风水轮流转，燃油车又支棱起来了。中国汽车工业协会（以下简称"中汽协"）最新数据显示，8月国内传统燃油乘用车销量达到90.2万辆，同比增长 高达13.5％。这并非偶然的月度波动，而是燃油车市场销量连续第三个月保持增长。另一边，保时捷对产品结构进行了调整，部分电动车将推迟推出，更 多燃油车型或将问世。这看似并无相关的两则消息，其实反映了过去一段时间，一众车企在燃油车领域试图打一场"翻身仗"的决心，而销量的增长则是它 们不懈努力的阶段性成果。不过，这个阶段性的成果意义究竟有多大，它是市场变换中的短期效应，还是历经调整后的逆风翻盘，或许还需要打个问号。 燃油车销量下滑"踩刹车" 合资分化 自主崛起 事实上，燃油车的"回暖"早已有迹可循。若将时间线拉长，传统燃料汽车的销量已经在悄然释放积极信号。中汽协数据显示，2024年传统燃料汽车国 内销量为1398.9万辆，同比下滑17.3％。而今年1～8月，传统燃料汽车国内销量874.7万辆，同比仅下降0.3％。在近日举办的2025泰达汽车论坛上，国务院 发展研究中心市场经济研究所副所长王青也指出，燃油车今年出现了一个积极变化，即其对整体增长的负贡献明显缩小。2024年，从国内销 ...

业内人士指出，燃油车阵营如今呈现结构性回暖态势，但相较于部分新势力车企，仍面临转型升级滞 后、增长动力不足等问题。未来若想持续提升份额，新势力车企应加速布局多品牌矩阵，传统车企则应 整合燃油车渠道，转型"订单制+直营+代理"的混合模式，以降低库存风险。 近日，2025年9月国内车企交付数据陆续揭晓。作为一年中的销售旺季，"金九"旺季车市呈现新能源与 燃油车双线分化又各具亮点的格局：零跑以首破6万登顶新势力榜首，鸿蒙智行、小鹏、小米等头部车 企在月销4万大关处"贴身肉搏"，新势力竞争门槛显著提升；燃油车虽呈现回暖态势，但市场向头部集 中的特征愈发明显，仅9款销量破万的车型就占据约20%的市场份额。 新势力头部门槛升至"月销4万" 从9月交付数据来看，造车新势力整体销量延续增长的态势。今年9月，零跑汽车交付新车66657辆，同 比增长97%，成为首个月销破6万的新势力品牌，再次拿下新势力销冠。在2025年慕尼黑车展上，零跑 Lafa5首发亮相，零跑B10也正式开启交付。10月，零跑还将继续推出新车。10月16日，零跑D19将进行 全球首秀，新车基于零跑D平台打造，定位全尺寸SUV。 当下，新势力品牌的头部玩家门槛 ...

业内人士指出，燃油车阵营如今呈现结构性回暖态势，但相较于部分新势力车企，仍面临转型升级滞 后、增长动力不足等问题。未来若想持续提升份额，新势力车企应加速布局多品牌矩阵，传统车企则应 整合燃油车渠道，转型"订单制+直营+代理"的混合模式，以降低库存风险。 新势力头部门槛升至"月销4万" 近日，2025年9月国内车企交付数据陆续揭晓。作为一年中的销售旺季，"金九"旺季车市呈现新能源与 燃油车双线分化又各具亮点的格局：零跑以首破6万登顶新势力榜首，鸿蒙智行、小鹏、小米等头部车 企在月销4万大关处"贴身肉搏"，新势力竞争门槛显著提升；燃油车虽呈现回暖态势，但市场向头部集 中的特征愈发明显，仅9款销量破万的车型就占据约20%的市场份额。 中国汽车工业协会发布的数据显示，8月燃油车销量同比增长12.9%，已连续三个月保持正增长，今年9 月则环比增长了11.4%。降价策略、政策红利以及刚需市场，让燃油车守住了半壁江山。其中，降价是 最直接的推手。进入2025年下半年，多个传统燃油车品牌经销商大幅加大优惠力度。例如，大众朗逸 2025款新锐1.5L出众新逸版官方指导价已降至8万元，相较老款下调约2万元；北京一家奔驰4S店销售 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with retail sales of narrow passenger cars reaching 10.901 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [1] - Domestic brands have captured a significant market share of 64%, indicating their dominance in the Chinese market [1] - BYD leads the sales chart with 2.146 million units sold, while Geely has seen a remarkable growth rate of 47% year-on-year [1][12] - New energy vehicle sales are on the rise, with companies like Leap Motor and XPeng showing significant growth [1][19] Group 1: Overall Market Performance - As of June 2025, the cumulative retail sales of narrow passenger cars in China reached 10.901 million units, reflecting a 10.8% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Domestic brands have increased their market share to 64%, solidifying their position in the market [1] - BYD has achieved a sales volume of 2.146 million units, maintaining its position as the top seller [12] - Geely's sales have surged by 47%, prompting the company to raise its annual sales target to 3 million units [1][12] Group 2: Performance of New Energy and Emerging Brands - Leap Motor has emerged as a leader among new energy vehicle manufacturers, with monthly sales nearing 50,000 units [1] - XPeng has also shown impressive growth, selling more vehicles in the first half of 2025 than in the entire previous year [1] - The new energy vehicle segment is experiencing rapid growth, with companies like BYD and Geely leading the charge [12][19] Group 3: Traditional Automakers' Performance - Some traditional automakers are showing signs of recovery, with brands like FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen reporting positive year-on-year growth [1][9] - FAW Toyota has seen a significant increase of 16% in sales, indicating a rebound in the joint venture segment [1][9] - However, brands like GAC are struggling, with a decline in sales, highlighting the challenges faced by traditional automakers [1][9] Group 4: Export Performance - SAIC has become a leader in overseas sales, with 494,000 units sold, accounting for nearly 25% of its total sales [10] - Changan has also made strides in international markets, with overseas sales exceeding 300,000 units, a growth of over 45% [10] - GAC has reported a 45.6% increase in overseas sales, completing 55% of its annual export target [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities International indicates that Geely Automobile (00175) is expected to raise its annual sales target due to the launch of significant new models from Galaxy, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr in the second half of the year, which could act as a catalyst for the stock price [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In May, Geely's total wholesale volume reached 235,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, setting a historical record [2] - The cumulative wholesale volume from January to May was 1.17 million units, up 49% year-on-year, achieving approximately 43% of the annual sales target of 2.71 million units, with potential for exceeding the target [2] - In May, the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles (NEVs) was 138,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 178% and a month-on-month increase of 9.9%, significantly outpacing the industry growth [2] - NEVs accounted for 58.7% of total sales in May, up 22.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Cumulative NEV wholesale from January to May reached 602,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 137%, representing 51% of total sales [2] - The high-end fuel vehicle, China Star, saw sales of 87,000 units in May, with the high-end series achieving a year-on-year growth of 21% [2] Group 2: Product Launches and Innovations - The company plans to launch multiple significant new models in the second half of the year, including the Galaxy A7 mid-size sedan and a rugged SUV, enhancing its product matrix [3] - The high-end flagship SUV Lynk & Co 900 had nearly 5,600 units delivered in May, with a strong order backlog, and the Lynk & Co hybrid Z10 is set to launch in the second half [3] - Zeekr's new model 007GT is performing well, with additional luxury SUVs set to launch in Q3 and Q4 [3] - The fuel vehicle Star series is leveraging the new energy platform for shared benefits, with the Star Yue L model performing well since its March launch [3] Group 3: International Expansion - The company is accelerating its overseas layout, with the first EX5 produced at the Indonesian KD factory and plans for a light asset model in Latin America and Central Asia [3] - The Galaxy E5 and Star Wish are set to enter multiple markets in the second quarter, with an acceleration of overseas expansion planned for the second half of the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese automotive brands are redefining market standards by offering high configurations at competitive prices, challenging traditional pricing and technology barriers in the automotive industry [2][3][4]. Group 1: Product Logic Innovation - Chinese brands are adopting a new product logic where base configurations are equivalent to high configurations, making advanced features standard in entry-level models [3][4]. - For example, the 2025 IM L6 starts at 204,900 yuan, including features like an 800V high-voltage platform and Huawei ADS 3.0 driving system, which would typically cost an additional 200,000 yuan in traditional luxury brands [3]. - The coverage of intelligent configurations in Chinese brands is 2.3 times that of joint venture brands, enhancing user experience and pushing competitors to accelerate technological upgrades [3][5]. Group 2: Value Standard Reconstruction - The traditional vehicle classification system is being disrupted, with models like Chery Fengyun A9L offering C-class space standards at a 200,000 yuan price point, equipped with high-end technologies [4][5]. - The Aito M9, priced at 469,800 yuan, surpasses the value standards of luxury brands like the Mercedes-Benz GLS, showcasing a shift in high-end vehicle pricing and features [4][6]. Group 3: Cost Control and Pricing Strategy - Chinese brands achieve competitive pricing through cost control strategies, including supply chain integration and independent software development, resulting in a 30% reduction in battery costs [6][7]. - The implementation of transparent pricing strategies, such as nationwide uniform pricing, enhances competitiveness by returning consumer power to users [7][8]. - The transformation in pricing strategies is leading to a redefinition of market dynamics, as evidenced by a 7.3% year-on-year increase in China's automotive exports in Q1 2025 [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing transformation in the automotive industry is expected to continue, with Chinese brands needing to focus on technological innovation and global expansion to maintain their competitive edge [8]. - The ultimate goal for the Chinese automotive industry is to redefine global automotive value standards, transitioning from a "big automotive country" to a "strong automotive country" in the era of smart electric vehicles [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry as of May 18, 2025 [1] Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a positive retail trend, with passenger car retail sales reaching 574,000 units from May 1 to May 11, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month-on-month increase of 34% [7][61] - The cumulative retail sales for the year have reached 7.446 million units, showing an 8% year-on-year growth [61] - The report highlights the significant impact of the "old-for-new" vehicle subsidy policy, with applications exceeding 10 million since its implementation in 2024, and 3.225 million applications recorded by May 11, 2025 [7][48] - The report emphasizes advancements in smart vehicles, particularly the launch of Horizon's L2 urban assisted driving system, which is expected to enhance vehicle computing platforms [7][64] Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - Retail sales for passenger vehicles from May 1 to May 11, 2025, were 574,000 units, up 12% year-on-year and 34% month-on-month [61][62] - Cumulative wholesale for the year reached 8.932 million units, with a 12% year-on-year increase [62] - Key companies to watch include BYD, Geely, Xpeng, SAIC, Changan, GAC, and Leap Motor [62] New Energy Vehicles - Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 294,000 units from May 1 to May 11, 2025, marking a 32% year-on-year increase [63] - The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles is 51.3%, with cumulative sales of 3.618 million units for the year, reflecting a 35% year-on-year growth [63] - Recommended companies include BYD, Geely, Huayu Automotive, and others [63] Smart Vehicles - The report discusses the launch of Horizon's L2 urban assisted driving system, which will be mass-produced in September 2025 [64] - Companies with technological advancements in smart driving algorithms and sensors are highlighted, including BYD, Geely, and various component manufacturers [64] Heavy Trucks - In April, heavy truck sales were approximately 88,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [11][65] - The report notes a significant rise in new energy heavy truck sales, which reached 15,800 units, a 245% year-on-year increase [11][65] - Companies to monitor include Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, and Tianrun Industrial [65] Robotics - The report mentions the "Digital China Construction 2025 Action Plan," which aims to enhance AI applications and develop intelligent manufacturing equipment [66] - Companies involved in humanoid robotics and AI technology are recommended, including Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Controls, and others [66]

| | 目录 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 序号 生产厂商 | 子车型 | 上市时间 细分市场及车身结构 | | 工程更改规模 | | 银河 星耀8 | 1 吉利汽车 | | 2025 / 05 / 09 | C NB | NP | | | 2 吉利汽车 | 博越L | 2025 / 05 / 13 | A SUV | MCE2-1 | | | 3 智己汽车 | 智己 L6 | 2025 / 05 / 13 | C NB | MCE2-1 | | | 4 长城汽车 | 흘피8 | 2025 / 05 / 13 | C MPV | MCE2-1 | | | 5 长城汽车 | 高山9 | 2025 / 05 / 13 | C MPV | MCE2-1 | | | 6 零跑汽车 | 零跑 C10 | 2025 / 05 / 15 | B SUV | MCE3 | | | 7 长安汽车 | 启源 Q07 | 2025 / 05 / 16 | B SUV | NM | | | 注:工改授定义 全新产品(MP):全新上市车型,车型名称是全新的。 小 ...

Group 1 - Geely Holding Group announced the integration of its battery business, establishing a new battery industry group called Jiyao Tongxing, unifying its existing brands into the Shendun Jinzhuan battery brand [1] - The company will open its battery bottom safety patent collection to the entire industry, providing a systematic solution for vehicle battery safety design and technology validation [1] - Geely's global safety testing center, the largest single safety testing laboratory, is set to be completed this year and will also be open to the entire industry [1] Group 2 - The Shendun Jinzhuan battery brand reflects Geely's commitment to vehicle safety, with the Shendun short blade battery being 40% shorter than long blade batteries and having a thickness of 18.2mm, enhancing battery stability [2] - Geely's decision to pursue the "short blade" route aims to find the optimal solution for power batteries, with the core purpose of ensuring vehicle safety through the opening of battery bottom safety patents [2] - The patents include designs for a protective battery pack bottom plate, an integrated battery pack crash beam, and a bottom collision testing device, all aimed at enhancing safety for users [2] Group 3 - Geely emphasizes that safety is the top priority, particularly regarding intelligent driving safety, stating that unsafe intelligent driving is akin to a shaky foundation [3] - The company believes that innovative technologies should not be tested in the market, and recent regulatory enhancements on intelligent driving are seen as beneficial for the industry's stability [3] - Geely stresses the importance of honesty in marketing intelligent driving features, advocating for a focus on safety rather than exaggerated claims [3]