港股研究丨公司深度丨农夫山泉（9633.HK） [Table_Title] 农夫山泉深度报告：山泉为上，农夫饮茶 %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 农夫山泉作为中国软饮料行业领军企业，其在产品、品牌、营销、渠道上均颇有建树。农夫山 泉的本质是推动饮料行业价格链"通胀"，通过推出高品质、高价格产品，为上游供应链和经销 商创造丰厚利润，实现上下游利益绑定。本文从公司产业布局、营销能力、渠道模式三大维度 进行拆解，解读农夫山泉的常青之道。同时，我们认为公司已逐步走出舆论影响且有望顺势提 高市占率，增强公司影响力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 冯萱 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490524060001 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 30 research.95579.com 2 农夫山泉（9633.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 农夫山泉深度报告：山泉为上，农夫饮茶 [Table_Summary2] 农夫山泉：始于微末，发于华枝 ...

全球快消品市场 格局演变洞察 RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ 目录 01 快消品行业概述 02 全球快消品市场现状 RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ 03 快消品行业发展趋势 04 快消品市场竞争格局 目录 RUNLINDA&LI 05 快消品行业渠道变革 06 快消品企业应对策略 07 快消品行业未来展望 08 案例分析 RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a gradual bottoming out for the liquor sector and a positive outlook for consumer goods [2]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out with significant structural differentiation among companies, while the consumer goods sector is recovering from a downturn [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting that new market scenarios and product categories present structural investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Signs of Bottoming Out and Structural Differentiation - The liquor industry experienced a slowdown in Q4 2024, but maintained positive growth in Q1 2025 despite high base effects, with significant differentiation among companies [7]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are outperforming the market, with Moutai's revenue growth at 10.7% and profit growth at 11.6% in Q1 2025 [12][16]. - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in 2024 was 4,417.7 billion, with a growth rate of 7.7%, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 1,533.6 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.8% [12][15]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Recovery and Bright Spots - The consumer goods sector, including dairy and beer, is showing signs of recovery, with revenue and profit growth of 2.4% and 8.4% respectively in Q1 2025 [4][16]. - New channels and product categories are driving growth in snacks and beverages, with companies like Dongpeng and Nongfu showing strong performance [4][16]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer goods sector, with expectations of a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the latter half of the year [4][16]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the liquor sector, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery phase [4][16]. - For consumer goods, it suggests investing in snack and beverage companies that are leveraging new channels and product innovations, highlighting the potential for significant growth [4][16].

板块在近段时间迎来一轮整体估值修复，随着业绩拐点的逐步到来，明年情绪 上可以更加乐观。 白酒板块看，当下白酒渠道从加杠杆阶段进入到去杠杆阶段，渠道库存有望逐 步出清，在龙头公司估值较低、预期已经下修，现金分红回报有吸引力的时点，股 价有望领先于业绩触底。 25 年关注政策刺激带动下的商务需求修复，高端白酒有望率先受益实现量价齐 升，次高端白酒承接，更具弹性。大众品 板块今年提前完成去库存，为明年增长蓄力，乳制品、调味品等板块进入改善 周期，龙头率先企稳业绩复苏带动盈利上修，饮料、零食、保健品、餐饮供应链等 细分板块仍有充足的成长驱动力。同时建议更多关注当前估值低具有一定安全垫， 并且有分红提升预期的标的，板块估值修复中反弹空间更高。 核心观点 证券研究报告| 行业深度报告 2024 年 12 月 17 日 签约客户可长按扫码阅读报告： 白酒板块：渠道包袱出清，股价拐点或先于业绩拐点。 经销商盈利水平持续性下降，导致其再投资意愿低迷。从企业应收账款（融资支持回款）数据来看， 24Q3 出现了拐 点，渠道进入去杠杆阶段。预计 2025 年实际销售与报表差异将收敛，产业进入真实动销去库存阶段。复盘 12-14 年上 ...