文丨酒食汇团队 7月7日，全兴酒业"全速向兴"2025年度兴宴巡回至成都，为期27天，走过了10省市的"兴宴"，所到之处响动"品全兴 万事兴"的口号，不仅为全兴在淡季升 温注入了源源不断的"兴"能量，更通过沉浸式体验，让"兴"文化抵达更多消费者的心智。 作为"兴宴"的主角，升级之后的全兴大曲樽系列和彩系列也成为行业瞩目的焦点，赢得了近万名商家与消费者的一致好评，为全兴酒业"中国人的祝兴 （xīng）酒"品牌定位提供强有力的支撑。 全面升级，老名酒更"樽"贵、更出"彩" 众所周知，主线核心产品的每一次迭代升级，都承载着酒企更大的战略价值，也是应对消费者需求变化，与时俱进的必然之举。 全兴大曲樽系列和彩系列的上一轮升级是2022年。当年，白酒新国标的实施，进一步促进了消费者对于高品质白酒的追求。因此在本轮的升级中，全兴酒 业更侧重于"品质升级"，在"传世水谱、秘制双曲、超长发酵、降度储存"四大工艺基础上加强了酒体的和润口感。 在2024年11月召开的年度经销商大会上，全兴酒业正式焕新品牌定位——中国人的祝兴酒，并透露未来品牌矩阵升级焕新计划。其中，"全兴大曲"厚植中 国名酒基因，聚焦中档商务、宴席场景，对樽系列和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent personnel changes at Jinzhongzi Liquor Company reflect the challenges faced by the company and the broader Huaren Group's "beer + liquor" dual strategy amid a significant downturn in the liquor industry [1][2][3] Company Performance - Jinzhongzi Liquor's performance has been declining, with a reported revenue of 296 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 29.41% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders showed a loss of 38.93 million yuan, marking a staggering year-on-year decline of 320.62% [2][3] - Since Huaren Group took over, Jinzhongzi has recorded losses of 187 million yuan in 2022, 22.07 million yuan in 2023, and an expanded loss of 258 million yuan in 2024 [3] Strategic Challenges - The "1+N" strategy of Huaren Group, which includes Jinzhongzi as a key component, is facing difficulties as both beer and liquor segments struggle [1][3] - The company has attempted to implement a "one body, two wings" brand strategy targeting both mass and high-end markets, but has faced challenges in execution [3] - The recent personnel changes are seen as a response to the need for effective strategies to reverse the declining performance in a highly competitive market [3][4] Industry Context - The liquor industry is currently undergoing deep adjustments and differentiation, with intense market competition and critical inventory levels among distributors [3] - Huaren Beer, the parent company, is also experiencing leadership changes and declining sales, with a reported revenue of 38.635 billion yuan in 2024, down 0.76% year-on-year [6] - The beer segment's sales volume decreased by 2.5%, indicating broader challenges within the Huaren Group's beverage portfolio [6] Future Directions - The future leadership of Huaren Beer will face significant challenges, including the need for a strategic focus on high-end market penetration and balancing the scale advantages of beer with the potential of the liquor segment [7][8] - Industry experts suggest that Huaren Group must establish a dedicated liquor management team and avoid relying solely on beer business strategies to succeed in the liquor market [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a shift towards low-alcohol products, driven by changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics, as companies aim to capture market share by introducing lower alcohol content options [1][2][5]. Industry Trends - Major liquor companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are launching low-alcohol products, with Wuliangye introducing a 29-degree version and Luzhou Laojiao developing products as low as 16 degrees [1][4]. - The trend towards low-alcohol liquor is not new; the industry has seen low-alcohol products since the 1970s, but recent consumer preferences have accelerated this shift [2][3]. Consumer Preferences - A survey by Wuliangye indicated that 60% of young consumers prefer low-alcohol products, highlighting a significant shift in the consumer base towards younger drinkers [5][6]. - The changing demographics of liquor consumers, particularly the rise of young professionals born between 1985 and 1994, are prompting companies to adapt their branding and product offerings [5][6]. Market Predictions - The low-alcohol liquor market is projected to exceed 74 billion yuan by 2025, indicating a substantial growth opportunity for companies willing to innovate in this space [5]. - The introduction of low-alcohol products is expected to alter the competitive landscape of the liquor market, as more companies enter this segment [2][4]. Production Challenges - Producing low-alcohol liquor is technically more challenging than high-alcohol variants, requiring advanced techniques to maintain flavor and quality [6][9]. - Maintaining the "soul" of the liquor, or its unique flavor profile, is crucial in the development of low-alcohol products, as simply reducing alcohol content may compromise quality [6][7]. Pricing Strategies - While low-alcohol products may have higher production costs, pricing strategies will vary based on brand positioning and market competition [9][10]. - Companies are exploring price ranges for new low-alcohol products, with potential pricing strategies targeting the 300-500 yuan range to attract a broader consumer base [10][11]. Industry Concerns - Not all liquor brands are suited for low-alcohol product development, and companies must consider their unique flavor profiles and production capabilities before entering this market [11].

7月8日，据贵州茅台微信公众号消息，贵州茅台酒销售有限公司2025年半年市场工作会召开。 会上，茅台集团董事长张德芹表示，茅台酒销售公司完成了上半年既定经营任务。 张德芹认为，当前的市场，是一次深刻的时代性跨越，白酒行业正加速从以商品为中心的时代，转向以 消费者为中心的商品时代或者是"商品+服务"的时代。面对白酒行业的根本性时代变革，茅台有足够的 信心与定力成为破冰前行的引领者。这份底气，源自外部的机遇，也源自茅台自身的实力。基于对市场 环境与趋势的判断，茅台需要主动求变，从商品时代向商品与服务并重转变，从"渠道为王"向"消费者 为王"转变，摒弃被动等待的思维，以积极姿态应对时代挑战，把握发展机遇。 茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉表示，要加大转型的力度，实现业务破局开局。要以解决供需不适配 问题为着力点，加大客群转型力度；紧密契合国家政策导向和新的市场趋势，围绕"事业和生活"两条主 线，加大场景转型力度；以消费者为中心，从功能价值、体验价值、情绪价值方面，加大服务转型力 度。优化改进的举措，推动市场稳健发展。要持续优化市场策略，持续改进工作作风，聚焦产品、价 格、渠道等重点任务，以作风建设为抓手，夯实市场基本 ...

Market Sentiment - The market sentiment remains cautious, with investors not fully trusting the current rally due to past experiences of losses [1][3] - The banking sector is perceived to be suppressing the index, despite its low weight, impacting overall market performance [1] Index Performance - The market is expected to reach 3500 points soon, with the Hong Kong stock market showing positive trends [3] - The real resistance level for the market is identified at 3700 points, which needs to be surpassed for a significant bullish sentiment [3] - The white liquor sector is highlighted as a potential driver for index growth, with expectations of a 300-point increase if it performs well [3] Sector Analysis - The current market dynamics are characterized by sector rotation, with the securities sector being a key player in the ongoing rally [5] - White liquor, insurance, and banking are identified as the main sectors capable of lifting the Shanghai Composite Index [5] - The cyclical sectors like steel, cement, and coal are noted to have diminished influence compared to previous decades [5] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain their trading plans and not to overthink market movements, focusing instead on holding positions for potential gains [7] - The expectation is for a rapid upward movement in the market, suggesting that current levels should not be viewed as a peak [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcements from various liquor companies, including Sichuan Water Well, indicate a strategic shift towards controlling inventory and stabilizing pricing in response to market fluctuations and channel disruptions [1][3][11] Group 1: Company Actions - Sichuan Water Well announced a halt on the sale of its "Zhen Niang No. 8" 500ml product across all channels and implemented measures to stabilize the value chain and manage promotions during the 618 sales period [1] - The company emphasized the importance of maintaining a stable pricing system to boost market confidence and support the steady development of its core products [1] - Other liquor companies, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye, have also issued stop-sale notices and are focusing on inventory reduction and ensuring distributor profitability [3][5] Group 2: Industry Trends - The liquor industry is experiencing a trend of inventory control and price stabilization as companies respond to market adjustments and unstable terminal prices [5][6] - Industry leaders are advocating for measures to ensure distributor profitability, which is seen as essential for maintaining active sales efforts and preventing price erosion [6][11] - Recent data indicates significant profit declines for liquor distributors, highlighting the need for companies to support their partners to avoid excess inventory and price drops [5][6] Group 3: E-commerce and Market Regulation - Sichuan Water Well has taken strict actions against violations of company policies during the 618 promotion, including penalties and termination of partnerships [1][7] - Other companies, such as Wuliangye and Jian Nan Chun, have also raised concerns about counterfeit products being sold through e-commerce platforms, urging consumers to purchase through official channels [8][10] - The industry is increasingly focused on transparency and traceability to combat counterfeit products and ensure consumer trust [11]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Sichuan Shui Jing Fang Co., Ltd. has taken significant measures to address market disruptions, including halting sales of its key product, Zhen Niang No. 8, to stabilize pricing and restore market confidence [2][3] - The company has implemented a "first punch" by stopping the sales of Zhen Niang No. 8 500ml across all channels until further notice, as this product contributes over 50% of the company's annual revenue [2] - The "second punch" involves strict control over e-commerce pricing policies to maintain a stable pricing system, including measures for the 520ml version of Zhen Niang No. 8 to support the product's value [2] Group 2 - The "third punch" focuses on investigating and recovering products that are being sold in violation of company policies, with a commitment to "recover as much as possible" from the market [3] - The company has already taken action against customers and individuals who violated policies during the 618 shopping festival, including fines and termination of partnerships [3] - The white liquor industry is currently facing an adjustment period with high channel inventory and sluggish terminal sales, leading to low-price dumping and channel conflicts that have affected industry confidence [3][4] Group 3 - Other liquor companies, such as Wuliangye, Yanghe, and Luzhou Laojiao, have also issued stop-sale notices, indicating a broader industry trend towards stabilizing prices and managing inventory [4] - Yanghe's future channel strategy aims for stable sales, inventory reduction, and price protection, while Wuliangye is expected to reduce output this year [4] - The industry is collectively focusing on ensuring channel profitability and preventing price wars, as highlighted by the statements from various liquor companies [3][4]

Core Insights - The resignation of senior executives from both China Resources Beer and Jinzhongzi Wine highlights a critical juncture for the "Beer + White" strategy of China Resources [1][6][9] - Jinzhongzi Wine continues to face challenges with declining performance, while China Resources Beer is also experiencing a drop in beer sales, indicating ongoing difficulties for both companies [1][4][7] Group 1: Executive Changes - Jinzhongzi Wine's General Manager He Xiuxia resigned on July 2 due to work adjustments, with the company stating that this will not affect its normal operations [3][4] - China Resources Beer Chairman Hou Xiaohai resigned at the end of June for personal reasons, having previously sold a significant number of shares, indicating preparation for his departure [6][7] Group 2: Financial Performance - Jinzhongzi Wine reported a revenue of 296 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 29.41%, with a net loss of approximately 38.93 million yuan, down 320.62% [4][5] - China Resources Beer achieved a revenue of 38.635 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 0.76%, with a net profit of 4.739 billion yuan, down 8.03% [7][8] Group 3: Strategic Challenges - The "Beer + White" strategy is facing difficulties as both beer and white wine segments are underperforming, with Jinzhongzi Wine's sales strategy and product positioning needing reevaluation [5][10] - The integration of beer and white wine operations is proving challenging due to fundamental differences in consumer behavior and market dynamics [10][11] Group 4: Market Position and Competition - Jinzhongzi Wine's market position is under pressure, with the need for effective strategies to reverse its declining performance amid fierce competition in the white wine sector [4][5] - China Resources Beer is struggling to maintain its market share in the high-end segment, facing stiff competition from international brands like Budweiser and Heineken [7][8] Group 5: Future Directions - The future leadership of China Resources Beer will need to focus on high-end market strategies and balancing the scale advantages of beer with the potential of new white wine ventures [8][9] - There is a call for a specialized team for white wine operations to avoid reliance on beer business practices, emphasizing the need for tailored strategies in brand management and consumer engagement [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant downturns in the liquor and photovoltaic industries, highlighting the challenges faced by both sectors and the potential conditions for recovery. Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is currently facing three major challenges: weak consumer demand, high inventory levels, and price inversion [9][10]. - Consumer demand is declining, with a shift towards mid-to-low-end products and a weakened correlation with the real estate sector, impacting traditional consumption scenarios [10][11]. - High inventory levels are a result of manufacturers pushing products onto distributors during the pandemic, leading to a "dam" effect where excess stock remains unsold [12][14]. - The valuation bubble that existed during the liquidity peak of 2020-2021 has burst, with the China Liquor Index's PE-TTM ratio previously exceeding 70 times, now facing significant earnings growth declines [15][16]. - Recovery in the liquor sector depends on economic recovery, inventory normalization, and strategic adjustments by companies to target new consumer segments [21][23]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to widespread losses across the sector [17]. - Rapid capacity expansion from 2020 to 2022 has resulted in overproduction, with projected capacities far exceeding demand, leading to price crashes across the supply chain [17][18]. - Technological iterations, particularly the shift from PERC to N-type technologies, are intensifying competition and causing old production lines to become obsolete [18]. - The industry faces significant geopolitical risks, including trade barriers and instability in energy policies due to ongoing global conflicts [19][20]. - Conditions for recovery in the photovoltaic sector are clearer, with expectations for capacity reduction and stabilization of prices by 2025, alongside potential technological advancements [25][26]. Market Divergence and Potential Risks - Optimistic views suggest that the worst may be over for both industries, with opportunities emerging as pessimistic expectations are priced in [27][32]. - Cautious perspectives highlight the lack of substantial improvement in fundamentals, warning against premature investments [28][33]. - Key risks include macroeconomic uncertainties, slow capacity clearance, deteriorating overseas markets, and uncertainties in technological advancements [34][35][36][37]. Long-term Outlook - Both industries are undergoing painful adjustments as they transition towards higher quality development, with the liquor sector focusing on brand enhancement and the photovoltaic sector on technological leadership [38][39].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on "supply-side optimization" and "anti-involution" competition, with potential policy implementations expected in the second half of the year [3][8]. - Key industries identified for "anti-involution" include those with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels, particularly in sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel, and various manufacturing and consumer goods [3][11][13]. - The report outlines five perspectives for identifying potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies, including state-owned enterprise (SOE) share, industry concentration, tax revenue impact, labor intensity, and price elasticity post-capacity reduction [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Focus - The report highlights that the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1 emphasized supply-side optimization and "anti-involution" competition, referencing past supply-side reforms from 2015-2016 as a model for future policy actions [3][8]. Key Industry Characteristics - Industries with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels are targeted for policy intervention. These include: - Cyclical industries: Chemicals (chemical products, rubber, non-metallic materials), non-ferrous metals (energy metals), coal, and steel (common steel, steel raw materials) [3][11]. - Manufacturing: Electric new (motors, grid equipment, batteries, photovoltaics), machinery (automation equipment), automotive (passenger vehicles), military electronics, and construction [3][11]. - Consumer goods: Home appliances (appliance components), food and beverage (food processing, liquor, snacks) [3][11]. Five Perspectives for Industry Selection - **State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Share**: Industries with higher SOE shares are expected to have stronger policy execution efficiency, including coal, common steel, cement, glass, and consumer sectors like liquor [3][5]. - **Industry Concentration**: Higher concentration industries are more likely to achieve supply clearing through stronger pricing power and quicker policy response, particularly in energy metals, non-metallic materials, and consumer goods like liquor [3][5]. - **Tax Revenue Impact**: Industries with lower tax revenue contributions will have a smaller impact on local finances during capacity reduction, focusing on sectors like glass, energy metals, and common steel [3][5]. - **Labor Intensity**: Industries with lower labor intensity will have a reduced impact on employment during capacity reduction, including non-metallic materials, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. - **Price Elasticity Post-Capacity Reduction**: Industries with a strong correlation between asset turnover and gross margin are expected to see greater price and margin expansion post-capacity reduction, including glass, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. Potential Beneficiary Industries - The report identifies several industries as potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies based on the five perspectives, including: - Coal mining, common steel, precious metals, glass fiber, coke, energy metals, steel raw materials, cement, chemical products, non-metallic materials, and various manufacturing sectors [6][7].