Price Trends - The Business Price Index (BPI) reached a one-year high of 956 points as of January 30, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.3% compared to December 2022[3] - The energy index increased by 1.5% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous index surged by 21.7%[4] - The geopolitical threat index averaged 242.0 points, marking a month-on-month rise of 66.3%, the highest since March 2020[3] Commodity Prices - In the commodity price rankings for the week of January 26-30, 15 non-ferrous products saw price increases, with 8 of them rising over 5%, accounting for 36.4% of the monitored products[4] - Notable price increases included neodymium metal (11.14%), praseodymium oxide (10.07%), and neodymium oxide (9.69%)[4] - The South China Comprehensive Index rose by 8.6% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% compared to 3.0% in December[5] Real Estate Market - The second-hand housing price index for major cities showed mixed results, with Beijing and Guangzhou experiencing a narrowing decline of -0.5% and -1.0% respectively, while Shenzhen saw a slight increase of 0.4%[5] - The average listing prices for second-hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen were 143.1, 180.3, 153.8, and 222.1 respectively, with varying month-on-month changes[5] Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) increased by 10.3% month-on-month, driven by rising prices in battery cells and silicon wafers[7] - Lithium carbonate futures prices surged by 27.6% month-on-month, while the DRAM industry composite index (DXI) rose by 25.8%, reaching a historical high[7] Logistics and Transportation - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) increased by 2.5% month-on-month, with the Shanghai-Los Angeles and Shanghai-New York indices recording changes of 2.6% and -3.4% respectively[8] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rebounded by 14.4% month-on-month, following a decline of -26.7% in December[9] Food Prices - The average wholesale price of pork rose by 5.8% month-on-month, while the prices of 28 key vegetables fell by 0.2%[10] - The non-food price index (ICPI) recorded a slight decrease of -0.07% month-on-month, with transportation and communication services showing the highest increases[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, in the domestic market, as the Spring Festival approaches and the purchasing efforts of the China Grain Reserves Corporation increase, the selling sentiment of farmers in the Northeast production area has improved, and some farmers and traders are actively involved in the grain - trading process. Deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast have low inventories and are increasing prices to stock up. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the arrival volume at enterprise gates is low. Although the market supply has increased slightly, due to processing losses and product inventory backlogs, enterprises' purchasing attitudes are cautious, and purchase prices are slightly adjusted. The corn futures market is supported by strong spot prices and is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2]. - For corn starch, as of January 14, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises in China is 110000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 25000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 2.22%, and a year - on - year increase of 21.48%. The overall supply pressure still exists. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for starch in downstream industries such as starch sugar and paper - making has increased. The impact of pre - Spring Festival downstream stocking on corn starch prices should be monitored. The starch futures market is boosted by the strong performance of corn and is expected to be observed in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of corn starch futures is 2550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 19 yuan/ton, and the corn starch monthly spread (3 - 5) is - 36 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [2]. - The futures trading volume of the active contract of yellow corn is 1055982 lots, with a decrease of 17234 lots; the futures trading volume of the active contract of corn starch is 200527 lots, with an increase of 4084 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of corn are - 143698 lots, and those of corn starch are - 40964 lots, with an increase of 946 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 51272 lots, and those of corn starch are 12477 lots, with no change [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 325 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 425 cents/bushel, and the total position of CBOT corn is 1613386 contracts, with an increase of 75658 contracts [2]. - The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 93535 contracts, with a decrease of 33423 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2369.41 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2570 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The fob price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2330 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 2750 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2074.24 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 3.07 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang is 2730 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The international freight of imported corn is 45 US dollars/ton, with no change; the basis of the main contract of corn starch is 15 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the main contract of corn is 89.41 yuan/ton, and the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 444 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The average spot price of wheat is 2525.67 yuan/ton, and the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 597 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 29 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 201 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the United States is 425.53 million hectares, and the predicted output is 36.44 million tons, with an increase of 0.55 million tons [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in Brazil is 131 million hectares, and the predicted output is 22.6 million tons [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in Argentina is 53 million hectares, and the predicted output is 7.5 million tons [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in China is 295 million hectares, and the predicted output is 44.3 million tons [2]. - The predicted output of corn in Ukraine is 32 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports is 76.1 million tons, with a decrease of 1.1 million tons; the inventory of deep - processed corn is 359 million tons, with an increase of 5 million tons [2]. - The corn inventory in northern ports is 156 million tons, with a decrease of 19 million tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 110 million tons, with a decrease of 2.5 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 36 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 19170 tons, with an increase of 6390 tons [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 2977.9 million tons [2]. - The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 18 yuan/ton, with no change; in Hebei, it is 72 yuan/ton, with no change; in Jilin, it is - 53 yuan/ton, with an increase of 7 yuan/ton [2][3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of sample feed corn are 31.15 days, with an increase of 1.05 days [2]. - The consumption of deep - processed corn is 135.59 million tons, with a decrease of 2.58 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 58.02%, with a decrease of 4.02%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 57.65%, with a decrease of 1.72% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 10.94%, with a decrease of 0.47%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.49%, with no change [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.74%, with a decrease of 0.93%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.74%, with a decrease of 1.09% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of January 15, the harvesting progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season reached 1.6%, higher than 0.5% in the previous week but lower than 4.1% in the same period last year [2]. - As of January 15, the sown area of the second - season corn in Brazil in the 2025/26 season reached 1.1% of the expected area, up from 0.2% a week ago. The sowing progress in Mato Grosso is leading, followed by Paraná [2]. - The USDA monthly supply - demand report shows that the yield per acre of US corn in the 2025/26 season has been raised from 186 bushels/acre to 186.5 bushels/acre, and the output forecast has been raised to 17.021 billion bushels, which is higher than the upper limit of analysts' forecast ranges. The report is overall bearish, causing a significant decline in US corn prices [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of the BPI index in November, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing narratives in various industries, particularly in metals and commodities [1][4]. Group 1: BPI Index and Commodity Prices - The BPI index recorded 878 points as of November 28, reflecting a 1.0% increase compared to the end of October, with energy and non-ferrous indices rising by 0.4% and 2.7% respectively [1][4][5]. - In November, the pricing of bulk commodities showed mixed results, with thermal coal and glass futures prices increasing by 7.0% and 7.6% month-on-month, while rebar futures fell by 0.6% [9][11]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The housing prices in four major cities continued to adjust, with the second-hand housing price index decreasing by 0.7% to 1.5% compared to the last week of October [11]. Group 3: Emerging Manufacturing Prices - Prices for upstream materials in emerging manufacturing sectors, such as storage chips and lithium carbonate, remained strong, while the photovoltaic industry saw a decline, with the SPI index dropping by 2.6% [2][12]. - The DXI index for the DRAM memory industry rose by 70.7%, and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices surged by 67.4% month-on-month [2][12]. Group 4: Shipping and Logistics - In the shipping sector, the CCFI index increased by 9.8%, while the WCID indices for routes to Los Angeles and New York fell by 14.3% and 23.3% respectively [14]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 30.2%, indicating a recovery in dry bulk shipping rates [14]. Group 5: Food Prices - Food prices generally increased, with the average wholesale price of pork rising by 0.2% and key vegetable prices increasing by 1.8% [17].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price changes of various commodities on October 29, 2025, compared to October 28, 2025, including chemicals, agricultural products, and more. It also covers macro - economic news and provides trading strategies for different commodities and financial products based on their fundamentals and market trends [4]. - Macroeconomic news shows positive developments in China - ASEAN cooperation, potential progress in Sino - EU trade talks, and China's stance on financial opening - up and economic policies. The performance of the A - share market and international stock markets is also analyzed [7][8][20][21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Commodity Price Changes - **Chemicals**: On October 29, 2025, among chemicals, glass had the highest increase rate of 1.348% (from 1,113.00 to 1,128.00), while crude oil had the largest decline rate of - 0.994% (from 462.70 to 458.10) [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, soybean meal had the highest increase rate of 0.538% (from 2,975.00 to 2,991.00), and palm oil had the largest decline rate of - 1.496% (from 8,958.00 to 8,824.00) [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic News - China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol, expanding cooperation in emerging fields [7]. - There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths, and China hopes for dialogue to solve trade differences [7]. - China is committed to financial opening - up, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - The revised Network Security Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, and the Environmental Protection Tax Law will include volatile organic compounds in the tax scope [8]. - The number of overseas travelers for tax - free shopping and the tax - free amount in China have increased significantly this year [8]. - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held from November 5th to 10th, with an expanded scale [8]. - China's soybean area and output are expected to remain high, and the number of breeding sows has decreased [8]. - China's wholesale and retail industries have shown growth in the first three quarters [8]. - The 2025 Hurun Rich List was announced, with Zhong Shanshan becoming the richest man in China [9]. 3.3 Commodity Trading Strategies - **Agricultural Products** - **Peanuts**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 7700 - 7900, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Sugar**: Consider selling call options at high prices, with a support level at 5450 yuan/ton [13]. - **Corn**: Observe the support in the 2100 - 2120 range [14]. - **Pigs**: The near - term futures are expected to be strong, and the long - term futures will remain weak [14]. - **Eggs**: Short - sell on the futures and conduct inter - month reverse arbitrage [16]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see, and consider going long if it breaks through 13600 yuan/ton [16]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Urea**: The UR2601 contract is expected to operate in the 1580 - 1670 yuan/ton range [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: The 2601 contract is under pressure [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are expected to remain strong, with coking coal facing pressure around 1300 and coke around 1800 [16]. - **Industrial Metals** - **Copper and Aluminum**: Prices are expected to remain high, but beware of macro - risks [17]. - **Alumina**: The 2601 contract is operating at a low level [17]. - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with rebar facing pressure around 3200 and hot - rolled coils around 3400 [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: They will maintain a wide - range fluctuating follow - up trend, and the industrial rebound hedging idea remains unchanged [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Adopt a bullish strategy, with a support level at 80000 and a pressure level at 84000 [19]. - **Options and Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: Trend investors can focus on inter - variety spread arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide straddles after the HO volatility decline [19]. - **Stock Index**: Although the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points, there is still a need for consolidation. Pay attention to the performance of the third - quarter reports of listed companies [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The overall price signals in July show improvement, with upstream raw materials and some new industry products experiencing upward trends, indicating a positive cycle for enterprises' inventory replenishment [17] Group 1: Industrial Raw Material Prices - The BPI industrial raw material price index slightly rebounded in July, recording 869 points, a 1.4% increase compared to the end of June. Energy and non-ferrous metal prices increased by 0.1% and 3.1% month-on-month, respectively [1][4][5] - The domestic pricing of upstream commodities saw widespread increases, with rebar, coking coal, and glass futures prices rising significantly by 6.9%, 11.3%, and 21.3% month-on-month, respectively [7][8] Group 2: Real Estate Market - The trend of housing price adjustments continues, with only Shanghai's second-hand housing prices stabilizing slightly for two consecutive months, while other major cities saw declines. The second-hand housing price index for four major cities decreased by -0.9%, 0.1%, -1.1%, and -1.3% compared to the last week of June [10] Group 3: Emerging Industries - The emerging industry chain prices have rebounded from the bottom, with the photovoltaic industry composite index recording the largest monthly increase since 2021, rising by 18.9% month-on-month. The prices of carbon lithium and polysilicon futures also increased [11] Group 4: Downstream Prices - Downstream prices remain weak, with the Linyi Mall price index slightly declining by 0.27% compared to the end of June. Prices for daily necessities, clothing, and home appliances decreased, while hardware prices remained stable [12] Group 5: Food Prices - Food prices showed mixed trends, with pork and vegetable prices rising. The average wholesale price of pork increased by 1.2% month-on-month, while the prices of 28 key vegetables rose by 1.4% [16]