美国5年期国债发行中标收益率低于发行前交易水平。 ...

2/10年期德债收益率利差涨1.598个基点，报+75.435个基点。 周三（5月28日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率涨2.2个基点，报2.554%，日内交投于 2.535%-2.561%区间。 两年期德债收益率涨0.7个基点，报1.797%，日内交投于1.789%-1.812%区间；30年期德债收益率涨3.0 个基点，报3.031%。 ...

Group 1 - The auction yield for the 4-month U.S. Treasury bill as of May 28 is 4.22%, slightly down from the previous value of 4.23% [1]

其实绝大多数人对形势的判断都错了。 从加征关税、技术围堵、制裁企业，到不断叫嚣 "脱钩"。 大家都以为是懂王带着美国想要和我们断绝关系。 但最近一件事，揭开了真相。 今年 3 月，东大 大幅抛售了 189 亿美元美国国债，持有规模降至 7654 亿美元。 这是东大自 2000 年跻身美债前两大持有国之后， 25 年来首次退居全球第三，被英国反超。 减持美债，其实是一个很关键的信号，它意味着此刻 —— 不是美国在和东大脱钩，而是东大，正在悄悄与美国脱钩。 3月份，海外资金买入美国国债的单月净流入为1618亿美元，是2月的1.5倍。 但在东大抛售美债的同时，海外资金却在疯狂买入美国国债， 曾经，我们一直是老美最坚定的 "债主"。 时间回到2008年，金融危机席卷 全球，华尔街风雨飘摇，但当时我们选择坚定地支持美国国债—— 持仓规模一度突破1.3万亿美元，规模首次超过日本，跃居全球第一，撑起了美元信用。 但风向，从2015年开始变了。 随着两个大国之间冲突的出现，我们的战略判断在悄悄发生转向： 对美元体系的信任，不再是无条件的； 对外汇储备的构成，也不再是一成不变。 于是，美债持有比例从高点回落，中国开始温和但持续 ...

Group 1 - The latest auction results for Japan's 40-year government bonds show a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.21, the lowest since July 2024, indicating a lack of confidence among investors in current bond prices [1] - Long-term bond yields in Japan have risen sharply, with 10-year and 20-year yields reaching their highest levels since 2000, and the 30-year yield surpassing 3%, causing significant volatility in the global financial markets [1][2] - Major Japanese life insurance companies reported substantial unrealized losses on domestic bond holdings, with total losses amounting to approximately 8.5 trillion yen (about 60 billion USD), a threefold increase year-on-year [2] Group 2 - The rapid rise in Japanese bond yields may lead to a reversal of carry trade strategies, where investors previously borrowed yen to invest in higher-yielding assets, potentially causing increased market volatility [3][4] - The last significant reversal in global carry trades occurred in July 2024, triggered by pressures in the U.S. stock market and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, leading to a sell-off in risk assets globally [4] - If Japanese domestic interest rates continue to rise, it could trigger a broader increase in global interest rates, as Japanese investors may be forced to liquidate overseas assets to cover domestic bond losses [4][5] Group 3 - The Japanese authorities are aware of the issues surrounding rising long-term bond yields, but resolving these challenges remains complex [5][6] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance has issued a survey to market participants regarding the appropriate scale of government bond issuance, reflecting concerns about current market conditions [6] - The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma in its monetary policy, balancing the need to address rising bond yields while avoiding a return to ultra-loose monetary policies that could exacerbate inflation, which has recently reached a core CPI increase of 3.5% year-on-year [6][7]

Market Overview - The bond market continued to show weakness, with most government bond futures closing lower and interbank bond yields rising slightly by around 0.5 basis points [1] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 58.5 billion yuan in the open market, while short-term funding rates exhibited some divergence [1] Bond Futures and Yields - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.04% to 119.400, while the 10-year main contract remained flat at 108.730 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly continued to rise, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.75 basis points to 1.705% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down by 0.74 basis points to 3.974% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 5.3 basis points to 1.514% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased [3] Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had successful bids with yields of 1.4792%, 1.7059%, and 1.7985% for 1.074-year, 3-year, and 10-year maturities, respectively [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 215.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 58.5 billion yuan for the day [5] - The Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate declining by 4.1 basis points to 1.411% [5] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities indicated that uncertainty may persist in the economic landscape through 2025, with a projected GDP growth of 5% for the year [6] - China International Capital Corporation noted that credit bond supply may continue to recover, while short-term credit spreads are at historically low levels [7]

Group 1 - Japanese government bond auction demand was weak, leading to a significant drop in Japanese bonds and a rise in yields, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 10 basis points to 2.93% [2][5] - The U.S. Treasury yields also rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3 basis points to 4.47%, nearing the highest levels since 2007 [5] - Concerns over U.S. fiscal health are growing due to rising deficits from tax cuts and tariffs, impacting investor sentiment towards the dollar, which has seen a nearly 7% decline this year [8] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector saw a rise in stock prices ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, with notable increases in shares of Samsung Electronics (up over 3%) and TSMC (up over 2%) [5] - Analysts expect strong demand for Nvidia chips in the coming quarters, supported by comments from major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google [5] - Japan proposed purchasing billions of dollars worth of U.S. semiconductor products during trade negotiations, indicating potential growth in this sector [5] Group 3 - The Asian stock markets erased early gains, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.6% and the Nikkei 225 closing nearly unchanged at 37,722.4 points [1] - The price of rebar steel has fallen to an eight-year low, trading around 2,958 yuan, with an 11% decline in price year-to-date [12] - Cryptocurrency markets experienced a downturn, with Bitcoin down by 0.2% and Ethereum down by 1.1% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's unconventional operations have triggered a global financial market response, leading to a temporary alleviation of the "trust crisis" in U.S. assets as indicated by rising dollar, U.S. stocks, and bonds, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields falling below 4.5% and 30-year yields dropping below 5% for the first time since last year [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Japanese Finance Ministry's issuance of a survey to market participants regarding bond issuance and market conditions signals a potential policy shift [2]. - Reports suggest Japan may consider reducing the issuance of long-term bonds to ease market pressure, addressing the recent surge in long-term bond yields [2]. - The combination of the survey and potential bond issuance cuts is seen as a direct response to the global asset sell-off driven by rising Japanese bond yields [2]. Group 2: Effects on U.S. Markets - The demand for U.S. Treasuries has structurally shifted as the potential decrease in Japanese long-term bond issuance compels global investors to focus on U.S. bonds, leading to a significant reduction in asset sell-off [3]. - The decline in long-term bond yields has restored confidence in the stock market, with all three major U.S. stock indices experiencing gains [3]. - The breach of the 5% threshold in 30-year U.S. Treasury yields alleviates short-term concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt and helps restore investor confidence in global assets [3]. Group 3: Underlying Concerns - Despite the temporary market recovery, analysts caution that Japan's actions do not fundamentally resolve structural issues, particularly regarding the sustainability of Japan's fiscal situation [4]. - The risk associated with U.S. debt remains, as recent auctions for 20-year bonds were weak, and upcoming auctions for 5-year and 7-year bonds will be critical indicators of demand strength [4]. - Global risk appetite remains fragile, with potential escalations in U.S. tariff policies or deteriorating economic fundamentals posing risks of renewed asset sell-offs [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Japan's recent market intervention has provided a short-term boost to global financial markets, but deeper issues such as Japan's fiscal sustainability, U.S. debt expansion risks, and sluggish global economic recovery remain unresolved [5]. - The future trajectory of global asset markets will depend on the effectiveness of policy coordination among countries and the pace of economic recovery [5]. - Any policy missteps by involved parties could trigger new rounds of market volatility in this ongoing "confidence game" [5].

Group 1 - The overall bond market is experiencing weakness due to improved market risk appetite from unexpected outcomes in US-China trade talks, leading to a negative impact on the bond market [1] - The 10-year government bond yield has adjusted to 1.7%, with a recent peak of 1.69%, indicating that the current bond market adjustment is nearing its end [1] - The central bank's recent actions, including a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut and continuous net reverse repos, suggest a supportive monetary policy environment, maintaining reasonable liquidity in the market [1] Group 2 - The expectation for new financial policies has cooled, with a focus on accelerating the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing new ones, as the economy shows resilience [2] - In May, the issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a total of 440 billion yuan in new special bonds issued, marking a record high for the year [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to expedite the approval of construction project lists by the end of June, indicating a proactive approach to infrastructure investment [2] Group 3 - The domestic economy continues to show signs of recovery, supported by growth-stabilizing policies and easing trade tensions, which may shift external demand pressures [4] - The bond market is expected to experience sideways movement in the short term, influenced by liquidity, policy, and economic conditions, with a focus on upcoming PMI data and central bank operations [4] - Long-term, the bond market remains in a "bull market" environment, with overall easing liquidity and concerns about external conditions affecting market expectations [4]

一、宏观动态 宏观政策：财政政策更积极，赤字率提至4%，专项债限额4.4万亿，超长期特别国债1.3万亿；货币政策适度宽松，央行一季度净投放3.02万亿元，3月MLF 改革，利率市场化再进一步。 宏观数据：经济景气回升，3月综合PMI 51.4%，投资消费回暖，社融增量创同期新高，但进出口承压，通胀温和，M1-M2剪刀差扩大。 基准利率：10年期国债收益率震荡上行，受经济预期、政策及资金面影响，3月因MLF改革等因素波动。 人民币汇率：对美元升值，对欧元、日元贬值，受中美政策、贸易顺差等因素影响。 二、债券市场 一级市场：发行规模12.19万亿元，同比增21.8%，地方政府债增69.07%，信用债发行降5.07%，成本双降，产业债中公用事业增108.53%，城投债发行收 缩，央企融资提升，民企净流出。 二级市场：信用债成交环比降18.3%，利差整体收窄但震荡大，产业债多数行业利差收窄，城投债仅河北微升，整体收窄30.15bp。 三、违约与评级调整 违约：1家企业首次违约，2家展期，违约金额20亿元，集中于汽车零售和多元金融行业。 评级调整：国内上调10家（城投占半），国际上调3家；国内下调7家，国际下调11家， ...