1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term due to tight supply, but may be suppressed by increased policy wheat supply and faster grain circulation. Long - term, import and domestic auction policies are key factors [3]. - Starch prices will likely remain oscillating and strong in the short - term with tight raw material supply and slow recovery of downstream consumption. Long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is crucial for price trends [3]. - For sugar, the international market has a slightly stronger fundamental situation, and the domestic market is oscillating strongly. There is pressure from industrial spot goods and hedging on the upper side of the futures market [4][5]. - Cotton demand is expected to improve continuously, and it is suitable for long - term long positions considering low initial inventory, expanding textile production, good downstream profits, and policies promoting consumption [6]. - For eggs, the process of capacity reduction has slowed down, but feed cost increases compress profit margins. It should be treated in a reverse spread pattern [9]. - The apple market trading is stable with different situations in different regions. The sales atmosphere in the sales area is not strong [12]. - For pigs, the spot price is declining slightly, with weak demand and loose supply. The market is in the process of finding the bottom, and there may be a supply - demand mismatch in the medium - term. Pay attention to the impact of capacity reduction on market sentiment [12]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Changes**: From March 17 - 23, the price in Changchun remained unchanged, the price in Jinzhou increased by 5, the price in Weifang decreased by 20, and the price in Shekou decreased by 10. The basis decreased by 23, the trade profit decreased by 15, and the import profit decreased by 30. For starch, the basis decreased by 7, and the processing profit increased by 2 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, corn prices are supported by tight supply but may be suppressed by policy wheat and increased grain circulation. Starch prices are expected to be oscillating and strong with tight raw material supply and slow downstream consumption recovery [3]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: From March 17 - 23, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming increased by 30, 30, and 15 respectively. The basis increased by 16, and the import profit increased by 95. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the fundamental situation is slightly stronger. Domestically, the market is oscillating strongly with pressure from industrial spot goods and hedging [4][5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Changes**: From March 17 - 23, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 160. The number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 5. The price of Vietnam yarn decreased by 10, the import profit decreased by 52, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 178 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton demand is expected to improve due to low initial inventory, expanding textile production, good downstream profits, and consumption - promoting policies. It is suitable for long - term long positions [6]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: From March 17 - 23, the prices in Hebei and Liaoning increased by 0.07. The basis decreased by 70, the price of yellow - feather broilers increased by 0.05, and the price of pigs increased by 0.03 [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The process of capacity reduction has slowed down, but feed cost increases compress profit margins. It should be treated in a reverse spread pattern [9]. Apples - **Price Changes**: From March 17 - 23, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged. The national inventory increased by 115, Shandong inventory increased by 577, and Shaanxi inventory increased by 191. The 1 - month basis increased by 90, the 5 - month basis increased by 467, and the 10 - month basis increased by 126 [11][12]. - **Market Analysis**: The market trading is stable, with different situations in different regions. The sales atmosphere in the sales area is not strong [12]. Pigs - **Price Changes**: From March 17 - 23, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and Shandong Linyi decreased by 0.05, 0.25, and 0.10 respectively. The basis increased by 190 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot price is declining slightly, with weak demand and loose supply. The market is in the process of finding the bottom, and there may be a supply - demand mismatch in the medium - term. Pay attention to the impact of capacity reduction on market sentiment [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic fundamentals from multiple aspects based on the high - frequency data from March 16 to March 21, 2026. It shows that the overall economic situation has certain fluctuations, with some indicators showing changes in growth rates and directions [1][2][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 130.4 points (previous value: 130.3 points), with a week - on - week increase of 5.8 points. The long - short signal factor for interest - rate bonds is 2.9% (previous value: 3.2%) [1][8]. 3.2 Production: Most Operating Rates Continue to Rise - The industrial production high - frequency index is 128.9 (previous value: 129.0), with a week - on - week increase of 4.5 points (previous value: 4.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has declined. The electric furnace operating rate is 60.9% (previous value: 55.8%); the polyester operating rate is 86.3% (previous value: 85.6%); the semi - tire operating rate is 78.3% (previous value: 77.7%); the full - tire operating rate is 70.7% (previous value: 70.2%); the PX operating rate is 86.5% (previous value: 87.8%) [1][8][12]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: The Transaction Area of Commercial Housing Rises Slightly - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 39.4 (previous value: 39.6), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.6 points (previous value: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline has widened. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 26.3 million square meters (previous value: 23.3 million square meters) [1][8][26]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: The Operating Rate of Petroleum Asphalt Drops - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 122.1 (previous value: 122.4), with a week - on - week increase of 7.0 points (previous value: 7.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has declined. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt is 21.8% (previous value: 23.0%) [1][8][36]. 3.5 Exports: The RJ/CRB Index Rises - The export high - frequency index is 144.0 (previous value: 143.8), with a week - on - week decrease of 1.2 points (previous value: 1.4 points), and the year - on - year decline has decreased. The RJ/CRB index is 363.1 points (previous value: 358.1 points) [1][8][46]. 3.6 Consumption: The Daily Average Box Office of Movies Drops - The consumption high - frequency index is 121.0 (previous value: 121.2), with a week - on - week increase of 2.0 points (previous value: 2.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has declined. The daily average box office of movies is 4803.4 million yuan (previous value: 7184.5 million yuan) [1][8][54]. 3.7 CPI: Agricultural Product Prices Drop - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.6% (previous value: 0.6%). The latest average wholesale price of pork is 16.1 yuan/kg (previous value: 16.7 yuan/kg); the latest average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.0 yuan/kg); the latest average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.9 yuan/kg); the latest average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.3 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.5 yuan/kg) [2][8][58]. 3.8 PPI: Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.4% (previous value: 0.3%). The closing price of steam coal (from Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 726.6 yuan/ton (previous value: 734.0 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 106.4 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 96.5 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 12357.4 US dollars/ton (previous value: 12835.2 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 3359.0 US dollars/ton (previous value: 3462.5 US dollars/ton) [2][8][64]. 3.9 Transportation: The Highway Logistics Index Drops - The transportation high - frequency index is 138.1 (previous value: 137.8), with a week - on - week increase of 12.7 points (previous value: 12.6 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has widened. The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 4010.3 million person - times (previous value: 3969.3 million person - times); the highway logistics freight rate index is 1053.0 points (previous value: 1053.7 points); the number of domestic flights is 13076.3 (previous value: 13351.7) [2][9][79]. 3.10 Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Drops from a High Level - The inventory high - frequency index is 165.6 (previous value: 165.5), with a week - on - week increase of 7.2 points (previous value: 7.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has declined. The soda ash inventory is 187.9 million tons (previous value: 192.7 million tons) [2][9][88]. 3.11 Financing: The Financing of Local Government Bonds and Credit Bonds Recovers - The financing high - frequency index is 253.7 (previous value: 253.0), with a week - on - week increase of 31.8 points (previous value: 31.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has widened. The net financing of local government bonds is 2138.2 billion yuan (previous value: 646.4 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 908.8 billion yuan (previous value: 774.5 billion yuan) [2][9][99].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market pulled back 2.42% last week, with precious metals leading the decline at 11.29%, while energy - chemical and black commodities rose 1.64% and 0.08% respectively. The short - term commodity market may fluctuate due to tightened dollar liquidity [2][6]. - The Fed's hawkish stance in the interest - rate meeting last week pushed the dollar stronger, putting pressure on commodities. Geopolitical tensions support energy - related varieties, but the market may be volatile in the short term [2]. - Precious metals may remain weak as central banks' hawkish signals and rising oil prices increase inflation pressure, and the market expects the Fed may not cut interest rates this year [2]. - The non - ferrous metals sector is under pressure due to the high dollar index and cooling interest - rate cut expectations, but spot procurement provides some support [3]. - The black commodities sector may fluctuate strongly in the short term as terminal demand recovers, though steel mill profits limit the upside [3]. - Energy prices remained high last week due to geopolitical disturbances, and short - term oil price volatility may intensify [3]. - The chemical sector continues to be strong due to cost support and downstream resumption of production. Some products like methanol may be relatively stronger, while the polyester industry faces challenges [4]. - Agricultural products may experience increased volatility. Although they pulled back last week, biodiesel demand and supply uncertainties may affect prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market**: The overall commodity market pulled back 2.42% last week. Precious metals led the decline at 11.29%, non - ferrous metals and agricultural products fell 4.1% and 1.9% respectively, while energy - chemical and black commodities rose 1.64% and 0.08% [2][6]. - **Top Gainers and Losers**: The top - gaining varieties were ethylene glycol, methanol, and asphalt, with increases of 13.2%, 11.66%, and 9% respectively. The top - losing varieties were silver, tin, and live pigs, with declines of 15.76%, 8.45%, and 8.34% [2][6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market changed little last week, with most sectors showing a slight increase in volatility [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale decreased significantly last week, with net outflows in all sectors, mainly concentrated in precious metals and non - ferrous metals [2][6]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Central banks' hawkish signals and rising oil prices increase inflation pressure. The market expects the Fed may not cut interest rates this year. International gold and silver show signs of breaking down, and the sector may remain weak [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The high dollar index and cooling interest - rate cut expectations put pressure on the sector. However, spot procurement provides support as prices fall and downstream industries resume production, and high inventories may be at a turning point [3]. - **Black Commodities**: Terminal demand is recovering during the "Golden March and Silver April" period. Steel production is increasing, and inventories are starting to decline. Iron - water production has rebounded significantly, but steel mill profits limit further increases. Raw material prices are supported by factors such as geopolitical conflicts [3]. - **Energy**: Energy prices remained high last week due to geopolitical disturbances. The gap between alternative pipeline capacity and normal oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is large. Strategic oil reserve releases are mainly for emergency, and future oil price volatility may intensify [3]. - **Chemical**: The sector remains strong due to cost support and downstream resumption of production. Methanol may be relatively stronger, while the polyester industry faces challenges such as declining efficiency, low terminal demand, and inventory accumulation [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products pulled back last week due to global economic concerns. However, the value of biodiesel and supply uncertainties may lead to increased price volatility [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with an average decline of around 8%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 3,186.22 billion yuan, with a 0.23% increase. Trading volume increased significantly [38]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 0.44% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 3.10% return, the non - ferrous metals ETF had a - 6.18% return, and the silver fund had a - 19.48% return [38].

Sector Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding sector investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has been postponed to mid - May, making the future of soybean procurement uncertain. From January to February 2026, China imported 150 million tons of US soybeans, a significant decrease compared to the same period last year, while imports from Brazil increased by 83%. The international crude oil price is high, which supports the price of soybean as a raw material for biodiesel, but a sharp increase is unlikely. Domestically, the inspection of Brazilian soybeans has extended the customs clearance time, but the supply of soybeans remains sufficient. The spot basis price of soybean oil is affected. Palm oil futures in Malaysia are expected to fluctuate around 4,600 ringgit. After the end of the Eid al - Fitr, palm oil production will resume growth, which will suppress the market performance. Rapeseed oil futures have been consolidating at a high level. Oil mills have been actively purchasing Canadian rapeseed and selling forward basis positions. The basis price is expected to oscillate. Overall, the oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors and will likely show a complex trend [1]. Cotton - USDA's weekly cotton contract signing has declined slightly, with Vietnam being the main buyer, and China has significantly increased its imports of US cotton. A 30 - million - ton sliding - scale tariff quota has been officially issued, and the price difference between domestic and international cotton has narrowed. The drought in the main US cotton - producing areas persists, and the cotton inspection progress has exceeded 100%, with an expected final inspection volume of around 3.05 million tons. US cotton is expected to fluctuate widely between 65 - 70 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the issuance of additional quotas has led to a rapid narrowing of the price difference between domestic and international cotton, but it remains at a relatively high level. If the international cotton market does not rise, Zhengzhou cotton will face pressure, but the strong demand for cotton raw materials from spinning enterprises will provide support. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2]. Sugar - Due to rainfall in the main sugar - producing areas, the soil moisture has improved, and the expected cane crushing volume in the 26/27 season in the central - southern region of Brazil has been raised to 620 - 630 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15 - 25 million tons. However, due to sugar mills' preference for ethanol production, the estimated sugar production in Brazil has been lowered. In India, the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season is coming to an end. As of March 15, the cumulative sugar production was 26.175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10%. The final sugar production in India this season is expected to be lower. Internationally, there are many positive factors, and the raw sugar market is expected to remain oscillating strongly in the short term. In China, from January to February 2026, the total sugar imports were 520,000 tons, exceeding market expectations. The spot market sales are weak, but the price is stable above 5,400 yuan per ton. The futures market is strong due to the overall strength of commodities and potential policy expectations, but the weak production and sales performance in February and the significant year - on - year increase in industrial inventory will limit the upward space. In the short term, sugar futures are likely to remain at a high level and oscillate strongly [4]. Red Dates - The red dates market has entered the off - season. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, most of the arriving goods are sub - standard dates, and the supply of finished products is small. Sellers are eager to sell. The Guangdong Ruyifang market has weak trading, with low consumer demand and weak stocking willingness among traders. The inventory reduction is slow, and the registration of futures warehouse receipts has decreased year - on - year. Affected by macro - funds and the good quality of new dates, the futures market has rebounded slightly in the low - valuation range, but the upward movement of futures prices is limited by the weak market reality. Future attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm and weather changes [5]. Apples - With the start of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, the market's purchasing willingness has increased. The proportion of high - quality apples in the market is still low, the mainstream price is stable, and the price of high - quality apples in some areas has increased slightly. Recently, some buyers looking for high - quality apples have shifted from the western to the Shandong production areas, and the inquiry for high - quality apples in Qixia, Shandong has increased significantly, with a slight increase in transactions. The foreign trade orders are performing well. As seasonal fruits are out of season, the demand for apples is gradually released, and the national apple inventory is continuously decreasing. As of March 18, 2026, the inventory in the main apple - producing areas was 4.6843 million tons, a decrease of 312,900 tons from the previous week, and the decline rate has accelerated. In the short term, driven by demand and supported by low inventory, the futures market is expected to oscillate strongly [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the supply side, due to the rising temperature and the need for cash before the spring plowing, farmers in the production areas are more willing to sell their grains. Coupled with continuous policy releases, the supply is slightly increasing, and the price is stable with a slight downward trend. The price at the northern ports has decreased slightly due to the increase in the collection volume. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is continuously increasing, and there is still a need for replenishment. Feed enterprises are suffering losses and have a general demand for high - priced corn, and some areas are using wheat as a substitute. The wheat auction volume has increased to 800,000 tons, which supplements the supply to some extent. In the short term, the increase in corn supply and the substitution of wheat will put pressure on the price, but the rigid demand for replenishment from downstream enterprises will limit the decline. Overall, the price will remain oscillating at a high level. Attention should be paid to future policy releases [9]. Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - The US soybean market is worried about export prospects, and the potential biodiesel policy has been postponed to April, leading to a decline in US soybean prices. However, the oil price provides support, limiting the decline of US soybeans. In the domestic market, there are concerns about the continuity of shutdowns and supplies, so the提货 enthusiasm is high, and oil mills are eager to maintain prices. The inventory is continuously decreasing, which supports the soybean meal price. Currently, the short - term arrival of goods is tight, supporting the spot price. Although US soybeans have declined, there is a possibility that the Brazilian premium will rebound. The soybean meal market is expected to remain oscillating at a high level, waiting for the planting intention report at the end of March. There is a negative expectation of an increase in soybean planting area, but the risk is limited [12]. Pigs - Recently, the pig slaughter volume has been large, and group farms have increased their sales. The average slaughter weight has remained high, the price difference between fat and lean pigs has weakened, and the price in some weight segments has been inverted, which is not conducive to the entry of secondary fattening. In the off - season of demand, the downstream procurement is slowly recovering, and although the slaughter volume has increased, the boost is limited. The market is currently focusing on secondary fattening and frozen product warehousing. The upward pressure is significant, the capital is tight, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. The overall motivation for slaughterhouses to enter the market is limited, and most of the inventory increase is passive. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is limited, the cost is rising, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is also not conducive to holding pigs for fattening. It is expected that both futures and spot prices will continue to bottom out, and there is a possibility that the near - month contracts will fall below 10,000 [14]. Eggs - On the supply side, the price of culled hens has been high recently and has shown signs of decline. Farmers' willingness to cull has increased, and the number of culled hens has increased slightly. The number of newly - laying hens has increased slightly month - on - month but remains at a relatively low level. Overall, the market supply is still relatively loose, but due to the light inventory pressure in each link, the shipping pressure on the supply side next week is expected to be relatively small. On the demand side, the current market demand is still weak. The terminal mainly consumes inventory, and the procurement rhythm is slow. Food enterprises adopt a strategy of replenishing inventory at low prices and have not formed a continuous increase in demand. However, with the start of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking next week, the festival effect is expected to gradually appear. The increase in short - distance travel may drive the consumption in the catering channel to increase, and supermarkets are expected to increase promotional efforts, which will stimulate the purchasing intention of households. Therefore, the market demand is expected to improve temporarily under the boost of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking. Overall, with the boost of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, there is a possibility of a phased improvement, but considering the continuous supply pressure and the adverse impact of rising temperatures on storage, the egg price is expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range [16]. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On March 20, the spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,950 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,628 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The basis of Y2605 was 322 yuan/ton, up 9.52%. The spot basis in Jiangsu in March was 05 + 300. The number of warehouse receipts was 24,892, down 1.78%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9,748 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil was - 798 yuan/ton, up 4.77%. The price difference between 2605 contracts of soybean oil and palm oil was - 1,090 yuan/ton, up 7.63%. The import cost of palm oil in Guangzhou Port in May was 10,171.5 yuan/ton, up 0.87%. The price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil in 2602 was 1,248 yuan/ton, up 0.81%. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,308 yuan/ton, up 0.29%. The futures price of OIROS was 9,876 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. The basis of O1605 was 432 yuan/ton, up 1.89%. The spot basis in Jiangsu in March was 05 + 400. The number of warehouse receipts was 805, unchanged [1]. - **Inventory and Market Conditions**: The inventory of soybean oil in Chinese crushing plants was 1.2 million tons. The inventory of palm oil in China was 1.4 million tons. The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal crushing plants in China was 621,000 tons, down 24.36% [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On March 23, the price of cotton 2605 was 15,215 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; the price of cotton 2609 was 15,320 yuan/ton, up 0.10%. The price difference between 5 - 9 contracts was - 105 yuan/ton, down 10.53%. The trading volume of the main contract was 592,451, down 4.41%. The number of warehouse receipts was 12,400, down 0.30%; the number of effective forecasts was 328, up 1.55% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 16,480 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The CC Index of 3128B was 16,649 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The FC Index of M: 1% was 13,118 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The price difference between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1,265 yuan/ton, down 5.88%; the price difference between 3128B and the 09 contract was 1,160 yuan/ton, down 7.13%. The price difference between the CC Index of 3128B and the FC Index of M: 1% was 3,531 yuan/ton, up 2.79% [2]. - **Industry Conditions**: The yarn inventory was 0, down 100%. The industrial inventory was 1.024 million tons, up 14.5%. The import volume was 166,500 tons, down 19.0%. The bonded area inventory was 471,000 tons, up 9.8%. The inventory days of yarn were 21.45 days, down 1.2%. The inventory days of grey cloth were 33.24 days, up 0.3%. The immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises for C32s was - 2,213.90 yuan/ton, up 5.6%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 166.1 billion yuan, up 7.7%. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles was 0.60%, down 82.9%. The export volume of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was 1.1383 billion US dollars, down 9.5%. The export volume of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.1061 billion US dollars, down 19.9% [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On March 23, the price of sugar 2605 was 5,439 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the price of sugar 2609 was 5,469 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The price difference between 5 - 9 contracts was - 30 yuan/ton, down 30.43%. The trading volume of the main contract was 354,040, down 4.86%. The number of warehouse receipts was 16,342, unchanged; the number of effective forecasts was 0 [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5,315 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis in Nanning was 21 yuan/ton, down 51.16%; the basis in Kunming was - 124 yuan/ton, down 21.57%. The import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,292 yuan/ton, up 2.78%; the import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 5,446 yuan/ton, up 2.85%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and the Nanning price was - 1,168 yuan/ton, up 9.03%; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and the Nanning price was - 14 yuan/ton, up 91.52% [4]. - **Industry Conditions**: The cumulative national sugar production was 9.26 million tons, down 4.69%. The cumulative national sugar sales were 3.45 million tons, down 27.39%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 5.6513 million tons, down 8.36%. The sugar sales in Guangxi were 1.6223 million tons, up 20.16%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 37.30%, down 23.72%. The cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 35.25%, down 24.60%. The national industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, up 17.03%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Guangxi was 3.659 million tons, up 11.43%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Yunnan was 795,900 tons, up 17.42%. The sugar import volume was 580,000 tons, up 48.72% [4]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On March 23, the price of red dates 2605 (main contract) was 8,840 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the price of red dates 2607 was 9,030 yuan/ton, up 0.11%; the price of red dates 2609 was 9,235 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. The price difference between 5 - 7 contracts was - 190 yuan/ton, up 2.56%; the price difference between 5 - 9 contracts was - 395 yuan/ton, down 1.28%. The trading volume was 170,990, down 1.12%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,112, unchanged; the number of effective forecasts was 174, unchanged; the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 4,286, unchanged [5]. - **Spot Market

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The issuance of 300,000 tons of import sliding - duty quotas is likely to benefit US cotton, narrowing the domestic - foreign price difference. The impact on domestic cotton supply is relatively small, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton. Although cotton has declined due to the overall market atmosphere, the decline is expected to be limited [6]. - In the short - term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton change little. It is advisable to build long positions on dips rather than chasing highs. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: - CF01 closed at 15,605, down 25; CF05 at 15,150, down 60; CF09 at 15,255, down 50; CY05 at 21,285, down 15; CY09 at 21,250, up 15. CY01 had no trading [2]. - The trading volume and open interest of each contract changed to varying degrees, with significant decreases in the trading volume of CF05 and CF09 [2]. - **Spot Market**: - CCIndex3128B was 16,722 yuan/ton, down 99; CY IndexC32S was 22,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; A (Cot) was 79.35 cents/pound; FCY IndexC33S was 22,628 yuan/ton, up 60 [2]. - The prices of other products such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc. also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Price Spreads**: - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 455, up 35; 5 - 9 spread was - 105, down 10; 9 - 1 spread was - 350, down 25 [2]. - Cotton - yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 21,285, up 15; 5 - 9 spread was 35, down 30; 9 - 1 spread was 21,250, up 15 [2]. - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was (15,605), up 25; CY05 - CF05 was 6,135, up 45; CY09 - CF09 was 5,995, up 65 [2]. - Domestic - foreign spreads: The 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2,699, down 701; the sliding - duty domestic - foreign cotton spread was - 1,331, down 338; the domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 578, down 60 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: - As of March 17, the drought index of the main US cotton - producing areas decreased slightly, but the drought level in the main areas and Texas remained relatively high. Drought is expected to continue from March to June, with intensification in the Midwest and relief in the eastern regions [4]. - On March 23, 2026, the Xinjiang cotton road transportation price index was 0.1553 yuan/ton·km, down 1.46% month - on - month. The index may fluctuate due to energy price changes [4]. - Pakistani yarn mills raised domestic yarn prices due to rising raw material costs and potential increases in energy expenses. Export yarn inquiries increased, and the prices of 20/21 and 30/32 combed yarns rose by 7% and 5% respectively compared to early March. The price of polyester staple fiber rose by 13% [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The issuance of 300,000 tons of import sliding - duty quotas is likely to benefit US cotton and narrow the domestic - foreign price difference, with limited impact on domestic cotton supply. Zhengzhou cotton may follow the upward trend of US cotton. Although cotton has declined due to the overall market atmosphere, the decline is expected to be limited [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: - Unilateral: In the short - term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton change little. It is advisable to build long positions on dips rather than chasing highs [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Wait and see [7]. - **Cotton - yarn Industry News**: - Spinning enterprises are actively purchasing raw materials. The pure - cotton yarn market has good trading, but downstream orders are weakening. Spinning enterprises are reluctant to lower prices, and the transaction price center has little change [8]. - The all - cotton grey fabric market has little change, with continuous sales. Weaving factories have ongoing orders, mainly for domestic sales. Export inquiries are active, but orders need further confirmation. Fabric prices are stable, and factories are trying to reduce inventory [8]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price difference, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [9][11][15][16][18][19][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", with a short - term amplitude of -5% - 5%, medium - term amplitude of -5% - 5%, and long - term amplitude of -5% - 5% [4][131] 2. Core View of the Report - Northeast corn supply is tightening, while the downstream has low inventory and replenishment demand, which supports the lower limit of the futures market. Policy measures such as increased wheat and rice supply may cause short - term market pullbacks, but the expected decline is limited. Long - term trends should consider factors like weather [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The selling progress in Northeast China is nearly 80%, with limited remaining grain at the grass - roots level and tightening supply. In North China, the selling progress is slow, but the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong's deep - processing industry indicates an increase in channel supply. Attention should be paid to potential substitutes and policy - sourced grain supplies such as imported grains, increased wheat policy - based releases (up to 800,000 tons/week), and the expected auction of aged rice [4] - **Demand**: Feed demand is neutral - bullish. Feed enterprises have low inventory days and only replenish based on rigid demand due to deep losses in pig farming profits and meager poultry farming profits. Deep - processing demand is also neutral - bullish, with an increase in corn consumption and a rapid rise in starch processing profits, which support corn prices, while alcohol production rates and profits remain low [4] - **Inventory**: It is bullish. The corn inventory at north and south ports is accumulating but the absolute quantity is still low. Feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises also have low inventory levels, providing price elasticity and supporting the market's replenishment expectations [4] - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The basis is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, indicating that the spot market is relatively strong due to regional supply shortages [4] - **Profit**: It is bearish. Pig self - breeding and fattening and purchased piglet fattening are both in a loss state, while corn starch processing profits are rising rapidly [4] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. From the perspective of the basis, the futures market valuation is at a neutral level [4] - **Macro and Policy**: It is bearish. The domestic policy aims to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and measures such as increased wheat release and expected rice auction pose potential regulatory risks [4] - **Investment View**: It is expected to oscillate. Tight supply in Northeast China and low - level inventory in the middle and lower reaches support the market, while policy measures may cause short - term pullbacks, with limited decline expected [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading is expected to oscillate, and arbitrage trading should be on hold. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Price Trends**: Charts show the basis trend of the main corn futures contract, prices at Jinzhou Port, Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Shekou Port, etc [6][7] - **Positioning**: The position is at a high level, with charts showing the position changes of corn contracts 01, 03, 05, 09, etc [12][13] - **Spread**: Charts present the spread between different corn contracts, such as C03 - C05 and C05 - C09 [19] 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Selling Progress**: The selling progress charts in Northeast and North China show that Northeast China's selling progress is relatively fast [23] - **Channel Supply**: There is an increase in channel supply, as shown by the arrival volume at north ports and the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong's deep - processing industry [26][28] - **Imported Grains**: In January and February, the import of grains decreased, while the import profit of US corn was at a high level [35] - **Port Conditions**: Ports are accumulating inventory, but inventory levels remain low, including north and south port corn inventory and Guangdong Port's corn inventory [42][45][46] - **Feed Industry**: Feed enterprises have low inventory days, and the monthly feed production volume is presented in charts. Pig and poultry farming profits are generally not good, and pig prices are at a low level [49][51][53] - **Deep - processing Industry**: Starch processing profits are rising rapidly, but starch inventory is at a high level. Alcohol production rates and profits are low. Starch demand in papermaking has a high start - up rate but low profits [76][86][94] - **Wheat Market**: Wheat prices are firm, and attention should be paid to changes in its feed cost - effectiveness [102] 3.4 Overseas Corn Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **March Report**: In the 2025/26 season, the corn stock - to - consumption ratio of major exporting countries has decreased [113] - **US Corn**: The US corn stock - to - consumption ratio has decreased, and its export sales performance is good, including total exports and exports to China [118][121]

Report Overview - The report is the Weekly Report on Meal and Oil by Yangtze River Futures, dated March 23, 2026, focusing on the meal and oil industries [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Soybean Meal - Due to lower - than - expected Brazilian shipments, tightened domestic supply - demand, and cost increases from rising crude oil prices, the bottom of soybean meal prices has been lifted. However, recent acceleration in shipments has put pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to Brazilian shipments and auctions [6] Oils - In the short term, the ongoing Middle - East war and the risk of further escalation continue to support international crude oil and vegetable oil prices. But the risk of global economic recession and the expected increase in supply in the second quarter limit the upside of oil prices. Oils are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with soybean and rapeseed oils likely to perform better than palm oil. It is recommended to roll long on oils and gradually reduce previous long positions [75] Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Price Performance - As of March 19, the spot price in East China was 3,290 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2605 contract closed at 3,029 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 05 + 270 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. Spot prices are strong in March - April due to de - stocking expectations, while the 05 contract price is under pressure in May due to improved supply - demand [6][8] 1.2 Supply - The March USDA report maintained US and Brazilian soybean production and slightly lowered Argentine production, with the global soybean harvest remaining abundant. Brazilian soybean harvest progress has accelerated, but domestic logistics issues have increased freight costs. The expected arrival of soybeans in China in March - April has been further reduced, and soybeans and soybean meal are in a de - stocking cycle, with supply - demand tightening. Recent shipment progress has accelerated [6] 1.3 Demand - China's pig inventory remains high, but recent losses in pig farming may lead to a decline in pig inventory in the second half of the year if losses continue. Poultry inventory is high, supporting soybean meal demand. However, due to the rise in corn prices, wheat substitution has increased, and the proportion of soybean meal added has decreased. Overall, soybean meal demand remains high, but recent price increases have weakened downstream purchasing sentiment. As of March 13, national soybean inventory was 5.4861 million tons, down 240,600 tons month - on - month and up 2.31 million tons year - on - year; soybean meal inventory was 627,300 tons, down 133,200 tons month - on - month and down 55,700 tons year - on - year [6] 1.4 Cost - Based on the current US soybean price of 1,150 cents, a premium of 150 cents, and an oil - meal ratio of 2.9, the theoretical price of soybean meal is 2,980 yuan/ton. The announced planting cost of US soybeans in the 2026/27 season is 1,218 cents per bushel, and it may rise further if crude oil prices continue to increase. Import crushing margins have improved, with the margin for Brazilian soybeans at around 100 yuan/ton, which is at a relatively good level compared to historical periods [6] 2. Oils 2.1 Price Performance - As of the week ending March 20, the palm oil 05 contract fell 50 yuan/ton to 9,718 yuan/ton; the 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell 90 yuan/ton to 9,750 yuan/ton; the palm oil 05 basis fell 40 yuan/ton to 32 yuan/ton. The soybean oil 05 contract fell 62 yuan/ton to 8,628 yuan/ton; the fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 120 yuan/ton to 8,810 yuan/ton; the soybean oil 05 basis fell 58 yuan/ton to 182 yuan/ton. The rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 55 yuan/ton to 9,876 yuan/ton; the third - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 40 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil 05 basis fell 95 yuan/ton to 374 yuan/ton [75][77] 2.2 Palm Oil - The February MPOB report's downward adjustment of ending inventory was less than expected, with a neutral - to - bearish impact. However, Malaysian palm oil production continued to decline in March (SPPOMA reported a 5.28% decline in output from January 1 to 15), and exports improved significantly (a 38.06 - 45.59% increase in exports from March 1 to 20). In Indonesia, if oil transportation is blocked, domestic biodiesel consumption may increase, which is positive for domestic palm oil consumption. In China, palm oil arrivals increased significantly in February, and inventory has been accumulating due to weak demand. As of March 13, domestic palm oil inventory rose to 842,000 tons. However, the expected arrivals in March - April are low, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation [75] 2.3 Soybean Oil - The March USDA report had a neutral impact. Market attention is on the Middle - East situation, US soybean demand, and South American soybean production. Although Trump's planned visit to China in late March was postponed, it has been rescheduled to mid - May, alleviating concerns about China not fulfilling its US soybean purchase agreement. The White House plans to hold a biodiesel event on March 27, and the market is highly concerned about the possible release of a biodiesel blending policy. In the first quarter, the arrival of soybeans in China decreased seasonally, and tightened quarantine policies have made it difficult for Brazilian soybeans to clear customs, which is beneficial for reducing soybean oil inventory. As of March 13, soybean oil inventory decreased slightly to 890,900 tons. However, Brazil will send a delegation to China to discuss soybean quarantine issues, and the number of Brazilian soybean shipments to China has begun to increase. It is expected that a record - high volume of South American soybeans will enter China in April - May, limiting the further reduction of soybean oil inventory [75] 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The Middle - East war has pushed up international crude oil prices and freight rates, increasing the cost of imported rapeseed. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hindered the transportation of Dubai rapeseed oil to China, and the clearance time for Russian crude rapeseed oil has been extended, exacerbating the tight supply of domestic rapeseed oil. However, China's comprehensive import tax on Canadian rapeseed has been reduced to 15%, and there are reports that China has started to increase Canadian rapeseed purchases. The previously purchased 10 shipments of Canadian rapeseed will arrive in China between March and May, and it is expected that the tight supply of rapeseed oil will ease after March. As of March 13, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 151,000 tons, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 281,500 tons, showing a slight increase [75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the industry is "oscillating weakly" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the analysis of the meal market, suggesting that the soybean meal market is affected by factors such as the recovery of Brazilian shipping and the expected increase in US soybean planting area, with a neutral - bearish outlook. Rapeseed meal is mainly influenced by short - term supply shortages and medium - term supply increases, following the soybean meal trend but weaker [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Brazilian soybean shipping has basically returned to normal, with an expected shipment of about 10 million tons in March, alleviating supply concerns. The visit of the Brazilian agriculture minister to China and the Brazilian trucker strike are new uncertainties. Global soybean production is expected to be abundant, and the expected increase in the area of new US soybean crops will suppress price upside. Rapeseed meal has a short - term supply shortage but a medium - term supply increase [5] - **Demand**: Short - term soybean meal demand has rigid support due to a large breeding inventory, but the concern about shortages in April has eased, and long - term demand is expected to decline due to capacity reduction. Rapeseed meal is in the off - season of aquaculture, but there is an expected seasonal increase in demand from April to June, and the expanding spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may divert some soybean meal demand [5] - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are currently high, but domestic soybean meal is expected to further reduce inventory in April. The national rapeseed meal inventory has increased weekly and is at a low level, supporting near - month prices [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is widening, and the M05 - M09 spread is weakening. The M05 - M09 reverse spread is recommended [5] - **Profit**: The Brazilian CNF premium for soybean meal has risen, and the price has oscillated downward this week, leading to a decline in the crushing profit. The rapeseed meal crushing profit has increased this week [5] - **Valuation**: Soybean meal is at a relatively low historical valuation and is sensitive to positive factors. Rapeseed meal is at a relatively low price and has room for valuation repair [5] - **Macro and Policy**: The ongoing Middle East conflict has increased oil and global logistics costs, bringing risk premiums to agricultural products. The US biodiesel policy supports long - term US soybean demand. China has suspended the additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Brazilian agriculture minister's visit to China and the Sino - US trade talks in April on soybean trade [5] - **Investment View**: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term attention should be paid to international trade policy changes and US soybean planting area adjustments. For the spread, attention should be paid to the M05 - M09 reverse spread opportunity. Rapeseed meal mainly follows the soybean meal trend but is weaker [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate weakly, and the M05 - M09 reverse spread is recommended. Policy and weather should be monitored [5] 3.2 Meal Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In March, the 25/26 global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio was raised [30] - **Canadian Rapeseed Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: The March report shows a downward adjustment of the Canadian rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio [37] - **US Soybean Domestic Crushing Profit**: The crushing profit is at a high level [43] - **US Soybean Export Sales Progress**: The export sales progress is slow [51] - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest Rate**: The harvest rate is presented in the data [58] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Import and Inventory**: Data on soybean and rapeseed import volume, inventory, and related costs such as CNF premiums and import crushing profits are provided [60][62][66][68] - **Oil Mill Operation and Sales**: Data on the operation rate, crushing volume, sales volume, and consumption of oil mills are presented [76][78][86][90] - **Feed and Livestock Farming**: Data on feed production, livestock farming profits, and related market indicators are provided [97][99][107][113]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The current macro data remains stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. The monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond market, stock index, precious metals, and various commodity futures markets are affected by factors such as the Iran - US conflict, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, with different trends and investment suggestions. [6][10][12] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.42%, 0.09%, 0.06%, and 0.01% respectively. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR on March 20, 2026, were 3.0% and 3.5% respectively. The US is considering the next - stage plan and possible peace talks with Iran. The market is expected to face pressure, and caution is advised. [5][6] Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell 0.28%, 0.95%, 1.16%, and 1.26% respectively. With weak domestic economic recovery momentum, low corporate profit growth, and low asset valuation, the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to wait on the sidelines. [8][10] Precious Metals - Last trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver fell 2.15% and 2.00% respectively. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold, but due to the previous sharp rise and the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. [12] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly corrected. The short - term Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment, while the medium - term price is determined by supply - demand. The demand for rebar is still in a downward trend, but the supply pressure has eased. The price may rebound but with limited space. The trend of hot - rolled coil is expected to be similar. Investors can look for low - position long opportunities. [14] Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The short - term Middle - East conflict may affect sentiment, and the demand is expected to expand after the end of key meetings, but the supply is abundant. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term, and investors can look for low - position long opportunities. [16] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The short - term Middle - East conflict may affect sentiment. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is in a volatile pattern, and investors can look for low - position buy opportunities. [17] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron rose 3.46% and 1.58% respectively. The cost is in a narrow - range upward trend, the supply is loose, and the demand is weak. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking long - position profit - taking opportunities. [19][20] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to the easing of the US - Israel - Iran war. Speculators increased their net long positions, and the US energy companies reduced the number of oil and gas rigs. The US approved the relaxation of sanctions on Iranian oil products. The price may be supported, but due to the change in the war situation, it is advisable to wait on the sidelines. [21][22] Polyolefins - Last trading day, the PP and LLDPE markets in Hangzhou and Yuyao declined. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the cost pressure increased, the industry's operating rate decreased, and the supply decreased. The downstream demand increased slightly. It is necessary to operate with caution due to geopolitical influence, and it is advisable to wait on the sidelines. [24] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose 1.82%. The current price is mainly supported by cost and is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to device maintenance, crude oil price, and tire export orders. [26][28] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber fell. The market is in a game between the cost of synthetic rubber pushed up by the Middle - East conflict and the approaching domestic tapping season and inventory pressure. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile trend. [29][30] PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract fell during the day and rose at night. The market is in a game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by the overseas conflict, the spring demand, and high inventory. The price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile trend, but the upside is restricted by high inventory. [31][33] Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract fell. The current contradiction lies between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend, but the downside is limited due to cost support and approaching demand season. [34][35] PX - Last trading day, the PX2605 main contract fluctuated. The PXN spread and short - process profit are compressed, the supply is slightly tight, and the demand is gradually recovering. Affected by the uncertain geopolitical situation, the price may be volatile and may have a correction risk. It is necessary to operate with caution. [36][37] PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fluctuated. The processing fee has adjusted, the demand from downstream is weak, and the price is mainly affected by the change in the cost end. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, it is advisable to operate with caution. [38] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, the demand from downstream increased, and the price is expected to be stronger than other polyester varieties in the short - term. However, due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, it is necessary to pay attention to the situation of the Strait and the progress of the spring inspection. [39][40] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract fluctuated. The supply decreased slightly, the demand from downstream is weak, and the price is mainly affected by the cost end. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption progress. [41] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract fell sharply. The cost support weakened, the demand from downstream is weak, and due to the changeable Middle - East situation, the raw material price may fluctuate greatly. It is advisable to participate with caution. [42][43] Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply remains high, the inventory decreased slightly, and the demand from downstream is weak. The price is expected to be in a short - term volatile adjustment. [44][45] Glass - Last trading day, the glass main contract fell. The production lines decreased, the inventory decreased slowly, the demand from downstream is weak, and the cost pressure remains. The price is expected to be volatile. [46] Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the caustic soda main contract rose. The supply decreased slightly, the demand from downstream is good, and the price of 50% caustic soda may rise. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas device dynamics and export orders. [47][48] Pulp - Last trading day, the pulp main contract rose. The port inventory decreased, the domestic supply increased slightly, the demand from downstream is weak, and the price of pulp is expected to be supported. The risk of coniferous pulp fluctuation is relatively high, while broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable. [49][50] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract fell. Affected by the US - Iran conflict and resource nationalism in Africa, the supply of lithium ore may be in a tight balance, the demand from downstream is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to have strong support below, but the short - term volatility may increase. [51] Copper - Last trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was almost eliminated, and the dollar index rose. The supply of copper is tight, the demand is structurally growing, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend with a bottom. [52][53] Aluminum - Last trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts fell. Alumina is in a cost - driven rebound, and electrolytic aluminum is under pressure due to the game between strong expectation and weak reality. The price of alumina may be in a volatile adjustment, and the price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend with a bottom. [54][55] Zinc - Last trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose slightly. The supply of zinc is increasing, the demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and affected by the Middle - East situation and the strong dollar, the price is expected to be under pressure. [56][57] Lead - Last trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose slightly. The supply of lead is supported in the short - term, the demand is weak, and affected by the macro pressure on the non - ferrous sector, the price is expected to be in a weak - volatile trend. [58][59] Tin - Last trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose. Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the price may be volatile. The supply of tin is slightly eased, the demand is supported by the emerging field, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to have support below, but it is necessary to control risks due to the uncertainty of the overseas situation. [60] Nickel - Last trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose. Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the price may be volatile. The supply of nickel ore may be tight, the cost may rise, the demand from downstream is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price of primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events. [61][62] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell, and the soybean oil main contract rose slightly. Brazilian soybean harvest is approaching 60%, and the dollar is rising, which suppresses the price of soybeans. The short - term supply of soybeans may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. It is advisable to wait and see due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East conflict. [63][64] Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market was closed on March 20 and 23, and will resume trading on March 24. The export volume of palm oil products increased from March 1 - 20, and the domestic import volume increased. The inventory is at a relatively high level in the past 7 years. It is advisable to consider reducing or closing long positions. [65][66] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed is oscillating near the key support level. The domestic import volume of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal is large. The inventory of rapeseed is at a low level in the past 7 years, the inventory of rapeseed meal is at a high level, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is at a medium level. It is advisable to wait and see. [67] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic Zheng cotton fell, and the overseas cotton market was weak. The domestic cotton import volume increased in 2026, and the issuance of the sliding - scale quota increased and was advanced, which is a short - term negative factor. However, the global cotton production is expected to decrease in the new year, and the medium - and long - term price is expected to be strong. [68][70] Sugar - Last trading day, domestic Zheng sugar rebounded slightly, and the overseas raw sugar rose. The domestic sugar import volume increased, the production is expected to increase, and the industrial inventory is higher. The increase in oil price will change the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new season, and the medium - and long - term sugar price bottom is expected to rise. [71][73] Apples - Last trading day, apple futures were strong. As the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking is in full swing, the demand in the sales area is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The apple market is expected to maintain a stable - to - strong trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory - removal rate and the weather during the flowering period. [74][76] Hogs - Last trading day, the main contract of hogs fell. The supply of hogs is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short - term. The government has started the purchase - storage mechanism, but the support is insufficient. It is advisable to hold short positions. [77] Eggs - Last trading day, the main contract of eggs rose. The cost of eggs is rising, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level in the past 10 years, and the supply in March is expected to remain high. It is advisable to gradually take profit on short positions in the far - month contracts. [78][79] Corn and Starch - Last trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts rose. The northern port inventory is low, the demand from feed enterprises is increasing, and the price is strong. The South American corn planting is progressing smoothly, and the dollar is rising, which brings pressure. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the demand for corn starch is slightly improving. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of the far - month out - of - the - money put option when the price rises sharply. [80][82] Logs - Last trading day, the main contract of logs rose. The shipment of New Zealand logs to China increased, the downstream demand improved, and the terminal consumption is polarized. The cost pressure increased, and the price is expected to be in a high - level volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the overseas quotation, shipment dynamics, and downstream consumption. [83][85]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For sugar, due to the current continuous discount of raw sugar prices to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price and the potential reduction of the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio in Brazil's new crushing season after April this year, along with alleviated domestic production pressure at the end of the crushing season, sugar prices may still have room to rebound. It is advisable to consider going long on dips [3]. - For cotton, the newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is short - term negative for Zhengzhou cotton prices and positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the continuous increase in downstream opening rates, Zhengzhou cotton prices have found temporary support at the bottom and may rebound. It is recommended to try going long on dips [4][6]. - For protein meal, the March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices fluctuate sharply, driving protein meal prices to fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - For oils, affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices have risen significantly, driving oil prices higher. Before the end of the US - Iran incident, crude oil prices will remain high, and Indonesia is expected to tighten palm oil exports. It is bullish on oils in the medium term [12]. - For eggs, although the production capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level is still high, and the pace of capacity reduction has slowed down. The spot price is strong due to pulsed demand, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term contracts, and pay attention to the support from rising cost in the far - term contracts [14]. - For pigs, the supply is in a concentrated release period while the demand is weak. The spot price is weak, and there is still a lack of a basis for price increases in the medium term. The futures price has accelerated its decline. It is recommended to wait and see for now [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons each compared to the same period last year, with a total increase of 440,000 tons. As of February, the national cumulative sugar production was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; the monthly sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; and the industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. As of March 15, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production reached 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons. The ISO predicted at the end of February that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season would be 181.29 million tons [2]. Cotton - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year; and imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared to the same period last year. China's National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton tariff - rate quota for processing trade imports outside the tariff quota. From March 5th to March 12th, the US current - year cotton export sales were 46,400 tons, with cumulative export sales of 2.1919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 178,400 tons; among which, the export to China was 2,400 tons that week, with cumulative exports of 106,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,800 tons. As of the week of March 20th, the spinning mill's operating rate was 78.6%, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 percentage points; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 240,000 tons compared to the February prediction and an increase of 540,000 tons compared to the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15 percentage points and an increase of 2.4 percentage points compared to the previous season [4]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: S&P Global predicted that the US corn planting area in 2026 would reach 95.2 million acres, higher than the 95 million acres predicted in January; the US soybean planting area was predicted to be 85 million acres, higher than the 84.5 million acres predicted in January. From March 5th to March 12th, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, with current - year cumulative exports of 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; among which, the export to China was 80,000 tons that week, with current - year cumulative exports to China of 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 13th, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 15.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 427.17 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 990,000 tons compared to the February prediction and an increase of 28,000 tons compared to the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points and a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous season [8]. Oils - **Market Information**: The President of Indonesia stated that Indonesian coal, crude palm oil and its derivative production enterprises were not allowed to export relevant products before meeting domestic demand. From March 1st to 15th, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.28% month - on - month. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy's deputy minister said that the government was studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. In January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 490,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 860,000 tons. In February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons; exports were 1.13 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 330,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons; inventory was 2.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons. From March 1st to 15th, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 921,000 tons (AmSpec data) and 926,000 tons (ITS data), an increase of 56.9% and 43.5% respectively compared to the same period last month. As of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 120,000 tons and basically the same as the same period last year. In the week of March 13th, the inventory of three major domestic sample oils was 2.01 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons [11]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were stable with some increases yesterday. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas rose by 0.02 yuan to 3.19 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained unchanged at 3 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao rose by 0.09 yuan to 3.07 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed varied, most traders were confident about the future market, the inventory at each link was appropriate, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that today's national egg prices will mostly remain stable with a few increases [13]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig prices continued to fall over the weekend. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.08 yuan to 9.94 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan dropped by 0.11 yuan to 9.76 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guangxi dropped by 0.1 yuan to 9.54 yuan per kilogram. The slaughter weight of farmers was generally large, and most farmers were reducing the weight of pigs. The supply was active, the downstream demand recovered slowly, the market sales were poor, and farmers were reducing prices to sell. It is expected that today's pig prices will fall in the north and remain stable in the south [16].