Market Overview - On February 25, the domestic market saw an increase in 304 stainless steel prices by 50-100 yuan/ton, while 201 rose by 50 yuan/ton, and 430 remained stable [2][4]. - The futures price of stainless steel continued to rise slightly, driven by increases in nickel iron and nickel prices, leading to heightened bullish sentiment in the market [2][4]. Steel Mill Guidance Prices - Major steel mills provided the following guidance prices: - Taiyuan Iron and Steel: 304/2B at 17,650 yuan/ton; 304/No. 1 at 16,650 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan) [3]. - Dongfang Special Steel: 316L/No. 1 at 26,050 yuan/ton (up 300 yuan) [3]. Market Transaction Prices - In Wuxi, transaction prices for 304/2B 2.0mm from Taiyuan Iron and Steel were at 15,050 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan), while in Foshan, prices for the same material from Fujian Jiao Jin were at 14,550 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan) [5]. Raw Material Prices - On February 25, the price of nickel plates in the Yangtze River region was 145,450 yuan/ton (up 2,700 yuan), while high-carbon ferrochrome in Sichuan remained stable at 8,750 yuan/50 base tons [6]. Stainless Steel Futures - The night trading session on February 25 opened slightly higher, with the market showing a strong upward trend throughout the day, closing with a bullish candlestick pattern. The next trading day for the 2604 contract is expected to range between 14,100 and 14,400 yuan/ton [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the market dynamics and future strategic outlook for seamless steel pipes used in rotary drilling rigs in China from 2026 to 2032, indicating a decline in market prices for specific steel pipe categories [1] Price Trends - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the market price for seamless steel pipes (219*6, 20) in early February 2026 is 4045.6 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.32% and no change from the previous month [1] - The highest recorded price for the same category of seamless steel pipes in early February over the past five years was 5797.7 yuan/ton in 2022 [1]

Group 1 - The steel sector is experiencing a valuation recovery, with the steel ETF (515210) rising over 1% during intraday trading on February 26, and a net inflow exceeding 80 million yuan on the previous trading day [1] - Everbright Securities indicates that the probability of supply-side adjustments in the steel industry has increased in the short to medium term, with losses for listed steel companies approaching levels seen in Q3/Q4 of 2024 by Q4 of 2025 [1] - The tightening of steel export policies since early 2026, including the implementation of export license management for certain steel products starting January 1, 2026, poses a risk to the profitability of the steel industry, which heavily relies on direct and indirect exports [1] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 reiterated the need to address "involution" competition and promote energy-saving and carbon reduction transformations in key industries, emphasizing continued control over crude steel production [1] - The steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Industry Index (930606), which selects listed companies from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets involved in various steel sectors, reflecting the overall performance of the steel industry [1] - The index constituents cover major areas within the industry, with ordinary steel holding a dominant position, and the sample is regularly adjusted to maintain industry representation [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the competitive landscape and development prospects of the rebar industry in China from 2026 to 2032 [1] Price Trends - As of early February 2026, the market price for rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) is 3169 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.98% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.33% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years for the same period was in early February 2022, reaching 4871.7 yuan per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the market dynamics and investment potential of the ultra-fine electronic wire industry in China from 2026 to 2032, with a focus on the price trends of black metal wire materials. Price Trends - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the market price of wire materials (Φ8—10mm, HPB300) in early February 2026 is 3357.1 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.08% and a month-on-month decline of 0.41% [1] - Over the past five years, the highest price for the same period was recorded in early February 2022, reaching 5044 yuan/ton [1]

【导语】农历马年春节后热轧板卷行情走势峰回路转，开市首日震荡下滑，次日回收下跌失地，转为上 涨局面。就热轧板卷产销用各个环节复工情况来看，基本已达到8成水平，市场交投陆续恢复。 产：春节期间钢厂生产变动不大，供应压力逐步堆积 热轧板卷作为长流程冶炼产品，春节期间不存在停产一说，就卓创资讯监测2026年春节期间热轧钢厂生 产情况，多数钢厂维持满产状态，仅有华东地区新增一条轧线检修，带动春节期间热轧板卷产量出现微 幅下滑，具体数据来看，春节期间热轧板卷日均产量在93.13万吨，较节前日均产量下降0.64%，降幅相 对有限，在市场需求集中退市的背景下，供应维持高位，对贸易环节形成较大压力。节后来看，华中、 华东均有轧线复产，或带动热轧板卷产量回升至94.51万吨，较春节期间增加1.48%。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 （卓创资讯分析师李欢） 销：中间贸易环节尚未完全复产，库存累积已初现端倪 就卓创资讯监测热轧板卷贸易商复工情况来看，截至初八，85%的贸易商已经复工，剩余10%的企业预 计在初九复工，初十贸易商或集中复工完毕。就卓创资讯调研2月24日社会库存情况来看，贸易商库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production seasonally cools down; the Spring Festival movie box - office drops nearly 40% year - on - year while tourist trips and spending hit new highs due to an extra holiday day; overall prices decline with oil, coking coal, and rebar prices falling, non - ferrous prices rising slightly, and agricultural products entering a seasonal downward trend; affected by the Spring Festival, subway ridership and peak congestion index in first - tier cities are low, while flight volume is high. Short - term attention should be paid to the progress of front - loaded fiscal efforts and the recovery of the real estate market [2][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production: Seasonal Obvious Cooling - Steel: In the week of February 20, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.11 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.6 pct, and the rebar output increased by 1.22 tons. The inventory of rebar increased by 57.48 tons [9]. - Petroleum Asphalt: In the week of February 11, the operating rate of domestic petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 2.8 pct at a low level [9]. - Chemicals: On February 24, the PX operating rate remained flat compared with the previous week, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 3.86 pct [9]. - Automobile Tires: In the week of February 19, the full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 28.2 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 45.2 pct [10]. Demand: Spring Festival Tourism and Consumption Hit New Highs, Movie Box - Office Drops Significantly Year - on - Year - Real Estate: In the week of February 22, the commercial housing transaction area decreased, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased significantly, the land supply area dropped sharply, and the residential land transaction premium rate decreased [13]. - Movie Box - Office: In 2026, the Spring Festival movie box - office was 5.752 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 39.5%; the number of moviegoers was 120 million, a year - on - year decrease of 35.8% [13]. - Tourism Consumption: Due to an extra day of the Spring Festival holiday, the number of tourist trips and spending both hit new highs. During the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday, there were 596 million domestic tourist trips and the total domestic tourism spending was 803.483 billion yuan [14]. - Automobile Sales: In the week of February 8, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 9,218 units, and the average daily wholesale sales decreased by 15,720 units [18]. - Shipping Freight Rates: In the week of February 13, the SCFI index decreased by 1.19%, and the CCFI index decreased by 3.03%. On February 24, the BDI index increased by 1.62% compared with the previous week [20]. Prices: Non - ferrous Prices Rise, Agricultural Products Enter a Seasonal Downward Trend - Energy: On February 24, the Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.38% to $70.77 per barrel [22]. - Coking Coal: On February 24, the coking coal futures price decreased by 1.74% to 1,100.5 yuan per ton [22]. - Metals: On February 24, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices increased by 1.78%, 0.26%, and 0.15% respectively, while the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 0.98% [23]. - Agricultural Products: On February 24, the overall agricultural product price declined, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreasing by 0.81%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by - 0.17%, - 2.46%, - 2.33%, and + 1.50% respectively compared with before the festival [25]. Logistics: Flight Volume is High, Spring Festival Personnel Flow Hits a New High - Subway Ridership: On February 24, the seven - day moving average of subway ridership in Beijing decreased by 125.34 million person - times, a week - on - week decrease of 18.32%; in Shanghai, it decreased by 171.29 million person - times, a week - on - week decrease of 23.57% [26]. - Personnel Flow: During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the cross - regional personnel flow in the whole society reached 2.81 billion person - times, a new high. The daily average was 310 million person - times, an 8.2% increase compared with the same period last year [29]. - Flight Volume: On February 24, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 3.37%, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 1.08%, and that of international flights increased by 0.35% [29]. - Urban Traffic: On February 24, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 5.79% compared with the previous week [29].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration plans to reduce certain tariffs on steel and aluminum products due to concerns that these tariffs are raising consumer prices and affecting public sentiment ahead of the midterm elections [1] Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. Department of Commerce and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative believe that the tariffs are harming consumers by increasing prices [1] - Trump imposed tariffs of up to 50% on imported steel and aluminum last year, using them as leverage in trade negotiations [1] - The administration is currently reviewing the list of products affected by the tariffs and plans to exempt certain items while pausing the expansion of the list [1] Group 2: Economic Impact and Public Sentiment - Concerns about rising consumer prices are prevalent among voters, making the cost of living a significant issue in the upcoming elections [1] - Trump is promoting his economic achievements in Detroit to refocus public attention on U.S. manufacturing and efforts to address high consumer costs [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is expected to be weakly volatile [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to buy on dips; aluminum is advised to strengthen observation; nickel is recommended to hold moderately on dips; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][9][10][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda is expected to trade at a low level; soda ash is recommended to short on rallies; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1][15][17][18]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and apples are expected to be strongly volatile; red dates are expected to move sideways [1][23][24][25]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are advised to be cautious about shorting in the 05 contract and short on rallies; eggs are recommended to short on rallies in the near - month contract if the culling does not accelerate; corn is for range trading; soybean meal is recommended to short on rallies; oils are advised to buy on dips [1][25][27][28]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the price trends and investment opportunities of different industries, taking into account factors such as policy changes, inventory levels, and production capacity [1]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Short - term may move sideways, and may be strongly volatile before the Two Sessions. Pay attention to market sentiment towards the Two Sessions. Medium - to long - term is bullish, suggesting buying on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: May move sideways, pay attention to supply pressure [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is generally weak and stable. Short - term trading is recommended [7]. - **Rebar**: On Wednesday, the rebar futures price rebounded. It is expected to move sideways under the background of low valuation and weak driving force. Pay attention to the post - festival demand recovery progress [7]. - **Glass**: Supply has decreased, inventory has accumulated, and demand will be weak in the short term. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and the post - festival volatility will increase [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply - demand relationship is tight, and there is still support. After a rapid release of risks, it may stabilize. Pay attention to the post - festival inventory inflection point and macro - sentiment calming [9]. - **Aluminum**: The supply expectation has improved, but the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous market remains. Strengthen observation [10]. - **Nickel**: Affected by the reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, the ore end has strong support. It is recommended to hold moderately on dips [12]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in rigid procurement. It is expected to continue to trade in a range [12]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as Trump's tariff increase and the Fed's policy, the medium - term price operation center has moved up. Range trading is recommended [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply may increase, and it is expected to continue to trade in a range. Pay attention to the disturbance at the Yichun ore end [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand situation is still weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading. It is expected to trade at a low level. Pay attention to policies, export, inventory, and raw material prices [15]. - **Caustic Soda**: The demand support is weak, and there is inventory pressure. It is expected to trade at a low level. Pay attention to supply - side maintenance and downstream replenishment [17]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, but the supply pressure will increase in March. Pay attention to raw material prices and downstream demand [18]. - **Rubber**: The cost support is enhanced, and the demand is expected to be boosted. It is expected to trade in a range. Pay attention to inventory and downstream开工 rates [19]. - **Urea**: The supply has increased, and the demand is supported. It is expected to move sideways [20]. - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased, and the demand is weak. The inland market is relatively weak [20]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory has accumulated. It is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to downstream demand, inventory, and geopolitical situations [21]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to be high, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [22]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The consumption expectation has recovered after the festival, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [23]. - **Apples**: The sales in the producing and selling areas are normal. It is expected to be strongly volatile [24]. - **Red Dates**: The acquisition price in the producing area is based on quality. It is expected to move sideways [25]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short term, the price is weakly adjusted. In the medium - to long - term, the supply will gradually tighten. The 05 contract is advised to short on rallies [25]. - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is seasonally weak. If the culling does not accelerate, short on rallies in the near - month contract [27]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the price is expected to move in a range. In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Range trading is recommended [28]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [29]. - **Oils**: In the short term, there is support below, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [29].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rebound [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Reasons for Steel Price Rebound - Some steel enterprises in North China have received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the 2026 national important meeting, requiring them to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4th to March 11th, with the blast furnace load reduced by no less than 30%. The control focuses on key emission processes such as blast furnaces to ensure stable air quality during the meeting [3] - Shanghai has issued the "Shanghai Seven" real - estate policy, which relaxes the purchase restriction policy, including reducing the social security requirement for non - Shanghai residents to buy housing inside the outer ring from 3 years to 1 year, allowing those who have paid social security for 3 years to purchase an additional property, and those with a residence permit for 5 years to buy one property without social security. The maximum amount of provident fund family loans can reach 3.24 million yuan, and Shanghai - registered families can be temporarily exempted from property tax when purchasing their only housing [3] - Affected by the emission reduction notice for the Two Sessions, the black - colored plate strengthened as a whole yesterday, with the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rising by more than 1%. The steel price rebound is mainly due to market sentiment, and the fundamentals of steel have not changed much [3] Later Concerns - Macro - policies and downstream demand conditions [4]