来源：格上理财 我一向相信，很多答案都藏在历史中。很多人对于巴菲特的"价值投资"，依然处于传统的投资观点，即 偏好低估值（如低市净率），价值投资者。但是下面的数据，一定让你发现真实情况的不同： 在伯克希尔历史上的240个持仓样本中，仅有19只股票（约占8%）的市净率低于1，且这些投资大多集 中在20世纪70年代末的熊市期间。相比之下，92%的股票交易价格高于账面价值。 更令人惊讶的是，巴菲特持仓的市净率中位数达到3.1，平均值高达7.9。在超过85%的年份中，他的投 资组合市净率始终高于标准普尔500指数成分股的平均水平。 这说明，巴菲特并非在寻找"便宜货"，而是在为企业的"无形价值"支付合理溢价。在巴菲特眼中，企业 价值早已超越了传统的"价值投资"范围。 作者：Saint Paul 这几天投资领域最热闹的，当属巴菲特在感恩节正式宣布了自己的告别。 同样引人关注的，是这份股东信后，伯克希尔的三季报显示，伯克希尔减持106亿美元苹果，大举增持 巴菲特曾经看不懂的互联网领域：谷歌。 一时间，各种评论纷至沓来。有人认为是阿贝尔新官上任三把火，有人认为伯克希尔开始转向新的投资 方向，有人从"巴菲特估值"的角度解释苹果 ...

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 刘国辉 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | 视觉中国 传奇总有谢幕时。 当地时间周一，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在官网发布首席执行官（CEO）巴菲特（Warren Buffett）致股东的年度信，巴菲特在信中表示，今后将不 再撰写伯克希尔的年度报告，也不会在年度股东大会上进行长篇发言。用英国人的话来说，要 "归于平静"了（I'm going quiet）。 巴菲特将在年底卸任CEO，阿贝尔（Greg Abel）将在年底接任公司负责人。但他将继续担任该公司董事会主席并暂时保留"相当数量"的股份。 对于健康状况，巴菲特表示，总体感觉还不错。虽然行动变慢了，看书也越来越费劲，但每周还是会去办公室五天，和同事一起工作。 然而巴菲特也明白，当平衡感、视力、听力和记忆力都持续走下坡路时，你就知道时光老人就在附近了。 95岁高龄的巴菲特，到了与伯克希尔一线投资工作告别的时候。1965-2024年伯克希尔年化收益19.9%，标普500仅10.4%，这一成绩足以载入史 册，而巴菲特对于价值投资的坚守，同样是全球投资界中的瑰宝。 他的伟大无需赘述 巴菲特在投资圈的影响力无与伦比，不止在美国，即使在大洋彼岸的中国， ...

Core Insights - The snack retail industry is witnessing a competitive race for the title of the first snack stock, with two major brands, Wancheng Group and Mingming Hen Mang, filing for IPOs within a short span of time [1] - Both companies have shown significant revenue growth, with Wancheng Group projecting revenues of 5.49 billion, 9.29 billion, and 32.33 billion CNY from 2022 to 2024, while Mingming Hen Mang expects revenues of 4.29 billion, 10.30 billion, and 39.34 billion CNY in the same period [1] - The rapid expansion of these brands is marked by a high number of franchise stores, with Wancheng Group aiming for 15,365 stores and Mingming Hen Mang claiming over 20,000 stores by mid-2025 [1] Expansion Strategies - Wancheng Group and Mingming Hen Mang have adopted aggressive expansion strategies, with Wancheng adding nearly 10,000 stores in just one year, averaging 26 new stores per day [3][4] - The companies rely heavily on franchise models, with Wancheng stating that 99.4% of its stores are franchises, indicating a high dependency on franchisee performance for revenue [4] Financial Performance - Both companies exhibit low profit margins compared to other sectors, with Mingming Hen Mang's gross margins ranging from 7.45% to 7.62% from 2022 to 2024, while Wancheng's gross margin is projected to be around 10.9% in 2024 [5] - The average payback period for franchisees has extended to about 29 months, indicating increasing challenges in achieving profitability [7] Market Challenges - The snack retail market is becoming saturated, leading to increased competition and a decline in profitability for franchisees, with many reporting losses and closures [9][10] - Franchisees are facing difficulties in maintaining sales, with many unable to achieve the necessary monthly revenue to break even, leading to a rise in store closures [8][9] Industry Trends - The industry is experiencing a shift as brands explore new growth avenues, such as diversifying product offerings to include trendy items like blind boxes and collectibles [11] - There are indications that brands like Wancheng Group are considering transforming into comprehensive supermarket formats to adapt to changing market dynamics [11][12]

Group 1 - Adidas customer service responded to claims that their down jackets are made by Snow Flying, assuring that all products have quality guarantees [2][2] - The jacket in question has a price of 579 yuan with a fill power of 600+, while a similar product from Snow Flying is priced at 519 yuan with a fill power of 680+ [2][2] - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed hope for Japan to work towards mutual understanding following the election of new Prime Minister Takashi Hayashi [2][2] Group 2 - QianDao responded to a viral report regarding a refund issue, clarifying that the transaction was a personal exchange and not related to their platform services [3][4] - The company emphasized that the alleged "minor refund policy" was not an official rule but a personal message from the seller [3][4] - QianDao is committed to improving transaction rules and customer service based on user feedback [4][4] Group 3 - The international gold and silver markets saw significant declines, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 5.07% to $4138.5 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop since April 2013 [4][4] - COMEX silver futures fell by 6.27% to $48.16 per ounce, also experiencing a significant decline [4][4] Group 4 - The smart glasses market experienced a 64.2% increase in shipments in the first half of 2025, reaching 4.065 million units [11][11] - The global smart glasses market is expected to exceed 40 million units by 2029, with China projected to have the highest growth rate [11][11] Group 5 - Bubble Mart announced an expected revenue growth of 245%-250% for Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, with domestic revenue increasing by 185%-190% [17][17] - The company also reported a 365%-370% increase in overseas revenue [17][17] Group 6 - China Telecom reported a net profit of 7.756 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.60% [18][18] - The company's revenue for the same period was 124.848 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.91% [18][18] Group 7 - Good Housekeeper reported a net profit of 57.0469 million yuan for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.67% [19][19] - The company's revenue for the quarter was 382 million yuan, up 7.27% year-on-year [19][19] Group 8 - Quanjude reported a net profit of 13.791 million yuan for Q3 2025, a significant decline of 66.46% year-on-year [21][21] - The company's revenue for the quarter was 329 million yuan, down 17.30% year-on-year [21][21] Group 9 - China National Pharmaceutical Group reported a net profit of 544 million yuan for Q3 2025, an increase of 13.10% year-on-year [22][22] - The company's revenue for the quarter was 13.747 billion yuan, a growth of 3.58% [22][22]

Group 1 - The overseas box office revenue of Chinese films has reached $140 million (approximately 1 billion RMB) as of October 20, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [1] - Chinese films have been released in 46 countries and regions, with 13 films earning over $1 million in overseas box office revenue [1] - The success of mid-tier films indicates the international potential of genre films and animations [1] Group 2 - The salary reduction crisis at Peak has escalated, with employees receiving a "final notice" to reflect and submit explanations regarding their refusal to accept salary cuts [2] - The company initiated a collective tiered salary reduction affecting primarily direct sales employees, leading to a brand trust crisis [2] - Balancing cost-cutting measures with employee morale is a significant challenge for Peak as it seeks to return to the capital market and revitalize its brand [2] Group 3 - Coca-Cola HBC has signed a final agreement to acquire 75% of Coca-Cola Beverages Africa (CCBA) for a total price of $2.6 billion, valuing the full equity of CCBA at $3.4 billion [3] - This acquisition represents a strategic move for Coca-Cola to regain control in the African market, which, despite uncertainties, holds significant growth potential [3] - The investment reflects Coca-Cola's commitment to local production and regional integration in Africa [3] Group 4 - Pop Mart expects its overall revenue for the third quarter of 2025 to increase by 245% to 250% year-on-year, with domestic revenue growing by 185% to 190% and overseas revenue by 365% to 370% [4] - The substantial growth in the overseas market indicates the effectiveness of its "trendy toy export" strategy [4] - The domestic market growth also highlights the company's successful transition from collectible toys to a "trendy cultural brand" [4]

Market Overview - US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones reaching a new high driven by corporate earnings, while tech and small-cap stocks faced pressure due to trade uncertainties, leading to a decline in the Nasdaq [3] - Apple saw a three-day rise, hitting a new high before a slight retreat, closing up 0.2%. General Motors surged 14.8% post-earnings, and Coca-Cola rose 4%. Meme stock Beyond Meat skyrocketed 146%, accumulating a three-day gain of approximately 600% [3] - Gold and silver experienced significant declines, with gold dropping over 5.7%, marking its largest single-day drop since 2013, and silver falling nearly 8% [3] - Crude oil prices rose over 1.2% due to the Trump administration's commitment to purchase 1 million barrels of strategic oil reserves [3] Key Corporate Earnings - Pop Mart reported a Q3 revenue increase of 245%-250% year-on-year, with overseas revenue growing by 365%-370% [7] - Netflix's Q3 earnings fell short of expectations due to tax issues in Brazil, leading to a downward revision of its full-year guidance, with shares dropping 7% in after-hours trading [8] - L'Oréal's Q3 sales also missed expectations, with a notable recovery in high-end demand in China but disappointing performance in North America, causing a significant drop in stock price [9] - General Motors' Q3 adjusted EBIT was $3.4 billion, down 18% year-on-year but exceeding analyst expectations, leading to a pre-market stock increase of over 9% [31] Industry Insights - The zinc market is experiencing a "short squeeze," with available inventory dropping to less than one day's demand, causing spot premiums to soar to their highest levels since 1997 [18] - OpenAI launched the AI browser ChatGPT Atlas, prompting a decline in Google's stock [19] - Samsung reported positive progress in its 2nm chip yield, raising its year-end target from 50% to 70% [20] - The AI storage chip market is entering a strong upward cycle due to surging demand and supply constraints, with DRAM inventory dropping to below two weeks [30] Macro Trends - The US banking sector is facing challenges, with regional banks like Western Alliance Bancorp reporting a 27% year-on-year profit increase, alleviating some investor concerns [22] - The Japanese stock market reached new highs following the election of Fumio Kishida as the first female Prime Minister, although investors are cautious about the sustainability of this rally [26] - The digital currency landscape is evolving, with discussions around its strategic military functions in modern warfare [34]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed movements with Dow futures up 0.08% and S&P 500 futures up 0.03%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.05% [1] - European indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.17%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.30%, France's CAC40 up 0.55%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.26% [2][3] - WTI crude oil rose by 0.79% to $57.47 per barrel, and Brent crude oil increased by 0.67% to $61.42 per barrel [3][4] Market Sentiment - The recent rebound in US stocks is attributed to short covering rather than genuine investor confidence, indicating a potential "false prosperity" [5] - Concerns about the US credit market tightening could lead to forced selling by pension funds, which may trigger a significant market downturn [5] - Allianz's chief economist noted that the current AI investment boom is a "rational bubble" that could help the US outperform global markets [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Wall Street analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may announce the end of its balance sheet reduction plan in the upcoming meeting, which could stabilize monetary policy [6] - Recent market fluctuations have led to increased use of the Fed's repurchase agreement tool, indicating liquidity concerns [6] Individual Company Performance - General Motors (GM) reported Q3 revenue of $48.59 billion, exceeding expectations of $45.26 billion, and raised its full-year EPS guidance to $9.75-$10.50 [7][8] - Coca-Cola (KO) posted Q3 revenue of $12.46 billion, surpassing the expected $12.41 billion, and reaffirmed its 2025 guidance [8] - GE Aerospace's Q3 revenue increased by 24% to $12.18 billion, driven by strong performance in its commercial engine business [8] - Zion Bank's Q3 profit exceeded expectations, with revenue of $872 million, indicating that credit pressure in regional banks may be isolated incidents [8] - DocGo's stock surged nearly 27% following its acquisition of virtual healthcare platform SteadyMD [8] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Notable earnings reports expected include Netflix, Texas Instruments, and Alliance West Bank on Wednesday morning, and Barclays, Teck Resources, and AT&T before market open [10]

Group 1: Earnings Season Overview - The upcoming week is expected to be one of the busiest periods of the earnings season, with multiple companies from technology, consumer goods, automotive, energy, aviation, finance, and industrial sectors set to report their performance [1]. Group 2: Technology and Communication Sector - Major companies such as Tesla (TSLA), Netflix (NFLX), Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), SAP, T-Mobile (TMUS), AT&T (T), and IBM will release earnings updates, highlighting trends in artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, and semiconductor demand [2]. Group 3: Consumer Goods and Industrial Leaders - Key players including Coca-Cola (KO), Procter & Gamble (PG), 3M (MMM), Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Philip Morris International (PM), Honeywell (HON), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), and General Electric (GE) will disclose critical data reflecting consumer spending, manufacturing output, and global supply chain conditions [3]. Group 4: Defense, Aerospace, and Infrastructure Logistics - Aerospace giants like Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX Corporation (RTX), General Dynamics (GD), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and Crown Castle (CCI) will report alongside infrastructure and logistics companies such as Union Pacific (UNP), United Rentals (URI), Dow Chemical (DOW), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Alcoa (AA), and Newmont Mining (NEM), providing insights into industrial demand and commodity market dynamics [4]. Group 5: Energy Sector - Companies including Halliburton (HAL), Baker Hughes (BKR), Valero Energy (VLO), Kinder Morgan (KMI), EQT Corporation (EQT), and Vertiv Holdings (VRT) will release earnings, revealing trends in the global oil, natural gas, and renewable energy sectors [7]. Group 6: Aviation Sector - American Airlines (AAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), and Alaska Air Group (ALK) will disclose earnings, with the industry closely monitoring travel demand and fuel cost changes as the holiday season approaches [8]. Group 7: Healthcare and Life Sciences Sector - Companies such as Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Danaher (DHR), Boston Scientific (BSX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Elevance Health (ELV), Sanofi (SNY), and Genuine Parts Company (GPC) will provide earnings updates [9]. Group 8: Financial and Real Estate Sector - Firms including Blackstone Group (BX), Capital One Financial (COF), Chubb Insurance (CB), Barclays Group (BCS), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC), CME Group (CME), Agree Realty (ADC), and Digital Realty Trust (DLR) will report earnings, with Nasdaq (NDAQ) also set to release its financial results, offering important references for the industry and potentially driving market momentum [10]. Group 9: Key Earnings Predictions - Coca-Cola (KO) is expected to report Q3 earnings on October 21, with consensus EPS forecasted at $0.78 and revenue at $12.41 billion, having exceeded expectations for eight consecutive quarters [11][13]. - Netflix (NFLX) will report Q3 earnings on the same day, with consensus EPS at $6.94 and revenue at $11.51 billion, showing strong subscriber growth and advertising revenue [14][16]. - Tesla (TSLA) is anticipated to report Q3 earnings on October 22, with consensus EPS at $0.55 and revenue at $26.58 billion, despite a projected 23% decline in profit year-over-year [18][21]. - Intel (INTC) will release its Q3 earnings on October 23, with consensus EPS at $0.00 and revenue at $13.1 billion, facing valuation concerns amid competitive pressures [22][24]. - Procter & Gamble (PG) is set to report Q1 earnings for FY2026 on October 24, with consensus EPS at $1.90 and revenue at $22.17 billion, amid cautious market sentiment regarding its growth potential [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - Coca-Cola China is expanding its production capabilities with the recent completion of new factories in Shaanxi and Henan, as well as the topping out of a smart green production base in the Greater Bay Area, reflecting the company's commitment to strengthening its local supply chain and responding to market opportunities [1] Group 1: Investment and Expansion - Coca-Cola China has invested in upgrading five production bases over the past three years, focusing on factory construction, capacity expansion, and smart transformation [1] - The company aims to enhance its regional supply chain network and deepen its local value chain through partnerships with COFCO and Swire, indicating a strategic approach to market responsiveness [1] Group 2: Market Confidence - Gilles Leclerc, President of Coca-Cola Greater China and Mongolia, emphasized the abundant opportunities in the Chinese market as a source of confidence for continued investment and commitment [1] - The company expresses its intention to remain deeply rooted in China, aiming to provide high-quality products and grow alongside the Chinese beverage industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Coca-Cola is considering selling Costa Coffee, with an estimated sale price of £2 billion (approximately 192.3 billion RMB), as the competitive landscape in the coffee market intensifies [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Costa Coffee is the largest coffee chain in the UK, with over 4,000 stores globally, and was acquired by Coca-Cola for $5.1 billion in 2018 [1][3][8]. - The acquisition aimed to help Coca-Cola enter the hot beverage market, which was one of the few areas without a global brand presence [1][10]. Group 2: Market Competition - The coffee market has become increasingly competitive, especially in China, where new players like Luckin Coffee are rapidly expanding and capturing market share [1][18][21]. - Costa's market share in the UK once surpassed that of Starbucks, but it now faces challenges from both local and international competitors [1][5][21]. Group 3: Strategic Challenges - The anticipated synergies from the acquisition have not fully materialized, as Costa struggles to compete with Starbucks' digital transformation and marketing strategies [13][15][25]. - Coca-Cola's core competencies in fast-moving consumer goods do not align well with the operational demands of running a coffee chain, leading to management challenges and capital expenditure issues [24][25]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The global coffee market is evolving, with new Chinese players beginning to replicate their successful models internationally, posing a new challenge to traditional brands [26]. - Selling or divesting Costa Coffee may allow Coca-Cola to refocus on its strengths in the fast-moving consumer goods sector, as the coffee business may not align with its operational model [26].