大摩预计特斯拉将在2026年显著增加Robotaxi车队规模至1000辆，并到2035年达到100万辆的规模。凭 借每英里0.59美元的成本优势，特斯拉不仅在无人驾驶出行市场占据先机，更将为其完全自动驾驶 (FSD)的全面推广积累关键数据和监管依据。 周四，特斯拉(TSLA.US)涨逾2%，报479.44美元。消息面上，特斯拉目前正在奥斯汀启动完全无人驾驶 Robotaxi测试，车内无安全监督员和乘客，标志着其自动驾驶商业化进入关键验证阶段。大摩分析师 Andrew S Percoco在最新研报中表示，特斯拉成功移除安全监督员并改善安全指标的能力，可能是验证 其Robotaxi战略的最重要近期催化剂。 ...

特斯拉（TSLA）周三早盘上涨0.5%。加州一名法官裁定该公司在Autopilot/完全自动驾驶（FSD）的功 能宣传上误导消费者；加州机动车管理局（DMV）采纳了为期30天的销售暂停令，但暂缓执行，给予 特斯拉60天时间修正相关宣传，从而避免了生产中断。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 特斯拉（TSLA）周三早盘上涨0.5%。加州一名法官裁定该公司在Autopilot/完全自动驾驶（FSD）的功 能宣传上误导消费者；加州机动车管理局（DMV）采纳了为期30天的销售暂停令，但暂缓执行，给予 特斯拉60天时间修正相关宣传，从而避免了生产中断。 ...

特斯拉正式在奥斯汀启动完全无人驾驶Robotaxi测试，车内无安全监督员和乘客，标志着其自动驾驶商业化进入关键验证阶 段。摩根士丹利认为，这一突破性进展将成为验证特斯拉Robotaxi战略的最重要催化剂。 特斯拉CEO马斯克上周末确认了社交媒体上流传的视频，显示特斯拉Robotaxi在奥斯汀街道上无人驾驶运行。这与公司三季 度财报电话会议上提出的年底前移除安全监督员的目标保持一致。 对此，大摩分析师Andrew S Percoco在最新研报中表示，特斯拉成功移除安全监督员并改善安全指标的能力，可能是验证其 Robotaxi战略的最重要近期催化剂。 该行预计特斯拉将在2026年显著增加Robotaxi车队规模至1000辆，并到2035年达到100万辆的规模。凭借每英里0.59美元的 成本优势，特斯拉不仅在无人驾驶出行市场占据先机，更将为其完全自动驾驶（FSD）的全面推广积累关键数据和监管依 据。 三大关键催化剂将决定扩张节奏 车队规模将迎来爆发式增长 大摩分析师认为，特斯拉在奥斯汀和旧金山采取了谨慎的扩张策略，优先考虑乘客安全。随着公司在移除安全监督员方面 取得进展，预计车队规模将显著扩大。 根据摩根士丹利的预 ...

Core Insights - Tesla's recent shareholder meeting resulted in a significant CEO compensation plan and an ambitious vision for AI, robotics, and autonomous driving, drawing investor attention to its potential for future growth [1][3] Group 1: CEO Compensation Plan - The 2025 CEO incentive plan received over 75% approval at the annual shareholder meeting, allowing for stock grants up to 12% of the current total shares, potentially worth around $1 trillion [1][3] - The plan's milestones include increasing the company's market cap from $2 trillion to $8.5 trillion and achieving operational goals such as delivering 1 million robots and operating 1 million Robotaxis [1][2] Group 2: Market Expectations - Investors are viewing the new compensation plan through the lens of the 2018 incentive plan, which saw Tesla's stock rise approximately 1350% since its announcement, compared to a 130% increase in the S&P 500 during the same period [1][3] - Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral rating on Tesla, citing more cautious profit expectations for its autonomous driving and robotics businesses, while setting a 12-month price target of $400, indicating a potential downside of 10.3% from the current stock price [3] Group 3: Product Roadmap and Milestones - Tesla's product roadmap includes plans for the Optimus humanoid robot, with production of version V3 expected to start in 2026, and aims for a production capacity of 100 million robots annually [4] - The company anticipates advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, with features allowing users to text while driving expected in the next 1-2 months [4] - Key operational milestones include the removal of safety observers from Robotaxi services by year-end and a target to increase annual vehicle production capacity by 50% by the end of next year [4] Group 4: Semiconductor Strategy - Tesla plans to collaborate with Samsung and TSMC to produce its AI5 chips and aims to start production of AI6 chips within a year of AI5's launch, exploring the possibility of building its own wafer fabrication plant to meet future chip demands [4]

Group 1: Optimus Robot Development - The third version of the Optimus robot faces three main challenges: hand dexterity, AI brain capabilities, and large-scale production [2][3] - Achieving human-like hand functionality is crucial, requiring approximately 26 custom actuators per arm, which the current supply chain cannot provide [3] - Once mass production reaches 1 million units annually, the marginal production cost is estimated to be around $20,000 to $25,000 per robot [3] Group 2: Tesla AI Chip Advancements - The next-generation AI5 chip is expected to deliver a 40-fold performance improvement over the AI4 chip, significantly enhancing processing efficiency [4][30] - The AI4 chip currently used in vehicles is projected to make autonomous driving at least 2-3 times safer than human drivers, potentially reaching up to 10 times safer with the upcoming FSD v14 software update [5][30] Group 3: Starlink Direct-to-Phone Initiative - SpaceX plans to enable direct satellite-to-phone communication using new frequency bands, with a launch expected in two years [6][31] - The goal is to establish Starlink as a global independent operator, providing a comprehensive solution that includes a home antenna and direct phone connectivity [6][32] Group 4: Starship Progress and Reusability - The Starship is anticipated to achieve full reusability by next year, with the third version capable of carrying 100 tons into orbit, which is 2.5 times more than the current strongest commercial rocket [7][33] - Key challenges include developing a fully reusable thermal protection system that can withstand high temperatures and remain intact during re-entry [7][35] Group 5: Grok AI and General AI Development - Grok is enhancing training data through reasoning calculations, aiming to potentially launch a "Grok Encyclopedia" [8][39] - The Colossus 2 supercluster is being expanded, with expectations that a tenfold increase in computational power could lead to a doubling of intelligence [8][41]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is seeking investor approval for a staggering compensation package for CEO Elon Musk, potentially worth up to $1 trillion if he meets a series of challenging goals over the next decade [3][6]. Group 1: Compensation Details - The proposed compensation of $1 trillion exceeds the GDP of 90% of the world's countries, with only 19 out of 195 economies having an annual GDP over $1 trillion [3]. - If Musk receives this compensation, it would be equivalent to nearly 140 years of Tesla's projected net profit of $7.1 billion for 2024 [4]. Group 2: Performance Targets - To unlock the $1 trillion compensation, Tesla must achieve several ambitious targets: - Market capitalization must reach $2 trillion initially, with subsequent increments leading to a maximum of $8.5 trillion, each requiring a six-month duration [6]. - Adjusted EBITDA must increase from $16.6 billion to a maximum of $400 billion, representing a 24-fold growth [6]. - Sales and product goals include selling an additional 12 million electric vehicles, acquiring 10 million autonomous driving subscriptions, operating 1 million robotaxis, and selling 1 million AI robots [6]. Group 3: Belief in Tesla's Potential - Despite the daunting nature of these targets, Tesla has a history of achieving remarkable feats under Musk's leadership, instilling confidence in the possibility of meeting these goals [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of Zhu Xiaotong, a key executive at Tesla, highlighting his significant wealth accumulation through stock options and sales, contrasting his actions with Elon Musk's long-term vision for the company [4][11][31]. Group 1: Zhu Xiaotong's Rise and Wealth Accumulation - Zhu Xiaotong, originally responsible for Tesla's charging network in China, has become a crucial figure in the company, amassing over $8.5 million in cash and holding stock worth approximately $21.5 million [4][20]. - His stock options include a plan for 339,060 shares, potentially worth up to $780 million, reflecting a significant financial incentive tied to his performance [15][20]. - Zhu's frequent stock sales, particularly in 2023, have raised questions about executive confidence in Tesla's future, as he has sold approximately 29,539 shares for around $8.5 million [18][20][22]. Group 2: Tesla's Executive Actions and Market Reactions - Tesla's executives, including Zhu, have engaged in a collective stock sell-off, indicating a cautious outlook amid declining performance metrics, with total sales exceeding $200 million [26][27]. - The company's second-quarter results showed a 12% year-over-year revenue decline to $22.5 billion, with a 13.5% drop in global deliveries, raising concerns about its growth trajectory [28][29]. - Elon Musk's emphasis on long-term goals, such as full self-driving and Robotaxi services, contrasts with the immediate financial actions of his executives, creating a tension between current performance and future aspirations [29][30]. Group 3: Broader Implications for Tesla - The article illustrates the dichotomy within Tesla, where executive stock sales reflect personal financial security concerns against a backdrop of uncertain market conditions and declining sales [26][28]. - Musk's strategy of tying executive compensation to long-term performance may lead to short-term skepticism from investors, as high-level executives cash out amid a challenging business environment [22][24]. - The ongoing narrative of Tesla's transformation and future potential is juxtaposed with immediate operational challenges, highlighting the complexities of managing investor expectations in a volatile market [29][30].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebounded in June, indicating cost pressures from tariffs are being passed to consumers, but overall inflation remains moderate [1] - The Eurozone's June inflation rate was reported at 2.0%, up from 1.9% in May, returning to the European Central Bank's (ECB) medium-term target [5] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.59% this week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.07% [1] - The Nasdaq increased by 1.51%, and the Russell 2000 index saw a 0.23% rise [1] - In Europe, the STOXX 600 index decreased by 0.06%, while the DAX 30 index rose by 0.14% [1] Group 3: Cryptocurrency and Commodities - Bitcoin reached a new historical high of $123,000 this week [3] - Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.61%, and WTI crude oil futures dropped by 3.54% due to trade tensions affecting demand [3] - Gold futures closed at $3,355.50 per ounce, down 0.25%, while silver peaked at $39 per ounce before retreating [3] Group 4: Company Earnings and Expectations - Tesla is expected to report Q2 earnings with anticipated revenue between $22 billion and $23 billion, a 12% year-over-year decline [6] - Google is projected to report Q2 revenue between $93.6 billion and $94.2 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase [7] - Analysts have mixed ratings for Tesla and Google, with Tesla facing challenges in its Robotaxi and FSD initiatives, while Google is under scrutiny for its advertising revenue and AI impacts [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends and investment opportunities, highlighting sector rotations and the importance of monitoring market volume for potential breakthroughs in index levels [3][4]. Market Overview - On June 6, the three major stock indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3,384.29 points, up 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,205.52 points, up 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index at 2,047.87 points, down 0.04% [2]. Expert Opinions - **Orient Securities**: Anticipates a rotation in market sectors in the second half of the year, suggesting that current levels present good investment opportunities. Close monitoring of market volume is essential for potential breakthroughs above 3,400 points [3]. - **HaiShun Securities**: Maintains a positive outlook for the market, indicating a possibility of further upward movement towards the 3,400-point key level. Emphasizes the need for precise market timing and sector focus for low-cost investments [3]. - **JinYuan Securities**: Recommends focusing on specific investment opportunities that align with the current market logic, noting that certain sectors are driving market sentiment and could attract more capital [4]. Sector Insights - **CITIC Securities**: Highlights that the L4 autonomous driving trend and the new vehicle cycle are key investment themes in the automotive sector. The market is catching up with industry trends, indicating potential upward momentum [7]. - **Galaxy Securities**: Points out the implementation of green electricity direct connection policies, which could benefit renewable energy consumption and help companies reduce electricity costs. This presents a pivotal opportunity in the renewable energy generation sector [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent layoffs at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) on Tesla's development of autonomous driving technology, highlighting concerns about regulatory oversight and the potential hindrance to Tesla's operations [1][2]. Group 1: Layoffs and Regulatory Impact - Approximately 30 employees from NHTSA were laid off as part of a government efficiency initiative, significantly affecting the morale within the agency [1]. - NHTSA is currently conducting eight investigations into Tesla, having received over 10,000 public complaints [1]. - The layoffs are believed to weaken NHTSA's understanding of autonomous driving technology, which could impede Tesla's development [1][2]. Group 2: Tesla's Future Plans - Tesla aims to launch a fully autonomous ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas by June and plans to produce a fleet of autonomous "cybercabs" next year [1]. - To operate non-standard autonomous vehicles on U.S. roads, Tesla requires exemptions from NHTSA [1]. - A Tesla manager emphasized the need for NHTSA to increase staffing to develop a national framework for autonomous vehicles, indicating that without this, Tesla's scaling efforts in fully autonomous driving or ride-hailing may be severely limited [2].