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资产配置周报:关注经济数据和重要会议指引,寻找资产配置方向-20251019
Donghai Securities· 2025-10-19 12:02
[Table_Reportdate] 2025年10月19日 [关注经济数据和重要会议 Table_NewTitle] 指引,寻找资 产配置方向 ——资产配置周报(2025/10/13-2025/10/17) [table_main] 投资要点 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。10月17日当周,全球股市表现分化,法国政府在两项不信任动议投票 中过关,法国CAC指数周内领涨,美股依靠周五交易时间内中美新一轮贸易摩擦可能 ...
国泰君安期货·能源化工:石油沥青周度报告-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 11:44
Report Overview - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Author: Wang Hanxi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - Asphalt follows the decline of crude oil. After the holiday, the shipment volume increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in South China [4]. - The supply of asphalt increased slightly, with the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises reaching 35.8% this week, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% [4]. - The demand showed a month - on - month increase. The sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% [4]. - The spot price of asphalt continued to decline under pressure. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt this period was 3,544 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous period [4]. Summary by Directory Overview - Supply: The capacity utilization rate slightly increased due to the rotation to produce residue oil and shutdown for maintenance at some refineries, and the intermittent production at some main refineries in East China and Jiangsu Xinhai [4]. - Demand: The shipment volume increased month - on - month. Both factory and social inventories showed a destocking trend. The actual trading atmosphere was average in East China, and low - priced resources in social inventories were given priority [4]. - Valuation: The spot price of asphalt continued to decline, with the price range widening. All 7 regional prices decreased, with the largest decline of 4.2% in North China [4]. - Strategy: No specific strategies for unilateral, inter - period, or inter - variety trading were provided [4]. Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different raw materials have different asphalt yields [7]. - Futures: The disk price and trading volume of asphalt futures are presented, along with the comparison of Brent, WTI, and SC prices [11]. - Spot: The prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions are shown, as well as the price differences between regions and the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [12]. - Spread: The basis and inter - month spread of asphalt are presented, including the basis in Shandong, North China, the Yangtze River Delta, etc. [14][15][16] Fundamental Data - Demand: The consumption of asphalt is mainly in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, etc. The shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 2.9% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 12.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5% [20][24]. - Supply: The weekly output of domestic asphalt was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons (2.7%) week - on - week and an increase of 139,000 tons (29.0%) year - on - year. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories decreased by 2.4%, and the inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses decreased by 2.1% [28].
高频经济周报:地产市场回升,港口吞吐量下行-20251018
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-18 12:08
Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the economic situation from multiple aspects, including industrial production, people and freight flow, consumption, investment, export, and the performance of major asset classes. It points out that industrial production shows seasonal recovery, people flow increases while freight prices decline slightly, consumption has mixed performance, construction shows weakness while the real - estate market recovers seasonally, port throughput decreases, and shipping indices are differentiated. Also, major asset classes show distinct trends with bond indices rising, stock indices falling, most commodities dropping, and foreign currencies appreciating [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Major Asset Classes - This week, bond indices generally rose, stock indices generally fell, most commodities declined, and foreign currencies generally appreciated. Among them, the ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 0.33%; the STAR 50 Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 6.16%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most among commodities, with a gain of 10.76%, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index fell the most, with a decline of 3.43%. Foreign currencies appreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest increase, a weekly gain of 1.22%, and the US dollar appreciating against the RMB, with a weekly gain of 0.05% [1]. 2. Industrial Production - Production shows seasonal recovery. In the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 1.30 pcts to 35.80% week - on - week, the blast furnace operating rate remained flat at 84.25% compared with last week, and the crude steel output increased by 7.57% week - on - week. In the real - estate chain, the operating rate of rebar production increased by 1.35 pcts to 41.33% week - on - week, the operating rate of float glass increased by 0.34 pcts to 76.65% week - on - week, and the mill operation rate decreased by 0.49 pcts to 37.89% week - on - week. In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament decreased by 0.03 pcts to 91.06% week - on - week, the operating rate of PTA decreased by 1.92 pcts to 75.56% week - on - week, and the operating rate of methanol increased by 4.00 pcts to 84.38% week - on - week. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased by 26.21 pcts to 72.72% week - on - week, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 20.56 pcts to 64.52% week - on - week [1]. 3. People and Freight Flow - People flow increased, while freight prices declined slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 3.25% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 0.66% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 0.11% week - on - week. The subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou all decreased. In terms of freight flow, the 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.02% week - on - week, but the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1]. 4. Consumption - Automobile retail sales showed a decline, and prices were differentiated. The previous period's automobile wholesale sales decreased by 1.00% year - on - year, and retail sales increased by 7.00% year - on - year. The 4WMA of the wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates both declined. This period's movie box office decreased by 73% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of movie - goers decreased by 73% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices were differentiated, with pork prices decreasing by 2.38% week - on - week and vegetable prices increasing by 0.13% week - on - week [1]. 5. Investment - Construction showed weakness, while the real - estate market recovered seasonally. The cement storage capacity ratio increased by 1.6 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.01% week - on - week, and the cement shipping rate decreased by 2.1 pcts week - on - week. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.4% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 39.4% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was weak. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 171.0% week - on - week. By city - tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 165.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1]. 6. Export - Port throughput decreased, and shipping indices were differentiated. This period's port cargo throughput decreased by 8.4% week - on - week, and the container throughput decreased by 6.1% week - on - week. The BDI index increased by 6.87% week - on - week, the SCFI index increased by 12.92% week - on - week, and the CCFI index decreased by 4.11% week - on - week [1].
前三季度新疆招商引资区外到位资金超8400亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-18 10:16
重点领域投资亮点纷呈,特色优势产业集群表现突出,落实执行项目3133个,引进区外到位资金 7151.71亿元,同比增长19.02%。 中国(新疆)自由贸易试验区建设成为招商引资重要平台,落实执行项目263个,引进区外到位资金 494.8亿元,乌鲁木齐片区、喀什片区、霍尔果斯片区分别到位259.56亿元、85.77亿元、149.47亿元。 (完) 按投资主体性质划分,国有企业投资活力强劲,到位资金2692.73亿元,同比增长38.01%,主要投向风 电光电、石油化工、火电、煤炭等领域;民间投资作为主力军,到位资金5782.64亿元,占比68.23%, 同比增长10.87%,投资范围涵盖风电光电、房地产、商贸物流、电子信息技术、新材料等领域。援疆 省市持续发挥帮扶作用,19个援疆省市到位资金5667.75亿元,占总资金的66.87%,同比增长16.73%, 北京、浙江、广东总量居前。 产业结构投资持续优化。数据显示,前三季度新疆第一产业落实执行项目177个,引进区外到位资金 142.74亿元,同比增长12.75%;第二产业项目2375个,到位资金6074.2亿元,同比增长16.03%;第三产 业项目1454个,到 ...
【图】2025年6月江苏省硫酸产量统计分析
Chan Ye Diao Yan Wang· 2025-10-18 07:44
摘要:【图】2025年6月江苏省硫酸产量统计分析 2025年1-6月硫酸产量分析: 图表:江苏省硫酸产量分月(当月值)统计 注:从2011年起,我国规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务 收入2000万元。 据国家统计局数据,在2025年的前6个月,江苏省规模以上工业企业硫酸产量累计达到了118.8万吨,与 2024年同期的数据相比,下降了9.5%,增速较2024年同期低8.3个百分点,增速较同期全国低15.8个百 分点,约占同期全国规模以上企业硫酸产量5490.93572万吨的比重为2.2%。 图表:江苏省硫酸产量分月(累计值)统计 2025年6月硫酸产量分析: 单独看2025年6月份,江苏省规模以上工业企业硫酸产量达到了17.5万吨,与2024年同期的数据相比,6 月份的产量下降了24.2%,增速较2024年同期低30.4个百分点,增速较同期全国低33.2个百分点,约占 同期全国规模以上企业硫酸产量922.35982万吨的比重为1.9%。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油发展前景趋势分析 化工的现状和发展趋势 日化行业现状与发展趋势润滑油市场现状及前景分 ...
上海石油化工股份(00338.HK):10月17日南向资金增持204.4万股
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-17 19:24
Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds increased their holdings in Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited (00338.HK) by 2.044 million shares on October 17, 2025, despite experiencing net reductions on three days in the past five trading days, totaling a net decrease of 2.4 million shares [1] Group 1: Shareholding Changes - Over the last 20 trading days, southbound funds have increased their holdings on 11 days, with a total net increase of 5.75 million shares [1] - As of October 17, 2025, southbound funds hold 1.056 billion shares of Shanghai Petrochemical, accounting for 32.84% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] - The shareholding changes over the last five trading days are as follows: - October 17: 10.56 billion shares, +204.4 thousand shares, +0.19% - October 16: 10.54 billion shares, +133.8 thousand shares, +0.13% - October 15: 10.52 billion shares, -106.0 thousand shares, -0.10% - October 14: 10.53 billion shares, -224.8 thousand shares, -0.21% - October 13: 10.56 billion shares, -247.4 thousand shares, -0.23% [2] Group 2: Company Overview - Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited primarily engages in the petrochemical industry, operating through three segments: refining products, chemical products, and petrochemical product trading [2] - The refining products segment includes facilities for producing qualified refined gasoline, kerosene, diesel, heavy oil, and liquefied petroleum gas [2] - The chemical products segment mainly produces paraxylene, benzene, ethylene oxide, polyethylene resin, polypropylene resin, acrylic fiber, and carbon fiber [2] - The petrochemical product trading segment focuses on the import and export of petrochemical products, along with leasing services and various other commercial activities [2]
股票行情快报:茂化实华(000637)10月17日主力资金净卖出727.91万元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-17 14:35
证券之星消息,截至2025年10月17日收盘,茂化实华(000637)报收于4.2元,上涨0.0%,换手率3.51%, 成交量12.78万手,成交额5400.12万元。 茂化实华2025年中报显示,公司主营收入14.8亿元,同比下降22.83%;归母净利润-8265.91万元,同比 上升12.15%;扣非净利润-8011.64万元,同比上升15.4%;其中2025年第二季度,公司单季度主营收入 6.92亿元,同比下降4.42%;单季度归母净利润-4759.12万元,同比上升5.02%;单季度扣非净利 润-4630.19万元,同比上升6.01%;负债率69.18%,投资收益246.87万元,财务费用1759.7万元,毛利率 2.09%。茂化实华(000637)主营业务:化工业务方面:聚丙烯(粉料)、液化气、特种白油、MTBE、异 丁烷、乙醇胺、工业过氧化氢(27.5%/35%)、双环戊二烯、加氢碳九、石油树脂、萘、重焦油等石油化 工产品的生产和销售。 该股主要指标及行业内排名如下: | 指标 | 茂化实华 | 石油行业均值 | 行业排名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 总市值 | 2 ...
涉嫌严重违纪违法,杨学卫被查
中国能源报· 2025-10-17 13:39
Group 1 - The central figure involved is Yang Xuewei, a member of the Party Committee and Chief Accountant of China Petroleum Southwest Chemical Sales Company, who is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [1] - The investigation is being conducted by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Supervisory Commission, along with the Gansu Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection [1]
能化板块周度报告-20251017
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 12:41
能化板块周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251017 张伟伟 从业资格证号:F0269806 投资咨询证号:Z0002796 投资有风险,入市需谨慎 聚酯板块数据周报 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 中新网消息显示,当地时间15日,美国总统特朗普宣称,印度总理莫迪已向他保证,印度将停止向俄罗斯购买石油。印度是全球第三大原油 进口国,其石油需求持续增长,如果印度转向其他来源如中东、美国或非洲来弥补俄罗斯石油的缺口,可能会引发全球贸易流的重新配置。 俄罗斯作为全球主要产油国之一,其出口受限可能会收紧全球原油供应。 据新华社华盛顿10月16日消息,美国总统特朗普16日在社交媒体上发文说,他当天与俄罗斯总统普京进行了长时间通话,主要讨论结束俄乌 冲突及其后的俄美贸易等议题。双方将在匈牙利首都布达佩斯举行面对面会晤。 3 IEA周二表示,全球石油供应增长将较之前预估更为迅速,2026年供应过剩量或将扩大,这是因为OPEC+成员国及其他产油国提高产量,但需 求仍保持萎靡。IEA在月度市场报告称,2025年全球石油供应将增加300万桶/日,高于此前预测的增加270万桶/日;2026年石油供应料进一步 增长240万桶/日。 4 由于美 ...
央企专场招聘西藏青海新疆等地高校生
Xin Hua She· 2025-10-17 11:20
记者从人力资源社会保障部获悉,第十五届中央企业面向西藏青海新疆高校毕业生专场招聘活动日 前启动,将组织中央企业面向西藏、青海、新疆三省区及四川、云南、甘肃涉藏州县,通过定向招聘、 专场招聘活动,搭建供需精准对接平台,积极吸纳当地高校毕业生就业。 招聘活动将持续至2026年6月底,各中央企业陆续在中国国家人才网、中智招聘平台等发布岗位信 息,开展网络招聘。(记者张晓洁) 启动仪式当天,超百家中央企业及地方国有企业在现场招聘会上面向青海高校毕业生提供岗位8000 余个,覆盖新能源、石油化工、地质勘探、电子信息等行业领域。 ...