Group 1 - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a closing price of $3686.23 per ounce on September 16, following a high of $3703.09 and a low of $3674.73 [1] - The U.S. retail sales for August recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of 0.2% and the previous value of 0.5%, indicating a steady consumer spending trend despite economic uncertainties [2] - High-income households have shown resilience in spending, contributing disproportionately to overall consumption, supported by a bull market and rising home prices [2] Group 2 - The U.S. housing market outlook is optimistic due to declining mortgage rates and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, despite ongoing construction cost pressures [3] - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped to 6.35%, the lowest since mid-October of the previous year, which is expected to boost housing demand [3] - Industrial production in the U.S. showed minimal growth in August, with manufacturing increasing by only 0.2%, indicating challenges in the manufacturing sector due to trade policy uncertainties [3] Group 3 - International gold maintained a volatile trading pattern, with short-term price movements indicating a potential upward trend, as the market stabilized above $3682 [4] - The short-term indicators for gold prices suggest a bullish sentiment, with significant support levels identified for potential price rebounds [4] - The overall daily moving averages for gold prices are showing a structured upward divergence, reinforcing the bullish trend [4]

Economic Outlook - The economic sentiment in the Eurozone improved in September, with the economic sentiment index rising by 1.0 points to 26.1, exceeding market expectations of 20.3 [1] - The current economic situation index also improved by 2.4 points to -28.8, indicating a more favorable outlook [1] - Approximately 51.7% of surveyed analysts expect stable economic activity, while 37.2% anticipate improvement, and 11.1% foresee deterioration [1] Labor Costs - Eurozone hourly labor costs increased by 3.6% year-on-year in Q2, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 3.7% but higher than the revised 3.4% in Q1 [1] - Wage growth was recorded at 3.7% in Q2, up from 3.5% in Q1, while non-wage costs grew by 3.4%, compared to the previous 3.2% [1] - Labor costs in the business economy sector rose by 4.0%, with construction leading at 4.7%, followed by services at 4.3%, and industry at 3.3% [1] Industrial Production - Eurozone industrial production increased by 0.3% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.6% and aligning with market expectations [2] - Year-on-year, industrial production grew by 1.8%, significantly faster than the 0.7% growth in June [2] - Notable increases were seen in capital goods production, which rebounded by 1.3%, durable consumer goods by 1.1%, and non-durable consumer goods by 1.5% [2] Economic Dynamics - The data indicates a recovery in economic momentum within the Eurozone, although persistently high labor costs may support inflation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The necessity for policy reinforcement has increased due to declining economic indicators in August, particularly in demand and supply metrics, suggesting a potential need for counter-cyclical policy measures [2][4][6]. Group 1: Policy Trigger Conditions - Historical data indicates that policy reinforcement has been triggered four times since 2007 when cyclical demand faced downward pressure, with August's cyclical demand growth dropping to 2.2%, significantly below the nominal GDP growth of Q2 [4][11]. - The composite PMI output index has also shown five instances of policy reinforcement when it reached local lows, with the average for July and August at 50.3%. A further decline in September could indicate a similar need for policy action [4][11]. Group 2: Direction of Policy Reinforcement - Given the current low price levels, policy reinforcement should focus on stimulating terminal demand rather than increasing future industrial supply. Potential directions include promoting service consumption and pre-positioning major projects from the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][13]. - The construction sector's order growth has historically been better in the first three years of a five-year plan, suggesting that major projects from the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan could be advanced [5][17]. - Service consumption, particularly in sectors like dining, education, and healthcare, requires enhancement, as evidenced by declining growth rates in these areas [5][21]. Group 3: August Economic Data Overview - In August, supply-side growth slowed, with industrial output growth at 5.2% and service sector production index at 5.6%. The GDP growth for Q3 is projected around 4.8% [6][27]. - On the demand side, retail sales growth was 3.4%, down from 3.7%, while exports fell to 4.4% from 7.2%. Real estate sales area decreased by 10.6%, and fixed asset investment saw a decline of 7.1% [6][27][28]. - Price metrics showed a slight recovery in housing prices, with second-hand home prices down 5.5% year-on-year, and PPI at -2.9% while CPI was -0.4% [27][28]. Group 4: Employment and Consumption - The urban survey unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August, reflecting seasonal trends, while the consumption sector saw a slight recovery in dining growth to 2.1% after lower rates in previous months [30][31]. - Retail sales growth for durable goods, particularly in home appliances, decreased significantly, indicating a mixed recovery in consumer spending [31]. Group 5: Real Estate Sector Analysis - The real estate sector showed a slight decline in the prosperity index, with sales area down 10.6% year-on-year and investment growth at -19.9% [33][34]. - Funding sources for real estate also saw a decline, with domestic loans showing a slight increase, but personal mortgage loans dropped significantly [34]. Group 6: Industrial Growth Insights - Industrial output growth was recorded at 5.2%, with high-tech manufacturing showing strong performance, particularly in sectors like aircraft manufacturing and biopharmaceuticals [39][40]. - The overall manufacturing sector's growth was 5.7%, with consumer goods manufacturing expected to remain weak [40][45].

中经记者 陈雪波 北京报道 与此同时，安心筑与工商银行共同构建建筑产业金融的新基础设施与新规则，将"安心筑工程管理能 力"与"工商银行数字金融能力"深度融合，共同打造了不可篡改、全链追溯的"区块链+数字人民币"信任 基石。 在建筑领域，每年约有6万亿元工人工资和20万亿元工程款流转，但复杂的审批流程、漫长的打款周期 和割裂的信息系统，使得庞大资金的流动举步维艰，还引发了一系列履约争议和权益纠纷问题。数字人 民币作为我国数字经济时代的金融新基建，在千行百业的应用场景不断拓展创新，也为解决建筑业顽疾 带来了新的"必解之钥"。 "在建筑领域探索数字人民币创新，可以让行业多方主体受益。"安心筑团队产品负责人介绍，安心筑通 过三大模式创新，实现了政府、建筑企业、金融机构、工人等多方的全面价值创新，让各方安心。 一智科技是安心筑的开发公司，该公司董事长刘俊杰坦言："安心筑正在用科技兑现'让建造更简单，让 工人更安心'的承诺，也在见证一个更透明、更高效、更公平、更和谐的建筑业全新生态。" （编辑：卢志坤 审核：童海华 校对：颜京宁） 9月14日，2025年中国国际服务贸易交易会（以下简称"服贸会"）在北京闭幕，本届服贸会会 ...

Economic Growth - Kyrgyzstan's GDP for January to August is estimated at 1.0421 trillion som (approximately 11.9 billion USD), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11% [1] - The service sector accounts for 50.8% of the economy, while goods production industries represent 33.4%, and product taxes make up 15.8% [1] Sector Performance - Industrial output increased by 11.5% year-on-year, with mining growing by 15.5% and manufacturing by 10.8% [1] - The construction sector showed significant growth with a 34.8% increase in output [1] - Wholesale and retail trade grew by 11.6%, while the hotel and restaurant services sector saw a 25.4% increase [1] - Agricultural, forestry, and fishing sectors grew by 2.4%, and freight volume increased by 9.8% [1] - The telecommunications services sector experienced a growth of 6.6% compared to the same period last year [1] Consumer Prices and Trade - The consumer price index in Kyrgyzstan rose by 5.1% from December of the previous year [1] - The foreign trade volume from January to July was 8.6644 billion USD, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.4% [1] - Exports amounted to 1.4931 billion USD, down 13.3% year-on-year, while imports totaled 7.1713 billion USD, a decrease of 4.8% [1]

Core Insights - Saudi Arabia's economy is showing strong performance, with a 3.9% year-on-year GDP growth in Q2 2025, reflecting the effectiveness of its economic diversification strategy [1][6] - The non-oil sector is the primary driver of this growth, contributing 2.6 percentage points to the overall GDP increase, indicating a significant shift in the economic structure [6][12] Non-Oil Sector Performance - The non-oil activities grew by 4.6% year-on-year in Q2 2025, outpacing the overall economic growth rate [6][12] - The electricity, gas, and water supply sector saw a remarkable growth of 10.3%, the highest among all sectors, driven by industrialization and rising public demand [7] - The financial services sector also performed well, with a 7.0% increase, attributed to the deepening of financial markets and innovation [9] - Wholesale, retail, and hospitality sectors experienced a 6.6% growth, supported by increased disposable income and tourism development [9] - Manufacturing, excluding refining, grew by 4.5%, indicating a steady industrialization process [9] - The construction sector grew by 4.2%, fueled by infrastructure projects and rising housing demand [9] Trade and Economic Structure - Imports surged by 9.0%, reflecting strong domestic demand and active economic activities, while exports grew by 3.6%, indicating an improving export structure [12] - The overall economic performance in Q2 2025 demonstrates significant progress in economic diversification, with the non-oil sector becoming the main engine of growth [12][14] Future Outlook - The Saudi government is expected to continue implementing reforms under the "Vision 2030" initiative, focusing on improving the business environment and promoting private sector development [12][15] - Investments in infrastructure, human resources, and technological innovation are anticipated to lay a solid foundation for long-term economic growth [12][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economy shows signs of improved quality and prominent structural highlights, but internal momentum needs consolidation and demand requires further boosting. The full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half, with the 5% annual target achievable [4]. - In the equity market, the foundation for a slow - bull market remains. The index is expected to oscillate strongly, and investors are advised to actively participate and focus on high - growth sectors. In the bond market, the upward movement is limited, and there is insufficient momentum for a trending long - position. In the commodity market, the differentiation intensifies, with the expected performance being precious metals > industrial metals > energy products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 8 - month Economic Overview - **Positive aspects**: The service industry is highly prosperous, with the August service business activity index reaching 50.5%. New and old kinetic energy is accelerating transformation, and the "Two New" policies have strong supporting effects. The "Anti - involution" policy shows results, with the PPI ending its 8 - month decline. The capital activation degree increases, and the profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrows [4][5]. - **Challenges**: Economic data awaits trend improvement, with the manufacturing PMI below the boom - bust line for 5 consecutive months. Internal growth momentum needs consolidation, overseas demand is uncertain, real estate drags on the economy, and the profit structure of industrial enterprises above designated size may further differentiate [4][6]. 3.2 8 - month Economic Sub - data Interpretation - **Manufacturing PMI**: It remains in a low - level oscillation, with the production index driving the slight rebound. High - tech and equipment manufacturing PMIs show an upward trend [7]. - **Fixed - asset investment**: The growth rate continues to decline, mainly due to real estate drag. However, high - tech investment remains prosperous [9]. - **Consumption**: The growth rate slightly drops, but the "National Subsidy" and service - consumption policies are expected to support future consumption [10]. - **Exports**: The short - term growth slows down, and the future trend is uncertain due to factors such as high - base effects, policy changes, and overseas economic conditions [11][13]. - **Real estate**: Sales continue to be weak, with both sales area and investment decline expanding. Second - hand housing prices have not stopped falling [14]. - **Production**: It maintains a high level of prosperity, with the added value of industries above designated size growing steadily. Manufacturing is the core support [15]. - **Prices**: The "Anti - involution" policy affects PPI. CPI is weak, mainly dragged down by food prices. PPI ends its decline, but the recovery of PPI depends on demand - side policies [18][19]. - **Liquidity**: The total social financing slightly exceeds expectations, but the structure needs improvement, especially the slow recovery of medium - and long - term credit demand [22]. - **Profit**: The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrows, and future profit growth depends on multiple factors [23]. 3.3 Future Economic Outlook - **Overseas**: The US economy shows signs of weakness, which may affect China's exports. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts will impact global liquidity [24]. - **Domestic policy**: A certain policy space will be reserved, and policies focus on long - term structural issues [25]. - **Economy**: The full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Investment may continue to explore the bottom, consumption has certain support, and exports remain uncertain [25]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - **Equity market**: The foundation for a slow - bull market exists. Investors are advised to focus on high - growth sectors such as self - controllability, energy storage and new energy, service consumption, and sectors benefiting from Fed rate cuts [27]. - **Bond market**: The upward movement is limited, and it is recommended to allocate when the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.8% [30]. - **Commodity market**: The differentiation intensifies, and it is recommended to focus on precious metals [31].

Economic Performance - In August, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decline of 0.5 percentage points from July[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from July[1] - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, down 1.1 percentage points from January to July[1] - The unemployment rate in urban areas rose to 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] GDP and Economic Drivers - The monthly GDP year-on-year growth rate for August is approximately 3.8%, a further decline of 0.5 percentage points from July, significantly below the annual growth target[2][3] - The construction sector contributed a drag of about 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth, while industrial and service sectors each contributed a drag of 0.1 percentage points[2][3] - The decline in economic growth is characterized by a simultaneous slowdown in consumption, investment, and exports, indicating a broad-based cooling of demand[3] Policy Outlook - The current economic situation presents a critical policy window, necessitating more aggressive macroeconomic responses to prevent further economic decline[4][15] - Key measures include accelerating the expenditure of accumulated fiscal deposits, increasing the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds, and enhancing support for infrastructure projects through policy financial tools[4][15] Risks and Challenges - The rising unemployment rate may suppress consumer income expectations and confidence, potentially undermining the effectiveness of consumption stimulus policies[3][15] - There is a risk of policy measures being ineffective if consumers choose to save rather than spend any subsidies received, leading to a "policy hollowing out" effect[3][15]

Economic Overview - The UK's GDP growth for July was flat at 0.0% month-on-month, significantly slowing from June's 0.4% increase, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.4%, slightly below the market expectation of 1.5% [1][4] - The economic structure shows a pattern of "moderate support from services, continuous expansion in construction, significant drag from industry, and pressure on external demand" [4] Sector Performance - The services sector experienced a slight growth of 0.1%, supported mainly by transportation and storage (1.4% growth) and health and social work (0.4% growth), while the information and communication sector declined by 0.7% [2] - The construction sector demonstrated resilience with a month-on-month output increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year growth rate accelerating to 2.4%, surpassing the market expectation of 1.9% [2] - Industrial production faced significant downward pressure, with a month-on-month decline of 0.9%, reversing the previous month's 0.7% increase, and manufacturing output fell by 1.3%, marking the steepest contraction since July of the previous year [2] Trade Dynamics - The trade deficit widened to £5.26 billion in July, the largest since February, with exports rising by 2.3% to £76.45 billion and imports increasing by 2.4% to £81.71 billion, reaching a historical high [3] - Notably, goods exports grew by 6.6%, with a 4.6% increase in exports to the EU, driven by increased aircraft exports to Germany, and an 8.5% rise in exports to non-EU countries [3] - Service exports decreased by 0.4% to £45.83 billion, hitting a three-month low, while goods imports reached a 13-month high at £50.89 billion, primarily due to increased imports of ships from South Korea and aircraft and cars from Germany [3]

Group 1 - The business creation index in Greece reached 134.7 in Q2 2025, the highest among EU member states [1] - Over 50,000 new companies were registered in Greece since the beginning of the year, while approximately 15,200 companies closed [1] - The majority of new registrations were in the trade sector, accounting for 26.3%, followed by accommodation and services at over 16.5% [1] Group 2 - The construction and professional, scientific activities sectors each accounted for 8.5% of new registrations [1] - The manufacturing sector, considered a pillar of productive industries, lagged behind with only 6.3% of new registrations [1] - In 2024, the number of new manufacturing companies decreased by 18.4%, and the number of construction companies fell by 25.4% [1]