Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week, the new VAT regulations have disrupted market expectations. Interest - rate bonds have fluctuated narrowly, with policy - bank bonds performing weaker than treasury bonds. Credit spreads have compressed across the board. The spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and secondary perpetual bonds have mostly declined, while the excess spreads of 5Y industrial perpetual bonds have increased and those of urban investment bonds have remained largely stable [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. New VAT Regulations Disrupt Interest Rates, Credit Spreads Compress Across the Board - The new VAT regulations have disturbed market expectations. Interest - rate bonds fluctuated narrowly, and policy - bank bonds underperformed treasury bonds. The 10Y policy - bank bond yield rose 2BP, while the 1Y and 7Y yields of China Development Bank bonds remained flat, and the 3Y and 5Y yields declined 1BP respectively. Ordinary credit bonds were not affected by the new regulations, performing stronger than interest - rate bonds, with most yields declining, and high - grade varieties performing slightly better. Credit spreads compressed across the board [2][5]. 2. Urban Investment Bond Spreads Mostly Decline by 2 - 3BP - The spreads of externally rated AAA, AA +, and AA urban investment platforms declined by 2BP, 3BP, and 3BP respectively compared to last week. By administrative level, the spreads of provincial, prefecture - level, and district - county - level platforms generally declined by 3BP [2][9]. 3. Industrial Bond Spreads Mostly Decline, Spreads of Mixed - Ownership Real - Estate Bonds Compress Significantly - The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds declined by 1 - 3BP, those of mixed - ownership real - estate bonds declined by 19BP, and those of private real - estate bonds declined by 249BP. The spreads of AAA and AA + coal bonds declined by 2BP and 3BP respectively, and those of AA coal bonds remained flat. The spreads of all grades of steel bonds declined by 2 - 3BP, and the spreads of AAA and AA + chemical bonds declined by 1BP and 3BP respectively [2][18]. 4. Yields of Secondary Perpetual Bonds Decline Across the Board, Medium - and Low - Grade Varieties Perform Slightly Better - This week, the yields of secondary perpetual bonds declined across the board, with medium - and low - grade varieties performing slightly better, and the spread reduction of high - grade 3 - 5 year varieties being smaller. The 1Y yields of all grades of secondary perpetual bonds declined by 3 - 4BP, and the spreads compressed similarly. The 3Y yields of AAA - secondary perpetual bonds declined by 2 - 3BP, with spreads compressing by 1 - 2BP; the yields of AA + and AA grades declined by 4 - 5BP, with spreads compressing by 3 - 4BP. The 5Y yields of AA + and above grades declined by 1 - 2BP, with spreads compressing by 0 - 1BP; the yields of AA grades declined by 4 - 6BP, with spreads compressing by 3 - 4BP [2][24]. 5. Excess Spreads of 5Y Industrial Perpetual Bonds Increase, Excess Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds Remain Largely Stable - This week, the excess spreads of industrial AAA 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.25BP to 7.41BP, at the 7.41% percentile since 2015; the excess spreads of industrial AAA 5Y perpetual bonds increased by 4.17BP to 11.82BP, at the 23.04% percentile since 2015. The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.56BP to 5.16BP, at the 2.79% percentile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 0.42BP to 10.91BP, at the 13.94% percentile [2][26]. 6. Explanation of Credit Spread Database Compilation - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank secondary perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical percentiles starting from the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D center of Cinda Securities, also with historical percentiles starting from the beginning of 2015 [28][31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continuous recovery of the core CPI in July 2025, with a month-on-month increase in CPI and a narrowing decline in PPI [1][2][4] - The CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods, with service prices contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI increase [2][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, influenced by significant price increases in gold and platinum jewelry [2][3] Group 2 - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first month-on-month narrowing since March [4][5] - The decline in PPI was influenced by seasonal factors and uncertainties in the international trade environment, affecting prices in several industries, including non-metallic mineral products and coal mining [4][5] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with some industries experiencing price recovery due to improved supply-demand relationships and ongoing macroeconomic policies [5][6]

天眼查商业履历信息显示，安源煤业集团股份有限公司，成立于1999年，位于萍乡市，是一家以从事批 发业为主的企业。企业注册资本98995.9882万人民币，实缴资本38945.0218万人民币。公司法定代表人 为熊旭晴。 通过天眼查大数据分析，安源煤业集团股份有限公司共对外投资了5家企业，参与招投标项目1517次， 专利信息1条，此外企业还拥有行政许可3个。 金融界消息 截至2025年8月8日收盘，安源煤业（600397）报收于6.14元，下跌1.44%，换手率2.27%， 成交量22.45万手，成交金额1.38亿元。 资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流出1050.02万元，占比成交额7.61%。其中，超大单净流出808.83万 元、占成交额5.86%，大单净流出241.19万元、占成交额1.75%，中单净流出流出184.82万元、占成交额 1.34%，小单净流入1234.84万元、占成交额8.95%。 安源煤业最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入8.22亿元、同比减少28.26%，归属净利 润12036.47万元，同比减少23.92%，扣非净利润12470.10万元，同比减少31.94%，流动比率 ...

智通财经4月1日讯（记者 王宏）随着上市公司年报披露，保险资金的加仓动态也浮出水面。 智通财经记者注意到，备受关注的首批险资长期投资试点，鸿鹄基金在去年四季度新进中国电信，期末 持仓市值达到了55亿元。此外，鸿鹄基金还在去年三季度新进伊利股份和陕西煤业，期末持仓市值分别 为34.7亿元和19.35亿元。 从选股来看，业内人士指出，中国电信未来三年分红比例不低于75%，可以为险资提供稳定的现金流。 从目前的持仓来看，鸿鹄基金选股紧密拥抱政策，偏好高股息和大蓝筹。 截至今年3月初，鸿鹄基金已全部落地500亿元，新华保险高管表示，鸿鹄基金采用OCI权益法等计量方 式，减小了股价短期波动对资产负债表和损益表的冲击。据悉，第二批保险资金长期投资试点已经开 启，试点规模已经扩大到1620亿元。 最新加仓中国电信，持仓市值55亿 智通财经记者注意到，备受关注的500亿保险资金长期投资试点——鸿鹄志远（上海）私募投资基金有 限公司（以下简称"鸿鹄基金"）有了新动向，出现在了中国电信前十大股东之中。 中国电信2024年财报显示，鸿鹄基金在去年四季度新进中国电信761742240股，期末持股数量为 761742240股，持股比例 ...

作为首批保险资金长期股票投资试点，鸿鹄志远（上海）私募投资基金有限公司的动态备受关注。 随着A股上市公司2025年一季报陆续披露，鸿鹄基金的最新持股情况浮出水面。Wind数据显示，截至一 季度末，鸿鹄基金重仓持有中国电信、伊利股份、陕西煤业三只个股，合计持股市值超125亿元。在鸿 鹄基金一期500亿元投资落地之后，鸿鹄基金二期获批200亿元，其投资方向为中证A500指数成分股中 符合条件的大型上市公司A股、H股。 中国证券报记者调研了解到，第二批获批保险资金长期股票投资试点的机构正加快推进相关工作落 地。国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽5月7日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，近期拟再批复600亿元，进 一步扩大保险资金长期股票投资试点范围。以此来计算，已批复和拟批复的保险资金长期股票投资试点 规模达到2220亿元。 鸿鹄基金三大重仓股 Wind数据显示，2025年一季度末，鸿鹄基金重仓持有中国电信、伊利股份、陕西煤业三只个股， 合计持股数量超10亿股，合计持股市值超125亿元。 具体来看，一季度末，鸿鹄基金分别持有中国电信、伊利股份、陕西煤业7.62亿股、1.53亿股、 1.16亿股，持股市值分别为59.80亿元、4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the schedule and topics for the 2025 research framework training organized by Guotai Junan Securities, emphasizing a comprehensive approach across various sectors and inviting participation from interested parties [19]. Group 1: Event Schedule - The training sessions are scheduled for August 18-19 and August 25-26, covering a range of topics from macroeconomic research to sector-specific studies [14][19]. - The first two days focus on total, consumption, and financial sectors, while the latter two days will delve into cyclical, pharmaceutical, technology, and manufacturing sectors [19]. Group 2: Research Topics - The training will include sessions on food and beverage research, retail and service research, textile and apparel research, internet applications, home appliances, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery research [15]. - Additional topics will cover macroeconomic research, strategy research, overseas strategy research, fixed income research, fund evaluation, financial engineering, small and medium-sized enterprises, and new stock research [15][16]. - The second week will feature non-metallic building materials, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, biological medicine, cultural communication, electronics, and various engineering and manufacturing studies [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - Mongolian Coal (00975) has issued a profit warning, expecting a loss of $15 million to $25 million for the first half of the year, a significant decline from a net profit of $133 million in the same period last year, indicating a shift from profit to loss due to falling sales prices of washed coking coal and one-time refinancing costs [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a loss of $15 million to $25 million for the first half of 2025, compared to a net profit of $133 million in the same period last year, marking a year-on-year shift from profit to loss [1] - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to decreased sales prices of washed coking coal, leading to reduced revenue for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 2: Operational Data - In the second quarter, the company's wholly-owned subsidiary Energy Resources LLC and its controlling subsidiary Khangad Exploration LLC mined a total of 3.4284 million tons of raw coal, representing a year-on-year decrease of 28% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7% [1] - During the same period, the processing of raw coal reached 3.6057 million tons, with washed coking coal production at 2.1781 million tons, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% but a year-on-year decrease of 2% [1] - The total sales of washed coking coal for the second quarter amounted to 1.7397 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 25% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% [1]

Core Viewpoint - AnYuan Coal Industry Group Co., Ltd. is undergoing a major asset swap and related party transaction, involving the exchange of coal-related assets and liabilities for a 57% stake in Ganzhou Jinhui Magnetic Selection Technology Equipment Co., Ltd. [2][3] Group 1: Transaction Overview - The proposed transaction involves the exchange of assets and liabilities, with the difference in transaction prices to be settled in cash [2] - The self-inspection period for insider trading related to this transaction spans from October 3, 2024, to June 27, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Insider Trading Self-Inspection - The scope of the self-inspection includes directors, supervisors, senior management, and their immediate family members from both AnYuan Coal and the counterparties involved [3] - The self-inspection confirmed that the trading activities of insiders during the inspection period do not constitute insider trading and will not pose substantial legal obstacles to the transaction [2][4] Group 3: Commitments from Insiders - Insiders involved in trading during the self-inspection period have issued commitment letters affirming that their trading activities were based on personal judgment and not influenced by insider information [5][6][7] - Each insider has committed to adhering to legal regulations regarding insider trading and has accepted legal responsibility for the accuracy of their statements [5][6][7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenues increased to $68 million, up 30% year over year, primarily driven by the utility coal mining segment [15] - Consolidated net income decreased to $3.3 million from $6 million in the prior year, with diluted earnings per share down 46% year on year [16] - EBITDA was reported at $9.3 million compared to $13.5 million in the same period last year [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Utility Coal Mining segment faced operational disruptions, leading to a decline in operating profit and segment adjusted EBITDA, primarily due to challenges at Mississippi Lignite Mining Company [16][18] - North American Mining revenues net of reimbursed costs rose 3%, driven by increased parts sales, but were offset by fewer tons delivered and higher operating costs [18] - Minerals and Royalties segment saw a 30% rise in revenues, largely due to higher natural gas prices, with operating profit and EBITDA increasing when excluding last year's one-time gain [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The utility coal mining segment's challenges were linked to customer inefficiencies at power plants, affecting coal mining operations [8] - The contract mining segment experienced fewer trends delivered due to temporary mechanical issues, but parts sales helped offset some losses [9] - The company anticipates stronger results in the latter half of the year as new contracts and parts sales contribute positively [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on long-term contracts and investments that produce steady earnings and cash flows, aiming for a compounding growth model [12][13] - New segment names were introduced to enhance communication with stakeholders, reflecting a strategic effort to clarify business activities [5][14] - The company is optimistic about future growth, particularly in the contract mining segment, and is actively pursuing new long-term projects [48] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate temporary challenges and expects improving results in the second half of the year [7][22] - The operational discipline and focus on long-term returns for shareholders remain a priority, with optimism about prospects for 2026 and beyond [22] - Management acknowledged the favorable environment for energy demand and government support, which is expected to benefit all business segments [22] Other Important Information - The company plans to terminate its pension plan by the end of the year, which will trigger a non-cash settlement charge but simplify its financial structure [20] - Total debt outstanding as of June 30 was $95.5 million, with total liquidity at $139.9 million [20] - The company is forecasting up to $86 million in capital spending for the year, primarily for new business development [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why were volumes lighter in the coal segment? - Management indicated it was a collection of minor issues and not a cause for concern going forward [25][27] Question: Will MMLC return to profit next year? - Management confirmed expectations for MMLC to return to gross profit, contingent on improved pricing and consistent operations [28][29] Question: Why did North American Mining volumes drop? - The drop was attributed to reduced customer demand and mechanical issues with equipment, but repairs have been successful [41][42] Question: What is the allocation of the increased CapEx? - Most of the CapEx is related to growth initiatives and securing new contracts, with a focus on long-term projects [43][45] Question: How does the company view its leverage post CapEx cycle? - Management aims for less leverage over time, maintaining a conservative balance sheet to mitigate risks [75][76] Question: Can you elaborate on the parts business in contract mining? - The parts business is an evolution of the model to better serve customers by stocking hard-to-find components on-site [80] Question: Are draglines moved from coal mines to new quarries? - Draglines used in contract mining are separate from those in coal mining, and new quarries may utilize existing equipment or new acquisitions [82][83]

Report Summary on Investment Strategies 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Bullish [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Sideways pattern [1] - **Gold**: Bullish pattern; recommended to hold short - put option positions for the 10 - contract [1][4] - **Silver**: Bullish pattern; recommended to hold long positions and short - put option positions for the 10 - contract [4] - **Copper**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Aluminum - related Metals**: Aluminum is cautiously bullish; Alumina and Aluminum Alloy are in a sideways pattern [4] - **Nickel**: Sideways; recommended to hold short - call option positions [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Sideways [6] - **Silicon Energy**: Sideways pattern [6] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Sideways pattern; for rebar, hold short - put option positions; for hot - rolled coil, recommend to go long on the January contract on dips; for iron ore, consider short - put option positions for the 09 - contract or go long on the 01 - contract after the environmental protection limit expectation is fulfilled [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Sideways [7] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish pattern; recommend to take profit on short positions for the 09 - contract [7] - **Float Glass**: Bearish pattern for the 9 - contract; recommend to take profit on short positions and go long on the 01 - contract [7] - **Crude Oil**: Bearish pattern [7] - **Methanol**: Sideways; recommend to sell an option straddle [9] - **Polyolefins**: Sideways, trending slightly bullish [9] - **Cotton**: Bearish pattern [9] - **Rubber**: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: With policy support, bottom - up recovery of corporate earnings, and abundant liquidity, the upward trend of the equity index is clear, and the bullish sentiment is strengthened [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: The macro - economic outlook is volatile, and although the bond market is supported by loose liquidity, there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to trade at a high level [1] - **Precious Metals**: The weakening US dollar and rising Fed rate - cut expectations boost the prices of gold and silver. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver shows a clear bullish pattern [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Supply disruptions support prices, but demand concerns limit the upside potential. Different metals have different supply - demand situations [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disturbances are easing, and demand expectations are turning positive, with the supply - demand structure showing signs of improvement [6] - **Silicon Energy**: Industrial silicon supply is shrinking, and polysilicon has strong cost and policy support, but the actual production volume in August needs attention [6] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Coal production control supports steel prices. Different steel products and iron ore contracts have different supply - demand and price trends [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal is expected to tighten, and the supply - demand of coke is expected to increase, with both in a sideways pattern [7] - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda ash has a bearish fundamental outlook, while float glass may turn around in the long - term if supply contraction expectations are fulfilled [7] - **Crude Oil**: The increasing probability of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces the risk premium, leading to a short - term weakening of oil prices [7] - **Methanol**: The contradiction between loose coastal supply and tight inland supply makes it difficult for methanol prices to rise or fall, and an option straddle strategy is recommended [9] - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand will increase simultaneously in August, and the trend will turn sideways and slightly bullish [9] - **Cotton**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a weakening trend [9] - **Rubber**: The demand outlook is improving, and the raw material price is stabilizing, so the rubber price is expected to rebound [9] 3. Summary by Categories **Equity Index Futures** - Wednesday, the equity index rose steadily, with small and micro - cap stocks leading the gains. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly to 1.76 trillion yuan. The mechanical, defense, and coal industries led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and construction sectors declined. The equity index futures strengthened with the spot market, and the basis of each contract narrowed slightly. The margin balance returned to the 2 - trillion - yuan mark, and leveraged funds accelerated their entry. With positive factors such as policy support and corporate earnings recovery, the upward trend of the equity index is clear, and long positions should be held [1] **Treasury Bonds** - The bond market continued to fluctuate at a high level. There is uncertainty about trade tariffs between some countries and the US, the Fed rate - cut expectation has risen, but inflation pressure still exists. The US dollar index continued to weaken. The central bank had a net withdrawal in the open market, but the liquidity remained loose. The bond market is difficult to reverse, but there is a lack of new positive factors, so it may continue to trade at a high level [1] **Precious Metals** - Trump's announcements on tariffs and sanctions, along with rising Fed rate - cut expectations, increased the short - term upward momentum of gold prices. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver shows a clear bullish pattern. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions for gold and silver 10 - contracts and long positions for silver [4] **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Supply disruptions due to the Chilean copper mine incident and a weakening US dollar support copper prices, but weak demand expectations limit the upside [4] - **Aluminum - related Metals**: Alumina has an expected oversupply, but low warehouse receipts and market sentiment provide short - term support. The support for Shanghai Aluminum is strengthening, and its medium - term bullish pattern remains unchanged. Aluminum alloy follows the cost - based pricing logic and is in a sideways pattern [4] - **Nickel**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. Although the nickel price has rebounded due to macro - factors, the high inventory pressure limits the upside, and short - call option positions should be held [4] **Lithium Carbonate** - Due to policy impacts on the lithium resource end, the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory pressure eased. The demand expectation has turned positive, but supply - side disturbances still exist [6] **Silicon Energy** - Industrial silicon supply is contracting passively, and polysilicon has strong cost and policy support. However, the actual production volume in August needs attention [6] **Steel and Iron Ore** - **Rebar**: The supply is restricted by environmental protection and industry policies, and the cost is supported by coal production control. The market sentiment is optimistic, and short - put option positions should be held [5] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The fundamentals are resilient, with supply constraints and cost support. It is recommended to go long on the January contract on dips [5] - **Iron Ore**: The 9 - contract is dragged down by environmental protection limits and a weak basis, while the 01 - contract has positive expectations. However, the price upside is limited, and different strategies can be adopted for different contracts [5] **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Coking Coal**: The market expects supply to tighten, but the impact of expectations on prices is greater than the fundamentals, and the risk of over - rising prices should be guarded against [7] - **Coke**: Both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the spot market is actively traded, with the futures price stabilizing and trending slightly bullish [7] **Soda Ash and Float Glass** - **Soda Ash**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to take profit on short positions for the 09 - contract [7] - **Float Glass**: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to increase. In the long - term, if supply contraction expectations are fulfilled, the price may turn around. It is recommended to take profit on short positions for the 9 - contract and go long on the 01 - contract [7] **Crude Oil** - The increasing probability of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces the risk premium, and the short - term oil price may weaken [7] **Methanol** - The port inventory is increasing, and the production enterprise inventory is decreasing. The contradiction between loose coastal supply and tight inland supply makes it difficult for prices to rise or fall, and an option straddle strategy is recommended [9] **Polyolefins** - The supply is increasing due to the restart of maintenance devices, and the demand is also rising. The trend will turn sideways and slightly bullish [9] **Cotton** - The domestic cotton production is expected to increase, and the overseas demand is affected by trade frictions. The downstream is in the off - season, and the cotton price is weakening [9] **Rubber** - The demand outlook is improving, and the raw material price is stabilizing. The rubber price is expected to rebound as it is at a relatively low level [9]