22002255年年44月月2211日日--22002255年年44月月2255日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周中美关税战有缓和迹象推动风险偏好回升，A股延续反弹，黄金冲高回落，债市平稳运 行，全球股市普遍上涨。具体来看，本周市场有以下几个重要方面： 01 本周市场延续反弹，上半周上涨，下半周在指数点位接近修复4月7日跳空缺口时，市场有所 犹豫、走势震荡。基本面方面，A股上市公司一季报披露进入高峰期，对市场整体未形成显 著影响。流动性方面，沪深两市日均成交额近1.12万亿元，相比上周有明显提升。成交金额 的放大代表了流动性的恢复，对流动性反应敏感的小盘表现好于大盘，本周表现从高到低依 次为国证2000、中证1000、中证500、沪深300。从行业表现看，汽车、美容护理、基础 护工表现较好。今日中共中央政治局会议提出了系列宏观政策，要加紧实施更加积极有为的 宏观政策、适时降准降息等。 02 AA股股延延续续反反弹弹，，黄黄金金冲冲高高回回落落 债市方面，本周资金面均衡偏松，债券市场整体震荡为主。本周市场影响因素包括消息面、 债券供给和资金面。消息面较多，小作文传政治局会议地产政策以及美国表态降低对华关税 等， ...

以下文章来源于36氪财经 ，作者丁卯 郑怀舟 36氪财经 . 36氪旗下官方账号。洞见市场，比99%的投资者更聪明。 政策定调进一步增强中国资产韧性。 文 ｜ 丁卯 编辑 ｜ 郑怀舟 来源｜ 36氪财经（ID：krfinance） 封面来源 ｜ 视觉中国 本周，在海外关税担忧继续缓解叠加央行超额续作MLF向市场注入中期流动性的双重利好下，市场整体处于快速波动后的弱平衡阶段，大盘延续了震荡反 弹走势。各宽基指数多数上涨，整体来看，小盘股和中盘股的修复略好于大盘股，但板块轮动和分化依旧加速。周内，主要宽基指数中，上证指数上涨 0.56%；深证成指上涨1.38%；创业板指上涨1.74%；中证1000上涨1.85%；中证2000上涨2.71%。 行业板块上，本周31个申万一级行业涨多跌少，其中24个实现上涨，7个出现下跌。涨幅排名前三为，汽车、美容护理、基础化工；涨幅排名落后的为食 品饮料、地产和煤炭。概念板块上，周内wind热门概念中表现较好的为PEEK材料、光通信、射频及天线等。 政策积极定调， 后续市场机会与风险并存 本周，中央政治局会议召开，明确提出了要"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，而且周内央行加码MLF向市场 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the differing core objectives behind the policies of China and the United States, leading to inconsistent market volatility between the two countries [3][4][10] - The report identifies the underlying issue of capital erosion in the U.S. economy, which is driving economic output outflow, rather than merely focusing on trade deficits and manufacturing repatriation [4][14][34] - The analysis reveals that by the end of 2024, the U.S. net foreign liabilities are projected to reach approximately $26.23 trillion, accounting for about 89.88% of nominal GDP, marking a historical high since the Bretton Woods system [4][23][34] Group 2 - The report outlines the core goals and pathways of "Trump 2.0," indicating that reducing trade deficits will take precedence, with expectations of continued high-tier tariffs and policies to promote domestic manufacturing [5][34][35] - The 4.25 Politburo meeting highlights the importance of "bottom-line thinking" in response to external shocks, focusing on domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and exports to other countries as key strategies [6][39][43] - Investment strategies should focus on "self-controllable" technology and military industries, domestic consumption, and gold as a hedge against external uncertainties, with specific sectors identified for investment opportunities [6][44][43]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.32 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 300 million yuan, up 32.8% year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in the baby care segment and continue to launch new products to capture market share [8] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 35.58 yuan - Total shares: 4.05 billion, circulating shares: 1.03 billion - Total market capitalization: 14.4 billion yuan, circulating market capitalization: 3.7 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 36.53/16.13 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 6.3% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 48.08 [4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 280 million yuan and 40 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 34% and a decline of 13% [5] - In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit were 240 million yuan and 44 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 44% and 25% [5] - The gross profit margin for 2024 increased by 1.8 percentage points to 58.2% [7] - The company expects net profits of 390 million yuan, 500 million yuan, and 604 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 36 times, 29 times, and 24 times [8][11] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from mosquito repellent, baby care, and essential oils was 440 million yuan, 690 million yuan, and 160 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 35%, 32%, and 8% [6] - For Q1 2025, the revenue growth rates for mosquito repellent, baby care, and essential oils were 66%, 11%, and -6%, respectively [6] - Online direct sales and non-platform distributors showed strong performance, with revenue growth of 24.8% and 39.6% in 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.32 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 300 million yuan, up 32.8% year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in the baby care segment and continue launching new products to capture market share [8] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 35.58 yuan - Total shares: 4.05 billion, circulating shares: 1.03 billion - Total market capitalization: 14.4 billion yuan, circulating market capitalization: 3.7 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 36.53/16.13 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 6.3% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 48.08 [4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 280 million yuan and 40 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 34% and a decline of 13% [5] - In Q1 2025, revenue and net profit were 240 million yuan and 44 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 44% and 25% [5] - The gross profit margin for 2024 increased by 1.8 percentage points to 58.2% [7] - The company expects net profits of 390 million yuan, 500 million yuan, and 604 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 36 times, 29 times, and 24 times [8][11] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from mosquito repellent, baby care, and essential oils was 440 million yuan, 690 million yuan, and 160 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 35%, 32%, and 8% [6] - For Q1 2025, revenue growth rates for mosquito repellent, baby care, and essential oils were 66%, 11%, and -6%, respectively [6] - Online direct sales and non-platform distributors showed strong performance, with revenue growth of 24.8% and 39.6% in 2024 [6]

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日，科创50指数跌0.40%，创业板指涨1.74%，大盘价值跌0.30%，大盘成长涨0.89%，上证50跌0.33%，国证2000代表的小盘涨2.38%，汽车、 美容护理市场表现靠前，食品饮料、房地产表现靠后。 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区 域，比如2012/2018/2020年（疫情突发），2022/04/26达到4.17%，2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%，市场迅速反弹，2024/01/19指标4.11%，自2016年 以来第五次超过4%。截至2025/04/25指标3.99%，两倍标准差边界为4.75%。 估值水平，截至2025/04/25，中证全指PETTM分位数48%，上证50与沪深300分别为60%、46%， ...

Group 1 - The April Politburo meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining stability in the capital market, indicating a commitment to controlling downward risks in the A-share market [1][4][7] - The meeting highlighted the need for proactive fiscal policies, focusing on the effective implementation of existing funds and the issuance of special government bonds to support economic stability [6][8] - Monetary policy will introduce new structural tools to support the real economy, particularly in technology innovation, consumption expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade [8][9] Group 2 - The meeting underscored the significance of expanding domestic demand, with a focus on consumer spending and support for low-income groups, indicating a long-term policy direction towards consumption [5][12] - The industrial policy aims to alleviate pressures on enterprises and support the integration of domestic and foreign trade, with a focus on financing support and regulatory improvements [9][10] - The real estate policy aims to stabilize the market through urban renewal initiatives and optimizing existing housing supply, indicating a cautious approach to new land supply [9][10] Group 3 - The report suggests focusing on artificial intelligence and self-sufficiency in technology as key investment areas, particularly in high-end chips and foundational software [12] - The consumption sector is expected to remain a primary focus of policy, with potential expansions in areas like service consumption and trade-in programs [12] - The overall market sentiment is anticipated to improve due to a combination of stable economic conditions and increased liquidity, which may enhance risk appetite among investors [1][4][13]

周四早盘冲高回落后窄幅震荡，多空围绕"关税跳空缺口"反复争夺。周四 A 股早盘出现冲高回落，市场一度出现快速下跌，但午盘企稳后维持窄幅 震荡，多空双方围绕"关税缺口"反复争夺。周四收盘距离所谓"对等关税"宣布前的跳空缺口 3319 点仅一步之遥，市场分歧有所加大，追涨意愿下降，但 A 股的修复行情仍然在延续。从中期角度来看，在中央汇金等三家国资开始增持，叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，市场已经迎来拐点。尽管 "对等关 税"的后续影响还存在一定不确定性，但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理，指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望：关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去，A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映，随着市场 情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，目前 A 股已经进入修复性回升。但修复过程并非一帆风顺，美国对全球范 围加征所谓"对等关税"的后续变化对中国和全球经济产生的影响目前仍存在较大不确定性，市场预期变化也存在反复。后市争议较大的仍然是对海外业务 依赖性较高的行业，如消费电子、CXO 等会受到"对等关税"多大程度的影响。确定性较高的是内需和 ...

今天上午，"宠物双雄" 乖宝宠物、中宠股份双双爆发，股价均创新高 。 "宠物双雄"的表现，只是今年以来A股、港股市场新消费板块的一个缩影。卫龙美味（魔芋制品）、毛戈平（美妆）、蜜雪集团（现代茶饮）、泡泡玛特 （IP潮玩）、老铺黄金（黄金珠宝），还有拉芳家化等老牌国货实现二次焕新突破的个股，今年以来都走出趋势慢牛态势，大部分个股都创出历史新高。 今天上午，A股冲高回落，上证指数下跌0.1%，深证成指下跌0.66%，创业板指下跌0.68%。PEEK材料、美容护理、宠物经济等板块涨幅居前，电力、银 行等高股息资产表现活跃。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 创业板指 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3292.98 | 9869.91 | 1935.84 | | -3.38 -0.10% -65.89 -0.66% | | -13.32 -0.68% | 宠物经济、美容护理板块上涨 今年以来，宠物经济、美容护理两大板块成为新消费领域牛股的集中地。 今天上午，这两大板块双双大涨。宠物经济板块中，路斯股份、天元宠物等个股大涨。两只龙头股 乖宝宠物上涨12.47%、中宠股份涨停 。 | | V | 宠物经济 ...

2025.04. 24 | 板块名称 | 涨幅 | 王力金额 | 板块名称 | 米喝合 | 一切金额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PEEK材料 | +1.80% | -60377 | 新股与次新股 | -3.54% | -3.68 7. | | 电力 | +1.74% | +8.66 7. | 电子身份证 | -3.33% | -5.42 7 | | 美容护理 | +1.59% | +54187 | 华为盘古 | -3.25% | -7.02 Z | | 宠物经济 | +1.59% | +3.11 7. | 注册制次新股 | -3.17% | -3.68 Z | | NMN概念 | +1.22% | +2.36 7. | 通信服务 | -3.16% | -11.70 Z. | | 银行 | +1.06% | -3.27 7 | 软件开发 | -3.12% | -19.77 7 | | 保险 | +0.91% | +1.83 7. | 数据安全 | -3.10% | -29.95 7 | | 维牛麦 | +0.90% | +2.9617. | 科创次新股 ...