数据来源：Wind，中粮期货研究院整理 盈利能力 2025Q2样本上市公司净利润也较Q1有所增长，2025年Q2样本企业合计实现净利润107.71亿元，环比增 长6.17%，同比增长9.21%。2025年Q2育肥料平均出厂价3101元/吨，环比下降3.28%。尽管Q2的猪价较 Q1有所下滑，但上市公司整体的净利润仍然维持了正增长，2025年Q2猪价的下滑幅度基本与饲料价格 的下滑幅度持平，利润的增长主要反映了企业生产成绩的提升。从个体企业来看，21家样本企业仅有2 家养殖利润为负，整体反映Q2行业的普遍盈利情况很好，头部企业头均利润超过300元/头。费用控制方 面，2025Q2四项费用率为7.58%，较Q1下降0.99%，为2018年以来历史新低，集团企业费用控制能力继 续增强。从个体企业来看，费用率最低的企业大约在5%左右，费用率较高的企业接近20%，头部企业 费用率大约在7%左右。盈利指标方面，2025年Q2销售毛利率和ROE分别为12.61%和3.85%，较Q1分别 下降0.54%和增长0.16%，销售利润率整体仍然维持近年来较好水平，ROE稍有改善，但受制于传统重 资产经营的特点，整体水平仍然不高。 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 0% and the expected -0.2%[6] - Food prices dragged down CPI significantly, with food item CPI at -4.3%, impacting overall CPI by approximately 0.72 percentage points[6] - Pork prices fell by 16.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 0.24 percentage point decline in August CPI[6] Group 2: PPI Insights - August PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, a reduction of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous value[11] - The decline in PPI is primarily due to the recovery in raw material prices like steel and coal, influenced by the "anti-involution" measures[11] - To achieve a positive PPI year-on-year by year-end, the average month-on-month growth from September to December must exceed 0.53%, which poses a challenge[18] Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term CPI pressures are expected to persist, but a rebound is anticipated in Q4 due to stable prices of pork and fresh produce[10] - The "anti-involution" measures in the pig farming industry are expected to lead to a moderate recovery in pork prices in Q4, potentially supporting CPI growth[10] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policies and unexpected changes in overseas policies and geopolitical situations[21]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will hold a meeting on September 16 to discuss the current situation of pig production and measures for capacity regulation among 25 pig farming enterprises [1] - Since late May, there have been frequent policies regarding capacity regulation in the pig farming industry, including a reduction of 1 million breeding sows to a target of 39.5 million [2] - The average slaughter weight of pigs has been steadily decreasing, with a decline of 3.65% as of the first week of September [2] - The current pig prices are low, with August's average price below 14 yuan/kg and recent prices in Guangxi dropping to under 12.5 yuan/kg [3] Summary by Sections Policy and Regulation - The government has implemented strict measures to control the breeding sow population and reduce the weight of pigs for slaughter [2] - Major enterprises like Muyuan Foods have committed to reducing their breeding sow population, with a planned reduction of 3.82% by the end of the year [2] Market Dynamics - The breeding sow population is currently at 40.42 million, slightly above the normal level, indicating potential for further reductions [3] - The pig price is expected to rise in the future due to a combination of active and passive capacity reductions, improving the supply-demand balance [3] Investment Opportunities - The pig farming sector is currently undervalued, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Lihua Stock, which is expected to benefit from rising chicken prices and a growing pig farming business [6] - The company plans to achieve a pig output of over 1 million heads in 2024, with a projected increase to 2 million heads in 2025 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in A-shares is primarily driven by the surge in technology stocks and expectations of interest rate cuts, creating a positive market atmosphere [1][2]. Group 1: Technology Sector - The computing hardware sector experienced a strong rally, influenced by Oracle's announcement of a five-year, $300 billion computing power procurement contract with OpenAI, leading to a 36% surge in Oracle's stock price and a market capitalization increase of approximately $250 billion [3]. - The latest report from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology predicts that China's overall intelligent computing power will reach 1,037.3 EFLOPS by 2025, with continued rapid growth expected, potentially reaching 2,781.9 EFLOPS by 2028 [3]. Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need for enterprises to actively promote technological innovation and increase investments, which is expected to enhance the semiconductor industry's long-term growth prospects due to the increasing demand for artificial intelligence applications and domestic production [4]. Group 3: Financial Sector - The financial sector is showing active performance, supported by national policies focused on stabilizing the economy and stock market, with expectations of increased capital inflows positively impacting the industry's fundamentals [5]. Group 4: Agriculture Sector - The pork sector is performing well, with an upcoming seminar organized by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs to discuss adjustments in pig production capacity, which is anticipated to boost pork prices [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to fluctuate [6] - **Protein Meal**: Expected to fluctuate [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Expected to fluctuate [8] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate [11] - **Cotton**: Expected to fluctuate in the short - term [12] - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the long - term, and run in the 5500 - 5750 range in the short - term [14] - **Pulp**: Expected to fluctuate [15] - **Double - Glue Paper**: Expected to fluctuate [16] - **Logs**: Expected to stop falling and stabilize [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by the relatively bearish MPOB report, the market sentiment is weak, and it may continue to adjust. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [6]. - **Protein Meal**: The market has both long and short factors, and the market will continue to fluctuate narrowly. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the fourth quarter. There is a short - term tight supply, and a short - term long - term long pattern is expected [7]. - **Hogs**: The expectation of "anti - involution" boosts the market. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the cycle is still under supply pressure. In the long - term, if the capacity - reduction policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will be gradually weakened. Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: After the decline, it stabilizes, and there will still be fluctuations in the short - term. The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It returns to the fluctuating trend. The short - term price of butadiene is expected to rise slightly, and the market may fluctuate strongly [11]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuates within the range. Try short - term long positions when the price reaches the lower limit of the range [12]. - **Sugar**: In the long - term, the sugar price has a downward driving force due to the expected supply surplus in the new season. In the short - term, it runs in the 5500 - 5750 range, and pay attention to the support at 5500 [14]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures fluctuate sharply with the listing of double - glue paper. It is expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Double - Glue Paper**: The fundamentals are weak, but the listing price is neutral to low. Consider range operation between 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to the limited expected decline in US soybean yield per unit, combined with the impact of oil - meal arbitrage, US soybeans and soybean oil fell on Tuesday. The MPOB report is bearish, and domestic oils and fats fluctuated and fell yesterday. The US soybean is affected by drought, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may peak. The MPOB report on palm oil is bearish, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly falling but still high year - on - year [6]. - **Outlook**: Affected by the bearish MPOB report, the market sentiment is weak and may continue to adjust [6]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the Fed's rate cut in September is almost certain. There are factors such as the possible occurrence of La Nina and the expected increase in Brazil's soybean exports. Domestically, the state reserve plans to sell 22,500 tons of imported soybeans, and the soybean import volume is large. The demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [6]. - **Outlook**: Both domestic and international markets will continue to fluctuate within the range. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The supply is short - term tight, and the demand has a phased increase. With the approaching of the new grain listing, the selling pressure will gradually appear in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Outlook**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies when the new grain is concentratedly listed. Consider reverse arbitrage [7]. 3.4 Hogs - **Logic**: The Ministry of Agriculture plans to hold a symposium on hog production capacity regulation enterprises on September 16. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. In the long - term, the "anti - involution" policy may drive the price to strengthen in 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot price is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Logic**: The rubber market stabilizes after a sharp decline. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and there are many speculative themes. The supply increase may be postponed, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm recovers after the price decline [9]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR market stabilizes after a large decline and returns to the fluctuating trend. It follows the natural rubber market, and the cost of raw material butadiene provides support. The supply and demand fundamentals support the market to fluctuate in a narrow range [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price of butadiene may rise slightly, and the market may fluctuate strongly [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The domestic cotton market has low inventory and marginal improvement in demand. The new cotton commercial inventory is tight, and the demand is improving but the upward driving force is insufficient. Wait for the new cotton purchase price to give direction [12]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate in the short - term. Try short - term long positions when the price reaches the lower limit of the range [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: In the new season, although the drought in Brazil reduces the sugarcane yield, the sugar production is expected to increase due to the high sugar - making ratio. The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to increase. The domestic supply marginally increases, and the sugar price has a downward driving force [14]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the sugar price may decline. In the short - term, it runs in the 5500 - 5750 range, and pay attention to the support at 5500 [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures fluctuate sharply with the listing of double - glue paper. The supply and demand change little, and it may be due to emotional speculation. The needle - broadleaf pattern is differentiated, and the price may continue to decline [15]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [15]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Logic**: The fundamentals are bearish, with over - supply in the industry, declining demand, and high inventory. The listing price is neutral to low, and consider range operation between 4000 - 4500. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage in the early stage of listing [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are weak, but the listing price is neutral to low. Consider range operation [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Logic**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19]. - **Outlook**: The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [19].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rally on September 11, with major indices collectively surging, particularly the ChiNext Index which rose over 4% to surpass 3000 points, marking a new high since January 2022 [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.63%, and the STAR Market 50 Index by 5.34%, with a total trading volume of 1.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Leading sectors included CPO, PCB, liquid cooling servers, and semiconductor chips, indicating a continued upward trend in technology stocks [2] - Oracle's announcement of a 359% year-on-year increase in its Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) to $455 billion has positively influenced the market, with Oracle's stock soaring 36% and reaching a market capitalization of $922.2 billion [2] - The AI industry chain, particularly in computing power hardware, is expected to benefit from ongoing developments, with a projected growth of China's AI market to 815.9 billion yuan by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 33% [5] Investment Insights - BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for the Middle East and Asia expressed a neutral overall view on the Chinese stock market but highlighted a strong preference for Chinese technology stocks due to significant valuation gaps compared to global peers, particularly in AI-driven growth [3] - Analysts noted that the semiconductor and domestic substitution sectors are showing strong performance, with companies like TSMC reporting a 34% year-on-year sales increase in August, indicating robust demand for advanced AI chips [7] Future Outlook - Analysts from Shenwan Hongyuan emphasized that the underlying bullish logic in the market remains unchanged, with a focus on Hong Kong stocks and the AI sector as key investment themes [4][9] - Citic Securities highlighted the potential for innovation cycles in Apple hardware from 2025 to 2027, suggesting a focus on companies with strong ties to Apple's business and emerging fields like foldable screens and AI servers [11]

Group 1 - The pig farming sector stocks experienced a collective surge, with the Livestock ETF (516760) rising by 2.13% [1] - Key stocks such as Lihua Co. (300761) increased by 12.29%, Muyuan Foods (002714) by 6.56%, and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) by 6.13% [1] - A meeting on September 16 will be held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission to discuss pig production capacity regulation, involving 25 companies including Muyuan and Wens [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities noted that after a period of adjustment, the valuations of pig farming companies are at a bottom range, with leading firms still achieving good profitability [1] - The report anticipates that if supply pressure leads to capacity reduction in the second half of the year, leading companies can leverage their cost advantages to steadily increase market share [1] - The livestock ETF closely tracks the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the livestock sector, currently showing a low PE-TTM of 14.11, indicating a historical low valuation [2]

Macro and Strategy - The fixed income investment strategy for Q4 indicates a turning point year, with expectations for a cooling economy and potential interest rate cuts [8][11] - The report highlights the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries, supported by government policies and advancements in materials and applications [17][18] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector shows resilience in mid-term performance, with the sports segment leading apparel consumption [3][11] - In September, the retail sales of clothing increased by 1.8% year-on-year, with e-commerce growth rebounding significantly [12][13] - The textile manufacturing segment reported a revenue increase of 7.8% in H1 2025, while the apparel and home textile segment faced a decline of 6.4% [15] Electric Power Equipment and New Energy - The solid-state battery industry is progressing, with significant policy support and material advancements leading to increased production and application [17][18] - Domestic energy storage system tenders surged to 47.2 GWh in August 2025, reflecting a 2158% year-on-year increase, indicating strong demand for new energy systems [18] - The electric power equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures, particularly in AI and cloud infrastructure [18][19] Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing strong performance, with a notable increase in interest in ANGPTL3-targeted therapies, particularly from multinational corporations [21][22] - The overall biopharmaceutical sector outperformed the market, with a TTM P/E ratio of 40.75x, indicating robust investor interest [20] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The securities industry reported a revenue increase of 11.37% year-on-year in H1 2025, driven by strong performance in brokerage and investment segments [22][23] - Financial investment assets have become the primary growth area for securities firms, accounting for nearly 50% of total assets [24] Social Services Industry - The education and human resources sector showed overall growth, with a revenue increase of 11% and a profit increase of 28% in H1 2025 [26][27] - The K12 education segment continues to recover, with significant demand for skills training and a shift towards quality education [28][30] Internet Industry - The AI agent market is rapidly evolving, with significant growth expected in AI infrastructure and applications, particularly in B2B and B2C sectors [31][34] - Major cloud providers are enhancing their AI capabilities, with Microsoft, Google, and Amazon leading the market [34][35] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The report recommends focusing on the meat and dairy sectors, highlighting the positive outlook for low-cost pig farming and the overall livestock cycle [36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a collective rise in A-share pork stocks, driven by upcoming regulatory measures aimed at controlling pig production capacity [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, is set to hold a meeting on September 16 to discuss pig production capacity control with 25 major companies [1] - The meeting will analyze the current pig production situation and share measures and results from pig farming enterprises regarding capacity control [1] Group 2 - Leading stocks such as Lihua Shares saw an increase of 11.86%, with a market capitalization of 19.7 billion, and a year-to-date increase of 24.49% [2] - Bangji Technology experienced a 9.99% rise, reaching a market cap of 4.816 billion, with a remarkable year-to-date increase of 185.72% [2] - Other notable performers include Tian Kang Biological, Mu Yuan Shares, and Wen's Shares, which rose over 6%, with market caps of 9.966 billion, 316.6 billion, and 132.3 billion respectively [2]

Group 1 - Zhongliang Jiajia Kang (01610) shares increased by nearly 6%, reaching HKD 1.95 with a trading volume of HKD 49.1153 million [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with the National Development and Reform Commission, plans to hold a meeting on September 16 in Beijing to discuss pig production capacity regulation, inviting 25 companies including Muyuan, Wens, and Zhongliang [1] - CICC previously indicated that the company is improving production efficiency and reducing costs in pig farming, which may enhance cost competitiveness [1] Group 2 - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the company's liquid biological assets amounted to RMB 2.79 billion, an increase of 16.9% compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The company is exploring a light-asset breeding model, which is expected to support an output of 5 to 6 million pigs in 2025 [1]