1、美股周一收盘，道指初步收跌0.09%，标普500指数跌0.16%，纳指跌0.59%。博通跌5.5%，特斯拉涨 3.5%，Strategy跌超8%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌2.17%，百度跌近5%，阿里巴巴跌超3%。 2、美油主 力合约收跌132%，报56.68美元/桶；黄金冲高回落微涨，钯金单日大涨5.51%领涨贵金属，现货钯金日 内大涨6.00%报1583.16美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货涨3.25%报64.020美元/盎司，现货铂金涨2.48%报 1790.52美元/盎司，现货白银涨3.28%报63.99美元/盎司。 3、美联储威廉姆斯表示，劳动力市场降温和 通胀风险缓解，为美联储上周降息的决定提供了依据。威廉姆斯首次就上周的降息决定公开置评，称越 来越相信物价上涨将继续放缓，通胀暂时停留在美联储目标之上，但随着关税影响消化可能继续下降， 就业状况逐步降温支持降息决定。 4、美联储理事米兰表示，美联储政策立场过于紧缩，通胀前景良好 且劳动力市场出现预警信号，预计租金涨幅回落将缓解住房通胀，服务业通胀难面临上行压力，主张更 快放松政策接近中性立场。 5、美国总统特朗普表示，与欧洲领导人就俄乌冲突进行长时 ...

影响股市利好与利空消息 1、工业和信息化部15日正式公布我国首批L3级有条件自动驾驶车型准入许可，两款分别适配城市拥 堵、高速路段的车型将在北京、重庆指定区域开展上路试点，标志着我国L3级自动驾驶从测试阶段迈 入商业化应用的关键一步。 2、当地时间12月14日，一名X用户拍摄到一辆特斯拉Model Y在奥斯汀街头行驶的画面，车内似乎空无 一人，甚至没有配备安全监督员。特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克晚些时候对此回应称："测试正在进行 中，车内没有人。"马斯克上周在一场活动上透露，特斯拉Robotaxi将在三周内取消安全员，实现真正 无人驾驶载客。 3、自12月上旬开始，磷酸铁锂正极材料生产厂商掀起集体提价潮。近日，从部分磷酸铁锂头部企业等 多个渠道了解到，在即将迎来2026年之际，多家磷酸铁锂企业开始和客户商谈价格，一些头部企业提出 了提价诉求，涨幅集中在2000~3000元/吨之间。 4、国家电网公司党组召开会议，会议强调，加快建设新型电力系统和新型能源体系，助力如期实现碳 达峰。 宏观新闻 1、12月16日出版的第24期《求是》杂志将发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平的重 要文章《扩大内需是战略 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market is expected to remain volatile and consolidate in the short term and is likely to warm up and rebound near the year - end. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation for both offense and defense. Short - term market adjustments due to liquidity disturbances can be seen as layout opportunities. The focus of convertible bond layout should be on two main lines: defensive bottom - position varieties and technology - growth sectors with policy support and industrial trends. Additionally, consumer - related convertible bonds are also worthy of attention [2][4][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Convertible Bond Weekly Strategy - **Stock Market Performance**: From December 8th to 12th, the A - share market showed a volatile and differentiated pattern, with the growth style significantly outperforming. The ChiNext Index had the best performance, rising 2.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84%, and the Shanghai Composite Index slightly fell 0.34%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased, with the daily average trading volume reaching 1.95 trillion yuan. Technology - growth sectors represented by commercial aerospace, CPO, and controlled nuclear fusion led the gains, while traditional sectors such as coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and real estate performed poorly [6] - **Convertible Bond Market Performance**: The convertible bond market rose slightly, and the valuation continued to recover. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.20%, and the convertible bond equal - weighted index rose 0.09%, outperforming the convertible bond underlying stock equal - weighted index which fell 0.94%. The market internal structure was highly differentiated, with high - price, low - premium convertible bonds performing relatively well, while double - low and low - price convertible bonds pulled back. Small - cap and large - cap convertible bonds rose, while mid - cap convertible bonds fell. The median convertible bond parity price decreased 1.61% to 99.60 yuan, the median convertible bond price decreased 0.63% to 130.78 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate increased 1.21 percentage points to 32.71% [9] - **Market Outlook**: In the second half of December, the convertible bond market is expected to remain volatile and consolidate in the short term and may warm up and rebound near the year - end. After the Fed's interest - rate cut in December, the positive policy tone of the Central Economic Work Conference for 2026, and the policies to promote the entry of long - and medium - term funds into the market are expected to bring incremental funds. The market is likely to be mainly volatile in the short term, with limited room for a sharp decline. As institutional funds start to plan for 2026 at the end of the month, market sentiment is expected to improve, and trading volume may gradually pick up. A cross - year offensive is expected to start near the end of December [11][12] - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to have a balanced allocation for both offense and defense. Short - term market adjustments due to liquidity disturbances can be seen as layout opportunities. The focus of convertible bond layout should be on two main lines: one is the bottom - position varieties with defensive attributes, such as relatively low - price convertible bonds below 125 yuan, or large - cap convertible bonds or financial convertible bonds with sound fundamentals; the other is the technology - growth sectors with policy support and industrial trends, such as commercial aerospace, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors. After adjustments, some convertible bonds in these sectors have regained elasticity and are more suitable for offensive strategies. In addition, after three years of adjustment, the consumer sector has low valuations and positions, and consumer - related convertible bonds are worthy of attention due to the year - end consumption peak season and potential policy stimuli [12]

人民财讯12月15日电，通程控股（000419）12月15日公告，公司持股16.91%的参股子公司湖南长银五 八消费金融股份有限公司(以下简称"长银消金")拟实施2025年增资扩股，公司拟不参与此次增资。同 时，公司拟拟将持有的长银消金1.14亿股股份转让给长银消金的控股股东长沙银行（601577），转让价 格为每股1.8877元，转让金额总计为2.15亿元。本次增资及股权转让完成后，公司持有长银消金的股份 总数变更为7600万股，持股比例为3.91%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the performance comparison between A-shares and U.S. stocks, indicating that A-shares may not underperform U.S. stocks as commonly perceived [4][6]. - From 2005 to December 5, 2025, the S&P 500 and CSI 300 indices increased by 748.25% and 574.74% respectively, translating to annualized returns of 10.72% and 9.52%, showing that the performance gap is not as significant as believed [7][9]. - The overall growth rate of A-share listed companies from 2005 to present is higher than that of U.S. stocks when excluding valuation changes [11]. Group 2 - The industry distribution of listed companies in both markets is gradually converging, with A-shares showing increasing exposure to technology sectors [12][18]. - The combined weight of Information Technology and Communication Services in the CSI 300 is 22%, while in the broader Chinese equity market, it reaches 30.2%, indicating a shift towards technology [16][18]. - The industry distribution in the Chinese market has evolved significantly since 2011, reflecting the rapid transformation of the Chinese economy [18]. Group 3 - The volatility of A-shares is notably higher than that of U.S. stocks, which affects investor behavior and overall investment experience [21][22]. - To improve the investment experience in A-shares, reducing market volatility is deemed essential, rather than solely focusing on enhancing the fundamentals of listed companies [23][24]. - Recent regulatory measures aim to lower the volatility of A-shares, indicating a potential for improved investor experience in the future [25]. Group 4 - Overall, the long-term performance of A-shares is not significantly inferior to that of U.S. stocks, but the volatility in A-shares has historically led to varied investor experiences [27]. - The trend towards decreasing volatility in A-shares is expected to continue, potentially leading to better investment outcomes for broad market indices [27].

Group 1: Autonomous Driving - China's first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicles has received approval for road testing in designated areas of Beijing and Chongqing, marking a significant step towards commercialization [1] - The two approved models include an electric sedan capable of 50 km/h in congested traffic and another capable of 80 km/h on highways and urban expressways, both limited to specific routes [1] Group 2: Financial Sector Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has initiated reforms to enhance the inclusivity and attractiveness of the capital market, focusing on the implementation of the "1+6" reform measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [3][10] - The CSRC aims to promote high-quality development in the private equity fund sector and expedite the pilot program for commercial real estate REITs [10] - A new round of corporate governance initiatives will be launched to encourage quality companies to increase dividend payouts and share buybacks [11] Group 3: Company Financials - Cambrian Technology plans to use approximately 2.78 billion yuan from its capital reserve to offset accumulated losses, with the aim of bringing its negative retained earnings to zero by the end of 2024 [8] - TCL Technology intends to acquire a 10.7656% stake in Shenzhen Huaxing Semiconductor for 6.045 billion yuan, increasing its ownership from 84.21% to 94.98%, to enhance its competitiveness in the semiconductor display industry [12] Group 4: Currency and Real Estate Market - The onshore and offshore RMB against the USD reached a 14-month high, with the onshore rate peaking at 7.0500 and the offshore rate at 7.046, indicating a favorable external environment for the RMB [13] - In November 2025, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 major cities in China showed a month-on-month decline, with first-tier cities experiencing a 0.4% decrease in new residential prices [14]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货螺纹钢年报 建筑需求疲软拖累，关注政策扰动供应 20251215 孙伟涛 0769-222110802 从业资格号：F0276620 交易咨询号：Z0014688 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 宏观：国内坚持稳中求进的工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策。继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度 宽松的货币政策。外部环境方面，海外贸易摩擦加剧对出口带来压力，但国内产业优势韧性尚可，出口向中高 端转化。全球降息预期虽受到各方面因素约束，美联储降息扩表仍有利于全球流动性。 u 供应：市场预计2026年粗钢产量进一步压减1.5%–2%，政策导向"支持先进、倒逼落后" ，电炉钢、氢冶金、 高端特钢项目享受差别化减量置换支持。行业反内卷将以减碳提质、绿色转型等形式进行约束 ...

美联储主席人选再生变数，沃什成为哈塞特的有力竞争对手。 市场预期哈塞特可能更大程度牺牲美联储独立 性满足特朗普政府降息诉求，相比之下沃什则更偏鹰派。 上周受到12月美联储议息会议偏鸽，叠加美国当周初次申请失业金人数跳升的影响，市场交易偏鸽，美债利率 震荡，美元下跌，人民币升值，黄金上涨。 美股方面， 上周标普500指数上涨0.45%，美联储降息叠加偏鸽表态支撑了市场。短期来看，强劲的盈利基础 和宽松的货币政策构成关键支撑，短期市场有望修复。中期来看，美股估值偏高，AI泡沫担忧和变现压力的 问题仍然存在，未来市场还将在高估值、降息、AI变现之间反复博弈。美股盈利增长仍是核心支撑，但估值 上升空间收窄。 维持对美股的标配，收益预期方面回落至与盈利增速相匹配。若市场出现10%-20%的回调，估值将回归合理区 间，可考虑加大配置力度。配置上适度分散化，在科技股之外，可以关注材料和工业板块。 美债方面， 短期可关注本周公布的11月非农数据、明年初美联储新任主席的提名情况。若非农差于预期，或 是提名的主席人选鸽派倾向浓厚，美债利率可能会进一步下行。趋势上维持利率中枢下移的观点不变，其中短 债将直接受益于美联储的降息和扩表 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - In November 2025, the economy showed a pattern of export improvement, investment stabilization, and consumption decline, reflecting the continued differentiation between the real - estate chain and non - real - estate chain. The market has gradually adapted to "de - real - estate" this year, and the continuous resilience of CPI and the improvement of corporate credit confirm the improvement of the economy's internal driving force. The long - term pessimistic expectations of the market for growth have been revised, and the technology chain dominates the market risk preference. Interest rates are becoming less sensitive to the real estate and economic fundamentals. In the past two weeks, the bond market has shown "bearish characteristics", and in the short term, the spread market between individual bonds can be grasped [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Production - In November, industrial production slowed down marginally, with the production of downstream consumer goods manufacturing improving. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value continued to decline by 0.1 pct to 4.8%. In terms of structure, the production of the mining industry accelerated, while the growth of the manufacturing and water, electricity, and gas supply industries slowed down. The year - on - year growth rates of the three major sectors were 6.3%, 4.6%, and 4.3% respectively, with the growth rates changing by +1.8 pct, - 0.3 pct, and - 1.1 pct compared with the previous month [2]. - Compared with the previous month, the production of the downstream consumer goods manufacturing industry improved, and the production of the mid - stream equipment manufacturing industry slowed down overall. The year - on - year industrial added values of industries such as pharmaceuticals, electronic equipment, textiles, and food all improved compared with the previous month. The growth rates of industrial added values of mid - stream industries such as automobiles and transportation equipment declined from high levels, with the year - on - year growth rates in November both at 11.9%, down 4.9 pct and 3.3 pct respectively from the previous month. In terms of absolute growth rates, the growth rates of chemical raw materials and products (6.7%), transportation equipment (11.9%), automobiles (11.9%), electronic equipment (9.2%), and general equipment (7.5%) were significantly higher than the overall level [1] - The service industry production index declined slightly. In November, the service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.4 pct compared with the previous month. In terms of structure, the prosperity of producer services such as information technology, leasing, and finance was higher than the overall service industry and maintained strong resilience [1] Investment - Driven by the improvement of manufacturing investment, the decline of the fixed - asset investment growth rate narrowed. In November, the year - on - year decline of the fixed - asset investment completion amount was 11.98%, and the decline narrowed by 0.24 pct compared with the previous month. Among the three major sub - items, the manufacturing investment growth rate was the most resilient. In November, the growth rates of manufacturing investment and infrastructure investment recovered. The growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate investment were - 4.5%, - 11.9%, and - 30.3% respectively, with changes of +2.2 pct, +0.2 pct, and - 7.3 pct compared with the previous month. Among manufacturing sub - industries, the investment growth rates of chemical raw material product processing, non - ferrous metal smelting, and general equipment recovered significantly compared with the previous month [3] - The year - on - year decline of the real - estate sales area narrowed, and the sales price declined at an accelerated pace. In November, the year - on - year growth rates of commercial housing sales volume and sales area were - 25.1% and - 17.3% respectively, with changes of - 0.8 pct and +1.5 pct compared with the previous month. The unit price calculated from the sales volume and sales area decreased by - 9.5% year - on - year, further dropping 2.6 pct compared with the previous month. In terms of investment, the year - on - year decline of the real - estate new construction and completion areas stabilized and narrowed. In November, the year - on - year growth rates of the real - estate new construction area and completion area were - 27.6% and - 25.5% respectively, and the year - on - year declines narrowed by 1.9 pct and 2.7 pct respectively compared with the previous month, and the overall situation was still at the bottom - grinding stage [3] Consumption - Consumption declined more than expected, and the resilience of catering consumption was still stronger than that of commodities. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 1.3%, a decrease of 1.6 pct compared with the previous month, and also lower than the market consensus expectation of 2.93% in the WIND statistics. Among them, the year - on - year growth rates of catering revenue and commodity retail were 3.2% and 1% respectively, with changes of - 0.6 pct and - 1.8 pct compared with the previous month [3] - In commodity retail, in addition to the drag of post - real - estate cycle commodities, the sales growth of gold and silver jewelry slowed down in November. The year - on - year growth rate of gold and silver jewelry in November was 8.5% (down 29.1 pct compared with the previous month), but the monthly sales of gold and silver fluctuated greatly. Coupled with the recent strong performance of gold prices, subsequent sales may still rebound. The year - on - year growth rates of post - real - estate cycle related commodities (household appliances, automobiles, furniture, and decoration materials) continued to decline. In November, the year - on - year sales of household appliances, decoration materials, automobiles, and furniture decreased by 19.4%, 17%, 8.3%, and 3.8% respectively. Affected by influenza and other factors, the growth rate of drug sales accelerated in November, with the growth rate increasing by 1.3 pct compared with the previous month to 4.9% [3] Export and Bond Market - In November, exports returned to high prosperity, investment decline narrowed, and consumption declined. The year - on - year growth rates of exports, investment, and social retail sales were 5.9%, - 12%, and 1.3% respectively, with changes of +7 pct, +0.2 pct, and - 1.6 pct compared with the previous month. The data did not change the weak sentiment in the bond market. After the 10Y interest rate declined slightly by 0.4 bp, it returned to the upward channel, and the market did not significantly price the data [2] - In the past two weeks, the bond market has experienced over - decline, recovery, and then weakening again, showing obvious "bearish characteristics". The pressure on the liability side has not been relieved, and there is still a lack of long - buying power in institutional behavior. In the short term, the spread market between individual bonds can be grasped [4]

截至收盘，创业板中盘200指数下跌1.2%，创业板指数下跌1.8%，创业板成长指数下跌1.9%，相关ETF获资金逆势加仓，创业板ETF（159915）获1.4亿份净 申购。 深交所及深圳证券信息有限公司近日宣布，对创业板指数等指数实施样本定期调整，并于今日正式实施，其中创业板指数将更换8只样本股。本次调整后， 创业板指数战略性新兴产业权重达到93%，新一期样本公司前三季度营业收入、净利润同比增速分别为16%、24%，研发费用同比增速为13%，其中30家公 司研发强度超10%，进一步强化了指数对新兴产业的表征性，实现"质效焕新"。 | 今日 | 该指数 | 该指数自2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 发布以来估 | | -1.8% | 40.7倍 | 34. | | 今日 该指数涨跌 | 该指数 | 该指数自2 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 滚动市盈率 | 发布以来估 | | -1 Q% | 40 6位 | 15 1 | 每日经济新闻 ...