E券 CG 宏观动态报告 利润增速磨底,"反内卷"略见成效 2025 年 1-7 月工业企业利润分析 2025 年 8 月 27 日 分析师 张迪 网：zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 铁伟奥 ☎: 136-8324-0373 極: tieweiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060002 研究助理：薄一程 风险提示 1. 国内政策时滞的风险 2. 海外经济衰退的风险 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 8 月 27 日，国家统计局发布：1—7 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总 额 40203.5 亿元，同比下降 1.7%（前值-1.8%）；实现营业收入 78.07 万亿 元,同比增长 2.3%(前值 2.5%)。7 月 利润当月同比下降 1.5%(前值-4.3%), 工业企业利润降幅连续收窄。 工业生产保持韧性,价格和利润边际改善。从量、价、利润率三要素来看, o 7 月生产的韧性是带动企业利润降幅收窄的主要动 ...

Industrial Value Added - In May 2025, the industrial value added of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61% [2][3] - From January to May 2025, the industrial value added grew by 6.3% year-on-year [3] - By sector, mining increased by 5.7%, manufacturing by 6.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 2.2% in May [4] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to May 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 191,947 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [8][9] - The investment in the primary industry grew by 8.4%, while the secondary industry saw an increase of 11.4%, and the tertiary industry experienced a decline of 0.4% [10] - Within the secondary industry, industrial investment rose by 11.6%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 8.5% [11] Retail Sales - In May 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [15][19] - Urban retail sales amounted to 36,057 billion yuan, growing by 6.5%, while rural retail sales reached 5,269 billion yuan, increasing by 5.4% [16] - Online retail sales for the first five months totaled 60,402 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [18] Energy Production - In May 2025, the production of raw coal, crude oil, and natural gas saw accelerated growth, while electricity production remained stable [20] - Raw coal production reached 400 million tons in May, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [21] - The electricity generation in May was 7,378 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [29]

Economic Overview - The GDP of Guangxi Autonomous Region reached 683.39 billion yuan in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 50.67 billion yuan, growing by 4.1%; the secondary industry added value was 224.32 billion yuan, growing by 6.7%; and the tertiary industry added value was 408.41 billion yuan, growing by 5.6% [1] Agriculture - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increased by 4.1% year-on-year [1] - Key growth areas included planting (4.4%), forestry (9.7%), and aquaculture (6.1%) [1] - Significant increases in livestock production were noted, with poultry egg production rising by 32.8% [1] Industrial Production - Industrial output value for large-scale enterprises grew by 8.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing leading at 10.5% [1] - High-tech manufacturing saw a remarkable increase of 30.1% year-on-year [1] - Notable growth in specific sectors included electrical machinery (77.9%) and paper products (48.2%) [1] Service Sector - The service sector's added value grew by 5.6% year-on-year, with profit-oriented services increasing by 12.4% [2] - High-tech service industry revenue surged by 21.4%, with legal services and technology transfer services growing significantly [2] Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with dining revenues up by 4.5% [3] - Notable growth in specific retail categories included cultural goods (63.1%) and home appliances (36.1%) [3] - Online retail sales of physical goods grew by 11.3% [3] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment rose by 5.4% year-on-year, with industrial investment increasing by 18.4% [4] - Manufacturing investment saw a significant rise of 20.2% [4] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.6%, with water management increasing by 73.3% [4] Foreign Trade - Total foreign trade volume reached 187.33 billion yuan, with exports growing by 42.4% [5] - Processing trade saw a substantial increase of 63.4% [5] - Exports of industrial products rose by 35.0%, with machinery and specialized equipment leading the growth [5] Financial Sector - Public budget expenditure reached 165.73 billion yuan, with 78.6% allocated to social welfare [6] - The balance of deposits and loans showed growth of 5.7% and 8.0%, respectively [6] Consumer Prices - Consumer prices overall decreased by 0.2%, with urban prices falling by 0.4% [6] Income and Employment - Per capita disposable income reached 9,221 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.7% [7] - Urban employment figures showed 103,100 new jobs created in Q1 [7]

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 2656 字，阅读全文约 9 分钟 2025年一季度全国规模以上工业产能利用率为74.1% 2025年一季度，全国规模以上工业产能利用率为74.1%，比上年同期上升0.5个百分点。 按消费类型分，3月份，商品零售额36705亿元，同比增长5.9%；餐饮收入4235亿元，增长5.6%。1— 3月份，商品零售额110644亿元，增长4.6%；餐饮收入14027亿元，增长4.7%。 按零售业态分，1—3月份，限额以上零售业单位中便利店、超市、百货店、专业店、品牌专卖店零售 额同比分别增长9.9%、4.6%、1.2%、6.7%、1.4%。 79.3%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业为77.5%，通用设备制造业为78.1%，专用设备制造业为75.6%， 汽车制造 业为71.9% ，电气机械和器材制造业为71.7%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业为74.7%。 (来源:国家统计局 ) 2025年3月份社会消费品零售总额增长5.9% 3月份，社会消费品零售总额40940亿元，同比增长5.9%。其中， 除汽车以外的消费品零售额36610亿 元，增长6.0%。 1—3月份，社会消费品零售 ...