消费市场增长加快。限额以上企业（单位）消费品零售额同比增长8.2%。其中，商品零售额同比 增长8.8%，餐饮收入同比增长1.6%。消费品以旧换新效应明显，家用电器和音像器材类商品销售额同 比增长42.2%，其中能效等级为1级和2级的商品销售额同比增长73.2%；智能手机销售额同比增长 67.4%；汽车类商品销售额同比增长6.4%，其中新能源汽车销售额同比增长33.7%。网上零售高速增 长，限上单位通过公共网络实现的零售额同比增长25.3%，增速高于限上单位消费品零售额17.1个百分 点，占限上单位消费品零售额的23%。 工业生产较快增长。规模以上工业增加值同比增长8.1%。从三大门类看，采矿业增加值同比增长 9.9%，制造业增加值同比增长6.4%，电力、热力、燃气及水的生产供应业增加值同比增长4.2%。从主 要行业看，煤炭开采和洗选业增加值同比增长11.4%，石油和天然气开采业增加值同比增长4%；装备制 造业增加值同比增长9.9%，其中，电气机械和器材制造业增加值同比增长34.1%，汽车制造业增加值同 比增长23.8%。从产品产量看，汽车产量同比增长5.9%，太阳能电池产量同比增长9.4%，发动机产量同 比增 ...

肖小和，余显财，金睿，柯睿 制造业是立国之本，我国制造业规模已跃居世界第一。但我们仍处于工业化进程中，自主创新能力不 强，关键核心技术与高端装备对外依存度高，与世界先进国家有较大差距，需要采取更加精准的帮扶措 施，推动制造业企业稳增长、优结构、提质量、增效益。承兑汇票签发灵活，手续简便，既可以用于制 造业企业支付结算，也可以用于扩张信用解决短期流动性紧张问题。在制造业企业中推广使用承兑汇票 既满足了制造业企业支付结算和融资的需求，又丰富了票据市场的参与主体，可以实现制造业和票据行 业同时健康发展的双赢局面。 一、制造业发展对"十五五"经济发展的重要性及研究作用 票据服务于实体经济方面，2024年全国累计开具承兑汇票38万亿元，其中制造业为11.7万亿元，连续多 年呈现提升趋势，制造业票据签发背书量占比持续超过30%，2024年全国贴现额为31万亿元，其中中小 企业为8.9万亿元，占比29%，制造业票据贴现占比30%以上。可见票据业务早已成为制造企业融资的重 要手段之一。 此外票据在服务中小企业方面，今年仅6月份全市场签发票据的中小微企业10.7万家，占全部签发企业 93.2%；中小微企业签票发生额2.4万亿元 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the CPI has shifted from a decline to an increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2%, which is 0.1% higher than the previous month and slightly above seasonal levels. This change is attributed to rising service prices, higher food price increases, and stable industrial consumer goods prices [19][5][6] - The PPI has also shown signs of improvement, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the first rise of the year. Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.1%, but the decline has narrowed by 0.2% compared to the previous month [19][5][6] - The report highlights that the trade of goods has maintained a steady growth trend, with a 3.6% increase in imports and exports over the first ten months of the year. Notably, exports of electromechanical products reached 13.43 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% and accounting for 60.7% of total exports [22][5][6] Group 2 - The market outlook remains stable, with major indices showing positive performance. The Shanghai Composite Index had a fluctuation range of 1.08%, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A Index showed fluctuations of 0.82% and 0.63%, respectively. This stability is supported by effective domestic demand policies and resilient external demand [24][5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of industry and thematic allocation, particularly in technology and advanced manufacturing sectors, which continue to show high levels of prosperity. Areas such as AI, autonomous control, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, and national defense are highlighted as key focus areas [25][5][6] - The report also notes the ongoing effects of "anti-involution" policies, which are expected to catalyze market movements, particularly in sectors like electric equipment and basic chemicals that are aligned with policy-driven growth [25][5][6]

Core Insights - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 32,611.1 billion yuan from January to August 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [1] - Private fixed asset investment experienced a year-on-year decline of 2.3% [1] Investment by Industry - Investment in the primary industry totaled 646.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [3] - Investment in the secondary industry reached 11,824.6 billion yuan, growing by 7.6% [3] - Investment in the tertiary industry was 20,140.4 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.4% [3] - Within the secondary industry, industrial investment grew by 7.7%, with mining investment increasing by 3.0%, manufacturing investment rising by 5.1%, and investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply surging by 18.8% [3] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) in the tertiary industry grew by 2.0% year-on-year [3] - Notable growth in specific sectors includes water transportation investment increasing by 15.9%, water conservancy management investment rising by 7.4%, and railway transportation investment growing by 4.5% [3] Regional Investment Trends - Eastern region investment declined by 3.5% year-on-year, while the central region saw a growth of 2.5% and the western region increased by 2.3% [4] - The northeastern region experienced a decline of 6.0% [4] Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprises' fixed asset investment grew by 0.5% year-on-year, while investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises increased by 2.3% [4] - Foreign enterprises' fixed asset investment saw a significant decline of 15.4% [4] Detailed Investment Metrics - Overall fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) showed a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [6] - State-owned enterprises' investment increased by 2.3%, while private investment decreased by 2.3% [6] - Specific categories include a 14.4% increase in equipment and tool purchases, while construction and installation projects saw a decline of 2.2% [6]

Profit Trends - From January to July 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 40,203.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%[1] - The operating revenue for the same period was CNY 78.07 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3%[1] - In July, profits decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the previous month's decline of 4.3%[1] Production and Margins - Industrial production showed resilience with a 5.7% year-on-year increase in July's industrial added value, despite a 1.1 percentage point decline from the previous month[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed marginal improvement, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% in July, the same as the previous month, but with a reduced month-on-month decline[1] - The profit margin for January to July was recorded at 5.15%, remaining stable compared to the previous value, with a year-on-year decline of 0.25 percentage points[1] Inventory and Costs - As of July, finished goods inventory reached CNY 6.67 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, indicating a slowdown in nominal inventory growth[1] - The cost per CNY 100 of operating revenue was CNY 85.57, an increase of CNY 0.24 year-on-year, while expenses decreased by CNY 0.08 to CNY 8.38[1] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing saw a profit increase of 18.9% in July, reversing a 0.9% decline in June, with aerospace manufacturing profits soaring by 40.9%[2] - Consumer manufacturing sectors, such as paper and textiles, experienced negative growth, with the automotive manufacturing sector also seeing a profit decline in July after a recovery in June[2] Future Outlook - Future profit trends will depend on the continuation of domestic demand expansion policies and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" measures in manufacturing[2] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring external demand and geopolitical risks, particularly in the context of US-China trade negotiations[2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities emphasizes the importance of regulating low-price disorderly competition in enterprises as a key focus of recent "anti-involution" policies, highlighting the negative impact of excessive competition on prices, as evidenced by the persistent negative Producer Price Index (PPI) since October 2022 [1][23]. Group 1: Current Economic Conditions - China's current economic environment is characterized by a third round of capacity cycle downturn, having declined for approximately four years since the previous peak, with significant industry differentiation due to factors such as the pandemic and trade friction [2][8]. - The industrial capacity utilization rate has been on a downward trend since June 2021, reflecting a weakening in fixed asset investment growth in the manufacturing sector [2][8]. Group 2: Price and Capacity Dynamics - The report indicates that the current supply-side state shows clear differentiation among industries, with black metals and non-metallic minerals experiencing low capacity, output, and price levels, while emerging sectors like electrical machinery and automotive manufacturing still maintain relatively high capacity and output levels despite low price indicators [12][20]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to break the negative cycle of "price for volume" and guide industries back to a normal capacity cycle, with two potential paths: either a slight price increase leading to natural demand decline or significant demand stimulation with substantial price increases [21][23]. Group 3: Recent Price Trends - Recent data shows that low-priced goods below historical median prices have seen significant price increases, particularly in sectors such as black metals (coking coal, steel), new energy (polysilicon, lithium), and chemicals [28][29]. - Specific price changes include coking coal increasing by 36.6% over the past month and polysilicon rising by 23.2%, indicating a recovery in certain sectors [29]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The report outlines recent policy measures aimed at preventing low-cost competition, including the introduction of a price law amendment and the emphasis on market regulation to maintain fair competition and quality standards [25][23]. - The focus on price mechanisms and the establishment of benchmark costs in key industries is expected to support the recovery of prices and stabilize market conditions [23][25].

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with a 5.2% growth in the second quarter and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q2 [2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors showing growth rates of 6.0%, 7.0%, and 1.9% respectively [4] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 248,654 billion yuan, growing by 2.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 11.2% [10] Industrial Performance - In June, the industrial added value increased by 6.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 1 percentage point from the previous month [2] - Advanced manufacturing and high-tech industries are driving the industrial growth, with equipment manufacturing growing by 10.2% and high-tech manufacturing by 9.5% [4] - The industrial production momentum may weaken in the second half due to export constraints, with expectations of a gradual slowdown in industrial growth [5] Consumer Market - The retail sales of consumer goods in June grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [7] - The total retail sales for the first half reached 245,458 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, indicating a positive trend supported by various consumption policies [7][8] - The growth in service consumption and the emergence of new consumption models are notable trends in the consumer market [8] Investment Trends - The investment structure is improving, with manufacturing investment growing by 7.5% and accounting for 25.2% of total fixed asset investment [10] - Despite a nominal decline in investment growth, the actual growth rate remains stable when adjusted for price factors [10][11] - The government is expected to enhance investment through special bonds and long-term treasury bonds to support infrastructure projects [11][12]

Industrial Value Added - In May 2025, the industrial value added of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61% [2][3] - From January to May 2025, the industrial value added grew by 6.3% year-on-year [3] - By sector, mining increased by 5.7%, manufacturing by 6.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 2.2% in May [4] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to May 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 191,947 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [8][9] - The investment in the primary industry grew by 8.4%, while the secondary industry saw an increase of 11.4%, and the tertiary industry experienced a decline of 0.4% [10] - Within the secondary industry, industrial investment rose by 11.6%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 8.5% [11] Retail Sales - In May 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [15][19] - Urban retail sales amounted to 36,057 billion yuan, growing by 6.5%, while rural retail sales reached 5,269 billion yuan, increasing by 5.4% [16] - Online retail sales for the first five months totaled 60,402 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [18] Energy Production - In May 2025, the production of raw coal, crude oil, and natural gas saw accelerated growth, while electricity production remained stable [20] - Raw coal production reached 400 million tons in May, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [21] - The electricity generation in May was 7,378 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [29]

Economic Overview - The GDP of Guangxi Autonomous Region reached 683.39 billion yuan in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 50.67 billion yuan, growing by 4.1%; the secondary industry added value was 224.32 billion yuan, growing by 6.7%; and the tertiary industry added value was 408.41 billion yuan, growing by 5.6% [1] Agriculture - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increased by 4.1% year-on-year [1] - Key growth areas included planting (4.4%), forestry (9.7%), and aquaculture (6.1%) [1] - Significant increases in livestock production were noted, with poultry egg production rising by 32.8% [1] Industrial Production - Industrial output value for large-scale enterprises grew by 8.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing leading at 10.5% [1] - High-tech manufacturing saw a remarkable increase of 30.1% year-on-year [1] - Notable growth in specific sectors included electrical machinery (77.9%) and paper products (48.2%) [1] Service Sector - The service sector's added value grew by 5.6% year-on-year, with profit-oriented services increasing by 12.4% [2] - High-tech service industry revenue surged by 21.4%, with legal services and technology transfer services growing significantly [2] Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with dining revenues up by 4.5% [3] - Notable growth in specific retail categories included cultural goods (63.1%) and home appliances (36.1%) [3] - Online retail sales of physical goods grew by 11.3% [3] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment rose by 5.4% year-on-year, with industrial investment increasing by 18.4% [4] - Manufacturing investment saw a significant rise of 20.2% [4] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.6%, with water management increasing by 73.3% [4] Foreign Trade - Total foreign trade volume reached 187.33 billion yuan, with exports growing by 42.4% [5] - Processing trade saw a substantial increase of 63.4% [5] - Exports of industrial products rose by 35.0%, with machinery and specialized equipment leading the growth [5] Financial Sector - Public budget expenditure reached 165.73 billion yuan, with 78.6% allocated to social welfare [6] - The balance of deposits and loans showed growth of 5.7% and 8.0%, respectively [6] Consumer Prices - Consumer prices overall decreased by 0.2%, with urban prices falling by 0.4% [6] Income and Employment - Per capita disposable income reached 9,221 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.7% [7] - Urban employment figures showed 103,100 new jobs created in Q1 [7]

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 2656 字，阅读全文约 9 分钟 2025年一季度全国规模以上工业产能利用率为74.1% 2025年一季度，全国规模以上工业产能利用率为74.1%，比上年同期上升0.5个百分点。 按消费类型分，3月份，商品零售额36705亿元，同比增长5.9%；餐饮收入4235亿元，增长5.6%。1— 3月份，商品零售额110644亿元，增长4.6%；餐饮收入14027亿元，增长4.7%。 按零售业态分，1—3月份，限额以上零售业单位中便利店、超市、百货店、专业店、品牌专卖店零售 额同比分别增长9.9%、4.6%、1.2%、6.7%、1.4%。 79.3%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业为77.5%，通用设备制造业为78.1%，专用设备制造业为75.6%， 汽车制造 业为71.9% ，电气机械和器材制造业为71.7%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业为74.7%。 (来源:国家统计局 ) 2025年3月份社会消费品零售总额增长5.9% 3月份，社会消费品零售总额40940亿元，同比增长5.9%。其中， 除汽车以外的消费品零售额36610亿 元，增长6.0%。 1—3月份，社会消费品零售 ...