重点行业PMI稳中有升 产需指数同步扩张 国家统计局数据显示，从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数、新订单指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，原材料库存指数 和从业人员指数低于临界点。 6月30日，国家统计局发布最新数据，6月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。据了解，4月份，制 造业PMI为49%，比上月下降1.5个百分点。5月份，制造业PMI为49.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点。6月份，制造业PMI继续上升至49.7%。 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读表示，6月份，制造业PMI升至49.7%，在调查的21个行业中有11个位于扩张区间，比上月增加4个，制造 业景气面有所扩大。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对21世纪经济报道记者表示，6月制造业PMI较上月回升0.2个百分点，好于季节性。其中，6月生产指数较上月回升0.3个百 分点，6月是传统生产淡季，但今年"淡季不淡"，企业生产仍在加快扩张。 前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理杨德龙对21世纪经济报道记者表示，我国制造业PMI连续两个月出现回升，这反映出当前随 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Revenue Pressure Remains**: From January to May 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% (turning negative from +1.4% in January - April). This was mainly affected by demand - price weakness, short - term base effects, and a sharp decline in single - month growth. Positive signals include a 2.7% year - on - year increase in operating income and a 1.1% growth in gross profit. The equipment manufacturing industry's profit increased by 7.2%, contributing over 40%. However, inventory pressure persisted, with a 3.5% increase in finished - product inventory at the end of May and longer turnover and accounts - receivable collection days [3]. - **Structural Differentiation Intensifies**: In the equipment manufacturing industry, electronics, electrical machinery, and general equipment benefited from "two new" policies, while railway, ship, aerospace equipment was driven by high - end orders. In the consumer goods manufacturing industry, there was significant internal differentiation. Upstream industries were deeply adjusted, and the profit of the automotive manufacturing industry decreased. Private enterprises' profit increased by 3.4%, outperforming state - owned enterprises [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Overall Profit Situation - From January to May 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 27204.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% due to multiple factors such as insufficient demand, falling industrial product prices, and short - term factor fluctuations. The high base of investment income in the same period last year pulled down the profit growth rate by 1.7 percentage points [2][3][29]. - The gross profit and operating income of industrial enterprises increased. The gross profit increased by 1.1% year - on - year, driving the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above the designated size by 3.0 percentage points. The operating income increased by 2.7% year - on - year, creating favorable conditions for future profit recovery [29]. 3.2 Industry Structure - **Equipment Manufacturing Industry**: From January to May, the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.2% year - on - year, driving the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above the designated size by 2.4 percentage points. Seven out of eight industries in equipment manufacturing saw profit growth, with electronics, electrical machinery, and general equipment growing by over 10% [3][30]. - **"Three - Aviation" Industries**: From January to May, the "three - aviation" industries (aerospace, aviation, and navigation) drove the profit of the railway, ship, and aerospace industry to increase by 56.0% year - on - year. Industries such as aircraft manufacturing, spacecraft and launch vehicle manufacturing, and related equipment manufacturing also had significant profit growth [30]. - **Consumer Goods Manufacturing Industry**: There was significant internal differentiation. The profit of the agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased by 38.2%, while the textile and chemical fiber industries were under pressure [4]. - **Upstream Industries**: The profit of coal mining and ferrous metal ore mining decreased significantly, with year - on - year declines of 50.6% and 45.6% respectively [4]. - **Automotive Manufacturing Industry**: The profit decreased by 11.9% year - on - year, and the new - energy transformation could not offset the decline of fuel - powered vehicles [4]. 3.3 Enterprise Types - Private enterprises' profit increased by 3.4% year - on - year, significantly better than state - owned holding enterprises, which had a 7.4% year - on - year decline, highlighting the operational resilience of private enterprises [4]. - Foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profit increased by 0.3% year - on - year, higher than the average level of all industrial enterprises above the designated size [33].

本文字数：2337，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 今年二季度，受到美国关税政策变化的影响，制造业运行短期有所波动，但我国经济展现出了较强的 韧性，在短期放缓后迅速回稳。 国家统计局6月30日发布的6月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点， 连续两个月回升，制造业景气水平继续改善。非制造业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月上升0.2个百 分点。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群表示，6月份PMI指数小幅回升，表明一系列增量政策的效 果继续显现。订单类指数回升反映扩大内需政策效果有所显现；生产指数、采购量指数上升反映企业 生产经营活动有回暖趋势。同时应注意到PMI指数仍处荣枯线下，生产经营活动预期指数仍在下降， 反映需求不足的企业占比仍在扩大，市场引导的需求收缩对制造业生产投资的制约仍然突出。 2025.06. 30 张立群强调，当前宏观经济政策逆周期调节与市场引导的需求收缩正处相互角力的关键阶段，必须坚 持不懈持续加大扩内需各项政策力度，特别要显著加强政府公共产品投资力度，扩大投资规模，有效 有力带动制造业企业订单显著增加，带动制造业生产投资持续活跃。 产需指 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for June is reported at 49.7%, indicating a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, suggesting continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - Among the 21 surveyed industries, 11 are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month, reflecting a broader improvement in manufacturing conditions [3] - The production index and new orders index stand at 51% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities and market demand [3] Group 2 - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods have maintained PMIs in the expansion zone for two consecutive months, with production and new orders indices above 53% [5] - The PMI for high-energy-consuming industries, while still below the critical point, has shown signs of recovery this month [5] - The overall manufacturing PMI and its sub-indices reflect a rebound trend, indicating that internal economic momentum is gradually being released and resilience in economic growth is strengthening [7] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June is reported at 50.5%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [8] - The service sector's performance remains stable, with financial services, capital market services, and insurance industries showing business activity indices above 60%, indicating rapid growth in these areas [8] - The construction sector, particularly civil engineering, has seen a significant rebound, with business activity indices remaining above 55% for three consecutive months, reflecting robust progress in infrastructure projects [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI index in June shows a slight recovery, indicating the effectiveness of a series of incremental policies, despite ongoing challenges in demand and production activities [1][4][11]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of improvement [1]. - The new orders index has returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, increasing by 0.4 percentage points after two months below 50% [4]. - The production index stands at 51%, reflecting stable expansion in production activities, with a 0.3 percentage point increase from last month [5]. - The procurement volume index has also returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points [5]. - Large enterprises show a PMI of 51.2%, indicating accelerated expansion, while medium and small enterprises remain below the critical point at 48.6% and 47.3%, respectively [7]. Price Trends - In June, both the purchasing price index and the factory price index have stabilized, with the purchasing price index at 48.4% and the factory price index at 46.2%, both up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, reflecting continued expansion, with a 0.2 percentage point increase [11]. - The construction industry shows a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in construction activities [12]. Future Outlook - The manufacturing sector is expected to maintain a steady growth trend in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing external trade [8].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][22]. - The production index was 51.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production activities in the manufacturing sector [6][23]. - The new orders index reached 50.2%, rising by 0.4 percentage points, reflecting an improvement in market demand for manufactured goods [7][23]. Group 2: Enterprise Size Analysis - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, remaining above the critical point, indicating robust performance [4][24]. - Medium-sized enterprises had a PMI of 48.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points, but still below the critical threshold [4][24]. - Small enterprises saw a decline in PMI to 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points, indicating weaker performance [4][24]. Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [11][26]. - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, reflecting a recovery in construction activities [13][26]. - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability but with some sectors experiencing reduced activity [13][26]. Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [21][27]. - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to this comprehensive index, standing at 51.0% and 50.5% respectively [27].

Group 1: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - In June, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion in manufacturing sentiment [2] - The production index and new orders index were at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing improvements of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production activities and improved market demand [2] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating significant support for the manufacturing sector, while small enterprises saw a decline in PMI to 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index - The non-manufacturing business activity index reached 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [4] - The construction industry showed a notable increase with a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, reflecting a recovery in construction activities, particularly in civil engineering [4] - The business activity expectation index for the non-manufacturing sector was at 56.0%, indicating optimism among service industry enterprises regarding future developments [4] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an acceleration in overall production and business activities across enterprises [5] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the comprehensive PMI output index, standing at 51.0% and 50.5%, respectively [5]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7% in June, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries from the previous month, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][3] - The production index and new orders index were at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting accelerated production activities and improved market demand [3] - The purchasing volume index increased to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, reflecting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises due to the recovery in production and demand [3] Group 2: Price Index Trends - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index rose to 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, both up by 1.5 percentage points, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market price levels [3] - The increase in prices was influenced by rising international crude oil prices, particularly affecting the petroleum and coal industries, while the black metal smelting and processing industries saw a decline in price indices due to falling iron ore prices and insufficient terminal demand [3] Group 3: Enterprise Size and Industry Performance - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up by 0.5 percentage points, indicating significant support for the overall manufacturing sector, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points, showing improved sentiment [4] - The equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods industries all maintained PMIs above 50, indicating continued expansion, with equipment manufacturing showing particularly strong activity with production and new orders indices above 53.0 [4] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.5%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.1%, with certain industries like telecommunications and financial services showing strong growth, while consumer-related sectors experienced a decline in activity [5] - The construction sector's business activity index increased to 52.8%, up by 1.8 percentage points, reflecting a recovery in construction activities, particularly in civil engineering [5] Group 5: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating an acceleration in overall production and business activities across enterprises [6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to this increase, standing at 51.0% and 50.5%, respectively [6]

Core Insights - In the first five months of 2025, China's industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 2.72 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.1% due to multiple factors, despite growth in gross profit and operating revenue [2][3] Group 1: Profit Trends - State-owned enterprises reported a profit of 870.95 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year, while private enterprises saw a profit increase of 3.4% to 759.25 billion yuan [2] - The gross profit of industrial enterprises grew by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing 3.0 percentage points to the overall profit growth [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector experienced a profit increase of 7.2%, significantly supporting the overall profit of industrial enterprises [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - The aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries saw a remarkable profit growth of 56.0%, driven by advancements in domestic aircraft operations and space exploration projects [4] - Specific sectors such as aircraft manufacturing and rocket manufacturing reported profit increases of 120.7% and 28.6%, respectively [4] - The shipbuilding industry also thrived, with profits rising by 85.0%, particularly in metal ship manufacturing, which saw a profit increase of 111.8% [4] Group 3: Policy Impact - The "Two New" policies, focusing on large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, have effectively stimulated domestic demand and promoted industrial transformation [5] - Manufacturing investment grew by 8.5% year-on-year in the first five months, outpacing the national fixed asset investment growth by 4.8 percentage points [5] - The consumer goods replacement policy led to significant profit increases in smart consumer devices and kitchen appliances, with profits rising by 101.5% and 20.7%, respectively [6]

Economic Overview - Hainan's economy showed stable and positive performance in the first five months of the year, with industrial added value above designated size increasing by 11.6% year-on-year [2][3] - The province's industrial enterprises reported a revenue increase of 6.9% and a profit growth of 23.5% [2] Industrial Growth - The equipment manufacturing sector experienced significant growth, with added value increasing by 73.2% [2] - Major industrial products such as methanol, primary plastic, synthetic fiber polymers, and optical fibers saw notable production increases [2] Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 1099.70 billion yuan, marking a 6.7% year-on-year increase, with a notable acceleration of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The automotive retail sector experienced exceptional growth, with an increase of 76.1%, and new energy vehicle sales surged by 150% [2] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, gas, and water supply) grew by 27%, contributing 5.6 percentage points to overall investment growth [3] - Public service investment rose by 25.1%, and several sectors, including information transmission and software services, saw substantial investment increases [3] Foreign Trade and Finance - Service imports and exports totaled 282.85 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.6% year-on-year growth, with exports increasing by 66.7% [3] - Financial institutions reported a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in loan balances and a 7.5% increase in deposit balances by the end of May [3] Consumer Prices and Environmental Quality - The consumer price index in Hainan decreased by 0.4% year-on-year [3] - The province maintained high environmental quality, with an air quality rate of 96.2% and water quality compliance rates of 100% for water sources and 95.2% for urban rivers and lakes, an improvement of 5.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]