【冠通期货研究报告】 降息预期升温，铜价震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 12 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜低开高走，日内震荡偏强。供给方面，长单谈判临近，长单价格及结算方 式仍有较大不确定性，11 月预计 5 家冶炼厂检修，涉及粗炼产能 150 万吨，预计检修影 响量为 4.80 万吨。铜精矿冶炼厂的开工率为 85.4%环比下降 3.1%；使用废铜或者阳极铜 为主的冶炼厂的开工率为 63.3%环比增加 1.0%。受 770 号文的影响，阳极铜采购依然受 到影响，但个别地区政策明晰后，开工逐渐回暖，预计后续废铜供应将有所增加，补充 铜矿端偏紧的缺口。需求方面，旺季表现不及往年，目前基本结束，短暂的回调拿货并 未扭转下游需求的弱势状态，下游铜材开工环比回落，Mysteel 样本调研显示 10 月国内 精铜杆产量为 75.60 万吨，环比降 10.99%。上期所库存 10 月底以来连续累库，目前库 存累库至同比中高位，近日铜价高企下，库存接连增加，综合来看，美国政府即将结束 停摆消息及中美两国友好贸易往来带动市场风险偏好提升，且目前美国经济数据缺失， 市场对 12 月降息的分歧较大，美指近日走弱，支撑铜价 ...

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing and updated its post-hearing prospectus on November 9, focusing on the upstream aluminum industry chain, specifically alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [3][5]. Company Overview - Innovation Industry's business is primarily divided into the production and sales of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with electrolytic aluminum sales contributing 76.6% of total revenue for the five months ending May 31, 2025 [3][8][12]. - The company strategically established its operations in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, since 2012, positioning itself as the fourth largest electrolytic aluminum production base in North China by 2024 [12][14]. Financial Performance - For the five months ending May 31, 2025, Innovation Industry reported revenue of approximately 7.214 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, while shareholder profit was approximately 756 million RMB, a decrease of 14.1% [3][15]. - The company's revenue and profit figures for previous years indicate a fluctuating performance, with notable growth in revenue but a decline in profit for the latest reporting period [15]. Production Capacity - As of May 31, 2025, the annual designed production capacity for electrolytic aluminum in Hohhot is 788.1 thousand tons, and for alumina in Binzhou, Shandong, it is 1.2 million tons [13][14]. - The actual production figures for the same period were 310.7 thousand tons of electrolytic aluminum and 664.5 thousand tons of alumina, with self-sufficiency rates for alumina and electricity at 70% and 87%, respectively [14]. Future Plans - The company plans to use the net proceeds from its fundraising for expanding overseas capacity, including building electrolytic aluminum smelting plants and purchasing production equipment, as well as for green energy projects and general corporate purposes [7][17]. - Innovation Industry aims to invest in a comprehensive electrolytic aluminum project in Saudi Arabia with an expected annual capacity of 500 thousand tons [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, and non - ferrous metals. It analyzes the market conditions, important news, trading logic, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market situation: The stock market showed high - low switching and index fluctuations. The main stock index futures contracts fell, with different changes in trading volume and positions. The market is expected to remain volatile until a consensus is formed [17][19][20]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, high - low trading in a high - level range; for arbitrage, IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, bull spread at low prices [21]. Treasury Futures - Market situation: Treasury futures closed mostly flat. The spot bond yields fluctuated slightly, and the market lacked clear incremental positive drivers, limiting the upward space of futures bonds [22][23]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, hold short 30Y - 7Y term spread positions and consider long T - contract inter - delivery spread at an appropriate time [23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Market situation: The domestic supply pressure has improved, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The CBOT soybean index rose slightly, while the CBOT index fell [25]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [26]. Sugar - Market situation: International sugar prices fluctuated, and domestic sugar prices were slightly stronger. Global sugar production in major producing areas is increasing, while domestic sugar production is expected to increase, but import policies and high costs support the price [27][28][29]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, conduct range trading; for arbitrage, short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar; for options, wait and see [30]. Oilseeds and Oils - Market situation: In October, Malaysian palm oil inventories increased as expected, and the oil market is in a bottom - grinding phase. Different oils have different supply and demand situations [31][32]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [33]. Corn/Corn Starch - Market situation: The spot price rebounded, and the futures market was strongly volatile. The US corn market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, while the domestic corn spot price is short - term strong [34][35]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, short - long on dips for the December US corn; wait and see for the January domestic corn, and consider short - selling at high prices with a stop - loss; wait for dips for the May and July contracts; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [36]. Live Hogs - Market situation: The pressure of hog slaughter increased, and the price declined slightly. The overall supply pressure remains due to high inventory [37][38]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, lightly short; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [38]. Peanuts - Market situation: Peanut spot prices are strong, and the short - term market is strongly volatile. The price of imported peanuts is stable, and the oil mill has not made large - scale purchases [39][40]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, the January contract is expected to be in a bottom - range shock, and lightly short - long the May contract with a stop - loss; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [40]. Eggs - Market situation: Egg demand has improved, and the price has slightly rebounded. The inventory of laying hens is still high, and the short - term price increase space is limited [42][43][44]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, close previous short positions and wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [44]. Apples - Market situation: New apples are being stored, and the price is mainly stable. The apple production has decreased this year, and the cold - storage inventory is expected to be low [45][46][47]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, consider going long on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [47]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market situation: Cotton picking is nearing completion, and the price is mainly volatile. The new cotton supply is increasing, but the production increase may be lower than expected, and the demand is in the off - season [49][50][51]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is slightly stronger in the short - term; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [51]. Black Metals Steel - Market situation: Raw material costs are under pressure, and steel prices are in a range - bound shock. The supply and demand structure suppresses steel prices, but cost support exists [54]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, maintain range - bound trading; for arbitrage, hold long roll - screw spread positions; for options, wait and see [55]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market situation: Market sentiment has cooled, and the market is in an adjustment phase. After a sharp decline, the market is expected to oscillate and sort out in the near term [59]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, wait and see in the short - term and consider going long on dips in the medium - term; for arbitrage, short the 1/5 coking - coal spread; for options, wait and see [60]. Iron Ore - Market situation: Adopt a bearish mindset. The supply is high in the fourth quarter, while the domestic demand is weak [63]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, mainly short; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [63]. Ferroalloys - Market situation: Costs provide some support, and previous short positions can be reduced. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have weakened marginally, but costs are supportive [65]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, reduce previous short positions on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell an out - of - the - money straddle option combination [67]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Market situation: Market liquidity expectations boost precious metals, which are strongly volatile. The US government's situation and economic data affect market sentiment [69][70]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, use a collar - call option strategy [70][71]. Copper - Market situation: Short - term volatility. The supply and demand situation and macro - economic data affect the copper market [72]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, wait and see, and consider long - term long positions; for arbitrage, the ratio may rebound; for options, wait and see [74]. Alumina - Market situation: The supply and demand are still significantly surplus. Spot prices have rebounded, but the pressure of basis - driven selling exists [78]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, short - term narrow - range rebound, but beware of basis - driven selling pressure; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [80][81]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market situation: Overseas supply concerns persist, and aluminum prices are strongly volatile. Macro - economic factors and supply - demand fundamentals affect the market [82][83]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, maintain a bullish view after dips; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [85]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market situation: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations increase, and the alloy price is strongly volatile with aluminum prices. Cost support and demand - side factors co - exist [86]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, the alloy price is strongly volatile with aluminum prices; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [86]. Zinc - Market situation: Pay attention to the export volume. The supply may improve due to potential smelter production cuts and export opportunities, but the upward space is limited [89]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, hold long SHFE and short LME arbitrage positions; for options, wait and see [89]. Lead - Market situation: Range - bound trading. The supply may improve, while the demand may weaken [91]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, short - term range - bound trading, and the price may decline with inventory accumulation; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell an out - of - the - money call option [91]. Nickel - Market situation: The cost is loosening, and nickel prices are weakly volatile. The supply is relatively abundant, and the price is under pressure [93]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, short on rebounds; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell an out - of - the - money call option [94][95]. Stainless Steel - Market situation: Both supply and demand are weak, and raw materials are under pressure. The market is in a low - season, and prices are expected to continue to decline [96]. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, short on rebounds; for arbitrage, wait and see [96]. Industrial Silicon - Market situation: No detailed market situation description provided. - Trading strategy: Close long positions and realize profits in time [97].

| 铅锌日评20251112：沪铅高位整理；沪锌或有回调 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/12 指标 单位 今值 | | | | | 变动 近期趋势 | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 17,300.00 | | | | | 0.00% | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,440.00 | 沪铅期现价格 | | | | -0.37% | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -140.00 | | | | | 65.00 | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 25.00 | | | | | 25.00 | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -12.30 | | | | | -1.56 | | 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -80.40 | | | | | -0.20 | | -45.00 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 | 价差 | | | | 55.00 | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -10.00 铅 | | | | | -10.00 | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -10.00 | | | | | -25.00 | ...

11月11日（周二），印尼贸易部周二公布的数据显示，印尼10月出口了2,643.05吨精炼锡，较去年同期 减少53.89%。 ...

| 品名 | 区间 | 均价 | 涨跌 | 日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铝 | 21610-21650 | 21630 | +140 | 11-11 | | 铜 | 86940-86960 | 86950 | +320 | 11-11 | | 铝 | 17250-17350 | 17300 | 0 | 11-11 | | 0#锌 | 22150-23150 | 22650 | +70 | 11-11 | | 1#锌 | 22500-22600 | 22550 | +70 | 11-11 | | 锡 | 286800-288800 287800 +2100 | | | 11-11 | | 誤 | 119900-122900 121400 | | 0 | 11-11 | 来源：世铝网 11日有色宝长江A00铝21610～21650均价21630涨140,前三日均价21457,前五日均价21424 ...

天眼查工商信息显示，近日，北方铜业（000737）发生工商变更，注册资本由约17.72亿人民币增至约 19.05亿人民币，增幅约7.46%，同时部分高管发生变更。 北方铜业股份有限公司成立于1996年4月，法定代表人为魏迎辉，经营范围含非煤矿山矿产资源开采、 金属矿石销售、常用有色金属冶炼等。股东信息显示，该公司由中条山有色金属集团有限公司、山西焦 煤运城盐化集团有限责任公司、晋创投资有限公司等共同持股。 天眼查工商信息显示，近日，北方铜业（000737）发生工商变更，注册资本由约17.72亿人民币增至约 19.05亿人民币，增幅约7.46%，同时部分高管发生变更。 ...

Group 1 - The resignation of Chairman Liu Langming and Director Cao Xiaoyang is due to work adjustments, and they do not hold shares in the company [2][3] - The company will proceed with the election of new directors and a new chairman following the resignation [2][3] - The board expresses gratitude for the contributions made by the resigning directors during their tenure [3] Group 2 - Peng Shuguang has been nominated as a candidate for the board of directors, pending approval at the upcoming shareholders' meeting [3] - The election of a worker director, Tan Yizhong, was approved by the employee representative assembly, and he meets the qualifications required by law [4] Group 3 - The eighth board of directors held its fourteenth meeting on November 10, 2025, to discuss the election of new directors [14] - The meeting was attended by all seven directors, and the election proposal was unanimously approved [14] Group 4 - The company plans to adjust the expected amount of daily related transactions for 2025, increasing procurement by 1 billion yuan and sales by 150 million yuan [30] - The adjustments are based on the company's operational needs and are expected to enhance market competitiveness without harming shareholder interests [28][46]

金融期货早评 宏观：美国政府结束关门在望 【市场资讯】1）国办发文提出 13 项措施进一步促进民间投资，扩大准入、打通堵点、强 化保障。2）中国两部门：优化论证新能源配置及送出消纳方案，促进"沙戈荒"新能源基地 实现规模化就地消纳。3）美国政府关门或再持续数天，参院关键程序性投票通过临时拨款 法案后还要走完程序，众院何时表决未定。4）媒体称美国接近将 39%瑞士关税砍到 15%， 特朗普称设法略降瑞士关税，接近达成协议降低印度关税。5）特朗普"钦点"的美联储理事 米兰：政府关门不会影响我对美国经济的看法，12 月应降息 50 基点。6）私营行业数据： 美国 10 月消费品价格涨幅三个月来首次放缓。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，物价指数边际回升，其背后更多受低基数效应、反内卷等因素驱 动。出口同比增速受基数扰动回落显著，在出口对经济的拉动作用边际放缓的背景下，提 振内需或将成为后续政策的重要发力方向。上周海外市场核心看点集中于流动性阶段性紧 张、美国政府超长停摆及美元指数反弹三大方面。目前美国政府停摆有望终结：参院关键 程序性投票通过临时拨款法案后还要走完程序，众院何时表决未定。若相关程序顺利推进， 美国政府最早或于 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The passage of the temporary appropriation bill by the US Senate has boosted investors' optimism in the non - ferrous metals market. The macro - environment has repeated expectations but overall remains stable. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions support base metal prices, and prices will continue to fluctuate. There are opportunities for aluminum ingot price increases and low - buying opportunities for copper and tin. In the long term, with potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin, the prices of these metals are expected to rise [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Market Analysis - **Macro - environment**: The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to avoid a government shutdown until January 30, 2026. The 14th Five - Year Plan suggestions are out, increasing the expectation of economic - stabilizing policies. The Fed cut interest rates in October and will end the balance - sheet lock - up process in December, but Powell said a rate cut in December is uncertain [1]. - **Supply - demand situation**: The raw material supply remains tight and is spreading to the smelting end. Overseas aluminum smelting faces potential disruptions. Terminal demand is slightly weak, with a decline in automobile sales growth in October and an expanded decline in air - conditioner production schedules from November to December. The current supply - demand of base metals is slightly weak, but there are expectations of tight supply [1]. 2. Individual Metal Analysis Copper - **View**: Copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized as inventories decline. - **Information analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the decision on further rate cuts in December is uncertain. The US financial system's liquidity may still be deteriorating. In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month by 2.94 tons (2.62%), and increased year - on - year by 9.63%. As of November 10, copper inventories dropped by 0.74 tons to 19.59 tons. - **Main logic**: Macro factors and tight liquidity in the US money market led to a short - term adjustment in copper prices. On the supply side, copper mine supply disruptions increased, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling rose, leading to a decline in production. On the demand side, copper spot turned to a premium, and inventory started to decline, indicating increased downstream purchasing willingness. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the medium - to - long term due to supply constraints and disruptions [7][8]. Alumina - **View**: The fundamentals are still in surplus, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, alumina spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. - **Main logic**: Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Although there are some fluctuations in high - cost production capacity and environmental factors cause disruptions, the supply contraction is not obvious, and the inventory is still increasing strongly in China [9]. Aluminum - **View**: Aluminum prices are fluctuating at a high level as inventories accumulate. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Aluminum rod and ingot inventories showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts increased. Some overseas aluminum plants have extended their operations, and China's un - wrought aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased in October. - **Main logic**: The macro - environment is volatile. On the supply side, domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, and there are marginal disruptions overseas. On the demand side, the traditional peak season has passed, and the terminal demand is stable. - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong. In the medium term, the price center may continue to rise [10][11][12]. Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Aluminum alloy prices are fluctuating at a high level as scrap aluminum supply remains tight. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged, and the automobile sales decreased slightly in October. - **Main logic**: The cost of scrap aluminum is strongly supported. On the supply side, there are risks of production cuts in some alloy plants. On the demand side, there is marginal improvement, and the warehouse receipts are increasing. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong. In the medium term, prices are expected to fluctuate due to uncertain policies and raw material disruptions [13][15]. Zinc - **View**: Zinc prices are fluctuating at a high level as the export window opens. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were negative. As of November 10, the zinc ingot inventory increased slightly. A mine in Australia postponed high - grade zinc ore mining. - **Main logic**: The macro - environment is optimistic. On the supply side, the short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and the smelting profit is good, with high production. The export window has opened, relieving domestic supply pressure. On the demand side, the domestic consumption is entering the off - season. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [16]. Lead - **View**: Lead prices are fluctuating as social inventories accumulate slightly. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of lead ingots increased slightly. The social inventory and warehouse receipts increased. - **Main logic**: On the supply side, the profit of secondary lead smelting increased, and the production increased. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery plants resumed production, and the demand is in the peak season. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong [17][18]. Nickel - **View**: Nickel prices are fluctuating as the current supply - demand is loose. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia cracked down on illegal nickel mining, and there were developments in mining governance. - **Main logic**: Market sentiment dominates the price. The supply of nickel ore is loose, the production of intermediate products has recovered, and the inventory has accumulated. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [19][20]. Stainless Steel - **View**: Stainless steel prices are fluctuating and rising as warehouse receipts continue to decline. - **Information analysis**: The stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased. The price of nickel - iron and chromium decreased. The Indonesian government allocated funds for mining and smelting projects. - **Main logic**: The cost support for steel prices is weakening. The production of stainless steel increased in October, but the downstream demand's acceptance of price increases is limited. The social inventory increased slightly, and the warehouse receipts are at a low level. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [21]. Tin - **View**: Tin prices are fluctuating at a high level as the Shanghai tin inventory continues to decline. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of tin increased. - **Main logic**: There are continuous supply disruptions in tin. The production increase in Wa State may be postponed, and there are problems in other production areas. The domestic tin ore supply is tight, and the processing fee is low. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong [23]. 3. Market Index - On November 10, 2025, the comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index), and PPI commodity index of the non - ferrous metals market all showed increases, with the increase rates being 0.65%, 0.71%, 0.48%, and 0.37% respectively. The non - ferrous metals index increased by 0.58% on that day, 0.85% in the past 5 days, 1.60% in the past month, and 7.76% since the beginning of the year [144][145].