行 业 及 产 业 美容护理 2025 年 11 月 23 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 研 究 报 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 告 - 王立平 (8621)23297818× wanglp@swsresearch.com 品牌端渐入淡季积极备新，策略会共商未来发展 看好 ——化妆品医美行业周报 20251123 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 本周化妆品医美板块表现强于市场。2025 年 11 月 14 日至 2025 年 11 月 21 日期间， 申万美容护理指数下滑 4.5%，表现强于市场。其中，申万化妆品指数下滑 3.2%，强于 申万 A 指 1.9pct；申万个护用品指数下滑 4.5%，强于申万 A 指数 0.6pct。 ⚫ 周观点：品牌端渐入淡季积 ...

2025 年 11 月 23 日 需求端稳健发展，业绩端分化加剧 美容护理行业 25Q3 业绩回顾 本期投资提示: 版表 行业 相关研究 t 美研究院 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 看好 25Q3 需求端淡季不淡，国货概念与个护崛起持续发力。据国家统计局，7-9 月化妆品 ● 社会零售额 982 亿元，同比高个位数增长，相比 25H1 增长提速。同时大促带动 10 月 继续高增长，增速超 9%，跑赢社零整体。在需求端回暖背景下，国货崛起概念持续， 25 年双 11 大促, 珀莱雅卫冕天猫渠道美妆 GMV 销售榜 TOP1, 韩束继续位居抖音美 妆榜销售榜首，印证国货化妆品相对高景气度。 ● 化妆品板块业绩表现：由于港 ...

行 业 及 产 业 美容护理 2025 年 11 月 23 日 需求端稳健发展，业绩端分化加剧 看好 ——美容护理行业 25Q3 业绩回顾 本期投资提示： 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 行 业 - ⚫ 25Q3 需求端淡季不淡，国货概念与个护崛起持续发力。据国家统计局，7-9 月化妆品 社会零售额 982 亿元，同比高个位数增长，相比 25H1 增长提速。同时大促带动 10 月 继续高增长，增速超 9%，跑赢社零整体。在需求端回暖背景下，国货崛起概念持续， 25 年双 11 大促，珀莱雅卫冕天猫渠道美妆 GMV 销售榜 TOP1， ...

Core Insights - The launch of "Minsheng Lesuke," a smoking cessation drug by Minsheng Health, aims to provide a scientific and standardized solution for smokers in China, with a comprehensive sales strategy covering both online and offline channels [1][2] - The global smoking cessation market is projected to reach nearly 1 trillion by 2029, with a CAGR exceeding 19% from 2023 to 2029, indicating a significant growth opportunity in a market with limited supply and high demand [1] - The company positions "Minsheng Lesuke" as a strategic flagship product, focusing on scientific and user-friendly design to enhance treatment adherence, supported by a digital companion service to improve user success rates in quitting smoking [2] Industry Overview - The smoking cessation drug market is characterized by a blue ocean opportunity, with only four companies currently holding generic drug approvals in China following the withdrawal of Pfizer's original drug [1] - The company plans to leverage partnerships with domestic smoking cessation academic authorities and actively participate in setting industry standards to enhance its market presence [2] - Revenue projections for the company indicate a steady growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 792 million, 985 million, and 1.273 billion from 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 24%, and 29% respectively [2]

Group 1: Investment Strategies Overview - CITIC Securities released a comprehensive report on investment strategies for 2026, covering global capital markets, macroeconomic policies, A-shares, overseas markets, bond markets, asset allocation, and industry investment strategies [1] - The report includes insights from 19 research teams and spans approximately 30,000 words [1] Group 2: Pharmaceutical and Biotech Investment Strategies - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is entering a critical phase characterized by "innovation realization + global layout," supported by population and domestic demand, as well as manufacturing capabilities [3][4] - The industry needs to focus on internal supply chain security and compliance while exploring diversified international expansion [3] - Key investment opportunities for 2026 include innovation commercialization, global breakthroughs, policy optimization, and industry mergers and acquisitions [3][5][6] Group 3: Medical Device Investment Strategies - The medical device sector is expected to see performance improvements in 2026 due to policy easing, new product launches, and international expansion [14] - The long-term investment opportunities in this sector stem from innovation, internationalization, and mergers and acquisitions [14] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards high-value consumables and innovative technologies such as brain-computer interfaces and AI in healthcare [14][15] Group 4: Consumer Healthcare and Bioproducts - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is expected to recover from short-term pressures, with improved demand anticipated by year-end [9] - The blood products industry is focusing on supply growth and consolidation, with significant demand for immunoglobulin and factor products [10] - The vaccine sector is under pressure but is expected to improve with new product sales and international expansion [10] Group 5: Banking Sector Investment Strategies - The banking sector is expected to continue its weak recovery in 2025, with a focus on high dividend strategies [25][26] - The sector's fundamentals are stabilizing, with credit growth projected at 7%-8% and non-interest income expected to improve [26] - High dividend yield strategies are favored, particularly for state-owned banks and those with solid fundamentals [27] Group 6: Wealth Management and Financial Products - The wealth management sector is entering a phase of product transformation and structural optimization, with an expected growth rate of 10% in 2026 [28][33] - The focus is on multi-asset and multi-strategy products, with a significant increase in mixed product offerings anticipated [29][30] - The integration of AI and digital technologies is expected to enhance risk management and operational efficiency in wealth management [30] Group 7: Non-Banking Financial Institutions - The securities industry is poised for a new growth cycle, driven by policies that enhance capital market inclusivity and adaptability [35][36] - The industry is experiencing a shift from self-operated models to collaborative, light-asset business strategies [36][37] - The internationalization of Chinese securities firms is gaining momentum, providing new opportunities for growth [38][39] Group 8: Insurance Sector Trends - The insurance industry is expected to undergo significant changes during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on balancing interests among insurers, channels, and customers [43][44] - Key trends include the transformation of savings products, innovation in health insurance, and the development of new distribution channels [43][44] - The sector is anticipated to benefit from improved performance and valuation recovery, presenting investment opportunities [43][44] Group 9: Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector is recovering from a prolonged downturn, with a focus on premium products like liquor and health-oriented snacks [48][49] - The liquor industry is expected to stabilize as consumer confidence improves, with a focus on high-quality brands [49][50] - The snack and beverage segments are seeing growth driven by health trends and innovative product offerings [52][53]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhendong Pharmaceutical, is focusing on enhancing its operational performance and product competitiveness to improve long-term shareholder value, despite facing challenges in stock price compared to peers [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 14, 2025, Zhendong Pharmaceutical's stock closed at 7.37 yuan, reflecting a 3.08% increase with a turnover rate of 7.92% and a trading volume of 795,400 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 587 million yuan [1]. - On the same day, there was a net outflow of 17.61 million yuan from major funds, indicating continued withdrawal of institutional investment [2]. Group 2: Company Strategy - The company is committed to optimizing its product matrix, strengthening the competitiveness of its product pipeline, and enhancing channel development to boost performance [2]. - The company has completed its share repurchase plan, which is part of its strategy to return value to shareholders [2].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the beauty and personal care sector, recommending a "buy" rating for high-growth companies with strong brand power and innovative product offerings [2][3]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector is experiencing a slow recovery, with significant differentiation among sub-sectors. Personal care products and innovative channels continue to perform strongly, while the cosmetics sector shows signs of slowing growth due to domestic brand competition [1][2][3]. - For 2026, the overall beauty and personal care market is expected to remain stable, but further differentiation among companies is anticipated. The report emphasizes the importance of selecting high-growth targets with product and channel innovations [2][3]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the beauty and personal care sector saw revenues and net profits increase by 2.7% and 4.9% respectively, with personal care outperforming cosmetics and medical aesthetics [12][31]. - The cosmetics sector experienced a slight decline in revenue, with a 0.4% decrease year-on-year, while net profit fell by 2.3% [31][33]. Personal Care Sector - The personal care segment achieved revenues of 52 billion yuan and net profits of 5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.7% and 5.7% respectively. The third quarter alone saw a revenue increase of 41.1% [12][16]. - Companies like Ruoyuchen reported impressive growth, with a 123% increase in revenue and a 73% increase in net profit in the third quarter [12][28]. Cosmetics Sector - The cosmetics sector's revenue for the first three quarters was 308 billion yuan, with a net profit of 30 billion yuan, showing a decline of 0.4% and 2.3% respectively. The third quarter saw a revenue drop of 0.5% but a significant profit increase of 50.8% [12][31]. - The report highlights the importance of individual company strategies and product life cycles in determining performance within the cosmetics sector [13][48]. Medical Aesthetics Sector - The medical aesthetics segment reported revenues of 75 billion yuan and net profits of 27 billion yuan, with a slight revenue decline of 0.7% but a profit increase of 14.5% year-on-year [12][52]. - The third quarter saw a revenue increase of 1.8% and a remarkable profit growth of 96.6%, although underlying performance was affected by increased competition and integration challenges [52][56]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-growth companies with strong brand power, such as Ruoyuchen, Shangmei, and Maogeping, as well as companies with stable fundamentals and potential for marginal improvement like Dengkang Oral and Shanghai Jahwa [2][3]. - It also suggests monitoring companies that are expected to reach a turning point, such as Runben and Jinjian Biological, which may present investment opportunities [2][3].

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant achievements in the recent China-US trade talks, with the US agreeing to suspend certain tariffs on Chinese goods, which may positively impact trade dynamics [7] - The macroeconomic policy emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and improving living standards, as outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5][6] - The report notes a shift in export growth, with October exports showing a decline of 1.1% year-on-year, influenced by high base effects from the previous year [11][12] Group 2 - The report discusses the rebalancing between technology and cyclical sectors, suggesting that both will play significant roles in the market moving forward [17][20] - It identifies the satellite industry as a strategic investment opportunity, driven by large market potential, strong policy support, and technological advancements [23][24] - The report indicates that the REIT market is showing resilience, with the recent listing of the CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang International Software Park REIT, which is expected to attract investment due to its high dividend yield [65][66]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the beauty and personal care industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The beauty market in China showed steady performance in Q1-Q3 2025, with retail sales of cosmetics growing by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the overall retail sales growth of consumer goods at 3.3% [4][5] - The high-end segment is expected to outperform the mass market, with projected CAGR for high-end skincare and makeup at 9.6% and 10.8% respectively from 2023 to 2028, compared to 8.2% and 6.7% for the mass market [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, the beauty market maintained stable demand, with monthly retail sales growth fluctuating, peaking at 8.6% in September [4][5] - The personal care segment performed well, with revenue reaching 52.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.7% [16] Segment Analysis - Cosmetics segment revenue was 299.9 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.02%, while net profit decreased by 2.5% [16] - The medical beauty segment saw revenue of 74.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.7%, but net profit increased by 14.5% [16] - The personal care segment's revenue growth was driven by product innovation and expansion, with notable performances from companies like RuBen and RYTHM [16] Brand Competition - The competitive landscape is stable, with domestic brands like Proya and Han Shu gaining market share, particularly in platforms like Tmall and Douyin [11][12] - The report highlights the increasing strength of domestic brands due to their brand power and local advantages [12]

Core Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a shift from value preservation to emotional value, with a focus on high-growth segments for investment opportunities [5][28] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the retail sector, emphasizing the importance of consumer insights and differentiated product offerings [5][28] Retail Market Overview - The retail index reported a slight increase of 0.31% during the week of November 3 to November 7, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.08% [7][16] - Year-to-date, the retail index has increased by 4.20%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index's 19.27% growth [16][20] Investment Strategy for 2026 - The investment strategy highlights four main themes: 1. **Gold and Jewelry**: Focus on high-end and fashionable gold segments, with recommendations for brands like Lao Pu Gold and Chao Hong Ji [5][48] 2. **Retail E-commerce**: Emphasize the transformation of offline retail to enhance service and experience, with key players like Yonghui Supermarket and Ai Ying Shi [5][48] 3. **Cosmetics**: Target domestic brands that capture emotional value and innovate on safety ingredients, recommending brands like Juzi Biological and Pechoin [5][49] 4. **Medical Aesthetics**: Focus on differentiated product manufacturers and expanding medical institutions, with recommendations for brands like Ai Mei Ke and Ke Di-B [5][49] Sector Performance - The jewelry sector is undergoing significant changes due to rising gold prices and a decline in traditional wedding markets, leading to the emergence of brands with strong consumer insights [5][29] - The cosmetics sector is seeing a rise in domestic brands leveraging cultural roots and emotional value to capture market share [5][41] Company-Specific Insights - **Chao Hong Ji**: Reported a revenue increase of 28.4% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable performance in Q3 [54] - **Yonghui Supermarket**: Experienced a revenue decline of 22.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, but is undergoing significant transformation [50] - **Juzi Biological**: Achieved a revenue growth of 21.7% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, focusing on collagen products [50]