Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index over the past year, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a 32% increase and the ChiNext Index a 48% increase [1][2] - The report provides a detailed analysis of industry performance, indicating that the banking sector led with a 0.976% increase, while the real estate sector faced a significant decline of -3.665% [3][4] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the recent merger and acquisition policies in Guangzhou, focusing on the "12218" industrial merger opportunities, which aim to enhance industrial development [7][8] - It notes that the restructuring index fell by 5.68%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300, indicating a challenging environment for mergers and acquisitions [7] - The report identifies key merger cases, such as the acquisition of New Wave Media by Focus Media, which aims to restructure the advertising landscape [9] Company Updates - Camel Group (骆驼股份) reported a stable main business with a 10.7% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024, and a significant 51.9% increase in net profit for Q1 2025 [28][29] - BYD (比亚迪) achieved a remarkable 100.4% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2025, driven by a 59.8% increase in new energy vehicle sales [32][33] - Xiangyu Medical (翔宇医疗) faced a challenging 2024 with a 54.68% decline in net profit, but is expected to see gradual improvement in performance [36][37] Market Trends - The chemical industry is experiencing a rise in refrigerant prices due to strong global demand, with significant increases in production rates projected for the upcoming months [13][14] - The automotive sector is witnessing a surge in smart vehicle technology, with major players showcasing new models at the Shanghai Auto Show, indicating a trend towards increased automation and intelligence in vehicles [19][20] - The media industry is focusing on high-growth areas such as social media expansion and AI applications, with companies like Red Star Technology reporting substantial revenue growth [23][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights strong performance in Q1 and maintains a long-term positive outlook for the pet sector [3] - The pig price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a long-term bearish outlook for 2025 due to increased supply [5][14] - The poultry sector may see price improvements due to tariff impacts and supply chain adjustments [6][28] - The animal health sector is poised for valuation recovery driven by improved downstream demand and expansion opportunities [7][39] - The planting sector is experiencing a significant decrease in grain imports, which may affect pricing dynamics [8][44] - The feed sector remains at a low level, with expectations of increased industry concentration [9][47] - The pet market continues to grow rapidly, with strong domestic brand performance [10][52] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Pig prices are expected to adjust slightly downwards, with a long-term bearish trend anticipated for 2025 due to increased production capacity [5][14] - As of April 24, the average pig price was 14.96 CNY/kg, with a slight weekly increase [14] Poultry Industry - The poultry sector may benefit from tariff impacts, with a potential price increase due to supply chain disruptions [6][28] - The industry is expected to stabilize at low production levels, leading to stable profitability [6][29] Animal Health - The animal health sector is seeing improved performance, with significant revenue growth reported by leading companies [7][39] - The prices of key raw materials are rising, which may enhance the performance of related companies [7][39] Planting Sector - A notable decline in grain imports was recorded in March, with a 73.5% year-on-year decrease [8][44] - The prices of major grains have shown some recovery, with corn priced at 2220 CNY/ton as of April 25 [8][44] Feed Industry - Feed prices are currently low, with a slight decrease in the price of pig feed [9][47] - The industry is expected to see increased concentration, with recommendations for leading companies [9][49] Pet Industry - The pet market in China reached a scale of 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [10][52] - Domestic brands are rapidly gaining market share, with significant growth reported for leading pet food brands [10][56]

Core Viewpoint - TianKang Biological has reported a significant turnaround in its financial performance for 2024, achieving a net profit of 605 million yuan, compared to a loss in the previous year, indicating a successful V-shaped recovery in its operations [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved total operating revenue of 17.176 billion yuan, with a notable increase in profit margins across its three main business segments: pig farming, feed, and veterinary medicine [1]. - The pig farming segment generated revenue of 6.157 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.11% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 14.61%, up by 28.43% from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Business Structure and Capabilities - TianKang Biological is recognized as a key agricultural enterprise in China, with a complete industry chain covering breeding, feed management, veterinary medicine, and meat processing [1]. - The company operates over 30 feed production facilities nationwide and ranks among the top 20 in the national feed industry [1]. Group 3: Research and Development - The company has invested over 15% of its biopharmaceutical sales revenue into R&D, establishing research centers in Xinjiang and Jiangsu [2]. - It has developed China's first genetically engineered inactivated vaccine for swine fever, providing significant support for disease control in pigs [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - TianKang Biological aims to achieve a total revenue of 21 billion yuan by 2025, with specific targets for feed production, animal vaccines, and pig output [3]. - The company plans to enhance its service offerings to farmers, focusing on key areas such as feed, breeding, and veterinary services to improve farming efficiency [3]. Group 5: Shareholder Returns - The company has proposed a cash dividend of 2.20 yuan per 10 shares, translating to an approximate dividend yield of 3.52% based on the closing price on April 28 [3].

农林牧渔/饲料 禾丰股份（603609.SH） 白鸡屠宰量稳步上行，生猪业务回暖贡献利润 2025 年 04 月 28 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 8.26 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 9.38/5.96 | | 总市值(亿元) | 75.95 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 75.95 | | 总股本(亿股) | 9.19 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 9.19 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 52.26 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 禾丰股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 陈雪丽（分析师） 朱本伦（联系人） chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 zhubenlun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124060020 风险提示：公司成本不及预期，猪鸡涨价不及预期，疫病风险，原料价格风险。 | 财务摘要和估值指标 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Future Growth Strategies - The company aims to achieve over 3 million tons of export volume by 2025 and 51.5 million tons of total sales by 2030, focusing on expanding its feed business as the core strategy [2][3] - The company is exploring light-asset pig farming and factory-style shrimp farming, which are expected to become key business areas in the future [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a feed sales volume of 26.52 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 9%, with a net profit of 4.504 billion yuan, up 64.3% [3][4] - The company's revenue for 2024 was 114.601 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.31% year-on-year [3][4] Group 3: Market Position and Competition - The company’s domestic feed sales volume reached 22.06 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of about 5%, while the overall industrial feed production in China declined by 2.1% [5][6] - The company is focusing on enhancing its market share in regions such as South China, East China, and North China through operational excellence and customer orientation [5][6] Group 4: Risk Management and Challenges - The company has established a strict disease prevention system in feed production to mitigate risks associated with livestock diseases [6][7] - The company is prepared for future competition in overseas markets and is gradually expanding its seedling and feed businesses internationally [6][7] Group 5: Capital Management and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 1.8 billion yuan in 2024, with future distributions based on actual operating conditions [7][8] - The company’s debt levels and asset-liability ratios have decreased as of the end of 2024, indicating improved financial health [7][8]

新华财经上海4月28日电随着财报披露接近尾声，公募机构正加紧对上市公司基本面进行最后验证：一 方面深度挖掘年报业绩超预期标的，另一方面提前布局一季报展现成长性的优质企业。这种密集调研行 为既反映了公募机构对财报季投资机会的重视，也预示着二季度调仓换股的序幕正在拉开。 据公募排排网统计数据显示，在上市公司年报及一季报披露进入收官阶段的关键窗口期（2025年4月21 日-4月27日），公募机构调研活动呈现爆发式增长。全市场156家公募机构参与调研，囊括了全市场 95%以上的公募机构，调研范围涵盖26个申万一级行业的244家上市公司，合计调研频次达2849次，周 度环比大增163.80%。 数据显示，上周共有178只个股获得公募机构密集调研，被调研次数均不少于5次，平均日均调研不低于 1次。通信行业中有3只个股跻身前十，分别是天孚通信、仕佳光子和新易盛，依次被调研62次、42次和 38次，其中天孚通信位列被调研次数位列榜首，仕佳光子则以66.54%的涨幅成为上周表现最为突出的 公募调研股。此外，农林牧渔与电子行业各有2只个股进入调研热度前十。 | 上周公募调研次数前十个股 | 申万一级行业 | 被调研次数(次) | ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the structure and dynamics of the feed industry in China, highlighting the upstream raw materials, midstream production, and downstream demand from farming and aquaculture sectors [1][4][6]. Industry Chain Overview - The feed industry chain consists of three segments: upstream raw materials (energy, protein, and microbial sources), midstream feed product development and production (including pig, poultry, ruminant, and aquaculture feeds), and downstream demand primarily from farmers and aquaculture enterprises [1]. - Recent government initiatives aim to reduce reliance on imported corn and soybean meal, leading to a gradual establishment of domestic raw material sources and improved stability [1]. - Midstream companies are enhancing innovation capabilities and accelerating new product development, with increasing vertical integration between midstream and upstream/downstream sectors [1]. - Rising meat consumption levels in China are expected to boost the scale of downstream aquaculture and livestock farming [1]. Regional Distribution - Upstream raw material suppliers are mainly located in Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Fujian, and Beijing, while feed production companies are concentrated in Guangdong and Sichuan [6]. - The majority of downstream aquaculture companies are found in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Henan provinces [6]. Company Developments - Major feed companies in China, such as New Hope, Haida Group, and Tongwei, have reported feed revenues exceeding 30 billion yuan, with some companies like Dabeinong and Jingji Zhino achieving gross margins above 11% [9]. - Haida Group and New Hope have high feed production and sales volumes, each exceeding 20 million tons [9]. - Investment activities in 2023 include establishing subsidiaries, new projects, and increasing capital in existing subsidiaries by leading feed companies [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the resilience of agriculture, recommending undervalued leading companies in the sector. It highlights the importance of enhancing agricultural production and stabilizing prices for key agricultural products, with a target grain production of 1.4 trillion jin for 2025 [2][4] - The report suggests that the agricultural sector, being fundamental to the nation, presents significant allocation value due to its current low valuations and the need to protect farmers' incomes. The anticipated rise in agricultural stocks is expected to occur in three phases: emotional stimulation, industrial logic development, and cyclical upturn driving EPS and PE [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Livestock - The latest pig price is 14.78 yuan/kg, with a weight of 128.94 kg for market pigs. The price of 15 kg piglets has dropped to 649 yuan/head, indicating a short-term strong performance but a long-term oversupply situation [5][18] - The total number of breeding sows is 40.39 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. The total pig inventory is 41.731 million, up 2.2% year-on-year [18][19] - Investment should shift from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price," focusing on leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [19] 2. Poultry - The price of broiler chickens has rebounded, with chick prices stable at 3.1 yuan/chick. The price of broiler chickens is 7.5 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.58% [20] - The report highlights the concentration of industry profits towards upstream breeding sources, suggesting a focus on companies like Yisheng Livestock and Shennong Development [20] 3. Feed - Fish prices have risen while feed prices have decreased, indicating an improvement in aquaculture profitability. The report anticipates a recovery in demand for aquaculture feed in 2025 [21][22] - The leading companies are expected to improve their market share and cash flow as they enter a new phase of stable cash flow [21][22] 4. Pet Industry - Exports of pet food have increased significantly, with a total of 30,000 tons exported in March, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%. The revenue from exports reached 9.1 billion yuan [23][24] - The report notes a strong performance in canned pet food, with export volume increasing by 52.6% and revenue by 98% [24] 5. Agricultural Products - The report indicates that domestic agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, with a high self-sufficiency rate in grains. It predicts a potential upward trend in agricultural prices due to reduced imports [30] - The USDA's April report maintains previous forecasts for soybean and corn production, indicating a stable supply-demand balance [30] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3787 points, with the Agricultural Index at 2608 points, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.16% [31] - The report highlights the need for policies to support low-income groups and enhance consumption, which could positively impact the agricultural sector [61]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture sector is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The agriculture sector's public fund heavy holdings have decreased in Q1 2025, but there is an expectation for a rebound in Q2 2025 due to enhanced investment logic driven by the US-China tariff escalation [4][13] - The livestock sector shows low valuation recovery potential, while the pet sector's domestic brand growth logic continues to strengthen [6][22][24] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - In Q1 2025, the public fund heavy holdings in the agriculture sector decreased, with total market value dropping to 12,367 billion yuan, a 0.40% decrease quarter-on-quarter, and accounting for 1.69% of the A-share market [4][13] - The heavy holdings in the agriculture sector represented 0.40% of the total public fund stock investment, down from 0.44% in Q4 2023 [4][13] Weekly Insights - The low valuation of the pig sector presents a buying opportunity, supported by a recovery in consumption and macro policies [22] - The feed sector benefits from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [22] Market Performance (April 21-25) - The agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.72 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.56% while the agriculture index fell by 0.16% [25][29] - The pet food sector led the gains, with individual stocks like Zhongchong Co. and Guibao Pet rising significantly [25][31] Price Tracking (April 21-25) - The average price of live pigs was 14.95 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of white strip meat increased by 0.05 yuan/kg to 19.31 yuan/kg [36] - The average price of beef rose to 68.52 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.84% increase [36][43] Key News (April 21-25) - The number of breeding sows at the end of Q1 2025 was 40.39 million, a 1.0% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 1.2% increase year-on-year, indicating stable production capacity [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig farming sector currently has a large safety margin due to sufficient trading expectations, with potential pressure on pig output in the first half of 2025 [3][4] - The report highlights that the supply of breeding sows continues to decline, with the number of breeding sows at 40.39 million heads, down 1.0% quarter-on-quarter [2][13] - The report notes that the average price of live pigs has decreased to 15.2 yuan/kg in March, reflecting a 3.6% decline month-on-month, while the average price of piglets has increased by 2.8% month-on-month [18][34] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming Sector - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased to 128.94 kg, up 0.37 kg week-on-week, indicating a potential supply-demand balance [35] - The total number of pigs slaughtered in Q1 2025 was 19.476 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.11% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.86% [14] - The average profit per pig has decreased to 84 yuan per head for large-scale farms and 54 yuan per head for smallholders, down from 131 yuan and 75 yuan respectively in February [18] 2. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming companies with high output and cost recovery, specifically recommending Muyuan Foods and Shennong Group, while suggesting to pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group and Juxing Agriculture [3] - For the post-cycle sector, the recovery in pig inventory is expected to boost demand for feed and veterinary products, with a recommendation to focus on Haida Group [3] - In the planting chain, the report suggests that the strong grain prices due to Sino-US tariff disputes present investment opportunities, recommending companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3] 3. Market Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 0.16% compared to a 0.56% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [26] - The report details that the animal health, feed, and agricultural product processing sectors saw varying performance, with animal health up 5.42% and poultry farming down 1.22% [26][29]