新华财经北京8月4日电（王媛媛）A股市场4日低开后震荡反弹，三大指数小幅上涨。截至收盘，沪指 报3583.31点，涨0.66%，成交6398亿元；深证成指报11041.56点，涨0.46%，成交8588亿元；创业板指 报2334.32点，涨0.50%，成交4377亿元。沪深两市全天成交额1.5万亿元，较上个交易日缩量998亿元。 板块方面，军工、贵金属、人形机器人、商业航天等板块涨幅居前，保险、影视、光伏、零食等板块跌 幅居前。 盘面热点 黑芝麻：控股股东筹划公司控制权变更事项 黑芝麻午间公告，公司于8月1日收市后收到控股股东黑五类集团的通知，黑五类集团正在筹划涉及其所 持有公司股份转让事宜，其拟将持有占公司总股本约20%的股份转让给广西壮族自治区文旅及大健康行 业的国有企业，前述股份转让事项可能导致公司控制权发生变更。公司股票自8月4日开市起停牌，预计 停牌时间不超过2个交易日。 机构观点 巨丰投顾：周一市场震荡运行，军工装备板块涨幅居前。从目前趋势看，市场整体趋势依然向上，沪指 冲破3600点后，市场分歧加剧；但不必因市场的短期震荡改变对行情趋势向好的基本判断。具体投资方 向上，可关注维持高景气度的半导体 ...

市场全天低开后震荡反弹，三大指数小幅上涨。截至收盘，沪指涨0.66%，深成指涨0.46%，创业板指涨0.5%。盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱，个股涨多跌 少，全市场超3800只个股上涨。 从板块来看，军工股再度爆发，北方长龙等20余股涨停。 机器人概念股震荡走强，浙江荣泰等涨停。 固态电池概念股表现活跃，上海洗霸涨停再创历史新高。 板块方面，军工、贵金属、人形机器人、商业航天等板块涨幅居前，保险、影视、光伏、零食等板块跌幅居前。 沪深两市全天成交额1.5万亿，较上个交易日缩量998亿。个股方面，西藏天路全天成交额69.63亿元居首，中际旭创、宁德时代、胜宏科技、新易盛的成交额 均在60亿元以上。 | 沪深A股 | | | 泸深指数 沪深板块 综合排名 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深A股 | 上证A股 深证A股 | 创业板 | 科创板 风险警示 | | | | | | | | | | 代码 | 名称 | | | - 张福 - - - 最新价 - | | | ...

板块方面，军工、贵金属、人形机器人、商业航天等板块涨幅居前，保险、影视、光伏、零食等板块跌 幅居前。 市场概况 2613 1124 788 263 230 69 119 94 126 6 37 12 13 大于 +8% 小手 -8% 涨停 -8% +4% +2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 跌停 +8% +6% 上涨 3877家 持平 230家 1312家 下跌 涨停 69家 跌停 6家 停牌 12家 凤凰网财经讯 8月4日，市场全天低开后震荡反弹，三大指数小幅上涨。截至收盘，沪指涨0.66%，深成 指涨0.46%，创业板指涨0.5%。沪深两市全天成交额1.5万亿，较上个交易日缩量998亿。 | | 沪深京重要指数 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 *● | 最新 涨跌 涨跌家数 张速% | | | | | 现手 金额 | | 上证指数 | 3583.31 | 0.66 | 23.36 | 1631/580 | 0.01 4.59 7. | 86.1万 6397.76亿 | | 深证成指 | 11041.56 | 0.4 ...

版侵表现 收评：沪指低开高走涨0.66% 军工板块20余股涨停 智通财经8月4日电，市场全天低开后震荡反弹，三大指数小幅上涨。沪深两市全天成交额1.5万亿，较上个交易日缩量998亿。盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱， 个股涨多跌少，全市场超3800只个股上涨。从板块来看，军工股再度爆发，北方长龙等20余股涨停。机器人概念股震荡走强，浙江荣泰等涨停。固态电池概 念股表现活跃，上海洗霸涨停再创历史新高。板块方面，军工、贵金属、人形机器人、商业航天等板块涨幅居前，保险、影视、光伏、零食等板块跌幅居 前。截至收盘，沪指涨0.66%，深成指涨0.46%，创业板指涨0.5%。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 创业板指 | | --- | --- | --- | | -3583.31 | -11041.56 | -2334.32 | | +23.36 +0.66% FREE | +50.24 +0.46% 1 | +11.7 +0.50% JUL | 封板 55 触及 17 昨涨停今表现 3.34% 高开率 78% 获利率 62% 封板率 76.00% ...

Group 1 - Solid-state battery concept stocks experienced significant gains, with Jinghua New Materials (603683) rising by 9.13%, reaching a historical high, and several other companies also seeing increases of over 5% [1] - SAIC Group's MG brand is set to pre-sell its new pure electric model MG4 equipped with a semi-solid-state battery on August 5, featuring a 5% electrolyte content, enhanced safety, and a range of 537 kilometers under CLTC conditions [1] - CITIC Securities believes this marks a breakthrough for solid-state batteries in downstream applications, indicating a growing demand from end customers [1] Group 2 - The solid-state battery industry is transitioning from the "technical verification stage" to the "scale-up stage," driven by industry maturity, policy guidance, and market expectations [2] - CATL announced its first clear timeline for mass production of solid-state batteries, targeting small-scale production by 2027, with commercial production expected around 2030 [2] - BYD also aims for small-scale production of solid-state batteries by 2027, with plans for large-scale deployment post-2030 [2] Group 3 - Several companies in the solid-state battery supply chain have reported advancements, with Guangdong Daoshi Technology (300409) actively developing core materials and collaborating with downstream manufacturers [3] - Yunnan Enjie New Materials has established a presence in the all-solid-state battery sector, focusing on lithium sulfide and solid electrolyte development [3] - Greeenmei (002340) has achieved small-scale production certification for its high-nickel ternary precursor materials and is advancing solid-state battery precursor materials to the shipping stage [3]

Macro Economic Insights - The US labor market is showing signs of weakness, with July non-farm employment data revealing an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations of 104,000 [3][4] - The unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, aligning with market expectations, while average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding forecasts [3][4][5] - The labor force participation rate is approximately 62.2%, indicating a decline in participation alongside a rising unemployment rate, suggesting a cooling labor market [5][6] Industry Trends - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a downturn, with PMI production dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, and new orders and export orders also declining [11][13] - The "anti-involution" trend is positively impacting commodity prices, with expectations for a rebound in July PPI [11][13] - The construction industry is facing a slowdown in infrastructure investment, while the service sector remains relatively stable, buoyed by summer travel and consumption [14] Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a self-driven investment approach, focusing on technology as a primary sector for growth [16][18] - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to drive cyclical and counter-cyclical trades, particularly in PPI recovery [19] - The TMT sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations for a rebound in semiconductor cycles and AI-driven demand [20][21] Company-Specific Insights - The industrial X-ray inspection market is poised for structural growth, driven by increasing demand in electronics and lithium battery sectors [52][53] - The first public REIT for natural gas power generation by a central enterprise has been successfully launched, indicating a positive trend for REITs in the energy sector [57][59] - The biodegradable food packaging market is projected to grow significantly, driven by increasing demand and supportive policies against plastic waste [55]

Group 1: Photovoltaics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the energy-saving inspection tasks for the polysilicon industry for 2025, aiming to reduce the burden on enterprises [1] - Silicon wafer prices continued to rise, with an average increase of approximately 0.1 yuan per piece, driven by rising raw material costs and increased downstream orders [1] - Citic Securities indicated that the photovoltaic industry is a core area for addressing issues of homogenization and overcapacity, with potential for price recovery and profit restoration as the industry returns to orderly competition [1] Group 2: Robotics - The 2025 World Robot Conference will be held in Beijing from August 8 to 12, featuring over 1,500 exhibits from more than 200 domestic and international robot companies, with nearly double the number of new products launched compared to last year [2] - Huaxi Securities noted that humanoid robots are on the verge of commercial explosion, driven by policy support, technological maturity, and increasing demand, with the global market expected to exceed $150 billion by 2035 [2] Group 3: Nuclear Fusion - Helion Energy announced the commencement of site construction for its first controllable nuclear fusion power plant, marking a significant step towards the commercialization of nuclear fusion technology [3] - Nuclear fusion is viewed as a key to achieving "energy freedom," providing a clean and virtually limitless energy source with minimal carbon emissions [3] Group 4: Brain Science - Zhejiang University unveiled the Darwin Monkey, a new generation of neuromorphic brain-like computer, featuring over 2 billion pulse neurons and a power consumption of approximately 2000 watts [4] - Brain-like computing is positioned as a frontier field at the intersection of artificial intelligence and neuroscience, with potential for commercialization in specific areas within 3-5 years [4] Group 5: Solid-State Batteries - SAIC confirmed that the new MG4 electric hatchback will be the world's first mass-produced electric vehicle equipped with a semi-solid-state battery, featuring a 70kWh battery with an energy density of 180 Wh/kg and a range of 537 kilometers [5] - The semi-solid-state battery shows improved performance in low temperatures compared to traditional lithium iron phosphate batteries [5] Group 6: Smart Factories - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a digital transformation implementation plan for the machinery industry, aiming for 50% of enterprises to achieve a maturity level of two or above by 2027 [6] - The smart factory market surpassed 1 trillion yuan in 2022, with significant penetration in automotive and electronics sectors, and is expected to expand further with the integration of AI and other new technologies [6] Group 7: Gold Market - Gold prices surged due to changes in U.S. tariff policies and disappointing employment data, with spot gold reaching $3362.64 per ounce, up 2.22% [6] - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, further enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [6] Group 8: Macro and Industry News - The People's Bank of China emphasized support for stable capital market operations and financing for technology-driven SMEs [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a digital transformation plan for the machinery industry [7] - The 2025 World Robot Expo will feature the largest number of humanoid robot manufacturers in similar events [7]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Timing System Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index to determine the market trend[2][9] - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the 20-day moving average and the 120-day moving average of the WIND All A Index - Compute the percentage difference between the two moving averages: $ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA}}{\text{120-day MA}} \times 100\% $ - If the absolute value of the distance is greater than 3% and the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average, the market is in an upward trend[2][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies upward market trends and provides actionable signals for investors[2][9] 2. Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies medium-term industry allocation opportunities by focusing on sectors with potential for recovery or growth[2][9] - **Model Construction Process**: - Analyze industry-specific factors such as valuation, growth potential, and market sentiment - Recommend sectors like "distressed reversal" industries, Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals, Hang Seng dividend low-volatility sectors, and securities for medium-term allocation[2][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides clear guidance for sector rotation and captures medium-term opportunities in specific industries[2][9] 3. Model Name: TWO BETA Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying high-growth sectors in the technology domain[2][9] - **Model Construction Process**: - Analyze beta factors related to technology sectors - Recommend sectors such as solid-state batteries, robotics, and military industries based on their growth potential and market trends[2][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing high-growth opportunities in the technology sector[2][9] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing System Model - **Key Metrics**: - Moving average distance: 6.06% (absolute value > 3%, indicating an upward trend)[2][9] - WIND All A Index trendline: 5480 points[2][9] - Profitability effect: 1.45% (positive, indicating sustained market inflows)[2][9] 2. Industry Allocation Model - **Key Metrics**: - Recommended sectors: distressed reversal industries, Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals, Hang Seng dividend low-volatility sectors, and securities[2][9] 3. TWO BETA Model - **Key Metrics**: - Recommended sectors: solid-state batteries, robotics, and military industries[2][9] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Profitability Effect - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the market's ability to generate positive returns, serving as a key indicator for market sentiment and fund inflows[2][9] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the profitability effect as a percentage value - Positive values indicate favorable market conditions for sustained fund inflows[2][9] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is a reliable indicator of market sentiment and a useful tool for timing investment decisions[2][9] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Profitability Effect - **Key Metrics**: - Profitability effect value: 1.45% (positive, indicating favorable market conditions)[2][9]

Market Review - Global equity markets experienced a general adjustment, with Hong Kong, France, Germany, and the US stock markets showing significant declines. A-shares, after five consecutive weeks of gains, faced a correction, with major indices generally declining. In terms of sectors, A-share CPO and innovative pharmaceuticals led the gains, while cyclical products like coal and non-ferrous metals saw a pullback. The domestic commodity market cooled down due to risk warnings from the three major futures exchanges and position limits on certain products, leading to sharp declines in previously strong commodities like coking coal, glass, and polysilicon. On the international front, Trump's announcement on July 30 regarding copper tariffs did not impose restrictions on copper raw materials, resulting in a significant drop in COMEX copper prices. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index plummeted after the release of non-farm payroll data on Friday, with market expectations for a rate cut in September significantly increasing [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current market correction is temporary, and the slow bull market trend remains unchanged. Following the July Politburo meeting and the new round of China-US economic and trade talks, the market's speculation on incremental policies has cooled down, and after five weeks of consecutive gains, the index requires a phase of adjustment. Looking ahead, the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has reignited, and domestic macro and micro liquidity remains relatively ample, which is conducive to the continuation of the slow bull trend in A-shares. Since the "623" market, A-shares have shown clear characteristics of "rotating upward and low-level replenishment," with better sustainability of the profit-making effect. Additionally, the sources of incremental capital in the market are diverse, with increased participation from public and private equity institutions, and the positive feedback effect of "residents allocating funds into the market and the slow rise of the stock market" is expected to strengthen [2][3]. Sector Allocation - The report recommends focusing on the following areas for sector allocation: 1) New technologies and growth directions such as AI computing power, robotics, and solid-state batteries; 2) Reallocation opportunities in dividend sectors after corrections, such as certain undervalued state-owned enterprises. Thematic areas of interest include self-controllable technologies, military industry, low-altitude economy, and marine technology [2][3].

Group 1 - The market style has entered a period of fluctuation, with diminishing marginal positive factors impacting the market [1] - Focus is shifting towards industry trends that are more certain and less affected by external disturbances [1] - The second half of the year typically sees a concentrated technology release cycle in the domestic technology sector, with increasing certainty in areas such as AI computing power, AI applications, medical exports, military, and solid-state batteries [1] Group 2 - The analysis combines market environment, catalytic factors, and comprehensive quantitative indicators to make investment recommendations [1]