Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view presented in the given content. It mainly provides daily data on iron ore including futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, import profits, and more. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Prices - DCE01: Today's price is 808.5, up 1.0 from yesterday; DCE05 is 786.0, unchanged; DCE09 is 766.0, up 2.0 [2] - Inter - contract spreads: I01 - I05 is 22.5, up 1.0; I05 - I09 is 20.0, down 2.0; I09 - I01 is - 42.5, up 1.0 [2] Spot Prices - Various iron ore spot prices increased compared to the previous day. For example, PB powder (60.8%) rose from 780 to 786, Newman powder from 789 to 796, etc. [2] Basis - The basis of different iron ore varieties to different contracts is provided. For the optimal delivery product (Roy Hill powder), the 01 - contract basis is 34, 05 - contract basis is 55, and 09 - contract basis is 77 [2] Spot Variety Spreads - Spreads between different iron ore varieties changed. For example, the spread of Carajás fines - PB powder increased from 128 to 129 [2] Import Profits - Import profits of different iron ore varieties changed. For example, the import profit of Carajás fines decreased from 18 to 3 [2] Indexes - The Platts 62% iron ore price increased from 105.2 to 106.6, the 65% price remained unchanged at 120.8, and the 58% price increased from 93.3 to 94.6 [2] 内外盘美金价差 - The spreads between SGX and DCE contracts increased. For example, SGX main - DCE01 increased from 7.2 to 7.5 [2]

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - Domestic arrivals at 47 ports reached 27.504 million tons, a significant rebound from the low, with arrivals from Australia, Brazil, and non - Australia - Brazil regions increasing by 2.744 million tons, 0.431 million tons, and 0.406 million tons respectively. Overseas ore shipments declined from the high, with the global total at 33.248 million tons, a decrease of 2.483 million tons week - on - week, but still at a high level for the year. The decrease was mainly due to Australian ore, and the continuous decline of the three major Australian miners' shipments was questionable. Shipments from Brazil and other regions were weakly stable. According to the shipping schedule, the arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ore at domestic ports will rise and then fall, while the overall overseas ore supply will continue to increase [2]. Group 2: Ore Arrival and Shipment Data Arrival Data - Northern six ports: The arrival volume was 12.902 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.452 million tons (3.63%), a month - on - month decrease of 0.107 million tons (- 0.82%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.255 million tons (2.02%) [3]. - National 45 ports: The arrival volume was 26.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.127 million tons (13.24%), a month - on - month increase of 1.49 million tons (5.90%), and a year - on - year increase of 3.331 million tons (14.22%) [3]. - National 47 ports: The arrival volume was 27.504 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.581 million tons (14.97%), a month - on - month increase of 1.054 million tons (3.98%), and a year - on - year increase of 2.273 million tons (9.01%) [3]. - National 47 ports - Australian ore: The arrival volume was 17.945 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.744 million tons (18.05%), a month - on - month increase of 2.857 million tons (18.94%), and a year - on - year increase of 1.089 million tons (6.46%) [3]. - National 47 ports - Brazilian ore: The arrival volume was 6.136 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.431 million tons (7.55%), a month - on - month decrease of 1.004 million tons (- 14.06%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.706 million tons (13.00%) [3]. - National 47 ports - Other ore: The arrival volume was 3.423 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.406 million tons (13.46%), a month - on - month decrease of 0.799 million tons (- 18.92%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.478 million tons (16.23%) [3]. Shipment Data - Australian shipments (original caliber): The shipment volume was 16.468 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.901 million tons (- 10.35%), a month - on - month increase of 0.059 million tons (0.36%), and a year - on - year decrease of 1.152 million tons (- 6.54%) [3]. - Australian shipments to China: The shipment volume was 14.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.781 million tons (- 11.19%), a month - on - month increase of 0.337 million tons (2.44%), and a year - on - year decrease of 0.397 million tons (- 2.73%) [3]. - Brazilian shipments (original caliber): The shipment volume was 7.998 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.092 million tons (1.16%), a month - on - month decrease of 1.743 million tons (- 17.89%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.844 million tons (11.80%) [3]. - Global 19 ports: The total shipment volume was 33.248 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.483 million tons (- 6.95%), a month - on - month decrease of 2.3197 million tons (- 6.52%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.5088 million tons (1.55%) [3]. - Australian shipments in global 19 ports: The shipment volume was 19.188 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.658 million tons (- 7.95%), a month - on - month increase of 0.2421 million tons (1.28%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.2421 million tons (1.28%) [3]. - Brazilian shipments in global 19 ports: The shipment volume was 8.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.392 million tons (- 4.39%), a month - on - month decrease of 1.5355 million tons (- 15.24%), and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5355 million tons (- 15.24%) [3]. - Other shipments in global 19 ports: The shipment volume was 5.52 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.433 million tons (- 7.27%), a month - on - month decrease of 1.0263 million tons (- 15.68%), and a year - on - year decrease of 1.0263 million tons (- 15.68%) [3]. Major Miners' Shipment Data - VALE: The shipment volume was 6.896 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7839 million tons (12.82%), a month - on - month decrease of 1.1405 million tons (- 14.19%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.9848 million tons (16.66%) [3]. - RIO: The shipment volume was 6.579 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6653 million tons (- 9.18%), a month - on - month increase of 0.4688 million tons (7.67%), and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8489 million tons (- 11.43%) [3]. - RIO shipments to China: The shipment volume was 4.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.462 million tons (- 22.94%), a month - on - month increase of 0.189 million tons (4.00%), and a year - on - year decrease of 1.018 million tons (- 17.17%) [3]. - BHP: The shipment volume was 5.175 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.583 million tons (- 10.12%), a month - on - month decrease of 0.0524 million tons (- 1.00%), and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1053 million tons (- 1.99%) [3]. - BHP shipments to China: The shipment volume was 4.517 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0281 million tons (- 5.86%), a month - on - month increase of 0.043 million tons (0.96%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.197 million tons (4.56%) [3]. - FMG: The shipment volume was 3.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5228 million tons (- 11.77%), a month - on - month decrease of 0.4301 million tons (- 9.89%), and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1317 million tons (- 3.25%) [3]. - FMG shipments to China: The shipment volume was 3.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.061 million tons (- 1.53%), a month - on - month increase of 0.033 million tons (0.85%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.491 million tons (14.32%) [3]. Group 3: Related Charts - The report includes charts on domestic port arrival volumes, global iron ore shipment volumes, shipment volumes of the four major miners, and estimated domestic arrival volumes of iron ore [5][6][8][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day, with limited upward and downward space. The upper limit is restricted by demand and the lack of substantial reduction in supply, while the lower limit is supported by macro - expectations and restocking [3]. - Iron ore prices are expected to move sideways. The downward space is limited by restocking and high hot - metal production, but the upward space is constrained by demand and high shipping volumes, resulting in a weak price trend [21]. - For coal and coke, downstream restocking has improved the inventory structure of coking coal, and coke's second - round price cut has been fully implemented. However, the high supply pressure of steel and high inventory will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [35]. - The term structure of ferroalloys has gradually improved, which is beneficial for short - term price increases. The trading logic for the long - term is based on the anti - involution expectation, and the downward space is limited [51]. - The supply pressure of soda ash in the long - run remains high. Although the export in August was better than expected, the overall pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [63]. - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price, while the supply in the fourth quarter may have unexpected reductions [90]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3185 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3380 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts remained relatively stable compared to September 19 [4]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on September 22 was 3323 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 95 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 50 yuan/ton [7][9]. - **Ratio Data**: The ratios of 01 rebar/01 iron ore and 01 rebar/01 coke were both stable at 4 and 2 respectively from September 19 to September 22 [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the 01 iron ore contract was 808.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1 yuan. The basis of the 01 contract was - 8.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of September 19, the daily average hot - metal output was 241.02 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 13801.08 tons, and the global shipping volume was 3324.8 tons [28]. Coal and Coke - **Market Outlook**: Downstream restocking has improved the inventory structure of coking coal, and the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented. However, the high supply pressure of steel will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [35]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1144 yuan/ton, and the coking coal main - contract basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was - 74.0 yuan/ton [39]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, which is beneficial for short - term price increases. The long - term trading logic is based on the anti - involution expectation, and the downward space is limited [51]. - **Data for Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: For ferrosilicon on September 22, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 36 yuan, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5480 yuan/ton. For ferromanganese on September 19, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 116 yuan, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5730 yuan/ton [51][55]. Soda Ash - **Market Outlook**: The long - term supply of soda ash remains high. Although the export in August was better than expected, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [63]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1384 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 23 yuan and a daily decline rate of 1.63% [64]. Glass - **Market Outlook**: Glass prices lack a clear trend. The high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price, while the supply in the fourth quarter may have unexpected reductions [90]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1329 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 14 yuan and a daily decline rate of 1.04% [91].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. With the approaching peak season, if downstream demand recovers beyond expectations from late September to October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply side has policy support, but the demand and profit of steel restrict the upside space of raw materials. In the short - term, it will be in a volatile adjustment phase, and in the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended with caution about the upside space. [8][10] - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels. Although the market sentiment has improved in the short - term, the rapid decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in. [11][13] - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has short - term support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support, expected to oscillate at the bottom. [15][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: Last week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.35%, with daily hot metal output at 241.02 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.35%. Shanghai's rebar price was 3250 yuan (+10), and Shanghai's hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan (+10). [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector was volatile and slightly stronger on the night of the 19th. Iron water production increased slightly last week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. The demand is in the off - season, and the recovery is average. After the parade, the steel demand conforms to the seasonality. It is expected that hot metal production will remain high this week, and steel demand may improve next week. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Steel will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend; Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the coil - rebar spread; Option: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [6] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.7%, with daily raw coal output at 190.0 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke (wet quenching) was 1613 yuan/ton. [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The sentiment in the coking coal spot market has improved, and there is an expectation of price increases for coke. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, but imported coal can make up for some supply. Steel demand restricts the upside space of raw materials. [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile adjustment, medium - term, buy on dips with caution about the upside; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see. [10] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On September 22, a press conference on the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" will be held. Last week, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14381.68 million tons, and the daily port clearance volume was 351.03 million tons. [11] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices were strong last week. The global iron ore shipment increased in the third quarter, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand declined rapidly in the third quarter, and the price may face pressure at high levels. [11][13] - **Trading Strategy**: No trading strategy is provided in the given content. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Related Information**: The total manganese ore inventory decreased by 24.15 million tons. The supply of ferrosilicon was stable, and the supply of ferromanganese decreased slightly. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support. [15][19] - **Trading Strategy**: Ferrosilicon: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see. Ferromanganese: Unilateral: Oscillate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices. [17][20]

Report Title - Steel and Ore Weekly Report (2025-09-22): Peak Season Features Emerge, Steel Prices Fluctuate and Rise [1] Report Main Viewpoints Steel - **Price**: Spot prices stop falling and rebound, while the futures market fluctuates upward [4]. - **Supply**: Blast furnace production rises slightly, while electric furnace production continues to decline [4]. - **Inventory**: Building material inventory starts to decline, and plate inventory decreases slightly [4]. - **Demand**: The recovery of building material demand is slow, while the apparent demand for plates accumulates slightly [4]. - **Profit**: Blast furnace profits are slightly repaired, and electric furnace losses narrow [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 01 rebar contract expands significantly and is expected to continue expanding [4]. - **Summary**: The supply - demand structure of steel begins to improve, with peak - season features becoming more obvious. The futures market has high expectations for policies. Pay attention to the recovery speed and sustainability of demand. For strategies, stay on the sidelines for single - sided steel trading and consider shorting the rebar - ore ratio [4]. Iron Ore - **Price**: Ore prices rise slightly, and the futures market fluctuates upward [4]. - **Supply**: Shipments from Australia and Brazil increase, while arrivals decline month - on - month [4]. - **Demand**: Blast furnace production increases, and demand recovers month - on - month [4]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory decreases slightly, while downstream total inventory accumulates [4]. - **Shipping**: Shipping costs both rise [4]. - **Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread remains basically flat, and the 01 discount narrows slightly [4]. - **Summary**: Last week, the supply of iron ore tightened month - on - month, and demand continued to recover. The supply - demand structure continued to improve. In the short term, the market may still trade on the pre - National Day stockpiling, and ore prices may maintain a current volatile and upward trend. Aggressive investors can continue to look for short - term long - buying opportunities on pullbacks [4]. Market Conditions and Strategies Capital Sentiment and Technical Analysis - For rebar, positions continue to increase, trading volume expands, and the futures market shows a volatile and rising trend, forming a rounded bottom structure. However, it may face resistance around 3200. For iron ore, capital continues to flow in, the price breaks through effectively, and is expected to continue rising [5]. Strategy Recommendations - Hold long positions in iron ore on a single - sided basis. - Continue to consider shorting rebar and going long on iron ore for arbitrage. - For industrial clients in the spot - futures market, hold spot goods and establish a small number of short positions on the futures market when the price rebounds to form a positive arbitrage position. During the peak season, actively sell goods and try to reduce inventory levels [7]. Steel Monthly Market Tracking Price - Last week, rebar prices fluctuated upward, with the 01 contract rising 45 to 3172. Spot prices also increased, with rebar in East China reported at 3260 yuan/ton, up 40 week - on - week [13]. Supply - **Blast Furnace**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills in China is 83.98%, up 0.15 percentage points week - on - week and 5.75 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate is 90.35%, up 0.17 percentage points week - on - week and 6.29 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons week - on - week and 17.19 tons year - on - year [16]. - **Electric Furnace**: The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in China is 54.35%, down 0.91 percentage points week - on - week and up 14.68 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate is 70.63%, down 1.29 percentage points week - on - week and up 9.59 percentage points year - on - year [24]. - **Building Materials and Plates**: Rebar production decreased by 5.48 tons last week, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.35 tons. It is expected that rebar production will not decline significantly in the future, and hot - rolled coil production may slightly decline [27]. Demand - **Building Materials**: From September 4th to 10th, the clinker kiln line capacity utilization rate of 274 cement plants was 55.69%, up 14.96 percentage points week - on - week and 8.20 percentage points year - on - year. Infrastructure demand is continuously released, housing construction projects are accelerating the resumption of work, and the demand for rebar is gradually increasing. Speculative demand is also expected to recover [30]. - **Plates**: The downstream industries of hot - rolled coils have gradually started procurement plans. The current orders on hand of steel mills can still last for about 15 days, and rigid demand still supports hot - rolled coil consumption [34]. Profit - The profitability rate of steel mills is 58.87%, down 1.30 percentage points week - on - week and up 48.91 percentage points year - on - year. The profits of steel mills in Tangshan and East China have both recovered by about 30. The average profit of independent electric arc furnace building material steel mills is - 132 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit is - 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton week - on - week [38]. Inventory - **Building Materials**: The total inventory of five major steel products last week was 1519.74 tons, up 5.13 tons week - on - week. Building material inventory decreased by 2.78 tons, with rebar mill inventory decreasing by 1.56 tons and social inventory decreasing by 2.02 tons [43]. - **Plates**: Plate inventory increased by 3.24 tons week - on - week, with mill inventory increasing by 0.42 tons and social inventory increasing by 4.25 tons [46]. Basis - The basis of the rebar 01 contract rose 25 to 108, and the basis of the hot - rolled coil rose 20 to 66. Currently, the bases of both are at a relatively low level. Consider the opportunity of the rebar basis expanding [50]. Inter - period Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of rebar is - 60, with the contango deepening by 2 compared to last week. The 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil is - 10, down 6. In the short term, the far - month expectation of rebar is still strong, and the contango is difficult to reverse [54]. Inter - commodity Spread - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the futures market narrowed by 35 to 202, and the spot spread decreased by 40 to 160. It is recommended to do long - short trading on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, and go long when it is below 200 [57]. Iron Ore Monthly Market Tracking Price - Last week, the iron ore futures market fluctuated narrowly, with prices rising slightly. The 01 contract rose 8 to 807.5. The spot price was flat, with PB fines at Rizhao Port down 1 to 792 yuan/ton [63]. Supply - **Global Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment volume is 3573.1 tons, up 817 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in September is 3164.65 tons, down 113 tons month - on - month and 98 tons year - on - year [66]. - **Arrival**: The arrival volume of 47 ports is 2392.3 tons, down 181 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in September is 2482.6 tons, down 118 tons month - on - month and 36 tons year - on - year [72]. Demand - **Rigid Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 241.02 tons/day, up 0.47 tons/day week - on - week [75]. - **Speculative Demand**: The daily average spot trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports is 109 tons/day, up 5.5 tons week - on - week [79]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of September 19th, the inventory of 47 ports decreased by 74 tons, lower than the same period last year [82]. - **Downstream Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore in Chinese steel mills is 9309.43 tons, up 316.38 tons week - on - week. The daily consumption of imported ore is 297.45 tons, up 0.80 tons week - on - week. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.3 days, up 0.98 days week - on - week [85]. Shipping - The shipping price from Australia to Qingdao is 10.94 US dollars/ton, up 0.63 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping price from Brazil to Qingdao is 24.8 US dollars/ton, up 0.67 US dollars week - on - week [88]. Spread - The 01 contract basis is 17, narrowing by 2 week - on - week. The 1 - 5 spread is 21.5, narrowing by 0.5 week - on - week [91].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, the overall apparent demand in the consumption season is lower than expected, and the total inventory is still increasing. The expectation of the "anti - involution" policy is the current dominant factor. Before the National Day holiday, the downstream restocking demand supports the spot price [2]. - For iron ore, the "anti - involution" policy remains an important disturbing factor for the market. The supply is at a high level globally, and the port inventory has little change for now, but there is a possibility of inventory increase in the consumption season. Before the holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the iron ore demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: The output of rebar has decreased for four consecutive weeks, the apparent demand has rebounded, and the total inventory has turned to decline. The total output of the five major varieties decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1 tons, the social inventory increased by 6.3 tons, and the total inventory increased by 5.2 tons. The apparent demand increased by 7.0 tons week - on - week, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term long positions can be held with a light position, and investors should leave the market in time when the price rises. Conservative investors are advised to wait and see [2]. - **Data**: Various price data such as futures and spot prices, basis and spreads, and production, inventory, and demand data are provided, including the fact that the 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 83.83%, the average daily hot - metal output is 241.02 tons, etc. [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of sample steel mills decreased last week due to the sharp increase in coke prices and the decline in steel prices. The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 tons week - on - week. The global shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory has little change, but there may be an inventory increase in the consumption season. Before the holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the iron ore demand [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, wait patiently for a pull - back to go long, and be cautious about chasing the rise [4]. - **Data**: It includes various price data such as spot and futures prices, basis, and spreads, as well as shipment, inventory, and production data. For example, the Australian iron ore shipment is 1836.9 tons, and the Brazilian iron ore shipment is 790.6 tons [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Independent electric - arc - furnace construction steel mills are in a serious loss state, with an average profit of - 132 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit of - 35 yuan/ton, and there are still actions to reduce production [7]. - Last week, the scale of maintenance of construction steel mills increased, with 15 maintenance production lines and 10 restarted production lines [7]. - The total urban inventory this week is 933.75 tons, a decrease of 5.43 tons (- 0.58%) from last week [8]. - The Simandou iron ore project has entered a decisive stage, and the first - batch mining operations of Blocks 1 and 2 have officially started, with a current production capacity of 4000 tons per hour [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局在走弱，钢厂生产平稳，矿石终端消耗维持高位，叠加节前补库，需求表现尚可， 给予矿价支撑，但下游钢市矛盾不断累积，需求韧性料将趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到货虽延续回落， 但海外矿商发运大幅增加，再创下年内单周新高，海外供应重回高位，且内矿供应在恢复，矿石供应 压力持续增加。目前来看，矿石需求表现尚可，叠加市场情绪回暖，高位矿价震荡上行，但需求料将 趋弱，供应也在回升，基本面并无实质性改善，叠加估值相对偏高，节前走势谨慎乐观，谨防产业矛 盾激化。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend. The supply side saw a week - on - week increase in overseas shipments and a decline in arrivals last week, both at high levels in the same period of the past three years, with an expected increase in arrivals this week. The demand side witnessed good resumption of production in steel mills last week, with the molten iron output continuing to rise, and the daily average molten iron reaching over 2.41 million tons. With the approaching National Day holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the firmness of the spot market [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3172 | 36 | 1.15 | 8980373 | 3148179 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3374 | 4 | 0.12 | 2777138 | 1412324 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 807.5 | 11.5 | 1.44 | 1698860 | 533529 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1232.0 | 44.5 | 3.75 | 8119133 | 943381 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1738.5 | 50.0 | 2.96 | 160217 | 52987 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - **Demand Side**: Last week, steel mills' resumption of production expanded, and the molten iron output continued to rise. The daily average molten iron reached over 2.41 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.75 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4102 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 171900 tons. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.29 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 48.91 percentage points [1][4]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, overseas shipments increased week - on - week, and arrivals declined, both at high levels in the same period of the past three years, with an expected increase in arrivals this week. The total global iron ore shipments were 3573100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 816900 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2977800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 648200 tons. The Australian shipments were 2084600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 262200 tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1836200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 304900 tons. The Brazilian shipments were 893200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 386000 tons. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2850800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 583800 tons. The Australian shipments were 1981600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 202000 tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1736700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 244500 tons. The Brazilian shipments were 869300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 381800 tons. In terms of inventory, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports across the country was 143816800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 744400 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3510300 tons, an increase of 664000 tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News No relevant content provided. 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts related to the futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, consumption, and other aspects of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, such as the futures and spot price trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the basis trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the steel mill's profit per ton of steel, the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry's profit and loss situation, etc. [9][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating for iron ore is "sideways" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - High iron ore prices lead to relatively loose supply, high hot metal production shows strong consumption resilience, and overall inventory remains at a medium level [2] - Considering downstream pre - holiday stockpiling, iron ore prices will remain volatile in the short term. The supply from Simandou will exert significant pressure on long - term prices. Attention should be paid to the changes in floating cargo volume and pre - holiday stockpiling [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated strongly. The Mysteel 62% Australian powder forward price index was $106.25/ton, up $0.85/ton week - on - week, a rise of 0.81%. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 799.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton week - on - week, a rise of 0.63% [1][5] Supply - The latest data from Mysteel shows that the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.73 million tons this period, an increase of 8.17 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.62 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 million tons week - on - week [1][8] Demand - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills shows that the blast furnace operating rate was 83.98%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points week - on - week and 5.75 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points week - on - week and 6.29 percentage points year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 48.91 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.0047 million tons week - on - week and 0.1764 million tons year - on - year [1][10][11] Inventory - Mysteel statistics show that the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports in the country was 138.0108 million tons, a decrease of 0.4839 million tons week - on - week; the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.3917 million tons, an increase of 0.0789 million tons week - on - week [1][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to experience high-level oscillations, supported by both macro and micro expectations [3] - The fundamentals of iron ore show a situation of strong supply and demand, similar to coking coal and coke, but there are disturbances on the supply side. The valuation of black commodities still has some support on the macro side, and the view that raw materials are stronger than finished products is maintained [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased week-on-week, and the global high-frequency floating supply rebounded in a V-shape. The impact of the news about BHP's partial variety ban needs further observation [5] - Vale's global shipments were 611.2 tons, a week-on-week increase of 259.1 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 50.8 tons. Its cumulative shipments from the beginning of the year to the 37th week of 2025 were 19,893 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3 tons, or -0.1% [4] - The supply of non-mainstream mines from Peru and Ukraine has not recovered, while the production capacity utilization rate of domestic mines has stabilized [20][28] Demand - Considering the pre-holiday production demand of intermediate products, blast furnace operations strengthened again, and pig iron production rose above 2.4 million tons. The immediate demand for raw material spot remains strong [5] - Pig iron production rose above 2.4 million tons again, and port ore handling volume increased due to high downstream operations and restocking demand before the holiday [30] Macro Level - Overseas interest rate cuts were announced as expected, but the impact was limited after the decision was made. The domestic macro expectation strengthened after the China-US presidential call, providing some support for the valuation of black commodities [5] Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated strongly, closing at 800.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 575,000 lots, an increase of 31,300 lots. The average daily trading volume was 34,000 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 5,600 lots [7] Spot Price Performance - Last week, both the spot and futures markets showed high-level narrow-range oscillations. Among them, the price of BRBF increased by 5 yuan/ton, the price of PB powder decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and the price of super special powder increased by 14 yuan/ton [11] Inventory - The inflection point of port inventory has not arrived yet, and the inventory of iron concentrate has decreased significantly recently [38][39] Downstream Profits - The spot and futures profits of downstream products have started to show a divergent trend [41] Spot Category Spreads - The price of super special powder has been relatively strong recently, and the spread between medium and low-grade (PB - super special) has continued to narrow significantly, reaching a recent low [44] Futures Monthly Spreads - Recently, both the fundamental reality and macro expectations have been relatively strong, and the 1 - 5 spread has been relatively stable [46][47] Basis Performance - The futures market has been slightly stronger, and the 05 basis has contracted month-on-month [51]