Group 1: PMI Data Overview - January manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from December's 50.1%[1] - Non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month's 50.2%[1] Group 2: Factors Influencing PMI Changes - The significant drop in January PMI is attributed to the early return of workers for the Spring Festival and weak domestic demand[2] - The national migration scale index increased from 4% to approximately 8.6% year-on-year, indicating an earlier return home[2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive sectors, such as consumer goods and high-energy industries, saw larger PMI declines of 2.1 and 1 percentage points, respectively, to 48.3% and 47.9%[3] - The construction sector's PMI dropped 4 percentage points to 48.8%, while service sector PMI remained relatively stable at 49.5%, down only 0.2 percentage points[3] Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - Despite short-term weaknesses in manufacturing and construction due to the Spring Festival, the overall economic recovery trend is expected to continue in the coming months[4] - Service sector expectations may improve due to increased travel and holiday consumption, supported by recent policy measures[4]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in January PMI is primarily attributed to the early return of workers for the 2026 Spring Festival and weak domestic demand, with manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.3% from 50.1% and non-manufacturing PMI falling to 49.4% from 50.2% [2][7][61] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell below the neutral line, decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, influenced by statistical factors and the early return of workers [2][8][61] - The manufacturing production index declined by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, while the new orders index decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2% [5][41][64] - The purchasing index for manufacturing dropped significantly by 2.4 percentage points to 48.7%, indicating a notable contraction in supply [3][15][62] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive sectors such as consumer goods and high-energy industries experienced a more pronounced decline in PMI, with consumer goods PMI falling by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3% and high-energy PMI down by 1 percentage point to 47.9% [3][22][62] - In contrast, capital-intensive sectors like high-tech and equipment manufacturing saw smaller declines, with PMIs of 52% and 50.1%, respectively [3][22][62] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing sector showed asymmetric effects from the early return of workers, with the construction PMI dropping to 48.8%, a decline of 4 percentage points, while the service sector PMI only slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5% [4][25][62] - The construction sector's decline is more significant than the average historical drop of 1.4 percentage points for January since 2017 [4][25][62] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The early Spring Festival may disrupt PMI readings for January and February, but the overall economic recovery trend is expected to continue, supported by travel and consumption during the holiday [4][34][63] - Recent policies aimed at boosting service consumption are anticipated to support the service sector's recovery, with a focus on changes in consumer demand [4][34][63]

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In January, the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI were 49.3% and 49.4%, respectively, both down 0.8 percentage points month-on-month[2] - The manufacturing PMI fell below the expansion threshold, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[5] - The non-manufacturing PMI also declined, primarily due to significant downturns in the construction sector[7] Group 2: Economic Implications - The January PMI data suggests that the economic recovery process remains unstable, with many provinces lowering their growth targets for 2026[4] - The manufacturing sector experienced a notable drop in production and demand, with new orders decreasing by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2[5] - The price index for purchasing rose by 3.0 percentage points to 56.1, indicating rising costs despite declining production volumes[6] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the manufacturing sector, the contribution to PMI from production fell by 0.275 percentage points, while new orders contributed a decline of 0.48 percentage points[5] - The construction industry saw a significant drop of 4.0 percentage points in PMI to 48.8, below the average level of the past three years[8] - The service sector's PMI decreased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5, with mixed performance across sub-sectors[7]

2026.01.31 本文字数：2666，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 李秀中 在广东和新疆统计局30日发布了去年经济数据之后，全国31个省份去年GDP结果全部揭晓。在总量排名 上，31个省份基本上保持稳定，只有重庆超越辽宁发生变动；在经济增速上，西藏继续领跑全国。 西藏领跑 2025年，西藏全区固定资产投资同比增长17.2%。2023年，全区固定资产投资比上年增长35.1%（不含 川藏铁路雅安至林芝段西藏境内投资）。2024年，西藏固定资产投资同比增长19.6%，其中，计划总投 资5000万元及以上项目投资增长39.7%。 2025年，西藏第二产业增加值1156.24亿元，同比增长9.6%。西藏统计局称，依托资源禀赋，聚焦资源 加工业、清洁能源开发等特色产业，新型工业化步伐不断加快，工业生产延续平稳向好态势。规模以上 工业增加值同比增长12.4%。全区进一步加大建筑业经济运行调度，有力推动建筑业在地统计改革， 2025年全区建筑业增加值同比增长10.3%。 1月29日，西藏统计局发布，2025年，全区实现生产总值3031.89亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长 7.0%，增速连续四个季度位居全国前列。 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 31 日 [Table_Title] PMI 意外回落，什么信号 1 月 31 日， 统计局发布 1 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.3%，前值 50.1%。非制造业 PMI 49.4%，前值 50.2%。重点关注以下四个方面： 第一，制造业 PMI 回落，生产和订单是主要拖累。1 月制造业 PMI 回落 0.8 个百分点至 49.3%，与去年 11 月的 49.2%接近，表现显著弱于市场预期（彭博预期 50.1%）。组成制造业 PMI的五个分项中，主要是生产、新 订单明显回落，生产回落 1.1 个百分点至 50.6%，新订单回落 1.6 个百分点至 49.2%，两者分别拖累 PMI 0.3、 0.5 个百分点。 制造业回落幅度超出季节性。PMI 已通过季调方式部分剔除季节性规律，不过春节早晚对 12 月、1 月到 3 月 PMI 仍会有一定程度影响，难以完全剔除。我们参考春节类似日期的年份，2015（2 月 19 日）、2018（2 月 16 日）、2021（2 月 12 日），制造业生产分项 1 月相对前一年 12 月回落 0 ...

分析报告·行业 中国 PMI 行业分析报告 202601： 建筑 4 年新低，电信价格新高 2026 年 1 月 31 日 分析报告 1 月份中国非制造业经营活动状况较上月回 落 0.8 个百分点，同比值-0.8。新订单较上月回落 1.2 个百分点，同比值-0.3；收费价格较上月回升 0.8 个百分点，同比值 0.2；中间投入价格较上月 回落 0.2 个百分点，同比值-0.4。生产性服务业较 上月回落 1.4，消费性服务业较上月回升 0.4。 大类行业：建筑业较上月回落 4 个百分点， 同比值-0.5,近年当月均值差-4.4；新订单回落 7.3 至 40.1；收费价格回升 0.8 至 48.2。 服务业较上月回落 0.2 至 49.5，同比值-0.8， 近年当月均值差-2；新订单回落 0.2 至 47.1；收 费价格回升 0.8 至 48.9。 本月，行业中类：经状指标最高的是信息与 商务服务中类，居民服务中类最低。回升最多的是 居民服务中类，房建中类回落最多。 中采咨询研究部 电话：010-68599115 邮箱：info@pmiii.org.cn 分析报告·行业 图 1：非制造业全国经营活动状况年度对比图 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in January recorded a decline to 49.3%, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month and below the median level of the past five years [4][3] - Key sub-indices such as new orders, production, raw material inventory, and employment all showed a decrease, indicating a cooling in both supply and demand [4][2] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, while the production index decreased to 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points [6][4] Group 2 - The price index has risen significantly due to recent increases in commodity prices, with the raw material purchase price index at 56.1%, down 3.0 percentage points, and the factory price index at 50.6%, up 1.7 percentage points [8][3] - The construction industry has seen a notable decline, with the new orders index dropping significantly, leading to a business activity index of 48.8%, the lowest since April 2020 [9][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, with the service sector also experiencing a slight decline, indicating overall weak economic conditions [9][12]

月度分析报告·综述 中国 PMI 非制造业全国综述 202601： 建筑淡季延续，服务回落 2026 年 1 月 31 日 月度分析报告 1 月份中国非制造业经营活动状况回落 0.8 个百分点至 49.4%,近年当月均 值差-2.4，非制造业经营活动结束扩张的势头。新订单回落 1.2 至 46.1%，中间 投入价格回落，收费价格有所回升，需求恢复力度仍然较弱。 表 1：PMI 非制造业 1 月数据（50.0 表示与上月相比持平） | 指标 | 本月 | 环比值 | 上月环比值 | 同比值 | 上月同比值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 经营活动状况 | 49.4 | -0.8 | 0.7 | -0.8 | -2 | | 新订单（业务需 | 46.1 | -1.2 | 1.6 | -0.3 | -1.4 | | 求） | | | | | | | 收费价格 | 48.8 | 0.8 | -1.1 | 0.2 | -0.8 | | 中间投入价格 | 50 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.3 | | 国（境）外新订 | 46.9 | -0.6 | ...

国家统计局1月31日发布数据显示，1月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.3%、49.4%和49.8%，比 上月下降0.8个、0.8个和0.9个百分点，经济景气水平有所回落。 从行业看，货币金融服务、资本市场服务、保险等行业商务活动指数均高于65.0%，市场活跃度较高。 出厂价格指数近20个月来首次升至临界点以上 "1月份，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，加之市场有效需求仍显不足，制造业PMI为49.3%，景气水平较上月下降。"国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计 师霍丽慧表示。 高技术制造业持续领跑。1月份，高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0%及以上较高水平，相关行业发展态势持续向好。装备制造业PMI为 50.1%，保持在扩张区间。消费品行业和高耗能行业PMI分别为48.3%和47.9%，景气水平有所回落。 企业预期保持乐观。1月份，生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。从行业看，农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制茶等行业生产经营活动预 期指数连续两个月位于56.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对近期行业发展信心较强。 "1月份，受季节性因 ...

1月31日，国家统计局公布数据显示，1月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个 百分点。非制造业商务活动指数为49.4%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。 从市场预期看，服务业业务活动预期指数为57.1%，比上月上升0.7个百分点，表明服务业企业对近期市 场发展信心有所增强。何辉指出，服务业业务活动预期指数连续2个月上升，升至57%以上，意味着企 业普遍看好春节消费对服务业的带动作用。 制造业采购经理指数有所下降，生产继续保持扩张 1月份，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季。从13个分项指数来看，同上月相比，产成品库存指数、进口指 数、购进价格指数和出厂价格指数有所上升，指数升幅在0.3至3个百分点之间；生产指数、新订单指 数、新出口订单指数、积压订单指数、采购量指数、原材料库存指数、从业人员指数、供应商配送时间 指数和生产经营活动预期指数有所下降，指数降幅在0.1至2.9个百分点之间。 受季节性因素和外部因素影响，1月份制造业运行有所波动，但是企业预期仍保持乐观。1月份生产经营 活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。从行业看，农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制茶等行业生产 经营活动预期指数连续两 ...