Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy is reshaping the Chinese new energy industry, focusing on eliminating low-price competition and promoting product quality improvement, which has begun to show positive effects in the photovoltaic, lithium battery, and new energy vehicle sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The new energy sector has faced severe "involution" competition, primarily manifested through price wars, which have eroded profit margins and threatened innovation and sustainable development [2]. - In the photovoltaic sector, silicon material prices dropped over 70% in 2023, leading to significant profit declines, with 39 out of 121 listed photovoltaic companies reporting net losses in the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - The lithium battery industry is also struggling, with prices for lithium iron phosphate materials falling below 40,000 yuan/ton, and some low-end products dropping to 30,000 yuan/ton, resulting in a paradox of technological upgrades without profit growth [2]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives - The central government has initiated a series of "anti-involution" policies since mid-2024, focusing on industry self-discipline and preventing malicious competition, which has begun to yield positive results [4][6]. - Key measures include addressing below-cost competition and promoting capacity consolidation and industry self-regulation in the photovoltaic sector, with recent price increases observed in polysilicon and n-type silicon materials [5]. - The lithium battery sector is implementing diverse strategies, including raising technical standards and limiting disorderly capacity expansion, which are expected to facilitate the exit of outdated capacities and improve profitability [5][6]. Group 3: Market Trends - The new energy vehicle market is projected to maintain rapid growth, with sales expected to reach 15.73 million units by 2025, a 29% year-on-year increase [3]. - However, the automotive manufacturing industry's profit margins have declined from 7.8% in 2017 to 5.0% in 2023, further dropping to 4.4% in the first eleven months of 2024, largely due to price wars [3]. Group 4: Future Directions - The industry is transitioning from price competition to value creation, emphasizing technological innovation, market mechanisms, and global collaboration [7]. - Supply-side reforms and capacity reductions are seen as immediate solutions to address short-term supply-demand mismatches, with major photovoltaic companies announcing collective production cuts [7]. - The lithium battery sector is encouraged to enhance recycling systems and improve resource efficiency, while the new energy vehicle market should shift from purchase subsidies to usage incentives [7][8]. Group 5: Global Strategy - Chinese new energy companies are urged to accelerate globalization efforts, optimizing production and sales layouts to navigate global trade barriers and expand into emerging markets [8]. - The shift from global exports to global manufacturing is underway, with policies in regions like Europe and North America encouraging local investments, which will further drive overseas expansion of Chinese new energy firms [8].

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have released a draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to improve the recognition standards for low-price dumping and address "involution" in various industries, emphasizing self-discipline and the elimination of backward production capacity [1] - The policy aligns with the Central Financial Committee's "anti-involution" initiative, signaling the end of rampant expansion in multiple industries, with sectors like lithium batteries, photovoltaics, steel, and cement leading the charge [1] - The secondary market has seen a recovery in the undervalued battery sector, with lithium battery stocks rising over 16% since June [1] Group 2 - Multiple industry associations have called for an "anti-involution" approach, shifting the focus from price competition to quality and innovation in the battery industry [2] - The competitive landscape for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) is expected to be reshaped, with market share concentrating among leading companies, as LFP production is projected to reach 1.632 million tons in the first half of 2025, a 66.6% year-on-year increase [2] - Leading companies maintain over 70% operating rates, while smaller firms face idle capacity, leading to the accelerated exit of backward production capacity [2] Group 3 - Integrated layout is key to cost reduction in a low-margin environment, with Wanrun New Energy signing an agreement to build an integrated lithium iron phosphate industrial park, enhancing supply chain coordination and cost optimization [3] - Wanrun New Energy has achieved an integrated production chain from raw materials to finished products, focusing on its core business of cathode materials after divesting its mining operations for 315 million yuan [3] - The company is collaborating with CATL to develop high-density lithium iron phosphate products, targeting high-value areas such as fast-charging batteries [3] Group 4 - Wanrun New Energy has improved the density and performance of its lithium iron phosphate products through material structure optimization and process innovation, making them compatible with solid-state battery systems [4] - The company has shipped over 200 tons of sodium battery materials in 2024, with existing production lines compatible with sodium battery production, potentially opening a second growth curve [4] - The top-down anti-involution policy is expected to have a profound positive impact on the lithium battery industry, marking a shift from scale expansion to value creation, with leading companies like Wanrun New Energy poised to thrive through technological innovation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices, after months of decline, is attributed to supply adjustments, policy guidance, and marginal improvements in demand [2][4]. Supply Dynamics - The spot price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 66,800 yuan/ton on July 21, up from a low of 60,000 yuan/ton on June 9, marking an increase of over 11% [2]. - Futures prices also surged, with the main contract reaching over 71,700 yuan/ton on July 22, a nearly 20% increase from the May low of 59,900 yuan/ton [2]. - Regulatory actions, such as the requirement for lithium mining companies in Yichun to compile resource verification reports, indicate a tightening of supply due to governance of illegal mining practices [3]. Market Conditions - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a shift from a price war leading to declining profit margins to a focus on reducing excess capacity and improving industry health [5]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is supported by the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle sector in China and a recovery in European markets, alongside continued demand in Southeast Asia [5]. Corporate Strategies - Companies are responding to rising lithium prices by enhancing technological capabilities to lower costs and improve product quality [6]. - Leading cathode material manufacturers are expected to better absorb the impact of rising lithium prices due to their technological advantages [6]. - The rise in lithium prices may lead to increased industry concentration, benefiting larger battery manufacturers with advanced technologies and supply chain management [6]. Future Price Trends - Short-term forecasts suggest a strong oscillation in lithium carbonate prices, with expectations of a trading range between 68,000 and 78,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Long-term projections indicate a continued oversupply in the lithium carbonate market, with prices likely to face downward pressure, potentially falling to 60,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton by the end of 2025 [9]. Industry Outlook - The lithium industry is transitioning towards a model focused on high quality and sustainability, with companies possessing technological barriers and global market strategies likely to gain competitive advantages [10]. - The current price rebound is seen as a temporary reaction to market sentiment and supply-demand mismatches, with a long-term view suggesting persistent supply strength against weaker demand [10][11].

Core Insights - The report discusses the recently published draft amendment to the pricing law, emphasizing the concept of "anti-involution" and prohibiting dumping prices below cost [2] - The focus is on the recovery of prices within the photovoltaic industry, with expectations for polysilicon prices to return above industry cost levels due to supply-side reforms [2] - The report highlights potential price recovery opportunities across various segments of the photovoltaic supply chain, including silicon materials, solar glass, wafers, cells, and modules [2] Industry Performance - The report provides a performance overview of different industries, noting that the steel industry saw a 20.7% increase in January, 19.1% in March, and 38.2% over the past year [1] - The construction materials sector experienced increases of 18.5% in January, 15.5% in March, and 33.0% year-on-year [1] - The non-ferrous metals industry reported a 14.7% increase in January, 22.1% in March, and 40.3% over the past year [1] - The telecommunications sector had a performance of 13.0% in January, 29.1% in March, and 51.5% year-on-year [1] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw increases of 11.6% in January, 18.7% in March, and 33.0% over the past year [1] Key Focus Areas - The report identifies three main focus areas for investment opportunities: 1. Price recovery opportunities in the supply chain driven by supply-side reforms, particularly in polysilicon, solar glass, wafers, cells, and modules [2] 2. Long-term growth opportunities arising from new technologies, specifically monitoring the progress of perovskite GW-level production lines and the expansion of BC [2] 3. The recovery trends in profitability for lithium battery components, including lithium iron phosphate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and copper foil [2]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy is becoming a new focus in the market, with expectations for a three-stage development: policy anticipation, price increases, and demand expansion [2] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see a supply-demand turning point due to capacity clearance, particularly in the polysilicon and photovoltaic glass segments, with companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd., LONGi Green Energy, Daqo New Energy, and GCL-Poly Energy being highlighted [3] - High-dividend coal companies and turnaround coking companies such as China Coal Energy and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are noted for their potential [4] Group 2 - The stabilization and recovery of bulk commodity prices driven by the "anti-involution" trend will benefit the profitability of bulk supply chain companies like Xiamen Xiangyu, Xiamen International Trade, and Zheshang Zhongtuo [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant advancements and achievements of Shandong Xinwanda New Energy Co., Ltd. in the lithium battery industry, showcasing its role as a "chain master" that attracts upstream and downstream enterprises, thereby enhancing the regional lithium battery industrial chain in Zaozhuang [3][7][9]. Group 1: Company Achievements - Shandong Xinwanda has implemented intelligent upgrades in its production processes, achieving a 95% automation rate in key equipment, a 15% increase in single-line production efficiency, a 20% reduction in product defect rates, and a 28% decrease in overall energy consumption [3][5]. - The company has invested a total of 20 billion yuan in its project, which spans 1,307 acres and is being developed in three phases, with six production lines already completed [5]. - Over the past five years, Shandong Xinwanda has invested more than 13 billion yuan in research and development, focusing on technological innovations that enhance battery performance and safety [5][9]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The establishment of Shandong Xinwanda has attracted eight upstream and downstream supporting enterprises, significantly contributing to the formation of a 100 billion yuan lithium battery industrial cluster in Zaozhuang [7]. - The region now hosts 278 enterprises in the lithium battery sector, with production capacities including 160,000 tons of positive materials, 60,000 tons of negative materials, 260,000 tons of electrolytes, 2.1 billion square meters of separators, and 32 GWh of battery cells [7]. - Recent discussions among leading companies in the industry have focused on addressing key technical standards and quality management issues, aiming to enhance collaboration and resolve bottlenecks in the supply chain [8].

市场人士认为，"反内卷"需要供、需两端同时发力，后续随着各个领域政策出台，推动"反内卷"取得成效，推动相关领域 企业盈利改善，将带动A股走出新一轮行情。目前，行情主要围绕上游钢铁、水泥、煤炭等行业展开，未来有望扩散到能源金 属、光伏、锂电等下游高端制造业。 "反内卷"板块上涨 7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议提出"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能 有序退出"，引发市场各方关注，多部门发声，A股市场也出现积极反应。 7月1日，中国水泥协会发布《关于进一步推动水泥行业"反内卷""稳增长"高质量发展工作的意见》；7月3日，工业和信息 化部部长李乐成主持召开第十五次制造业企业座谈会时提出，"依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产 品品质，推动落后产能有序退出"；7月23日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁主持召开企业座谈会时表示，"推动整治'内卷式'竞 争、拓展产业链供应链合作、促进科技创新、完善公司治理和国际化经营服务等"；7月24日，广东金融监管局二级巡视员黄海 晖在2025年上半年广东银行业保险业新闻通气会上表示，广东金融监管局纵深推进、重拳整治行业乱象，旗帜鲜明反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the phenomenon of "involution" in various industries within the A-share market, particularly emphasizing the midstream manufacturing sector's more pronounced competition compared to upstream resource industries. It notes that the willingness to expand production has significantly decreased across most industries, with over half showing strong capacity for expansion [1][2]. Existing Capacity Utilization Level - The industry capacity utilization rate is calculated using the Cobb-Douglas production function, measuring the ratio of actual output to potential maximum output under given capital and labor factors. As of Q1 2025, most industries are operating at historically low capacity utilization levels, with only the home appliance and electronics sectors showing upward trends [1]. Potential Incremental Capacity Level - The marginal changes in industry capacity will influence capacity utilization trends, particularly the timing of turning points. The willingness to expand production is assessed through the historical ratio of capital expenditures to depreciation. As of Q1 2025, most industries are at historically low levels of expansion willingness, except for utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals, which show relatively stronger willingness. The expansion capacity is primarily determined by current cash reserves and cash flow, with most primary industries at historically high levels of expansion capacity [2]. Historical Capacity Clearing in Different Industries - In emerging industries, the clearing signal is linked to cash capability and a drop in expansion willingness. For instance, the solar industry experienced a rapid decline in capacity utilization from 2011 to 2015, reaching a low point in Q1 2013, followed by two years of low-level fluctuations until significant relief in overcapacity occurred in Q2 2014 when both cash capability and expansion willingness dropped to 0%. In traditional industries like steel and coal, the clearing signal is an improvement in cash capability, with both industries undergoing a prolonged decline in potential incremental capacity, leading to a "V" shaped trajectory in capacity utilization [3]. Current Capacity Clearing Trajectory - Drawing from past experiences, the report discusses the current capacity clearing trajectory. In the renewable energy sector, lithium battery and solar capacity utilization rates have reached historical lows, with lithium's potential incremental capacity and utilization rates declining earlier than solar. Both sectors' expansion willingness is nearing 0% for the first time in a decade, while cash capability remains around historical median levels. Traditional industries, such as steel and coal, are not facing severe overcapacity issues like in previous cycles, with current capacity utilization rates approaching 19-year lows, and signs of improving cash capability in basic chemicals and steel [4].

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to rise, with the Chemical ETF (516020) showing a maximum intraday increase of 1.83% and closing up 1.53% [1] - Notable stocks in the sector include lithium battery, soda ash, and fluorine chemical companies, with significant gains from Hebang Biological (up 4.76%) and Tianci Materials (up 4.03%) [1] - The chemical sector has attracted significant capital, with a net inflow of 26.418 billion yuan over the past five days, ranking second among 30 sectors [1][3] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is benefiting the lithium battery sector, as it leads to project delays and a healthier supply-demand balance [3] - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, facing challenges from increased competition, but supply-side reforms are expected to optimize the industry structure [4] - The current valuation of the Chemical ETF (516020) is at a low point, suggesting a good opportunity for long-term investment [4] Group 3 - The chemical sector is expected to undergo a re-pricing based on cost factors, focusing on green and low-carbon initiatives [5] - Domestic policies frequently emphasize supply-side requirements, while international uncertainties in chemical supply are increasing [5] - The Chemical ETF (516020) provides a diversified investment opportunity across various sub-sectors, with a significant portion allocated to large-cap leading stocks [6]

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate prices have recently rebounded, with futures contracts experiencing an 8% increase on July 24, marking the first significant rise of the year [1] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 70,150 yuan/ton on July 24, up 14.9% from the beginning of the month [1] - The increase in lithium carbonate prices has led to a 10% rise in downstream battery cell product prices [1] Group 2 - The recent price surge is largely driven by market sentiment rather than fundamental factors, influenced by expectations surrounding "anti-involution" policies in the lithium battery industry [2][4] - The "anti-involution" initiative aims to shift competition focus from price wars to quality and innovation, although no substantial policies have been implemented yet [2] - Supply-side uncertainties, such as stricter compliance checks on mining rights, have also contributed to the price increase [2][3] Group 3 - The lithium industry is currently experiencing its second major price fluctuation cycle since 2020, with prices previously peaking at nearly 600,000 yuan/ton in 2022 [4] - Despite the recent price recovery, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance remains, with expectations of continued oversupply in the second half of the year [4][5] - Future price fluctuations for lithium carbonate are projected to remain within the range of 56,000 to 72,000 yuan/ton by the second half of 2025 [5]