上周，A股市场震荡调整，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别累计下跌3.90%、5.13%、6.15%。 Wind数据显示，截至11月21日，A股市场融资余额报24451.78亿元，融券余额报162.72亿元，上周融资余额减少295.21亿元。 上周，国防军工行业融资余额增加超10亿元，A股市场融资净买入金额最大的股票为宁德时代，净卖出金额最大的股票为胜宏科技。 从行业情况来看，上周申万一级31个行业中仅有8个行业融资余额增加，国防军工、传媒、农林牧渔行业融资净买入金额居前，分别为10.06亿元、4.92亿 元、2.74亿元。在出现融资余额减少的23个行业中，电子、电力设备、有色金属行业融资净卖出金额居前，分别为109.34亿元、53.22亿元、36.01亿元。 数据来源：Wind 加仓宁德时代超21亿元 从个股情况来看，上周融资客对65只股票加仓金额超1亿元，加仓居前的10只股票分别为宁德时代、中际旭创、航天发展、蓝色光标、江淮汽车、京东方 A、瑞芯微、方正科技、中金黄金、沪电股份，分别净买入21.05亿元、5.82亿元、4.17亿元、3.78亿元、3.36亿元、3.34亿元、2.59亿元、2.56亿元、2.4 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午收盘，今日沪指跌0.34%，A股成交量714.49亿股，成交金额10324.73 亿元，比上一个交易日减少21.58%。个股方面，3201只个股上涨，其中涨停54只，2024只个股下跌， 其中跌停35只。从申万行业来看，国防军工、综合、传媒等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为2.68%、1.17%、 1.08%；石油石化、煤炭、有色金属等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.91%、1.67%、1.61%。（数据宝） | 电子 | | | | 大为股份 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | -1.61 | 557.58 | -24.87 | 融捷股份 | -10.01 | | 煤炭 | -1.67 | 62.17 | -28.35 | 安泰集团 | -5.76 | | 石油石化 | -1.91 | 72.98 | -25.00 | 和顺石油 | -5.56 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 今日各行业表现（截至上午收盘） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | ...

中信建投证券表示，当前市场处于"三期叠加"：牛市中段整固期，景气验证关键期，业绩政策空窗期， 市场震荡轮动和资金年底止盈等特征也会进一步放大。近期海外环境出现较多扰动，美联储12月降息预 期反复，带动全球市场流动性预期波动；英伟达财报超预期，但股价出现巨震，投资者担忧AI开支可 持续性，蔓延影响A股情绪。长期而言，慢牛格局的主要因素不变；短期来看，策略层面以择机布局为 主，时点上等待12月中上旬的美联储议息会议和中央经济工作会议落地，其间若调整较充分也可加仓吸 筹，关注60日线与半年线支撑和市场缩量情况。 24日早盘，两市主要股指盘中震荡回落，创业板指盘中跌约1%失守2900点，场内约3200股飘红。 盘面上看，煤炭、燃气、有色、电力、保险等板块走低，军工、医药等板块逆市拉升，军贸概念、AI 应用概念等活跃。 截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.34%报3821.68点，深证成指跌0.59%，创业板指跌0.77%，沪深北三市合计成交 10326亿元。 ...

Group 1 - Market sentiment score has slightly decreased to 3.8 as of November 21, down from 3.9 the previous week, indicating a bearish outlook [7][11] - The consistency between price and volume has weakened significantly, showing a decline in market engagement and a drop in risk appetite, particularly reflected in the decreasing trading volume of the Sci-Tech 50 index [11][18] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market has decreased by 8.74% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 18650.36 billion yuan [15][17] Group 2 - The banking, textile and apparel, defense, petrochemical, and comprehensive sectors have shown an upward trend in short-term scores, with the petrochemical sector leading at a score of 83.05 [40][41] - The correlation between sector crowding and weekly price changes is negative at -0.24, indicating that sectors with high crowding, such as electric power equipment and basic chemicals, have experienced significant declines [44][46] - The current model indicates a preference for small-cap and value styles, with strong signals for both, although the strength of these signals may need further observation [50][52]

| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 2.40 | 425.36 | 35.85 | 航天环宇 | 19.99 | | 综合 | 1.70 | 23.55 | -22.80 | 南京新百 | 5.01 | | 通信 | 1.28 | 473.69 | -0.98 | 光库科技 | 14.46 | | 社会服务 | 1.05 | 64.17 | -17.07 | 国义招标 | 12.32 | | 传媒 | 1.02 | 376.17 | 10.75 | 值得买 | 11.60 | | 房地产 | 0.94 | 141.27 | -13.54 | 世联行 | 10.10 | | 建筑装饰 | 0.84 | 143.67 | -6.41 | 招标股份 | 20.00 | | 医药生物 | 0.75 | 366.57 | -27.71 | 中源协和 | 10.02 | | 农林牧渔 | 0.57 | 186.71 | -25.90 | 永安林业 | 1 ...

Core Insights - The defense and military industry sector is experiencing significant strength, leading the market with a net inflow of over 5.2 billion yuan as of November 24 [1] - The popular defense military ETF (512810) has risen over 2%, indicating strong buying interest and potential for further capital inflow [1][2] - The sector's fundamentals are supported by a projected revenue increase of 16.99% year-on-year, with a net profit growth of 14.01% in the third quarter of 2025 [3] Investment Trends - Major stocks in the defense sector, such as China Shipbuilding Defense and China Aerospace Science and Technology, have seen significant price increases, with some hitting new highs [2] - The defense military ETF (512810) is highlighted as an efficient investment tool, covering various themes including commercial aerospace and military AI [5][6] Market Performance - The defense sector's revenue for the third quarter reached 600.375 billion yuan, showing a recovery from previous lows [3] - The ETF has attracted a net subscription of 130 million yuan over the past ten days, reflecting strong investor interest [1]

Group 1 - The technology growth sector has experienced a significant pullback, leading to adjustments in the A-share market, but the downside space is considered limited after continuous adjustments, with expectations for a market recovery starting in November and an early layout window for the spring 2026 market [1][7] - Investment institutions suggest focusing on dividend stocks, cyclical stocks benefiting from rising commodity prices, as well as innovative pharmaceuticals and defense industries; there are also rebound opportunities in AI computing power, storage, energy storage, and robotics sectors [1][6][7] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is committed to advancing high-quality development of the industrial internet, emphasizing smart, green, and integrated directions to support new productive forces [2] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is promoting the professional integration of central enterprises, with key project signings in critical areas such as new materials, artificial intelligence, and logistics [3] Group 3 - Sixteen hard technology-themed funds have been approved, including the first batch of AI ETFs and chip ETFs, indicating a growing interest in technology investments [4] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with a focus on dividend stocks for defensive strategies, and a potential rebound in the technology sector as concerns over AI bubbles diminish [5][6] Group 4 - The lithium battery industry chain is experiencing high demand, driven by strong market conditions in energy storage and the upcoming sales peak for new energy vehicles, with expectations for continued high prosperity [8] - The AI industry continues to show strong momentum, supported by domestic policies promoting self-innovation and new productive forces, with long-term value becoming more apparent if AI giants enhance their profitability [9][10] Group 5 - Future market outlook suggests that major A-share indices may exhibit strong oscillation patterns, with a focus on three key areas: essential resource products with rigid supply, traditional industries benefiting from supply-side reforms, and high-elasticity sectors like military and AI industry chains [11]

证券研究报告 建议择机入场 2025 年 11 月 23 日│中国内地 量化投资周报 本周观点：建议择机入场 上周，受全球流动性压力、美联储降息预期反复以及 AI 叙事松动多重因素 影响，全球风险偏好下降——VIX 指数攀升至近三个月高位，各类风险资产 均承压，其中比特币、微盘股等对流动性和风偏更敏感的资产领跌。我们的 模型认为 A 股经过上周的调整，整体上消化了过高的估值，观点由防御转 为看平。叠加周五美联储释放了略积极的降息信号，Nowcasting 模型预测 11 月 CPI 或将继续上行至 3.7%-3.8%，但核心 CPI 预计保持平稳，或有利 于市场风偏的恢复。建议择机入场，优选低位防御板块，本周行业轮动模型 加大了对低位消费板块的押注，风格上仍看好红利。 A 股大盘择时模型：上周回调消化了高估值压力，可择机入场 我们以万得全 A 指数作为 A 股大盘代理，从估值、情绪、资金、技术四个 维度对 A 股大盘进行整体方向性判断。今年以来，模型多空择时的扣费后 收益 43.84%，同期 A 股大盘涨跌幅为 20.09%，超额收益为 23.76%；上周 模型超额收益为 10.41%。上周，受全球流动性压力 ...

Market Performance - All three major indices declined during the week from November 17 to 21, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 3.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.13%, and the ChiNext Index by 6.15% [1][2]. Stock Movements - A total of 17 stocks experienced a weekly increase of over 30%, with Jianglong Shipbuilding leading at a rise of 64.97%. Other notable gainers included Rongji Software (61.06%), Zhongshui Fishery (61.05%), and *ST Dongtong (45.41%) [3][4]. - Conversely, 58 stocks saw declines exceeding 20%, with Huasheng Lithium Battery leading the drop at 33.19%, followed by Shanshui Bide (31.71%) and Zhongneng Electric (28.42%) [3][4]. Trading Activity - 78 stocks had a turnover rate exceeding 100%, with C South Network leading at 256.12%, followed closely by Jianglong Shipbuilding at 251.43% and C Hengkun at 243.47% [5][6]. - The majority of stocks with turnover rates above 100% were from the power equipment, computer, and pharmaceutical sectors [5]. Capital Flow - No industry saw net inflows from major funds during the week, with the power equipment sector experiencing a net outflow exceeding 50 billion yuan. Notably, Kaimeteqi received a net inflow of 1.297 billion yuan, marking a weekly increase of 13.93% [8][9]. - Other stocks with significant net inflows included Yidian Tianxia (9.04 billion yuan), Rongji Software (7.71 billion yuan), and C South Network (7.68 billion yuan) [8][9]. Margin Trading - Ningde Times topped the list for net buy amounts in margin trading, with a net buy of 2.117 billion yuan despite a weekly decline of 8.44%. Other notable net buys included Zhongji Xuchuang and Aerospace Development [10][11]. Institutional Research - A total of 441 listed companies were researched by institutions, with Ninebot Company-WD receiving the most attention from 179 institutions. Other companies like Rongbai Technology and Lens Technology were also highlighted [13][14]. - Institutions showed a focus on sectors such as industrial machinery, electronic components, and specialty chemicals [13]. New Institutional Interests - Institutions initiated coverage on 50 stocks this week, with nine stocks receiving target prices. Notable mentions include Tanshihua with a target price of 11.14 yuan and Beifang Navigation with a target price of 15.60 yuan [15][16].

Core Viewpoints - The current adjustment is characterized as a "doubtful bull market level," indicating that the major trends in the AI industry chain have not ended, although there are short-term fluctuations and a temporary lack of cost-effectiveness in large trends. This situation resembles historical patterns observed in early 2014, early 2018, and early 2021 [1][3][5] - The "two-stage bull market theory" remains unchanged, suggesting that the transition from Bull Market 1.0 to 2.0 is a typical feature of the A-share bull market cycle. The transition period is expected to occur in the first half of 2026, with a full bull market potentially starting in the second half of 2026 [1][5][6] Summary by Sections Adjustment Phase - The adjustment phase is seen as a "doubtful bull market level," where the AI industry chain is experiencing a lack of cost-effectiveness, leading to a market correction. Historical experiences indicate that such adjustments are typical and often occur in quarterly cycles [3][4] - The current market conditions show that the implied equity risk premium (ERP) in sectors like telecommunications and electronics is still above historical lows, while the price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are at absolute historical highs [3][4] Spring Market Outlook - The spring market is expected to be more promising post-adjustment, with economic growth needing to maintain a high level to achieve the 2035 medium-developed country goal. The third quarter of 2025 showed weak economic performance, and December 2025 is seen as a critical window for laying out economic policies for 2026 [6][7] - The technology sector is anticipated to see a rapid improvement in cost-effectiveness, with institutional investors reducing their technology holdings in the short term. The micro-structural improvements in the technology sector are also expected to play a significant role in the spring market rotation [6][7] 2026 Industry Style and Rhythm Outlook - The transition from Bull Market 1.0 to 2.0 is expected to favor high-dividend defensive stocks. The actual improvement in economic sentiment will catalyze cyclical stocks to lead index breakthroughs, with technology trends and manufacturing global influence being the main themes of the bull market [8] - In the spring of 2026, the early validation of policy bottoms, cyclical price increases, and improved year-on-year PPI expectations will provide a foundation for cyclical assets. Key areas of focus include basic chemicals, industrial technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and defense industries, with potential rebounds in AI computing power, storage, energy storage, and robotics [8]