Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in July, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Price Indices - The price index for major raw materials increased, with the purchasing price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose above the critical point for the first time since March, suggesting a recovery in market conditions [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [1][4] - The service sector's business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with certain industries like transportation and entertainment showing strong growth due to seasonal effects [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, while the business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 56.6%, indicating optimism among service enterprises [4] Group 4: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [5][6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the composite PMI, standing at 50.5% and 50.1% respectively [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2][21][22] - The production index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, while the new orders index was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [6][22] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [5][23][24] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [11][25] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, while the construction sector's index fell to 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points due to adverse weather conditions [14][25] - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing was 55.8%, indicating optimism among most enterprises regarding market development [17][25] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, but still indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [20][26] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 50.5% and 50.1%, respectively, contributing to the comprehensive index's performance [26]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In July, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions [2][3] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Price Index and Market Conditions - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw materials purchasing price index at 51.5%, marking the first rise above the critical point since March [2] - The production and new orders indices for high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing remained above the critical point, indicating sustained growth in these sectors [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [4] - The service sector showed stability, with a business activity index of 50.0%, while sectors related to travel and consumption experienced high activity levels [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6% due to adverse weather conditions affecting construction activities [4] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities across sectors [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In July, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2][3] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [3] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, although it decreased by 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5% [4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point [5] - The service industry business activity index was stable at 50.0%, with sectors related to travel and consumption showing strong performance, while real estate and residential services lagged [5][6] - The construction business activity index fell to 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, due to adverse weather conditions affecting construction activities [6] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the comprehensive PMI, standing at 50.5% and 50.1% respectively [7]

Manufacturing Sector - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions [2][3] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [3] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [4] - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw materials purchasing price index rising to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March [3][4] - New momentum in the manufacturing sector is evident, with the equipment manufacturing PMI at 50.3% and high-tech manufacturing PMI at 50.6%, both above the critical point [4] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point [5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, with significant growth in transportation and tourism-related industries, while real estate and residential services lagged [5][6] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, with a corresponding decrease in market expectations [6] Composite PMI - The Composite PMI Output Index decreased to 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were recorded at 50.5% and 50.1%, respectively, both indicating continued expansion [7]

Economic Overview - In Q2, the actual GDP growth was 5.2% year-on-year, while nominal GDP growth fell to 3.9%, marking a decline of 0.2 and 0.7 percentage points from Q1 respectively[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate has dropped below 4%, the lowest in nearly three years, primarily due to strong supply and weak demand characteristics[23] Supply and Demand Balance - Q3 is expected to see a balance between supply and demand, driven by the implementation of "anti-involution" policies and improved confidence in the real sector[2] - The recovery in consumption is gradually being confirmed, with "anti-involution" policies likely being a key factor influencing Q3 economic performance[4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Q2 grew by only 1.8% year-on-year, a significant drop of 2.4 percentage points from Q1, with infrastructure and manufacturing investments experiencing widespread contraction[11] - In June, fixed asset investment saw a month-on-month decline of 0.1%, marking a historical low[11] Consumer Behavior - The nominal growth rate of social retail sales in Q2 was 4.5%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from Q1, indicating a moderate increase in consumer spending[19] - In June, social retail sales growth fell to 4.8%, a significant drop of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, with most categories experiencing a broad decline[20] Inflation and Market Dynamics - The report suggests that moderate inflation positively impacts corporate operations and household balance sheets, with expectations of a gradual recovery in nominal GDP growth[2] - The bond market is currently benefiting from a low inflation environment and ample liquidity, although the upward potential for bond prices is limited in the short term[27] Geopolitical and Policy Risks - Risks include geopolitical tensions and the potential for policy changes that exceed expectations, which could impact economic stability[3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive shift in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June, indicating a recovery in consumer demand and the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies [4][5][6] - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year after four consecutive months of decline, primarily driven by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices [5][6][8] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest increase in nearly 14 months [8] Group 2 - In June, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, which is a larger drop compared to the previous month [2][11][14] - Factors contributing to the PPI decline include seasonal price drops in raw materials, increased green energy leading to lower energy prices, and downward pressure on prices in export-oriented industries due to global trade slowdowns [12][13][14] - Despite the PPI decline, some industries are experiencing price stabilization and recovery due to improved supply-demand relationships and supportive macroeconomic policies [14][15]

Group 1: CPI Trends - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year after four months of negative growth, influenced by the recovery of industrial product prices [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high, indicating effective policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption [1][3] Group 2: PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, which is an increase in the rate of decline by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] - The decline in PPI is attributed to seasonal price decreases in domestic raw material manufacturing, increased green electricity leading to lower energy prices, and price pressures in export-oriented industries [5][6] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - In the automotive sector, prices for both gasoline and new energy vehicle manufacturing increased by 0.5% and 0.3% month-on-month, respectively, with year-on-year declines narrowing by 1.9 and 0.4 percentage points [1] - The photovoltaic equipment and electronic components manufacturing prices fell by 10.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points [1] - High-tech industries such as integrated circuit packaging and testing saw price increases of 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a growth in new production capacities and innovation [6] Group 4: Policy Implications - The government aims to balance the expansion of domestic demand with supply-side structural reforms to improve market price order and promote reasonable price recovery [7][8] - The effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, particularly those supporting the real estate sector, will significantly influence future industrial product price trends [6]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries compared to last month[6] - Large enterprises' PMI is 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI is 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points[11] Supply and Demand - The production index and new orders index are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points[15] - The supply and demand index has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, with certain industries like food and beverage showing expansion[15] - Non-metal mineral products and black metal smelting industries continue to contract due to insufficient end demand from the real estate sector[15] Price Index and Procurement - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index are at 48.4% and 46.2%, both rising by 1.5 percentage points[20] - The procurement index has increased to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points, indicating a rise in enterprise procurement activity[21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability[24] - The construction sector's business activity index is 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, showing a seasonal rebound but with notable sub-sector differentiation[26] Risks - External disturbances and changes in real estate demand pose risks to the overall economic outlook[30]

Core Viewpoint - After the weakening of tariff frictions, the manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, although industry differentiation has intensified, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate sector [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a seasonal rebound [2]. - The purchasing index rebounded, suggesting that enterprises are gradually adapting to external disturbances, shifting from cautious expansion to a more positive outlook for future production [2]. - There is a notable divergence between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises continuing to expand while small enterprises are further contracting [2]. Supply and Demand - The overall supply and demand index in June showed a seasonal recovery, with certain industries like food, beverages, and specialized equipment in the expansion zone [3]. - The recovery in supply and demand is attributed to the easing of tariff frictions and the positive impact of fiscal policies, particularly in equipment renewal [3]. - Conversely, industries such as non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting continue to experience contraction due to insufficient end-demand driven by real estate pressures [3]. Price Index - The manufacturing price index increased in June, primarily driven by rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East, while the price index for the black metal smelting industry continued to decline [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, indicating stability, but several industries, including retail and transportation, fell below the critical point after the May Day holiday effect faded [3]. - The construction sector showed a seasonal rebound, with civil engineering activities remaining robust, although demand for commercial housing was weak in the second quarter, potentially dragging down overall construction sentiment [3]. Policy Outlook - With the easing of tariff frictions, addressing low inflation internally is crucial. The government plans to issue the third batch of funds for the old-for-new consumer goods program in July, with expectations for positive policy effects [4]. - Future macroeconomic policies are likely to remain proactive, with a steady and loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal measures anticipated [4].