Core Insights - Guangdong's service industry revenue for the first five months reached 2.37 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [1] Revenue Growth by Sector - Transportation, warehousing, and postal services experienced a year-on-year growth of 9.3% [1] - Information transmission, software, and IT services grew by 8.3% [1] - Real estate (excluding real estate development) saw an increase of 2.6% [1] - Rental and business services also grew by 9.3% [1] - Scientific research and technical services had a growth of 1.8% [1] - Water, environment, and public facilities management declined by 1.9% [1] - Resident services, repair, and other services decreased by 1.6% [1] - Education sector grew by 5.7% [1] - Health and social work experienced a decline of 1.1% [1] - Cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors grew by 4.8% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The balance of bank convertible bonds may shrink by approximately 10 billion yuan this year, and by the end of 2025, it may be around 9 billion yuan. If other commercial banks can follow the example of state - owned banks' low - PB private placements, there may be a possibility of supplementary supply of bank convertible bonds [3][4]. - The replacement bottom - position varieties should have the characteristics of high rating, low volatility, and high capital capacity. It is recommended to pay attention to AAA - rated convertible bonds in non - banking finance and general public utilities for low - volatility and high - rating, and photovoltaic equipment and pig - breeding convertible bonds for large capital capacity [3][40]. - For photovoltaic equipment convertible bonds, it is recommended to screen leading individual bonds and leave room for rating downgrades. When the convertible bond price is low, gradually build a position [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. The balance of bank convertible bonds may shrink by about 10 billion yuan this year - As of June 30, 2025, there were 10 bank convertible bonds in the market, with a balance of 13.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 7 bonds and 11.1 billion yuan compared with the end of 2023. If the relevant convertible bonds are all delisted, the balance of bank convertible bonds will further shrink by 10.13 billion yuan to 8.98 billion yuan by the end of 2025 compared with the end of 2024 [4]. - The shrinkage of bank convertible bond scale may be irreversible in the short term. It is necessary to observe the progress of bank capital replenishment. Currently, the policy supports state - owned large - scale banks to replenish core tier - one capital. This year, the private placement prices of four state - owned big banks were lower than 1 - time PB, about 0.7 - time PB. There are bank convertible bonds totaling 2.9 billion yuan that have been announced but not issued, and the current PB multiples of the underlying stocks are between 0.5 - 0.7 times [4]. 2. The replacement bottom - position varieties should have three characteristics: high rating, low volatility, and high capital capacity - Before 2024, bank convertible bonds mainly served as bottom - position allocation varieties, with limited contribution to returns. Since 2024, due to the strengthening of the dividend style, bank convertible bonds have advantages in both returns and volatility. After bank convertible bonds exit the market, investors may return to the pre - 2024 investment model, and the difficulty of participation has increased. Some investors may leave the convertible bond market [13]. - The replacement bottom - position varieties should have high rating, low volatility, and high capital capacity. Configuration is the primary function, and individual bond elastic returns are a by - product [13]. 3. Low - volatility and high - rating: AAA - rated convertible bonds in non - banking finance and general public utilities - As of June 30, there were 4 non - banking finance convertible bonds, with 3 AAA - rated ones having a total scale of 1.46 billion yuan. They belong to the same large - finance industry as bank convertible bonds, with low risks of underlying stock delisting and credit default. After a sharp rise, it is not recommended to chase the high. When the convertible bond price returns to around 110 - 115 yuan, it may be a good bottom - position allocation buying point [17]. - The so - called "general public utilities" include public utilities and transportation. There are 3 AAA - rated convertible bonds in this sector, with a balance of 1 billion yuan. The advantage is a long remaining term, and the disadvantage is a relatively high current convertible bond price and insufficient defense against underlying stock decline [18][20]. 4. Large capital capacity: Photovoltaic equipment and pig - breeding convertible bonds - Photovoltaic equipment and pig - breeding are both strong - cycle industries. The current balance of photovoltaic equipment convertible bonds is 6.08 billion yuan, and the balance of pig - breeding convertible bonds is 2.72 billion yuan. The photovoltaic equipment sector's net profit turned negative in 2024, and the pig - breeding sector may have passed the most difficult period, but the pig price has been falling since August 2024 [21]. - The advantages of photovoltaic equipment convertible bonds are low prices and high capital accommodation. It is recommended to screen leading individual bonds and leave room for rating downgrades. The advantage of pig - breeding convertible bonds is mainly large capital capacity, and it is necessary to pay attention to the marginal changes in the pig price [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the significant advancements in China's transportation infrastructure, including the installation of over 890,000 kilowatts of clean energy capacity and the completion of 35,000 charging stations, alongside a railway electrification rate of 75.3% [1] - The transportation sector is recognized as a foundational and strategic industry in the national economy, benefiting from the integration of advanced technologies such as digital information and artificial intelligence, which provide a platform for new productive forces [1][2] - The focus is shifting from traditional scale expansion to innovation-driven development, necessitating upgrades to existing infrastructure and the cultivation of new business models to meet emerging consumer demands [1][2] Group 2 - There is a strong emphasis on technological innovation within the transportation sector, advocating for the development of smart transportation and logistics through the integration of big data, the internet, and artificial intelligence [2] - The transportation industry serves as a testing ground for advanced technologies and a platform for the incubation of new industries, highlighting its role in enhancing the quality of life for the public [2] - To achieve high-quality development, the sector must prioritize innovation and reform, leveraging modern information technologies to enhance the intelligence of transportation systems [2] Group 3 - High-quality development in the transportation sector also requires a commitment to green development, with a focus on achieving carbon peak targets and promoting low-carbon transportation methods [3] - The industry is encouraged to adopt a philosophy of ecological priority and green development, integrating environmental protection into all aspects of transportation [3] - There is a call for structural adjustments within the transportation sector to promote green travel and the use of new energy, alongside efforts to enhance the management of aging infrastructure [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of promoting the sustainable, healthy, and high-quality development of the private economy as a major long-term policy of the state [1] - As of July 4, there are 11,842 projects being promoted to private capital with a total investment of 10.19 trillion yuan [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has organized the introduction of over 3,200 new projects to private capital, involving a total investment exceeding 3 trillion yuan, focusing on key areas such as transportation, energy, and new infrastructure [3][4] Group 2 - The implementation of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" since May 20 aims to ensure fair competition and promote investment financing, allowing private economic organizations to participate equally in various sectors [3] - The number of items in the "Market Access Negative List (2025 Edition)" has been reduced from 117 to 106, further relaxing market access restrictions [4] - Local governments have recently published project lists for private capital, with Beijing releasing 119 key projects totaling approximately 124.4 billion yuan, and Henan Province announcing 75 major projects with a total investment of 33 billion yuan [5][6] Group 3 - The current wave of project promotion signals a deepening of market-oriented reforms and optimization of resource allocation, aiming to attract private enterprises to enhance project construction and operational efficiency [7] - The focus on attracting private capital is particularly significant in areas such as technological innovation and new infrastructure, where private investment is seen as a crucial driver for industrial upgrading and high-quality economic development [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The growth rate of the real - sector debt is expected to decline, and the government aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio. The large - scale debt resolution is beneficial for the overall economy [1][17]. - In the short term, the stock - bond ratio may fluctuate, but in the long run, it tends to favor bonds. The stock style tends to favor value stocks, and the bond configuration window is open, but the trading space is limited [16][22]. - During the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. The recommended investment portfolio includes the Dividend Index (40% position), the Shanghai 50 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [7][16][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In May 2025, the real - sector debt growth rate was 8.9%, down from 9.0% previously. It is expected to decline to around 8% by the end of the year. The government debt growth rate is expected to rise to 15.3% in June and then decline to around 12.5% by the end of the year. The money market has been loosening recently, but it is unlikely to remain so [1][17][18]. - **Asset Side**: The physical volume data in May was weaker than in April. The annual nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It remains to be seen whether this will be the central target for the next 1 - 2 years [5][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money market continued to loosen. The stock market was bullish, and the bond market was stable. The stock - bond ratio favored stocks, but the equity style shifted to value stocks. The short - and long - term bond yields were relatively stable [6][21]. - In the long run, during the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors bonds, and the equity style favors value stocks. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly higher cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets [7][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.5%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, steel, building materials, banks, pharmaceutical biology, and comprehensive sectors had the largest increases, while computer, non - bank finance, beauty care, transportation, and commercial retail sectors had the largest declines [28]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of July 4, the top five crowded industries were electronics, computer, pharmaceutical biology, power equipment, and machinery equipment, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, petroleum and petrochemical, coal, and real estate. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, public utilities, electronics, machinery equipment, and building materials, while the top five with decreased crowding were non - bank finance, computer, banks, national defense and military industry, and automobiles. - The average daily trading volume of the whole A - share market slightly decreased compared to last week. Steel, building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, pharmaceutical biology, and coal had the highest trading volume growth rates [30][31]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, steel, banks, building materials, pharmaceutical biology, and media had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while computer, non - bank finance, beauty care, transportation, and commercial retail had the largest declines. - As of July 4, 2025, industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history included coal, petroleum and petrochemical, transportation, beauty care, and consumer electronics [35][37]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - **External Demand**: It generally recovered. The global manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 to 50.3 in June, and most major economies' PMIs increased. The CCFI index decreased by 1.92% week - on - week. Port cargo throughput increased. South Korea's export growth rate rose from - 1.3% in May to 4.3% in June, and Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 21% in April to 20.7% in May [39]. - **Domestic Demand**: The second - hand housing price remained flat last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. Highway truck traffic increased. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries rebounded in May and continued to rise in June. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, new - home trading volume was at a historical low, and second - hand home trading volume declined seasonally [39]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the first week of July (June 30 - July 4), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. As of July 4, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.55 trillion yuan, slightly down from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [55]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - During the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. Dividend - type stocks should generally have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good earnings, and survival. - Based on these characteristics and the under - allocation situation in the public fund quarterly reports, the recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemical, and transportation [9][59].

Group 1 - The North Exchange's 50 Index increased by 2.73% in June 2025, outperforming the Sci-Tech Innovation Board but lagging behind the Growth Enterprise Market [3][6][11] - In the first half of 2025, the North Exchange's 50 Index surged by 39%, significantly outperforming other major indices, while the Specialized and New Index rose by 49% [3][6][11] - The top-performing sectors in June 2025 included oil and petrochemicals, media, and transportation, with notable companies achieving substantial gains [11][15][17] Group 2 - A total of 31 companies saw their stock prices rise by 20% or more in June 2025, with seven companies exceeding 40% growth, primarily in machinery and petrochemical sectors [15][16] - The overall price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for North Exchange A-shares reached 52x as of June 30, 2025, which is 141% of the Growth Enterprise Market's valuation and 91% of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's valuation [21][30] - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable long-term growth and unique production capabilities, high-end manufacturing, and consumer sectors, as well as recent hot themes like defense and low-altitude economy [27][30] Group 3 - The trading volume on the North Exchange decreased to 269.90 billion shares in June 2025, with a slight drop in daily trading value to around 304 billion yuan [17][18] - The average daily turnover rate for the North Exchange was 69% in June 2025, down from 77% in May [17][19] - The report indicates that the North Exchange's market is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a cautious approach [27][30] Group 4 - The report highlights the upcoming earnings disclosures for 23 companies in mid-August 2025, indicating a focus on companies with expected strong Q2 performance [28][30] - The North Exchange is in a normalization process for new stock issuances, with one company scheduled for IPO review next week [45]

Domestic Highlights - Xiamen has launched the "ESG Report Verification Cost Compensation Insurance," aiming to enhance ESG disclosure and verification coverage in the region[12] - The Xiamen Free Trade Zone has introduced 632 innovative measures, with 153 being national firsts, to promote ESG standards and practices[12] International Developments - The European Commission proposed amendments to the European Climate Law, targeting a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 compared to 1990 levels[3] - The proposal includes mechanisms like carbon credit allowances to alleviate pressures in achieving these reduction targets[3] ESG Financial Products Tracking - As of July 5, 2025, China has issued 3,605 ESG bonds, with a total outstanding amount of 5.52 trillion RMB, where green bonds account for 61.53% of the total[22] - In the past month, 41 ESG bonds were issued, raising 39.8 billion RMB, while the total issuance over the past year reached 1,007 bonds worth 1.1758 trillion RMB[22] Public Fund Insights - The market has 902 existing ESG products, with a total net asset value of 1,055.066 billion RMB, where ESG strategy products represent 52.98% of the total[34] - No new ESG public funds were issued in the past month, but 236 funds were launched in the last year, totaling 170.639 billion units[34] Banking Wealth Management - There are 965 existing ESG products in the banking sector, with pure ESG products making up 55.85% of the total[40] - In the last month, 12 new ESG products were issued, primarily focused on pure ESG and environmental protection[40] Index Performance - As of July 4, 2025, major ESG indices, except for the Wind All A Sustainable ESG, outperformed the market, with the 300 ESG Leading Index showing the highest increase of 1.87%[41] - Over the past year, the Huazheng ESG Leading Index had the largest growth at 17.59%, while the Shenzhen ESG 300 Index increased by 13.3%[41] Expert Opinions - UNEP FI's Butch Bacani emphasized the insurance industry's role in managing climate-related risks and supporting sustainable industrial transitions[8] - The need for a comprehensive asset-liability perspective was highlighted to align insurance and investment efforts towards building resilient and carbon-neutral communities[8] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected ESG development, delays in the dual carbon strategy, and insufficient policy advancements[43]

Group 1 - The establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Colombia marks its 45th anniversary, with Colombia officially joining the high-quality co-construction of the "Belt and Road" initiative in May [2] - Bilateral trade between China and Colombia is projected to exceed $19.3 billion in 2024, representing a growth of over 1900 times compared to the initial years of diplomatic relations [2] - Colombia aims to enhance agricultural exports to China and seeks to attract more Chinese investments in agriculture, technology, and ecological protection [2] Group 2 - Chinese companies are involved in constructing the Bogotá Metro Line 1, which is the largest infrastructure project in Colombia's history [3] - A new shipping route connecting Shanghai, Peru's Chancay Port, and Colombia's Buenaventura Port was launched in February, further promoting economic cooperation and job creation in Colombia [3] - There is significant potential for agricultural technology cooperation between China and Colombia, particularly in the processing of specialty agricultural products like coffee and cocoa [3] Group 3 - The China-Latin America Forum, which has been operational for 10 years, serves as a crucial platform for regional integration and cooperation between Latin American countries and China [4] - Strengthening collaboration between Latin America and China can enhance the representation and voice of the Global South in global governance [4] - The relationship between Latin America and China is expected to deepen, with ongoing efforts to promote development agendas and enhance global dialogue [4]

Group 1: Service Consumption Comparison - China's service consumption ratio is not low compared to countries with a GDP below $25,000, averaging 53.8% in 2019, while countries below this threshold average 46.4%[28] - In contrast, China's service consumption ratio is lower than the average of 56.3% for countries with a GDP above $25,000[28] - Overall, China's consumption rate is 39.3%, which is significantly lower than the average of 55.2% for the 43 countries analyzed[5] Group 2: Consumption Structure Insights - China's household consumption rate is composed of 21.1% service consumption and 18.2% goods consumption, both lower than the averages of 28.4% and 26.8% respectively for the 43 countries[5] - The largest discrepancy in consumption structure is in "other goods and services," where China stands at 2.4% compared to the 43-country average of 10.6%[34] - Housing services in China account for 23.4% of total consumption, with self-owned housing rental equivalence at 15.1%, higher than the 12.5% average of the 43 countries[44] Group 3: Education and Healthcare Spending - Education spending in China is significantly higher at 8.4% compared to the 43-country average of 1.4%, indicating a strong emphasis on education[50] - Healthcare spending in China is also elevated at 6.4%, compared to the average of 2.7% for the 43 countries, ranking second globally[63] - Private healthcare expenditure in China is 6.0%, surpassing the 4.6% average of the 43 countries[63] Group 4: Transportation and Entertainment Expenditure - Transportation costs in China are lower, with transportation fees at 1.7% compared to the 2.6% average of the 43 countries, attributed to lower public transport prices[74] - Entertainment consumption is notably low in China, with cultural and entertainment services at only 0.6%, compared to the 3.4% average of the 43 countries[80] - Despite low entertainment spending, tourism consumption in China is relatively high at 1.2%, slightly above the 1.1% average of the 43 countries[80]

| 家用电 | 15.88 | -2.77 | 2.07 | 0.03 | -3.89 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 器 | | | | | | | 社会服 | 13.50 | 11.98 | 2.99 | -0.20 | -4.08 | | 务 | | | | | | | 环保 | 18.96 | 11.58 | 2.12 | -1.03 | -4.59 | | 医药生 物 | 68.04 | -1.48 | 2.49 | 0.39 | -5.73 | | 通信 | 32.51 | 17.15 | 1.87 | -0.85 | -15.10 | | 汽车 | 45.27 | -0.21 | 2.09 | -0.53 | -17.97 | | 基础化 工 | 71.27 | 1.70 | 2.66 | -1.22 | -21.74 | | 机械设 | 65.11 | -6.74 | 2.40 | -0.97 | -28.36 | | 备 | | | | | | | 国防军 | 32.96 | -12.68 | 3.05 | -0.91 | -29.30 | ...