Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted its assessment of the external economic environment from "weakened" to "insufficient," indicating a more cautious outlook on global economic growth [2] - The PBOC's recent meeting emphasized the need for a moderately accommodative monetary policy to address domestic economic challenges, particularly the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand [3] Monetary Policy - The meeting called for the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy, with an emphasis on enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [3] - The focus has shifted from "increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation" to "leveraging the integrated effects of incremental and stock policies" [3] - The PBOC aims to maintain ample liquidity, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [3] Tools and Instruments - The PBOC's toolbox for monetary policy has become more diverse, with a range of liquidity injection tools available, including long-term reserve requirement ratio cuts and various market operations [4] - The meeting suggested strengthening the guidance of central bank policy rates and improving the transmission mechanism of market-based interest rates [4] Market Stability - The PBOC emphasized the importance of maintaining stability in the capital market and suggested utilizing various financial instruments to support this goal [4] - There was a continued focus on enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilizing market expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [4]

近日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开 2025年第四季度（总第111次）例会 。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法組 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行会计 | 支付体系 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 反洗钱 | 党建工作 | | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音頻视頻 | 市场动态 | 网上展厅 | 报告下载 | 报刊年整 | | | 网送文告 | 办事大厅 | 在线申报 | 下载中心 | 网上调查 | 意见征集 | 金融知识 | 关于我们 | | | | | | 2025年12月24日 星期三 我的位置:首页 > 沟通交流 > 新闻 | | | | | | | ...

编者按： "十五五"开局之年，适度宽松的货币政策要努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升，这首先要求明年金融总 量保持合理增长，充分满足实体经济融资需求。社会融资规模、广义货币供应量（M2）是观测金融总 量的主要指标，也是当前我国货币政策主要的中间变量。尽管近年来央行多次强调将不断优化货币政策 中间变量，淡化对数量目标的关注，把金融总量更多作为观测性、参考性、预期性指标，但短期看，推 动社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，依然是观测金融支持实体 经济是否"给力"的重要参考。 今年以来，社会融资规模、货币供应量增速水平始终高于名义经济增速，明年仍有基础继续保持平稳增 长。基础来自哪里？来自继续实施更加积极的财政政策，来自推动投资止跌回稳，来自居民消费需求持 续恢复，来自直接融资市场迅速发展。 货币政策工具也不只是降准降息，近年来货币政策工具特别是流动性投放工具更加多样，期限分布更趋 合理。长期有降准、国债买卖工具，中期有中期借贷便利（MLF）、买断式逆回购操作等工具，短期 有公开市场7天期逆回购、临时隔夜正、逆回购等工具。鉴于新的一年国债、地方政府专项债券等政府 债券将保持较大发行规模，央 ...

货币政策工具也不只是降准降息，近年来货币政策工具特别是流动性投放工具更加多样，期限分布更趋合理。 长期有降准、国债买卖工具，中期有中期借贷便利（MLF）、买断式逆回购操作等工具，短期有公开市场7天 期逆回购、临时隔夜正、逆回购等工具。鉴于新的一年国债、地方政府专项债券等政府债券将保持较大发行规 模，央行有必要通过多种流动性投放工具营造适宜的流动性环境，引导金融机构加大对重点领域、薄弱环节的 支持力度。 编者按： 日前召开的中央经济工作会议，明确了明年经济工作的总体要求和政策取向，部署了明年经济工 作"八个坚持"的重点任务，抓住关键、纲举目张。为深入学习贯彻会议精神，本报即日起推出"落实 会议部署 问答中国经济"系列述评，围绕发展目标设定、赤字规模安排、推动投资企稳等10个方面 热点问题展开讨论，敬请关注。 "把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"是今年中央经济工作会议的新提法。在上述总 体目标下，明年如何灵活高效地运用多种货币政策工具备受外界关注。 "十五五"开局之年，适度宽松的货币政策要努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升，这首先要求明年金融总量保持 合理增长，充分满足实体经济融资需求。社会融资 ...

Group 1 - The central bank is expected to restart government bond trading operations, which may lead to a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in the fourth quarter, indicating a potential increase in the use of quantity-based monetary policy tools [1][2][9] - The recent meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China focused on financial market operations and government bond issuance management, highlighting the importance of stabilizing the bond market [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the central bank's decision to resume bond trading is influenced by the need to stabilize bond prices amid recent market fluctuations and to enhance the flexibility of monetary policy tools [2][4][11] Group 2 - The central bank's previous bond trading operations effectively stabilized market interest rates and maintained a reasonable yield curve, preventing market distortions [4][5] - Since January, the central bank has paused bond trading operations, leading to a significant increase in bond prices and a decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping below 1.6% [6][10] - The tightening of the funding environment, coupled with high government bond issuance and the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit, has increased pressure on liquidity, prompting expectations for the resumption of bond trading [11]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2023, utilizing various tools to maintain ample liquidity and support economic recovery [1][2][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has employed multiple monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratios, open market operations, Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), and re-lending to ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system [1][2]. - In the first half of the year, the PBOC conducted 7-day reverse repos and, when necessary, 14-day reverse repos to meet the needs of primary dealers, injecting a total of 2.6 trillion yuan across the Spring Festival period [2]. - The MLF operations totaled 23.5 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding system introduced in March [2][3]. Group 2: Liquidity Management - The PBOC has introduced a buyout-style reverse repo operation to fill the gap between 7-day reverse repos and 1-year MLF, enhancing liquidity management precision [3]. - As of now, the PBOC has conducted 47 trillion yuan in 3-month buyout reverse repos and 25 trillion yuan in 6-month buyout reverse repos this year [3]. - The PBOC has also utilized the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) to provide short-term liquidity support to local financial institutions, with a total of 240.82 billion yuan in SLF operations in the first five months [4]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Experts predict that the PBOC will continue to adopt a loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, with potential for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [5][6]. - The anticipated interest rate cut could range from 10 to 30 basis points, while reserve requirement ratio cuts may be between 25 to 50 basis points [5]. - There is a possibility of resuming government bond trading operations in the second half of the year, depending on market conditions [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy despite a net withdrawal of liquidity through reverse repos in May, indicating a stable liquidity environment in the banking system [2][4]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - In May, the PBOC conducted a total of 700 billion yuan in reverse repo operations, consisting of 400 billion yuan for 3-month terms and 300 billion yuan for 6-month terms, resulting in a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan due to 900 billion yuan of 3-month reverse repos maturing [2]. - The reliance on Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) has increased since the introduction of reverse repos, with MLF operations maintaining monthly net injections since March [4]. - Financial institutions are expected to benefit from the PBOC's increased use of MLF, which provides stable liquidity and meets diverse funding needs [4]. Group 2: Government Bond Transactions - The PBOC has paused government bond purchases since January to avoid impacting investor allocations, as the 10-year government bond yield fell below 1.6% [6]. - The central bank plans to resume government bond transactions in July or August, as the net financing of government debt is expected to peak during that period [7]. - Resuming government bond transactions is seen as urgent to enhance the central bank's holdings of government debt and to support the establishment of a sovereign credit model for currency issuance [7].

Group 1: Monetary Credit Overview - The monetary credit and social financing scale have shown reasonable growth, with M2 increasing by 7.0% year-on-year and social financing stock growing by 8.4% as of the end of March [10][38][42] - New corporate loans and personal housing loan rates have decreased year-on-year, with specialized loans for small and medium enterprises and inclusive micro-loans growing faster than the overall loan growth rate [10][25][29] - The RMB exchange rate has remained stable at a reasonable equilibrium level, with the mid-price against the US dollar at 7.1782 yuan at the end of March, roughly unchanged from the end of the previous year [10][44] Group 2: Monetary Policy Operations - The central bank has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to maintain ample liquidity and optimize credit policy service quality [8][50] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adjusted the bidding method for the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and improved the macro-prudential framework to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy [8][54] - The PBOC has also focused on preventing and resolving financial risks while enhancing cross-border trade and investment service capabilities [8][50] Group 3: Financial Market Performance - The financial market has remained stable overall, with an increase in bond issuance and a significant rise in stock market trading volume and fundraising [2][3] - The issuance rate of government bonds has decreased, while corporate bond issuance rates have increased, indicating a mixed performance in the bond market [2][3] - Insurance premiums and assets have increased year-on-year, and there has been a rise in both spot and forward foreign exchange trading volumes [2][3] Group 4: Macroeconomic Situation - The global economic growth momentum is weakening, but China's economy has shown a good start with a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter [2][11] - Consumption growth has rebounded, investment levels have stabilized, and both imports and exports have continued to grow, indicating a positive trend across agriculture, industry, and services [2][11] - The overall employment situation remains stable, and the international balance of payments is maintained at a basic equilibrium [2][11] Group 5: Monetary Policy Trends - The PBOC aims to maintain reasonable growth in financing and monetary supply, with a focus on guiding credit policy to support economic recovery [5][12] - The next phase will involve implementing a moderately loose monetary policy while balancing short-term and long-term goals, as well as internal and external equilibria [11][12] - The PBOC will continue to deepen financial reform and promote high-quality financial development while ensuring the stability of the financial system [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to enhance and diversify its monetary policy tools to better support high-quality economic development, with a focus on guiding the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) back to its fundamental role as a mid-term liquidity tool [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC's liquidity toolbox is currently well-stocked, with a more reasonable distribution of maturities [1] - Long-term tools include reserve requirement ratio cuts and government bond transactions, while mid-term tools consist of MLF, reverse repos, and various structural instruments [1] - Short-term tools involve 7-day reverse repos and temporary overnight repos, indicating a comprehensive approach to liquidity management [1] Group 2: MLF Focus - The MLF's role has become clearer, primarily aimed at providing one-year liquidity, with its balance significantly decreasing [1] - The PBOC plans to continue refining the methods of basic currency issuance to ensure that MLF aligns with its intended mid-term liquidity provision [1] - The goal is to create a multi-faceted tool structure that maintains ample liquidity while supporting economic growth [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and boosting economic growth in response to the current complex economic situation in China [2][4] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, which is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, thereby increasing market liquidity and reducing financing costs for enterprises [2][4] - A series of support measures for small and micro enterprises have been proposed, including increasing re-lending quotas and optimizing financing coordination mechanisms to alleviate financing difficulties [2][3] Group 2 - The adjustment of the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points is aimed at enhancing the consumer support function of the provident fund loans, especially in the context of declining commercial loan rates [3] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has indicated plans to introduce a series of financing systems that align with new models of real estate development, which may lead to increased support for development and mortgage loans [3][4] - The introduction of two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, including securities, fund, and insurance company swap facilities, as well as stock repurchase and increase re-lending, is expected to provide ongoing support for market stability [4]