在中银证券首席策略分析师王君看来，8月投资应"轻指数，重结构"，在资金面支撑及基本面弱修复的 背景下，市场下行风险可控，节奏上或仍是"进二退一"，市场指数中枢有望逐级抬升。就风格而言，科 技成长板块有望迎来反弹机会。 青睐TMT、军工、医药等板块 "中上旬指数可能会呈现震荡格局，中下旬重新回归此前的上行趋势。"谈及对A股8月行情的展望，招 商证券首席策略分析师张夏如是说。 在经历小幅调整后，8月4日-5日，A股市场连续反弹。截至8月5日收盘，A股三大股指集体收涨，其中 上证指数重新站上3600点关口，并创出今年以来收盘新高。从成交情况看，A股近几个交易日的日成交 额均在1.5万亿元以上，市场交投活跃态势仍在延续。 在张夏看来，8月进入上市公司中报业绩集中披露期，部分涨幅比较大、偏主题概念的股票面临一定调 整压力，但8月中旬后市场风险偏好有望提升，叠加盈利效应积累后场外增量资金持续流入，最终A股 在8月有望走出"先抑后扬"走势，指数创下今年以来新高的可能性较大。 国泰海通首席策略分析师方奕同样看好A股股指后市续创今年以来新高，对投资者而言，市场出现调整 应"逆势"提高仓位："'反内卷'背后是经济治理思路的转变， ...

● 本报记者胡雨 在经历小幅调整后，8月4日-5日，A股市场连续反弹。截至8月5日收盘，A股三大股指集体收涨，其中 上证指数重新站上3600点关口，并创出今年以来收盘新高。从成交情况看，A股近几个交易日的日成交 额均在1.5万亿元以上，市场交投活跃态势仍在延续。 在张夏看来，8月进入上市公司中报业绩集中披露期，部分涨幅比较大、偏主题概念的股票面临一定调 整压力，但8月中旬后市场风险偏好有望提升，叠加盈利效应积累后场外增量资金持续流入，最终A股 在8月有望走出"先抑后扬"走势，指数创下今年以来新高的可能性较大。 国泰海通首席策略分析师方奕同样看好A股股指后市续创今年以来新高，对投资者而言，市场出现调整 应"逆势"提高仓位："'反内卷'背后是经济治理思路的转变，政策持续优化和推进为远期企业净资产收益 率(ROE)企稳提供条件，也为股市打开空间；资本市场改革极大提高了中国股市的可投资性，稳股市机 制建设也有力提高了中国股市的韧性，并降低风险溢价。" 在中银证券（601696）首席策略分析师王君看来，8月投资应"轻指数，重结构"，在资金面支撑及基本 面弱修复的背景下，市场下行风险可控，节奏上或仍是"进二退一"，市场指 ...

Group 1 - The decision-making departments have signaled ample policy space for the second half of the year, emphasizing the importance of policy rhythm and precision in implementation [1] - The central bank may utilize tools such as relending and rediscounting for more targeted liquidity support to stabilize the real economy, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment expected to maintain high growth rates [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is becoming a new focus, aiming to prevent low-level repeated construction and regional vicious competition, which will have a profound impact on the competitive landscape and profit prospects of related industries [2] Group 2 - The short-term outlook suggests that abundant policy space, particularly in fiscal and monetary support, will boost market expectations, while supply-side optimization driven by "anti-involution" policies may improve the supply-demand balance in certain industries [3] - The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle not yet over, allowing for a stable trend of liquidity easing domestically [3] - Key sectors expected to benefit include technology growth, "anti-involution" related industries, and consumer sectors, with specific opportunities in TMT, machinery, military, new energy, pharmaceuticals, coal, steel, building materials, automotive, chemicals, logistics, semiconductors, robotics, artificial intelligence, home appliances, consumer electronics, retail, and new consumption sectors such as social services, food, and beauty care [3]

增量资金风险偏好带来 投资方向 权益资产行情 对比中证800和Wind全A, 权益资产的性价比位于近 15年来的相对高位。相对于防守型的固定收益属性的 生息资产, 风险属性高的权益资产也许更具优势。 权益资产 固定收益 权益渠票 关注反内卷+生产力创新 景气度 近期景气度排名前五的行业为计算机、 有色金属、钢铁、轻工制造、医药。 拥挤度 拥挤度尚有空间的行业有TMT、金融 和消费。 资金面 公募股基仓位尚未到历史高位,交易性 强、板块轮动快。 月度来看,风险偏好的提高会抬升大盘成长、新质生 产力中人工智能、机器人等的创新科技引领小盘内部 结构性机会。 宽信用开启阶段 全球经济政策不确定性回落 a | 华宝基金 熟八月 金九月 253 2210 as 2012 22 Th aa 49,11 | LT -10% P 宏观环境 总体呈现向上趋势 宽货币条件充裕 反内卷方向 化工ETF 516020 有色龙头ETF 159876 生产力创新方向 国内外科技大厂资本开支飙升. 人工智能基础设施的 投资热情不减:三运营商的资本开支在传统的移动通 信基础设施上有所减少, 在算力基建上稳中有升。 【 相关产品 ■ 15936 ...

2025年7月，创业板指呈现显著上涨态势，月度累计涨幅达8.14%，延续了6月的上涨趋势，形成连续两个月的强势表现，在市场普涨的行情下领先其它市场 大盘指数；资金面方面，7月市场交投活跃度显著提升，月末A股日均成交额超2万亿元，较6月环比增长显著。在价量齐升的背景下市场风格明显偏向成 长。在具体行业层面，整个7月医药生物、通信等板块涨幅靠前，均为创业板权重领域，行业的表现与创业板指的强势形成呼应。那么站在八月初展望未 来，创业板指是否还有配置机会？ 图：6月底以来市场情绪积极利好成长风格 数据来源：Wind，截至2025/7/31 我们先梳理海内外的宏观环境。国内宏观经济方面，7月制造业PMI在荣枯线下方继续回落，PPI数据仍然承压，但"反内卷"政策对原材料、产成品价格起到 明显提振作用。政治局会议信号显示，下半年经济政策重心转向调结构，结构性货币政策工具将重点支持科技创新、消费等领域，与创业板的行业构成高度 契合，后续随供需格局改善，指数盈利边际上或改善明显。海外方面，美联储货币政策走向成为关键变量。FOMC未于7月降息，叠加非农数据显著下修点 燃市场降息预期。对华关税或维持原先走势，但考虑美国经济景气程度 ...

Market Overview - On August 5, the A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3600 points and closing up 0.53% at 3602.13 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.14% and the ChiNext Index fell 0.26% due to adjustments in AI hardware [2][3] - The Hong Kong market continued its rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.27% to 24799.67 points, driven by strong performances in healthcare and materials sectors [2][3] Leading and Lagging Sectors - In the A-share market, leading sectors included PEEK materials, consumer electronics, steel, real estate, and banking, with respective gains of 1.32%, 1.24%, and 1.12%, driven by policy catalysts and expectations of infrastructure investment [2][3] - Lagging sectors showed a "high to low" characteristic, with declines in computer and pharmaceutical sectors of 0.64% and 0.45%, reflecting cautious sentiment towards high-valuation tech stocks [3][4] - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare index led with a 1.91% increase, supported by the new pricing mechanism for innovative drugs, while the paper and packaging index surged 4.47% due to a new round of price hikes [3][5] Investment Insights - The current market is characterized by "structural trends and accelerated capital rotation," with A-shares facing profit-taking pressure around the 3600-point mark but maintaining high trading volumes [6] - Investment focus should be on sectors benefiting from policy support, such as new materials, consumer electronics, and infrastructure chains, while monitoring economic data and policy interactions between China and the US for Hong Kong stocks [6] - Long-term investment themes include technology (AI, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing), new consumption (smart home, service consumption), and non-ferrous metals, which are seen as having allocation value [6]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - A-share market in China - Hong Kong stock market Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook for August 2025**: The A-share market is expected to experience a "first decline, then rise" trend, with the potential for new highs driven by intrinsic value improvement, industry trends, and incremental capital inflow [1][3][6] 2. **Economic Stability**: China's economy is showing signs of stability with fiscal stimulus, resilient exports, and consumer spending, although investment and real estate sectors face pressure [1][14][19] 3. **Financial Indicators**: M1 data indicates improving economic activity, suggesting continued upward momentum in the stock market [1][15][16] 4. **PPI Recovery**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to stabilize, which will support corporate profit growth without strong inflation expectations, benefiting new industry investments [1][22][23] 5. **Key Factors for Index Growth**: Factors include increased intrinsic value of companies, development of eight major industry trends (AI, robotics, etc.), and a positive feedback mechanism from incremental capital inflow [5][6] 6. **Impact of US Tariffs**: Short-term psychological effects from US tariffs may impact A-shares, but long-term effects are limited as companies adjust supply chains [4][18] 7. **Investment Strategy**: A "left-dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on high-quality growth stocks and major industry trends [7][36] 8. **Sector Focus**: High-growth sectors include TMT (technology, media, telecommunications), resilient export sectors, and consumer goods [8][34][35] 9. **Political and Economic Policy**: The political bureau meeting emphasized long-term planning and maintaining economic stability, with less focus on short-term stimulus [11][12] 10. **Market Performance**: The stock market's recent rise is attributed to stable profit growth and increased intrinsic value rather than significant profit increases [23][27] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Private Fund Growth**: The scale of private funds has been expanding, indicating improved risk appetite among investors [26][28] 2. **Foreign Investment Trends**: Continuous inflow of foreign capital into A-shares, with notable interest from high-net-worth individuals [27][30] 3. **Real Estate Sector**: While still a drag on the economy, the negative impact of the real estate sector is lessening [19] 4. **Industrial Price Trends**: The industrial price index is nearing a turning point, which could influence market dynamics in the coming years [20][21] 5. **Sector Rotation**: Historical data suggests a potential shift from growth sectors to cyclical sectors as PPI recovers [22][23] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions and future expectations for the A-share and Hong Kong markets.

风险提示：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超 预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 首先，上周市场围绕中美瑞典经贸会谈和国内下半年经济预期展开。美国对等关税事件在 5 月之后 逐渐走向缓和。一方面美国同英国、欧盟和其他国家的关税逐渐确定下来。另一方面，中美经历了三轮 经贸谈判，分歧得到一定的管控，非关税壁垒措施也有所减少或者取消。这些都成为近几个月市场回升 的主要推动因素。当然，随着谈判的深入，未来要再取得更大的成果，必定面临更大的困难和波折，特 别是在美国基本面逐步稳定下来，美元指数开始回升的阶段。下半年国内经济增速略有回落是市场共 识，但政策维稳工具丰富，将灵活应对各种挑战也是一致预期。 上周，两市先涨后跌，日均成交减少。沪指上周连续上涨后迎来调整，周三盘中创出年内高点后快 速调整，周五收盘跌破 5 天和 10天均线，收盘于 20 天均线上方。深圳成指同步调整，也在 20 天均线 上方止跌。量能方面，上周两市日均量能不到 18000 亿元，较上周出现小幅萎缩。上周市场热点主要集 中在医药和 TMT 行业。投资风格方面，中小盘相对抗跌。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指在冲击去年高点时 ...

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced a rise followed by a decline, with all major indices closing down after the Politburo meeting, where the CSI 1000 had the smallest drop of 0.54%, while the CSI A50 and CSI 300 fell by 2.48% and 1.75% respectively [3][12] - There was a noticeable divergence in market styles, with growth and consumption sectors experiencing smaller declines, while financial, stability, and cyclical styles saw significant pullbacks [3][12] - Mid-cap and small-cap indices outperformed large-cap indices during the week, with the NING and MAO indices, representing core assets and growth leaders, also declining, with the NING combination down 1.74% and the MAO index down 0.84% [3][12] Investor Sentiment and Market Outlook - The personal investor sentiment index has continued to decline, entering a negative zone, with the 7-day moving average reported at -0.42% as of August 2, down from 4.35% on July 26 [4][19] - The recent Politburo meeting did not indicate any large-scale stimulus plans, suggesting that the focus will shift back to demand recovery rather than potential supply-side reductions [4][32] - The current market dynamics indicate a potential vacuum in buying momentum, necessitating a cautious approach to investment strategies [4][32] Sector Analysis - The healthcare and communication sectors saw gains of over 2%, driven by significant partnerships and strong performance in the CPO sector, respectively, indicating a return to prosperity trading [15] - Conversely, sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, construction materials, and steel experienced substantial declines due to the withdrawal of "anti-involution" trading sentiment following policy announcements [15] Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The report emphasizes a return to prosperity trading, highlighting opportunities for valuation recovery in technology growth sectors, particularly in AI applications, computing power chains, and optical modules [5][33] - The fundamentals of innovative pharmaceuticals and CROs are showing signs of transformation, with continued trading logic for Chinese pharmaceuticals going overseas [5][33]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the overall market trend remains positive in the medium term, despite recent minor adjustments due to external events such as the Central Political Bureau meeting and U.S.-China trade negotiations [2][3][4] - The report recommends three main investment lines: strong growth in technology sectors such as AI, robotics, and military; sectors with economic support or performance exceeding expectations like rare earths, precious metals, and agricultural products; and structural policies in service consumption and real estate that may lead to valuation recovery opportunities [2][4][40] Group 2 - The report highlights that the recent adjustments in the "anti-involution" theme and real estate sectors were due to the Central Political Bureau meeting's outcomes being below market expectations, suggesting a potential correction phase for these sectors [5][18][19] - The technology sector has shown resilience, with several industries reaching new highs, indicating that the current technology market may continue to develop positively as key warning indicators have not yet been fully met [6][26][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring five warning indicators to assess the sustainability of the current technology market, including valuation percentiles and market breadth [26][35][38]