巴拉圭总统自2023年就职以来，已重申这一外交立场，并在2024年达沃斯论坛上表示，台湾地区在提升全球价值链方面具有重要作用。这一立场与南美的外 交趋势相背离。自2023年洪都拉斯与中国建交以来，台湾地区在南美的邦交国已减少至12个。巴拉圭的外交立场使其错失了中国提出的一带一路项目中的诸 多机会，比如基础设施投资，而邻国巴西和阿根廷则从中受益，经济增长率比巴拉圭高出2个百分点。巴拉圭在货币政策上的看法显然滞后于时代，人民币 的国际化进程已经从单纯的贸易结算扩展到了投资和储备领域，2025年人民币跨境支付的占比预计将达到全球的4%，远高于前几年。巴拉圭对人民币的贬 低态度，实则是在为美元的全球霸权服务，这一做法也阻碍了巴拉圭经济的多元化。 巴拉圭的经济对美元结算依赖极为严重，其外汇储备中有高达90%是美元，这也使得该国对人民币国际化的进程持怀疑态度。这一立场与巴拉圭的贸易结构 密切相关，巴拉圭的出口主要以农产品为主，结算方式通常采用美元，以此规避汇率风险。然而，这种看法忽视了人民币国际化的显著进展。自2016年以 来，人民币的跨境支付额已经增长了超过十倍，现已覆盖全球180多个国家，并在金砖国家机制中发挥着越来 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-12 苹果产区交易清淡，红枣新货价差较大 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9505元/吨，较前一日变动-5元/吨，幅度-0.05%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1305，较前一日变动+5；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1105，较前一日变动+5。 近期市场资讯，晚富士库存富士主流行情维持稳定，部分产区价格随质量下滑偏弱运行，整体成交氛围不旺。西 部产区客商零星寻货，多以果农两级货源为主，成交有限，甘肃部分产区果农一般货源开始交易，价格区间随质 量下滑略降低，成交尚可；部分客商包装自存货源补充市场。山东产区零星出库，外贸渠道小果走货放缓，少量 维纳斯、奶油果按需出库，其余货源基本尚未开始交易。栖霞80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5元/斤，65#、 70#出库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农货半商品出库价格3.8-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静宁果农一般通货出库 价格3.7-4.5元 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 1数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/12/12 ==== 18/19 ===== 22/23 ----- 19/20 ----- 23/24 == ===== 20/21 —— 24/25 - 25/26 RM1-5 78 1500 9 1200 价差数据 豆粕-菜粕 595 10 900 现货价差(广东) 300 豆粕-菜粕 674 28 盘面价差(主力) 05/25 06/25 04/24 07/26 08/26 09/26 10/27 11/27 12/28 03/24 升贴水-连续月 产地 美元兑人民币汇率 盘面榨利(元/吨) 涨跌 (美分/蒲) #N/A 22. 00 巴西 0 143 2025年大豆CNF升贴水走势图-连续月 (美分/蒲式耳) 2025年进口大享盘面毛利(元/吨) ----- 巴南1月 ----- 巴南2月 ----- 巴南3月 ----- 巴南4月 ----- 巴南6月 ----- 巴西6月 ---- 巴西1月 ===== 巴西4月 === 巴西 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market on Thursday showed a widespread decline. The A - share market was affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and corporate earnings reports, and it may continue to explore the bottom on Friday. The bond market continued to repair, with the long - end performing stronger. In the agricultural product market, different varieties had different trends, with some showing potential for a rebound and some in a state of shock. The black metal market was affected by factors such as raw material prices and policies, and steel prices were weakly volatile. The non - ferrous metal market was generally driven by the weakening of the US dollar, with some metals rising. The energy and chemical market was under pressure from supply and demand, and most varieties showed a weakening trend [19][22][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the market fell across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index and other major indices declined, and stock index futures also followed the decline of the spot market. The Fed's interest rate cut and corporate earnings reports affected market sentiment. On Friday, the A - share market may explore the bottom due to inertia, and it is recommended to wait for the market to oversell and then go long on the dips. Consider IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage when the discount widens, and use bullish spreads for options [19][20][21]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central economic work conference's statements on fiscal and monetary policies weakened the probability of an unexpected fiscal policy next year and made policy rate cuts still expected. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions in TL contracts on rallies and pay attention to potential futures - spot arbitrage opportunities in TF contracts [22][23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - CBOT soybean index rose slightly, and the US soybean export sales data showed some changes. In the context of a potentially large harvest in South America, international soybeans have a limited upside, but the domestic soybean meal may have a phased rebound due to factors such as profit losses. It is recommended to lay out a small number of long positions, narrow the MRM spread, and sell wide - straddle options [27][28]. Sugar - International sugar prices were oscillating at a low level, and domestic sugar prices also showed a similar trend. Brazil's sugar production was approaching the end of the season, and the supply pressure was gradually easing. In China, although the new sugar season had an increasing production, the high production cost provided some support. It is recommended to build long positions on the dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options at low levels [31][33]. Oilseeds and Oils - The external market of oils showed different trends. Malaysian palm oil had a risk of inventory accumulation, while domestic soybean oil was gradually reducing inventory, and rapeseed oil was expected to continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - short trading in a band - trading manner, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [35][36]. Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn stabilized, while the domestic northeast corn price was weak, and the port price declined. The 03 corn contract was expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the 03 contract on corrections, go long on the 05 and 07 contracts on long - term declines, conduct 3 - 7 corn reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options [39][40]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs was generally stable, but the overall supply pressure still existed. It is recommended to mainly hold short positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle options [41][42]. Peanuts - The peanut spot price was stable, and large - scale oil mills started to purchase. The 01 peanut contract may have a downward space. It is recommended to lightly go short on the 01 peanut contract on rallies, conduct 1 - 5 peanut reverse arbitrage, and sell pk603 - C - 8200 options [44][46]. Eggs - Egg prices were mainly stable. The recent reduction in the number of culled chickens had eased the supply pressure. It is recommended to expect the near - term contracts to oscillate in a range and consider building long positions on the far - term contracts on the dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [47][49]. Apples - The apple inventory was low, and the fundamentals were strong. It is recommended that the apple price may oscillate at a high level, conduct long 1 and short 10 arbitrage, and wait and see for options [52][53]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The external market of cotton was weak, but the domestic new cotton sales were good, and there were positive factors such as a possible reduction in the planting area in Xinjiang next year. It is recommended to go long on the dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [56][58]. Black Metals Steel - Affected by raw materials such as coal and coke, steel prices were weakly volatile. Although the steel inventory continued to decline, the demand was affected by the season. It is recommended that the steel price will continue to be weakly volatile, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - rebar spread on rallies, and wait and see for options [62][63]. Coking Coal and Coke - Mongolia planned to increase coal exports, and the market expected a weak trend. The coking coal price continued to decline, and the spot price was also weak. It is recommended that the double - coking futures will continue to be weakly volatile [65][66]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore was generally stable, and the domestic demand for steel products was weak. It is recommended to adopt a bearish view on iron ore, wait and see for arbitrage and options [72][73]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, the cost had some support, but the demand was under pressure. For ferromanganese, the cost was rising, but the demand was also weak. It is recommended that ferroalloys will oscillate at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [74][75]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Affected by the weakening of the US dollar, gold and silver prices rose. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options for silver [77][78]. Platinum and Palladium - Driven by the weakening of the US dollar and the bullish trend of precious metals, platinum and palladium showed a phased upward trend. It is recommended to go long on platinum on the dips based on the 5 - day moving average, wait and see for palladium, conduct long platinum and short palladium arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options [81][82]. Copper - The copper price reached a new high due to the weakening of the US dollar. Although the supply was tight in 2026, the downstream demand was insufficient. It is recommended that the copper price will be strongly volatile, pay attention to inter - period positive arbitrage opportunities, and wait and see for options [84][88][89]. Alumina - The alumina price was weak due to slow warehouse receipt digestion and high inventory. It is recommended that the alumina price will continue to be weak, wait and see for arbitrage and options [91][93]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Driven by macro and micro factors, the aluminum price rebounded. It is recommended that the aluminum price will be strongly driven by the macro - fundamentals, wait and see for arbitrage and options [97][98]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Affected by the market sentiment, the aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. The spot market was weak, and the demand was weakening. It is recommended that the aluminum alloy will be strong along with the sector, wait and see for arbitrage and options [98][101]. Zinc - The zinc price was strongly volatile due to the reduction of domestic social inventory. It is recommended to hold long positions and wait and see for arbitrage and options [103][104]. Lead - The lead price oscillated in a range. The domestic supply of secondary lead had a reduction expectation, but the consumption was gradually weakening. It is recommended to try short positions on rallies [107][108]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillated downward due to the oversupply situation. It is recommended that the nickel price will continue to decline, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [109][111][112]. Stainless Steel - Affected by the decline of the nickel price, the stainless steel price oscillated at a low level. It is recommended that the stainless steel price will oscillate at a low level, wait and see for arbitrage [113][114]. Industrial Silicon - Affected by the air pollution warning in Xinjiang, the industrial silicon price may be adjusted in the short term. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions, and aggressive investors can participate in short - term long positions, conduct long polysilicon and short industrial silicon arbitrage, and stop losses on selling out - of - the - money call options [115]. Polysilicon - Although the downstream demand was under pressure, the polysilicon enterprises had a strong willingness to support the price. It is recommended to buy on corrections, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy both call and put options [116][117]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was running at a high level, but there was a pressure of inventory accumulation in the medium term. It is recommended to buy after a sufficient correction in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [119][120]. Tin - Due to the escalation of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the tin price rose strongly. It is recommended that the tin price will be strong in the near future, wait and see for options [120][122]. Shipping Container Shipping - The spot freight rate showed some improvements. The 02 contract had incorporated some price - increase expectations and was expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to partially take profits and partially hold long positions in the EC2602 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [125][126]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The crude oil supply - demand pressure was difficult to change, and the price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to be bearish on the short - term trend, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the crude oil inter - month spread is weak, and wait and see for options [128][129]. Asphalt - The asphalt price was affected by the decline of crude oil prices and was expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended that the BU2602 contract will oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options for the BU2602 contract [131][132][133]. Fuel Oil - The low - sulfur fuel oil supply was frequently disturbed by device changes, and the high - sulfur fuel oil was expected to be weakly stable. It is recommended that the fuel oil price will be weakly volatile, the low - sulfur cracking is neutral, the high - sulfur cracking is weak, and wait and see for options [134][136][137]. PX & PTA - The PX supply was abundant, and the PTA had an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that the PX & PTA price will be weakly volatile, conduct PTA1 and 5 contract reverse arbitrage, and sell both options [138][139][140]. BZ & EB - The pure benzene supply was stable and the demand decreased, and the benzene - styrene basis weakened. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage and options [141][143][144]. Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol inventory had a de - stocking pressure, and the price was falling. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [145][146]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber supply - demand situation was weak, and the processing fee was under pressure. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [147][148]. Bottle Chips - The bottle chips supply - demand was relatively loose, and the processing fee lacked an upward drive. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [150]. Propylene - The propylene inventory was high, and the price was under pressure. It is recommended to go short on rallies, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [151][153]. Plastic PP - The PE capacity utilization rate was stable, and the PP production increased. It is recommended to wait and see for the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts, pay attention to the pressure at recent high points, conduct long L2605 and short PP2605 arbitrage, and wait and see for options [154][155][156]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price was weak due to the large supply and weak demand. It is recommended that the price will be in a weak trend, wait and see for arbitrage and options [159][160]. PVC - The PVC price continued to decline due to the increase in supply and weak demand. It is recommended that the price will have difficulty in rebounding, wait and see for arbitrage and options [162][163][164]. Soda Ash - The soda ash supply increased and the demand decreased, and the price was weakening. It is recommended that the price will continue to be weak in the medium - long term, pay attention to the opportunity of short soda ash and long glass spread in the 05 contract, and wait and see for options [165][166][167]. Glass - The glass price oscillated downward due to the weak fundamental situation. It is recommended that the price will be in a weak trend, pay attention to the strategy opportunity of short soda ash and long glass in the 05 contract, conduct reverse arbitrage of 1 - 5 contracts, and wait and see for options [168][169][170]. Methanol - The methanol price continued to decline. It is recommended to go short on the 01 contract in the short term, pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [172][173]. Urea - The urea trading volume increased, but the futures price continued to decline. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile in the short - and medium - term, and pay attention to policy changes [174][175]. Pulp - The pulp spot price was strong, but the demand was mainly rigid. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try short positions based on the previous high, wait and see for arbitrage and options [176][178][179]. Logs - The log fundamentals were weakening. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 03 contract, gradually take profits on the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options [181][183]. Offset Printing Paper - The supply pressure of offset printing paper remained high, and the transmission of high pulp prices was less than expected. It is recommended to conduct short operations, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell OP2602 - C - 4100 options [184][185][187]. Natural Rubber - The Thai rubber water - cup price difference continued to weaken, and the tire production increased month - on - month. It is recommended to try short positions on the RU 05 contract, hold long positions on the NR 02 contract, hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread, and wait and see for options [188][190][191]. Butadiene Rubber - The high - cis butadiene rubber production decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is recommended to hold long positions on the BR 02 contract, hold the BR2602 - NR2602 spread, and wait and see for options [192][193][195].

农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花偏强盘整，谷物类玉米和淀粉偏多窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 农产品期权 2025-12-12 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （ ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/12 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/12/05 | 2120 | 2280 | 2210 | 2470 | -15 | 40 | 275 | 2700 | 2820 | 117 | -107 | | 2025/12/08 | 2170 | 2280 | 2220 | 2460 | 19 | 30 | 272 | 2700 | 2820 | 156 | -104 | | 2025/12/09 | 2170 | 2260 | 2230 | 2450 | 24 | 40 | 262 | 2750 | 2820 | 183 | -55 | | 2025/12/10 | 2170 | 2240 | 2224 | 2440 | -1 ...

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12月9日，"2025榆林好产品下扬州"展览展销活动在扬州市京华城广场举行。 "期待两地群众携手并进，持续深化结对情谊、拓展协作领域、健全帮扶机制，共同续写扬榆协 作、互利共赢的新篇章。"榆林市副市长沈效说。 据了解，自2016年扬州与榆林结为友好城市、开展对口协作以来，两地始终坚持优势互补、合作共 赢，从产业共建到人才交流，从民生改善到文旅联动，持续探索协同路径，携手走出了一条双向赋能、 共同发展的道路。 今年1月至11月，扬州市通过"榆林好产品下扬州"年货节、端午集市、夜市展销等各类消费帮扶活 动，累计采购、帮销榆林农特产品金额达3.77亿元。（记者：苏欣雨 通讯员：白万能） 此次展览展销活动以"扬州好地方 榆林好产品"为主题，设立综合区、农产品区、文化产品区、美 食体验区、文旅展示区5个区域，米脂小米、横山羊肉、山地苹果、清涧黑毛土猪肉等榆林市百余种产 品参与展销。活动还进行了项目签约。 扬州市副市长陈骏表示，此次展览展销活动不仅可以丰富扬州市民的"菜篮子""果盘子"，还可以让 扬州市民近距离感受来自黄土高原的淳朴风情与厚重的文化底蕴。希望两市以本次展览展销活动为新起 点，进一步深化了解、加强对接，共同 ...

本报北京12月11日电 （记者郁静娴）11日，农业农村部联合北京、天津、河北、黑龙江、湖北、重 庆、广东广州、江苏南京、四川成都等地，在全国农业展览馆共同启动"品特产 寻年味"消费促进活 动。根据农业农村部的部署安排，各地将进一步落实《促进农产品消费实施方案》，抓住2026年元旦春 节"两节"消费旺季，谋划出台促消费务实举措，推动供需精准适配、创新消费场景、拓展消费空间，有 力有效扩大农产品消费，更好满足城乡居民节日消费需求。 此次消费促进活动将重点围绕五方面开展—— 发布一批"土特产"品牌年货目录，支持生鲜商超、直播电商等设立"土特产"品牌年货专区，引导企业加 强节日产品创新，推出一批营养健康、年味十足的农副产品。 推出一批营养健康消费活动，深入推进"健康饮食 合理膳食"科普宣传，聚焦节日期间常见膳食问题， 普及健康消费观念，引导居民调整饮食结构。 开展一批消费帮扶对接活动，用好东西部协作、中央单位定点帮扶、社会帮扶等机制，引导消费者采购 脱贫地区农副产品。 《 人民日报 》（ 2025年12月12日 02 版） (责编：袁勃、赵欣悦) 关注公众号：人民网财经 组织一批节日主题消费活动，开展"土特产"进社区 ...

本报北京12月11日电 （记者郁静娴）11日，农业农村部联合北京、天津、河北、黑龙江、湖北、重 庆、广东广州、江苏南京、四川成都等地，在全国农业展览馆共同启动"品特产寻年味"消费促进活动。 根据农业农村部的部署安排，各地将进一步落实《促进农产品消费实施方案》，抓住2026年元旦春 节"两节"消费旺季，谋划出台促消费务实举措，推动供需精准适配、创新消费场景、拓展消费空间，有 力有效扩大农产品消费，更好满足城乡居民节日消费需求。 此次消费促进活动将重点围绕五方面开展—— 发布一批"土特产"品牌年货目录，支持生鲜商超、直播电商等设立"土特产"品牌年货专区，引导企业加 强节日产品创新，推出一批营养健康、年味十足的农副产品。 开展一批消费帮扶对接活动，用好东西部协作、中央单位定点帮扶、社会帮扶等机制，引导消费者采购 脱贫地区农副产品。 （文章来源：人民日报） 提升一批农文旅融合消费活动，结合传统年俗、非物质文化遗产和"村字号"群众性文体活动，展示展销 特色农产品，推介乡村休闲旅游（冬季）精品景点线路，汇聚农事体验、加工观摩、民俗文化、民宿乡 韵等多元业态，打造一批沉浸式、体验式节日消费场景，吸引消费者品尝地道特产、感受 ...