得见摸得着；金融投机呢，数据在跳动，财富可能一夜暴增，也可能 瞬间清零。王老板的这一个亿，不仅亏掉了他的真金白银，更给水贝，乃至所有手握实体财富却渴 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策面利好预期与外部不确定性 风险并存 | 备注： ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 4 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五今日各股指均冲高回落，全天震荡整理。股市成交金额为 11370 亿元，较上日缩量 19 亿元。近期股市的成交量能保持相对稳定，一方 ...

Group 1: Index Trends - On April 14th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.76% to close at 3262.81 points with a trading volume of 543.811 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.51% to close at 9884.3 points with a trading volume of 733.662 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.3% with a trading volume of 272.673 billion yuan, opening at 5933.99, closing at 5938.53, with a high of 5979.9 and a low of 5914.25 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.82% with a trading volume of 207.47 billion yuan, opening at 5633.78, closing at 5627.14, with a high of 5661.8 and a low of 5608.73 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.33% with a trading volume of 85.931 billion yuan, opening at 2623.57, closing at 2628.21, with a high of 2636.79 and a low of 2615.39 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.23% with a trading volume of 292.571 billion yuan, opening at 3772.04, closing at 3759.14, with a high of 3776.63 and a low of 3754.03 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 76.34 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Pharmaceutical Biology and Electronics having a significant upward pull on the index [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 45.82 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Non - Ferrous Metals having a significant upward pull on the index [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 8.62 points from the previous close, with sectors like Banks, Non - Ferrous Metals, and Automobiles having an upward pull, while Machinery, Household Appliances, and Food and Beverage had a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 8.63 points from the previous close, with sectors like Banks, Non - Ferrous Metals, and Automobiles having an upward pull, while Food and Beverage had a downward pull [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 37.39, IM01 of - 121.7, IM02 of - 221.63, and IM03 of - 387.77 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 29.41, IC01 of - 90.75, IC02 of - 171.57, and IC03 of - 298.5 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 13.94, IF01 of - 30.31, IF02 of - 61.11, and IF03 of - 111.78 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 4.89, IH01 of - 7.89, IH02 of - 18.34, and IH03 of - 49.87 [13]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [24][26][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - For stock index futures, the strategy is to expect a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] Core Views Stock Index - US inflation cooled more than expected, with the March CPI down 0.1% month - on - month, the lowest in nearly five years, and the core CPI up 2.8% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate in four years. China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the tariff issue negotiation with the US. The domestic stock market has been strong recently, but some investors may take profits after consecutive gains due to the impact of the external market. The second - stage competition of the tariff war has begun, and there will be more subsequent games. Stock index futures may operate in a volatile manner [1] Treasury Bond - The previous monetary policy was firm. With the increasing external uncertainties, the expectation of loose money has become more solid. Coupled with the abundant lending by large banks in the past two days, the capital interest rate has steadily declined, and the liquidity has improved. The market is betting on the approaching of loose monetary policy, and the yield curve is more likely to steepen. The certainty of the short - to - medium - term is relatively stronger. Although the long - end lacks the basis for a significant upward movement, it is affected by external tariff disturbances and the uncertainty of negotiations between countries, with significantly increased volatility and more repeated trends. Overall, the long - end interest rate may need the catalysis of the substantial implementation of domestic loose policies to break through the previous low [2] Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.46%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.74%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.86%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 2.33% [4] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.005%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.24%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03% [6] Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market is operating weakly in a volatile manner [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is operating strongly in a volatile manner [7] Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/10 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3673.00 | 1.459 | 83748 | 141689 | | 2025/04/10 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2582.20 | 0.741 | 43873 | 48237 | | 2025/04/10 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5509.00 | 1.860 | 60899 | 65270 | | 2025/04/10 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5578.20 | 2.334 | 222566 | 174420 | | 2025/04/10 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.04 | - 0.005 | 84854 | 188699 | | 2025/04/10 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.50 | 0.066 | 69578 | 180190 | | 2025/04/10 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.87 | - 0.241 | 131204 | 102587 | | 2025/04/10 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.70 | 0.029 | 43868 | 112006 | [9]

Report Overview - **Date**: April 2, 2025 - **Research Institution**: Guangzhou Financial Holdings Futures Co., Ltd. - **Research Team**: Li Binlian, Ma Chen, Xue Libing, Li Jun Investment Ratings - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term: Slightly Strong; Medium - term: Strong [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term: Narrow - range Fluctuation; Medium - term: Strong [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Short - term: Weak; Medium - term: Under Pressure [3] Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is structurally recovering, and capital market system optimization promotes long - term capital inflows. Overseas, US tariff policies and inflation data affect the market. The equity market pricing returns to fundamentals, with short - term performance expectations and medium - term domestic technology innovation as the main lines [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Post - quarter liquidity is generally optimistic, but central bank operations limit overnight rates. Policy emphasizes long - term bond yields, and the weak fundamental improvement expectation supports long - term bonds [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Steel exports face trade barriers, consumption improvement is less than expected, and raw material inventory pressure is large, leading to steel prices under pressure [3][4] Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold HO2504 - C - 2750 out - of - the - money call options, and exit the long IH2504 and short IC2504 hedge portfolio opportunistically [1] - **Core Logic**: - **Domestic**: From January to February, industrial enterprise profits were structurally stable, and PMI data was positive. Capital market systems for securities issuance and refinancing were optimized, and long - term institutional funds were promoted [1] - **Overseas**: US auto tariff policies and high inflation data increased market concerns about stagflation, and the uncertainty of tariffs and interest rate cuts affected the equity market [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2506 and TL2506 [2] - **Core Logic**: - **Funds**: Post - quarter liquidity was optimistic, but central bank net withdrawals limited overnight rate decline. Long - term funds' interest rates were relatively stable [2] - **Policy**: The central bank's Q1 monetary policy meeting emphasized long - term bond yields to prevent systemic risks [2] - **Fundamentals**: Economic data in the first two months was mediocre, with weak external demand, inflation, and financial data, hindering the improvement expectation [2] Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel) - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 inter - period positive spread strategy [3] - **Core Logic**: - **Exports**: Steel exports faced trade barriers such as anti - dumping duties from Vietnam and South Korea [3] - **Consumption**: Steel consumption improvement was less than expected, with poor construction funds and weak rebar consumption [3] - **Raw Materials**: Iron ore and coal - coke inventories had pressure, which might increase steel supply and put pressure on costs [3][4]