Group 1: Market Overview and Trends - International gold prices opened at $4532.41 per ounce last week, peaked at $4550.52, and closed at $4332.51, marking a 4.41% decline, ending a three-week upward trend [2] - The decline in gold prices was influenced by margin increases and position limits imposed by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Guangzhou Futures Exchange, and Chicago Mercantile Exchange [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent discussions highlighted tightening liquidity in the U.S. money market, with rising repo rates and increased use of standing repo facilities to maintain adequate reserve levels [3] Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation Insights - The Federal Reserve expressed concerns over reduced hiring due to economic uncertainty and insufficient labor supply, leading to a rise in unemployment rates [4] - Inflation pressures in the U.S. have decreased compared to early 2025, with tariffs identified as a key factor in rising core goods inflation [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Events Impacting Gold Prices - The U.S. airstrike on Venezuela and the arrest of President Maduro are expected to drive gold prices higher due to increased safe-haven buying and concerns over strategic metal supply disruptions [5] - Historical patterns suggest that gold prices may experience volatility following military actions, but the current geopolitical landscape may reinforce gold's status as a risk-free asset [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing interest of young investors in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by macroeconomic factors and the AI industry revolution. It highlights a shift from traditional savings to more speculative trading behaviors among younger demographics, emphasizing the role of social media and community dynamics in shaping investment decisions [3][11]. Group 1: Young Investors' Behavior - Young investors, like the character Yuanyuan, are actively engaging in gold investments, utilizing strategies to optimize their purchases through discounts and promotions, reflecting a trend of meticulous research and community sharing in investment practices [5][6]. - The concept of "doing homework" in gold trading has emerged as a social currency among young investors, where sharing successful purchase strategies fosters community engagement and knowledge exchange [7][11]. - Data from JD Finance indicates that over 50% of gold investors are from the post-90s generation, with a preference for flexible and lightweight investment options, showcasing a trend towards fragmented financial management [8]. Group 2: Shift to Other Metals - As gold prices stabilize, younger investors are exploring other metals like copper and silver, shifting their mindset from risk-averse savings to trend-based trading, driven by clearer supply-demand data in these markets [9][10]. - The article notes that some young investors, such as Linna, have transitioned from gold to silver investments, influenced by community discussions on market trends and industrial applications of these metals [10][11]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The price of gold has seen significant increases, with a reported rise of over 66% since early 2025, reaching levels not seen in nearly 46 years, which has fueled the interest of young investors [13]. - Analysts express a generally positive outlook for the continuation of the gold market's upward trend, citing concerns over the dollar's credibility and ongoing global monetary expansion as key factors supporting gold's value [14]. - Strategic metals like copper and silver are expected to benefit from the same macroeconomic conditions as gold, with their demand driven by the AI revolution and industrial applications, indicating potential for price increases [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that in 2025, investing in mainstream indices yielded positive returns due to a favorable monetary policy environment, with significant gains in various asset classes, particularly gold and silver [2][4]. - Major global indices showed substantial growth, with the Hang Seng Index leading at 27.77%, followed by the Nikkei 225 at 26.18%, and the Shanghai Composite Index at 17.66% [5]. - Despite overall positive performance, there were notable fluctuations and risks throughout the year, including significant drawdowns in major indices due to various market events [11]. Group 2 - The investment landscape in 2025 was characterized by a structural shift towards technology and metals, with AI and advanced manufacturing sectors leading the market, while traditional sectors like coal and real estate lagged [13][14]. - Successful investing in 2025 required a diversified approach and the ability to select the right assets amidst rapid market rotations [15]. - Investor psychology played a crucial role in determining returns, with common pitfalls including emotional decision-making and mismanagement of market expectations [16][22]. Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, the article suggests that the prevailing low-interest-rate environment will continue to favor risk assets, encouraging investors to adopt a diversified investment strategy across various asset classes [24][25]. - The article highlights the importance of long-term investment strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging and dynamic rebalancing, to mitigate short-term market volatility and capture asset rotation opportunities [28].

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among public funds is that the A-share market in 2026 will transition from "valuation-driven" to "profit-driven," with expectations of a "slow bull" or "oscillating upward" market characterized by gradual improvement in corporate earnings [2][3][4]. Market Outlook - Public funds are generally optimistic about the A-share market in 2026, predicting a shift in market drivers from "valuation repair" in 2025 to "profit-driven" growth, leading to a potential upward trend [1][2]. - The market is expected to experience a gradual upward movement, with corporate earnings recovery being a key factor for stable growth [2][3]. Sector Focus - The technology sector is identified as the core investment theme, with a shift in focus from generalized computing infrastructure to specific applications and cutting-edge technologies [4][5]. - AI is highlighted as a critical mid-level variable influencing market resilience, with expectations for significant returns from AI applications [5][6]. Balanced Investment Strategy - There is a growing emphasis on a balanced investment strategy, moving from a growth-dominant approach in 2025 to a more equitable distribution between growth and value stocks in 2026 [7][8]. - The resource and dividend asset sectors are gaining attention, driven by expectations of a global manufacturing recovery and domestic policy improvements [8]. Consumer Sector Insights - The consumer sector, previously underperforming, is now viewed positively, with expectations for recovery in consumption growth as supportive policies are implemented [8].

Group 1 - The event of the U.S. capturing Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife may lead to significant intervention in Venezuela's oil industry, impacting global oil supply and prices [1] - Short-term oil prices may see a slight increase, but volatility is expected to be limited due to global heavy oil inventories remaining within a safe range [1] - A long-term disruption in Venezuela could create a structural gap in global energy supply, with a need for $15-20 billion investment to increase heavy oil production by 500,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the short-term risk aversion in the market may reverse in the medium term, as geopolitical conflicts and U.S. fiscal deficits could weaken the long-term appeal of the dollar [2] - The energy sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints, while emerging markets, particularly in Latin America and parts of Africa, may face capital outflows and rising risk premiums [2] - The event is likely to influence global supply chains and investment strategies over a longer period, prompting multinational companies to reassess investment safety in Latin America [2] Group 3 - The event reinforces the importance of the "de-dollarization" trend for China, with increased focus on RMB-denominated energy trade and the "oil-for-loans" mechanism [2] - The U.S. geopolitical resource intervention model may further politicize and regionalize international energy investments, increasing uncertainty in global supply chains [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metal sector, highlighting potential investment opportunities amidst geopolitical tensions and inventory dynamics [1][4]. Core Insights - China's manufacturing PMI for December 2025 exceeded expectations, indicating a general recovery in economic sentiment [1][14]. - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell below expectations, suggesting a stronger labor market than anticipated [2][15]. - Geopolitical tensions escalated with U.S. military actions in Venezuela, raising security risks in the region [3][16]. - China is tightening regulations on copper and alumina production capacity in its new five-year plan, aiming to curb disorderly investments [4][17]. - CME raised margin requirements for precious metals futures twice within two weeks, impacting silver prices while potentially supporting gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainties [5][18]. Market Review - The non-ferrous metal sector slightly outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.41% [9]. - Industrial metals showed a notable performance, with copper prices rising and inventory imbalances becoming more pronounced [19][22]. - Precious metals faced downward pressure due to margin increases, but geopolitical tensions may drive gold prices higher [31][36]. Price and Inventory Changes - Copper prices on LME reached $12,460.50 per ton, up 2.70% week-on-week, while SHFE copper prices were at ¥98,240.00 per ton, down 0.49% [19][22]. - LME aluminum prices increased to $3,021.00 per ton, with SHFE prices at ¥22,925.00 per ton [19][22]. - Zinc prices on LME were $3,127.00 per ton, with SHFE prices at ¥23,275.00 per ton [20][21]. - Inventory levels for copper on LME decreased by 5.98% to 145,325 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 30.11% to 145,342 tons [23]. Strategic Metal Insights - Cobalt prices rose due to supply constraints, with electrolytic cobalt priced at ¥456,000 per ton [40][41]. - Tungsten prices continued to rise, supported by supply reductions and policy controls, with average prices for tungsten bars at ¥1,180.00 per kg [46][48]. - The report emphasizes the potential for strategic metals and small metals to experience valuation reconstruction opportunities due to ongoing export control measures and market dynamics [57].

业 及 产 业 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 05 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 金属价格延续强势，看好春季行情 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251229-20260102 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 1．一周行情回顾 行 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.71%，深证成指上涨 0.29%，沪深 300 下跌 0.09%，有色金属（申 万）指数上涨 3.31%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.39 个百分点。2）分子板块看， ...

Group 1 - The U.S. military operation led to the swift capture of Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, resulting in the collapse of the regime in a matter of hours [1][3] - Trump's announcement of significant investments by U.S. oil companies to restore Venezuela's oil infrastructure, while maintaining sanctions, indicates a strategic shift in how U.S. capital will flow from Venezuela's resources [4][6] - The military action reflects a change in U.S. strategy, opting for targeted strikes rather than large-scale invasions, showcasing a shift in military confidence and capability [6][8] Group 2 - Financial markets reacted with a rise in gold and silver prices, indicating increased investor anxiety over geopolitical risks, while U.S. stock futures remained stable, suggesting a lack of confidence in the strategic benefits of the U.S. action [4][6] - The significant oil reserves in Venezuela, totaling 303 billion barrels, represent a major economic asset, yet the country's wealth has historically led to challenges rather than benefits [4][10] - The international response to the U.S. action has been largely critical, with leaders from Brazil and Chile condemning the military intervention, highlighting a potential shift in global perceptions of U.S. foreign policy [8][10] Group 3 - The potential for increased capital outflow from the U.S. due to the military action raises concerns about the future of the dollar and the financial burden on the U.S. government [10][12] - The ongoing inflation issues in the U.S. could be exacerbated by rising oil prices resulting from geopolitical conflicts, posing challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [12] - The market's inclination towards investing in non-U.S. assets, such as Chinese assets, suggests a growing sentiment against the sustainability of U.S. dollar dominance [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - Precious metals are recommended for strong holding due to expected market volatility and political events that may drive demand for safe-haven assets [4] - Copper prices are expected to rise, with a recommendation to buy on dips due to anticipated supply tightness in 2026 [5] - Aluminum is also recommended for buying on dips, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating demand [5] - Cobalt prices have shown a solid upward trend, with strong support expected due to supply constraints [6] - Lithium prices have surged, and it is advised to buy on dips as demand remains stable [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 8408.59, with a weekly high of 8408.59 and a low of 4295.55 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: Copper up 3.00%, Aluminum up 1.37%, Zinc up 1.28%, Lead up 0.30%, while Tin decreased by 4.75% [19] - Precious metals experienced declines: Gold down 3.85%, Silver down 1.25%, Palladium down 8.79%, and Platinum down 26.92% [19] - New energy metals saw significant increases: Nickel up 7.15%, Cobalt up 12.41%, and Lithium up 16.75% [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes included an increase of 38,474 tons in copper, a decrease of 4,067 tons in aluminum, and various changes in other metals [30][32]

Group 1: Market Reactions to Geopolitical Events - The domestic futures market experienced significant volatility, with palladium, lithium carbonate, and platinum rising over 6%, while crude oil, coking coal, and soda ash fell over 2% due to a geopolitical event involving Venezuela [1][10] - A sudden military action by the U.S. against Venezuela led to a surge in safe-haven buying in the precious metals market, with palladium futures rising over 8% and platinum futures increasing over 6% [3][15] - Analysts noted that the rebound in platinum and palladium was primarily driven by geopolitical risks rather than significant changes in their fundamental demand [3][15] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - Lithium carbonate futures surged over 7%, driven by clear domestic policy support and tightening supply conditions [5][18] - The Chinese government extended the subsidy for replacing old cars with new ones, enhancing demand expectations for the lithium battery industry [6][18] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 119,500 yuan per ton, indicating a strong bullish sentiment due to supply constraints [6][18] Group 3: Crude Oil Market Analysis - Despite the geopolitical event involving Venezuela, domestic crude oil futures fell over 3%, highlighting complex market dynamics [5][17] - Concerns about global economic growth and risk appetite were cited as primary factors suppressing crude oil demand expectations [5][17] - The long-term supply-demand outlook for crude oil remains unchanged, with no significant supply disruptions expected [5][17] Group 4: Macro Economic Indicators - China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in December, indicating a return to expansion and providing fundamental support for the market [7][19] - The positive macroeconomic sentiment contributed to a strong performance in stock index futures, with the CSI 500 index rising 3.11% [7][19] - Improved macroeconomic conditions also positively impacted basic metals, with aluminum, copper, and zinc futures all rising over 2% [7][20] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue operating under the dual themes of external risk disturbances and internal industrial transformations in 2026 [10][21] - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities amidst market differentiation and competition, with ongoing volatility in precious metals and the need for further data to validate the performance of the new energy sector [10][22]