A股今日（7月14日）走势分化，沪指强势震荡，创业板指弱势下探；港股小幅走高，恒生指数涨0.26%，恒生科技指数涨0.67%。 造纸、锂矿、光伏等"反内卷"概念集体拉升，截至收盘，造纸板块方面，中顺洁柔、森林包装、宜宾纸业涨停，松炀资源涨超5%。 具体来看，沪指盘中在银行、电力等板块的带动下强势上扬，深证成指、创业板指走势疲弱。截至收盘，沪指涨0.27%报3519.65点，深证成指跌0.11%报10684.52 点，创业板指跌0.45%报2197.07点，北证50指数涨0.55%，沪深北三市合计成交14812亿元，较此前一日减少2557亿元。 场内近3200股飘红，"反内卷"概念集体爆发，锂矿、光伏板块等拉升；电力板块再度走强，豫能控股连续两日涨停，建投能源、华电辽能等涨停；银行板块持续活 跃，浦发银行、贵阳银行等涨逾2%；创新药概念午后崛起，之江生物、昂利康、康辰药业涨停，泓博医药涨超10%；人形机器人概念强势，上纬新材涨停斩获4连 板，中大力德连续两日涨停；券商、地产、保险等板块回落。 港股方面，欧科云链大涨逾46%，博安生物涨超22%，蔚来涨超10%，中国神华涨超5%。 "反内卷"概念拉升 锂矿板块方面 ...

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 to be between -52 million yuan and -40 million yuan [1] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is also projected to be between -52 million yuan and -40 million yuan [1] - The preliminary financial data is based on the company's internal calculations and has not been audited by an accounting firm [1] Group 2 - In the same period of the previous year (2024), the net profit attributable to shareholders was -60.0184 million yuan, and the net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was -61.5039 million yuan [2] - The basic earnings per share for the previous year was -0.29 yuan [2] - The main reasons for the expected loss include intense competition in the industry, continued price inversions for products, and negative sales gross margin [2]

2025.07. 14 本文字数：634，阅读时长大约2分钟 7月14日，三大股指收盘涨跌不一，沪指报收3519.65点，涨0.27%；深成指报收10684.52点，跌 0.11%；创业板指报收2197.07点，跌0.45%。 沪深两市全天成交额1.46万亿，较上个交易日缩量2534亿。全市场超3100只个股上涨，超2000只 个股下跌。 造纸板块午后走高，森林包装、宜宾纸业涨停，松炀资源、恒达新材、景兴纸业等跟涨。 资金流向 | No. of Cattle | Page | 2. 11 | | Status of 12.00 | T | 1 | No. of Children | Dr | 1 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 1 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | A Q 1 = 15 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新 | | 张唱 | | 上证指数 | 3519.65 | +9.47 | +0.27% | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory of pulp remains at a high level, with a loose supply side in the fundamental aspect and limited improvement in the downstream demand side. The operating rate is maintained at a low level. However, the futures market is easily affected by macro - sentiment recently. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2509 contract will oscillate and rebound in the range of 5130 - 5390 this week [4] Summary by Directory 1 Paper Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp declined slightly. In Shandong, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star increased by 20 yuan/ton (or +0.34%) to 5920 yuan/ton, while the prices of coniferous pulp Cariboo and Northern Wood remained flat at 6000 yuan/ton and 6200 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish, Bird, and Alpine remained unchanged at 4020 yuan/ton, 4020 yuan/ton, and 4030 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of chemical mechanical pulp Kunhe, virgin pulp Venus, sugarcane pulp, bamboo pulp, and reed pulp also remained stable [9][13] - **Pulp Futures Review**: The pulp futures contract SP2509 oscillated and rebounded within a 230 - point range last week. It closed at 5234 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan/ton (or +3.28%) for the week. The weighted trading volume was 1.422 million lots, a decrease of 103,000 lots compared with the previous week, and the weighted open interest was 274,000 lots, a decrease of 51,200 lots [14] - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 686 yuan/ton, and the discount amplitude decreased by 146 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [18] - **Log Futures Review**: The main log futures contract 2509 oscillated within a narrow range last week. It closed at 786.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 9.0 yuan/cubic meter (or - 1.13%) compared with the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 87,800 lots, a decrease of 13,700 lots, and the weighted open interest was 28,700 lots, an increase of 1,200 lots [20] 2 Paper Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Pulp Weekly Output**: Last week, the pulp output was 475,000 tons, a slight increase of 1,000 tons (or +0.21%) compared with the previous week. The output of broad - leaf pulp was 206,000 tons, and the output of chemical mechanical pulp was 202,000 tons. It is expected that the output of domestic broad - leaf pulp will be about 210,000 tons and the output of chemical mechanical pulp will be about 200,000 tons this week [4][22] - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 76.2%, an increase of 0.6% compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 84.8%, an increase of 0.5% compared with the previous week [27] - **Monthly Pulp Output**: In June 2025, the domestic pulp output was 2.072 million tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons (or - 3.36%) compared with the previous month. Among them, the output of wood pulp was 1.746 million tons, a decrease of 63,000 tons (or - 7.69%), and the output of non - wood pulp was 326,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons (or - 2.69%) [28] - **Monthly Production Profit**: In June 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp was 493.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 167.3 yuan/ton (or - 25.31%) compared with the previous month, and a decrease of 1503.03 yuan/ton (or - 75.28%) compared with the same period last year. The production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 376.9 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 41.1 yuan/ton compared with the previous month [36] - **Pulp Imports**: In May 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.016 million tons, an increase of 123,200 tons (or +4.26%) compared with the previous month and an increase of 196,000 tons (or +6.95%) compared with the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 15.55 million tons, an increase of 320,000 tons (or +2.1%) compared with the same period last year [38] 3 Paper Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper output was 279,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons (or - 0.71%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.2%, a decrease of 0.3% compared with the previous week [40] - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the output of coated paper was 78,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (or +1.30%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 57.3%, an increase of 0.4% compared with the previous week. The output of offset paper was 202,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.49%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.8%, a decrease of 0.2% compared with the previous week [44] - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, the output of white cardboard was 301,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons (or - 3.83%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.41%, a decrease of 2.93% compared with the previous week. The output of white board paper was 193,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.52%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.44%, a decrease of 0.35% compared with the previous week. The output of corrugated paper was 463,600 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons (or - 1.9%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 62.15%, a decrease of 1.21% compared with the previous week. The output of boxboard paper was 619,000 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons (or +0.9%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.35%, an increase of 0.6% compared with the previous week [47][50] - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: In the tissue paper market, the prices of wood pulp, bamboo pulp, and sugarcane pulp base paper remained stable. In the cultural paper market, the price of double - copper paper decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 0.93%), while the price of double - offset paper remained unchanged. In the white board paper market, the prices remained stable, while in the white cardboard market, the price of some products decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 1.26%). The prices of corrugated paper and boxboard paper remained stable [51][55][57] - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the output of tissue paper was 1.193 million tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons (or - 2.37%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.0%, a decrease of 1.5% compared with the previous month. The output of white cardboard was 1.29 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons (or +0.78%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.3%, an increase of 2.58% compared with the previous month. The output of double - offset paper was 862,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons (or - 3.04%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.37%, an increase of 0.1% compared with the previous month. The output of coated paper was 327,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (or - 2.97%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.35%, an increase of 0.15% compared with the previous month. The actual consumption of domestic pulp in June 2025 was 3.195 million tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons (or - 1.6%) compared with the previous month [59][64][67] 4 Paper Pulp Inventory Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory of pulp is in a destocking trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples is 2.179 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons (or - 1.54%) compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port is 1.364 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons (or - 1.02%). The inventory of Changshu Port is 605,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons (or +1.17%), and the inventory of Tianjin Port is 59,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons (or - 4.84%) [70][71] - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Currently, the pulp futures warehouse receipts are 238,500 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons (or - 0.65%) compared with the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong are 218,700 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons (or - 0.7%) [75]

港股纸业股震荡上涨，晨鸣纸业涨超4%，阳光纸业涨超3%，玖龙纸业、理文造纸等均涨超2.5%。 无需港股通，A股账户就能T+0买港股>> ...

港股纸业股震荡上涨，晨鸣纸业(01812.HK)涨超4%，阳光纸业(02002.HK)涨超3%，玖龙纸业 (02689.HK)、理文造纸(02314.HK)等均涨超2.5%。 ...

A股造纸板块震荡走高，宜宾纸业触及涨停，森林包装、中顺洁柔此前封板，景兴纸业、恒达新材、松 炀资源跟涨。 ...

造纸板块走高，宜宾纸业（600793）触及涨停，森林包装（605500）此前封板，景兴纸业（002067）、 恒达新材（301469）、松炀资源（603863）跟涨。 暗盘资金一眼洞悉庄家意图>> ...

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" research trend is gaining momentum in the A-share market, with expectations that it may become the main theme for the next market phase, benefiting various sectors such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, coal, steel, chemicals, energy, and construction materials [2][3][4]. Group 1: Research and Analysis - In the past week, a total of 176 research reports on the "anti-involution" theme were published by institutions, covering multiple industries including strategy, macroeconomics, steel, fossil energy, electrical equipment, building materials, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and aquaculture [2]. - The "anti-involution" theme has become a focal point in analyst roadshows, with 79 related events held in the past week, indicating a strong institutional interest [2]. - Analysts believe that the current round of "anti-involution" has a higher standing, broader coverage, and stronger synergy, with potential implications for the market's next phase [3]. Group 2: Policy and Market Implications - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to promote a unified national market and address issues of low-price competition, which has led to increased attention on "anti-involution" in the capital market [3]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to unfold in three stages: policy expectations, price increases, and demand expansion, with a focus on sectors that may experience a turnaround [4]. Group 3: Beneficiary Industries - Key sectors expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies include: - Midstream and downstream manufacturing such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, wind power, passenger vehicles, paper, and medical devices - Service and consumer sectors like food processing, express delivery, and small appliances - Resource materials including steel, cement/glass, consumer building materials, chemical fibers/agricultural chemicals, and energy metals - Real estate-related sectors such as kitchen appliances and home furnishings [5][6]. - The steel industry is highlighted for its potential bottom reversal, with supply-side reforms and improved profitability expected [8]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic industry is entering a high-quality development phase, with significant stock price increases observed in related sectors [9]. - Analysts suggest that the photovoltaic sector's recovery will depend on effective supply-side reforms and the establishment of a long-term mechanism for eliminating outdated capacity [9]. - Recent downgrades in specific photovoltaic stocks indicate a cautious outlook despite the overall positive sentiment in the sector [10].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - There is no explicit core view presented in the report. Group 3: Data Summaries SP Main Contract - On July 11, 2025, the SP main contract closed at 5234.00. From July 7 - 11, the closing prices were 5074.00, 5086.00, 5106.00, 5196.00, and 5234.00 respectively. The corresponding dollar - converted prices were 617.21, 618.82, 620.49, 632.01, and 637.28, with daily increases of 0.11839%, 0.23650%, 0.39324%, 1.76263%, and 0.73133% [3]. - The Shandong Yinxing basis was 716, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 771 on July 11, 2025 [3]. Import Profits - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp, the import profit of Golden Lion was 110.36, and that of Lion was - 334.53. For Chilean pulp, the import profit of Yinxing was 46.49 [4]. Pulp and Paper Prices and Margins - From July 7 - 11, 2025, the national average prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The Shandong regional average prices also remained stable [4]. - For cultural, packaging, and living papers, the indices of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white cardboard, and living paper remained unchanged from July 8 - 11, 2025. The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white cardboard, and living paper had little change during this period, with the living paper profit margin decreasing by 0.0572 [4]. - The price differences between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp, coniferous and natural pulp, coniferous and chemical mechanical pulp, and coniferous pulp and waste paper also showed little change from July 7 - 11, 2025 [4].