Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The USDA has raised the global corn inventory forecast to 2.9275 billion tons, higher than last month's forecast of 2.8898 billion tons and analysts' previous expectations of 2.8919 billion tons. The intensifying conflict between the US and Iran has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, boosting freight rates and international corn market prices. The increase in import prices has also had a positive impact on the domestic market [3]. - In the domestic market, the temperature in the Northeast production area has risen, increasing the storage pressure of damp grain. The pace of grain sales at the grass - roots level has gradually accelerated, and more grain sources have been transferred to the trading sector. Due to the increase in oil prices driving up freight rates and high acquisition costs, it has become more difficult to transport Northeast grain outside. Deep - processing enterprises' inventories are continuously being consumed, and they are actively replenishing stocks, but the scope of price increases has narrowed [3]. - In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the quality of local corn varies significantly. As corn starch enterprises gradually resume production after the festival, the operating rate of the corn starch industry has gradually increased, increasing supply - side pressure. However, the increase in the operating rate is relatively slow, downstream demand has improved, the downstream提货 volume has increased, and industry inventory has slightly decreased. As of March 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 120.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.00 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.17%. The starch market has shown a relatively strong and volatile trend recently, supported by the strength of corn [3]. - The spread between local wheat and corn has widened to around 100 yuan/ton, and some feed enterprises have started to purchase wheat. It is rumored that the weekly wheat auction volume will increase from 300,000 tons to 500,000 tons next week, and feed enterprises are allowed to participate, which may affect the market's bullish sentiment. The corn futures price is oscillating at a high level, and short - term participation is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract): 2396 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2723 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn monthly spread (5 - 9): - 19 yuan/ton, unchanged; corn starch monthly spread (5 - 7): 0 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract): 1,411,150 lots, up 26,862 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 250,426 lots, down 6,568 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn: - 268,733 lots, down 18,165 lots; net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn starch: - 15,884 lots, down 1,946 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn: 76,073 lots, up 950 lots; registered warehouse receipts for corn starch: 6,560 lots, unchanged [2]. - CS - C spread of the main contract: 319 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 460.5 cents/bushel, up 6.75 cents/bushel; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly): 1,617,461 contracts, down 38,674 contracts [2]. - Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn: 90,059 contracts, compared with 81,231 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2440.39 yuan/ton, up 0.98 yuan/ton; ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun: 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port: 2420 yuan/ton, unchanged; ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang: 2980 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - CIF price of imported corn: 2037.12 yuan/ton, up 35.82 yuan/ton; ex - factory price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - International freight of imported corn: 58 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton [2]. - Basis of the main corn contract: 44.39 yuan/ton, down 0.02 yuan/ton; basis of the main corn starch contract: 82 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton [2]. - Spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly): 490 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; spread between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly): 657 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton [2]. - Spread between corn starch and 30 - powder: - 97 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Forecasted annual corn production in the US: 432.34 million tons, up 6.81 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in the US: 36.93 million hectares, up 0.49 million hectares [2]. - Forecasted annual corn production in Brazil: 131 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil: 22.6 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - Forecasted annual corn production in Argentina: 53 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina: 7.5 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - Forecasted annual corn production in China: 301.24 million tons, up 6.24 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in China: 44.96 million hectares, up 0.66 million hectares [2]. - Forecasted annual corn production in Ukraine: 29 million tons, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory at southern ports (weekly): 89.2 million tons, up 11.6 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 343.7 million tons, down 41.5 million tons [2]. - Corn inventory at northern ports (weekly): 200 million tons, down 21 million tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 120.9 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. - Monthly import volume of corn: 80 million tons, up 24 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 16,740 tons, down 200 tons [2]. - Monthly output of feed: 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Inventory days of sample feed corn (weekly): 30.25 days, down 1.04 days [2]. - Deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 121.95 million tons, up 9.46 million tons [2]. - Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 54.08%, down 0.38 percentage points; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 55.73%, up 1.21 percentage points [2]. - Corn starch processing profit in Shandong: 22 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton; corn starch processing profit in Hebei: 114 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton; corn starch processing profit in Jilin: 14 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 7.21%, up 0.07 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 7.45%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn: 14.81%, up 0.95 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn: 13.86%, down 2.45 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) released a global supply - demand briefing showing that the global grain production forecast for 2025 reached a record 3.029 billion tons, higher than last month's forecast of 3.023 billion tons and a 5.6% increase from the previous year [2]. - Bunge Global SA said that the Middle East war is reshaping the agricultural product market in a "price + logistics" dual - mode. On the one hand, US and global farmers are facing the pressure of soaring oil and fertilizer prices and shipping disruptions; on the other hand, the rise in grain and oilseed prices has brought sales opportunities for US and South American farmers [2]. Key Points of Concern - The mysteel weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory data on Thursday and Friday [3]. - The increase in the weekly wheat auction volume from 300,000 tons to 500,000 tons next week, allowing feed enterprises to participate, which may affect the market's bullish sentiment [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The manganese - silicon industry has low operating rates, supply contraction, a slight recovery in demand, and inventory reduction. Although the high inventory and slow recovery of downstream demand put pressure on the fundamentals, the strong support from manganese ore and continuous geopolitical disturbances are expected to keep the futures price fluctuating with a slight upward trend [2]. - The silicon - iron industry's operating rate continues to decline, demand shows a slight recovery, and social inventory has dropped to a low level in the same period in recent years. With stable costs and support from macro - sentiment and geopolitical factors, it is expected to operate with a slight upward trend despite the relatively loose supply - demand situation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (manganese - silicon) main contract closing price is 6,162.00 yuan/ton, up 46.00 yuan; SF (silicon - iron) main contract closing price is 5,922.00 yuan/ton, up 38.00 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract positions are 593,708.00 hands, down 11,524.00 hands; SF futures contract positions are 404,162.00 hands, down 3,467.00 hands [2]. - Manganese - silicon's top 20 net positions are - 71,016.00 hands, up 3,305.00 hands; silicon - iron's top 20 net positions are - 24,273.00 hands, up 1,531.00 hands [2]. - SM 7 - 5 month contract spread is 28.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; SF 7 - 5 month contract spread is 124.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts are 55,009.00 sheets, up 4,779.00 sheets; SF warehouse receipts are 7,770.00 sheets, up 320.00 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,850.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,900.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,950.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,600.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,450.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,580.00 yuan/ton, up 130.00 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average is 5,809.00 yuan/ton, up 188.78 yuan; SF main contract basis is - 342.00 yuan/ton, up 92.00 yuan; SM main contract basis is - 312.00 yuan/ton, down 46.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African high - iron manganese ore average price at Tianjin Port is 33.95 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; South African semi - carbonate manganese ore average price at Tianjin Port is 39.15 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.20 yuan [2]. - Silica (98% in the northwest) is 2,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Lan charcoal (medium - sized in Shenmu) is 730.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke is 1,110.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory is 472.80 million tons, down 22.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate is 35.70%, up 0.08%; silicon - iron enterprise operating rate is 26.55%, down 1.77% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply is 195,860.00 tons, down 1,575.00 tons; silicon - iron supply is 96,500.00 tons, down 2,100.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory is 387,300.00 tons, down 11,000.00 tons; silicon - iron manufacturer inventory is 66,280.00 tons, down 4,120.00 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Manganese - silicon inventory days of national steel mills is 18.57 days, up 1.09 days; silicon - iron inventory days of national steel mills is 18.72 days, up 1.20 days [2]. - Manganese - silicon demand of five major steel types is 111,169.00 tons, up 943.00 tons; silicon - iron demand of five major steel types is 17,809.40 tons, up 303.60 tons [2]. - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 77.71%, down 2.51%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.32%, down 2.13% [2]. - Crude steel production is 6,817.74 million tons, down 169.36 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On March 12, the silicon - manganese market was running strongly. The mainstream steel procurement was quantified yesterday, but the price has not been inquired yet. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price in Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan, and in Tianjin is 5,950 yuan [2]. - Fugu Jinwantong silicon - iron enterprise plans to overhaul a 40,500 - kVA submerged arc furnace, affecting the daily output by 100 tons, and the overhaul time is about one month [2]. - Iranian President Pezeshkian said on social media on the 11th that the "only way" to end the war initiated by the United States and Israel is to recognize Iran's legitimate rights, pay compensation, and the international community provide firm guarantees to prevent Iran from being "invaded again" [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ICE rapeseed futures rose on March 11 due to the rebound of crude oil prices after a sharp drop on Tuesday. The most active May rapeseed contract rose 13.20 Canadian dollars, settling at 733.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The market expects a breakthrough in Sino - US negotiations. The soaring crude oil prices due to the escalation of geopolitical situations will boost the demand for soybean oil through the US soybean biofuel policy. The strong soybean crushing in the US supports the rise of the US soybean market [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. It is currently the off - season for aquatic product demand, and the demand for rapeseed meal is mainly rigid. However, the adjustment of anti - discrimination measures for Canadian rapeseed meal and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed are in line with market expectations, with limited overall impact. The rapeseed meal continued to rise, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the rise in the international soybean market boosts rapeseed oil. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict leads to a sharp rise in international oil prices, promoting the expected demand for vegetable oil in biodiesel. The rise in the peripheral oil market supports the domestic market. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is settled, and the import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding far - month supply pressure, but the market has already anticipated this, with limited impact on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9769 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2492 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 731.8 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 6199 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 102 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 22 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil was 244,974 lots, down 8696 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal was 606,359 lots, down 45,781 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil was - 14,396 lots, down 2196 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal was - 98,903 lots, up 8939 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil was 1125 sheets, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal was 2311 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2660 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,435 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed was 5445.59 yuan/ton, up 50.16 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio was 3.92, down 0.03. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 632 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 168 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8990 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1570 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9780 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 880 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecast value of rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, unchanged; the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed was 8%, up 4.8 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.6 million tons, down 0.4 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.5 million tons, up 0.85 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 25.55 million tons, down 0.55 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 8.05 million tons, down 1.24 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0 million tons, down 0.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 28.3 million tons, down 1.5 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was - 0.18 million tons, down 0.18 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 0.54 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 28.27%, up 5.62 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 28.28%, up 5.63 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 19.98%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 19.9%, down 4.96 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 18.78%, up 2.04 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.53%, up 1.18 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 19.21%, down 0.06 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 20.16%, up 0.02 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On March 11, ICE rapeseed futures rose as crude oil prices rebounded after a sharp drop on Tuesday. The most active May rapeseed contract rose 13.20 Canadian dollars, settling at 733.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The market expects a breakthrough in Sino - US negotiations. The soaring crude oil prices due to the escalation of geopolitical situations will boost the demand for soybean oil through the US soybean biofuel policy. The strong soybean crushing in the US supports the rise of the US soybean market [2]. - The Canadian Bureau of Statistics survey shows that the total intended planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 will increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the average expectation of 22.3 million acres among traders. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture said that the rapeseed production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year [2]. - The Indonesian Minister of Energy said that the country is accelerating the road test of B50 biodiesel to prevent the impact of the Middle East conflict on crude oil supply [2].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11130 | -40 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 193654 | 6674 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 1133 | -7 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -56893 | -327 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 10100 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 9700 | 0 | | | 生猪价 广东 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market is temporarily stable, with a loose supply pattern for coking coal and coke remaining unchanged. The demand is weak due to the impact of the Two Sessions, but geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt the sentiment of the resource sector. It is expected that the futures prices will fluctuate widely. For coking coal, the supply side shows that the start - up of coking enterprises is stable, the coke inventory is continuously accumulating, and the profit per ton of coke turns positive; the demand side is affected by production restrictions, with low start - up of steel mills and low molten iron output. For coke, the supply - demand situation is loose, and in the short term, it is affected by geopolitical sentiment [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1153 yuan/ton, up 8.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1727 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 582,187 lots, down 11,140 lots; J futures contract open interest: 41,920 lots, up 740 lots [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 65,689 lots, up 2,647 lots; net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts: - 3,473 lots, down 179 lots [2]. - JM 9 - 5 month contract spread: 101.50 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; J 9 - 5 month contract spread: 74.50 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 800 pieces, up 200 pieces; coke warehouse receipts: 1,340 pieces, up 30 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu: 1,046 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,665 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian main coking coal forward spot: 167.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port: 1,590 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port: 1,610 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi: 1,406 yuan/ton, up 19.00 yuan; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1,280 yuan/ton [2]. - JM main contract basis: 152.00 yuan/ton, down 8.50 yuan; J main contract basis: - 62.00 yuan, down 9.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Fine coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 23.10 million tons, up 3.20 million tons; fine coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 313.60 million tons, up 25.10 million tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 31.00%, up 4.00%; raw coal output: 43,703.50 million tons, up 1,024.20 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 3,094.27 million tons, down 2,765.73 million tons; daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 193.60 million tons, up 10.80 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports: 485.74 million tons, down 8.70 million tons; total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 796.15 million tons, down 33.31 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide: 775.64 million tons, down 16.82 million tons; coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide: 671.26 million tons, down 3.85 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.41 days, down 0.24 days; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills: 12.53 days, up 0.12 days [2]. - Coking coal imports: 1,376.98 million tons, up 303.87 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 100.00 million tons, up 28.00 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal supply: 5,478.50 million tons, up 238.97 million tons; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 72.29%, down 0.54% [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants: 17.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan; coke output: 4,274.30 million tons, up 104.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills nationwide: 77.71%, down 2.51%; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 85.32%, down 2.13% [2]. - Crude steel output: 6,817.74 million tons, down 169.36 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to Mysteel, the verified capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 87.2%, a week - on - week increase of 4.8%. The daily average raw coal output was 193.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.8 million tons, the raw coal inventory was 544.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.8 million tons, the daily average fine coal output was 77.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 million tons, and the fine coal inventory was 277.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.6 million tons [2]. - According to The Times of Israel website on the 11th, the Israeli Defense Forces' Home Front Command said that due to the attacks by Iran and Hezbollah, the current civil defense restrictions in Israel will last at least until the 14th [2]. - Mysteel reported that Iranian President Pezeshkian posted on social media on the 11th that the "only way" to end the war initiated by the United States and Israel is to recognize Iran's legitimate rights, pay compensation, and the international community provide firm guarantees to prevent Iran from being "invaded again" [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of methanol has decreased significantly, leading to a de - stocking channel. The short - term arrival of foreign vessels remains at a low level. Attention should be paid to the changes in the expected export conversion and the demand of downstream coastal industries under high - price conditions. It is expected that the methanol inventory at ports may continue to decline next week. The MTO industry's operating rate has decreased slightly and is expected to remain stable in the short term. The short - term price of methanol is expected to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2726 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 68 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 156 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan. The trading volume is 207,910 tons less [3] - The position of the main methanol contract is 570,574 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 15,634 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 40,166 lots [3] - The number of warehouse receipts is 10,333, with a week - on - week increase of 146 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2590 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan. The price in Inner Mongolia is 2085 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 155 yuan [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 505 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 225 yuan. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 68 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 39 yuan [3] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 324 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 US dollars. The CFR price in Southeast Asia is 455.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50.5 US dollars [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 368 euros/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2 euros. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 131.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35.5 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.23 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.17 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 972,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 95,600 tons. The inventory at South China ports is 340,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 35,100 tons [3] - The import profit of methanol is - 51.31 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 39.53 yuan. The import volume in the current month is 1.734 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 316,400 tons [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 523,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 29,300 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.65%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.15 percentage points [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 28.72%, with a week - on - week increase of 14.02 percentage points. The operating rate of dimethyl ether is 2.85%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48 percentage points [3] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 84.11%, remaining unchanged. The operating rate of MTBE is 67.72%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points [3] - The operating rate of olefins is 84.08%, remaining unchanged. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 675 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 98 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 71.6%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23 percentage points. The 40 - day historical volatility is 53.14%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 56.75%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.17 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 56.77%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.29 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of March 11, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 523,100 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons from the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.30%. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 265,300 tons, a decrease of 29,800 tons from the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.10% [3] - As of March 11, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.3128 million tons, a decrease of 130,700 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 95,600 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 35,100 tons. The inventory at methanol ports decreased significantly this week, and the unloading of visible foreign vessels during the period was only 91,500 tons [3] - Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol is more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall output. The inventory of inland enterprises decreased this week, and the inventory at ports also decreased significantly. The pick - up was good due to the demand along the Yangtze River, but the arrival of imported vessels was less [3] - As of March 12, the utilization rate of production capacity of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 82.50%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.82%. The second - phase plant of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei had a short - term shutdown, and the operating rate of the MTO industry decreased [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures closed lower on Wednesday, hitting a one - week high during the session, affected by the bearish data in the USDA monthly supply - demand report. The ICE May cotton futures contract fell 0.13 cents, or 0.20%, to settle at 65.17 cents per pound. In the domestic market, on the supply side, with a large amount of cotton arriving at ports previously, port inventory has increased significantly, increasing supply - side pressure. As of March 5th, the inventory at major ports for imported cotton was 55.65 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42%. On the consumption side, downstream consumption is gradually recovering. The market is mainly focused on delivering previous orders, with limited new orders. Finished - product inventory has relatively decreased, resulting in limited pressure. Currently in the "Golden March and Silver April" traditional consumption peak season, the short - term upward trend of cotton prices is expected to continue [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 15,545 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net position: - 209,957 lots, down 7,576 lots; main contract holding volume of cotton: 741,308 lots, down 2,219 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 12,325 pieces, up 173 pieces. - Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 21,735 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net position: - 1,466 lots, down 205 lots; main contract holding volume of cotton yarn: 14,724 lots, down 248 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 219 pieces, up 105 pieces [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Chinese cotton price index (CCIndex: 3128B): 16,848 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; Chinese yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 22,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Chinese imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff): 12,647 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; Chinese imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale duty): 13,756 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. - Arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,995 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 23,485 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons. - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,152 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 861,000 tons, up 13,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume of cotton: 180,000 tons, up 60,000 tons; import volume of cotton yarn: 170,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. - Import profit of cotton: 3,092 yuan/ton, up 198 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 5.7887 million tons, up 4,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn: 21.71 days, down 3.41 days; inventory days of grey cloth: 33.13 days, down 0.63 days. - Monthly output of cloth: 3.01 billion meters, up 200 million meters; monthly output of yarn: 2.132 million tons, up 93,000 tons. - Monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 134.12412 million US dollars, up 18.18726 million US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 125.79603 million US dollars, up 3.0387 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton: 22.65%, up 3.22 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton: 22.65%, up 3.22 percentage points. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 14.75%, up 0.43 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 13.91%, up 0.15 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to customs data, from January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing exports reached 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. Among them, textile exports were 25.57 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%, and clothing exports were 24.87 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.8% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has led to an increase in crude oil prices, which suppresses risk assets. However, the news of the International Energy Agency's proposed release of the largest - ever oil reserves indicates that the increase in crude oil prices will be more restrained compared to the previous sharp rise, and the suppression of risk assets will also be relatively smaller [2]. - A - shares were active in sectors such as new energy due to the increase in AI computing power demand and rising energy prices. The entry of the national team suggests that short - term market risks are low. The market is expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to buy low and sell high [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Information - Trump said there might be conditional negotiations with Iran, but there are different stances within Iran. The Iranian foreign minister said the new supreme leader would not negotiate with the US, while the vice - president said they had not given up on resolving the issue through negotiation [4]. - The Iranian president put forward three necessary conditions to end the war: recognition of Iran's legitimate rights, payment of war compensation, and firm guarantees from the international community to prevent future aggression [4]. - Iran claims it can block the Strait of Hormuz, will implement "serial strikes" instead of just reciprocal counter - attacks, and the US military has warned Iranian civilians to stay away from port facilities in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - Three ships were attacked in the Gulf waters on Wednesday, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said its forces fired at non - compliant ships in the Gulf region [4]. - The FBI warned that Iran plans to launch a drone raid on California from near the US coast [5]. - The IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves, the largest - ever scale [6]. - The central bank will deepen the integration of industry and technology and promote the application of artificial intelligence in the financial field in a safe and orderly manner [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's platform issued "six do's and six don'ts" suggestions to prevent the security risks of the OpenClaw open - source intelligent body [7]. - The Supercomputing Internet will distribute 10 million Tokens for free to each OpenClaw user [8]. - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is in communication with relevant parties including the conflict parties [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other information of various futures contracts such as the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [11]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Position**: It shows the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading amount, trading amount changes, position, position changes, and other data of different futures contracts, as well as the net position and its changes of the top 20 member institutions [12]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: Data on the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volume, and price - to - earnings ratios of various indexes and sectors are presented, including the Wande All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc. [32]. - **Market Style Impact**: The impact of different market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, stability) on the price changes of the Shanghai 50, Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes is analyzed [33][34][35]. - **Valuation and Market Indicators**: Information on the valuation and historical quantiles of important indexes and Shenwan sectors, as well as market indicators such as weekly average trading volume, weekly average turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, and index trading volume changes, is provided [36][39][42]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - **Central Bank Operations and Interest Rates**: The report shows the central bank's open - market operations (currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection) and the Shibor interest rate levels [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Pay attention to the tail - risk of the Iran situation as it significantly impacts the energy and shipping sectors, and rising oil prices may lead to inflation and economic recession concerns [1] - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index recovers after the sessions. The US economic data shows some fluctuations, and the Middle - East conflict may push up inflation [2] - In the short - term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on stock index, precious metals, and some chemical products [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Iran - US - Israel conflict has exceeded the initial expected duration, with significant impacts on energy, production, and supply chains in the Middle - East. The tail - risk has increased sharply, mainly affecting crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors. Rising oil prices have a driving effect on oil - chemical and oilseed sectors and may cause inflation and economic recession concerns [1] - The 2026 Government Work Report sets the economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. The general public budget expenditure will reach 30 trillion yuan for the first time. An ultra - long - term special treasury bond of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued [2] - During the Two Sessions, the stock market has some pressure, and the commodity market pressure is obvious. After the sessions, the stock index strengthens, especially the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2] - The US 2025 Q4 GDP growth rate was lower than expected, and the February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased. The February CPI and core CPI were in line with expectations, but the Middle - East conflict may push up inflation in the short - term [2] - China's January social financing had a good start. The February official manufacturing PMI was 49, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5. The February CPI increased to 1.3%, core CPI increased by 1.8%, and PPI decline narrowed to 0.9%. The February export and import growth rates in US dollars returned to double - digits [2] Commodity Analysis - The non - ferrous metal, precious metal sectors are inversely related to oil prices. The increase in inflation leads to a decrease in interest - rate cut expectations and an increase in recession risks [3] - The IEA has approved the largest - scale emergency oil reserve release plan, and countries such as Japan and Germany will release oil reserves. The US EIA crude oil inventory increased more than expected last week [3][6] - Oil prices are driven by geopolitical factors, and there is a "sell - the - fact" risk. Rising oil prices drive oil - chemical products and have an overflow effect on oilseeds in the agricultural sector. The black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [3] Strategy - Go long on stock index, precious metals, and some chemical products in commodity and stock index futures [4] News - Iran reaffirmed its absolute jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz and warned that it can block the strait [6] - Israel does not seek an "endless war" with Iran and will coordinate with the US to decide when to end the military action [6] - The US February core inflation slowed down, but the Middle - East conflict may push up inflation, and the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer time [6] - The European Central Bank may raise interest rates earlier than expected due to the Iran conflict and inflation [6] - The IEA approved the release of 400 million barrels of oil, and Japan and Germany will release oil reserves [6] - The US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3.82 million barrels last week, more than expected [6]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The night session of the previous day saw the main contracts of coking coal and coke in a volatile trend, with the total position of coking coal remaining basically unchanged compared to the previous period. Last week, coking coal production continued to rebound, supply increased, and iron - water production decreased significantly due to environmental protection restrictions in many areas. The rigid demand for coking coal weakened, with mine clean - coal inventory accumulating and downstream coking coal inventory decreasing. It is expected that with the progress of resuming work and production, iron - water production will significantly rebound, driving the improvement of rigid demand for coking coal and coke, and supporting coal prices. Geopolitical uncertainties can also push up the valuation of energy - related commodities. Future focus should be on iron - water production trends, mine operation conditions, and geopolitical trends [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Futures Market Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: For coking coal, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 1461.5, 1144.5, and 1247.5 respectively, with increases of 1.70%, 2.05%, and 2.38% compared to the previous two days. For coke, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 1887.5, 1718.0, and 1793.5 respectively, with increases of 2.03%, 2.23%, and 2.11% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of coking coal contracts in January, May, and September were 2717, 679845, and 63196 respectively, and the open interests were 14901, 407283, and 110769 respectively. For coke, the trading volumes in January, May, and September were 54, 15503, and 1042 respectively, and the open interests were 1518, 32488, and 3966 respectively. The changes in open interests were 28, - 17889, 1977 for coking coal and 26, - 510, 46 for coke [1]. - **Spreads**: For coking coal, the spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were 240, - 79.5, and - 160.5 respectively, with changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5. For coke, the spreads were 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83 respectively, with changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 [1]. Spot Market Data - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal at the port for self - pick - up, low - sulfur coking coal at the Linfen factory - gate, low - sulfur fat coal at the Taiyuan rail - side, Tangshan Grade 1 coke at the factory - gate, Jinzhong Quasi - Grade 1 coke at the factory - gate, and Rizhao Port Quasi - Grade 1 coke at the warehouse - exit were 1175, 1450, 1373, 1800, 1280, and 1470 respectively. The price of low - sulfur coking coal at the Linfen factory - gate decreased by 10, while others remained unchanged [1]. Automobile Industry Data - In February 2026, automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 31.7% and 23.1% and year - on - year decreases of 20.5% and 15.2%. Automobile exports were 0.672 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 52.4% [1].