Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Glass Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Xuanyi [4] Group 2: Basic Data Spot Market - Prices of various glass products in different regions changed, with daily changes ranging from -20 to 0 yuan/ton and weekly changes from -70 to -4 yuan/ton [3] Futures Market - FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts all increased, with daily increases of 9, 11, and 12 yuan/ton respectively, and weekly increases of 52, 49, and 52 yuan/ton [3] - The position of the main contract increased by 28,591 hands, and the trading volume decreased by 376,898 hands [3] - The number of warehouse receipts remained at 0 [3] Basis and Spread - The basis of FG09, FG05, and FG01 contracts decreased, with daily decreases of 13, 15, and 16 yuan/ton respectively, and weekly decreases of 37, 35, and 36 yuan/ton [3] - The spreads between FG01 - 05, FG05 - 09, and FG09 - 01 contracts changed slightly [3] Fundamental Data - Glass daily melting volume and start - up rate remained unchanged week - on - week, with year - on - year decreases of 8.7% and 9.6% respectively [3] - Glass inventory increased by 3.1% week - on - week and 20.2% year - on - year [3] - Profits from different fuels showed different trends, with natural gas profit down 1.6% week - on - week, coal profit down 9.1%, and petroleum coke profit down 4.0% [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Market Situation - The market prices of glass in different regions changed, with decreases in some areas [5] Important Information - The domestic float glass market price was stable with a downward trend, and the production and sales in most regions were average [6] - Yihai Dabo (Dalian) Glass Co., Ltd. with a designed capacity of 520 tons/day stopped production [7] Logical Analysis - The glass price rose while soda ash fell, and the black varieties weakened, but the main glass contract exceeded 1,000 yuan [7] - The market was trading on the cold - repair expectation of glass, but there was uncertainty, and the price might continue to decline [7] - The policy had limited impact on the post - real - estate cycle products, and the downstream demand was expected to be weak in the short term [7] Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, pay attention to short - selling opportunities during the rebound [8] - For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8] - For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing glass basis, spreads, positions, trading volumes, inventory, and profits over different time periods [9][13]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][67] Core Views - The report highlights that the downward trend in cement and glass prices continues, while urban renewal initiatives are actively promoted. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported that 5,679 old urban residential areas were newly started for renovation from January to April, with over 50% opening rates in six regions [2][11] - Central government financial support for urban renewal is expected to exceed 20 billion yuan, with various local governments implementing measures to stimulate real estate market demand [2][11] - Short-term factors include the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market amid growth pressures and the gradual alleviation of risks associated with major real estate companies, which is beneficial for the building materials sector [2][11] - Long-term factors suggest that the opening of the interest rate reduction channel in Europe and the US may provide more room for monetary and fiscal policies in China, with expectations for policies to stabilize real estate transactions and prices [2][11] Summary by Sections Recent High-Frequency Data - As of June 6, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China is 372.6 yuan/ton, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 4.6% year-on-year [3][12] - The average factory price of glass (5.00mm) is 1,205.7 yuan/ton, down 2.0% week-on-week and down 27.3% year-on-year [3][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubao [4] 2. Undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [4] 3. Leading cyclical building materials companies with bottoming fundamentals, such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, China Jushi, and Qibin Group [4] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 1.82%. The building materials index increased by 0.63% [3][55] - Sub-sectors showed varied performance, with fiberglass manufacturing up by 2.08% and cement manufacturing down by 0.97% [3][55]

【玻璃纯碱（ 】 低位价格弹性大，市场情绪易波动 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-09 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需双弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 产量下降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.68万吨，行业开工率为75.68%，比29日-0.34个百分点；产能利用率为78.14%，比29日-0.47个百分 | | | | | | 点。本周2条产线放水，1条产线点火，但点火产线暂无玻璃产出，整体来看供应量呈现下降趋势。下周1条产线存在冷修预期，2条产线计划点 | | | | | | 火，产量持稳为主。 | | | | 需求 | 偏空 | 需求预期走弱，淡季来临，需求或边际下滑。稳增长压力较大，中期地产颓势难挽，竣工数据同比延续下滑，后市需求担忧犹存。 ...

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/6/9 | | | 2025/5/30 | 2025/6/5 | | 2025/6/6 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/5/30 | 2025/6/5 | | 2025/6/6 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1134.0 | 1121.0 | 1121.0 | -13.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 982.0 | 963.0 | 997.0 | 15.0 | 34.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | 1126.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | FG01合约 | 1043.0 | 1018.0 | 1054.0 | 11.0 | 36.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | 1121.0 | 8.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to cautiously short sell. The 09 contract is recommended for either observation or short - selling with caution, considering the pressure range of 1,015 - 1,035 and monitoring whether the bottom - rising trend continues [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures rebounded from the bottom, mainly due to the cost - logic linkage caused by the sharp rise in coking coal futures, the profit - taking of short - side funds and bottom - fishing by long - side funds after the contract hit a new low, and the rumor of significant production cuts in Shahe. However, the fundamental factors such as supply and inventory of glass have not improved. The traditional off - season and the rainy season this week will still affect downstream demand. Technically, the upward breakthrough is insufficient, and it still faces the pressure test at the 1,000 mark, with a possible subsequent correction [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 02 - 03. Market Review - **Spot Price**: As of June 6, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,160 yuan/ton in North China (-20), 1,070 yuan/ton in Central China (-30), and 1,280 yuan/ton in East China (-20). The futures price of the glass 09 contract closed at 997 yuan/ton last Friday, down 12 for the week [9][10] - **Price Difference**: As of June 6, the futures price of soda ash was 1,212 yuan/ton, and that of glass was 997 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 215 yuan/ton (-3). The basis of the 09 contract was 33 yuan/ton (-32), and the 09 - 01 spread was -57 yuan/ton (+7) [11][16] 04. Profit - **Natural Gas Process**: The cost was 1,598 yuan/ton (-6), and the gross profit was -318 yuan/ton (-14) [17] - **Coal - Gas Process**: The cost was 1,143 yuan/ton (-5), and the gross profit was 17 yuan/ton (-15) [20] - **Petroleum Coke Process**: The cost was 1,208 yuan/ton (-6), and the gross profit was -138 yuan/ton (-24) [20] 05. Supply - The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 159,255 tons/day (+50), with 224 production lines in operation. Two production lines were cold - repaired at the end of the month, and two were ignited and restarted last week, resulting in a basically flat daily melting volume [21][22] 06. Inventory - As of June 6, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,975.4 million weight boxes (+209.2). Among them, North China's inventory was 1,005.1 million weight boxes (-125.9), Central China's was 820 million weight boxes (+54.2), East China's was 1,593.5 million weight boxes (+23.5), South China's was 1,060.3 million weight boxes (+8.2), Southwest China's was 1,300.3 million weight boxes (+41.3), Shahe's factory inventory was 308 million weight boxes (+37), and Hubei's factory inventory was 571 million weight boxes (+43) [34] 07. Deep - Processing - The sales - to - production ratio of float glass last week was 82.22% (-16.58%). On June 6, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.8% (-2.4%). At the end of May, the available order days for glass deep - processing were 10.35 days (-0.05) [36] 08 - 09. Demand - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption of float glass last week was 1,027 million weight boxes, a weekly decrease of 211 [46] - **Automobile**: In April, China's automobile production was 2.619 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.387 million and a year - on - year increase of 0.213 million. Sales were 2.59 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.325 million and a year - on - year increase of 0.231 million [46] - **New - Energy Automobile**: In April, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 0.905 million, with a penetration rate of 51.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% [46] - **Real Estate**: In April, the completed area of real estate was 25.8758 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 28%. The new construction area was 48.3938 million square meters (-22%), the construction area was 66.0961 million square meters (-27%), and the commercial housing sales area was 63.9239 million square meters (-3%). From May 25 to June 1, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.14 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 12%. In April, the real estate development investment was 782.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [51] 10 - 13. Cost - Side - Soda Ash - **Spot Price**: As of June 6, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,450 yuan/ton in North China (-50), 1,400 yuan/ton in East China (-40), 1,350 yuan/ton in Central China (-50), and 1,600 yuan/ton in South China (-25). The futures price of the soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,212 yuan/ton last Friday (+9). The basis of the Central China 09 contract was 138 yuan/ton (-59) [59] - **Profit**: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,438 yuan/ton (-5), with a gross profit of 50 yuan/ton (-17); the cost of the joint - production process was 1,665 yuan/ton (+30), with a gross profit of 178 yuan/ton (-37) [60] - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 704,100 tons (a monthly increase of 19,000), including 382,200 tons of heavy soda ash (a monthly increase of 12,400) and 321,900 tons of light soda ash (a monthly increase of 6,600). The loss was 167,600 tons (a monthly decrease of 19,000). At the end of last week, the exchange's soda ash warehouse receipts were 4,273 (+2,582). As of June 6, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.627 million tons (a monthly increase of 24,700), including 837,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a monthly increase of 46,300) and 790,000 tons of light soda ash (a monthly decrease of 21,600) [76] - **Apparent Consumption**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 351,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 56,600; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 350,200 tons, a weekly increase of 20,400. The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash last week was 99.62%, a monthly decrease of 8.04%. In April, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 24.2 days [79]

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as Beixin Building Materials, Pona, and China Jushi, while recommending "Hold" for Weixing New Materials [8]. Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to experience a "not-so-weak" off-season despite the traditional seasonal downturn, with a slight increase in demand for certain materials [1][2]. - Government debt issuance has increased, which may alleviate fiscal pressure and accelerate municipal engineering projects, benefiting companies like Longquan Co., Qinglong Pipe Industry, and China Liansu [2]. - The glass market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a marginal improvement in demand since March 2025, but overall demand is expected to decline post-2025 [2][3]. - The cement industry is still in a demand bottoming process, with companies increasing production cuts to stabilize prices [2][15]. - The fiberglass market shows signs of recovery, particularly in wind power applications, while electronic fiberglass demand remains strong [2][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - From June 3 to June 6, 2025, the construction materials sector (SW) rose by 0.63%, with cement up 0.38%, glass manufacturing up 1.01%, fiberglass up 2.07%, and renovation materials up 0.24% [1][11]. - The net capital inflow for the construction materials sector was -159 million yuan during this period [1]. 2. Cement Industry Tracking - As of June 6, 2025, the national cement price index was 358.88 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the previous week, with a total cement output of 3.157 million tons, a decrease of 9.81% [15]. - The cement market is characterized by weak demand in infrastructure and residential construction, with a utilization rate of 61.01% for cement clinker production [15][27]. 3. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass was 1250.27 yuan/ton, down 1.63% from the previous week, with inventory levels increasing significantly [3][32]. - The demand for glass is expected to remain weak in June, with prices likely to fluctuate downward [3][34]. 4. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The fiberglass market is witnessing a stabilization in prices, with demand from wind power applications supporting growth [2][7]. - The price of non-alkali fiberglass is expected to stabilize, while electronic fiberglass prices remain steady [6][7]. 5. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market is stable, with production rates at 60.69% and a slight increase in inventory levels [7]. - The demand for carbon fiber is anticipated to grow, particularly in wind energy and hydrogen storage applications [7]. 6. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is benefiting from improved second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with companies like Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials recommended for investment [2][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views Glass - Short - term: The glass market is expected to have a short - term rebound due to low valuation. The spot market has seen improved recent transactions, but the upcoming rainy season may have a short - term impact. - Medium - term: It is a volatile market. Attention should be paid to the real - estate debt repayment peak in June and the suppression of the Hubei warehouse receipts on the market. The upside is limited, but so is the downside. - Long - term: The 09 contract, a peak - season contract, is priced at a large loss, indicating high future volatility. - Bullish factors: Policy support for real - estate acquisition, increased government financial support, enhanced expectations for the completion of pre - sold housing, low spot prices (below the 25% historical percentile), long - term losses of manufacturers, and peak - season expectations for the 09 contract. - Bearish factors: The real - estate market is unlikely to have a substantial improvement, and there is still significant inventory pressure in Hubei, and the trading sector depends on the real - estate market's continuous improvement [6]. 纯碱 - Short - term: The market is expected to rebound due to low valuation, but the spot price is difficult to increase, and the futures increase leads to a weakening basis, resulting in greater delivery pressure. - Medium - term: It is a volatile market. The core factors are high production and high inventory, with limited long - term shortage expectations. The cost collapse pressure is not fully reflected in the price. The expected production reduction in June is weak, but July or August may be the next maintenance peak. - Potential supporting factors: Low price difference between light and heavy soda, good exports this year, and high inventory concentration, but they need the improvement of the glass market to ferment [7]. Summary by Directory Glass: Supply - side Situation Introduction - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 8010 tons/day [10]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 9210 tons/day [11]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 13000 tons/day, with some planned for 2025 and others with undetermined ignition times [13]. - Potential复产 ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7830 tons, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [14]. - Potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7850 tons/day, with various planned cold - repair times [16]. - The glass industry's production reduction space in the first half of the year is expected to be limited, with the current in - production capacity at around 156,000 tons/day, a peak of 178,000 tons/day in 2021, and a recent low of 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day [17][18]. Glass: Price and Profit - Recent transactions have slightly declined, with little overall change. The price in Shahe is around 1140 - 1180 yuan/ton, 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton in Hubei (some manufacturers reduced prices by 40 yuan/ton), and 1280 - 1400 yuan/ton in East China (some manufacturers reduced prices by 20 - 40 yuan/ton) [24][28]. - The futures market has rebounded, the basis is weak, and the month - spread is stable. The spot market is stable, and the month - spread has limited upside due to near - month warehouse receipts [30][33]. - The profit of glass production using petroleum coke as fuel is around - 111 yuan/ton, and that using natural gas and coal as fuel is between - 170 and 91 yuan/ton [34][38]. Glass: Inventory and Downstream Start - up - During the Dragon Boat Festival, weak market transactions led to an increase in inventory across the country. Large manufacturers have better order situations than small ones [41][43]. - The price difference between Central China and Jiangsu and Zhejiang has returned to normal and is widening, which is beneficial for inventory reduction in Hubei [47]. Photovoltaic Glass: Price, Profit, Capacity, and Inventory - Prices are falling, recent orders are slightly decreasing, glass manufacturers' shipments are average, and local inventory is increasing. The price of 2.0mm coated panels is around 12.5 yuan/square meter, a 3.85% month - on - month decline, and the 3.2mm coated panels are around 20.5 yuan/square meter, a 2.38% month - on - month decline [54][56]. - The market is gradually weakening, and it may enter a production - reduction cycle. Market transactions have slightly declined, and inventory has slightly increased, with the sample inventory days at about 29.72 days, a 1.94% month - on - month increase [57][63]. 纯碱: Supply and Maintenance - Maintenance of soda ash has almost reached its peak, and there may be less maintenance in June. The current capacity utilization rate is 80.8% (78.6% last week), and the weekly production of heavy soda ash is 382,200 tons [66][68]. - The inventory is around 1.627 million tons, with 79,000 tons of light soda ash and 837,000 tons of heavy soda ash [75]. 纯碱: Price and Profit - Prices in most regions remain unchanged. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton [84][85]. - The basis is weak in the short term, and the spot market fluctuates within a narrow range. The market is influenced by the impact of delivery goods and maintenance. - The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 178 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is 50 yuan/ton [90].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the significant challenges faced by real enterprises due to global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased volatility in commodity prices and decreased demand [1][2] - The futures market plays a crucial role in stabilizing expectations for enterprises through price discovery and risk management, as demonstrated by a leading glass manufacturer saving over 4.2 million yuan through a "futures + basis trade" strategy [1][2][3] Group 2 - Enterprises are experiencing substantial pressure from rising raw material prices, high transportation costs, and supply chain instability, particularly in the context of differentiated demand and systemic risks [3][4] - The futures market aids in price discovery by providing real-time, accurate, and transparent pricing, which helps mitigate risks associated with price volatility for enterprises [2][4] Group 3 - There is a lack of systematic research and risk management mechanisms within enterprises, making it difficult for them to effectively utilize futures tools for risk hedging [5][7] - The industry is encouraged to adopt digital and customized services to address these challenges, with initiatives like the "Qizhi Hui" risk management platform providing comprehensive support for enterprises [6][7] Group 4 - The futures market faces challenges such as low knowledge dissemination, limited product offerings, and an incomplete support system, which restricts the effective use of futures tools by enterprises [7][8] - Innovative educational approaches are suggested to enhance understanding of the futures market among enterprises, including creative investor education formats and showcasing successful case studies [8][9]

Group 1 - The issuer of the convertible bonds is Zhuzhou Qibin Group Co., Ltd., with a total issuance scale of RMB 1.5 billion, consisting of 15 million bonds [2] - The bonds have a maturity period of 6 years, from April 9, 2021, to April 8, 2027, with an annual interest rate that increases from 0.20% in the first year to 1.00% in the fifth year [2] - The initial conversion price is set at RMB 13.15 per share, while the current conversion price is RMB 6.16 per share [2] Group 2 - The issuer's credit rating is AA+, as confirmed by Shanghai New Century Credit Rating Co., Ltd., and this rating is maintained throughout the bond's duration [3] - The bond trustee, Yongxing Securities Co., Ltd., is responsible for monitoring significant matters affecting bondholders' rights [3][4] - The board of directors of the issuer is undergoing a change, with a total of 1 non-independent director and 3 independent directors being replaced, which constitutes more than one-third of the board [4][6] Group 3 - The new non-independent director is Guan Ming, who has extensive experience in financial and managerial roles within the company [4][5] - The newly elected independent directors include Jean François M. Heris, Xia Yanzhen, and Xu Wuyi, all of whom bring significant industry experience [5][6] - The board changes are considered normal personnel adjustments and are not expected to adversely affect the issuer's daily management, operational performance, or debt repayment capability [6]