Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The market sentiment for glass and soda ash is pessimistic, with both showing an oscillating downward trend. Glass production is decreasing, but due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing sectors, inventory is piling up. Soda ash production has declined due to increased plant maintenance, but the supply remains abundant, and the demand improvement space is limited [1] - Market analysis - Glass: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, with strong pessimism. In the spot market, the Shahe market was weak, the East China market had a narrow - range adjustment, the Central China market's prices were weak, the South China market's prices were stable for now, and the Northeast market remained unchanged. Overall, the shipment was average, mainly for external sales [1] - Soda ash: The soda ash futures market oscillated weakly yesterday. In the spot market, the domestic soda ash market was stable with oscillations, and the transaction prices were flexible. The daily production of soda ash decreased, with an operating rate of 75.45% [1] - Supply - demand and logic - Glass: Recently, glass production has been on a downward trend. However, due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing sectors, the replenishment intensity and sustainability are weak, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. The high - temperature and rainy season is unfavorable for glass storage, and enterprises may have a stronger intention to reduce prices for inventory clearance [1] - Soda ash: Affected by increased plant maintenance, soda ash production has declined recently but remains in a loose state. Currently, the growth of the photovoltaic industry has slowed down, the demand improvement space for soda ash is limited, and the inventory clearance pressure is still large [1] - Strategy - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] Group 2: Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The market for silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is sluggish, with continuous increases in maintenance. The production of both is affected by industry profits and is at a low level, but the demand has certain resilience. The high inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers suppresses prices, while the low - level manganese ore port inventory supports the alloy cost. The ferrosilicon price is currently dragged down by costs [3] - Market analysis - Silicomanganese: The market expectation has been weak recently. A large - scale silicomanganese enterprise in Chongqing decided to shut down 2 furnaces for maintenance. The daily average production of silicomanganese this week was 22,065 tons, with a theoretical weekly production of 154,455 tons. The silicomanganese futures market oscillated strongly. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated, with few quotes. The price in the northern market was 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,650 - 5,750 yuan/ton [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market followed the black - goods sector, rising and then falling. In the spot market, the ferrosilicon market was weak, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,900 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand and logic - Silicomanganese: Affected by industry profits, silicomanganese production continues to decline and is at a low level over the years. The high pig - iron production maintains the demand for silicomanganese. The high inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers and registered warrants suppresses the price. However, the low - level manganese ore port inventory and the continuous decline in manganese ore prices support the alloy cost. Future attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore [3] - Ferrosilicon: In the context of enterprise losses, ferrosilicon production remains at a medium - low level. The high pig - iron production maintains the demand for ferrosilicon. The manufacturers' inventory is continuously decreasing, and the downstream enterprises' inventory is at a low level. The ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively abundant, and the short - term price is dragged down by costs. Future attention should be paid to the impact of electricity price changes and industrial policies on the black - goods sector [3] - Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂陆续公布检修计划，供给高位小幅下滑；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1325元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1318元/吨，基差为7元，期货贴 水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.13万吨，较前一周增加1.74%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 2、中美关 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: May 13, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On May 12, the main soda ash futures contract SA509 rebounded after hitting a bottom, with a closing price of 1,318 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.15%, and an increase in positions of 11,751 lots. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in Central China remained unchanged from the previous day. Soda ash production continued to rise, and demand increased. However, the supply side is at a high level year-on-year, and the downward pressure on prices is becoming more significant. New production capacity will be put into operation, further increasing supply pressure [8]. - The supply side of the glass market is showing a contraction trend, but it is difficult to form a large-scale cold repair wave in the short term. The peak demand season fell short of expectations, and with the approaching of the traditional off-season, market sentiment is pessimistic. The combination of复产 expectations and high inventory is suppressing futures prices. In the short term, the glass market lacks effective driving factors, and prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Trading Data on May 12**: The SA505 contract opened at 1,276 yuan/ton, closed at 1,291 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.69%, with a position of 0.31 million lots, a decrease of 796 lots. The SA509 contract opened at 1,299 yuan/ton, closed at 1,318 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.15%, with a position of 123.31 million lots, an increase of 11,751 lots. The FG505 contract opened at 1,044 yuan/ton, closed at 1,047 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.67%, with a position of 0.53 million lots, a decrease of 822 lots. The FG509 contract opened at 1,034 yuan/ton, closed at 1,045 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.28%, with a position of 133.57 million lots, a decrease of 2,299 lots [7]. - **Soda Ash Market**: The weekly production of soda ash in China reached 757,000 tons in the week of May 8, near the highest level this year, and the weekly operating load rate remained at 90%. As of May 8, the weekly enterprise inventory of heavy soda ash in China remained at 880,000 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. The supply side is at a high level year-on-year, and the downward pressure on prices is significant. Although some production line maintenance plans may have an impact on the supply rhythm in May, it is difficult to fundamentally reverse the oversupply situation [8]. - **Glass Market**: The supply side is showing a contraction trend, but it is difficult to form a large-scale cold repair wave in the short term due to cost and capacity limitations. The peak demand season fell short of expectations, and with the approaching of the traditional off-season, market sentiment is pessimistic. The combination of复产 expectations and high inventory is suppressing futures prices. In the short term, the glass market lacks effective driving factors, and prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Industry News - The market price of baking soda in Henan is stable. Jinshan's baking soda plant is under maintenance, and downstream users maintain a rigid procurement rhythm. The mainstream ex-factory price of food-grade baking soda is estimated at 1,200 - 1,260 yuan/ton [10]. - In May 2025, the weighted order days of domestic soda ash manufacturers' sample enterprises were 14.6 days, basically flat month-on-month. The operating load of the soda ash industry decreased in May, and the supply of goods decreased, but downstream demand was weak, and the enthusiasm for purchasing was not high, so new orders from soda ash manufacturers were average [10]. - Based on the period from 10:00 to 14:00 on the day, the average market price of 5mm large float glass in Shahe decreased by 0.21 yuan/square meter compared with the previous working day, with an average price of 14.77 yuan/square meter; the average price of 4.4mm small float glass decreased by 0.32 yuan/square meter, with an average price of 12.69 yuan/square meter. The Shahe float glass market continued to weaken over the weekend, and the futures price remained sluggish, with the market price center further moving down. Some spot-futures traders' shipments improved. The market basically stabilized today, and traders' selling prices were flexible [10]. - In April, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.619 million and 2.59 million units respectively, down 12.9% and 11.2% month-on-month, and up 8.9% and 9.8% year-on-year. Domestic automobile sales were 2.073 million units, down 13.9% month-on-month and up 11.7% year-on-year; automobile exports were 517,000 units, up 2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. In April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.251 million and 1.226 million units respectively, up 43.8% and 44.2% year-on-year, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 47.3% of the total sales of new vehicles [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [14][17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation has improved with the Sino - US talks making progress and the NDRC improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and planning to launch high - quality projects worth about 3 trillion yuan. For glass, on the supply side, the profit of glass made from natural gas, coal, and oil has slightly increased due to falling raw material costs, and production remains stable. On the demand side, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, and enterprise inventories have increased. The futures price is approaching the production cost, so cost support may work in the short term. For纯碱, the supply is decreasing slightly with some equipment maintenance, and downstream demand is lukewarm with more wait - and - see sentiment and small - scale destocking. It is recommended to temporarily observe both the 2509 contracts of纯碱 and glass [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the 纯碱 main contract is 1318 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract is 1045 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan. The 纯碱 main contract's open interest is 1233186 lots, up 11751 lots; the glass main contract's open interest is 1335775 lots, down 2299 lots. The net position of the top 20 in 纯碱 is - 197814, up 1356; the net position of the top 20 in glass is - 146540, up 43116. The 纯碱 exchange warehouse receipts are 3106 tons, down 237 tons; the glass exchange warehouse receipts are 2380 tons, up 115 tons. The 9 - 1 spread of 纯碱 is 13 yuan, up 14 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of glass is - 41 yuan, up 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of North China heavy 纯碱 is 1325 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price of Central China heavy 纯碱 is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of East China light 纯碱 is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China light 纯碱 is 1335 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1116 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the price of Central China glass sheets is 1170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 纯碱 basis is 7 yuan, up 2 yuan; the glass basis is 71 yuan, down 19 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The 纯碱 plant operating rate is 87.74%, down 0.93 percentage points; the float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.24%, down 0.61 percentage points. The in - production capacity of glass is 15.52 million tons/year, down 0.26 million tons; the number of in - production glass production lines is 222, down 3. The 纯碱 enterprise inventory is 170.07 million tons, down 0.06 million tons; the glass enterprise inventory is 67560000 weight boxes, up 2571000 weight boxes [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new real - estate construction area is 129964600 square meters, up 63824600 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate completion area is 130602700 square meters, up 42962700 square meters [2] 3.5 Industry News - The central bank broadens the use scope of re - loans for affordable housing. There are housing purchase subsidies in Shanghai Yangpu, housing development plans in Beijing, and support for housing provident fund loans in Beijing. In April, the second - hand housing transactions in Dongguan increased by 36% year - on - year. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a meeting to support the development of the private economy. The average rent of 50 cities in April decreased slightly month - on - month. In April, the contracted sales amount of China Merchants Shekou was 14.764 billion yuan. In April, about 71.7 billion yuan of the newly issued 176.3 billion yuan special bonds were invested in the real - estate related fields. From January to April, the total transaction amount of the national foreclosed housing market was 83.14 billion yuan. Shanghai released the list of the fifth batch of residential land to be transferred this year. In April, the contract sales amount of Jianye Real Estate was 600 million yuan, down 20.2% year - on - year. As of April 30, 2025, the contract sales amount of Shimao Group in four months was about 9.07 billion yuan. In April, the contracted area of Shoukai Co., Ltd. was 108400 square meters, down 24.92% month - on - month [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the chemical industry, with a focus on defensive strategies and specific sectors such as compound fertilizers and domestic substitutes [2]. Core Insights - The chemical market has shown resilience, with the Shenwan Chemical Index rising by 2.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.07% [10]. - Key themes in the market include strong performance in military and robotics materials, while companies with poor Q1 results are under pressure [1]. - The report highlights the impact of tariff negotiations, particularly between the US and other countries, affecting trade dynamics and inventory levels in the US [1]. - AI demand is robust, with leading companies like AMD reporting significant revenue growth, indicating a strong market for AI-related products [2]. - OPEC's decision to increase production raises questions about the sustainability of oil prices, with mixed signals from supply and demand factors [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Brent crude futures averaged $62.05 per barrel, down 2.02% week-on-week, while WTI futures averaged $59.04 per barrel, down 1% [10]. - The basic chemical sector outperformed the index, while the petrochemical sector lagged [10]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included fluorochemicals (5.02% increase), while coal chemicals saw a slight decline [11]. Recent Views from the Chemical Team - The tire industry is experiencing a decline in production rates, with full steel tire operating rates at 44.8%, down 11.5% week-on-week [27]. - The sweetener market, particularly for sucralose, is expected to improve due to reduced supply and increased demand from the beverage industry [28]. - The dye market remains stable, with prices holding steady despite weak demand from the textile industry [30]. Key Events - Significant diplomatic meetings are scheduled, including high-level economic dialogues between China and the US, which may influence trade policies [3]. - OPEC+ confirmed an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day, raising concerns about compliance among member countries [3]. Price Movements - The report provides detailed price movements for various chemical products, indicating fluctuations and trends in the market [26][29]. - Specific products like DAP and titanium dioxide are experiencing price adjustments due to supply and demand dynamics [31][32]. Future Outlook - The report suggests a cautious approach to investment, focusing on sectors with defensive characteristics and potential for growth amid market volatility [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the basic chemical industry [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The energy price center is expected to decline year-on-year in 2024, but terminal demand remains weak, leading to a bottoming out of chemical price spreads. The average price of Brent crude oil in 2024 is projected to be $80.93 per barrel, down 2% year-on-year [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, oil prices stabilized, and post-holiday terminal replenishment demand improved, leading to a recovery in basic chemical profitability. The report highlights a "V"-shaped bottom reversal in market conditions [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that while terminal demand was weak in 2024, certain sectors like chlor-alkali, compound fertilizers, and nylon saw significant performance improvements [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The chemical sector experienced a "W"-shaped trend in 2024, with construction projects peaking and then declining. The overall revenue for the chemical sector in 2024 was 2.81% higher year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 2.68% [2][3][36]. - In Q1 2025, the chemical sector's revenue reached 496.9 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 9% to 32.8 billion yuan [2][3][41]. 2. Sector Performance - The report identifies specific sectors with improved profitability in Q1 2025, including fluorochemicals, food and feed additives, pesticides, potassium fertilizers, and compound fertilizers [2][3]. - The report notes that the overall asset-liability ratio for the chemical industry is 49.3%, indicating a historical low, and highlights a significant slowdown in capital expenditure growth [2][3][43]. 3. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on traditional cyclical companies with strong fundamentals, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy, as well as specific sectors like fluorochemicals and agricultural chemicals [2][3][4]. - It also highlights growth opportunities in semiconductor materials and panel materials, emphasizing companies with low valuations and strong performance potential [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward, with the main contract SA2509 closing 3.48% lower than the previous week at 1,305 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe also decreased. Supply is expected to decline, but demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average, and inventory is at a historical high. Overall, the soda ash supply is high and demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Weekly View - The main contract SA2509 of soda ash futures closed at 1,305 yuan/ton, down 3.48% from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,325 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous week [2]. - Some enterprises are undergoing maintenance, and production profit has rebounded. The expected output next week is 680,000 tons, with an operating rate of about 80%, showing a downward trend in supply [2]. - Downstream demand from float and photovoltaic glass is average, with rigid demand replenishment and low raw material reserve intention. As of May 8, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7013 million tons, up 1.74% from the previous week, remaining at a historical high [2]. Impact Factors Summary - **Likely to be favorable**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [6]. - **Likely to be unfavorable**: The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, and inventory, although continuously declining, is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7]. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,352 | 1,320 | - 32 | | Current Value | 1,305 | 1,325 | 20 | | Change Rate | - 3.48% | 0.38% | - 162.50% | [9] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,325 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous week [14]. - The profit of the combined soda process for heavy soda ash in East China was 195 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash in North China was - 29.60 yuan/ton, at a low level in the same period [17]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 87.74%, showing a stable recovery. The weekly output was 740,700 tons, including 407,900 tons of heavy soda ash, with output falling from a historical high [20][22]. - The production rate of heavy soda ash was 55.07% [24]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity, with new production capacity planned in each year. In 2023, the newly added capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with 600,000 tons actually put into production [25]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 96.07% [28]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 155,800 tons, and the operating rate of 75.24% continued to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [31]. - The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 91,000 tons, and production stabilized [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7013 million tons, including 872,200 tons of heavy soda ash, at a high level in the same period [37]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [38].

纯碱行业检修预期再掀市场波澜。纯碱期货价格在创新低下行后近日再度走强，联动现货端氛围好转。 但在笔者看来，本轮检修减量对市场供需的实际冲击较弱，同时期现商本轮采购后提升了现货持货量， 也变相强化了后市的定价话语权，阶段性减量检修仍难改纯碱行业供需错配的格局。 从隆众资讯和卓创资讯发布的碱厂检修计划看，5月检修安排较为密集：江苏实联120万吨产能，预计5 月6日起检修25天；河南金山5月初部分装置轮检，预计10天；江苏井神5月7日起1台锅炉有检修计划； 青海昆仑150万吨产能，计划5月18日起检修5天；山东海化部分装置、江苏华昌70万吨产能5月存检修计 划，具体未定。后续徐州丰成60万吨产能、江苏昆山80万吨产能检修或在6月执行。以目前5月减量计划 看，涉及减量规模或在20余万吨，周度平均影响约6万余吨。近两周产量水平约在75.5万吨附近，按目 前基数减量后，5月周产量均值或略高于3月实际水平。 近期厂家陆续公布未来检修计划，从检修性质看多为年度计划内检修。随着检修计划公布数量逐步增 多，市场开始预期后续检修集中减量可能带来现货压力阶段性缓解，进而带动厂家库存下降。部分碱厂 此前为促进签单有价格调降动作，盘面价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1纯碱市场 - The industry meeting has announced a production - cut and price - support plan. Initial maintenance in early May has been basically implemented, and the scope of maintenance is expected to expand in the middle and late May, leading to a continuous reduction in production. However, the futures market has initially shown a weak feedback, and the positive feedback is not strong. The pressure on soda ash plants has not been significantly relieved. The trend remains bearish, and further changes in maintenance need to be observed [8][9]. - The strategy suggests paying attention to the new order transaction prices, the implementation of maintenance and price - support measures. After taking profits from closing short positions, one can participate again by shorting at high prices when the price goes up [9]. 2.2 Glass market - From a valuation perspective, it has entered an ideal layout range, but it is necessary to wait for the improvement of market sentiment. Follow - up should track the changes in production lines, observe the digestion progress of low - price futures and spot sources, and the changes in the spot volume and price sentiment in the main production areas [171]. - The strategy recommends a long - position approach for far - month contracts at low prices [171]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Market Review - **Supply**: The total production is 74.07 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.79 million tons. After the holiday, maintenance has gradually started, and production is expected to decline from the high level. The new production capacity of Lianyungang Soda Plant is expected to produce trial products this month [8]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for soda ash is 71.16 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.58 million tons. The terminal has replenished inventory at low prices, and manufacturers still have some forward - delivery orders [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash plants is 170.13 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.91 million tons. The social inventory is 37.00 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.00 million tons. Under the expectation of production cuts, the plant inventory is expected to decrease in the short term, while the middle - stream inventory may stop falling and rise [8]. - **Valuation**: The cost and profit of ammonia - soda process and combined - soda process are relatively stable. The basis of the market price in Shahe is 28 yuan [8]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - **Production**: The monthly production data of soda ash from 2020 to 2025 shows certain seasonal fluctuations [15]. - **Import and Export**: The current import volume is 0.32 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.23 million tons; the export volume is 19.43 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 million tons. The import dependence is 0.11 [16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Futures and Spot Price Comparison**: Charts show the price trends of glass futures, Shahe heavy - soda ash market price, soda ash futures, and Shahe 5mm glass plate price from 2020 to 2025 [24][25][26][27]. - **Soda Ash Contract Basis**: Charts present the basis trends of Shahe heavy - soda ash 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2022 to 2026 [29][30][31]. - **Soda Ash Contract Inter - period Spread**: Charts show the spread trends of soda ash 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [33][34][35]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, 05 contracts and the spot spread from 2021 to 2025 [37][39][40]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - **Shahe Region**: The current market price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe is 1330 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 920 yuan/ton [45]. - **Regional Price of Heavy and Light Soda Ash**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions have different degrees of changes. For example, the price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe has decreased, while the prices in some other regions remain stable [49]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - **Start - up and Shutdown**: Some soda ash plants are currently under maintenance or operating at reduced loads, and many plants have planned maintenance in May and June [87]. - **Start - up Rate**: The current domestic start - up rate of soda ash is 87.74%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93 percentage points [88]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of ammonia - soda process and combined - soda process are relatively stable, and the prices of related raw materials such as synthetic ammonia also show certain trends [98][111]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - **Demand for Heavy - Soda Ash**: The demand for heavy - soda ash is mainly affected by the production of float glass and photovoltaic glass. The current daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has decreased slightly [134][135][137]. - **Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio**: The weekly apparent consumption and production - sales ratio of soda ash show certain fluctuations [140]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Price**: The market average prices of 3.2mm and 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass have certain trends from 2021 to 2025 [144][145]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: The current inventory of soda ash enterprises is 170.13 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.91 million tons [149]. - **Regional Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash in different regions shows different trends [156][157][158]. 3.8 Glass Market Review - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass is 155,825 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1400 tons. The weekly production is 109.08 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.98 million tons [169]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption is 95.73 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 16.75 million tons. Market demand sentiment is weak, and the apparent demand has declined [169]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 337.80 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 12.86 million tons. Weak demand has led to a short - term increase in factory inventory [169]. - **Valuation**: The costs and profits of different production lines of glass are relatively stable. The spread between East China and Central China is 200 yuan, and the basis of the 5mm glass plate in Shahe is 162 yuan [169]. 3.9 Monthly Supply and Demand of Glass - **Production**: The monthly production data of flat glass from 2020 to 2025 shows certain seasonal fluctuations [176]. - **Import and Export**: The import and export volumes of float glass also show certain trends [178][181]. 3.10 Basis and Spread of Glass - **Futures and Spot Price Comparison**: Charts show the price trends of Shahe 5mm glass plate, glass futures, Shahe heavy - soda ash market price, and soda ash futures from 2020 to 2025 [185][187][188][189]. - **Glass Contract Basis**: Charts present the basis trends of the 01, 09, and 05 contracts of Shahe 5mm glass plate from 2021 to 2026 [191][192][194]. - **Glass Contract Inter - period Spread**: Charts show the spread trends of glass 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 contracts from 2009 to 2026 [196][197][198]. - **Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, 05 contracts and the spot spread from 2021 to 2025 [201][202][203]. 3.11 Glass Market Price - **Regional Price of 5mm Float Glass**: The prices of 5mm float glass in different regions have different degrees of changes. For example, the prices in Shahe have decreased, while the prices in some other regions remain stable [207]. - **Price of 5mm Glass Plate**: The prices of 5mm glass plates in different regions and different manufacturers also show certain trends [219][221][223].

Group 1 - The main contract for soda ash futures closed at 1305 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.76% [1] - Soda ash inventory reached 1.7013 million tons, an increase of 29,100 tons or 1.74% week-on-week [2] - Production costs for ammonia-soda method in North China decreased to 1300 CNY/ton, down 420 CNY/ton or 24.4% from last October's peak [2] Group 2 - Some soda ash production facilities are operating at reduced capacity, with Tangshan Sanyou and Shandong Haitan both running at about 70% [2] - Short-term supply tightness may arise due to maintenance plans, but long-term oversupply remains a concern [3] - The price of soda ash futures may experience a brief rebound in May, but sustained upward momentum is lacking due to weak demand and high inventory levels [3]