Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The yield of treasury bonds has reached a short - term peak, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield at 1.85% may be the top in the future. Treasury bond futures are likely to fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short term [6][37]. - The overall economic situation in October shows that the manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line, the non - manufacturing business activity index is slightly above the boom - bust line, and the real estate market is still at the bottom, which is generally favorable for the bond market [9][24][32]. 3. Summary by Related Content Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, treasury bond futures rose continuously throughout the week. After the central bank governor announced the resumption of open - market treasury bond trading on October 27, treasury bond futures jumped significantly higher on Tuesday. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 1.43%, the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.62%, the 5 - year treasury bond rose 0.43%, and the 2 - year treasury bond rose 0.21% [4]. - The yield curve of treasury bond cash bonds shifted downward in parallel. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields decreased by 9BP, 5BP, 5BP, and 7BP respectively from October 24 to October 31 [6]. Manufacturing PMI - In October, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the seventh consecutive month. Affected by the double - holiday and external factors, the decline was larger than the seasonal factor. The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises showed different trends, with large enterprises slightly below the boom - bust line, medium - sized enterprises remaining stable, and small enterprises facing greater pressure [9]. - The production index in October was 49.7%, and the new order index was 48.8%, indicating a slowdown in production and a decline in market demand. However, new - energy - related industries such as equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing remained in the expansion range [12]. - The new export order index in October was 45.9%, and the import index was 46.8%, both showing a decline. It is expected that the new export order index will rebound significantly in November due to the Sino - US summit [14]. - The purchase price index of major raw materials in October was 52.5%, and the ex - factory price index was 47.5%. It is expected that the PPI in October will decline by about 2.3% year - on - year, the same as in September [17]. - The raw material inventory index in October was 47.3%, and the finished product inventory index was 48.1%. Manufacturing enterprises continued to be cautious about increasing inventory [20]. - The manufacturing employment index in October was 48.3%, and the production and business activity expectation index was 52.8%, showing a slight decline in the expectation of future prosperity [22]. Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index - In October, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%. The construction business activity index was 49.1%, and the service business activity index was 50.2%, showing a mild expansion [24]. - The new order index of the construction industry in October was 45.9%, and the employment index was 39.9%. The business activity expectation index was 56.0%, indicating a slight decline in the construction industry's prosperity [27]. - The new order index of the service industry in October was 46.0%, and the employment index was 46.1%. The business activity expectation index was 56.1%. Some industries such as railway transportation and aviation transportation were in a high - level prosperity range, while industries such as insurance and real estate were below the critical point [29]. Real Estate Market - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in October decreased by 25% year - on - year, and the decline widened. The national commercial housing sales are still at the bottom, and it is expected that the real estate development investment in October will still contract significantly, dragging down the construction industry [32]. Capital Market - This week, the short - term capital interest rate first rose and then fell, and the one - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate also declined [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the PMI data showed a combination of "manufacturing decline and non - manufacturing slight increase." The manufacturing PMI declined more than seasonally, presenting a "weak supply and demand" pattern. Due to factors such as pre - holiday demand release, international environment complexity, and global economic slowdown, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter may slow down marginally [3][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 10 - Month PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous value and below the seasonal level. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous value, entering the expansion range. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous value, at the critical point [3][9]. 10 - Month Manufacturing Situation Supply and Demand - The production index in October was 49.7%, a 2.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, below the boom - bust line and weaker than the seasonal performance. The new order index was 48.8%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in demand. The new export order index was 45.9%, a 1.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, the second - lowest of the year, due to global economic slowdown and trade uncertainties [4][10]. Price - The main raw material purchase price index was 52.5%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and it has been in the expansion range for 4 consecutive months. The ex - factory price index was 47.5%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The gap between raw material prices and ex - factory prices widened to 5 percentage points, indicating continued pressure on the profits of mid - and downstream processing industries [4][10]. 10 - Month Non - Manufacturing Situation Services - The services PMI was 50.2%, remaining in the expansion range. Driven by holiday effects, industries related to travel and consumption had high business activity indices. The postal industry also saw accelerated growth due to promotional activities. The business activity expectation index was 56.1%, indicating strong confidence among service enterprises [5][11]. Construction - The construction PMI in October was 49.1%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, still below the boom - bust line. However, the business activity expectation index was 56.0%, a 3.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, showing continued improvement in the market development expectations of construction enterprises [6][12].

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [2] - External disturbances have led to a decline in manufacturing PMI, with new export orders and production indices showing significant drops, particularly in textiles, chemicals, and non-metallic mineral products [2][3] - The service sector remains stable, supported by holiday effects and promotional activities, while the construction sector shows signs of recovery due to government support for infrastructure projects [3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has fallen below historical levels for this time of year, with external factors negatively impacting the external demand index [2] - New export orders and production indices have notably decreased, with specific industries like textiles and rubber products falling below critical thresholds [2][3] - The decline in the price index reflects external fluctuations, although some price support is noted from "anti-involution" measures [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's performance is buoyed by holiday spending and promotional events, with high activity in travel-related industries [3] - The construction sector's business activity index has slightly decreased, but government initiatives are expected to enhance support for infrastructure projects [3] - New orders and expectations in the construction sector are showing signs of recovery, indicating potential for improved economic conditions [3] Policy and Economic Outlook - Continuous macroeconomic policy support is essential, with a focus on managing expectations to stimulate domestic demand [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for an economy driven by domestic demand and consumption, aiming to create a positive cycle of expectation improvement leading to economic recovery [3]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an economic slowdown[1] - The composite PMI output index stands at 50.0%, suggesting overall stability in production and business activities[1] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs are at 50.5% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating continued expansion and support for the manufacturing sector[1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The production index for October is 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown in manufacturing production[2] - New orders index recorded at 48.8%, a decline of 0.9 percentage points, indicating reduced demand in the manufacturing sector[3] - New export orders fell to 45.9%, significantly lower than seasonal expectations, influenced by ongoing trade tensions[3] Group 3: Price Index and Economic Resilience - The manufacturing purchase price index is at 52.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 47.5%, also down 0.7 percentage points, indicating a general decline in price levels[7] - Despite the price index decline, new momentum-related industries show positive price trends, with equipment manufacturing prices rising for three consecutive months[7] - The composite PMI output index indicates economic resilience, with a slight decline of 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a convergence towards potential growth[10]

Group 1 - DingTalk, an AI work platform under Alibaba, held the Ding Summit in Hefei, focusing on "Work Methods in the AI Era," gathering over 300 representatives from local innovative enterprises [1] - Hefei has become one of the fastest-growing cities for DingTalk's business, with over 120,000 enterprises in Anhui using the platform, and 50,000 in Hefei alone, accounting for 41% [1] - Nearly half of the more than 10,000 large-scale enterprises in Hefei have adopted DingTalk, particularly in manufacturing, information technology, and energy infrastructure sectors [1] Group 2 - Hefei's enthusiasm for entering the "AI Office Era" is supported by its innovative city gene and robust policy framework, with significant contributions from both global and local enterprises [2] - The local government has implemented policies such as digital transformation subsidies, investment rewards, and talent training support, creating a comprehensive support system for digital transformation [2] - In 2024, Hefei will add 7 national 5G factories and 39 provincial smart factories and digital workshops, being selected as a key city for the 5G application "Sail Action" [2] Group 3 - AI applications are driving an "efficiency revolution" across various sectors in Hefei, with companies like Qige Food and Yuanding Construction leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency [3] - Qige Food improved its data access and collaboration through DingTalk, while Yuanding Construction reduced contract approval time from 300 days to under 3 days, achieving a 218% increase in business efficiency [3] - Large provincial enterprises are also finding transformation opportunities through AI, with Anhui Communications Control Information Company building a digital hub to enhance collaboration and efficiency [3] Group 4 - Hefei is advancing AI office applications into deeper and broader areas, with a transformation that not only fosters high-quality development but also provides a "Hefei model" for digital transformation in cities nationwide [4]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][3] - The PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively, all below the critical point [3] - The production index was 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in manufacturing production [4] - The new orders index was 48.8%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decrease in market demand [5] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.3%, down 1.2 percentage points, showing a continued reduction in inventory levels [5] - The employment index was 48.3%, down 0.2 percentage points, reflecting a slight decline in employment conditions in manufacturing [5] - The supplier delivery time index was at 50.0%, indicating stable delivery times compared to the previous month [5] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In October, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating expansion [7] - The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points, while the service industry index was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points [9] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.0%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating weak market demand [12] - The input prices index was 49.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a narrowing decline in input prices [12] - The sales prices index was 47.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating that sales prices remained below the previous month [12] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, showing slight improvement in employment conditions [12] - The business activity expectation index was 56.1%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating optimism among non-manufacturing enterprises regarding market prospects [13] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.0% in October, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, indicating overall stability in production and business activities [16]

Group 1: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - In October, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, down by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in production activities [1][2] - Both production index and new orders index fell to 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, reflecting a decline in production and market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained a PMI above the critical point, with indices at 50.9% for production and 50.1% for new orders, indicating sustained expansion in this segment [2][3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating slight expansion [4][5] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.2%, showing improvement, particularly in sectors like transportation and hospitality, which benefited from holiday effects [5] - The construction sector's business activity index slightly declined to 49.1%, but the business activity expectation index improved to 56.0%, suggesting a more optimistic outlook [5] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index stood at 50.0%, indicating overall stability in production and business activities across sectors [6]

Manufacturing PMI Overview - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][17] - The PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises was 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1%, respectively, all below the critical point [1][18] - The production index was 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, signaling a slowdown in manufacturing production [2][18] - The new orders index was 48.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, reflecting a drop in market demand [3][18] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.3%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating a continued reduction in inventory levels [4][18] - The employment index was 48.3%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, suggesting a minor decline in employment levels within the manufacturing sector [5][18] Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [6][17] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, showing a slight recovery in service sector activity [6][20] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.0%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating weak market demand [6][20] - The input prices index was 49.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a narrowing decline in input prices for non-manufacturing businesses [6][20] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a minor improvement in employment conditions [7][20] Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, indicating overall stability in production and business activities [8][21] - The manufacturing production index was 49.7%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, contributing to the composite index's position at the critical point [21]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing are at 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, reflecting declines of 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points compared to last month [5] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 49.9%, while medium and small enterprises are at 48.7% and 47.1%, respectively, showing varying degrees of decline in economic sentiment [5] Group 2: Key Industries - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries have PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively, indicating continued expansion and support for the overall manufacturing sector [5] - High-energy-consuming industries have a PMI of 47.3%, down 0.2 percentage points, suggesting a decline in economic activity within this sector [5] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1][6] - The service sector's business activity index is reported at 50.2%, reflecting a slight increase and improved economic conditions in service-related industries [9] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 49.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a slight contraction in construction activities [10] Group 4: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 52.8%, indicating a generally optimistic outlook among manufacturers [6] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector is at 56.1%, suggesting strong confidence in future industry performance [10] - Overall, the non-manufacturing sector shows signs of stability, with positive changes in investment and consumption-related activities [11]

Core Insights - The theme for the 2025 World Cities Day in China is "People's City, Smart Future," highlighting the transformative impact of technology on urban development [1] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reports significant advancements in smart construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with numerous advanced technologies and new materials being applied to promote high-quality urban development [1][3] Smart Construction Progress - By 2025, 24 cities including Beijing, Tianjin, and Chongqing will conclude their pilot programs for smart construction, with positive progress and results achieved in expanding application scenarios and nurturing new industries [3] - Notable innovations include digital design, intelligent production, smart construction, and building robots, which enhance construction efficiency and safety [4] Technological Integration - The integration of technologies such as Building Information Modeling (BIM) and construction robots has become widespread in major projects, improving precision and efficiency while ensuring safety [4] - The collaboration between smart construction and green low-carbon initiatives has led to significant energy-saving renovations, with approximately 800 million square meters of existing buildings upgraded since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [4] 3D Printing and Customization - The application of 3D printing technology in construction is revolutionizing production methods, allowing for personalized designs at lower costs [6][9] - The "Xiong'an Wing" cultural theater, the world's largest 3D-printed building, showcases the potential of 3D printing in creating unique architectural features [7] Smart Construction Equipment - Various intelligent equipment, such as building machines and collaborative robots, are increasingly utilized on construction sites, enhancing efficiency and reducing noise [10][12] - Advanced technologies like 5G-enabled tower cranes allow for remote operation and comprehensive monitoring, improving safety and operational efficiency [17] Urban Development and Global Perception - The ongoing urban renewal in China reflects a shift from focusing solely on infrastructure to prioritizing human-centered design, enhancing livability and community warmth [20][22] - Foreign observers note the rapid construction pace and high quality of urban architecture in China, which blends traditional cultural elements with modern design [22]