大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 研究员：贾瑞林 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数(欧线)日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 増减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 増减幅 | | EC2510 | 1,121.1 | 1.2 | 0.11% | 6.475.0 | -58.39% | 18,352.0 | -12.73% | | EC2512 | 1,571.0 | -117.0 | -6.93% | 31,475.0 | -24.17% | 28,056.0 | 15.83% | | EC2602 | 1,338.0 | -68.0 | -4.84% | 7,164.0 | -43.98% ...

Core Points - The U.S. is set to implement the "301 tariff" measures against Chinese shipping companies starting October 14, which will impose additional fees on Chinese-owned, operated, or built vessels, as well as foreign-built car carriers [1][2] - The measures are expected to disrupt global shipping order and ultimately increase costs for businesses and consumers, rather than reviving the U.S. shipbuilding industry [1][4] Group 1: Implementation Details - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced fees of $50 per net ton for Chinese-owned or operated vessels, $18 per net ton or $120 per container for Chinese-built vessels, and $14 per net ton for non-U.S. built car carriers [2] - The measures are seen as a significant step in the U.S. policy to enhance its shipbuilding competitiveness, which was initiated with an investigation in April 2022 [2][3] Group 2: Industry Impact - Experts from the China Shipowners Association criticized the U.S. measures as a hegemonic act that violates World Trade Organization non-discrimination principles, arguing that the rationale of revitalizing the U.S. shipbuilding industry is flawed due to significantly higher construction costs in the U.S. compared to China and South Korea [3][6] - The global top ten shipping companies are projected to face up to $3.2 billion in additional costs by 2026 due to these measures, which may disrupt the normal operation of the global shipping system [4] Group 3: Economic Consequences - The additional port fees are expected to increase shipping costs for U.S.-China trade by approximately 4%, exacerbating inflationary pressures in the U.S. and potentially leading to port congestion and disruptions in supply chains [5] - The U.S. shipbuilding industry is currently at a disadvantage, with projections indicating that only about ten commercial vessels will be built in the U.S. in 2024, while China is expected to complete over 1,000 vessels [6][7]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格集体下跌，主力合约EC2512收跌8.61%，远月合约收跌12-18%不等，幅度远高于 近月合约。最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为1046.50，较上周回落73.99点，环比下行6.6%，现货指标回落但降幅收窄。 欧线结算运价指数为1046.50，较上周回落73.99点，环比下行6.6%，现货指标回落但降幅收窄。此前，马士基官宣10 月中下旬涨价函，远东至北欧海运费为1320美元/TEU和2200美元/FEU，赫伯罗特、ONE联盟、中远海控、地中海航运 等多航司随后跟进调涨运价，国庆期间运价水平较上月同期上涨约15-20%，涨幅较为显著。但地缘端超预期好转，使 得远月运价迅速回落。哈马斯高级官员、首席谈判代表哈利勒·哈亚发表声明宣布达成停火协议。这是各方证实加沙 停火第一阶段协议达 ...

Conference Background - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) approved amendments to MARPOL Annex VI, establishing a framework for mandatory emissions limits and greenhouse gas pricing in the shipping industry, aiming for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 [3] - The "Green Shipping 2025" conference will take place on October 23, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on the maritime industry's green decarbonization transition and strategies for adapting to market changes [3] Organizational Structure - The conference is organized by Jiangxin Maritime and co-hosted by the International Shipbuilding and Offshore Network [3] Key Topics Analysis - Global green shipping trends overview, providing insights into future shipping development and investment directions [9] - Interpretation of international shipping carbon emission policies and regulations, offering authoritative analysis of compliance requirements and potential impacts [10] - Latest advancements in shipping emission reduction technologies, including dual-fuel engines and hydrogen fuel applications [11] - Evaluation of wind-assisted propulsion technology's potential and economic benefits [12] - Discussion on the role of digital intelligence in optimizing green shipping routes and reducing emissions through data-driven strategies [15][16] Practical Pathways and Challenges - Sharing experiences on cross-industry collaboration to promote low-carbon transformation in the shipping sector [19] - Exploration of zero-carbon vessel development roadmaps, including design concepts and commercialization timelines [21] - Insights from shipowners on challenges and strategies in green shipping, focusing on investment decisions and compliance pressures [23]

三、我部将制定具体实施办法。 格隆汇10月10日｜据交通运输部，根据《中华人民共和国国际海运条例》等法律法规和国际法基本原则，经国务院批准，自2025年10月14日起，对美国的企 业、其他组织和个人拥有船舶所有权的船舶；美国的企业、其他组织和个人运营的船舶；美国的企业、其他组织和个人直接或间接持有25%及以上股权（表 决权、董事会席位）的企业、其他组织拥有或运营的船舶；悬挂美国旗的船舶；在美国建造的船舶，由船舶挂靠港口所在地海事管理机构负责收取船舶特别 港务费。有关事项公告如下： 一、对上述船舶，按航次计收船舶特别港务费，分阶段实施，具体收取标准如下（不足1净吨的按1净吨计）。 二、船舶在同一航次挂靠多个中国港口的，仅在首个挂靠港缴纳船舶特别港务费，后续的挂靠港不再收取。同一艘船舶，一年内收取船舶特别港务费不超过 5个航次。 （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请 读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com （ ...

Core Points - The U.S. is set to implement the "301 tariff" measures against Chinese vessels starting October 14, 2025, with the announcement made by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) [1] - The new fees will significantly impact global shipping, particularly affecting major players like COSCO and international giants such as Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company [7] Fee Structure - Starting October 14, 2025, vessels owned or operated by Chinese entities will incur a fee of $50 per net ton [4] - Vessels built in China will be charged either $18 per net ton or $120 per unloaded container, whichever is higher [4] - Car carriers or roll-on/roll-off vessels will face a fee of $14 per net ton [4] - Payments must be made through the U.S. Treasury's official secure payment platform, Pay.gov, prior to the vessel's arrival [4][5] Compliance Requirements - Vessel operators are responsible for determining whether fees are applicable, and it is recommended to complete payment at least three business days before arrival [3] - The required information for the "301 Fee Payment Form" includes vessel name, arrival port, expected arrival date, IMO or official number, voyage number, operator name, tax ID or CBP number, payer's contact details, and payment method [5] Impact on Shipping Costs - A large cargo ship may incur additional costs amounting to millions of dollars, potentially exceeding the profit from two round trips [7] - The new regulations are expected to increase shipping costs by approximately $1,000 starting October 15, 2025, which could equate to a 4% increase in tariffs, exacerbating inflationary pressures in the U.S. [7][11] Chinese Response - In response to the U.S. measures, China announced modifications to its international shipping regulations, allowing for countermeasures against countries imposing discriminatory fees [8] - The Chinese government may impose special fees on vessels from countries that enact such measures and restrict access to Chinese ports [8] Industry Adjustments - Companies like COSCO are optimizing their fleets and shifting routes to mitigate the impact of the new fees, including transferring vessels to other trade routes [9] - Exporters are exploring diversification strategies to reduce reliance on U.S. markets, with some opting to reroute through Canadian or Mexican ports to avoid additional fees [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market shows a pattern of strong near - term and weak long - term. The end - of - year peak season may not materialize as expected due to the double decline in supply and demand in October. The market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and rising bargaining power of shippers" before the new long - term agreement cycle in 2026. The resumption of the Suez route will likely be phased, with the second quarter of next year being the first key observation point. The negotiation between Israel and Hamas has created theoretical possibilities for the resumption of Red Sea shipping, but the shipping industry still faces multiple challenges [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is at 1115, down 6.97% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1087, down 2.93%. Rates for various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe all decreased, with declines ranging from 4.89% to 10.76% [5]. - **EC Contracts**: Prices of most EC contracts decreased, with EC2506 down 13.05% and EC2608 down 10.57%. However, EC2510 increased by 0.84%. The positions of some contracts changed, with EC2606 and EC2608 positions increasing, while EC2410 positions decreased [5]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 10 - 12 month - to - month spread is - 568.1, up 53.2 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 spread is 282.0, up 192.9; the 12 - 4 spread is 568.1, up 90.4 [5]. Market News - On October 5, 2025, OPEC + announced that eight oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The next meeting on December policies will be held on November 2 [5]. - On October 4, Trump said that Israel agreed to a preliminary withdrawal route in Gaza, and a cease - fire would take effect after Hamas' confirmation. A prisoner exchange will also be initiated [6]. - On October 1, the US federal government "shut down" for the first time in nearly 7 years due to the Senate's rejection of the appropriation bill [6]. - On October 4, the Kriskii refinery in Russia's Leningrad Oblast was attacked by drones and caught fire. The fire has been extinguished, and seven drones were destroyed [7]. - On October 1, US media reported that the Trump administration agreed to provide intelligence to Ukraine to support long - range attacks on Russian energy facilities [7]. - The Nikkei 225 index rose 4.8% to 47,944.76 points, and the Topix index rose 3.1%. The yen weakened significantly against the US dollar, breaking through the key level of 150 [7]. EC Market Analysis - **Spot Price**: In early October, GEMINI prices dropped to 1500, QA to 1500, RA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The overall quoted price range in late October is between 2000 - 2200, and there are rumors of continued price support [8]. - **Logic**: In late September, shipping companies cut prices to grab cargo, and freight rates dropped to $1300/FEU. In October, supply and demand both decreased, and the market is likely to return to the off - season. Shipping companies' price increase announcements may not be implemented, and key factors to monitor include price increase implementation, peak - season cargo volume, and shipping companies' attitude towards price support [9]. - **Strategy**: A long - short spread strategy between the 10 - month and 12 - month contracts is recommended [10].

股票代码股票名称持仓占比持仓股数（股）持仓市值（元）01919中远海控6.96%323.70万4026.50万 00316东方海外国际3.21%15.25万1855.23万00998中信银行3.06%259.90万1772.88万00857中国石油股份 2.57%241.80万1488.44万06818中国光大银行2.52%407.50万1456.75万00598中国外运2.51%401.00万 1455.45万01288农业银行2.48%281.20万1436.07万00883中国海洋石油2.40%85.90万1388.12万00939建设 银行2.37%190.10万1373.02万01398工商银行2.29%233.90万1326.76万 流动性方面，截止10月10日，港股央企红利ETF（159333）近20个交易日累计成交金额5.52亿元，日均 成交金额2758.57万元；今年以来，185个交易日，累计成交金额73.28亿元，日均成交金额3960.97万 元。 港股央企红利ETF（159333）现任基金经理为杨坤。杨坤自2024年8月21日管理（或拟管理）该基金， 任职期内收益40.70%。 最新定期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously declining, and there may be a full - scale cease - fire. The far - month contracts have significantly declined, meeting the daily report's expectations. It is not recommended to continue adding positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [5]. - Pay attention to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Shipping Indexes - On October 6, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1046.50 points, a 6.6% decline from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 876.82 points, a 4.8% decline [3]. - On September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 717.36 points, an 8.47% decline; for the European route, it was 614.14 points, an 8.83% decline; for the US - West route, it was 868.22 points, an 8.11% decline [3]. - On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1114.52 points, a decline of 83.69 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 971 USD/TEU, a 7.70% decline; the SCFI US - West route was 1460 USD/FEU, a 10.76% decline [3]. - On September 26, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1087.41 points, a 2.9% decline; for the European route, it was 1401.91 points, a 4.7% decline; for the US - West route, it was 824.92 points, a 2.4% increase [3]. b. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the September manufacturing PMI flash was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The services PMI flash rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The September composite PMI flash was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sentiment. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [4]. - In the US, the September S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (August final value: 53); the services PMI flash was 53.9 (August final value: 54.5); the composite PMI flash was 53.6 (August final value: 54.6) [4]. c. Market Situation and Strategies - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The spot price has slightly decreased [5]. - On October 9, the main contract 2512 closed at 1688.0, a 1.81% decline, with a trading volume of 41,500 lots and an open interest of 24,200 lots, an increase of 3451 lots from the previous day [5]. - During the holiday, the SCFIS index continued to decline, and the Israel - Palestine situation showed signs of easing, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market and wide - range fluctuations [5]. - **Short - term strategy**: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger, in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [6]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - **Long - term strategy**: All contracts are advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to pull back and stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. d. Geopolitical News - On October 9, Palestinian President Abbas welcomed the efforts to reach a cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip, which includes cease - fire, Israeli withdrawal, and access to humanitarian aid. He hopes the agreement can pave the way for a permanent political solution and end the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory [7]. - On the same day, the Israeli Defense Forces said they had evaluated the situation overnight, and the IDF Chief of Staff instructed the troops to prepare for various situations, welcomed the agreement on the return of the detained persons, and would continue to act to achieve the military operation goals in the Gaza Strip [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the spot freight rates on European routes continued to decline. However, with shipping companies announcing cancellations during the National Day holiday and price increases for mid - to late - October, the bullish sentiment was boosted to some extent, and the futures market fluctuated widely. The overall cargo volume in the market was low, and shipping companies continued to strengthen their efforts to attract cargo to maintain the loading rate of routes. Freight rates on routes such as Europe and North America continued to decline, while the futures market was supported by optimistic sentiment, so the basis between futures and spot prices narrowed rapidly [2]. - As of the end of September, the three - week average of the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) was 1,271.88 points, a month - on - month decrease of 40.43%. The average value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) for European routes in September was 1,123/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 37.48%, and the average value for the US West Coast was 1,913.75/TEU, a month - on - month increase of 4.35%. The average value of the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for European routes in September was 718.28/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 38.42%, and the average value for the US West Coast was 1,091.90/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71% [3]. - The trading strategy suggests that the main contract remains weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to try to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts around 1,600. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [3]. - In October, the booking freight rates in the spot market are expected to continue to decline, and the decline is significant. The SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index has continued to decline sharply. Shipping companies have also continuously lowered their quotes for European routes from late September to October. Therefore, the EC2510 futures price has further declined to a lower level. The basis between futures and spot prices continues to narrow, and it is expected that the month - on - month decline of the SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index next week will reach about 8%, while the EC2510 futures price is expected to have a small further downward space at the bottom [3]. - Future contradictions include: whether the price increases announced by shipping companies for mid - to late - October can be implemented under weak demand is still in question; the Middle East situation remains volatile, but its overall impact on the futures market is gradually decreasing [4]. - On the demand side, the overall demand in the eurozone remains weak. The European Central Bank decided to keep the three key interest rates in the eurozone unchanged. The consumer price inflation in the eurozone remained stable in August, indicating that the European Central Bank can postpone further interest rate cuts to later this year if necessary. The year - on - year final value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August was 8.0%, the same as in July, slightly lower than the expected 2.1% increase, indicating that the recent price pressure in the eurozone is moderate, and demand is neither overheating nor in deflation [4]. - On the supply side, the overall supply of capacity on the Asia - Europe route exceeds demand. Although shipping companies have reduced capacity during and around the holiday according to previous years' practices, the overall market capacity scale is still significantly higher than the same period last year. Therefore, although the market will experience a short - term shortage of capacity after the holiday, it is expected to remain in a loose state overall [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In early September, the futures market rose rapidly, possibly affected by some shipping companies' announcements of cancellations during the National Day holiday and the renewed tension in the Middle East situation. In the middle of the month, as shipping companies continuously lowered spot freight rates and relevant indices continued to decline significantly, the futures market quickly fell. In the late month, although the SCFIS and other relevant indices continued to decline, the futures market rebounded slightly and then fluctuated after the China - US economic and trade talks and shipping companies' announcements of price increases for mid - to late - October [6]. Supply - Demand Analysis of Container Shipping Supply Side - **Capacity Situation**: Recently, although shipping companies on the Asia - Europe route have tried to control capacity through blank sailings, the overall scale of cancellations is lower than in previous years, and the actual capacity supply remains sufficient. Shipping companies are actively attracting cargo to improve the loading rate. However, the global container ship order volume has reached 10.4 million TEU, accounting for 31.7% of the existing capacity, and the scrapping volume is at a low level, indicating significant pressure from the continuous release of new capacity. The supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally, the over - capacity situation has not been effectively alleviated, and market freight rates are still under pressure [12]. - **Port Situation**: The operating conditions of major ports in China have shown signs of improvement compared with last month. Although the throughput of Shanghai Port has continued to decline slightly, the throughput of Ningbo Port has increased rapidly. The port congestion situation has not improved, and the global on - time performance rate has continued to decline [19]. Demand Side - **China's Foreign Trade**: As of July 2025, China's cumulative export volume reached 2.130363 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.10%, and the cumulative import volume reached 1.446849 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%. Among them, the cumulative export to the EU was 317.418 billion yuan, and the cumulative import from the EU was 149.191 billion yuan. The cumulative export to the US was 251.372 billion yuan, and the cumulative import from the US was 85.851 billion yuan. In July, among China's "new three" exports, except for the increase in the growth rate of electric vehicles compared with the same period in 2024, the others still decreased. Compared with the same period in 2024, China's exports to the EU have increased steadily, while imports have decreased year - on - year. China's trade with the US has been mainly affected by continuous US tariffs, and both imports and exports have continued to decline compared with the same period [29]. - **Foreign Trade in Europe and the US**: The preliminary value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line again, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding expectations of 50.5. The preliminary value of the eurozone's composite PMI in September was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in September was - 9.2, with an expected value of - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in September was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [31]. - The online quotes of ONE for the first ten - day period of October have been further adjusted downward to $1,235/FEU, and other shipping companies have also maintained a low level of $1,400/FEU. However, shipping companies have announced price increase plans for after mid - October, and it is currently announced that the price will rise to around $2,000/FEU. Whether the price increase can be implemented depends on the post - holiday loading situation. At the same time, the price increase situation will also affect the medium - to long - term freight rate level, and there is still uncertainty in the market [33]. Summary No relevant content provided other than the above - mentioned information in the summary section.