Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.02, representing a potential upside of 57% from the current price of HKD 1.92 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is strategically embracing AI, which is expected to stabilize and improve its business performance. The focus is on high-quality business development and optimizing revenue sources, leading to a significant improvement in gross margin [7]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 775 million in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a strategic reduction in low-margin businesses. However, it achieved an adjusted net profit of RMB 17 million, marking a significant turnaround from a loss of RMB 187 million in the same period of 2024 [7]. - The advertising business is under pressure due to policy adjustments and environmental factors, but there is an expectation for gradual recovery in 2026 as consumer spending improves [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, was RMB 2,227,684 thousand, with a projected decline to RMB 1,339,255 thousand in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 1,612,762 thousand in 2025 [4][9]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 767,674 thousand in 2023 to a loss of RMB 521,922 thousand in 2025, indicating a trend towards profitability [4][9]. - The gross margin is projected to increase from 67% in 2023 to 71% in 2025, reflecting improved operational efficiency [9][10].

Market Review - In the past five trading days (December 5 to December 11), major indices showed mixed performance; the Shanghai Composite Index slightly decreased by 0.06%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 3.14% [3] - The trading volume increased, with a total of 9.30 trillion yuan traded, resulting in an average daily trading volume of 1.86 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 205.98 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [11] Economic Data - In November, exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, significantly rebounding from October, influenced by a lower base, stable external demand, and the end of holiday disruptions [26] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year [28] Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 8, outlining the economic work for 2026, emphasizing a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy [34] - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, indicating a focus on structural adjustments and the continuation of "anti-involution" policies [34] Investment Strategy - The A-share market continues to exhibit a volatile characteristic, with a positive outlook driven by policy support and liquidity expectations [36] - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics due to ongoing AI capital expansion and domestic substitution processes [36] - The energy storage demand and solid-state battery industrialization present investment opportunities in the power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors [36] - The banking sector is also highlighted as a potential area for investment due to the low interest rate environment and the return of public fund holdings to performance benchmarks [37]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment in 2025 shows resilience in external demand while internal demand remains volatile, leading to uncertainty in demand prospects [6][7]. - From January to September 2025, China's export growth maintained a strong resilience with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 6.1%, driven by high-value-added products like electromechanical products [6][7]. - A-share core entities' foreign income maintained high growth, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4% in H1 2025, while domestic income saw a reduced decline of -0.1% [12][13]. Group 2 - The TMT and manufacturing sectors are experiencing a recovery in both internal and external demand, with significant support from AI-related applications and domestic supply-demand policies [21][22]. - The TMT sector benefits from strong growth in overseas demand, particularly in the communication and semiconductor industries, with communication equipment's foreign income growing by 33.3% in H1 2025 [27][28]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in power equipment and defense industries, shows improved domestic income growth, indicating a positive trend supported by policy measures [12][19]. Group 3 - The majority of TMT and manufacturing industries have a high proportion of foreign income, generally exceeding 10%, indicating a reliance on synchronized internal and external demand [18][20]. - The gross profit margins for most TMT and manufacturing sectors are significantly higher for foreign operations compared to domestic ones, with differences often exceeding 10 percentage points [32][33]. - Future opportunities are anticipated in technology manufacturing and domestic market construction, particularly in AI technology and equipment manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from supportive policies [19][21].

Group 1 - The non-bank financial sector has received favorable policies, contributing to a significant market rebound. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a reduction in risk factors for insurance companies, indicating a strategic focus on encouraging insurance capital to enter the market. Additionally, the chairman of the China Securities Association emphasized the importance of differentiated regulation and support for high-quality institutions, which has raised expectations for improved profitability among leading securities firms [1] - On Monday, the stock markets experienced a volatile rebound with a noticeable increase in trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and continued to rebound, filling the gap left on November 21, while the Shenzhen Component Index showed stronger performance, closing above all moving averages. The total trading volume for both markets was around 2 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous Friday. The main market focus was on the TMT and military industries, with technology stocks and small-cap stocks performing particularly well [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently in a process of rebound after a rapid adjustment. Following a quick decline in late November, the index found support above the low point from early October and has gradually stabilized and rebounded. As of Monday, the downward gap from November 21 has been successfully filled, and future attention should be paid to changes in fundamental expectations [2]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the upcoming spring rally is likely to occur earlier than usual due to significant adjustments in November and a late Spring Festival, suggesting a favorable environment for early positioning in December [1][25][39] - Historical data shows that growth-type spring rallies account for nearly 60% of past spring market trends, driven primarily by liquidity easing and technology policy expectations [2][55] - The cyclical spring rally, while less frequent, still holds strong predictive value, with approximately 40% of past rallies characterized by inventory replenishment and inflation expectations [2][60] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that both technology and cyclical sectors can thrive simultaneously, suggesting a dual-driven approach to investment strategies [4][48] - Key sectors for investment include technology (military, media, AI applications) and cyclical industries (solar, chemicals, steel), which are expected to benefit from improving PPI and anti-involution policies [4][60] - The report highlights that the spring rally is not confined to the spring season, as it can be influenced by macroeconomic expectations, liquidity improvements, and institutional behavior [25][34] Group 3 - The report outlines that the spring rally typically features a strong focus on high beta stocks, with significant sector rotation reflecting the market's anticipation of economic trends and policy directions [49][55] - It notes that the performance of growth stocks is particularly sensitive to liquidity conditions and technology policy, making them prime candidates for investment during the spring rally [56][59] - The cyclical rally is characterized by a recovery in resource prices and manufacturing sectors, driven by inventory replenishment and improving economic conditions [60]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a continuous volume contraction rebound, with improved funding conditions due to the warming expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and enhanced effectiveness of domestic fundamental pricing [1] - Recent improvements in the TMT and upstream resource sectors have been notable, with a focus on AI chains, pricing chains, capital goods, consumer goods, and infrastructure chains [1] - The upcoming "spring restlessness" in mid to late December may lead to an early start, balancing growth and cyclical investments, with a mid-term view favoring large financials and certain high-value consumer stocks as core choices for asset revaluation in China [1] Group 2 - The market is experiencing a rotation of volatility and structural opportunities, with traditional manufacturing and resource sectors being undervalued in terms of global pricing power [3] - Since the "9.24 market" last year, the overall market has seen a systematic increase in financing, with a net increase of 1.11 trillion yuan, significantly surpassing the total issuance of public and private bullish products since October of the previous year [3] - Major broad-based indices and thriving sectors have achieved most of their gains during these two market waves, while other periods have been relatively flat, with effective gains seen in quant-driven micro-accounts, insurance-driven banks, and price-driven non-ferrous metals [3] Group 3 - The market remains in an upward trend supported by funding and policy, with expectations for the A-share market to continue its bull run next year, supported by valuation and profit stabilization [4] - Easing geopolitical risks and renewed expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are likely to bring a pre-spring restlessness rally to the A-share market, with upcoming U.S.-China policy expectations being a key factor [4] - The AI sector is expected to continue its momentum under the 2026 U.S.-China interest rate cycle and strengthening AI trends, with a focus on "scarcity" in energy and power, as well as dual development in AI applications and ecosystem construction [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to rebound with reduced trading volume, supported by improved funding conditions and effective domestic fundamental pricing [1] - The recent improvement in TMT and upstream resource sectors indicates potential investment opportunities, particularly in AI chains, price increase chains, capital goods, consumer goods, and infrastructure [1] - The market is expected to experience structural opportunities and fluctuations before any significant changes in domestic demand, with traditional manufacturing and resource sectors being undervalued [1][2] Group 2 - The overall market remains in an upward trend supported by funding and policy, with expectations for a bull market to continue into next year [2] - Geopolitical risks are easing, and the renewed expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may trigger a spring rally in the A-share market [2] - The AI sector is anticipated to continue its growth, with a focus on critical areas such as energy storage and power, as well as applications driven by AI interaction and ecosystem development [2]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华泰证券策略研究 上周A股继续缩量反弹。资金面，联储降息预期回暖和国内基本面定价有效性提升共振下资金面环境有 所改善，主动外资净流出规模收窄、ETF发行和申购回暖，保险风险因子下调或进一步打开险资配置权 益资产空间。景气度，近期TMT、上游资源景气改善幅度居前，关注AI链、涨价链、资本品、大众消 费品和基建链等线索。政治局及中央经济会议前政策预期或逐步升温，12月中下旬"春躁"可能提前启 动，均衡配置成长和周期，中期视角下大金融和部分高性价比消费或仍是中国资产重估的底仓选择。 核心观点 资金观察：配置型资金有回暖迹象，保险风险因子下调或带来增量 近期资金面环境有所改善：1）交易型资金边际放缓，两融余额小幅回升，融资买入额及占成交额比重 回落；私募备案数量放缓至178个，但11月环比提速，且产品发行和建仓有滞后性；2）配置型资金有回 暖迹象，新成立偏股型基金份额小幅回落，但估算普通股票型、偏股混合型基金仓位环比回升；美国 ADP就业数据强化12月降息预期，EPFR统计的主动外资净流出规模收窄；ETF近一周转为净申购，11 月底以来新 ...

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's China Credit 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - **China Credit Market**: The report emphasizes a selective approach to investing in China credits, highlighting a spectrum of risk from high-quality TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) companies to solid SOEs (State-Owned Enterprises) and struggling property firms [1][5][10]. Core Insights Economic Outlook - **2025 Growth**: The Chinese economy is projected to grow approximately 5% year-on-year in 2025, supported by strong exports and fiscal expansion despite high U.S. tariffs [5][10]. - **2026 Forecast**: A slowdown to 4.4% growth is anticipated in 2026 due to weaker exports and consumption, with real estate investment expected to contract by 10% [5][11]. China TMT Sector - **Top Picks**: J.P. Morgan recommends Alibaba '35s/'54s and Weibo '30s as top picks due to their solid balance sheets and improving fundamentals [1][5][66]. - **Investment Cycle**: TMT companies are in a heavy investment cycle focusing on AI and new initiatives like food delivery, with Alibaba aggressively expanding its market share [29][30]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Intense competition in food delivery is noted, particularly with Alibaba's expansion impacting Meituan's profitability [30][68]. China SOE Sector - **Defensive Exposure**: China National Chemical is recommended for defensive exposure, with strong demand expected to absorb any potential spread widening from U.S. sanctions [5][66]. - **Spread Compression**: SOE credits have seen significant spread compression, with the JACI China single-A Corporate Index tightening to a 10-year low [78][79]. China Property Sector - **Cautious Sentiment**: The property market remains fragile, with Vanke's bond extension raising concerns. Longfor is the only company rated as Overweight due to its solid balance sheet and transformation to a rental model [1][5][66]. - **Market Risks**: Investor sentiment is expected to remain weak, and banks may tighten funding to private developers [5][66]. Additional Important Insights - **Technical Support**: The report notes that technical factors are supportive of China credits, with limited supply expected to continue into 2026 [5][15]. - **Valuation Trends**: China credits have experienced strong compression, with the JACI China IG Corp Index tightening significantly over the past year [15][16]. - **Funding Strategies**: TMT companies are exploring alternative funding channels, including exchangeable bonds and CNH bonds, to leverage lower costs and increased demand [44][66]. Conclusion - **Investment Strategy**: The report advocates for a selective investment strategy in China credits, focusing on high-quality TMT names and defensive SOEs while remaining cautious in the property sector due to ongoing risks and market fragility [1][5][66].

春季躁动的 10 问 10 答 20251207 摘要 年底前，受考核和漂移回归需求影响，投资者趋于谨慎，市场成交量低 迷，政治局会议和中央经济工作会议能否带来强力催化剂存在不确定性。 历史数据显示，春节前两周左右通常开启一轮趋势性上涨，涨幅超 10%，今年春季躁动或为上涨中继型，指数仍有 10%以上上涨空间。 春季躁动行情启动时间受市场情绪和催化因素影响，若 12 月出现海外 降息问题解决或国内政策积极定调等强力催化，行情可能提前启动。 春季躁动期间，小盘股及科技板块表现突出，TMT 板块（计算机、电子、 通信）胜率高、弹性大，机械、化工、军工板块胜率相近但弹性稍弱。 节前防御性策略偏多，节后上行趋势更明确，春季躁动期间应重点关注 科技和高端制造领域。 长期持仓者可关注具备全球竞争优势的传统行业龙头企业，即"奔马资 产"，受益于外需上行和国内制造业政策支持，目前估值较低。 年底窗口期可关注低拥挤度标的，以及险资开门红增量带来的质量红利 和周期股，全年看好受益于外需提升及"十五五"规划重点任务的奔马 资产组合。 Q&A 目前市场对明年（2026 年）牛市的预期如何？短期内有哪些因素可能影响市 场表现？ 春季躁 ...