Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are supported by the cost side but constrained by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore has both upward and downward drivers and is expected to trade in a range, with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the coke valuation repair drive may weaken [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside and downside space [48] - With the strengthening expectation of new soda ash capacity coming online, the market is in surplus, and prices are under pressure [62] - Some glass production lines are expected to cold repair before the Spring Festival, affecting long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [85] Summary by Categories Steel Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3097, 3118, and 3167 respectively; hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3288, 3283, and 3296 respectively [4] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3318 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [8][10] Ratios - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore were all 4; to 01, 05, and 09 coke were all 2 on December 26, 2025 [18] Iron Ore Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 801.5, 783, and 761 respectively [22] Fundamentals - On December 26, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 226.58 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons [25] Coking Coal and Coke Futures Spreads - On December 26, 2025, the spreads of coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 were 174, - 80, and - 94 respectively; for coke were 224.5, - 76.5, and - 148 respectively [35] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [38] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On December 26, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 72, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton [49] Silicon Manganese - On December 26, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 100, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5590 yuan/ton [50] Soda Ash Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1200, 1258, and 1121 respectively [63] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the light - soda market price was 1250 yuan/ton [63] Glass Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1057, 1160, and 936 respectively [86] Spot Sales - On December 25, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 102, and in Hubei was 97 [87]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 期现货价格 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3127 -9 -0.29% 2 0.06% 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 元/吨 3280 -5 -0.15% 3 0.09% 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） 元/吨 3310 -10 -0.30% 10 0.30% 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 4.75mm，上海） 元/吨 3280 10 0.31% 0 0 基差与价差 螺纹钢主力基差 元/吨 183 -1 8 热轧卷板主力基差 元/吨 0 15 -3 螺纹钢期货10-1价差 元/吨 65 13 40 热轧卷板期货10-1价差 元/吨 17 3 17 螺纹钢期货1-5价差 元/吨 -20 -5 -21 热轧卷板期货1-5价差 元/吨 2 0 -9 螺纹钢期货5-10价差 元/吨 -45 -8 -19 热轧卷板期货5-10价差 元/吨 -19 -3 -8 热卷01-螺纹01价差 元/吨 175 9 13 热卷05-螺纹05价差 元/吨 153 4 1 热卷10- ...

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3127 CNY/ton, down 9 CNY/ton or 0.29%, with a reduction in open interest by 15,600 contracts [3][12] - The national rebar production increased by 27,100 tons week-on-week to 1,843,900 tons, but decreased by 319,100 tons year-on-year [3][12] - The current supply-demand dynamics are neutral, with strong real demand but expectations of weakening demand as the off-season approaches [3][12] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 778.5 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton or 0.13%, with trading volume of 150,000 contracts and an increase in open interest by 13,000 contracts [4][13] - The total iron ore inventory at 47 ports increased by 3,944,300 tons to 166,199,600 tons, while steel mill inventories rose by 1,360,000 tons to 8,860,000 tons [4][13] - The market is expected to experience volatility due to mixed supply and demand factors, including high furnace maintenance and restarts [4][13] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1124 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton or 0.71%, with an increase in open interest by 3,115 contracts [6][14] - A coal mine accident in Yunnan has led to temporary shutdowns, exacerbating supply tightness [6][14] - Demand remains weak as steel mills continue to face profit pressures, leading to cautious purchasing behavior [6][14] Coking Coke - The coking coke futures contract closed at 1739 CNY/ton, down 7 CNY/ton or 0.4%, with an increase in open interest by 330 contracts [7][14] - The market for coking coke remains stable, with no significant price changes reported at major ports [7][14] - Demand is under pressure due to weak consumption in the market, leading to cautious purchasing strategies from steel mills [7][14] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures contract closed at 5846 CNY/ton, up 0.48%, with a decrease in open interest by 3,752 contracts [8][15] - Weekly manganese silicon production has decreased to a median level compared to previous years, with some factories reducing output [8][15] - Inventory levels among 63 sample enterprises increased by 2,500 tons to 384,500 tons, indicating limited demand support [8][15] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5692 CNY/ton, up 0.85%, with an increase in open interest by 6,584 contracts [9][16] - Recent production data shows a 6.1% decrease in weekly silicon iron output, with both reductions and restarts occurring [9][16] - Inventory levels among 60 sample enterprises decreased by 1,550 tons to 63,610 tons, suggesting a tightening supply situation [9][16]

黑色建材日报 2025-12-26 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3127 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 9 元/吨（-0.28%）。当日注册仓单 58627 吨, 环比减少 2057 吨。主力合约持仓量为 158.1839 万手，环比减少 15590 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3310 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3280 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 5 元/吨（-0.15%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比增加 295 吨。主力合约持仓量为 123.8912 万手，环比增加 9350 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元 /吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z00 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 790, up 2 from the previous day and down 1 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 845.5 and an import profit of 17.17; PB powder price is 793, up 2 from the previous day and down 1 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 844.5 and an import profit of -15.25; Mac powder price is 785, down 1 from the previous day and up 1 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 857.4 and an import profit of 39.47; Jinbuba powder price is 746, up 2 from the previous day and down 1 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 838.8 and an import profit of 37.64; Mixed powder price is 734, unchanged from the previous day and down 4 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 872.5 and an import profit of 5.25; Super special powder price is 673, unchanged from the previous day and down 5 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 893.1 and an import profit of -11.38; Roy Hill powder price is 780, up 2 from the previous day and down 1 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 858.5 and an import profit of 38.66 [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore price is 829, up 2 from the previous day and down 3 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 836.3 and an import profit of -0.78; Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 757, up 2 from the previous day and down 7 for the week; Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 762, up 2 from the previous day and down 7 for the week [1] - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate price is 871, down 4 from the previous day and down 2 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 948.6; 61% Indian powder price is 735, up 2 from the previous day and down 1 for the week; Karara concentrate price is 875, unchanged from the previous day and up 2 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 895.1; 57% Indian powder price is 608, unchanged from the previous day and down 5 for the week; Atlas powder price is 729, unchanged from the previous day and down 4 for the week; KUMBA powder price is 852, up 2 from the previous day and down 1 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 831.5; Tangshan iron concentrate price is 976, unchanged from the previous day and for the week, with a discounted futures price of 863 [1] Futures Market - **Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts**: i2601 price is 798.0, unchanged from the previous day and up 1 for the week, with a monthly spread of -41.0 and a spread change of 5.9 from the previous day and -2.1 for the week; i2605 price is 778.5, down 1 from the previous day and up 1 for the week, with a monthly spread of 19.5 and a spread change of 25.4 from the previous day and -2.1 for the week; i2609 price is 757.0, down 1 from the previous day and up 2 for the week, with a monthly spread of 21.5 and a spread change of 46.9 from the previous day and -3.1 for the week [1] - **Singapore Exchange Contracts**: FE01 price is 104.05, down 0.32 from the previous day and up 0.40 for the week, with a monthly spread of -3.69 and a spread change of -28.4 from the previous day and 8.1 for the week; FE05 price is 102.37, down 0.16 from the previous day and up 0.84 for the week, with a monthly spread of 1.68 and a spread change of -33.5 from the previous day and 6.6 for the week; FE09 price is 100.36, down 0.05 from the previous day and up 0.91 for the week, with a monthly spread of 2.01 and a spread change of -39.1 from the previous day and 7.0 for the week [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends and economic indicators, highlighting the mixed signals in various sectors, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil, while emphasizing the potential for policy support and market recovery in the near future [1][2][3][4]. Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged to a historical high, driven by lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data, which stands at 2.7% year-on-year, below the anticipated 3.1% [2][17]. - The overall downtrend in CPI provides room for interest rate cuts, supporting the long-term upward trend in precious metals due to factors like weakened dollar credit and central bank gold purchases [2][17]. Stock Indices - U.S. stock markets were closed, but previous trading saw an increase in stock indices, particularly in the defense and military sectors, with a total market turnover of 1.94 trillion yuan [3][10]. - The financing balance increased by 10.127 billion yuan, indicating a positive outlook for A-shares, supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment [3][10]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices saw a slight increase of 0.38%, with Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reaching a two-and-a-half-year high of 7.1 million barrels in October, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [4][13]. - Despite geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia, the overall trend for crude oil remains downward [4][13]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a mixed picture, with an addition of 64,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [2][17]. - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery [7][12]. Industry News - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a notice to Sunflower regarding its asset acquisition plan, indicating ongoing corporate activities and market dynamics [8]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index showed fluctuations, with expectations for price stability as shipping companies prepare for increased demand ahead of the Lunar New Year [30].

Group 1: Report Core Information - **Report Type**: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - **Report Date**: December 25, 2025 [1] - **Research Team**: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - **Data Source**: MYSTEEL [2] Group 2: Spot Market Information Australian Mainstream Iron Ore - Newman powder: The latest price is 788, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4; the discounted futures price is 843.3; the import profit is 14.69 [1] - PB powder: The latest price is 791, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4; the discounted futures price is 842.3; the import profit is -17.75 [1] - Macarthur powder: The latest price is 786, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 6; the discounted futures price is 858.5; the import profit is 40.00 [1] - Jinbuba powder: The latest price is 744, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4; the discounted futures price is 836.6; the import profit is 35.20 [1] - Mixed powder: The latest price is 734, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 5; the discounted futures price is 872.5; the import profit is 4.79 [1] - Super Special powder: The latest price is 673, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of -2; the discounted futures price is 893.1; the import profit is -11.80 [1] - Carajás powder: The latest price is 870, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0; the discounted futures price is 802.8; the import profit is -35.72 [1] Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore - Brazilian mixed ore: The latest price is 827, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of 2; the discounted futures price is 834.1; the import profit is -3.30 [1] - Brazilian coarse ore IOC6: The latest price is 755, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of -2 [1] - Brazilian coarse ore SSFG: The latest price is 760, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of -2 [1] Other Iron Ore - Ukrainian concentrate: The latest price is 875, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 10; the discounted futures price is 945.2 [1] - 61% Indian powder: The latest price is 733, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4 [1] - Karara concentrate: The latest price is 875, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 10; the discounted futures price is 895.1 [1] - Roy Hill powder: The latest price is 778, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4; the discounted futures price is 856.3; the import profit is 36.19 [1] - KUMBA powder: The latest price is 850, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4; the discounted futures price is 829.5 [1] - 57% Indian powder: The latest price is 608, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of -2 [1] - Atlas powder: The latest price is 729, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 5 [1] Domestic Iron Ore - Tangshan iron concentrate: The latest price is 976, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 7; the discounted futures price is 863.0 [1] Group 3: Futures Market Information Dalian Commodity Exchange - i2601 contract: The latest price is 798.0, with a daily change of 1.5 and a weekly change of 9.5; the inter - monthly spread is -40.0, with a daily change of 4.8, a weekly change of -1.5, and a monthly change of -9.5 [1] - i2605 contract: The latest price is 779.5, with a daily change of 1.0 and a weekly change of 11.5; the inter - monthly spread is 18.5, with a daily change of 23.3, a weekly change of -1.0, and a monthly change of -11.5 [1] - i2609 contract: The latest price is 758.0, with a daily change of 1.5 and a weekly change of 12.5; the inter - monthly spread is 21.5, with a daily change of 44.8, a weekly change of -1.5, and a monthly change of -12.5 [1] Singapore Exchange - FE01 contract: The latest price is 104.37, with a daily change of -0.39 and a weekly change of 1.82; the inter - monthly spread is -3.96, with a daily change of -33.4, a weekly change of 2.1, and a monthly change of -0.9 [1] - FE05 contract: The latest price is 102.53, with a daily change of -0.28 and a weekly change of 2.05; the inter - monthly spread is 1.84, with a daily change of -36.8, a weekly change of -0.8, and a monthly change of 1.7 [1] - FE09 contract: The latest price is 100.41, with a daily change of -0.34 and a weekly change of 2.00; the inter - monthly spread is 2.12, with a daily change of -41.9, a weekly change of -1.3, and a monthly change of 1.6 [1]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, and the intraday trend being slightly weaker. The current situation is weakly stable, and the ore price will move in an oscillatory manner [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has not improved. Demand continues to weaken and steel mills' profitability has not improved, keeping the weak pattern. The supply remains high, but there are positive factors like the unresolved structural contradiction in the spot market and the pre - holiday restocking expectation. The ore price will continue to face pressure but also has resistance to decline, and will continue to oscillate at a high level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term (within one week) trend is oscillatory, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is slightly weaker. The overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the current pattern is weakly stable, leading to oscillatory movement of the ore price [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand situation is unfavorable, with demand weakening continuously and steel mills' profit not improving, which keeps the pressure on the ore price. The positive factors are the pre - holiday restocking expectation and the unresolved structural contradiction in the spot market. Although the domestic port arrival and miners' shipments have decreased month - on - month, they are still at a high level within the year, and the overseas ore supply is active. The overall supply remains high, and under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue to oscillate at a high level, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be monitored [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic environment, highlighting the Chinese central bank's continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the recent adjustments in the Beijing housing market to support home purchases by non-local families and families with multiple children [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the agriculture sector lagged behind. The market turnover reached 1.90 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 14.859 billion yuan to 25,145.96 billion yuan [2][12]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment, with the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut likely to enhance global capital flow and risk appetite [2][12]. Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest level in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][15]. - The overall trend in the oil market remains downward, influenced by geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector [3][15]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Palm oil prices are expected to improve due to better export data from Malaysia, while soybean oil faces downward pressure from high production expectations [4][30]. - The domestic soybean market is experiencing a supply surplus, with auction prices declining, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean meal prices [29][30]. Group 4: Metals - Gold and silver prices are stabilizing, supported by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which may provide room for further interest rate cuts [20]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to tight supply conditions and fluctuating demand from various sectors, including automotive and construction [21]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a slight decline, with expectations for price stabilization as shipping companies adjust their pricing strategies ahead of the upcoming Chinese New Year [33].

转自：草原云 发布会现场。 12月24日，内蒙古自治区人民政府新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍内蒙古推进新一轮找矿突破战略行 动，全面提升矿产资源保障能力，建设国家能源和战略资源基地相关情况。 创新机制激发市场活力。内蒙古积极开展自然资源部社会资本投入战略性矿产调查试点工作，2025年在 赤峰市、锡林郭勒盟部署8个试点项目，着力探索社会资本参与找矿的激励机制，力争形成可复制、可 推广的经验模式。 内蒙古日报·草原云记者：王彬 新闻编辑：李超然 "十四五"期间，内蒙古自治区全面实施新一轮找矿突破战略行动，累计投入各类资金近60亿元，实现煤 炭、铁矿石、锂、铜、金等一批优势和紧缺战略性矿产实现大幅增储，为国家能源和战略资源安全筑牢 储备屏障。 多元投入为找矿提供强劲动力。其中，中央财政投入5.57亿元，完成1:5万区域地质调查2万平方公里， 重点开展中东部地区能源资源基地综合调查，强化二连盆地、鄂尔多斯盆地等区域能源矿产调查评价； 内蒙古自治区财政投入26.16亿元，完成1:2.5万战略性矿产调查2.16万平方公里、能源矿产调查3.31万平 方公里，提交找矿区块300余处；社会资金投入27.98亿元，新发现战略性矿 ...