交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 5 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | ن ان استرند | | 生」 生 イ | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農筋偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 烧碱 | 橡胶 | 燃油 | | | | 三十债 | 白糖 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 合成橡胶 | 二债 | 沥青 | | | | 生猪 | 棉花 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 棉纱 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 红枣 | 十债 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | 铁矿石 | 五债 | 焦炭 | | | | | 尿素 | 焦煤 | | | | | 原油 | PVC | | | | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 昨日螺纹盘面震荡偏强，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3110元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格上涨11元/ 吨，涨幅为0.35%，持仓减少0.69万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 上涨10元/吨至2930元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于3170元/吨，全国建材成交量3.61万吨。据媒体 报道，印尼今年计划将煤炭产量削减近四分之一，至约6亿吨，以提振煤价，个别矿企的减产幅度在 40%至70%之间。受此影响，煤炭相关资产出现明显上涨，对黑色系走势形成一定提振。随着春节临 近，建筑工地多数已经停工，终端需求渐趋停滞，现货市场逐步进入休市状态。目前螺纹库存尽管高于 去年同期水平，但整体看库存压力并不算大，钢厂冬储资源组织较为顺利，贸易商心态也较为平和。目 前螺纹仍处于矛盾不足，驱动也不强的局面，预计短期仍以弱势整理运行为主。 铁矿石： （柳浠，从业资格号：F03087689；交易咨询资格号：Z0019538） 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约i2605 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term outlook of "oscillation" for the black building materials industry [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the steel inventory pressure is increasing, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures prices are under pressure. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, the iron ore has high shipping and high inventory pressure, and the coal supply is disturbed, but the support for coal - coke replenishment is weakening. The glass supply is also disturbed, but the oversupply restricts the upside space of the glass and soda ash futures [1]. - Overall, the winter storage of furnace materials is coming to an end, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures prices, but there is no negative feedback expectation, and the downside space of the cost side is limited. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Inventory pressure is continuously increasing, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and post - holiday demand is uncertain. The supply and demand at present need to be verified, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [1]. Carbon Element - The growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. Domestic coal mines will gradually reduce production approaching the holiday, the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, and the fluctuation of the current sentiment remains to be observed [2]. Alloys - The supply - demand contradiction in the coal market is limited, the coal price fluctuates within a narrow range, and the power - consumption cost of ferromanganese - silicon is difficult to adjust significantly. The current market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract of ferromanganese - silicon will oscillate around the cost. The supply - demand contradiction in the coal market is not large, the coal price is expected to oscillate, and the cost adjustment of ferrosilicon is difficult to exceed expectations. The current market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is limited. However, the trading activity before the festival is low, and the driving force for the futures price to rise is insufficient. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will oscillate around the cost [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances in glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: The cost support is limited, and the futures price is under pressure. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has slightly shrunk, the resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the overall demand is seasonally weakening. The inventory pressure is increasing, and the fundamentals are gradually accumulating contradictions. It is expected to oscillate widely [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the futures and spot prices are under pressure. Overseas mine shipments have increased, the arrival at ports has weakened, and the supply side is expected to be disturbed by weather. The demand is stable, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both seasonally declining, and the price in East China has slightly increased. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [11]. - **Coke**: The spot price is stable for the time being, and the futures price follows the cost side. The supply change is limited, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory is increasing. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force is limited. The spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [14]. - **Coking Coal**: As the Spring Festival approaches, coal mines are gradually on holiday, and the futures price is strong due to event disturbances. The supply of domestic coal mines will gradually decline, the import is still at a high level, and the downstream inventory is gradually in place. The fundamentals are healthy, but the bullish driving force is limited. The spot price may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely [15][16]. - **Glass**: The supply is still disturbed, and the price oscillates upward. The supply is expected to decline in the long term, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate, and if there is no more cold - repair, the high inventory will suppress the price [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost drives the sentiment to warm up, and the production remains at a high level. The supply has slightly declined, the demand is weakening, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the oversupply pattern will intensify in the long term [17][20]. - **Ferromanganese - Silicon**: The futures price center has moved up, but there is still pressure above. The cost support is strengthened, the market trading is cooling down, the cost adjustment is small, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. It is expected to oscillate around the cost [20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The trading atmosphere is cold, and the driving force for the price to rise is insufficient. The cost support is strengthened, the cost change is small, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is at a low level. It is expected to oscillate around the cost [21].

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Precious Metals High Volatility Continues, Stock Index Trends Diverge - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20260205" [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 3. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to have limited impact on the market. The market views him as a hawkish figure, but it's difficult for him to implement the policy of shrinking the balance sheet. There are resistances for significant hawkish or dovish turns. Attention should be paid to the Iran-US situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The positive policy expectation remains the macro main - line. There is a growing expectation that policies in the first quarter will boost the economy to achieve a "good start" in the 15th Five - Year Plan. The policy environment is favorable. In January, both fiscal and monetary policies were proactive, and the economy showed overall stability with strong exports [9]. - Asset views: Emphasize the structural opportunities of portfolio allocation. Recommend over - allocating IC and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy expectation, loose liquidity, and inflation recovery expectation support the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities. Precious metals have high short - term volatility and are recommended to be observed. Non - ferrous metals are relatively advantageous, and black commodities are volatile. Crude oil has high uncertainties [9]. 4. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Market Data 4.1.1 Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - Index futures: The prices and various period - on - period changes of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures are presented. For example, the CSI 300 futures price was 4693.6, with a daily increase of 0.2%, a weekly decrease of 0.37%, etc. [2]. - Treasury bonds: Information on 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures is given, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the 2 - year treasury bond futures price was 102.398, with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2]. 4.1.2 Foreign Exchange and Interest Rates - Foreign exchange: The dollar index was 97.3872, with a daily decrease of 0.23%, and the dollar intermediate price was 6.9385, with a decrease of 68 pips [2]. - Interest rates: Data on various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank deposit - based pledge rate, 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield, 10Y US treasury bond yield, etc., and their changes are provided [2]. 4.1.3 Industry Index - The prices and various period - on - period changes of different industries are shown, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, etc. For example, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index was 5718.7165, with a daily increase of 1.39% [3]. 4.1.4 Domestic and Overseas Commodities - Domestic commodities: Information on various domestic commodities such as shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products is presented, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the gold price was 1143.37, with a daily increase of 4.39% [4]. - Overseas commodities: Data on overseas energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products are provided, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 63.9, with a daily increase of 2.83% [6]. 4.2 Viewpoints on Different Asset Classes 4.2.1 Financial Assets - Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with the trend stabilizing and style complementing gains [10]. - Stock index options are expected to be volatile, with implied volatility continuing to decline and selling options to increase income [10]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile, as they fell across the board, and factors such as the implementation of monetary policies need to be concerned [10]. 4.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be volatile, as geopolitical conflicts have eased and the "Warsh trade" suppresses liquidity expectations [10]. 4.2.3 Shipping - The container shipping to Europe line is expected to be volatile, as spot freight rates are under pressure and shipping companies are reducing prices to attract cargo before the festival [10]. 4.2.4 Black Commodities - Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and supply and demand [10]. 4.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, nickel, stainless steel, etc. are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others like zinc, lead, etc. are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply and demand, and policies [10]. 4.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply pressure, demand, and geopolitical situations. Styrene is expected to rise in a volatile manner [12]. 4.2.7 Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors. For example, cotton is expected to rise in a volatile manner, while sugar is expected to decline in a volatile manner [12].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, indicating potential investment opportunities and market dynamics. Group 1: Liquidity and Financing Environment - SPDR Gold ETF holdings are at their highest level since June 2022 [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for January 2026 is 50.27, up 6.62% month-on-month [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, down 1.60 percentage points month-on-month [4] - Current London gold spot price is $4,880 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - January high furnace capacity utilization is expected to be at the highest level for the same period in five years [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar down 0.61%, cement price index down 1.10%, rubber up 4.49%, coke up 3.65%, coking coal down 0.64%, and iron ore up 0.50% [5] - National high furnace capacity utilization, cement, and asphalt operating rates decreased by 0.04 percentage points, 0.02 percentage points, and 0.7 percentage points respectively [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide and glass prices are at low levels, with titanium dioxide price unchanged and glass price up 1.38% [6] - Titanium dioxide gross profit is -1,834 yuan per ton, while flat glass operating rate is 73.89% [6] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - January national PMI new orders index is at 49.20% [7] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel unchanged, copper up 3.50%, and aluminum up 2.11%, with corresponding gross profit changes showing improvements [7] - National semi-steel tire operating rate is 74.84%, up 0.28 percentage points [7] Group 5: Subcategories - Orientation silicon steel prices have reached the lowest level since 2018 [8] - Graphite electrode price is 19,000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1,921.48 yuan per ton, down 4.00% [8] - Electrolytic aluminum price is 24,640 yuan per ton, up 2.11%, with estimated profit of 7,389 yuan per ton (excluding tax), up 6.91% [8] - Electrolytic copper price is 104,640 yuan per ton, up 3.50% [8] - Tungsten concentrate price is 605,000 yuan per ton, up 11.42% from last week [8] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of hot-rolled to rebar is at the lowest level for the same period in five years [9] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 3.96 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 50 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 360 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 200 yuan per ton, up 33.33% from last week [10] - The price difference between medium-thick plates and rebar is 50 yuan per ton [10] Group 7: Export Chain - January China PMI new export orders are at 47.80%, down 1.2 percentage points [11] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index is 1,175.59 points this week, down 2.74% [11] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 76.90%, up 1.00 percentage points [11] - Starting January 1, 2026, China will implement export licensing management for certain steel products, which is expected to further regulate steel exports [11] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - This week, the CSI 300 index increased by 0.08%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being oil and petrochemicals, up 7.95% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB of the two markets is 32.46% and 100.00% respectively [12] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the two markets is currently 0.52, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82, reached in August 2017 [12]

Group 1 - The board of directors of Shandong Steel Co., Ltd. held its 21st meeting of the 8th session, where a resolution was passed regarding the integration and reform of the Energy Environmental Department and the Energy Power Plant [1][2] - The decision aims to enhance the company's professional management level and operational efficiency by establishing a unified control model for "big energy" and achieving integrated management of the energy system [1] - The integration will consolidate all functions of the Energy Environmental Department and the Energy Power Plant into a newly formed Energy Environmental Department, while the Energy Power Plant will be dissolved [1] Group 2 - The meeting was conducted in compliance with relevant laws, regulations, and the company's articles of association [2] - Notification of the meeting was sent out on February 2, 2026, via email and direct delivery [2] - The meeting took place on February 4, 2026, and was attended by all 9 directors [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Industry Growth - In 2025, the manufacturing sector in the province is expected to achieve a sales revenue growth of 3.8% year-on-year, surpassing the overall provincial sales growth by 2 percentage points [1] - The manufacturing sales scale remains the largest in the country, accounting for 44.4% of the total provincial sales, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous year [1] Group 2: Intelligent Upgrading - The procurement of intelligent equipment by manufacturing enterprises is projected to increase by 5.8% year-on-year in 2025, indicating a faster pace of intelligent transformation and digitalization [2] - Sales revenue for industrial robots and special operation robots is expected to grow by 19.7% and 28.7% year-on-year, respectively [2] Group 3: Green Transformation - In 2025, the sales revenue of high-energy-consuming manufacturing industries is expected to decrease by 1.4 percentage points, reflecting an optimization of the industrial structure [3] - The sales revenue of the lithium-ion battery manufacturing industry is projected to grow by 22.6% year-on-year, highlighting the rapid development of related new energy industries [3] Group 4: Environmental Investment - Jiangsu Longjiang Steel Co., Ltd. has increased its green production line renovation investment by 220% year-on-year, achieving a water recycling rate of 99.5% [4] - XuGong Fudi Battery Technology Co., Ltd. anticipates a revenue of approximately 900 million yuan in 2025, representing an 800% year-on-year increase, driven by innovation and technology empowerment [4] Group 5: Digital Integration - The manufacturing sector's procurement of digital technology is expected to grow by 10.3% year-on-year in 2025, with an acceleration of 4.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [5] - Companies are increasingly focusing on integrating advanced technologies such as AI and industrial internet to enhance their core competitiveness and drive smart manufacturing [5]

（来源：东北新闻网） 2月4日，由省工业和信息化厅、中国工商银行辽宁省分行举办的重点行业稳增长实施方案专题解读会在沈阳举行。会议围绕国家出台的稳增长系列政策， 重点解读汽车、机械、电力装备、电子信息、石化化工、钢铁、轻工等行业政策。全省12家金融机构、21个新型工业化院、30个重点县区、近50户企业、 33个行业协会共300余人参加会议。 会议现场 本次会议邀请了工业和信息化部相关司局及事业单位负责同志，围绕稳增长系列政策，结合辽宁产业结构特点与现实困境，就政策内涵、落实路径、行业 预期及企业纾困等方面进行深度讲解与现场指导。同时深化政银企协同，发挥金融支撑作用，精准把握政策导向，力求为行业、企业提供金融支持。 以汽车行业为例，会议对国家稳增长工作方案中着力扩大国内消费、提升供给质量、优化发展环境、深化国际合作等举措进行深入解读，并结合我省产业 实际提出具体发展建议。与会专家认为，辽宁应统筹优化全省产能，强化整车与零部件企业协同发展，推动整车企业持续上规模、增效益；依托我省科 教、场景、产业、区位及数据资源等优势，加强低温高寒环境下的动力电池、固态电池、自动驾驶等关键技术攻关与示范应用，拓展公交、物流、扫雪等 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月制造业 PMI 环比下降，煤炭价格上涨 ——行业景气观察（0204） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在消费服务和信息技术领域。上游资源品中，煤炭、 石油价格上涨；中游制造领域，新能源产业链价格多数下跌，1 月重卡销量三个 月滚动同比增幅收窄。信息技术中，DDR4 价格边际下行，12 月北美 PCB 订单 量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，鸡肉价格、飞天茅台批价上行。春 节临近生产季节性放缓，年末冲刺透支部分需求，拖累 1 月制造业 PMI 环比下 行。推荐景气较高或有改善的煤炭、石油石化、中药、白酒、电力、半导体等。 ❑【本周关注】春节临近生产季节性放缓，去年年末冲刺透支了部分需求，拖累 1 月 制造业 PMI 环比下行，寒潮拖累施工进度，建筑业景气明显下滑，服务业也有放 缓。结构上特征主要有：1）春节临近生产季节性放缓，叠加原材料价格上涨，采 购量明显下滑，或因去年年末冲刺影响，需求偏弱，生产经营预期下行，库存升至 同期较高水平；2）地缘政治风险推升油价和贵金属价格，抬高成本，叠加反内卷 背景下部分行业供给受限，购进价格和出厂价格指数均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry in China is facing unprecedented environmental pressure due to high energy consumption and emissions, prompting a systemic construction of green and low-carbon development policies under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Policy and Regulatory Framework - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has established a clear direction for the steel industry's green transformation and high-quality development, with stringent control requirements and clear implementation paths [1] - The carbon emission control will focus on intensity control, supplemented by total volume control, pushing enterprises to optimize production processes and adjust energy structures [2][3] Group 2: Investment Trends - Environmental governance investment by steel enterprises has increased significantly, with a total investment of 584.31 billion yuan, a growth of 58.45% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [4] - The investment in waste gas treatment has increased by 499.07 billion yuan, a growth of 49.92%, indicating a strong response to environmental policies [4] Group 3: Environmental Tax and Subsidies - The intensity of environmental protection tax payments by steel enterprises has gradually increased, while the total amount of environmental protection subsidies received has reached 45.65 billion yuan, 2.7 times that of the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [5] Group 4: Project Implementation and Results - The number of major environmental governance projects has increased to 1,576, a growth of 64.0% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, with total investment reaching 5.279 billion yuan, a growth of 45.89% [6] - The North China region completed 252 projects with an investment of 341.59 billion yuan, while the Northeast region completed 220 projects with an investment of 174.45 billion yuan, showing significant regional investment variations [6][7] Group 5: Future Directions and Recommendations - Recommendations for promoting green low-carbon development include differentiated support policies for environmental funds, optimization of the environmental tax and subsidy linkage mechanism, and the establishment of a cross-regional environmental cost-sharing mechanism [8] - The establishment of an environmental blacklist system for non-compliant enterprises and the promotion of shared and intelligent upgrades of environmental facilities are also suggested [8]