国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 钱嘉寅（联系人）期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年5月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 观点小结 上游观点汇总 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 瓶片：震荡偏弱 供需平衡表 CONTENTS 02 瓶片（PR） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 2 01 03 观点小结 01 观点总结 | 瓶片观点总结 | 短纤观点总结 | | --- | --- | | 瓶片：累库延续，多PTA空PR持有，关注多PF-PR价扩 | | | （1）高开工累库，基本面支撑不足。新装置投产进一步兑现，三房 | 短纤：需求改善预期等待现实反馈，关注多PF-PR价扩 | | 巷75万吨装置复产和新75万吨装置投产，工厂开工90.8%。工厂库存 | | | ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 117.34 million yuan for the year 2024, representing a 62.08% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Export business revenue accounted for 13.48% of total revenue in 2024 [3] Group 2: Product Development and Innovation - The company has received positive feedback on its new ultra-short imitation hemp fiber products and plans to focus on differentiated, functional, and high-end polyester fiber products in the future [1][2] - Ongoing investment in technology research and talent development is centered around technological innovation, industry chain collaboration, and market demand [2] Group 3: Customer Strategy - The company continues to implement a "key customer" strategy, providing personalized service to stabilize core customer relationships [2] Group 4: Market and Risk Management - The company is actively managing exchange rate risks, with measures in place to control the impact of currency fluctuations on export profits [3] - The company is adapting its sales strategies to different regions in response to market conditions [3] Group 5: Future Directions - The company plans to maintain a prudent operational strategy, focusing on technological innovation and development of high-end products [2][4] - There are considerations for potential industry mergers and acquisitions, evaluated against strategic goals and industry trends [4] - The company is engaged in ongoing partnerships with universities and research institutions, focusing on differentiated and high-end product development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrated stable growth in 2024 with a revenue of 67.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 billion yuan, up 1.32% year-on-year, indicating resilience in its financial performance despite challenges in demand [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 67.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 billion yuan, up 1.32% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 14.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 306 million yuan, up 11.35% year-on-year [1] - The company’s non-recurring net profit for Q1 2025 was 260 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.13% [1] Group 2: Production and Sales - In 2024, the company produced 5.18 million tons of POY, 1.52 million tons of FDY, 830 thousand tons of DTY, and 1.27 million tons of polyester short fibers, with production growth of 11% and 8% for long and short fibers respectively [1] - In Q1 2025, the production figures for POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester short fibers were 1.3 million tons, 400 thousand tons, 250 thousand tons, and 320 thousand tons, with year-on-year growth rates of 1%, 10%, 30%, and 4% respectively [1] - However, the sales volume for long fibers decreased, primarily due to end-user demand, with sales figures for Q1 2025 showing declines for POY and FDY by 10% and 17% respectively [1] Group 3: Pricing and Cost Structure - The average selling prices for major products in 2024 were 6,670 yuan/ton for POY, 7,527 yuan/ton for FDY, 8,801 yuan/ton for DTY, and 6,559 yuan/ton for polyester short fibers, with a decline in prices noted in Q1 2025 [2] - The company benefited from a decrease in raw material prices, with PTA and PX prices dropping by 15.49% and 15.67% respectively, which helped maintain profit margins despite falling product prices [2] Group 4: Capacity and Market Position - The company currently has a production capacity of 8.05 million tons for civil polyester long fibers and 1.2 million tons for polyester short fibers, ranking second in the domestic market for civil polyester long fibers [2] - The company is expected to add 400 thousand tons of new long fiber capacity in the second half of 2025, enhancing its competitive position [2] - The industry is projected to see a marginal increase in effective capacity due to the expected elimination of 200-250 thousand tons of capacity between 2024 and 2025, benefiting leading companies like the one in focus [3]

Group 1: Company Analysis - Anjiasi (688581) achieved revenue of 637 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.14%, and a net profit of 293 million yuan, up 35.06% [6] - The company reported a revenue of 129 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.27%, with a net profit of approximately 56.25 million yuan, up 6.57% [6] - Domestic revenue reached 300 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.63%, while overseas revenue was 333 million yuan, up 36.19% [7] - The company has expanded its hospital coverage to over 2,400 by the end of 2024, increasing its presence in key regions [7] - Anjiasi's overseas client base grew by 23.40% to 116 clients by the end of 2024, with significant progress in North America and Europe [7] - The company launched a stock incentive plan to enhance employee motivation, with performance targets set for 2025-2026 [8] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 310 million, 387 million, and 461 million yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [9] Group 2: Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector is experiencing a stronger impact from interest rate cuts on the funding side compared to the investment side [11] - A comprehensive reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5 percentage points is expected to release 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [13] - The anticipated reduction in interest rates for loans and deposits is expected to be gradual, with a potential cut in the loan prime rate (LPR) in May [14] - The policy measures are expected to positively impact banks' interest margins, with a more favorable outlook for 2025 compared to 2024 [15] Group 3: Food Industry Analysis - Anjixin Food (603345) reported a total revenue of 15.127 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.70%, with a net profit of 1.485 billion yuan, up 0.46% [18] - The company has 39 products generating over 100 million yuan in revenue, contributing approximately 70% of total revenue [19] - The gross margin remained stable at 23.30% in 2024, while the net margin slightly decreased to 10.01% [20] - The company plans to optimize its product strategy and maintain a "buy" rating with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [21] Group 4: Market Overview - The US Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the May FOMC meeting, indicating increased economic uncertainty [24] - The Chinese stock market showed positive trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,352 points, up 0.28% [36] - The market sentiment remains active, with a high percentage of stocks closing in the green [38]

| 套 | 年 | 气 | 装 | 启 | 该 | 装 | 前 | 停 | 车 | 陕 | 吨 | 的 | 合 | 成 | 制 | 醇 | 近 | 中 | 此 | 上 | 旬 | 检 | 修 | 装 | 信 | 息 | 置 | 重 | 置 | 月 | 置 | 西 | 1 | 0 | 日 | 于 | 万 | / | 乙 | 4 | 二 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

——公司简评报告 [table_main] 投资要点 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [桐昆股份（ Table_NewTitle] 601233）：盈利同比改善明 显，继续稳固龙头优势 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月08日 公 司 简 评 ➢ 风险提示：下游需求不及预期风险；上游能源原料价格剧烈波动；国际政策变动风险。 | [盈利预测与估值简表 Table_profits] | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 主营收入(百万元) | 61993.35 | 82639.85 | 101306.83 | 95756.72 | 106385.64 | 110795.26 | | 同比增速(%) | 4.84% | 33.30% | 22.59% | -5.48% | 11.10% | 4.14% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 130.21 | 797.04 | 1201.90 | 2364.28 | ...

Group 1 - The company expects significant growth in production and sales rates for its main products in 2024, leading to a year-on-year increase in performance [1] - The company achieved total operating revenue of 101.307 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.202 billion yuan, up 50.8% year-on-year [1] - The production and sales of polyester filament and PTA saw substantial growth in 2024, with polyester filament production reaching 12.82 million tons (up 22.41%) and sales at 12.98 million tons (up 25.46%) [1] Group 2 - The company has several projects under construction, including the Guangxi Petrochemical Polyether project, which is scheduled to be completed and put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2025 [2] - Other ongoing projects include the Fujian Henghai project, Anhui Youshun project, Hengxiang Phase II project, and Yuxin Phase II project, with the Indonesian project having completed the preliminary research report [2]

[Table_Chart] 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 -40% -20% 0% 20% 4/29 6/29 8/29 10/2912/29 2/28 新凤鸣 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：王强峰 [Table_Author] 分析师：王强峰 [Table_StockNameRptType] 新凤鸣（603225） 公司点评 产销稳步提升，PTA 项目投产一体化程度加深 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-05-05 | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | | 10.84 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | | 15.86/9.59 | | 总股本（百万股） | | 1,525 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | 1,512 | | 流通股比例（%） | | 99.15 | | 总市值（亿元） | | 165 | | 流通市值（亿元） | | 164 | 执业证书号：S0010522110002 电话：13621792701 邮箱：wangqf@hazq ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the remarkable economic transformation of Tongxiang City, emphasizing its ability to create significant industrial growth from seemingly limited resources, showcasing a unique "from nothing to something" capability [1][9][24]. Group 1: Economic Development - Tongxiang has demonstrated rapid industrial growth, with notable statistics such as the ability of Tongkun's digital brain to generate approximately 1.5 million OT data in one second and the production line of Tai Rui Machinery producing an injection molding machine in just nine minutes [1]. - The city has achieved a remarkable industrial output value of over 225.86 billion yuan in 2024, transitioning from "China's woolen sweater town" to "the world's woolen sweater capital" [7][9]. - The local economy is characterized by a high density of business ownership, with one in five residents being a business owner, contributing to the city's wealth and economic dynamism [13][24]. Group 2: Industrial Innovation - Tongxiang has established itself as a leader in the new materials industry, with significant contributions to the global wind power sector, producing one out of every three wind turbine blades [15][18]. - The city has developed a complete industrial chain in new materials, from production to processing and composite materials manufacturing, attracting numerous enterprises and fostering a collaborative industrial environment [18][23]. - The establishment of the "U Town Light" supercomputing center has positioned Tongxiang at the forefront of digital innovation, facilitating the digital transformation of traditional industries, particularly in new materials [20][21]. Group 3: Government Support and Strategic Planning - The local government has implemented strategic plans, such as the "135N industrial cluster" strategy, to cultivate the new materials industry, allocating significant funding for development [24][28]. - Tongxiang has established a supportive infrastructure, including the first "light-storage integrated" demonstration park in Zhejiang Province, ensuring sufficient energy supply for enterprises [27][29]. - Various incentive programs, such as the "Eagle Plan" for large enterprises and the "Chick Plan" for startups, provide financial support and resources to foster innovation and growth in the new materials sector [28][29]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The new materials market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.3% from 2020 to 2025, potentially reaching a market size of 5.6 trillion USD by 2025 [32]. - Tongxiang is positioned to become a key player in the new materials industry, producing 25% of the world's glass fiber and 31% of China's chemical fiber materials, indicating its potential to lead in this sector [32]. - The article concludes by emphasizing the importance of cities like Tongxiang in driving national economic growth, highlighting their role in the broader economic landscape [34][35].

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨桐昆股份（601233.SH） [Table_Title] 产销规模提升，静待景气复苏 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年年报，全年实现营业收入 1013.1 亿元（同比+22.6%），实现归属净利润 12.0 亿元（同比+50.8%），实现归属扣非净利润 9.3 亿元（同比+105.4%）。其中 Q4 单季度实现收 入 252.6 亿元（同比+20.9%，环比-9.3%），实现归属净利润 2.0 亿元（同环比均扭亏转盈）， 实现归属扣非净利润 1.1 亿元（同环比均扭亏转盈）。公司拟每股派发现金红利 0.1 元（含税）， 合计派发现金红利 2.38 亿元（含税）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 SAC：S0490516100002 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 桐昆股份（601233.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 产销规模提升，静待景气复苏 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布 202 ...