2026年02月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：释放风险 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：情绪悲观，价格弱势 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：LME库存减少，限制价格下跌 | 9 | | 锡：回落整理 | 10 | | 铝：等待市场修复 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：在震荡中小幅修复 | 13 | | 钯：韧性偏强但仍然低位震荡 | 13 | | 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 | 15 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：下游陆续采购，盘面下方空间较有限 | 17 | | 工业硅：硅厂减产落地，下方空间不深 | 19 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 19 | | 铁矿石：窄幅震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：成本预期松动，弱势震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：商品情绪共振，弱势震荡 | 24 | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - No relevant information provided Group 3: Summary of Spot Market - Newman powder: latest price 778, daily change -8, weekly change -10, discount to the underlying 832.4, import profit 11.68 [1] - PB powder: latest price 782, daily change -8, weekly change -11, discount to the underlying 832.4 [1] - Macfarlane powder: latest price 776, daily change -8, weekly change -13, discount to the underlying 847.6, import profit 34.22 [1] - Jinbuba powder: latest price 735, daily change -8, weekly change -11, discount to the underlying 826.9, import profit 40.92 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder: latest price 725, daily change -3, weekly change 0, discount to the underlying 862.8, import profit -4.88 [1] - Super special powder: latest price 671, daily change -7, weekly change 1, discount to the underlying 890.9, import profit -7.01 [1] - Carajás powder: latest price 882, daily change -8, weekly change 4, discount to the underlying 815.8, import profit -11.28 [1] - Brazilian mixed powder: latest price 821, daily change 0, weekly change -3, discount to the underlying 827.6, import profit 12.53 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6: latest price 757, daily change 3, weekly change 0, discount to the underlying 830.4 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG: latest price 762, daily change 3, weekly change 0 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate: latest price 863, daily change -10, weekly change -9, discount to the underlying 972.3 [1] - 61% Indian powder: latest price 724, daily change -8, weekly change -11 [1] - Karara concentrate: latest price 868, daily change -10, weekly change -8, discount to the underlying 887.4 [1] - Roy Hill powder: latest price 769, daily change -8, weekly change -11, discount to the underlying 846.5, import profit 54.77 [1] - KUMBA powder: latest price 841, daily change -8, weekly change -11, discount to the underlying 820.2 [1] - 57% Indian powder: latest price 606, daily change -7, weekly change 1 [1] - Atlas powder: latest price 720, daily change -3, weekly change 0 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate: latest price 971, daily change -11, weekly change -11, discount to the underlying 858.0 [1] Group 4: Summary of Futures Market - i2701: latest price 753.5, daily change -6.5, weekly change -1.5, monthly spread 12.5 [1] - i2605: latest price 783.0, daily change -8.5, weekly change -1.5, monthly spread -29.5 [1] - i2609: latest price 766.0, daily change -6.5, weekly change 0.0, monthly spread 17.0 [1] - FE01: latest price 105.62, daily change -0.08, weekly change -0.25, monthly spread -2.89 [1] - FE05: latest price 103.72, daily change -1.08, weekly change -0.89, monthly spread 1.90 [1] - FE09: latest price 102.73, daily change -1.04, weekly change -0.55, monthly spread 0.99 [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡运行 | 产业格局弱稳，矿价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局持续走弱，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗低位运行，且钢市产业矛盾在累积，矿 石需求弱势格局将延续，仍易拖累矿价。与此同时，国内港口到货低位回升，而矿商发运则是持续增 加，海外矿石供应企稳，相应的内矿供应平稳，叠加库存高企，供应压力未退。总之，海外供应企稳， 且库存高企，矿石供应压力偏大，而矿石需求表现偏弱，基本面弱势运行，矿价仍易承 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market for steel products is in the off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory. The central bank's reduction of re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. Short - term price drops are due to the pull - back of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. For steel products, short - term prices are in a narrow range, and a direction choice may be needed. For iron ore, the demand is in the off - season, and supply is expected to decline further due to seasonal factors, with resistance above in the short - term [2][4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, apparent demand decreased month - on - month, total inventory continued to rise, the total output of five major steel products increased slightly, inventory continued to increase, and apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The market is in the consumption off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory from a low level [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3098 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (- 0.96%) from the previous day and 45 yuan (- 1.43%) from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3261 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan (- 0.82%) from the previous day and 41 yuan (- 1.24%) from last week. Other relevant prices such as spot prices, basis, and spreads also showed corresponding changes [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and conduct medium - term trading. Do not chase up or sell down. Wait for the bottom signal to be confirmed and then add positions at low prices [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is still in the consumption off - season. The molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement of steel apparent demand may be due to the year - end rush to complete projects. Steel and molten iron output will not increase significantly for the time being, but the decline space is also limited [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have declined, and shipments are expected to continue to decline due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and port inventory has been rising [4]. - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 783 yuan/dry ton, down 8.5 yuan (- 1.07%) from the previous day and 1.5 yuan (- 0.19%) from last week. Other prices such as spot prices, basis, and spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for the price to stabilize, and then look for opportunities to go long. Do not chase up or sell down [4]. 3. Industry News - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3.0946 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.2 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2.521 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 126.7 million tons [6]. - On February 2, China Construction Bank supported the signing of the first - batch project of purchasing second - hand housing for affordable rental housing in Shanghai, marking the substantial start of this work [6]. - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.6692 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.7 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.4847 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.3 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.2887 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 50.6 million tons [6]. - According to Mulin Research, from February 2 to February 8, 2026, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 5, 2 less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 29%; the total arrival volume was about 185,000 cubic meters, 33,000 cubic meters less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 15% [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the inventory of five major steel products has started to increase. Rebar production has increased while demand has decreased, with inventory rising month - on - month, but the inventory accumulation pressure is limited due to the low absolute quantity. The decline in hot - rolled coil inventory has narrowed, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising, and the short - term inventory contradiction is limited. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from overseas (Australia and Brazil) has decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume has increased. The daily output of hot metal continues to rise, supporting the restocking demand. However, port inventory has further increased, and the price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the upside is limited [4]. - For coking coal and coke, supply has gradually recovered as some coal mines resumed production, and downstream transactions have improved. With the continuous increase in the daily output of hot metal, there is a certain support for coking coal and coke, and they are expected to operate in a strong - oscillating manner [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the macro - environment improved, but the industrial supply - demand structure weakened. Rebar inventory started to increase, and the decline in hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed. Steel prices lacked upward momentum and showed an oscillating pattern [9]. 2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Rebar weekly output was 191.04 tons (up 1.50% month - on - month and down 4.20% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 305.51 tons (up 0.33% month - on - month and up 0.53% year - on - year). Both blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar increased, and the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces also increased. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased [14][15][25]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 174.96 tons (down 12.71% month - on - month and down 5.50% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 308.34 tons (down 0.78% month - on - month and up 2.41% year - on - year). The demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [33]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory started to increase, with both factory and social inventories rising. Hot - rolled coil inventory decline slowed down, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising [34][39]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, both the commercial housing and land markets showed a month - on - month decline. In the automotive market, in November 2025, automobile production and sales continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year [44][47]. 3. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2606.4 tons (down 5% month - on - month and down 0.7% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2920.4 tons (up 5.95% month - on - month and up 24.59% year - on - year) [56]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 229.5 tons (up 2.07 tons month - on - month and up 5.13 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 323.27 tons (down 0.60% month - on - month and down 0.92% year - on - year) [61]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 16275.26 tons (up 1.91% month - on - month and up 8.10% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8989.59 tons (up 0.48% month - on - month and down 10.77% year - on - year) [66]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 85.34% (up 7.17% month - on - month and down 2.52% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.90 tons (down 11.27% month - on - month and up 10.11% year - on - year) [72]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 95.12% (up 21.42% month - on - month and up 37.72% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 85.85% (up 24.26% week - on - week and up 32.89% year - on - year) [75]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 45 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.69% (up 1.35% month - on - month and down 0.63% year - on - year) [81]. - **Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory decreased month - on - month, and coking plant inventory increased. Coke port inventory increased slightly, and coking plant inventory decreased [82][88]. - **Spot Price**: After the fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, the price remained stable, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued [94]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil both contracted, and the 5 - 10 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil slightly contracted. The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread oscillated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore slightly contracted [100][105].

上市企业：河钢资源（000923）,海南矿业（601969）,金岭矿业（000655）,大中矿业（001203）,西部矿 业（601168）,鞍钢股份（000898）,太钢不锈（000825）,包钢股份（600010）,本钢板材（000761）,酒 钢宏兴（600307） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国铁矿石行业市场全景评估及发展策略分析报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国铁矿石原矿产量为7935万吨，同比下降4.4%；2025年1-12月 中国铁矿石原矿累计产量为98371.5万吨，累计下降2.8%。 2020-2025年中国铁矿石原矿产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows low and stable production, declining apparent demand, seasonal inventory accumulation with a lower - than - year - on - year rate. Rebar continues to accumulate inventory while hot - rolled coils maintain de - stocking. Steel prices fluctuate with market sentiment, staying in a range. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar widens, and the basis of rebar weakens while that of hot - rolled coils strengthens. In February, due to the Spring Festival off - season, supply and demand are weak. Steel prices are expected to continue seasonal inventory accumulation, with de - stocking pressure after the festival. The price is constrained by weak domestic demand on the upside and supported by macro sentiment and supply - side policies on the downside. Rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3250 yuan, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. With high inventory, stagnant resumption of iron - making production, and the fulfillment of steel mills' restocking, iron ore prices are under pressure. Supply shows a marginal decrease in the shipping center but is still at a relatively high level compared to historical periods. Demand sees a slight decline in iron - making production and a drop in steel mills' profitability. Terminal demand for steel exports weakens, and the manufacturing industry faces an off - season. Before the Spring Festival, it is difficult to resume iron - making production, and negative feedback is also hard to observe. Port inventory continues to accumulate, and steel mills' inventory increases significantly. Before the Spring Festival, the price is expected to be under pressure, and one can try short - selling around 800 yuan, but beware of macro and market sentiment disturbances [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling in January. The fourth - round price cut of coke was implemented on January 1st, followed by price increases from major coke producers. The first - round price increase was officially accepted by steel mills on January 28th and executed on the 30th. The supply side has lagging price adjustments of coke compared to coking coal, resulting in pressure on coking profits and a slight decline in production. The demand side has a slight resumption of production by steel mills after New Year's Day, with low - level iron - making production and a rebound in steel prices. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants and steel mills accumulate inventory, while ports reduce inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increased at a medium level, and the supply - demand situation of coke improves. Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850 yuan. - Coking coal futures also showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Spot prices in Shanxi showed signs of decline, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with futures. The supply side has an increase in daily coal output from mines and faster de - stocking. Imported coal has a high - level inventory at ports, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has rebounded rapidly after New Year's Day. The demand side has limited growth in demand for downstream restocking before the Spring Festival due to low - level iron - making production, declining coking profits, and reduced production. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants, steel mills, and ports accumulate inventory, while mines, coal - washing plants, and ports reduce inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increased at a medium level. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong before the Spring Festival, with a reference range of 1050 - 1250 yuan. An arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke is recommended, but beware of the supply - demand situation turning loose after the festival [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply shows a slight decline, with stable production recently and an increase in the operating rate of manufacturers. The absolute weekly production is at a historically low level. Inner Mongolia's production rises steadily, Ningxia's production is stable, and southern regions may see a contraction in production due to potential electricity price hikes. Steel - making demand is expected to have stable iron - making production before the Spring Festival. The contradiction in the finished - product market is relatively limited, and the resumption of iron - making production can suppress inventory contradictions. However, the resumption space is limited by off - season demand, and negative feedback is hard to observe. The inventory in factories is still high, mainly concentrated in Ningxia, but the warehouse - receipt level is relatively low. The cost of alloy manufacturers' coal - mine replenishment is rising. The overall non - steel demand is marginally weakening. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, and the fundamentals are relatively healthy. The cost side also provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations [6]. - For ferromanganese, supply has a slight increase in production, basically remaining stable from the previous period. Most production areas' output is flat compared to last week, with a slight increase in Ningxia's output. Inner Mongolia's settlement electricity price in January is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to the change in settlement electricity prices in other production areas. Before the Spring Festival, the production of ferromanganese is expected to be stable. Steel - making demand is expected to have stable iron - making production before the Spring Festival. The contradiction in the finished - product market is relatively limited, and the resumption of iron - making production can suppress inventory contradictions. However, the resumption space is limited by off - season demand, and negative feedback is hard to observe. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's next - month procurement volume is reduced compared to last month, and attention should be paid to the pricing. The non - steel demand is weakening, and the price is falling. The cost of manganese ore is expected to rise, but the increase is limited. In the short term, the high inventory still suppresses the price, and the fundamentals lack impetus. The price of ferromanganese is expected to fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3250 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3290 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3128 yuan/ton, 3177 yuan/ton, and 3211 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3270 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3290 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3288 yuan/ton, 3311 yuan/ton, and 3336 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Plate - billet price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost is 3239 yuan/ton, unchanged, and converter rebar cost is 3168 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. - East China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton, North China hot - rolled coil profit is - 94 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, and South China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. East China rebar profit is - 14 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, North China rebar profit is - 104 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, and South China rebar profit is 146 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [1]. Production - Daily average iron - making production is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. - Total production of five major steel products is 823.20 thousand tons, up 3.6 thousand tons. Rebar production is 199.80 thousand tons, up 0.3 thousand tons, including 32.20 thousand tons of electric - furnace products, down 1.1 thousand tons, and 167.60 thousand tons of converter products, up 1.4 thousand tons. Hot - rolled coil production is 309.20 thousand tons, up 3.8 thousand tons [1]. Inventory - Total inventory of five major steel products is 1278.50 thousand tons, up 21.4 thousand tons. Rebar inventory is 475.50 thousand tons, up 23.4 thousand tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 355.60 thousand tons, down 2.2 thousand tons [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials transaction volume is 5600 tons, down 1700 tons. Apparent consumption of five major steel products is 801.70 thousand tons, down 7.8 thousand tons. Apparent consumption of rebar is 176.40 thousand tons, down 9.1 thousand tons. Apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils is 311.40 thousand tons, up 1.5 thousand tons [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders show different changes. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder is 845.7 yuan/ton, down 9.9 yuan. The 05 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changes, and the 5 - 9 spread is 19.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 31.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port decline. For example, the price of PB powder is 790.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan. The price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 105.6 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports is 25.30 million tons, down 1.297 million tons. The global weekly shipping volume is 29.783 million tons, up 0.484 million tons. The national monthly import volume is 119.647 million tons, up 9.107 million tons [3]. Demand - The weekly average daily iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. The weekly average daily port - clearance volume at 45 ports is 332.30 thousand tons, up 21.6 thousand tons. The national monthly pig - iron output is 60.722 million tons, down 1.621 million tons, and the national monthly crude - steel output is 68.177 million tons, down 1.694 million tons [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory is 170.2226 million tons, up 2.557 million tons. The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 99.686 million tons, up 5.798 million tons. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills is 27 days, up 4 days [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in Shanxi and Mongolia remain stable. The 05 - and 09 - contract prices of coking coal decline, and the basis and spreads show corresponding changes [5]. Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in Shanxi and Rizhao Port change. The 05 - and 09 - contract prices of coke decline, and the basis and spreads change accordingly [5]. Supply - The weekly coke output of all - sample coking plants is 62800 tons, down 500 tons, and the weekly output of 247 steel mills is 47000 tons, up 100 tons. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines shows a decline [5]. Demand - The weekly iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. The weekly coke output of all - sample coking plants is 62800 tons, down 500 tons [5]. Inventory Changes - Coke inventory increases. The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 84400 tons, up 2900 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills is 678200 tons, up 16600 tons. The port inventory is 198100 tons, up 2000 tons. Coking coal inventory also changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot prices in different regions show different changes. The main - contract closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decline [6]. Cost and Profit - The production costs and profits of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions change. For example, the production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is 5866.2 yuan/ton, up slightly [6]. Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon is 98000 tons, up slightly, and the operating rate is 29.1%. The weekly output of ferromanganese is 192000 tons, down slightly, and the operating rate is 36.2% [6]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese calculated by Steel Union shows little change. The weekly average daily iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons [6]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 60 - sample ferrosilicon enterprises is 37300 tons, up slightly, and the average available days for downstream ferrosilicon use increase. The inventory of ferromanganese and its average available days also change [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. The port trade transactions are good, and steel mills' pre - Spring Festival restocking provides some support, with in - plant inventories rising rapidly. However, the molten iron output is weakly stable before the festival, and the daily consumption of iron ore is at a low level. The overseas shipments increased last week, the arrivals decreased month - on - month, the port clearance remained high, and the inventory continued to increase. It is expected that the futures price will show a volatile and pressured trend [1][4][5][6] Summary by Directory Transaction Data - SHFE rebar: The closing price is 3128 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan, a decline of 0.45%. The total trading volume is 5,036,448 lots, and the total open interest is 2,376,275 lots [2] - SHFE hot - rolled coil: The closing price is 3288 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan, a decline of 0.51%. The total trading volume is 1,922,037 lots, and the total open interest is 1,547,118 lots [2] - DCE iron ore: The closing price is 791.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan, a decline of 0.44%. The total trading volume is 1,277,262 lots, and the total open interest is 555,392 lots [2] - DCE coking coal: The closing price is 1155.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan, a decline of 0.13%. The total trading volume is 4,894,069 lots, and the total open interest is 616,871 lots [2] - DCE coke: The closing price is 1721.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan, a decline of 0.03%. The total trading volume is 96,984 lots, and the total open interest is 38,611 lots [2] Market Review - **Demand side**: Last week, the molten iron output was weakly stable. Before the festival, the daily consumption of iron ore was at a low level, the in - plant inventories increased rapidly, and steel mills' restocking provided some support. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week and 1.02 percentage points from the same period last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.47%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous week but an increase of 0.83 percentage points from the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from the previous week and 9.53 percentage points from the same period last year. The daily average molten iron output was 2.2798 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons from the previous week but an increase of 2.53 million tons from the same period last year [4] - **Supply side**: Last week, overseas shipments increased, arrivals decreased month - on - month, port clearance remained high, and inventories continued to increase. The total global iron ore shipments were 2.9783 million tons, an increase of 0.0485 million tons from the previous week. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2.3943 million tons, an increase of 0.1476 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 17.75826 million tons, an increase of 0.26173 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 0.34771 million tons, an increase of 0.02719 million tons [5] Industry News - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the target range of the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, in line with market expectations [10] - According to the World Steel Association, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the statistics of the World Steel Association in December 2025 was 139.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.8494 billion tons [10] - Brazil's Vale released its production and sales report for the fourth quarter of 2025, showing that its iron ore output in the fourth quarter was 90.403 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 4.2% but a year - on - year increase of 6%; the iron ore sales volume in the fourth quarter was 84.874 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1.3% but a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. Vale's total annual iron ore output in 2025 was 336 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [10] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the national steel mill profitability rate, daily average pig iron output, 247 steel mills' daily average molten iron output, national blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, global pig iron and crude steel output trends, iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, and various iron ore inventory and port clearance volume charts [9][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Information - Newman powder: price is 786, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -12; the discounted price on the futures market is 841.1, the import profit is 11.81 [1] - PB powder: price is 790, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -12; the discounted price on the futures market is 841.2 [1] - Mac powder: price is 784, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -16; the discounted price on the futures market is 856.3, the import profit is 34.56 [1] - Jinbuba powder: price is 743, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -12; the discounted price on the futures market is 835.5, the import profit is 41.57 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder: price is 728, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of -2; the discounted price on the futures market is 866.0, the import profit is 3.49 [1] - Super special powder: price is 678, with a daily change of -4 and a weekly change of 0; the discounted price on the futures market is 898.6, the import profit is 5.66 [1] - Carajás powder: price is 890, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 3; the discounted price on the futures market is 824.5, the import profit is -1.05 [1] - Brazilian mixed powder: price is 821, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -12; the discounted price on the futures market is 827.6, the import profit is 5.14 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6: price is 754, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -12; the discounted price on the futures market is 827.1 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG: price is 759, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -12 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate: price is 873, with a daily change of -7 and a weekly change of -5; the discounted price on the futures market is 980.2 [1] - 61% Indian powder: price is 732, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -12 [1] - Karara concentrate: price is 878, with a daily change of -7 and a weekly change of -4; the discounted price on the futures market is 898.4 [1] - Roy Hill powder: price is 777, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -12; the discounted price on the futures market is 855.2, the import profit is 56.23 [1] - KUMBA powder: price is 849, with a daily change of -9 and a weekly change of -12; the discounted price on the futures market is 828.5 [1] - 57% Indian powder: price is 613, with a daily change of -4 and a weekly change of 0 [1] - Atlas powder: price is 723, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of -2 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate: price is 982, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0; the discounted price on the futures market is 869.0 [1] 3.2 Futures Market Information - i2701 contract: latest price is 760.0, with a daily change of -5.5 and a weekly change of -4.5; the monthly spread is 12.5, the latest value of the spread is 64.5, with a daily change of 5.5 and a weekly change of 7.7 [1] - i2605 contract: latest price is 791.5, with a daily change of -7.0 and a weekly change of -3.5; the monthly spread is -31.5, the latest value of the spread is 33.0, with a daily change of 7.0 and a weekly change of 6.7 [1] - i2609 contract: latest price is 772.5, with a daily change of -6.5 and a weekly change of -5.0; the monthly spread is 19.0, the latest value of the spread is 52.0, with a daily change of 6.5 and a weekly change of 8.2 [1] - FE01 contract: latest price is 105.70, with a daily change of 0.20 and a weekly change of 0.05; the spread is -1.93, the latest value of the spread is -64.2, with a daily change of 12.4 and a weekly change of 10.2 [1] - FE05 contract: latest price is 104.80, with a daily change of 1.73 and a weekly change of 1.14; the spread is 0.90, the latest value of the spread is -24.1, with a daily change of 2.9 and a weekly change of 5.1 [1] - FE09 contract: latest price is 103.77, with a daily change of 1.67 and a weekly change of 1.50; the spread is 1.03, the latest value of the spread is -35.5, with a daily change of 2.3 and a weekly change of -0.3 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation and expectations of iron ore are in a state of game, and the price of iron ore is oscillating [3] - The resumption of production by steel mills combined with the end - of - year winter storage replenishment has led to a strong rigid demand for iron ore, and the trading window for the price suppression of high inventory has been postponed [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Price Spreads - Last Friday, the spot price of PB powder was 790 (-10) yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 contract was 791.5 (-4) yuan/ton. The basis of the 05 contract was 32 (+1) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 09 spread was 19 (+1.5) yuan/ton [10] - In the table of Rizhao Port imported ore prices (wet - based tax - included) and iron concentrate powder market prices (dry - based tax - included), the prices of most imported ores decreased this week compared with last week, while the prices of Tangshan and Anshan special iron concentrates remained unchanged [12] 3.2 Iron Ore Supply - Supply remains at a high level, with the year - on - year difference significantly higher than that of last year. Both mainstream and non - mainstream ore supplies are at high levels. The supply of FMG has increased significantly, and the domestic ore production is stable [14][16][18] - When comparing the current week with last week and the same period last year, the global iron ore shipment was 2978.30 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The Australian shipment was 1780.20 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 44.2%. The Brazilian shipment was 544.80 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2530.00 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.8% [4] - In terms of major mines, the shipment volume of Rio Tinto was 569 million tons (+10), BHP was 583 million tons (+143), FMG was 431 million tons (+63), and VALE was 377 million tons (-11) [18] 3.3 Iron Ore Demand - Profit has led steel mills to resume production at low levels, and the rigid demand for iron ore has rebounded. The end - of - year winter storage replenishment by steel mills has further increased the demand for iron ore. The winter storage replenishment has led to the port clearance being significantly higher than the rigid demand for molten iron. Steel mills prefer medium - grade powder ore, and scrap steel has a substitution effect [30][31][33] - The molten iron production was 227.98 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [4] 3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - The accelerated arrival of floating cargoes has led to an increase in supply and a rapid accumulation of inventory. The inventory of Australian ore has increased significantly [38][39] - The 45 - port inventory was 17022.26 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year increase of 14.0% [4] 3.5 Iron Ore Cost - The rise in oil prices has led to an increase in freight rates, including BCI, BDI, West Australia - Qingdao, and Tubarao - Qingdao sea freight [42]