期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格继续企稳，iFind 数据显示，截至 2 月 5 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动 力煤报价 692 元/吨，周环比小幅上涨 1 元/吨。当前正处于迎峰度冬关键时期，全国电厂煤炭日 耗高企，带动产业链中下游库存去化，但同时动力煤产量平稳运行，叠加市场对其中长期基本面 依然持有偏空预期，压制煤价维持低位运行。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ...

贵金属日报 2026-02-09 贵金属 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 2.82 %，报 1114.50 元/克，沪银涨 3.51 %，报 19840.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 2.03 %， 报 4988.60 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 1.06 %，报 77.53 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.22 %，美元指数报 97.61 ； 黄金方面，当前行情维持高位震荡，市场普遍定价美联储 6 月降息预期，为金价提供了核心基 本面支撑；在美国就业数据表现偏弱的背景下，上周五博斯蒂克表态称，在高通胀持续的环境 下，需等到 4-5 月数据才能给出更明确的政策信号，并暗示美联储可能需要更多依托非官方数 据来评估经济形势。同时，前期集中抛售也为场外观望资金提供了逢低布局的机会，因此金价 中期趋势仍偏向震荡上行。 白银方面，当前 COMEX 白银总库存、注册仓单与非注册仓单同步下行，表明交易所库存变动并 非仓单内部结构转换，而是由现货实质性流出、产业需求与投资端实物吸纳共同驱动的净去库， 反映全球可交割白银供给持续偏紧。前期大幅下跌主要清理投机杠杆资金，当前产业盘与交割 盘占比明显提升，在全球交易所 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 9 日 | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2026/2/9 | 基于基本面研判 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | | | | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 | 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 焦炭 | 原木 | 沥青 | | 研究咨询电话： | 焦煤 | 烧碱 | 沪深300股指期货 | 橡胶 | 原油 | 上证50股指期货 | 0531-81678626 | | | | 橡胶 | 多晶硅 | 苹果 | 客服电话： | 红枣 | 尿素 | 甲醇 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 工业硅 | 燃油 | 400-618-6767 | 生猪 | 碳酸锂 | | | | | | 公司网址： | PVC | 铜 | 液化石油气 | 二债 | www.ztqh.com | | | | | | ...

2026 年 2 月 9 日 关注节后预期变化 钢价震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 13 钢材月报 ⚫ 供给端：1月钢材生产呈现回升态势，但受限于钢厂整 体盈利面偏弱及淡季需求走弱，进一步增产的动力不 足。进入2月，短流程企业因春节临近而逐步减产，后 续供应增长将主要依赖高炉产能释放。然而，考虑到当 前利润空间依然有限、库存压力尚未缓解，预计整体增 产空间较为有限。 ⚫ 需求端：春节临近，钢材消费边际转弱。其中螺纹钢表 观消费量降至176万吨，工地采购以刚需为主，投机需 求几近停滞；板材表现相对坚挺，热卷表观消费量微降 至310万吨。今年贸易商普遍冬储意愿偏低，对节后需 求复苏持谨慎态度，投机囤 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2605 is weak and volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The current situation is weak, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak as the holiday approaches. The fundamentals are still weak, and steel prices in the off - season continue to be under pressure. Although there is cost support, the trend is expected to continue to be weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak and volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the current situation is weak and steel prices are under pressure [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - As the holiday approaches, spot trading tends to stagnate. The inventory of construction steel has increased significantly, and the supply - demand pattern of rebar remains weak. The weekly output of rebar has decreased month - on - month, and the supply has shrunk, but the inventory level is high, and the pressure relief is limited. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]. - The demand for rebar is weak. High - frequency demand indicators have decreased month - on - month and are at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The downstream industries have not improved, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged, which will continue to drag down steel prices [3]. - Currently, as the holiday approaches, both the supply and demand sides of rebar are weak. The fundamentals are still weak, and steel prices in the off - season continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support. It is expected that the trend will continue to be weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1] 3.2 Price Change Calculation Method - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night trading closing price; for those without night trading, the starting price is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day's daytime closing price to calculate the price change [2] 3.3 Strength and Weakness Criteria - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strongly, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong. The strong/weak concept only applies to the intraday view [3][4] 3.4 Driving Logic of Methanol Price - The most critical factor supporting the upward movement of methanol prices recently is the "hard contraction" of overseas supply. Iran, as the main import source, is in the stage of winter natural gas supply guarantee and production restriction, with most methanol plants reducing or halting production. China's methanol imports may decline significantly in January - February. Geopolitical risks are rising, which boosted the domestic methanol futures to maintain a volatile and strong trend on the night of last Friday [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 产业情绪共振，矿价偏弱运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局持续走弱，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石终端消耗低位回升，但盈利状况不佳，且钢市产 业矛盾累积，需求改善力度有限，利好效应不强。与此同时，国内港口到货量低位回升，且矿商发运 量持续增加，海外矿石供应开始企稳，而内矿供应表现 ...

金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 金融研究 2026年2月9日 星期一 市场表现：2 月 6 日，A 股四大股指下跌，其中上证指数下跌 0.25%，报收 4065.58 点；深成指下跌 0.33%，报收 13906.73 点；创业板指下跌 0.73%，报收 3236.46 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.71%，报 收 1422.41 点。市场成交 21,635 亿元，较前日减少 308 亿元。行业板块方面，石油石化(+2.55%)， 基础化工(+2.05%)，电力设备(+1.27%)涨幅居前；食品饮料(-1.86%)，国防军工(-1.66%)，社会服务 (-1.37%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,748/180/2,545。沪深两 市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 4、-190、-104、289 亿元，分别变动+319、+75、 -231、-163 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 60.77、29.01、6 与 1.66 点，基差年化收益率分别为-7.55%、 -3.56%、-1.29%与-0.55%，三年期历史分 ...

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a volatile decline, with Wind All A Index dropping by 1.49% and average daily trading volume decreasing to 2.4 billion yuan [3] - The major indices such as CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 fell by 2.46%, 2.68%, 1.33%, and 0.93% respectively, primarily due to pullbacks in the electronics and non-ferrous metals sectors [3] - There is a strong bearish sentiment in the market, indicated by a weekly decrease in financing balance by 43.2 billion yuan to 2.65 billion yuan and an increase in implied volatility for options [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Trends - The logic supporting the strength of the technology sector, particularly driven by AI, remains unchanged, contributing to improved productivity and asset returns in the equity market [3] - The cyclical themes are more sensitive to inflation indicators, suggesting that systematic opportunities may arise only after inflation metrics stabilize [3] - The recent style shift in the market is viewed as a result of declining risk appetite rather than a signal of a change in market themes [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed a strong performance driven by a decline in PMI data and the central bank's resumption of reverse repos, leading to a marginal easing of liquidity [5][19] - As of February 6, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were recorded at 1.36%, 1.56%, 1.81%, and 2.25% respectively, reflecting slight decreases from January 30 [5][19] - The government issued 4.393 billion yuan in bonds this week, with a net issuance of 1.976 billion yuan, indicating a focus on managing debt levels [20] Group 4: Local Government Economic Targets - Over 60% of local governments adjusted their GDP growth targets for the year, with many setting targets around 5%, indicating a shift towards structural adjustments rather than short-term growth [22] - In terms of retail sales growth, 15 out of 21 provinces lowered their targets, with most reductions around 1% [22] - Investment targets were also adjusted, with 13 out of 18 provinces lowering their fixed asset investment growth goals, emphasizing structural optimization over expansion [22]

期货日报记网讯（记者 杨美）中国期货业协会最新统计资料表明，以单边计算， 1月全国期货市场成交 量为9.12亿手（912,489,781手）,成交额为100.26万亿元（1,002,595.82亿元），同比分别增长65.09%和 105.14%。 其中，按照成交额统计，排名各商品期货交易所前三的品种分别为上期所的白银、黄金、铜，郑商所的 PTA、棉花、烧碱，大商所的焦煤、棕榈油、聚氯乙烯，广期所的碳酸锂、铂、工业硅；按照成交量统 计，排名各交易所前三的品种分别为上期所的白银、镍、燃料油，郑商所的PTA、玻璃、甲醇，大商所 的聚氯乙烯、豆粕、焦煤，广期所的碳酸锂、碳酸锂期权、工业硅。 中国金融期货交易所的金融期货期权成交量为3,005.31万手，占全国市场的3.29%；成交额为26.35万亿 元，占全国市场的26.28%。成交金额排名前三的品种分别是中证1000股指期货、中证500股指期货、沪 深300股指期货。 截至2026年1月底，我国共上市期货期权品种165个。 ...