本文作者为创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 上期首席视点从政府纠正市场失灵的角度提出了需要从基本面出发进行布局，其背景是预计2026年波动 加剧是市场基本的特征，本周金银铜罕见的波动验证了这一特征。过渡期的市场，周期的错位与驱动力 的转换是市场波动的主要来源，如何通过相对确定性的策略来应对市场的波动是本首席视点着重讨论的 内容。2026年市场的本质是五大周期共振下的结构重塑，波动源于周期错位，机会藏于周期协同。面对 相对高波动环境，关键在于把握政策托底、产业分化、物价回升等较为确定性的逻辑，以周期为纲、以 盈利为锚，应对波动、把握主线。 一、波澜壮阔的一周 在西方经济学和金融学占主导的金融市场，源远流长的中华文化对现代市场的前瞻性判断越来越受到投 资者的关注。2026年岁在丙午，干支为赤马红羊，过去的一周，市场波动剧烈。虽然说波动是市场的常 态，但凡事都有个度，超过了这个度，量变引起质变，节奏和趋势的边界就模糊了。在之前的首席视点 中，我们已经指出：从周期视角与市场运行规律看，波动加大将成为贯穿全年的核心特征。这并非单纯 是周期玄学在起作用，而是国内市场驱动力切换、全球秩序重构与货币政策不确定性共同作用的必然结 ...

Group 1 - Indonesia's export policy adjustment significantly reduces production quotas, reflecting a shift in the government's strategy for resource exports, including nickel and coal, aimed at controlling supply and increasing prices [1][2] - In February 2026, Indonesian mining officials announced a substantial reduction in coal production quotas by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, as part of a plan to boost coal prices [2] - Indonesia's coal production for 2025 is projected at 790 million tons, a 5% year-on-year decrease, with potential further reductions to 600 million tons in 2026, representing a 24% decline from 2025 [2] Group 2 - Global coal supply-demand balance may begin to shift in 2026, with supply contraction and rising demand, indicating a potential upward price cycle for coal [3] - Indonesia is expected to export 524 million tons of coal in 2025, a 6.1% decrease, and if production is limited to 600 million tons in 2026, exports could drop to 450 million tons, impacting global shipping trade [3] - Other countries, including Australia and Russia, are also facing production declines, contributing to a tightening global coal market [3] Group 3 - China's coal imports from Indonesia are projected to decline further in 2026, with an expected total of around 45 million tons, a decrease of approximately 4 million tons [4] - In 2025, Indonesia is expected to export 21 million tons of coal to China, a 10.6% year-on-year decrease, accounting for 42.9% of China's total coal imports [4] - Domestic coal prices in China are anticipated to recover in 2026, ending a four-year decline, supported by stable domestic supply and slightly reduced overseas imports [4] Group 4 - Companies with a clear outlook for volume and price elasticity over the next five years are recommended for investment, including Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225), China Coal Energy (601898), Jincheng Anthracite Mining (601001), and China Shenhua Energy (601088) [5] - Yancoal Australia (03668) is also recommended for investment in the Hong Kong market [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the coal industry, indicating that the overall credit quality of the industry is not expected to change significantly in the next 12 to 18 months [6]. Core Insights - Coal demand growth has significantly slowed, but it remains a cornerstone for energy security. The domestic coal production is expected to continue rising due to the release of previously constructed capacities, while coal imports are projected to decline [6][7]. - The coal price is anticipated to exhibit a "high first, low later, and then rebound" V-shaped trend throughout the year, with a stable price center expected [6][28]. - The financial performance of coal enterprises is under pressure due to rising debt levels, but their operational cash flow and refinancing capabilities remain relatively strong [6][35]. Summary by Sections Key Focus Areas - Since 2025, national coal consumption has been weak, primarily supported by the power sector. However, the continuous push for clean energy has negatively impacted thermal power demand, leading to a decline in both thermal power generation and coal consumption [7][9]. - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a downturn, further weakening coal demand in the building materials industry [7][15]. - The chemical industry has seen a slight increase in coal demand due to new coal chemical projects, but the overall consumption scale remains relatively small [7][16]. Industry Fundamentals - The coal consumption growth rate has continued to slow, with total coal consumption in China for January to November 2025 at 4.69 billion tons, unchanged from the previous year [9]. - The power sector remains the largest consumer of coal, accounting for over 50% of total coal consumption. However, traditional thermal power is facing significant pressure from clean energy sources [11][12]. - The steel industry, as the second-largest consumer of coal, has also seen a decline in coal consumption due to reduced demand from downstream sectors [14]. Financial Performance - The profitability of coal enterprises is closely tied to coal prices, which have been declining. In the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit of sample enterprises dropped by 25.65% year-on-year to 135.93 billion yuan [36]. - The average operating profit margin for sample enterprises decreased by 3.22 percentage points to 19.09% due to falling coal prices [36]. - The financial health of coal enterprises is under pressure, but the overall debt structure has improved, and the refinancing environment remains favorable [6][35]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The coal supply is expected to grow at a slower pace, with domestic production and imports both facing constraints. The overall supply-demand balance is under structural pressure, which will support the price center in the medium to long term [27][33]. - The introduction of a floating pricing mechanism for long-term contracts is expected to enhance contract compliance and stabilize market price fluctuations [28]. Price Trends - The coal price has shown a V-shaped trend, with a significant drop followed by a rebound. The average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5000) fell by 12 yuan/ton by the end of December compared to the beginning of the year [29][30]. - The pricing mechanism for coking coal varies by region, with long-term contracts generally exhibiting less volatility compared to market pricing [31]. Inventory Levels - Coal inventories remain high due to a continuous supply surplus, with total coal inventories exceeding 350 million tons [25][26]. - The high inventory levels are expected to exert downward pressure on thermal coal prices in the short term [25].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's export policy adjustment aims to significantly reduce production quotas, potentially leading to a 24% decrease in production by 2026 compared to 2025, which is intended to control supply and increase prices [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global coal supply-demand balance may begin to be disrupted in 2026, showing signs of supply contraction and rising demand [1] - In addition to Indonesia, some production capacity in Australia will exit the market, while Russian production is expected to decline naturally, and U.S. thermal coal exports may shift to domestic use [1] Group 2: Impact on China - The reduction in Indonesian production will directly lead to a continued decrease in China's import volumes, with an expected year-on-year decline in imports for 2026 [1] - Overall, the domestic average price in China is projected to end a four-year decline cycle and begin to recover in 2026, supported by stable domestic supply and a slight decrease in overseas imports, alongside a steady recovery in demand [1] Group 3: Coal ETF and Index - The coal ETF (515220) tracks the China Securities Coal Index (399998), which selects listed companies involved in coal mining and processing to reflect the overall performance of the coal industry [1] - This index focuses on upstream resource allocation while also considering small and medium-sized enterprises, combining cyclical and dividend attributes [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that high dividend strategies remain attractive in the current year, especially if EPS maintains a growth rate of over 5%, combined with a low interest rate environment, leading to considerable implied returns [1] - High dividend assets benefit from the stability of their business models and are expected to enjoy a certain valuation premium [1] - Factors driving dividend assets include changes in overall market expected returns, the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and the fundamental changes in dividend assets themselves [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Dividend State-Owned Enterprise ETF (510720) tracks the State-Owned Dividend Index (000151), which selects high dividend-capable and stable dividend record companies from the market, covering industries such as banking, coal, and transportation, focusing on traditional high dividend sectors [1] - The index employs a strict examination of constituent stocks' dividend yields and sustainability, using a cross-industry diversification strategy to effectively control investment risks and reflect the overall market performance of high dividend companies [1] - According to the fund announcement, the Guotai Dividend State-Owned Enterprise ETF has evaluated dividends monthly since its listing and has achieved continuous dividends for 22 months [1]

国内市场综述 上涨延续 走势分化 周三（2 月 4 日）大盘上涨延续，走势分化。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 4102.2 点，上涨 0.85%；深成指收 于 14156.27 点，上涨 0.21%；科创 50 下跌 1.2%；创 业板指下跌 0.4%，万得全 A 成交额共 25033 亿元，较 前一日略有下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 26 个上涨，其中煤 炭、建材及房地产涨幅居前，而传媒、通信及计算机 则跌幅较大。概念方面，央企煤炭、煤炭开采精选及 光伏玻璃等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，特斯拉跌近 4% 周三（2 月 4 日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道 指涨 0.53%，标普 500 指数跌 0.51%，纳指跌 1.51%。 万得美国科技七巨头指数跌 1.32%，特斯拉跌近 4%， 英伟达跌超 3%。芯片股表现疲软，AMD 跌超 17%。纳 斯达克中国金龙指数跌 1.95%，金山云跌超 7%。 新闻精要 风险提示 1.稳增长力度不及预期； 2.地缘冲突升级。 分析师：彭竑/钟哲元 登记编码：S1490520090001/ S1490523030001 邮箱：pengh ...

国联煤炭A（168204）基金经理为陈薪羽、杜超。 截至发稿，陈薪羽累计任职时间6年191天，现任基金资产总规模15.79亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 87.39%， 任职期间最差基金回报-19.21%。 杜超累计任职时间2年110天，现任基金资产总规模17.6亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报62.86%， 任职期 间最差基金回报-14.54%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 2月5日，山西焦煤跌5.03%，截至发稿，报6.99元/股，成交6.96亿元，换手率1.74%，总市值396.83亿 元。 资料显示，山西焦煤能源集团股份有限公司位于山西省太原市小店区长风街115号，成立日期1999年4月 26日，上市日期2000年7月26日，公司主营业务涉及煤炭的生产、洗选加工、销售及发供电,矿山开发设 计施工、矿用及电力器材生产经营等。主营业务收入构成为：煤炭57.58%，焦炭、焦油23.18%，电力 热力17.42%，其他收入 ...

赵端端累计任职时间7年136天，现任基金资产总规模24.3亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报45.74%， 任职 期间最差基金回报-0.5%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 数据显示，泓德基金旗下1只基金重仓山西焦煤。泓德睿享一年持有期混合A（009015）四季度增持 2700股，持有股数3.55万股，占基金净值比例为0.27%，位居第六大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失 约1.31万元。 泓德睿享一年持有期混合A（009015）成立日期2020年6月24日，最新规模7821.84万。今年以来收益 2.46%，同类排名5851/8873；近一年收益12.49%，同类排名6113/8119；成立以来收益46.03%。 泓德睿享一年持有期混合A（009015）基金经理为姚学康、赵端端。 截至发稿，姚学康累计任职时间4年38天，现任基金资产总规模9.33亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 26.98%， 任职期间最差基 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-02-05 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3110 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 11 元/吨（0.354%）。当日注册仓单 16931 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 179.82 万手，环比减少 6899 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘 价为 3274 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 9 元/吨（0.275%）。 当日注册仓单 199447 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合 约持仓量为 148.27 万手 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market opened lower influenced by external factors, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.66%, Shenzhen Component down 0.96%, and ChiNext down 1.02% [1] - The coal and banking sectors showed resilience, while precious metals, photovoltaic, computing hardware, and semiconductors faced declines [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The coal sector is experiencing a favorable environment due to multiple supportive policies aimed at energy security and new energy system construction, enhancing efficiency in capacity approval and project development [3] - Demand for coal is increasing due to the rapid growth in global AI computing infrastructure, with coal power being a core support for computing supply [3] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a loosening of global liquidity, which, combined with energy supply guarantees and economic recovery, supports the valuation uplift of the coal sector [3] Group 3: Restaurant Industry Outlook - The restaurant industry is at a critical turning point, with expectations for valuation recovery driven by fundamental improvements, ongoing policy support, and price mechanism restoration [2] - The sector is benefiting from a strong focus on service consumption, making it a clear beneficiary of consumption stimulus policies [2] - Continued recovery in restaurant revenue and same-store performance is anticipated from the second half of 2025 [2]