Report Overview - The report is an iron ore morning report from the Black Team of the Research Center, dated November 10, 2025, with data sourced from MYSTEEL [1] Spot Market Australian Mainstream Iron Ore - Newman powder: latest price 770, daily change -8, weekly change -30, converted to futures price 823.7, import profit -12.88 [1] - PB powder: latest price 773, daily change -12, weekly change -30, converted to futures price 819.6, import profit -9.19 [1] - Macarthur powder: latest price 770, daily change -10, weekly change -25, converted to futures price 841.1, import profit 18.17 [1] - Jinbuba powder: latest price 724, daily change -12, weekly change -28, converted to futures price 815.1, import profit 4.99 [1] - Mixed powder: latest price 725, daily change -12, weekly change -37, converted to futures price 853.8, import profit 1.76 [1] - Super Special powder: latest price 673, daily change -14, weekly change -35, converted to futures price 887.1, import profit -4.46 [1] - Carajás fines (Carajas Fine): latest price 878, daily change -15, weekly change -35, converted to futures price 821.9, import profit 8.31 [1] Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore - Brazilian Blend: latest price 814, daily change -7, weekly change -26, converted to futures price 828.7, import profit 10.08 [1] - Brazilian Coarse IOC6: latest price 775, daily change -12, weekly change -30, converted to futures price 850.1 [1] - Brazilian Coarse SSFG: latest price 780, daily change -12, weekly change -30 [1] Other Iron Ore - Ukrainian Concentrate: latest price 875, daily change -15, weekly change -35, converted to futures price 964.4 [1] - 61% Indian Iron Ore: latest price 713, daily change -12, weekly change -28 [1] - Karara Concentrate: latest price 877, daily change -15, weekly change -33, converted to futures price 897.3 [1] - Roy Hill powder: latest price 760, daily change -12, weekly change -30, converted to futures price 836.6, import profit 21.98 [1] - KUMBA powder: latest price 832, daily change -12, weekly change -30, converted to futures price 823.0 [1] - 57% Indian Iron Ore: latest price 608, daily change -14, weekly change -35 [1] - Atlas powder: latest price 720, daily change -12, weekly change -37 [1] Domestic Iron Ore - Tangshan Iron Concentrate: latest price 1008, daily change 0, weekly change -28, converted to futures price 895.0 [1] Futures Market Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts - i2601: latest price 760.5, daily change -17.0, weekly change -39.5, monthly spread -38.5 [1] - i2605: latest price 740.0, daily change -16.0, weekly change -36.5, monthly spread 20.5 [1] - i2609: latest price 722.0, daily change -13.0, weekly change -33.0, monthly spread 18.0 [1] Singapore Exchange Contracts - FE01: latest price 100.75, daily change 0.28, weekly change -2.60, monthly spread -4.32 [1] - FE05: latest price 98.50, daily change 0.32, weekly change -2.51, monthly spread 2.25 [1] - FE09: latest price 96.43, daily change 0.33, weekly change -2.53, monthly spread 2.07 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Terminal demand is the main factor influencing medium - term iron ore prices, with domestic demand weakening and overseas demand maintaining high growth. Iron ore fundamentals have changed significantly, and prices are expected to be bearish at high levels [3]. - Unilateral trading should adopt a bearish approach, while arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Iron Ore Shipment - Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% or 22.7 million tons. Australian shipments decreased by 0.3% or 2.3 million tons year - on - year, while Brazilian shipments increased by 3.5% or 11 million tons year - on - year [14]. - From the perspective of mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil, since 2025, Rio Tinto's shipments have decreased by 0.3% or 1 million tons year - on - year, BHP's by 1% or 2.5 million tons, FMG's increased by 5.6% or 8.9 million tons, and VALE's increased by 0.2% or 0.5 million tons. The overall supply of the four major mines has increased by 5 million tons year - on - year [14]. - In the first three quarters, the total output of the four major mines was 852 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% or 10 million tons, with most of the increase contributed by Fortescue. The total shipments were 830 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% or 1 million tons [14]. Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment - Since 2025, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments is 5.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% or 14 million tons. Australian non - mainstream shipments decreased by 7% or 8 million tons year - on - year, while Brazilian non - mainstream shipments increased by 13% or 10.6 million tons year - on - year [16]. - An increase of $10 in the average Platts index corresponds to an annual increase of about 30 - 40 million tons in non - mainstream ore production. Non - mainstream ore shipments improved in the third quarter, and the year - on - year increase in shipments in the fourth quarter is expected to slow down [16]. Iron Ore Inventory - This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore increased significantly, the port congestion decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly, resulting in a significant increase of nearly 4 million tons in the total domestic imported iron ore inventory [22]. - Since August, the total domestic iron element inventory has continued to increase, with an accumulation of over 10 million tons. The total domestic iron element inventory is currently at a high level in the past five years, second only to the level in 2021 [25]. Iron Ore Demand - Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic hot metal production has increased by 3.7% or 11 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel production has increased by 3.5% or 12.6 million tons year - on - year. However, the apparent demand for building materials has decreased by 5.6% or 9 million tons year - on - year, and the apparent demand for non - building materials has decreased by 1.7% or 3 million tons year - on - year. Domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) has decreased by 3.5% or 11.9 million tons year - on - year [30]. - In the first nine months, overseas iron ore consumption decreased by 2% or 15 million tons year - on - year, but overseas iron element consumption increased by nearly 4% or 27.6 million tons year - on - year. India's overseas crude steel production increased by 10% or 11.6 million tons year - on - year in the first nine months, and is expected to contribute an increment of 15 million tons for the whole year [30].

Report Information - Report Title: Hualian Futures Iron Ore Weekly Report - Supply Strong, Demand Weak, Iron Ore Oscillating Downward [1] - Date: 20251109 [1] - Author: Zeng Ke [1] - Reviewer: Xiao Yonghui [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - After the macro - events, during the policy vacuum period, iron ore prices returned to the real - world situation, showing an oscillating downward trend last week. Supply is strong with a significant increase in near - end foreign ore arrivals and high historical shipping volumes, while demand is weak as pig iron production continues to decline, steel mill profitability drops sharply, and blast furnace maintenance expands. With supply exceeding demand, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - Strategy: Short the Iron Ore 2601 contract on rallies, with a reference pressure level of 820 - 850 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipping**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 174,600 tons week - on - week to 3.2138 million tons. Non - mainstream regions' shipping decreased by 13,600 tons week - on - week to 530,300 tons [4][39]. - **Australia and Brazil Shipping**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, Australia's 19 ports shipped 1.8275 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 92,000 tons; Brazil's 19 ports shipped 856,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,100 tons [4][36]. - **Arrival Volume**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the arrival volume at China's 45 ports increased by 1.1893 million tons week - on - week to 3.2184 million tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1.5859 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 490,000 tons [4][48]. - **Domestic Mine Supply**: As of November 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 126 mine enterprises was 63.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%; the daily average output of iron concentrate powder was 39,880 tons/day, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous week [61]. 3.2 Demand - **Pig Iron Production and Blast Furnace Operation**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.38%; the daily average pig iron output decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 234,220 tons, and pig iron production continued to decline [4][64]. - **Steel Mill Profitability**: As of November 7, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 39.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.19% [4][78]. - **Consumption of Downstream Products**: The report shows historical data trends of consumption and production of products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, but no specific demand - related data summaries are provided [70][74]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of November 7, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 14.89883 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 356,350 tons. Among them, Australian ore inventory was 6.17069 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,290 tons; Brazilian ore inventory was 5.87431 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,440 tons [4][17][21]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill imported iron ore inventory was 9.00994 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 160,080 tons. The average available days of imported ore inventory for a small sample of steel mills was 21 days, the same as the previous week [4][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply - demand expectation of iron ore has marginally eased, and the valuation has declined from a high level [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore View - Supply: Overseas mines still have the driving force to boost shipments at the end of the year, and the market still expects more mainstream ore shipment increments in the future [5]. - Demand: The decline of hot metal production has accelerated recently, and the market's expectation of negative feedback from the industrial end has increased [5]. - Macro - level: Recently, the domestic policy has been relatively quiet, and the macro - risk preferences at home and abroad have diverged, which restricts the further upward breakthrough of the valuation of domestic risk assets to some extent [5]. - Logic summary: With the increasing inventory pressure of downstream finished products and the end of the demand peak season, the decline of blast furnace operation rate of downstream steel mills has accelerated. The market's concern about potential negative feedback has also increased. Coupled with the relatively loose supply increment, the inventory accumulation speed of domestic iron ore ports has also accelerated. Considering the demand pressure on raw materials and the relatively tight fundamentals of coking coal and coke, the iron ore valuation has dropped significantly to transfer profits to other varieties in the steel chain [5]. 3.2 Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 760.5 yuan/ton, with a position of 559,000 lots, an increase of 19,100 lots. The average daily trading volume was 331,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 4,700 lots [7]. 3.3 Spot Price Performance - Spot prices also dropped significantly. For example, the price of Caffey (64.5%) decreased from 913 yuan/ton last week to 878 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton [11]. 3.4 Iron Ore Supply - Side 3.4.1 Mainstream Ore - Overseas shipments decreased month - on - month but were still at a high level year - on - year. Vale showed a trend of increasing shipments recently [15][17]. 3.4.2 Non - mainstream Ore - Canada's recent shipments increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [19]. 3.4.3 Domestic Mines - The operating rate in the southwest region fluctuated again [28]. 3.5 Iron Ore Demand - Side 3.5.1 Downstream - The decline of hot metal production accelerated recently, and the production of five major steel products changed from an increase to a decrease [31]. 3.5.2 Substitution Effect of Scrap Steel - As the iron ore price drove the overall decline of raw material costs, the scrap - hot metal price difference rebounded after reaching a phased bottom [34]. 3.6 Iron Ore Inventory - Side - The inventory accumulation at domestic ports accelerated [38][39]. 3.7 Downstream Profit - The disk profit of steel products rebounded after reaching a bottom [41]. 3.8 Spot Category Price Difference - The price of PB powder has been relatively strong recently, and the price differences such as Caffey - PB, PB - Super Special, and PB lump - powder have shown a certain regression trend [43]. 3.9 Disk Monthly Spread - The decline of near - month contracts was relatively large, and the monthly spreads of 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 narrowed slightly [45]. 3.10 Basis Performance - The futures price corrected significantly this week, and the basis increased month - on - month [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Looking ahead to November, on the supply side, overseas shipments in October continued to be strong, with a significant increase in arrivals. Shipments are expected to decline month-on-month in November. On the demand side, since late October, affected by environmental protection restrictions in Hebei and a sharp decline in steel mill profits, the daily average pig iron output has fallen below 2.4 million tons. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills has dropped to the lowest level of the year, and the terminal data is weak. It is expected that the pig iron output in November will continue to decline compared to October, and the supply and demand of iron ore are expected to weaken. In terms of inventory, the accumulation of port inventory has intensified, and inventory pressure is still expected in November. Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session was held in late October, and progress was made in the China-US economic and trade consultations at the end of the month, with a meeting between the two heads of state, giving certain positive signals. During this period, the iron ore price rebounded periodically. After the macro enters a short-term vacuum period, it is expected that the futures market logic will return to the industrial reality, and the iron ore price will face downward pressure [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: In October, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 32.8444 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,700 tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 15.8964 million tons, a decrease of 194,600 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 8.486 million tons, an increase of 955,000 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.8428 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.2283 million tons [13]. - **Demand**: The estimated daily average domestic pig iron output in October was 2.3989 million tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous month [13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 145.4248 million tons, an increase of 5.6469 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1888 million tons, a decrease of 122,800 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9667 million tons, an increase of 316,000 tons from the previous month [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Difference**: At the end of October, the price difference between PB and Super Special powder was 93 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 22 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás and PB powder was 110 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 29 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás and Jinbuba powder was 169 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The price difference between (Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 and PB powder was 8.5 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 25.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of October, the pelletizing feed ratio was 14.92%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.3%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The sinter feed ratio was 72.78%, with no change from the end of the previous month. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of October, the profitability rate of steel mills was 45.02%, a decrease of 12.99 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 145.4248 million tons, an increase of 5.6469 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 2.8692 million tons, an increase of 82,700 tons from the end of the previous month. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 11.5383 million tons, an increase of 707,700 tons from the end of the previous month. The lump ore inventory was 18.623 million tons, an increase of 1.4017 million tons from the end of the previous month. The Australian ore port inventory was 60.174 million tons, a change of 1.0121 million tons from the end of the previous month. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 57.4387 million tons, an increase of 3.8935 million tons from the end of the previous month [35][38][41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 88.4986 million tons, a decrease of 8.8653 million tons from the end of the previous month [45]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In October, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 15.8964 million tons, a decrease of 194,600 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 8.486 million tons, an increase of 955,000 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 6.8054 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 58,400 tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.6104 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 169,600 tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 6.2686 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 870,100 tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.8316 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 306,900 tons [50][53][56]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: In October, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.8428 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.2283 million tons. In September, China's non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore imports were 18.5836 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.6846 million tons [59]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of October, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 60.96%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 476,400 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the end of the previous month [62]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Pig Iron Output and Blast Furnace Utilization**: The estimated domestic pig iron output in October was 74.3668 million tons, with a daily average of 2.3989 million tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous month. At the end of October, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.61%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the end of the previous month [67]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In October, the weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1888 million tons, a decrease of 122,800 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9667 million tons, an increase of 316,000 tons from the previous month [70]. 3.6 Basis As of October 31, the estimated basis of the iron ore BRBF main contract was 67.35 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 7.83% [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term macro - driving forces have weakened, steel mill profits are fragile, and production cuts are insufficient, especially the high supply - demand contradiction in the plate segment, which exerts pressure on iron ore demand. With supply remaining high, continuous port inventory accumulation, and the squeeze from the coking coal end, it is expected that the overall iron ore price will continue to show a weak - running trend [3][4][7]. - There are some positive factors, such as the rising basis and the long - term loose overseas monetary and fiscal policies. However, the negative factors dominate the current market situation [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Macro - level**: The PMI of both China and the US in October showed a month - on - month decline, indicating fluctuations in the global trade environment and a marginal slowdown in internal demand. Short - term market driving forces are on hold due to factors like Powell's hawkish stance and the risk of a US government shutdown, and risk appetite has declined [4]. - **Supply and inventory**: Port inventory has continued to accumulate to 15,624 tons, a month - on - month increase of 351 tons. The shipment volume remains at a high level, while the molten iron output is gradually decreasing, putting pressure on prices. The current high - price level encourages mainstream mines to maintain strong shipment willingness, and the port inventory accumulation pattern may continue [4][6]. - **Demand side**: The daily average molten iron output has decreased by 20,000 tons to 2.34 million tons. Some high - cost and severely loss - making steel mills have implemented marginal production cuts, and steel mill profits have slightly recovered but are still fragile. Further production cuts are needed to ease industrial chain contradictions [6]. - **Valuation level**: Coking coal remains strong, with a tight supply and low - inventory structure. The price difference between coking coal and iron ore in the 01 contract has continued to widen, squeezing steel mill profits and suppressing iron ore prices [7]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations Perform range - bound operations on the Iron Ore 2601 contract, with the range being [760, 810] [7]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations Provide risk management strategy recommendations for iron ore in November, including different scenarios, risk exposures, strategy recommendations, hedging tools, trading directions, hedging ratios, and recommended entry intervals [8]. 3.1.4 Core Data - **Black产业链成本利润表**: Data such as molten iron cost, blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit, blast furnace rebar profit, etc., show weekly and monthly changes [9]. - **Iron ore weekly shipment data**: Global, Australian, Brazilian, and other regions' shipment volumes show different degrees of changes [10][11]. - **Iron ore demand weekly data**: Indicators such as daily average port clearance volume, daily average molten iron output, blast furnace operating rate, etc., have corresponding changes [12]. - **Iron ore inventory weekly data**: Port inventory, trade ore proportion, and steel mill inventory data show changes in inventory status [13]. 3.2 Supply 3.2.1 Global Shipment Analysis Analyze the seasonality, year - on - year changes, and over - seasonality of global iron ore shipments through various charts [14][15][16]. 3.2.2 Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis Analyze the seasonality, year - on - year changes, and over - seasonality of shipments from the four major iron ore mines [17][18][19]. 3.2.3 Non - mainstream Ore Shipment Analysis Examine the seasonality, year - on - year changes, and over - seasonality of non - mainstream ore shipments, and note that the Platts iron ore index leads non - mainstream shipments by about 5 weeks [23][24][26]. 3.2.4 Arrival and Berthing Analysis Analyze the seasonality and year - on - year changes of the arrival volume at 47 ports, the number of ships in port, berthing days, and actual arrival volume [29][30][31]. 3.2.5 Capsize Shipping Analysis Examine the seasonality of freight prices for capsize ships on different routes, the proportion of iron ore freight, ship speed, and global weekly floating inventory [34][35][40]. 3.2.6 Domestic Ore Supply Analysis Analyze the seasonality and year - on - year changes of the daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines [41][42][45]. 3.3 Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Molten Iron Analysis Analyze the seasonality, over - seasonality, and year - on - year changes of the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel enterprises, and make predictions on blast furnace maintenance [46][47][49]. 3.3.2 Steel Mill Profit Analysis Analyze the relationship between molten iron output and iron ore prices, and the seasonality of various steel product profits and their leading effects on production [50][52][53]. 3.3.3 Downstream Steel Analysis - **Rebar**: Analyze the production, consumption, inventory, and cost of rebar [65][66][67]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Examine the production, consumption, inventory, and price difference of hot - rolled coils [72][73][74]. - **Medium - thick plate**: Analyze the production, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [75][77][78]. - **Other steel products**: Analyze the production, inventory, and apparent demand of various other steel products such as H - beams, angle steels, galvanized coils, etc. [81][82][85]. 3.3.4 Export Analysis Analyze the monthly export volume of steel products, port departure volume, export orders, and export profits [100][101][103]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis 3.4.1 Port Inventory Analysis Analyze the seasonality, structure, and over - seasonality of iron ore port inventory, as well as the relationship between inventory and prices [104][105][106]. 3.4.2 Other Inventory Analysis Examine the seasonality of trade ore inventory, steel mill inventory, and inventory turnover days [121][122][127]. 3.5 Valuation Analysis 3.5.1 Basis and Term Structure - Provide the iron ore warehouse receipt price table, showing the basis and delivery profit of different iron ore varieties [128]. - Analyze the seasonality of the basis of different iron ore contracts [129][130]. 3.5.2 Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio Analyze the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio of different contracts [131][132][135]. 3.5.3 Coking Coal Ratio Analysis Analyze the seasonality of the price difference between coking coal and iron ore of different contracts and the cost - sharing relationship between coking coal and iron ore [138][139][144]. 3.5.4 Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis Analyze the iron - scrap price difference, scrap steel cost - effectiveness, and the relationship between scrap steel consumption ratio and iron - scrap price difference [145][146][147].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [4] Group 2: Black Variety Strategy Recommendations RB2601 - Latest Price: 3034 - Strategy Direction: Oscillate Strongly - Dominant Factors: New environmental protection and production restriction draft released, steel mills' production reduction rhythm accelerating, large demand decline, slowdown in social inventory destocking, iron ore price decline, continued strength of coking coal prices, favorable industrial policies, positive macro - economic expectations, temporary suspension of trade war disturbances, and medium - long - term anti - involution [6] HC2601 - Latest Price: 3245 - Strategy Direction: Oscillate Weakly - Dominant Factors: Decline in both production and apparent demand of five major steel products, continuous decline in daily average hot metal output for 6 weeks with an enlarged decline recently, continuous narrowing of steel mills' profits suppressing production enthusiasm and affecting raw material demand, and steel mills maintaining on - demand restocking [6] I2601 - Latest Price: 760.5 - Strategy Direction: Oscillate Weakly - Dominant Factors: Similar to HC2601 [6] Group 3: Unilateral Logic Basis RB2601 and HC2601 - Message: On October 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a new draft of the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry", with stricter requirements on replacement ratios than the 2021 version. Also, it proposed restrictions on capacity replacement between different enterprises in the future [7] - Fundamentals: Steel mills' production reduction rhythm is accelerating, but due to large demand decline, social inventory destocking slows down. Iron ore prices have fallen since late October, while coking coal prices remain strong, and steel costs are still resilient. Steel futures are expected to have limited downside space, and may rebound in mid - to - late November [7][8] I2601 - Supply: Australian and Brazilian shipments have declined, and arrivals have rebounded after two weeks of low levels. Near - term arrivals are expected to be high, and the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea in November may suppress far - month contracts. - Demand: Daily average hot metal output has continuously declined, and steel production and demand have decreased. Steel mills are restocking on - demand, and port inventory is accumulating [9] Group 4: Steel Analysis Fundamentals - Price: Some prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets declined in the week of November 7 [11] - Production: Blast furnace capacity utilization rate and crude steel output of key enterprises, daily average hot metal output, and production of five major steel products all decreased. Steel mills' inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [12][15] - Inventory: Rebar social inventory in 35 cities decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, while hot - rolled coil social inventory in 33 cities increased [18] - Demand: Real estate investment decreased year - on - year, while automobile, metal - cutting machine tool, and shipbuilding production increased year - on - year [18] - Apparent Consumption and Profit: Apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils declined, and rebar contract's disk profit showed an expanding loss [21] - Spot Gross Margin: Spot gross margin of long - process and short - process steel mills' rebar showed expanding losses [25] Conclusions and Recommendations - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: Downside space is limited. Consider buying hedging or investment in large basis intervals, or arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to spot market resilience and production data [25][28] - Basis: Rebar basis is expected to oscillate between 120 - 180 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil basis is expected to oscillate between 0 - 40 yuan/ton [29][31] Group 5: Iron Ore Analysis Fundamentals - Price and Spread: 62% Platts iron ore index and Qingdao Port 61.5% PB powder price decreased. Spreads between some high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder changed [32] - Inventory and Ship - unloading Volume: 45 - port iron ore inventory accumulated rapidly, daily average ship - unloading volume increased, and steel mills' imported ore inventory available days remained at 21 days [35] - Shipment and Arrival: Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased, and arrivals increased. Near - term arrivals are expected to be high [39] - Domestic Production and Capacity Utilization: Domestic iron ore production decreased year - on - year, and domestic mine capacity utilization rate decreased [47] - Port Trading Volume and Hot Metal Cost: Port trading volume increased, and the average hot metal cost of 64 sample steel mills increased [49] - Hot Metal Output, Blast Furnace Operation: Daily average hot metal output decreased, blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased, and blast furnace operation rate increased. Steel enterprises' profitability decreased [52] - Steel Production and Inventory: Production and consumption of five major steel products decreased, and total inventory decreased [54] - Transportation Cost: Major iron ore freight prices increased, and BDI and BCI indices rose [59] Conclusions and Recommendations - Iron Ore: Supply has an increasing expectation, demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak. Consider the "long rebar, short iron ore" arbitrage strategy [64][65] - Basis: The basis between Qingdao Port iron ore spot price and iron ore futures 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 40 - 100 yuan/ton [65]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply of iron ore has slightly declined but remains high. The downstream profit has significantly decreased, and demand may continue to decline. However, the inventory of downstream finished products is still being reduced. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, but the high basis recently may suppress the weakness of futures prices [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments have declined but are still significantly high. Shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased, and shipments from non - mainstream regions have been consistently weak. The arrival volume has increased [4]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production has decreased significantly, the profit of finished steel products has continued to weaken, and the scrap - iron price difference has continued to decline. The average daily hot metal production of 247 samples has decreased by 3.6 tons week - on - week to 236.36 tons. With more recent maintenance, hot metal production may continue to decline [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports has increased by 117 tons week - on - week, the berthing volume has slightly decreased, and the total volume has decreased slightly. The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased slightly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils has decreased slightly [4]. 3.2 Month - to - Month Spread The month - to - month spread may remain volatile in the short term [5]. 3.3 Discount & Exchange Rate The average value of the 10 - month MA index is 105, corresponding to a disk valuation of approximately 823 [6]. 3.4 Differences between Varieties The premium of Jinbabu powder has stabilized; the premiums of mainstream medium - and low - grade ores have remained stable; the price difference between domestic and foreign ores has slightly increased [7]. 3.5 Spot Market - **Volume**: The trading volume of iron ore spot has increased, and the trading volume of forward contracts has stabilized. The basis rate of the 01 contract is about 2.8%, the basis has narrowed, and the basis rate has decreased [8]. - **Hot Metal**: The hot metal production of 247 samples announced by Steel Union this week is 239.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05 tons. The average daily hot metal production in October is about 239.9 tons. Short - term demand has slightly decreased, and hot metal production may decline slowly [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports has increased by 139 tons week - on - week, and the proportion of trade ore is 64.1%. The total inventory of imported ore at steel mills has increased by 97 tons, the inventory at the mill has decreased by 36 tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory has increased by 133 tons. The available days of imported ore have remained unchanged at 20 days [8]. - **Profit**: The profit of finished steel products has continued to weaken; the scrap - iron price difference in Tangshan has decreased; the proportion of lump ore in the furnace has slightly decreased, the proportion of pellet ore in the furnace has decreased; and the proportion of sinter in the furnace has continued to increase [8]. 3.6 Global Shipments On November 3, 2025, according to Reuters, the 7 - day moving average shipment volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 4,571 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.8% and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume from Australia was 2,650 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume from Brazil was 1,164 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [30]. 3.7 Balance Sheet - **Supply**: The total supply in 2025 shows fluctuations, with imports being the main part. The supply in November 2025 is expected to be 13,214 tons [192]. - **Consumption**: Total consumption also fluctuates. The consumption in November 2025 is expected to be 11,843 tons [192]. - **Surplus**: There are periods of surplus and deficit. In November 2025, there is an expected surplus of 1,184 tons [192]. - **Year - on - Year Changes**: The cumulative year - on - year change in total supply and total consumption shows different trends. The cumulative year - on - year change in total supply in November 2025 is 0.6%, and that of total consumption is - 5.3% [192].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, but the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the consumption side of steel may gradually recover. In the short term, demand is still weak, but there may be an inflection point in the future [2]. - For iron ore, due to environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profits, the demand side continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains high. After the macro - events are realized, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the price is expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. - Regarding manganese silicon and silicon iron, the fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, and potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and both are likely to follow the black - sector market [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persists, and the demand support is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is limited [13][16]. - In the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and future attention should be paid to downstream orders and capacity changes. For soda ash, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [19][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Conditions - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3037 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.429%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 118,534 tons, with no change. The main - contract open interest decreased by 11,428 lots to 2.020353 million lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3256 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.092%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 889 tons to 99,412 tons. The main - contract open interest decreased by 7743 lots to 1.365348 million lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged at 3270 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined significantly, and the inventory showed reverse - seasonal accumulation. The steel demand has entered the off - season, and the risk of hot - rolled coil inventory still exists. Future attention should be paid to the production - cut rhythm. With the improvement of the macro - environment, the demand may recover in the future [2]. Iron Ore Market Conditions - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 777.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.19% (+1.50). The open interest decreased by 7164 lots to 537,500 lots. The weighted open interest was 937,000 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 57.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.83% [4]. Strategy Views - The overseas iron - ore shipment volume decreased, but it was still at a high level in the same period. The demand for iron ore weakened, and the port inventory and steel - mill inventory increased. Affected by environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel - mill profits, the iron - ore demand continued to weaken, and the price was expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Conditions - On November 6, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 0.38% at 5798 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed up 0.47% at 5586 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 14 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon were not ideal, and potential drivers might come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals had no obvious contradictions, and both were likely to follow the black - sector market [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9065 yuan/ton, up 0.50% (+45). The open interest increased by 1917 lots to 400,305 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China remained unchanged at 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 235 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 remained unchanged at 9700 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 165 yuan/ton [12]. - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 53,395 yuan/ton, up 0.07% (+40). The open interest decreased by 4850 lots to 225,552 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of - 1195 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persisted, and the demand support was weakening. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern might improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range was limited [13][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Conditions - The glass main contract closed at 1101 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 0.36% (+4). The price of large - size glass in North China remained unchanged at 1130 yuan, and the price in Central China increased by 20 yuan to 1140 yuan. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 2.654 million boxes (-4.03%) to 63.136 million boxes. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9576 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 10,400 lots [18]. - The soda - ash main contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 1.00% (+12). The price of heavy - ash in Shahe increased by 12 yuan to 1157 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises increased by 12,200 tons to 1.7142 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 5605 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 22,126 lots [20]. Strategy Views - In the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and future attention should be paid to downstream orders and capacity changes. For soda ash, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [19][21].