12月16日，在"国是论坛：2025年会"上，北京大学国家发展研究院副院长黄卓结合经济产业视角，回顾 过去20年中国实体经济的三大机遇，并预判未来20年企业出海、新消费、人工智能将成为驱动经济发展 的新机遇。 黄卓指出，个人与企业的成功离不开对经济趋势的把握。回溯过去20年，中国实体经济的三大机遇深刻 影响了发展进程。其一为全球化机遇，自改革开放尤其是2001年加入世贸组织后，中国深度融入全球分 工，企业借力学习先进技术与管理经验，生产效率提升，"世界工厂"地位确立，这一趋势也使得"国 际"类专业在早年成为热门选择。 其二是城市化趋势，人口向城镇、大城市聚集推动城市化率攀升，房地产行业崛起，地方政府通过土地 出让金完善基建、招商引资，形成良性循环，买房决策也成为影响一线城市居民发展的关键变量。 第二，人口结构变化催生的新消费机遇。黄卓认为，消费对中国经济的贡献仍有巨大提升空间，中央经 济工作会议将提振消费置于重要位置。扩大消费需政府与企业协同发力：政府需提高居民收入、完善公 共服务与社保，破除消费堵点；企业则需精准对接新消费趋势。 当前中国消费市场呈现"K形"结构，既存在对性价比消费的偏好，如商场地下一层餐饮 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing demand for bilingual tour guides in China's tourism industry, particularly in the context of the "China Travel" trend, which emphasizes the importance of cultural exchange and storytelling [3][4][7]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The tourism market is experiencing a surge in the need for bilingual guides, who serve as both tour leaders and cultural ambassadors, connecting foreign tourists with Chinese culture [3][4]. - The implementation of a visa-free policy for Spanish passport holders has significantly boosted the number of Spanish tourists visiting Chengdu, with these tourists making up about half of the Spanish-speaking visitors [4]. Group 2: Tour Guide Experiences - Tour guides like Li Mingxiang and Wang Haiyan share their experiences of engaging with foreign tourists, emphasizing the importance of cultural understanding and personalized service in enhancing the travel experience [4][8]. - The guides often face challenges in communication, particularly with complex cultural concepts, but they adapt by preparing in advance and learning from each interaction [6][9]. Group 3: Cultural Exchange - The guides aim to provide immersive cultural experiences, such as teaching tourists about local cuisine and customs, which helps bridge cultural gaps and fosters a deeper appreciation for Chinese culture [5][12]. - Personal anecdotes from guides illustrate the emotional connections formed with tourists, highlighting the role of tour guides as cultural ambassadors who facilitate meaningful exchanges [10][14].

Group 1: Private Equity Performance - The top 10 subjective private equity firms have been announced, with notable institutions betting on sectors like DeepSeek, robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [1] - Among the subjective private equity firms, 9 firms had at least 3 products that met ranking criteria and achieved positive average returns in the first half of the year [1] - Fusheng Asset topped the list with an average return of 45.5%, focusing on new consumption trends where consumers prioritize "quality-price ratio" [1] Group 2: Quantitative Private Equity Growth - The number of quantitative private equity firms has increased to 41, surpassing subjective private equity firms for the first time, leading to a total of 89 billion private equity firms [2] - The top 10 quantitative private equity firms achieved average returns exceeding 15.99%, with Stable Investment leading at 27.2% [2] - The industry is characterized by "scale expansion, performance differentiation, and deepening research and investment," with quantitative firms solidifying their market position through technological innovation [2] Group 3: Market Outlook and Trends - The market showed resilience in the first half of 2025, with a consensus forming around an upward trend for the second half [5][6] - The stock market experienced strong rebounds after significant declines, indicating robust market resilience [5] - Key sectors identified for investment opportunities include innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, smart robotics, and precious metals, with innovative pharmaceuticals highlighted as having historical opportunities [7][8] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Credit Suisse Securities has been renamed Beijing Securities following a change in ownership [9][10] - Shenyang Securities has received approval to establish a subsidiary for private investment fund operations, expanding the broker-dealer's private equity footprint [16] - Administrative measures have been taken against Chengdu Fukun Yingchuang for multiple violations, including inadequate employee numbers and failure to fulfill investor suitability management obligations [18]

Group 1 - Recent escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has significantly impacted global oil prices, leading to a substantial increase in international oil prices due to the region's status as a major oil exporter and the risk of a broader war between Israel and Iran [1] - Rising oil prices will increase production costs for industrial companies that rely on oil as a raw material and fuel, potentially affecting their profits [1] - Oil companies with existing oil inventories may benefit from the appreciation of their stock, leading to increased revenue [1] Group 2 - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations have shown progress, with a joint statement released in Geneva and a temporary suspension of tariff increases for 90 days, which may be extended [2] - China's relaxation of rare earth export policies signals a positive development in trade relations, which could lead to a normalization of trade and support a recovery in global trade [2] - The U.S. stock market has seen a recent rebound, but valuations remain high, while the Hong Kong stock market is positioned for potential recovery due to lower valuations [2] Group 3 - China's economic data indicates significant growth in consumption driven by policies like the trade-in program, although fixed asset investment and industrial output growth remain low, suggesting insufficient growth momentum [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown negative growth for three consecutive months, indicating a need for continued policy measures to boost domestic demand [3] - The internationalization of the Chinese yuan is accelerating, with more countries adopting it for trade settlements, reflecting a clear trend towards de-dollarization [3] Group 4 - The technology sector, particularly in areas like humanoid robots and AI, is expected to lead market growth during a potential recovery, with significant growth opportunities in household applications [3] - The consumer market is experiencing a divergence, with new consumption models thriving among younger demographics, while traditional consumer goods may face short-term pressure but could recover in an upward economic cycle [3]

Group 1 - Geopolitical tensions are driving funds towards safe-haven assets, with military, shipping, oil, and gold sectors showing early performance [1] - The market is characterized by volatility, with a high rate of rebounds and a notable number of stocks experiencing significant fluctuations [1] - Defensive sectors, particularly those related to oil, natural gas, nuclear power, military, gold, and shipping, are leading the market, indicating a first-day surge in these themes [1] Group 2 - There is a focus on low-entry opportunities in shipping and gold, as oil stocks opened high, suggesting potential for further gains if geopolitical tensions persist [2] - The sustainability of the geopolitical war narrative is subjective, with expectations of continued interest in these sectors if tensions escalate [2] - New consumption themes, particularly the IP economy, have seen declines, but there is potential for recovery if geopolitical news improves over the weekend [3] Group 3 - The market is witnessing a rotation in themes, with core stocks showing resilience despite profit-taking in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and rare earth magnets [3] - The overall market remains stable with over 4,000 stocks closing in the green, indicating potential for recovery and low-entry opportunities in elastic financial sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Jiang Xiaojun emphasizes that digital intelligence technology is transforming the cultural industry and trade, creating vast opportunities for growth and innovation in cultural exports [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Digital Intelligence on Cultural Industry - Digital intelligence technology is driving changes across the entire cultural industry chain, significantly promoting its prosperity and development [1]. - The efficiency of extracting, processing, and generating cultural elements has been greatly enhanced, giving cultural products an inherent global appeal [1]. - The case of the domestic 3A game "Black Myth: Wukong" illustrates the potential of high-quality cultural products in the international market, with one-third of its players being overseas [1]. Group 2: Cultural Trade Forms - Jiang Xiaojun identifies four forms of cultural trade that should be emphasized for collaborative development: 1. Cross-border sales of cultural products, exemplified by Pop Mart's overseas revenue accounting for about 40% [2]. 2. Attracting foreign consumers to experience cultural services in China. 3. Cultural producers operating commercially abroad. 4. A dual cross-border model involving both producers and consumers [2]. Group 3: Challenges in AI-Assisted Creation - The rise of AI-assisted creation is rapidly enhancing creative capabilities, with AI learning from vast amounts of cultural works and generative AI changing the way cultural products are created [1]. - However, challenges remain, such as the lack of high-quality Chinese cultural materials, as many large models primarily rely on internet content, which may not adequately represent the richness of Chinese cultural classics [1].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Railway Bureau has introduced 13 new ticket products for the Hangzhou-Wenzhou and Huzhou-Suzhou high-speed railways to meet diverse travel needs, featuring "tiered discounts and flexible choices" [2] - The new ticket products include regular tickets and counted tickets, with various options tailored for different commuting needs [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce of China aims to expand imports of high-quality Finnish products and technologies, enhancing cooperation in digital economy and green transformation [3] - This year marks the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Finland, emphasizing the importance of policy communication and practical cooperation [3] Group 3 - Fengqiao Capital announced that its RMB Phase I fund will no longer hold any shares of Pop Mart, having sold all pre-IPO shares through block trading [6] Group 4 - Huawei clarified that it has not engaged in any form of internship cooperation with third parties, addressing recent scams involving fake internship offers [9] Group 5 - Li Xiang, CEO of Li Auto, was reported to have a salary of 639 million yuan, which was clarified to be 2.66 million yuan, with the remainder being a contingent stock option incentive based on company performance [18][19]