Core Viewpoint - The global nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied until 2030, driven by a surge in supply from Indonesia and other major producers [1][2] Supply Dynamics - Indonesia's nickel production has increased from 30% of global supply five years ago to 70% currently, with no signs of slowing down [1] - Macquarie forecasts that Indonesia's nickel supply will grow by approximately 16% this year and next, extending into non-nickel pig iron products [1] - Indonesia's nickel production is projected to reach 2.4 to 2.5 million tons this year, with potential capacity increasing to 4 million tons by 2030 [1] - The government of Indonesia is tightening regulations on nickel mining, reviewing environmental permits, and has already seized some mining assets [1][2] Market Conditions - Despite a reduction of 500,000 tons in nickel supply from other regions since 2022, global supply is still expected to grow [2] - Nickel prices have fallen to a low point, with the London Metal Exchange price hitting $15,000 per ton, and many industry players facing negative cash flow at this price [2] - The demand for nickel is shifting towards traditional stainless steel applications as battery usage slows down [2][3] Demand Insights - The stainless steel industry accounts for approximately 65% of nickel demand, showing strong growth due to cheaper nickel prices [4] - In Europe and North America, the impact on the global primary nickel market is limited, with their share being less than 10% [4] - About 55%-60% of nickel production in Europe and North America uses recycled materials, compared to only 15% in China and Indonesia [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The intraday decline of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel was mainly affected by the broader market, and the fundamental logic temporarily failed. The quota for nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to decline in 2026, while the new energy sector is entering a peak season with strong downstream demand. Nickel iron prices lack upward momentum, and stainless steel may be weak due to profit pressure and weak demand. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and macro - level attention should be paid to the subsequent development of Sino - US tariffs [3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai Nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.78% and a historical percentile of 2.1% [2]. Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory management**: When facing product price decline and inventory impairment risk, sell Shanghai Nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio, both with a strategy grade of 2 [2]. - **Procurement management**: When worried about raw material price increases, buy far - month Shanghai Nickel contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), with strategy grades of 3, 1, and 3 respectively [2]. Stainless Steel - **Inventory management**: When facing product price decline and inventory impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio, both with a strategy grade of 2 [3]. - **Procurement management**: When worried about raw material price increases, buy far - month stainless steel contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), with strategy grades of 3, 1, and 3 respectively [3]. Market Analysis Core Contradictions - Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel declined due to the broader market. Nickel ore quota in Indonesia may decrease in 2026. The new energy sector is in a peak season with high demand. Nickel iron prices are weak, and stainless steel has profit and demand issues. There are export利好 factors for stainless steel, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariffs [3]. Positive Factors - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period, changes in mining area management, progress in nickel smelting projects, favorable WTO rulings, and extension of Indian BIS certification exemption [5]. Negative Factors - High pure nickel inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, and weak stainless steel demand [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - **Nickel**: The prices of Shanghai Nickel main contract and related contracts, as well as LME nickel 3M, all declined, with trading volume and open interest also decreasing, while the position of warehouse receipts increased slightly [5]. - **Stainless steel**: The prices of stainless steel contracts declined, but trading volume and open interest increased significantly, and the position of warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6]. Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 43,694 tons, an increase of 2,866 tons; LME nickel inventory is 242,094 tons, an increase of 4,716 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 905.6 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,236 tons, an increase of 584 tons [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian government has suspended 190 mining licenses, impacting coal, nickel, gold, and tin operations, but the effect on Chinese companies' production and the nickel market is limited [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of License Suspension - The suspended mining licenses account for approximately 4% of Indonesia's total valid mining licenses, with coal and nickel projects being the most affected [2]. - Over 75 coal projects and 25 nickel projects are impacted, potentially weakening foreign trade and energy supply stability [2]. - The actual production disturbance from the policy is minimal, and the marginal impact on nickel prices is limited [2][3]. Group 2: Compliance and Environmental Responsibility - The suspension of mining licenses is based on existing regulations rather than new legislation, reflecting a heightened focus on compliance and environmental responsibility under President Prabowo Subianto's leadership [4]. - The government aims to balance economic development with environmental protection, emphasizing stricter resource governance and the importance of environmental considerations in mining operations [4]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Companies are advised to conduct comprehensive due diligence before entering the Indonesian mining sector, given the complex regulatory environment and potential operational risks [6]. - Proactive compliance management is essential for navigating Indonesia's regulatory landscape, including investments in recovery technologies and regular engagement with stakeholders [6][7]. - Successful mining investment in Indonesia requires precise identification of project compliance, careful structuring of transactions, and a thorough understanding of the approval process [7]. Group 4: Local Perception and Community Engagement - Despite the expansion of Chinese investment in Indonesia's mining sector contributing to GDP growth, local communities may not perceive significant benefits, leading to potential social tensions [5]. - Companies are encouraged to enhance their ESG capabilities and improve local employment and community investment to bridge the gap between macroeconomic contributions and local perceptions [5].

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Fed officials have significant differences on interest - rate cuts. Some believe the September cut was unnecessary, and the government shutdown makes economic assessment more difficult [6]. - Stock index futures are expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish bias, but investors should avoid over - aggressiveness. There are factors both favorable and unfavorable to the market [7][8]. - Copper supply disruptions are likely to push up prices due to events like the Indonesian mine accident and supply - side policy adjustments [10]. Summary by Directory Fed Interest - Rate Cut Situation - The Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Most participants emphasized inflation risks, and there were differences on the number of future cuts. The government shutdown has led to data delays, complicating economic assessment [6]. Stock Index Futures - Maintain a moderately bullish view on stock index futures, but avoid over - aggressiveness. The holiday situation is conducive to the continuation of the bullish market, but regulatory risks and the upcoming earnings season should be noted [7][8]. Copper - Supply disruptions, such as the Indonesian Grasberg mine accident, will reduce copper supply. The industry association advocates controlling smelting capacity expansion, and the market expects increased copper demand from AI, which may push up copper prices [10][21][23]. Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, while silver will experience oscillatory adjustments [12][16]. - **Base Metals**: Each base metal has different trends, such as zinc having support, lead lacking drivers, and tin oscillating within a range [12][24][27]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different energy and chemical products have various trends, including some expected to open high and then fall, and others to oscillate or be weak [12][15]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products also show different trends, such as some oscillating weakly and others being slightly bullish [12][15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and attention should be paid to news disturbances [1]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between short - term supply - demand and cost, and steel prices will fluctuate [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,900, down 200 from T - 1; the trading volume was 127,190, up 29,433 from T - 1 [1]. - For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,730, down 30 from T - 1; the trading volume was 224,083, down 51,373 from T - 1 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,650, up 450 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 954, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,100, unchanged from T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,260, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesian Policy**: - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supply [1]. - The Indonesian government requires mining companies to resubmit the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [4]. - The Indonesian government will punish illegal mining, with reports of 1063 illegal mines [4]. - **Production Changes**: - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, affecting about 1900 metal tons of nickel - iron production per month [2][4]. - A Shandong steel mill started maintenance due to a 5% annual production reduction target, suspending long - term supply agreements for hot - rolled coil [4]. - The Indonesian forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mine of PT WedaBav Nickel, affecting about 600 metal tons of nickel ore production per month [5]. - The Indonesian government sanctioned 190 mining companies for not providing claim and refund guarantees [6]. - **Other News**: - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is +1, and that of stainless steel is +1, indicating a relatively strong trend for both [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the long - short contradictions in the nickel market are in balance, and nickel prices may continue to fluctuate within a range. However, if the contradictions on either side intensify in the fourth quarter, it will further increase the volatility of Shanghai nickel. For stainless steel, short - term steel prices lack upward drivers but do not have the basis for a sharp decline, and the long - term strategy of buying on dips has better cost - effectiveness [1][2]. Summary According to Related Contents Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: Indonesian nickel mine contradictions have increased market concerns, while the steep accumulation of refined nickel inventory and weak expectations have put pressure on prices. The takeover of part of the Weda Bay Nickel mine and the suspension of 190 mining companies in Indonesia may affect the supply. However, the global refined nickel inventory has increased steeply, and the market expects a slowdown in implicit restocking. The nickel surplus is mainly in the pure nickel segment, showing a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 959 tons to 40,440 tons, with a decrease in warehouse receipt and spot inventory and unchanged bonded area inventory. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,680 tons to 230,124 tons [4]. - **Market News**: There are multiple pieces of news related to Indonesia, including plans to shorten mining quota periods, government - approved RKAB production, suspension of some nickel - iron production lines due to losses, requirements for resubmitting 2026 RKAB, and crackdowns on illegal mining. Also, China has suspended a non - official subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia [5][7][8]. Stainless Steel Market - **Fundamentals**: The short - term supply - demand logic and long - term "cost - performance trading" are in a game, and steel prices currently lack a clear trend. The demand side is suppressed by tariff pressure and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, while the supply side has seen an expected increase in production after valuation repair [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of September 25, SMM stainless steel factory inventory was 1.549 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%; SMM stainless steel social inventory was 0.909 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 1%; the total social inventory of stainless steel monitored by Steel Union was 0.984 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3% and a month - on - month decrease of 0% [4]. - **Market News**: There are news such as a steel mill in Shandong reducing production due to capacity limitations and an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspending part of its production lines [5][6]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,380, down 1,610; the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,840, down 90. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 163,560, down 13,470; the trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 262,187, up 81,878 [9]. - **Industry Chain**: Data on 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium and discount, nickel bean premium and discount, and other indicators are provided, as well as data on the stainless steel and nickel - related industry chain such as high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread, and nickel plate import profit [9].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets showed a strong and volatile trend. The nickel ore supply was unstable due to sanctions on mining companies in Indonesia and the approaching quota approval in October. The cobalt price was expected to rise, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The nickel iron price decreased due to stainless - steel demand constraints, and the stainless - steel market was also strong but with weak spot trading. The decline of the US dollar in the macro - level led to an upward movement in the non - ferrous metals market [3] - There were both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors included the proposed revision of the HPM formula in Indonesia, the shortening of the nickel ore quota period, continuous de - stocking of stainless steel, and the takeover of some nickel - producing areas. Negative factors included high pure nickel inventory, tariff disturbances, and weak stainless - steel spot trading [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel was 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The predicted price range of stainless steel was 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.95% and a historical percentile of 0.3% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Market Data Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 122,990 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 | 122,990 | 1,540 | 1.27% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 | 123,160 | 1,530 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 | 123,350 | 1,460 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,240 | - 195 | - 1.20% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 177,030 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 99,642 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 25,153 | 48 | 0.19% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | - 505 | 185 | - 26.8% | yuan/ton | [5] Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 12,930 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 1 | 12,930 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 2 | 12,970 | 30 | 0.23% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 3 | 13,030 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 129,897 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 109,896 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 87,505 | - 298 | - 0.34% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | 640 | - 35 | - 5.19% | yuan/ton | [5] Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel | 41,484 tons | + 429 tons | | LME Nickel Inventory | 230,586 tons | 0 tons | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 909 tons | + 11.8 tons | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 28,652 tons | - 614.5 tons | [6] Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: The Indonesian APNI planned to revise the HPM formula, the nickel ore quota period was shortened from three years to one year, stainless steel had been de - stocking for several weeks, and the Indonesian forestry working group took over part of the nickel - producing area of PT Weda Bay [5] - **Negative Factors**: The pure nickel inventory was high, there were still tariff disturbances between China and the US, the EU stainless - steel import tariff was uncertain, the anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates in South Korea was implemented, and the stainless - steel spot trading was weak [5]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the nickel and stainless steel industries, analyzing their fundamentals, inventory changes, and market news [1][2]. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Nickel Market**: The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel show that the resonance of real - world inventory accumulation and weak expectations suppresses prices, and the Indonesian nickel mine issue increases short - selling risks. The surplus in nickel is mainly in the ferronickel segment, with a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. The expected commissioning of pure nickel in the second half of the year puts pressure on prices, but the substitution of nickel plates with ferronickel in the alloy sector has increased. The marginal improvement in non - standard nickel fundamentals shows some de - stocking, but there is still a need for more pure nickel to be re - allocated or cleared to resolve the inventory accumulation contradiction. Indonesian news may significantly weaken short - sellers' confidence [1]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: There is a game between short - term supply - demand logic and long - term "cost - performance trading", and steel prices are oscillating. Short - term supply and demand lack drivers. The demand side has issues such as tariff contradictions and weak post - production - cycle consumption, and the supply side has adjusted production. Although the supply - demand mismatch has slightly eased, supply elasticity may limit the upside space. The cost - profit situation also restricts the downside space [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals 3.1.1 Nickel Fundamentals - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia, which may marginally weaken the import demand. The global refined nickel's visible inventory has returned to an increasing trend, with a weekly increase of 9,810 tons to 264,382 tons, and the market's expectation of implicit restocking has slowed down. The surplus in nickel is concentrated in the ferronickel segment, with a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. The expected commissioning of pure nickel in the second half of the year puts pressure on prices, but the substitution of nickel plates with ferronickel in the alloy sector has increased, and the inventory accumulation trend may suppress nickel prices. The marginal improvement in non - standard nickel fundamentals shows some de - stocking, but more pure nickel needs to be re - allocated or cleared to resolve the inventory accumulation contradiction. Indonesian news may significantly weaken short - sellers' confidence, as over 148 hectares of a nickel mine in Indonesia have been taken over, affecting the monthly nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons. There are also other potential risks in Indonesia, such as the government's requirement for enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget in October 2025, which may limit the decline in nickel ore premiums [1]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel Fundamentals - Short - term supply and demand lack drivers. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of demand has significantly converged compared to previous years, with the apparent demand growth rate dropping to 2.0%. The supply side experienced a "de - valuation - de - production" phase from June to July, and the year - on - year supply growth rate has also significantly converged, with the cumulative year - on - year growth rate falling to 2.4%. The reduction in production by an Indonesian steel mill has led to a 27% decline in imports, and the supply - demand mismatch has slightly eased, with the inventory centers of factories and society both decreasing. However, supply elasticity may limit the upside space, as production increased in August and is expected to continue to increase in September, with a 6% month - on - month increase to 3.45 million tons in September, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate is expected to recover to 3.2%. The 300 - series reaches 1.81 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year/ month - on - month increase of 4.8%/5.2%. Since the absolute inventory levels of the upstream and mid - stream in the real - world have not been digested to a neutral or low level, if the valuation is high, it may lead to expectations of supply elasticity release, and downstream procurement is cautious. In the short - term cost and profit segment, after the marginal return to the fundamental logic, combined with the de - stocking and valuation repair in the ferronickel segment and the increase in the chromium iron tender procurement price, steel mill profits have been squeezed, and the cash profits of non - leading steel mills from warehouse delivery have basically converged, so the cost - support logic also limits the imagination of the downside space [2]. 3.2 Inventory Changes - **Nickel Inventory**: China's social nickel inventory increased by 144 tons to 39,298 tons, including an increase of 1,851 tons in warehouse receipt inventory to 23,529 tons, a decrease of 737 tons in spot inventory to 11,679 tons, and a decrease of 970 tons in bonded area inventory to 4,090 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 9,666 tons to 225,084 tons [3]. - **Ferronickel Inventory**: On September 15, the SMM ferronickel inventory was 28,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14% and a year - on - year increase of 26%. The inventory pressure is high, but it is continuously easing on the margin [5]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On September 18, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,082 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.51%. Among them, the total inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 598,806 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%, and the total inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 388,276 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.38% [5]. - **Nickel Ore Inventory in Chinese Ports**: The nickel ore inventory in 14 Chinese ports increased by 139,500 wet tons to 14.0011 million wet tons, including 13.4823 million wet tons of Philippine nickel ore. Classified by nickel ore grade, there are 8.1456 million wet tons of low - nickel high - iron ore and 5.8555 million wet tons of medium - and high - grade nickel ore [5]. 3.3 Market News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies. The government - approved 2025 RKAB production is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [6]. - Two nickel - iron smelting industrial parks in Indonesia have suspended all EF production lines due to long - term production losses, and the shutdown is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [6]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources department requires mining and coal - mining companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [7]. - A steel mill in Shandong has started maintenance due to capacity limitations, with an annual production reduction target of 5%, and has temporarily suspended the delivery obligations under long - term supply agreements signed in August [7]. - The Indonesian president stated that illegal mining will be severely punished, and reports of 1,063 illegal mines have been received. The Indonesian forestry working group has taken over more than 148 hectares of a nickel mine in PT Weda Bay Nickel, accounting for 0.3% of the total mine area, and it is expected to affect the monthly nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons [8]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia [1][8].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250918: Rate Cut Implemented, Upward Drive Insufficient [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - On September 17, 2025, Shanghai nickel futures' closing prices declined, with the active contract's closing price at 121,790 yuan/ton (-820), trading volume at 90,734 lots (-13,858), and open interest at 58,829 lots (-7,709) [2] - LME 3 - month nickel's closing price was $15,250 (-165), trading volume was 6,290 lots ( + 1,202), and the price ratio of Shanghai - LME nickel futures was 7.89 (-0.05) [2] Stainless Steel Futures - On September 17, 2025, Shanghai stainless steel futures' closing prices were mostly down, with the active contract's closing price at 12,840 yuan/ton (-12), trading volume at 170,126 lots (-60,650), and open interest at 127,750 lots (-3,036) [2] Spot Market - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel's average price was 122,800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 990 yuan/ton compared to the active futures contract [2] - The average price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) was 13,850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 915 yuan/ton compared to the active futures contract [2] Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory decreased by 26 tons to 26,167 tons; LME nickel inventory increased by 2,034 tons to 228,468 tons [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory decreased by 480 tons to 95,265 tons [2] Group 3: Industry News - Nickel 28 Capital Corp's Q2 2025 production report showed that the Ramu nickel - cobalt project in Papua New Guinea produced 8,564 tons of MHP nickel metal ( + 22.87% YoY) and 787 tons of cobalt metal, with MHP nickel sales volume at 7,846 tons ( + 27.93% YoY) and cobalt sales volume at 719 tons [2] Group 4: Market Analysis Nickel Market - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and port inventories increased; nickel - iron mills' losses narrowed, September's domestic production schedule increased, Indonesian production increased, and nickel - iron inventory decreased; September's domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits expanded [2] - **Demand**: Ternary production decreased; stainless steel mills' production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2] - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory increased, social inventory increased, and bonded area inventory decreased [2] - **Outlook**: After the Fed's rate cut, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] Stainless Steel Market - **Supply**: September's stainless steel production schedule increased [2] - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [2] - **Cost**: High - nickel pig iron prices and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat [2] - **Outlook**: Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [2] Group 5: Trading Strategies - For nickel, the strategy is to short on rallies [2] - For stainless steel, the suggestion is to wait and see [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [2] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel futures markets showed weak intraday oscillations, with the overall non - ferrous metals market relatively soft and no significant changes in the fundamentals [4]. - There are still supports in the new energy sector. The nickel salt supply is tight, and price increases are frequent, expected to remain strong. The nickel - iron price is firm, but high - price transactions have declined [4]. - The stainless steel futures price once fell below 12,900, and the spot market offered discounts. There was some improvement in transactions, but the fundamental momentum is currently calming down, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - level trends [4]. - Although the takeover of a small part of the PT Weda Bay nickel mine has limited impact on actual production, it has raised concerns about the nickel ore supply [4][6]. - The news of Antam and CATL promoting the construction of an integrated nickel smelter in Indonesia supports the long - term demand for nickel in the new energy field [6] Key Points by Category Price Forecast - The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.61% and a historical percentile of 1.1% [3] Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory depreciation, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory depreciation, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [4] Market Data Nickel Futures - The closing price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 121,990 yuan/ton, down 0.67% [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 122,180 yuan/ton, down 0.63% [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 122,370 yuan/ton, down 0.63% [8]. - The LME nickel 3M price is 15,445 US dollars/ton, down 0.63% [8] Stainless Steel Futures - The closing price of stainless steel main - continuous contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - one contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - two contract is 12,985 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - three contract is 13,060 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [11] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 41,055 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons [12]. - LME nickel inventory is 228,468 tons, an increase of 2,034 tons [12]. - Stainless steel social inventory is 902,600 tons, a decrease of 16,100 tons [13]. - Nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons [13] News and Event Analysis Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula by adding elements such as iron and cobalt [7]. - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [7]. - Stainless steel inventories have decreased for several consecutive weeks [7]. - The takeover of part of the PT Weda Bay nickel mine by the Indonesian forestry working group [7]. - CATL and Antam promote the construction of an integrated nickel smelter in Indonesia [7][6] Negative Factors - High pure nickel inventories [7]. - Sino - US tariff disturbances [7]. - Uncertainty in the EU's stainless steel import tariffs has increased [7]. - South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel thick plates has been implemented [7]. - Relatively weak stainless steel spot transactions [7]